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### WORKSHOP THREE DEVOTIONAL

God’s work is glorious and perfect. Everything He made is unique, including each snowflake and sand particle. People sometimes try to make things exactly alike (e.g., cars, candles, toothpicks), but there are always differences. However, through the use of statistics, we can make generalizations about the characteristics of these things.

### WORKSHOP THREE OUTCOMES

Upon completion of this workshop you should be able to:

• 1. Compare probabilities of outcomes given differing input conditions.

• 2. Evaluate the impact of conditions upon outcome probabilities using conditional probability theory.

• 3. Test the probabilities of differing outcomes using Bayes’ theorem.

• 4. Compare and contrast data sets using the properties of normal probability distributions.

• 5. Compute the expected value and variance of a probability distribution.

• 6. Calculate covariance and understand its use in finance.

• 7. Determine the likelihood of events using the properties of binomial, hypergeometric and Poisson distributions to solve business problems.

### WORKSHOP THREE RESOURCES

• Textbook: Statistics for Managers

• File: levine_smume6_4.pptx

• File: levine_smume6_5.pptx

### WORKSHOP THREE OUTLINE

 TITLE TYPE DUE DATES POINTS 3.1 Reading Reading Due as soon as possible. 0 Post your initial response by the end of the 3.2 Winning the Big One Discussion fourth day of the workshop and your two responses by the end of the workshop. 20 3.3 Chapter Problems Assignment Due by the end of the workshop. 30 3.4 Final Project Proposal Assignment Due by the end of the workshop. 0 TOTALS 50

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### WORKSHOP THREE ASSIGNMENTS

RESOURCES

• Textbook: Statistics for Managers

• File: levine_smume6_4.pptx

• File: levine_smume6_5.pptx

INSTRUCTIONS

• a. Chapter 4 begins the development of an understanding of probability and represents a bridge between descriptive statistics and inferential statistics, regression, time series, and statistical process control topics to be covered in later chapters. In this chapter, we learn about probability rules.

• b. Chapter 5 extends our understanding to probability distributions. The expected value and variance (standard deviation) are computed and interpreted.

• 2. The Excel Guide in chapter 4 and 5 will prove of great value in expanding your Excel skills.

• 3.2 DISCUSSION: WINNING THE BIG ONE

RESOURCES

• Textbook: Statistics for Managers

INSTRUCTIONS

• 1. Ethical issues arise in advertising. Gambling has many negative elements that impact our society. The chapter on probability analysis clearly demonstrated the “odds” of winning are quiet small. Consider the following type of advertising statement “we won’t stop until we have made everyone a millionaire” in this discussion.

In the Winning the

Big One discussion forum, post your response to this advertising statement using material from chapter 4 to support discussion points.

• 2. Support all of your statements in the discussion with references to concepts from the textbook or other readings, examples taken from your personal experience and observations, and/or interpretations of scripture.

• 3. Your initial post is due by the end of the fourth day of the workshop.

• 4. Read and respond to at least two of your classmates’ postings, as well as all follow-up instructor questions directed to you, by the end of the workshop.

• 5. Your postings should also:

• a. Be well developed by providing clear answers with evidence of critical thinking.

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• b. Your observations should add greater depth to the discussion by introducing new ideas.

• c. Provide clarification to classmates’ questions and provide insight into the discussion.

• d. Be posted on three different days during the workshop.

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

Three

3.3 ASSIGNMENT: CHAPTER PROBLEMS

RESOURCES

• Textbook: Statistics for Managers

INSTRUCTIONS

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• 1. Complete six of the following problems from the textbook:

• a. Chapter 4: 4.36, 4.37, and 4.55.

• b. Chapter 5: 5.24, 5.27, and 5.31.

• 2. Data files for all problems in the text are available for download from the companion website. Use Excel whenever possible. You should show all of your work whenever possible, as partial credit may be earned.

• 4. Submit your completed problems using the Chapter Problems assignment tool by the end of the workshop.

• ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

 ASSESSED ITEM POINTS Chapter Problems 30 TOTAL POINTS 30

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3.4 ASSIGNMENT: FINAL PROJECT PROPOSAL

INTRODUCTION

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This course involves the preparation and submission of a major project. The final project is an

individual assignment where you select a research topic to explore using data for decision making. Here you will develop a hypothesis and set up your data for analysis using the appropriate statistical tools that were studied during this course.

This project is not due until Workshop Eight, with an initial draft outline due in Workshop Six.

It is recommended that you select the project area by the end of Workshop Three and submit a proposal to the instructor. The instructor can assist in the proper selection of appropriate statistical analysis.

INSTRUCTIONS

• 1. Submit a one to two paragraph project proposal using the Final Project Proposal assignment tool by the end of the workshop.

• 2. Begin to work on your draft outline that is due by the end of Workshop Six.