Early Project Estimations

What makes Software Project Estimation so difficult?

Customer Orientation Software Sizing
Cost of projects depends on its cost drivers. In software projects, a prominent cost driver is size of software. Functional size is measurable by different international standards, among them ISO/IEC 20926 (IFPUG) and ISO/ IEC 19761 (COSMIC). However, sizing requires a few things to know, among them Purpose of the project and its business goals Actors, stakeholders and involved organizations and data Environment and interfaces to other ICT systems

Lean Six Sigma

Requirements
Detailed requirements are not needed for sizing. In contrary, since size drives cost, the project estimations come prior to detailed requirements; they likely will depend upon the budget available. Before doing a detailed requirements analysis, sizing the project avoids spending effort on fancy dreams.

Sizing Method COSMIC the Common Software Measurement International Consortium Agile Processes
Sizing methods are based on a model of the intended software. While IFPUG focuses on input, output, queries, data stores and external interfaces, COSMIC focuses on data movements. The two methods are complementary, not competitive. Sometimes, both methods are applied.

Mobile Phone Caller

! Needs Certificate

SIM Card

Telecom

SIM Certificates

E
1. // Certificate exists? 2. // SIM Certificate

Process Metrics
No

Maintain Profile

W R X E

3. // Phone connected? 4. // Device ID

Yes

5. // Ask for the Subscriber ID

X E X E
8. // Telecom Clearance

Customer Identity Management

6. // Subscriber ID

7. // Ask Telecom for Confirmation

9. // Store, update or suspend certificate 10. // SIM Certificate X

Transfer Functions

Picture of a COSMIC Count visualization for a Telecom application, counting data movements

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Early Project Estimations

Customer Orientation Sizing Method IFPUG International Function Points User Group
The same project sized with IFPUG looks different; but sizing is equivalent. By comparing effort needed for implementing one Functional Size Unit (FSU) respectively, it takes 1 COSMIC FSU 3 IFPUG FSU. The IFPUG functional sizing method models Business Transactions:
Needs Certificate Telecom Clearance
EI
3/2

EI
2/1

Maintain Profile
EO
1/2

SIM Certificate
EO
3/2

Lean Six Sigma

EI = User or Device Input EO = Report, Output, Data to another application EQ = Data Query (not present here) ILF = Internal Data Store managed by application ELF = External Service of another application

EIF
1/2

SIM Card

EIF
1/1

ILF
1/3

Phone

SIM Certificates Boundary FSU=32

Sample IFPUG count showing the same Telecom application as before

Agile Processes

Macro and Micro Estimation

With the functional size (FSU), efforts can be predicted based on the ISBSG benchmarking database, collected from over 6000 ICT projects worldwide. Micro estimation breaks down the project into work items, adding provisions for risks, bug fixes, and change requests.

Process Metrics

Macro
FSU

Analogy based on Cost Drivers

Similar Projects

Identify Business Drivers Identify Work Items Assess Risks Plan for Quality

Customer Identity Management

Micro
Parameterization Transfer Functions

Finalize Plan

While both macro and micro estimation needs significant skills investments, Euro Project Office also offers tools that do macro estimations based on domain knowledge base parameters. That places macro estimations and benchmarks at everyone's fingertips; needing an investment in tool training only.

Euro Project Office AG Zeltweg 50 CH-8032 Zrich

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Early Project Estimations

Micro Estimation Steps
Customer Orientation Step 1: Voice of the Customer for profiling Business Drivers
The most prominent cost drivers are the customers values and business needs. For estimating projects, It is necessary to identify the business drivers that create value for the customer. The simplest method is Kano analysis. Business drivers are classified into delighters, one-to-one requirements, and expectations. It allows getting an importance profile of the business drivers to identify quality requirements and non-functionality that later will pop up during the project.
Kano Analysis

y
Customer Satisfaction
BD4 BD2
4,4

Lean Six Sigma

5,5

BD3
3,3 2,2 1,1
Business Drivers

Step 2: Plan the Deliverables

Deliverables are identified by functional sizing and the business needs profile. Some of them have impact on business drivers, some have no specific impact because they provide must-be functionality. These deliverables are written into the Buglione-Trudel matrix, a data structure visualization combining functional and non-functional work items.

BD1

BD5

Technical Excellence
Kano Profile 0.34 0.52 0.42 0.56 0.35
4 5 4 6 4

x
x y
4.5 3.2 3.4 4.7 3.7 3.7 3.2 5.0

Agile Processes

0,0

BD1 BD2 BD3 BD4 BD5

Responsiveness Be Compelling Friendliness Personalization Competence

10.3 3.2 2.3

The functional work items are recorded in the cellar of the matrix, the non-functional items are entered on the impacted rows of the matrix. The picture below shows a sample Buglione-Trudel matrix for Agile.
6 3

Process Metrics

= Story Card with strong impact on Business Driver = Story Card with medium impact on Business Driver

= Story Card with weak impact on Business Driver = Story Card with no impact on any specific Business Driver

Business Drivers
Responsiveness Be Compelling Friendliness Personalization

Story Cards

NPS Importance / Achieved Response

Customer Identity Management

Competence

User Story Priorities

Convergence Gap

0.09
Confidence Interval

92%

Functional Story Cards

Functional Size (ISO/IEC 19761)

Transfer Functions

User Stories

Helpdesk Story

Customer Story

Newcomer Story

Social Story

Certificate Story

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Early Project Estimations

Customer Orientation
Thus it becomes easily and visually perceivable, which business drivers are supported and which need additional effort. Again, it is not necessary to know exactly what needs to be done, only how much effort is likely to be expected.

Step 3: Risk Assessment

Now identify the risks and unknowns that must be addressed. Some risks such as using unknown technology can be addressed and mitigated; this adds work items both to cellar and rows of the matrix. A risk assessment is part of any estimation.

Lean Six Sigma

Step 4: Plan for Quality

There are still gaps to meet customers business driver profile. During the project these gaps will be filled by change requests. For the estimation, we fill them out now, indicating what needs to be addressed. The convergence gap the gap between business driver profile and planned project achievements is an indicator telling how far the project plan is from meeting customers needs.

Step 5: Add Test Plan; Complete the Estimate Agile Processes

There remains test effort, project administration, and project management to be added to the estimate, plus other tasks such as progress tracking, internal communication and project marketing, as needed. The convergence gap keeps telling you whether your planned effort is realistic. Add work items only where necessary; remove all those over-performing.

Early Estimation In, Out, and Cost

Process Metrics Preconditions
The project must have a goal, with a profile indicating relative importance between the goal topics. Technical constraints and the technology platform (e.g., choice of smartphones) must be known and stated, and overall requirements regarding user interface, interface to other systems, existing database, external services must be known. If these are not stated, or no Kano analysis is available, we need to elaborate these requirements in a half-day workshop.

Customer Identity Management

Deliverables
Results of the early estimation is a series of commented graphical overviews, either in the IFPUG or the COSMIC style that represent the application being counted. Comments include brief descriptions of the entities entered in the functional size count. Also delivered is a Kano diagram and a Buglione-Trudel matrix, identifying the presumed work items needed to meet business goals. This work item selection is not necessarily what will be implemented; they represent what effort will be needed to meet business goals.

Transfer Functions

The overall estimation takes one to five business days and Euro Project Office offers them as fixed price, depending from the size (apps, small, medium, large, extra-large).

Euro Project Office AG Zeltweg 50 CH-8032 Zrich

T: +41 44 253 13 06 E-Mail info@e-p-o.com Home www.e-p-o.com