2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview:

Better times ahead?

Diana Diquez, Sr. Market Analyst
Thomson Reuters LPC

July 16, 2009

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Webinar overview -
2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
• What were the biggest changes?
• Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes
• Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
• Non-sponsored issuance is up
• Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals
• Ancillary business remains very important
• Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
• A few deals get done – volume slightly up
• Many obstacles remain
• Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
• 51% amendments rule
• Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
2
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Market Survey -
What was the biggest change in the middle market in
2Q09?

– Market stabilized; no longer frozen

– Some sense of liquidity

– Higher pricing, but some pockets of competitive pricing

emerged in the non-sponsored market

– Amends and extends show up in the middle market

– Weak economic conditions – lack of financial visibility

– Secondary market rally

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 3

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Traditional middle market bids currently in 77-78

context
Traditional MM & SMi100 bids

100
95
90
85
Price (% of par)

80
75 Traditional MM
70 SMi100

65
60
7/27/2007
8/21/2007
9/15/2007

1/18/2008
2/12/2008

4/27/2008
5/22/2008
6/16/2008
7/11/2008
8/30/2008
9/24/2008

1/27/2009
2/21/2009
3/18/2009
4/12/2009

6/26/2009
7/2/2007

3/8/2008
4/2/2008

8/5/2008

1/2/2009

5/7/2009
6/1/2009
10/10/2007
11/4/2007
11/29/2007
12/24/2007

10/19/2008
11/13/2008
12/8/2008

Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100M

Source: LSTA/LPC Mark-to-Market Pricing
4
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Market Survey -
How much time did you spend analyzing opportunities in
the secondary market in 2Q09?

60%

50%
% of respondents

40% 35% 35%

30%
18%
20%
12%
10%

0%
Majority of time as Modest amount of Very little time as No time as our
primary issuance time as select more focused on strategy is to buy
has been quiet opportunities amendments, and hold to
arise restructurings and maturity
new deals

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 5

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2Q09 Middle market issuance up relative to 1Q

Middle Market Loan Issuance
60
New Money
(beg. 2Q03)
50 • 2Q09 loan issuance
– $17.6 billion
40
– Up 74% from 1Q09
Issuance ($ Bils.)

30 – Down 40% from 2Q08

20
• New money
10 – $6.32 billion
– Up 67% from 1Q09
0
– Down 67% from 2Q08
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Middle Market definition:
1) Borrower sales size $500 million or less;
2) Deal Size $500 million or less
3) See additional exclusionary criteria in Guidelines
on LoanConnector

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 6

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Comparison to the overall market

700 70
Overall Syn. Loan Issuance ($ Bils.)

Overall U.S.

Middle Market Issuance ($ Bils.)

600 Middle Market 60
Year-over-year
500 50 – Middle market drops 40%
– Overall market drops 37%
400 40

300 30
Quarter-over-quarter
200 20 – Middle market up 74%
– Overall market up 37%
100 10

0 0
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 7

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Middle market issuance breakout

45
40
Large
35
Traditional
Issuance ($ Bils.)

30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100
Large MM - Deal size >$100 Mil. to $500 Mil.
For all: Borrower sales <$500 Mil.
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 8
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Market Survey-
Were you able to lend as much as you wanted to in 2Q09?

Below goals by
>15%
Somewhat 28%
• 61% of lenders fell below
below goals
33% goals
• 39% met goals

Met goals
39%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

9
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Market Survey -
What were the biggest obstacles to getting middle market
deals done in 2Q09?

– Ancillary business requirements

– Relatively limited deal flow; lack of quality
opportunities
– Lack of M&A activity
– High costs prevented issuers from coming to market
– Limited liquidity

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 10

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Market Survey -
Lending capacity in the middle market
How much did lending capacity shrink What happened to lending capacity in
in 1Q09? 2Q09, relative to 1Q09?

[more than
75% ] Increased
27% [less than 25% ] [< 10%]
33% 26%

Unchanged
48%

[50 - 75% ]
Increased
13% [25 - 50% ]
[10-25%]
27% 26%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 11

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Bookrunner volume at very low levels; ranks shift

1H09 1H07 (pre-mergers)

CIT Group

Golub Capital

SunTrust

BNP

BMO

KeyBank

Mitsubishi UFJ

GECC

U.S. Bancorp

JPM (incl. Bear Stearns)

Wells (incl. Wachovia)

PNC (incl. National city)

Bank of America ML

- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00
Bookrunner vol ($Bils)

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 12

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Webinar overview -
2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
• What were the biggest changes?
• Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes
• Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
• Non-sponsored issuance is up
• Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals
• Ancillary business remains very important
• Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
• A few deals get done – volume slightly up
• Many obstacles remain
• Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
• 51% amendments rule
• Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
13
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Non-sponsored lending gets selective

Non-sponsored Issuance Percentage change in issuance y-o-y
40
80%
35
60%
30

Year-over-year change (%)

40%
25
Issuance ($ Bils.)

