Yaer 1

Start up cost(one time)

production per yaer
Demand
Excess Cars produced
per unit selling price $
per unit VC $
Inflation rate
Cost of Capital

Number of cars sold

Revenue from cars sold at full price
Revenue for cars sold at 20% Discount
Cost All $
Profit

PV
Intial cost

Year 2
#NAME?
100,000
#NAME?
#NAME?
13,000
9,500
--9%

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
950,000,000
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?

NPV

#NAME?

Expected NPV
Min NPV
Max NPC

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

probability for NPV>0

#NAME?

Yaer 3

Yaer 4

Yaer 5

Yaer 6

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 7

Yaer 8

Yaer 9

Yaer 10

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 1
Start up cost(one time)
production per yaer
Demand
Excess Cars produced
per unit selling price $
per unit VC $
Inflation rate
Cost of Capital

Year 2
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
13,000
9,500
--9%

Number of cars sold

Revenue from cars sold at full price
Revenue for cars sold at 20% Discount
Cost All
Profit

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

PV
Intial cost

#NAME?
#NAME?

NPV

#NAME?

Expected NPV
Min NPV
Max NPC

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

probability for NPV>0

#NAME?

sim no.

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

production
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

120000
130000
131000
132000
133000
134000
135000

probability of NPV>0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yes they should produce this car as it has a high probability of yielding positive NPV at high production levels.

Yaer 3

Yaer 4

Yaer 5

Yaer 6

Yaer 7

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

NPV at high production levels.

Yaer 8

Yaer 9

Yaer 10

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 1
Initial Investent
Production per year
Demand
production in excess to demand
selling price per unit $
per unit VC $
Imflation rate
Probability of recall
Cost of Recall
Number of Cars Recall
Rebate
Cost of Capital

Cars Sold
Revenue Full Sales Price
Revenue at 20% Discount
VC $
Recall Cost
Rebate
Profit

PV
Initial Investment
NPV
Mean NPV
Max NPV
Min NPV
Probability of NPV positive
UCL
LCL

Year 2
#NAME?
100,000
#NAME?
#NAME?
13,000
9,500
---

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

9.00%

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
950,000,000

#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 3

Yaer 4
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 5

Yaer 6
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Yaer 7

Yaer 8

Yaer 9

Yaer 10

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Yaer 1
Initial Investent
Production per year
Demand
production in excess to demand
selling price per unit $
per unit VC $
Imflation rate
Probability of recall
Cost of Recall
Number of Cars Recall
Rebate
Cost of Capital

Year 2
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
13,000
9,500
---

9.00%

Cars Sold
Revenue Full Sales Price
Revenue at 20% Discount
VC
Recall Cost
Rebate
Profit

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

PV
Initial Investment
NPV

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Mean NPV
Max NPV
Min NPV
Probability of NPV positive
UCL
LCL

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

sim no.

production
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

120000
140000
160000
170000
171000
173000
185000

probability of NPV>0
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Therefore 95% probability of NPV above 0 production should be minuimum of 170000 unites
They should produce cars as it yields positive NPV. Moeover a high volume of production will lead laed to higher p

Yaer 3

Yaer 4

Yaer 5

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Yaer 6

Yaer 7

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

mum of 170000 unites

me of production will lead laed to higher probability of positive NPV.

Yaer 8

Yaer 9

Yaer 10

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Leaving to children
100000
Initial money 1500000
life expectancy
7
Total life expectancy72
Inflation
3.09%

Balance at death
1211253
Mean Balance at
-28885
death
Probability of Zero1.00
balance at death
Probability of leaving
0.000for children

Age
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88

Initial amount
WithdrawnInvested Inflation Treasury note
Treasury Note
US stock
returnfund
US stock return
1500000 105000.00 ########
3.09%
2.54%
476812
8.92% 506476.2
######## 108239.6 ########
3.09%
1.01% 457890.1
-5.79% 427045.4
######## 111579.2 ########
3.09%
2.55% 428458.2
0.03% 417934.7
######## 115021.9 ########
3.09%
2.08% 397793.4
24.31% 484411.3
######## 118570.7 ########
3.09%
1.21%
396128
19.00% 465746.5
######## 122229.1 ########
3.09%
1.50% 389389.7
31.37% 503963.7
######## 126000.3 ########
3.09%
1.55% 397582.2
5.80% 414212.4
######## 129887.9 ########
3.09%
1.17% 370023.7
24.79% 456431.5
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.77% 414953.1
8.11% 436484.2
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.05% 429297.1
4.13% 442385.7
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.50% 445354.7
15.87% 508384.4
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.11% 478540.8
8.14% 511834.4
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.29% 502268.9
40.82% 698325.3
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.28% 588035.7 -37.98% 356552.2
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.87% 530421.7 -13.09% 448154.5
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.12% 515696.9
17.54% 593579.1
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.21% 558775.3
17.77% 643844.3
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.38% 606018.6
2.03% 603944.4
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.55% 625082.8
23.62% 753512.1
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.94% 693051.9
32.87% 894522.1
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.38% 774596.7
10.40% 843515.3
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.52% 818879.3
21.37% 978956.7
########
0 ########
3.09%
1.88%
897364
42.45% 1254663
########
0 ########
3.09%
2.66% 1055908 -31.55% 704051.2

89
90
91
92
93
94
95

########
########
########
########
########
########
########

0
0
0
0
0
0
0

########
########
########
########
########
########
########

3.09%
3.09%
3.09%
3.09%
3.09%
3.09%
3.09%

1.98% 963974.4
2.34% 1066622
1.55% 1188432
2.12% 1270056
2.15% 1270718
2.55% 1233138
2.16% 1319688

