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Unit 2

Management of Conversion System


Chapter 9: Project Scheduling
Lesson 27 – Scheduling Project
Learning Objectives

After reading this lesson you would be able to understand how to


Identify activity slack
Identify the critical activities and duration of the project
Find probability of completion of a project in a given time

A crucial aspect of project management is estimating the time of


completion. If each activity in relocating the hospital (considered
in the previous lesson) were done in sequence, with work
proceeding on only one activity at a time, the time of completion
would equal the sum f the times for all the activities.

I
15

A K
12 F 6
10

Finish
Start C G
10 35

J
B D H
4
10 40

E
24

Figure 27.1 AON Network for the Metro Hospital Project showing activity times
However, Figure 27.1 indicates that some activities can be carried
on simultaneously given adequate resources. Each sequence of
activities between the project’s start and finish is called a path.
The network describing the hospital relocation project has five
paths: A-I-K, A-F-K, A-C-G-J-K, B-D-H-J-K, and B-E-J-K. The
critical path is the sequence of activities between a project’s start
and finish that takes the longest time to complete. Thus, the
activities along the critical path determine the completion time of
the project; that is, if one of the activities on the critical path is
delayed, the entire project will be delayed. The estimated times for
the paths in the hospital project network are
Path Estimated
Time (wk)
A-F-K 28
A-I-K 33
A-C-G-J-K 67
B-D-H-J-K 69
B-E-J-K 43

The activity string B-D-H-J-K is estimated to take 69 weeks to


complete. As the longest, it constitutes the critical path and is
shown in bold in Figure 27.1.
Because the critical path defines the completion time of the
project, project team should focus on these activities. However,
projects can have more than one critical path.
Manually finding the critical path in this way is easy for small
projects; however, computer must be used for large projects.
Computers calculate activity slack and prepare periodic reports,
enabling managers to monitor progress. Activity slack is the
maximum length of time that an activity can be delayed without
delaying the entire project. Activities on the critical path have zero
slack. Constantly monitoring the progress of activities with little or
no slack enables managers to identify activities that need to be
expedited to keep the project on schedule. Activity slack is
calculated from four times for each activity: earliest start time,
earliest finish time, latest start time, and latest finish time.
Earliest start and finish time
The earliest start and finish times of an activity are based on the
condition that every activity will be started and finished as early as
possible. The earliest start and earliest finish times are obtained as
follows.
The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity equals its earliest start
time plus its estimated duration, t, or EF = ES + t.
The earliest start time (ES) for an activity is the earliest finish
time of the immediately preceding activity. For activities with
more than one preceding activity, ES is the latest of the earliest
finish times of the preceding activities.
To calculate the duration of the entire project, we determine the EF
for the last activity on the critical path.
Calculations of the earliest start and finish times for the activities
in the hospital project.
We begin at the start node at time zero. Because activities A and B
have no predecessors, the earliest start times for these activities are
also zero. The earliest finish times for these activities are
EFA = 0 + 12 = 12 and EFB = 0 + 9 = 9
Because the earliest start time for activities I, F, and C is the
earliest finish time of activity A,
ESI = 12, ESF = 12, ESC = 12
Similarly, ESD = 9 and ESE = 9
After placing these ES values on the network diagram as shown in
Figure 27.2, we determine the EF times for activities I, F, C, D,
and E;
EFI = 12 + 15 = 27, EFF = 12 + 10 = 22, EFC = 12 + 10 = 22
EFD = 9 + 10 = 19, and EFE = 9 + 24 = 33
The earliest start time for activity G is the latest EF time of all
immediately preceding activities. Thus,
ESG = EFC = 22, ESH = EFD = 19,
EFG = ESG + t = 22 + 35 = 57 ,
EFH = ESH + t = 19 + 40 = 59
Figure 27.2 Network for the Hospital Project, showing ES and EF
times

Latest Start and Latest Finish Times


To obtain the latest start and latest finish times, we must work
backward from the finish node. We start by setting the latest finish
time of the project equal to the earliest finish time of the last
activity on the critical path.
The latest finish time (LF) for an activity is the latest start time of
the activity immediately following it. For activities with more than
one activity immediately following, LF is the earliest of the latest
start times of those activities.
The latest start time (LS) for an activity equals its latest finish time
minus its estimated duration, t, or LS = LF – t.
Calculations of latest start and finish Times
For the same hospital project, the latest finish activity time of
activity K is 69th week. Thus the latest start time for activity K is
LSK = LFK – t = 69 – 6 = 63
If activity K is to start no later than week 63, all its predecessors
must finish no later than that time. Consequently,
LF1 = 63, LEF = 63, and LFj = 63
The latest start times for these activities are shown in Figure 27.3
as
LSI = 63 – 15 = 48, LSF = 63 – 10 = 53, and LSJ = 63 – 4 = 59
After obtaining LSJ, we can calculate the latest start times for the
immediate predecessors of activity J:
LSG = 59 – 35 = 24, LSH = 59 – 40 = 19, and LSE = 59 – 24 = 35
Similarly, we can now calculate latest start times for activities C
and D:
LSC = 24 – 10 = 14 and LSD = 19 – 10 = 9
Activity A has more than one immediately following activity – I,
F, and C. The earliest of the latest start times I 14 for activity C.
Thus,
LSA = 14 – 12 = 2
Similarly, activity B has two immediate followers, D and E.
Because the earliest of the latest start times of these activities is 9,
LSB = 9 – 9 = 0
Figure 27.3 Network for the hospital project, showing latest start and finish times