20%
20
x` 0%
15

-20%
10

5 -40%

0 -60%
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 14

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Market Survey –
In 2009, are you allocating more or less capital for
middle market loans than in 2008?
2009 Capital allocation change relative to previous year

70%
60%
% of respondents

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
(<30%) (20-30%) (10-20%) (0-10%) 0-10% 10-20% 20-30% >30%

Percentage change

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey

15
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Market Survey –
Rank in order of importance the following factors you
consider when committing to a new deal
Non-Sponsored Respondents
% % % % % %
Factor Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
Credit
quality
73% 18% 9% - - -

Industry 18% 9% 9% 9% 46% 9%

Structure - 64% 18% 9% 9% -

Ancillary
business
9% 9% 37% 27% 18% -
Size of
company
- - - - 9% 91%

Yield - - 27% 55% 18% -

Credit quality, structure and ancillary business are the top three factors for non-
sponsored lenders
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey
16
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Market Survey –
Lenders’ reduced tolerance for leverage revealed
Senior Debt to EBITDA Total Debt to EBITDA

80% 2007 2008 2009 90% 2007 2008 2009

70% 80%
Percent of Respondents

Percent of Respondents
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0% 0%
<1.5x 1.5x - 2x 2x - 2.5x 2.5x - 3x >3x 2.5x - 3x 3x - 4x > 4x
Min. acceptable total debt to EBITDA
Min. acceptable sr. debt to EBITDA

• Non-sponsored leverage tolerance levels continue to decline

• Majority of lenders focused on non-sponsored want senior leverage under
2.5x and total leverage under 4x

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey 17

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Non-sponsored market: spreads high in 2009

Non-Sponsored non-M&A Revolvers
300

250
LIB+ (bps)

200

150

Large
Traditional

100
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
18
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Listener survey question…

(Live Poll)

Relative to 1H09, spreads in the non-

sponsored market in 2H09 will ...
‰ Go up more than 10%
‰ Go down more than 10%
‰ Remain relatively unchanged

19
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Market Survey -
Do you think that 2H09 pricing will increase or
decrease relative to 1H09 pricing?
Majority expect spreads to increase

70%
60%
% of respondents

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
(<30%) (20-30%) (10-20%) (0-10%) 0-10% 10-20% 20-30% >30%

Percentage change

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey

20
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Middle market sees shorter maturities

Avg. Maturity – Multi-Year Revolvers Trad. MM tenor dispersion: multi-year RCs

70
70%
Avg. Maturity - number of months

Large MM
Trad MM 60%
60
2007
50% 2008
50

% of facilities
1H09
40%

40 30%

20%
30
10%

20 0%
1H 09
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1 to <2 2 to <3 3 to <4 4 to <5 >=5

Number of years

• Average maturities for multi-year revolvers decline significantly

• More than a third of traditional MM revolvers are 3-4 years
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 21
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Webinar overview -
2Q09 review & 3Q09 preview: Better times ahead?
2Q09 sees some stability
• What were the biggest changes?
• Secondary market rallies; middle market stabilizes
• Issuance recovers from 1Q levels
Non-sponsored lending up
• Non-sponsored issuance is up
• Banks lend selectively – look for high quality deals
• Ancillary business remains very important
• Spreads are up – but some deals get done at aggressive levels
Sponsored issuance shows slight signs of life
• A few deals get done – volume slightly up
• Many obstacles remain
• Balancing act between banks and reduced investor base
Amendments take center stage
• 51% amendments rule
• Issuers see spread increases in return for more flexibility
Are better times ahead?
22
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Sponsored issuance up from 1Q levels

25

20 Other
LBO

15
Issuance ($ Bils.)

10

0
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 23
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Market Survey-
Min. acceptable levels for equity contributions in
sponsored transactions

Min. acceptable equity contributions

Share of lenders who

prefer equity
Greater
than 50% [20-30% ]
contributions of at
8% 11% least >40%

[30-40% ] • 2002 – 16%

22%
• 2007 – None
• 2Q09 – 67%
[40-50% ]
59%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 24

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Market Survey –
Rank in order of importance the following factors you
consider when committing to a new deal
Sponsored Respondents
% % % % % %
Factor Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked Ranked
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
Credit
quality
87% 14% - - - -

Industry - - - 71% 29% -

Structure 13% 57% 29% - - -

Ancillary
business
- - - - - 100%
Size of
company
- - - 29% 71% -

Yield - 29% 71% - - -

Credit quality, structure and yield are the top three factors for sponsored lenders

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

25
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Although improved from last quarter, institutional

issuance is still well below historical levels
Institutional Volume % of Total Sponsored Volume
20 80%
MM Institutional Issuance ($ Bils.)

18 70%
16
60%
14
12 50%

10 40%
8 30%
6
20%
4
2 10%

0 0%
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
4Q06
2Q07
4Q07
2Q08
4Q08
2Q09
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 26
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Market survey-
Minimum spread and libor floor required to get a term
loan done in the middle market

Min. LIB Spread Min. LIB Floor

100% 100%
LIB+ > 700 > 3%

2-3%
LIB+ 600-700
80% 80%
1-2%
% of Respondents

LIB+ 500-600
0-1%
60% LIB+ < 500 60%

40% 40%

20% 20%

0% 0%
Banks Non-Banks Banks Non-Banks

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey

27
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What is your minimum yield requirement?

