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I
15
A K
12 F 6
10
Finish
Start C G
10 35
J
B D H
4
10 40
E
24
Figure 27.1 AON Network for the Metro Hospital Project showing activity times
However, Figure 27.1 indicates that some activities can be carried
on simultaneously given adequate resources. Each sequence of
activities between the project’s start and finish is called a path.
The network describing the hospital relocation project has five
paths: A-I-K, A-F-K, A-C-G-J-K, B-D-H-J-K, and B-E-J-K. The
critical path is the sequence of activities between a project’s start
and finish that takes the longest time to complete. Thus, the
activities along the critical path determine the completion time of
the project; that is, if one of the activities on the critical path is
delayed, the entire project will be delayed. The estimated times for
the paths in the hospital project network are
Path Estimated
Time (wk)
A-F-K 28
A-I-K 33
A-C-G-J-K 67
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43
In the case of PERT, once the expected time of the activities are
obtained, the critical path of the project network is determined
using these time estimates. Having found the critical path, the pert
methodology assumes that the aggregation of the mean times and
the summation of the variances of critical jobs would yield the
project duration expected and its variance. Using Central Limit
Theorem which states that the sum of several independent activity
durations will tend to be normally distributed, with a mean equal to
the sum of their individual job times and the variance equal to the
sum of their individual activity variances. Accordingly, the
probability distribution of times for completing a project can be
approximated by using a normal distribution curve which becomes
more exact as the number of activities increases. Estimates using
the curve can be fairly exact if and when there are at least 30
activities along a given path.
If for a given project, if the critical activities are 1, 2, ……, k, we
have,
Te = te1 + te2 + te3 + …… + tek, and
VT or σT2 = σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + ……. + σk2
The distribution of the project completion times is then, normally
distributed with µ = Te and σT This can be used to determine the
probability of completing the project by a given date, or during a
given time interval.
Let us take an example now.
Example The owner of a chain of fast-food restaurants is
considering a new computer system for accounting and inventory
control. A computer company sent the following information about
the system installation
Activity Activity Description Immediate Most Most Likely Most
Identificati Predecessor Optimistic Time Pessimisti
on Time c Time
A Select the computer model - 4 6 8
B Design input/output system A 5 7 15
C Design monitoring system A 4 8 12
D Assemble computer hardware B 15 20 25
E Develop the main programs B 10 18 26
F Develop input/output routines C 8 9 16
G Create data base E 4 8 12
H Install the system D, F 1 2 3
I Test and implement G, H 6 7 8
A 4 6 8 6 4/6 4/9
B 5 7 15 8 10/6 25/9
C 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
D 15 20 25 20 10/6 25/9
E 10 18 26 18 16/6 64/9
F 8 9 16 10 8/6 16/9
G 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
H 1 2 3 2 2/6 1/9
I 6 7 8 7 2/6 1/9
Using the expected time of activity duration, we obtain the critical
path as 1-2-3-5-7-8. Thus, we have the expected project length,
Te = 6 + 8 + 18 + 8 + 7 = 47 days,
We have,
Z – (55 – 47)/3.496 = 2.89
From the normal area table, the area between mean and z = 2.89
under the normal curve is found to be equal to 0.4981. Thus the
required probability = 0.5 + 0.4981 = 0.9981.
Fig. 27.5 Distribution of project duration
Points to ponder