Determination of the float


For every critical activity in a network, the earliest start and the
latest start times are the same. Since the critical activities cannot be
scheduled later than their earliest schedule time, without delaying
the project duration, they do not exhibit any flexibility in
scheduling. However, while exercising control over time,
resources, or cost it is necessary to know as to what flexibility
exists for scheduling the non-critical activities of the project. The
flexibility is seen in terms of the float or slack that any activity has.
The critical activities of a project have no float.
There are four types of float that has identified. These are – total
float, interfering float, free float, and independent float.
The Total float of an activity represents the amount of time by
which it can be delayed without delaying the project completion
date. It is the difference between the total time available for the
performance of an activity and the time required for its
performance. It is calculated as
Total Float = latest finish time – earliest finish time
= latest start time – earliest start time
= LS – ES = LF – EF
The Interfering float is the part of the total float, which causes a
reduction in the float of the successor activities. It is the difference
between the latest finish time of the activity and the earliest
starting time of the following activity, or zero, whichever is larger.
The Free float is the part of the total float, which can be used
without affecting the float of the succeeding activities. It is
calculated as the earliest start time for the following activity minus
the earliest completion time for this activity.
The Independent float time of an activity is the amount of float
time, which can be used without affecting either the head or the tail
events. It represents the amount of float time available for an
activity when its preceding activities are completed at their latest
and its succeeding activities begin at their earliest time – leaving
the minimum time available for its performance. It is calculated as
Independent float = (earliest start time for the following activity) -
(latest finish time for the preceding activity) –
(duration of the present activity).
We will take an example to make this calculation clearer.
Table 27.1 Determination of Earliest and Latest times, and floats
Earliest Latest Float
Activity Start Finish Start Finish Total Interfering Free independent
Duration
i-j tij ES EF LS LF Ft Fint Ff Find
1-2 2 0 2 9 11 9 9 0 0
1-3 7 0 7 0 7 0 0 0 0
1-4 8 0 8 3 11 3 3 0 0
2-5 3 2 5 11 14 9 1 8 0
3-5 6 7 13 8 14 1 1 0 0
3-6 10 7 17 7 17 0 0 0 0
3-7 4 7 11 12 16 5 1 4 4
4-6 6 8 14 11 17 3 0 3 0
5-7 2 13 15 14 16 1 1 0 0
6-8 5 17 22 17 22 0 0 0 0
7-8 6 15 21 16 22 1 0 1 0

In the case of PERT, once the expected time of the activities are
obtained, the critical path of the project network is determined
using these time estimates. Having found the critical path, the pert
methodology assumes that the aggregation of the mean times and
the summation of the variances of critical jobs would yield the
project duration expected and its variance. Using Central Limit
Theorem which states that the sum of several independent activity
durations will tend to be normally distributed, with a mean equal to
the sum of their individual job times and the variance equal to the
sum of their individual activity variances. Accordingly, the
probability distribution of times for completing a project can be
approximated by using a normal distribution curve which becomes
more exact as the number of activities increases. Estimates using
the curve can be fairly exact if and when there are at least 30
activities along a given path.
If for a given project, if the critical activities are 1, 2, ……, k, we
have,
Te = te1 + te2 + te3 + …… + tek, and
VT or σT2 = σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + ……. + σk2
The distribution of the project completion times is then, normally
distributed with µ = Te and σT This can be used to determine the
probability of completing the project by a given date, or during a
given time interval.
Let us take an example now.
Example The owner of a chain of fast-food restaurants is
considering a new computer system for accounting and inventory
control. A computer company sent the following information about
the system installation
Activity Activity Description Immediate Most Most Likely Most
Identificati Predecessor Optimistic Time Pessimisti
on Time c Time
A Select the computer model - 4 6 8
B Design input/output system A 5 7 15
C Design monitoring system A 4 8 12
D Assemble computer hardware B 15 20 25
E Develop the main programs B 10 18 26
F Develop input/output routines C 8 9 16
G Create data base E 4 8 12
H Install the system D, F 1 2 3
I Test and implement G, H 6 7 8

First we construct the network diagram as shown below.

Fig 27.4 Network diagram

The calculation of expected time for each activity and variance is


shown in the following table

Activity Time a + 4m + b b−a σ2


te = σ=
a m b 6 6

A 4 6 8 6 4/6 4/9
B 5 7 15 8 10/6 25/9
C 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
D 15 20 25 20 10/6 25/9
E 10 18 26 18 16/6 64/9
F 8 9 16 10 8/6 16/9
G 4 8 12 8 8/6 16/9
H 1 2 3 2 2/6 1/9
I 6 7 8 7 2/6 1/9
Using the expected time of activity duration, we obtain the critical
path as 1-2-3-5-7-8. Thus, we have the expected project length,

Te = 6 + 8 + 18 + 8 + 7 = 47 days,

And the variance of the project length,

VT = 4/9 + 25/9 + 64/9 + 16/9 + 1/9 =110/9

Now, the project duration being normally distributed with mean


(Te) = 47 days and standard deviation σ = √Vt = √110/9 = 3.496
days, we can determine the probability of the project being
completed in 55 days. This would be equal to the area under the
normal curve lying to the left of X = 55, as shown in Figure 27.5.

We have,
Z – (55 – 47)/3.496 = 2.89

From the normal area table, the area between mean and z = 2.89
under the normal curve is found to be equal to 0.4981. Thus the
required probability = 0.5 + 0.4981 = 0.9981.
Fig. 27.5 Distribution of project duration

With that, we have come to the end of today’s discussions. I


hope it has been an enriching and satisfying experience.

Points to ponder

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