60%

50%
Banks
% of respondents

Non-Banks
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
< 7.5% 7.5 - 8.5% 8.5 - 9.5% 9.5 - 10.5% > 10.5%

Total yield

• Assumptions: OID of 97, 4 years to maturity, Libor floor included, otherwise 3-month Libor of .65%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 28

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Term loan spreads and yields

Term loan spreads
Term loan yields (4-year-term to repayment)
1050
Spread due to OID
950 14% Contractual spread
LIB Floor
Avg. TL B Spread (bps)

Traditional MM 12%
850
Large MM
10%
750

8%

Yield (%)
650

6%
550
4%
450
2%
350
0%

RepconStrickland

TNS

Church's Chicken
Pharmanet

Travelport
250

Local Insight

Anchor Glass
Transport
Venture
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05

4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08*
2Q08*
3Q08*
4Q08*
1Q09*
2Q09*
3Q05

*Discounted spread on loans (assuming a 4-year –term to repayment)

including OID
Traditional MM – Deal size <=$100M
Large MM - Deal size >$100M to $500M 2Q08 2Q09
For all: Borrower sales <$500M
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 29
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LBO loan size continues to fall

180
160
140
Avg. LBO loan size ($ Mils.)

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

1H09
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
30
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M&A issuance almost non-existent

Sponsored M&A Issuance Non-Sponsored M&A Issuance

16 8

14 7
M&A issuance ($ Bils.)

M&A issuance ($ Bils.)

12 6

10 5

8 4

6 3

4 2

2 1

0 0
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
1Q00

1Q01

1Q02

1Q03

1Q04

1Q05

1Q06

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC

31
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Amendments take center stage in 1H09

Amends &
Extends
1% 100% vote
Loan amendments
Issuance 23%
(excluding
Amendments)
28%

51% vote
amendments
48%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 32

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Market Survey –
Spread increase due to financial covenant
amendment
Non Sponsored Sponsored

50%
45%
% of Respondents

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 - 100 100 - 200 200 - 300
Spread (bps)

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Annual MM Survey

33
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Amendment spread increases: Sponsored vs. Non-

sponsored

45%
40% Sponsored
% of Revolvers

35% Non Sponsored

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 - 100 100 - 200 - > 300
200 300
Spread Increase bucket (bps)
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC
34
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Listener survey question…

(Live Poll)

What will drive issuance in 3Q?

‰ M&A/LBO
‰ Capex spending/Corporate purposes
‰ DIPs
‰ Amendments
‰ Refis/Repricings
‰ Exit financings

35
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Market Survey –
What will drive the bulk of mid-market loan activity in 3Q09?

Refis
40%

Amendments
55%

M&A/LBO
5%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey

36
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Upcoming middle market loan maturities

Maturing volume ($Bils.)

45
40 Traditional Large

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 37
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Upcoming middle market loan maturities

Sponsored and non-sponsored Institutional
45 18

40 Sponsored 16
Non Spons
Maturing volume ($Bils.)

Maturing volume ($Bils.)

35 14

30 12

25 10

20 8
x`

15 6

10 4

5 2

0 0
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15

3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
• 74% of upcoming maturities • $127 billion in institutional
are non-sponsored tranches is coming due in next 3
years
Source: Thomson Reuters LPC 38
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Market Survey –
What will happen with all the MM maturities
approaching in the next 3 to 4 years?

60%

50%

40%
% of respondents

30%

20%

10%

0%
Majority Amends and Solution hard HY Issuance Strategic
refinanced at extends will to find, defaults will reach MM buyers will
higher spreads become names acquire
popular

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 39

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Market Survey -
What are your expectations for issuance in 3Q09?
Moderate
decrease ( 5
to 15%)
5%

Significant
increase
(>15%)
11%
Remain flat
16%

Moderate
Increase (5 to
15%)
68%

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 40

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Market Survey -
What will be the most important issue in middle market
lending in 3Q09?

– Economic outlook
– Increasing default rates
– Liquidity is still constrained
– Lack of new deal flow – beginning of the “summer doldrums”
– Existing portfolio performance
– Do buyer and seller expectations meet? What happens to purchase price
multiples?
– Sustainability of high-yield rally
– Uncertain outcomes for M&A processes

Source: Thomson Reuters LPC Quarterly MM Survey 41

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Thank you for participating in today’s webinar:

U.S. MIDDLE MARKET:

2Q09 Review and 3Q09 Preview:

Better times ahead?
Presenter: Diana Diquez, Senior Market Analyst
Date: Thursday, July 16, 2009
Time: 11 AM Eastern Standard Time
Duration: 1 hr [includes Q&A session]

If you have any follow-up questions please e-mail us at lpc.info@reuters.com with “Middle
Market” in the subject line

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