&213%78.

9%N No" ,/
#:86856

AERODROME METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION AND FORECAST STUDY GROUP (AMOFSG)

SEVENTH MEETING Montral, A)#n*a It#% +, A#ro*ro%# -or#.a/t/ TREND FORECAST (Presented by Kees Blom) to !" S#$t#%&#r "''(

SUMMARY This paper describes a proposal for a new way of issuing a TREND type landing forecast by using the e pected pre!ailing weather parameter !alues in combination with the temporary !ariations of the parameter !alues"

#"

INTRODUCTION

#"# $n many %tates use is made of the TREND type landing forecast according to &nne ' ( Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation ) para *"'"'+ trend forecast shall consist of a concise statement of the expected significant changes in the meteorological conditions at that aerodrome to be appended to a local routine or local special report, or a METAR or S E!I" The period of validit# of a trend forecast shall be $ hours from the time of the report %hich forms part of the landing forecast&" #", -ith &mendment ./ to &nne ' it became possible to issue &0T1 2ET&R during opening hours of aerodromes" 3urthermore this has lead to issuing &0T1 local reports and &0T1 local special reports at some aerodromes as well"

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, &213%78.9%N No" ,/ ," DISCUSSION

,"# &utomated weather reporting in itself pro!es to generate more local special reports (and %PE;$) when issued)) since an automated system will strictly adhere to regulations) where human obser!ers tend to anticipate changes and are able to combine changes which occur shortly after each other into one report" ,", Preparing TREND forecasts with e!ery new report has always ta<en a lot of effort from a!iation forecasters) e!en more where they are pro!iding TREND forecasts for se!eral aerodromes from a centrali=ed forecast office" ,"' TREND forecasts according to the present recommendation ha!e to pro!ide >>> the expected significant changes in the meteorological conditions>"" " Especially in weather situations with rapidly changing conditions this results in many different TREND forecasts) while the pre!ailing weather conditions do hardly change" E amples+
2ET&R E?&2 5/#/,:@ #/5##KT /555 %?R& 3E-5'/;B BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. BE;27 4444 N%-B %PE;$ E?&2 5/#/':@ #/5##KT 4444 3E-5'/ BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. TE2P1 #/5#.7,6KT /555 %?R& %;T5'5;BB %PE;$ E?&2 5/#/':@ #:5#:7,:KT /555 %?R& 3E-5',;B BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. BE;27 #/5#5KT 4444 N%-B %PE;$ E?&2 5/#//.@ #:5#:7,:KT 4444 3E-5'/;B BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. BE;27 #/5#5KT TE2P1 /555 %?R& B 2ET&R E?&2 5/#/::@ #'5#,KT 4444 3E-5'/;B BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. TE2P1 #/5#.7,6K /555 %?R& B

(e amples pro!ided in 2ET&R8%PE;$ code) but can also be made for Cocal8%pecial reports") ,"/ To reduce the number of different TREND forecasts (and thus wor<load and costs) it is proposed to change the recommendation for the TREND forecast so that the pre!ailing conditions in the ne t , hours and the changes in that conditions are forecasted" $n the e amples of ,"' only one TREND would according to this proposal ha!e been necessary+
2ET&R E?&2 5/#/,:@ #/5##KT /555 %?R& 3E-5'/;B BKN5/5 5:85# A#55. !0'!'1T TEMPO !0'!2G"(1 0''' SHRA SCT'3'CB4

' &213%78.9%N No" ,/ '" CONCLUSION

'"# Producing TREND forecasts in a centralised forecasting en!ironment is time consuming and leads to high wor<load) especially in rapidly changing conditions" '", costs" ;hanging the e isting recommendation on TREND forecasts might reduce wor<load and

'"' $t is proposed to amend the recommendation in &nne ' para *"'"' to a more generic TREND forecast with pre!ailing conditions followed by e pected changes for the ne t , hours) appended as at present to 2ET&R) %PE;$) C1;&C report and C1;&C %PE;$&C report" /" /"# ACTION BY THE GROUP The &213%7 is in!ited to+ a) note the information in this paperD and b) decide on the draft action proposed for the groupEs consideration

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