1.

Probabilityplots
a. SupposeIwanttoseeifasetofmeasurementsmightbefromauniformPDF.Definethe
variables(iethehorizontalandverticalaxes)neededfortheplot.
Oneaxiswillbethemeasurementvalueswhiletheotheraxisistheprobabilityvalueofeach
measurement.Thelatteraxisisbecause,forthestandardU(0,1)uniformdistribution,F1(p)=p.
b.

SupposeIhaveprobabilitypaperwhichteststhesamplePDFofXagainststandarddeviatesof
theN(0,1)normaldistribution.IfX~N(a,b2),givetheslopeandinterceptoftheresultingline.
TheslopeisgivenbythenumberofstandarddeviationsofXoccurwithonestandarddeviation
changeofthestandardnormal.Inthiscase,wehavebSDschange.theinterceptisthevalueof
Xwhenthestandardnormalhaszerodeviates.thatvalueisa,themedianofX.

2.

Stateifandwhyorwhynotitispossibletohavethefollowingsituations.
a. PermeabilitywithnormalPDFandCv=1.
notpossible.permisnonnegativeand,ifCv=1,thereisa16%chancethepermisnegative.
b.

PorositywithlognormalPDFandCv=1.
notpossible.porositymustbelessthanorequalto1andforthelognormalwith>0,Prob(X>
1)>0.Cv=1means=0.8

c.

WatersaturationwithuniformdistributionandCv=1.
Notpossible.CvofauniformRV<1/sqrt(3)=0.6

d.

ReservesdistributioninabasinwithaParetoPDF.
Possible.therecanbemany,smallaccumulationsandjustafewbigpools.

3.

Areservoirhastworocktypes,AandB,whicharetobegeostatisticallymodelledwithProb(A)=0.6and
Prob(B)=0.4.Totestwhetherthemodelisworkingcorrectly,someonesamples10wellseparatedpoints
ofonerealisationandfindsthat8fallontypeAand2ontypeB.Giveaquantitativeargumenttoshow
whethermethodisworkingproperly.
wehaveabinaryvariablehere,sothebinomialPDFisappropriate.LetProb(A)=p=0.6,soProb(B)=
Prob(Ac)=1p=0.4.TheProb(8Asand2Bs)=10C8p8(1p)2=[10!/(8!2!)](0.6)8(0.4)2=45x0.017x
0.16=0.12
sothereisa12%probthat,withthegivenprobsforAandB,wewouldget8Asand2Bs.fromthis
evidence,thereisnobasistosuspectthemethodisnotworkingproperly.

4.

Analysis of seismic data indicates a potential reservoir, but the interpretation is uncertain. Version A
suggestsalimitedstructurewhichmightbemarginallycommercial.VersionBisamuchlargerstructure
with high potential for commercial amounts of hydrocarbons. The geophysicist suggests Prob(A) = 0.4
andProb(B)=0.6.

One exploration well (EW) is drilled to help clarify which situation exists. Under similar conditions
elsewhere,experiencehasshownthatsuchwellshavethefollowingperformance:Prob(EW=A|A)=0.8
andProb(EW=B|B)=0.6.

CalculatetheprobabilityofversionBifthewellindicatesBexists.
TheaprioriprobsareProb(A)=0.4andProb(B)=0.6.
Wealsohave
Prob(EW=A|A)=0.8andProb(EW=B|A)=0.2
Prob(EW=B|B)=0.6andProb(EW=A|B)=0.4

WeseekProb(B|EW=B).

FromBayes,Prob(B|EW=B)=Prob(EW=B|B)xProb(B)/Prob(EW=B)

Now,Prob(EW=B)=Prob(EW=B|B)xProb(B)+Prob(EW=B|A)xProb(A),so

Prob(B|EW=B)=0.6x0.6/(0.6x0.6+0.2x0.4)=0.36/0.44=0.82
5.

Forthefollowingsituations,statethevaluesofthe2.5th,50th,and84thpercentilesoftherandomvariable
X.
Answerstoa.andb.arebasedonthevaluesdiscussedinclassforthenormalPDF.
a.

b.

c.

d.

X~N(3,22)
i. 2=32x2=1
ii. =3
iii. +=3+2=5
log10(X)~N(0,1)
i. 102=1002x1=102=1/100=0.01
ii. 10=100=1
iii. 10+=100+1=10
X~U(1,3)
i. 0.025x2+1=1.05
ii. 0.5x2+1=2
iii. 0.84x2+1=2.68
XhasanexponentialPDFwithmeanof2,soF(X)=1exp(x/2)
i. 0.025=1exp(X0.025/2)givesX0.025=0.05
ii. X0.5=1.38
iii. X0.84=3.7