23.00%
30.60%
13.13%
-7.65%
-17.09%
15.35%
-19.06%

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AAA/
https://www.urs.org/pdf/Miscellaneous/lcgrowth.pdf
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield (AAA) Large US Stock Fund
1/1/2003
6.17%
2003
21.80%
1/2/2003
5.95%
2004
7.40%
1/3/2003
5.89%
2005
15.70%
1/4/2003
5.74%
2006
0.50%
1/5/2003
5.22%
2007
17.70%
1/6/2003
4.97%
2008 -36.80%
1/7/2003
5.49%
2009
35.10%
1/8/2003
5.88%
2010
12.50%
1/9/2003
5.72%
2011
1.70%
1/10/2003
5.70%
2012
15.70%
1/11/2003
5.65%
1/12/2003
5.62%
Mean
0.0913
1/1/2004
5.54%
Standard Deviation
0.189981
1/2/2004
5.50%
Min
-0.368
1/3/2004
5.33%
Max
0.351
1/4/2004
5.73%
1/5/2004
6.04%
1/6/2004
6.01%
1/7/2004
5.82%
1/8/2004
5.65%
1/9/2004
5.46%
1/10/2004
5.47%
1/11/2004
5.52%
1/12/2004
5.47%
1/1/2005
5.36%
1/2/2005
5.20%
1/3/2005
5.40%
1/4/2005
5.33%
1/5/2005
5.15%
1/6/2005
4.96%
1/7/2005
5.06%
1/8/2005
5.09%
1/9/2005
5.13%
1/10/2005
5.35%
1/11/2005
5.42%
1/12/2005
5.37%

1162683
1361139
1323950
1148632
1031421
1387007
1045543

Sim no
1
2
3
4
5
6

1/1/2006
1/2/2006
1/3/2006
1/4/2006
1/5/2006
1/6/2006
1/7/2006
1/8/2006
1/9/2006
1/10/2006
1/11/2006
1/12/2006
1/1/2007
1/2/2007
1/3/2007
1/4/2007
1/5/2007
1/6/2007
1/7/2007
1/8/2007
1/9/2007
1/10/2007
1/11/2007
1/12/2007
1/1/2008
1/2/2008
1/3/2008
1/4/2008
1/5/2008
1/6/2008
1/7/2008
1/8/2008
1/9/2008
1/10/2008
1/11/2008
1/12/2008
1/1/2009
1/2/2009
1/3/2009
1/4/2009
1/5/2009
1/6/2009
1/7/2009
1/8/2009
1/9/2009
1/10/2009
1/11/2009

5.29%
5.35%
5.53%
5.84%
5.95%
5.89%
5.85%
5.68%
5.51%
5.51%
5.33%
5.32%
5.40%
5.39%
5.30%
5.47%
5.47%
5.79%
5.73%
5.79%
5.74%
5.66%
5.44%
5.49%
5.33%
5.53%
5.51%
5.55%
5.57%
5.68%
5.67%
5.64%
5.65%
6.28%
6.12%
5.05%
5.05%
5.27%
5.50%
5.39%
5.54%
5.61%
5.41%
5.26%
5.13%
5.15%
5.19%

1/12/2009
1/1/2010
1/2/2010
1/3/2010
1/4/2010
1/5/2010
1/6/2010
1/7/2010
1/8/2010
1/9/2010
1/10/2010
1/11/2010
1/12/2010
1/1/2011
1/2/2011
1/3/2011
1/4/2011
1/5/2011
1/6/2011
1/7/2011
1/8/2011
1/9/2011
1/10/2011
1/11/2011
1/12/2011
1/1/2012
1/2/2012
1/3/2012
1/4/2012
1/5/2012
1/6/2012
1/7/2012
1/8/2012
1/9/2012
1/10/2012
1/11/2012
1/12/2012
1/1/2013
1/2/2013
1/3/2013

5.26%
5.26%
5.35%
5.27%
5.29%
4.96%
4.88%
4.72%
4.49%
4.53%
4.68%
4.87%
5.02%
5.04%
5.22%
5.13%
5.16%
4.96%
4.99%
4.93%
4.37%
4.09%
3.98%
3.87%
3.93%
3.85%
3.85%
3.99%
3.96%
3.80%
3.64%
3.40%
3.48%
3.49%
3.47%
3.50%
3.65%
3.80%
3.90%
3.93%
Mean
0.05155
Standard deviation
0.006851
Min
3.40%
Max
6.28%

Grade BondGrade bondBalance

return
4.27% 484863.5 ########
5.89% 480021.1 ########
4.75% 437655.4 ########
5.35% 410520.9 ########
5.07% 411239.9 ########
6.15% 407206.1 ########
6.08% 415328.6 ########
5.21% 384797.9 ########
4.79% 423079.8 ########
4.66%
444622 ########
6.24% 466134.9 ########
5.07% 497273.6 ########
5.72% 524230.7 ########
4.76% 602292.1 ########
4.03% 536391.5 ########
5.13% 530878.2 ########
4.84% 573174.8 ########
4.51% 618634.5 ########
5.19% 641141.7 ########
4.66%
704602 ########
4.93% 801706.9 ########
4.71% 844568.3 ########
5.98% 933485.1 ########
4.61% 1075879 ########

5.79%
3.92%
4.15%
5.60%
4.92%
4.38%
6.68%

1000015
1083111
1218822
1313348
1305268
1255133
1378089

Withdraw
5000
10000
100000
102000
104000
105000

Expected
3486272
3310514
146872.9
76569.71
6266.573
-28885

########
########
########
########
########
########
########