Lahore University of Management Sciences CS 501: Applied Probability (Fall 2013) Assignment-1 Solution

Due: 5pm on Friday, September 6, 2013 Submission Location: Ph.D. Room, CS Department Assignment must be handwritten! Note: To obtain full points, write all steps and provide reasoning for each answer
{ }. Suppose that 1. Usman conducts an experiment which has a sample space { } , { } and { } . Find the probabilities of all outcomes. Solution: { Similarly, { } { } { } { } { } { } { } } { } { } { } { } { }

2. On a clandestine mission to acquire control of Banana Republics nuclear assets, you are faced with the last task of unlocking a vault protected by a 10-bit secret binary code. a. How many possible binary sequences are there in total? b. Suppose you enter an arbitrary 10-bit sequence. What is the probability that you have entered the correct code? c. If your first try was unsuccessful, you try entering another number, what is the probability of success? Solution: a) b) ( c) Let and

) be the event that you got the Right code in Second try be the event that you got the Wrong code in First try, then ( | ( | ) )

Important! Common Mistake: The following solution is wrong because you are assuming independence | This can also be seen by checking which implies that you can enter the code for second time even when you have entered the Right code for the first time. Moreover, the value of probability is telling that you have reduced the sample space even when you have to enter the same right code on both tries for the case of | . | However, if second try were allowed, should be equal to 1 because you know the correct code after first try and even if you have to enter the code again, youll enter the right code as you know the right code.

3. A license plate consists of either: a. 3 letters followed by 3 digits. b. 5 letters. c. 3 characters letters or numbers. Compute |W|, the number of different license plates possible. Also, find the probability that the resultant number plate does not have any character used for more than once. Any license plate is equally likely. Solution: | | Let E be the event that the resultant number plate does not have any character used for more than once. Then, | | | | | | 4. Pizza Time has agreed to give free pizzas to CS 501 students. As part of the deal, you can select four toppings of your choice out of a total 20 for your pizza. a. How many different toppings can you select if repetition is allowed? b. How many different toppings can you select if repetition is not allowed? Assume that the order in which the pizza toppings are selected does not matter. Solution: a) ( b) ( ) ) ( )

5. Let A, B and C be events with probabilities and . a. Find if A and B are mutually exclusive. b. Find if A and B are independent. c. Find if A and B and C are independent. d. Find if A and B and C are pairwise mutually exclusive Solution: a) P(A)+P(B) b) P(A)+P(B)+ P(A)P(B) c) P(A)+P(B)+P(C)- P(A)P(B)- P(A)P(B)- P(A)P(B)+ P(A)P(B)P(C) d) P(A)+P(B)+P(C)

6. A rumor is spread randomly among a group of 10 people by successively having one person call someone, who calls someone, and so on. A person can pass rumor on to anyone except the individual who just called. a. By how many different paths can a rumor travel through the group in three calls? In calls? b. What is the probability that if A does not start the rumor, A receives the third call? c. What is the probability that if A starts the rumor, A receives the third call? Solution: a) For 3 calls: For n calls: b) c) | |
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7. In the hope of having a dry outdoor wedding, John and Mary decide to get married in the desert, where the average number of rainy days per year is 10. Unfortunately, the weather forecaster is predicting rain for tomorrow, the day of John and Marys wedding. Suppose that the weather forecaster is not perfectly accurate: If it rains the next day, 90% of the time the forecaster predicts rain. If it is dry the next day, 10% of the time the forecaster still (incorrectly) predicts rain. Given this information, what is the probability that it will rain during John and Marys wedding? Solution: Let F denotes that the rain is forecasted and R denotes that it rains on that day. Then, | | | } ( Therefore, | | ( )

8. You have a fair coin and a coin with tails on both sides. You select a coin randomly and flip it. a. If the result of the first toss is a tail. What is the probability that it was the fair coin? b. If you flip the same coin once again and it comes up tail again, what is the probability now that the coin is the fair one? Solution: a) b) | |
| | | | | ( | ( ( ) ( ( ) ( ) ) ) )

9. In order to prove their worth, Ahsan and Ruwaifa, two undergraduate students at LUMS, have called for an arms wrestling championship among the CS 501 students. In order to select the champion, Ahsan and Ruwaifa first arm-wrestle with each other twice in the first round. If one of them wins both the matches, he proceeds to second round and gets to twice armwrestle Farhan, who is a seasoned grad student and the current champion. Farhan retains his championship unless a second round is required and the challenger beats Farhan in both the matches. If Farhan wins the first match of the second round then no more wrestling is required. Additionally, we are given the following information about these wrestlers: The probability that Ahsan will defeat Ruwaifa in any particular match is 0.6. The probability that Farhan will defeat Ahsan in any particular match is 0.5. The probability that Farhan will defeat Ruwaifa in any particular match is 0.7. Assume that no matches are tied and all matches are independent. I. Using the given information determine the probability that: a. The second round will be required b. Ahsan will win the first round c. Farhan will retain his championship for this year Given that the second round is required, determine the conditional probabilities a. Ahsan is the surviving challenger b. Farhan retains his championship

II.

III.

Given that the second round was required and that it comprised of only one match, what is the conditional probability that it was Ahsan who won the first round? Solution: Let Ahsan be A, Ruwaifa be R and the subscript xxxx denotes the match and that they (W)on or (L)ost. Then,

I.
a) b) c)

II.
a) b) | | |
( ) ( )

III.

10. Zainab, a LUMS undergraduate student, makes 1 to 5 new friends every month, with equal probability. The number of friends he makes each month is independent from all other month. We are concerned with two consecutive months. Let event A be the event that Zainab made a total of 10 friends during the two month". Let event B be the event that Zainab made more than 5 friends during the two month". a. Are the events and independent? b. Let be the event that Zainab made exactly 5 friends during the first month". Are events and independent, conditioned on ? c. Is independent of ? d. Is B independent of ? e. Given that Zainab made a total of 6 friends in two months, what is the probability that he made exactly 2 friends in the first month? How about 3 friends in the first month? f. Given that Zainab made a total of 6 friends in two month, what is the probability that he made exactly 2 friends in at least one of the month? How about exactly 3 friends in at least one of the months? Solution: a) b) c) d) | | | |
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Dependent | Independent Dependent Dependent

e) Let E=Zainab made a total of 6friends in two months Fi =Zainab made exactly i friends in the first month, then }| |{ | |{ |{ f) Let E=Zainab made a total of 6friends in two months Gi =Zainab made exactly i friends in at least one of the month, then }| |{ | |{ | |{ |{ }| | |{ }|

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