DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER.

2013

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY WRAPUP

COPPER
At MCX, copper Nov. traded higher by Rs 1.95, or 0.45%, to Rs 437.05 per kg in a business turnover of 930 lots. The metal for delivery in February next year gained Rs 2, or 0.45%, at Rs 448.80 per kg in a business volume of 129 lots. Besides increased demand from consuming industries, a firming trend overseas after Fed Chairman said that the benchmark interest rate will remain low long after policy makers reduce bond purchases, influenced copper prices at futures trade.

GOLD
Gold hit a four-month low on Thursday, hurt by speculation the US Federal Reserve might be able to start scaling back its monetary stimulus soon. US gold futures for December delivery fell 1.5 per cent to $1,238.90 an ounce. Gold's drop to a four-month low this week attracted buyers in Asia but the re were doubts that the demand would last as consumers may be waiting for the market to go even lower. In India, despite muted demand, premiums jumped to $120 an ounce from $80 last week

CRUDE OIL
MCX Crude oil futures recovered yesterday but the gains were primarily because of weak undertone in the INR as global prices were weighed down by Euro-zone growth worries. Oil prices also got eased in Asia after talks between Iran and world powers on its disputed nuclear program opened in Geneva, while signs of rising US demand failed to boost New York's main contract. Domestic inventories had risen 400,000 barrels last week lower than expectations.

SILVER
Silver prices fell by 0.64% to Rs 46,220 per kg in futures trade yesterday as speculators trimmed their positions, taking weak cues from the global markets. At MCX silver March 2014 declined by Rs 297, or 0.64%, to Rs 46,220 per kg in business volume of 64 lots. On the similar lines, the white metal for delivery in Dec traded lower by Rs 282, or 0.63%, to Rs 44,717 per kg in business turnover of 775 lots. Silver traded 2.41% lower at $19.85 an ounce in New York in yesterday's trade.

SPECIAL NEWS
*The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.0% before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in October, steady over last month. On annual basis, the index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.7% over the last year, while the food index has risen 1.3%, The energy index has declined 4.8% over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month decline since July 2012. US data suggested stronger labor market conditions and subdued inflation pressures. US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected last week, while US producer prices fell for a second straight month in October.
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COMMODITY BUZZ
Commodity indices have continued to perform badly moving into 4th quarter of 2013 and weakness in metals and agri-commodities complex is seeping into energy, It was the 3rd consecutive year of negative returns. In its annual rebalancing at beginning of next year, the index will reduce its allocation to US NG. WTI crude oil and cotton in favor of gold, corn and silver. Reweighting events may not have any appreciable impact on commodity pricing. CME lowered Comex 100 Gold futures (GC) margins to $7,975 per contract from $8,800 and cut Comex 5000 Silver futures (SI) margins to $11,000 per contract from $12,375. CME also cut maintenance margins for gold to $7,250 per contract from $8,000. All the margin changes will be effective after the close of business on Friday, Nov. 22.
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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY LEVELS
DAILY LEVELS WITH TREND

ITEM GOLD SILVER CRUDE NATURAL GAS COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALUMINIUM

Contract 05 DEC 2013 05 DEC 2013 18 DEC 2013 25 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013

Open 30030 44851 5928 228.90 137.45 849.50 130.10 117.05 109.60

High 30338 45336 6063 235.7 445 851.60 131.2 118.10 110.70

Low 29917 44551 5916 228.9 436.15 841.7 129.3 116.65 109.1

Close 30285 45127 6053 233.90 444.65 849.7 130.95 118.1 110.60

% Chg. +0.51 +0.59 +2.35 +2.63 +1.88 +0.54 +0.69 +1.07 +1.15

OI (in lots) 6115 10311 10752 8270 11550 9162 27.95 2298 1875

TREND Sideways Bearish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

COMMODITIES
GOLD SILVER CRUDE NATURAL GAS COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALLUMINIUM
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CONTRACT
05DEC2013 05DEC2013 18 DEC 2013 25 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013

S2
29759.00 44219.67 5863.67 226.03 433.08 837.77 128.58 116.17 108.53

S1
30022.00 44673.33 5958.33 229.97 438.87 843.73 129.77 117.13 109.57

PIVOT
30180.00 45004.67 6010.67 232.83 441.93 847.67 130.48 117.62 110.13

R1
30443.00 45458.33 6105.33 236.77 447.72 853.63 131.67 118.58 111.17

R2
30601.00 45789.67 6157.67 239.63 450.78 857.57 132.38 119.07 111.73

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

RECOMMENDATION
GOLD
A swing trading was seen yesterday in Gold, positive jobless data hit the gold and took price down to 29917. Although it recovered, but prices then stuck in a trend channel and yet to make convincing trades above 30500 region to generate intraday buying sentiments 30800.

BUY GOLD ABOVE 30500 TGTS 30600/30750 SL 30350 SELL GOLD BELOW 30150 TGTS 30050/29950 SL 30330

SILVER

The prices have broken 45000 level but failed to close below, As long as 45000 region holds downside prices likely to trade higher with an upside target of 46100/46500 at an immediate level. On the other side, fall below 45000 with volume could bid selling sentiments towards 44800/44500.

BUY SILVER ABOVE 45500 TGTS 45700/46000 SL 45150 SELL SILVER BELOW 44800 TGTS 44600/44300 SL 45150

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY SPECIAL
LME INVENTORY (in tonnes)

METALS ALUMINIUM COPPER LEAD NICKEL TIN ZINC MOST ACTIVE CONTRACTS BY (VOLUME) Symbol
SILVERMICRO CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS COPPER SILVER M COPPERMINI SILVER GOLD M GOLD LEADMINI

Change
3300 -3575 -775 912 -60 -4575

Expiry Date
30-11-2013 18-12-2013 25-11-2013 29-11-2013 30-11-2013 29-11-2013 05-12-2013 05-12-2013 05-12-2013 29-11-2013

LTP
45316.00 6054.00 233.80 444.35 45308.00 444.30 45264.00 30952.00 30223.00 130.95

Value (In Lacs) Volume (In Lots)

3,26,37,48,952.00 40,98,31,584.00 1,01,37,334.20 1,76,37,140.20 1,73,46,62,088.00 1,17,32,630.10 1,00,21,90,224.00 66,96,46,520.00 53,17,43,462.00 20,54,212.65 72,022 67,696 43,359 39,692 38,286 26,407 22,141 21,635 17,594 15,687

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

ECONOMIC CALENDER

TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD ACTUAL MONDAY, NOV. 18

CONSENSUSFORECAST

PREVIOUS

10 am

Home builders' index

Nov. TUESDAY, NOV. 19

56

55

8:30 am

Employment cost index

3Q WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20

0.5%

0.5%

8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 10 am 10 am 2 pm

Retail sales Retail sales ex-autos Consumer price index Core CPI Business inventories Existing home sales FOMC minutes

Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Sept. Oct.

0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 5.23 mln

-0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 5.29 mln

THURSDAY, NOV. 21 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:58 am 10 am 10 am Weekly jobless claims Producer price index Core PPI Markit flash PMI Philly Fed Leading indicators 11/16 Oct. Oct. Nov. Nov. Oct. FRIDAY, NOV. 22 10 am Job openings Sept. 3.9 mln
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N/A -0.2% 0.1 -15.0 --

N/A -0.1% 0.1% 51.8 19.8

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 22nd NOVEMBER. 2013

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