Stat 315 - Homework 2 - Solution

Due on Monday June 1, 2009

Chapter 2
2-9.

S B : purchase stock or bonds, or both. S B : purchase stock and bonds.

2-19.

a. The two events are mutually exclusive.

b. Let 0, D be the events: machine is out-of-control, down (respectively). Then we
need P(O D) = P(O) + P(D) P(O D) = 0.02 + 0.015 - 0 = 0.035

P(D ) = I P(D) = I 0.015 = 0.985 . This event and D are mutually exclusive.

c.

2-32.

61.1% successfully completed. Given that P(A | H) = 0.94 and P(H) = 0.65,
P(A H) = P(A | H) P(H) = (.94)(.65) = 0.611

2-42.

(Use template: Probability of at least 1.xls)

Probability of at least one success from many independent trials.
Success Probs
1
2
3

Prob. of at least one success 0.9900

0.9
0.75
0.6

2-52.

(55)(30)(21)(13) = 450,450 sets of representatives

2-61.

Let A,S be the events: the drug is approved, the drug has side effects.
P(A | S) = 0.5 P(A | S ) = 0.95

P(S) = 0.20 P( S ) = 0.8

P(A) = P(A | S)P(S) + P(A | S )P( S ) = (.5)(.2) + (.95)(.80) = 0.86

2-64.

Let F,A be the events: ships sail full this summer, dollar appreciates against European currencies.
P(F | A) = 0.75

P ( F | A = 0.92 P(A) = 0.23

P(F) = P(F | A)P(A) + P(F | A)P(A) = (.75)(.23) + (.92)(.77) = 0.8809

2-65.

Let O,G be the events: door should open, green light appears.
P(O) = 0.9 P(G | O) = 0.98

P(G | O ) = 0.05

P(G | O) P(O)

(.98)(.9)

P(O | G) =

=
P(G | O) P(O) + P(G | O )P(O)

(.98)(.9) + (.05)(.1)

= 0.9944

2-66.

Let S,E be the events: the alarm sounds, there is an emergency situation.
P(E) = 0.004

P(S | E) = 0.95 P(S | E) = 0.02

P(S | E) P(E)

P(E | S) =

(.95)(.004)
=

P(S | E) P(E) + P(S | E)P(E)

(.95)(.004) + (.02)(.996)

= 0.1602

2-67.

Let I,H,M,L be the events: indicator rises, economic situation is high, medium, low.
P(I | H) = 0.6 P(I | M) = 0.3 P(I | L) = 0.1 P(H) = 0.15 P(M) = 0.7 P(L) = 0.15
P(I | H) P(H)

(.6)(.15)

P(H | I) =

=
P(I | H) P(H) + P(I |M) P(M) + P(I | L) P(L)

(.6)(.15)+ (.3)(.7)+ (.1)(.15)

= 0.2857

2-68.

Let I,O be the events: test indicates oil, oil really is present
P(O) = 0.4

P(I | O) = 0.85

P(I | O) = 0.10

P(I | O) P(O)
P(O | I) =

(.85)(.4)
=

P(I | O) P(O) + P(I | O)P(O )

(.85)(.4) + (.10)(.6)

= 0.85

2-69.

Let I,S be the events: test indicates success, product really is successful.
P(S) = 0.6

P(I | S) = 0.75

P(I | S ) = 0.15

P(I | S) P(S)
P(S | I) =

(.75)(.6)
=

P(I | S) P(S) + P(I | S )P( S )

(.75)(.6) + (.15)(.4)

= 0.8824
2-78.

Let P, I be the events: production increases, interest rates decline more than half a point.
P(P | I) = 0.72 P(I) = 0.25
P(P I) = P(P | I ) P(I) = (.72)(.25) = 0.18

2-86.

Let S, F, N, U be the events: subsidiary will be successful, political situation is favorable, neutral,
unfavorable.
P(S | F) = 0.55 P(S / N) = 0.3 P(S / U) = 0.1
P(F) = 0.6 P(N) = 0.2 P(U) = 0.2
P(S) = P(S | F) P(F) + P(S | N) P(N) + P(S | U)P(U)
= (0.55)(0.6) + (0.3)(0.2) + (0.1)(0.2) = 0.41

Chapter 3
3.8. a.

P( x) = 1.0

b. 0.85, found by summing the probabilities for 0.75 0.78:

P(0.75) + P(0.76) + P(0.77) + P(0.78) = 0.25 + 0.40 + 0.15 + 0.05 = 0.85
c. 0.80 found by: 1 P(0.77) P(0.78) = 1 0.15 0.05 = 0.80
d. 0.36 found by: P(price >0.75) = P(0.76) + P(0.77) + P(0.78) = 0.40 + 0.15 + 0.05 = 0.60
for the price to be above 0.75 for two days in a row: (0.60)2 = 0.36

3.32. Using the Binomial Template, we get the following answers:

a) 0.5769
b) I) 27
ii) 37
iii) 0.9576

3.68.

a.

P( x) = 1.00

b.

x
F(x)
0
0.10
1
0.30
2
0.60
3
0.75
4
0.90
5
0.95
6
1.00
c. P(2 < X < 5) = F(5) F(2) = .95 .6 = 0.35
P(3 < X < 6) = F(6) F(2) = 1 0.6 = 0.40
P(X > 4) = 1 F(4) = 1 0.9 = 0.1
b. P(4 or 5 orders) = P(4) + P(5) = 0.2
c. By independence: P(3) x P(3) = (.15)2 = 0.0225
d. E(X) = 2.4 E(X 2) = 8.2 V(X) = 2.44 SD(X) = 1.562

3.69.

a. Y is binomial: the number of successesno ordersin n = 52 trials, where p = 0.10 and

trials are independent.
b. E(Y) = np = 52(.10) = 5.2