Brent Daily Report

Contract Open High Low Close Volume OI CHANGE LCOK3

104.28 105.55 103.4 104.66 245683 1152024 0.2

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Price Camarilla
105.84 105.25 104.07 103.48

LCOK3-M3 LCOM3-N3
-0.07 -0.02 -0.25 -0.11 105365 0 0.09 0.16 0.07 0.11 51334 #VALUE!

Week
18-22 25-01 4-8 11-15

16:30 CFDs(Not updated ) Today(May ) Yesterday 0.28 0.33 0.33 0.33 0.13 0.11 -0.07 -0.07

Last week 0.63 0.54 0.34 0.1

Correlation with other crude instruments

Supports
-0.18 -0.26 -0.3 *** * ** ***

Brent Spreads Resistances

-0.08 -0.01 0.05 0.1 ** *** ** ****

6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00

1.20

1.00

-0.48

0.80

Key Fundamentals Forties continues to remain weak because of over supply and poor demand from refineries. Refinery maintenance in Europe and russia continue to keep demand at bay and both Forties and NWE Urals might be weak for some more time. Forties might have been weaker had it not been for some exports to US where expensive LLS is providing arbitrage opportunities. Some traders have been saying that exports to South Korea might be reduced to less than half due to changes in tax laws from July.

1.00 0.00 Jan-13 -1.00 -2.00 -3.00 -4.00 Brent-Dubai EFS (LH Axis) Ural-Brent spread (LH axis) Brent Spread (RH Axis)

0.60

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

0.40

0.20

0.00

Technical Snapshot and Analyst's opinion The spread got to our target of -0.26 (well almost). Now 0.26 is the important 161.8 extension level.We normally see corrections from this level. So technically, the spread might take a correction to the upside today. Levels to the upside can be -0.07, -0.01 and 0.05... In case we keep moving down -0.26 can again be a decent support once again...below that the spread can target 0.48. Similar to the first spread, the second spread is also supported at 161.8 extension target of 0.08 So second spread can also be strong today and target 0.20, 0.22 and 0.30 NB: if the spread stays weak and breaks below 0.08...it should target -0.05

GHF Group, 2012

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OTHER MARKETS PRODUCTS PRICE CHANGE PRODUCTS RBOB 1560.25 1 S&P500 #N/A service Record permissioned not service permissioned GAS OIL DAX #N/A Record not #N/A Record not service permissioned HEATING OIL FTSE #N/A Record not service permissioned 1.3022 0.0013 EURO BONNY LIGHT 1575.41 2.32 GOLD URALS #N/A Record not #N/A service Record permissioned not service permissioned WTI COPPER

OTHER COMMODITIES PRICE Daily change Monthly change 2.921 0.011 0.037 887.25 6.5 -38.5 2.960 0.006 -0.004 110.57 102.43 93.62 0.26 1.79

Technicals Daily MA
5 8 13 34 50 100 200

BRENT 105.42 107.36 107.79 109.80 112.12 111.32 110.50

BONDS US 10 YR BUND ITALY 10 YR SPAIN 10 YR

YIELD
1.7418 1.255 4.339 4.737

CHANGE
-0.003 0.019 -0.002 -0.009

BRENT OUTRIGHT Supports

104.35 104.1 103.6 103.1 *** ** *** **

Resistances
105.15 105.50/70 106.60 107.5 *** *** *** **

Technical Snapshot The outright once again took an up move from the trendline and we are already 150 ticks above. We have posted a little double bottom on the outrights here.. 105.55 to 105.65 shall be an important range if outrights have to move higher. Break above this range can be bought. (Not saying that the outrights should be strong...but if they break above this range, they can be strong). To the downside 104.35 and 104.10 shall be important supports.

Key fundamentals & Analyst's opinion Euro has turned stronger since the last few days but oil hasnt participated in the rally. The usual correlation with SnP has broken off some time ago and oil doesnt seem to be a favorite of Risk on Risk off operators anymore. Lots of things are being said about end of peak oil theories. With the US producing more and more oil everyday, thanks to the Shale boom, the worlds biggest oil importer is importing ever decreasing volumes of oil. Also being talked about are stories of how natural gas and natural gas liquids, also abundant due to shale revolution, are turning out to be cheaper substitutes for oil. These, stories have slowly turned the sentiment weaker on oil and hence it is much weaker than the other risk assets with whom it was correlated.

GHF Group, 2012

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FORWARD CURVE

117 115 113 111 109 107 105 103 101 Mar-13 Jun-13

Forward Curve - Brent

1 DAYSep-13 1 MONTH

1 WeekDec-13

Mar-14

Comments:
2500

LOADING PROGRAM All values in Cargoes No. of Cargoes MoM change YoY change 116000 16000 0 BRENT 426000 26000 -90000 FORTIES 155000 35000 -38000 OSEBERG 194000 -6000 17000 EKOFISK 820000 71000 -111000 BFOE TOTAL NSEA TOTAL URALS WAF Note: 20000 bbls/day == 1 cargo .

LOADING PROGRAM (in thousands)

2000 Current Last month Last year

1500

1000

500

0 Brent Forties Oseberg Ekofisk BFOE NSEA

Important deals during Platt's Window Forties differential were weaker again. CFDs were weaker too.

REFINERY PROFIT MARGINS ROTTERDAM $/BARREL BRENT CRACK BRENT HYDRO

09/04/2013 5.72 4.34 5.23 6.89 3.39 2.58 2.32 4.92

Real Time Energy Data INDICATOR US API WEEKLY CRUDE STOCKS US API WEEKLY GASOLINE STK US API DST. STOCKS US API CUSHING NUMBER US EIA WEEKLY CRUDE STOCKS US EIA DIST. STOCKS US EIA GASOLINE STK. US WEEKLY REFINING UTILITY ACTUAL SURVEY
1.467 -1.600 -1.333 1.467 -1.333 -1.600

PRIOR
4.709 -5.026 -1.850 -0.287 2.707 -2.266 -0.572 0.6

AVERAGE
LAST 5 DAYS LAST 15 DAYS LAST 365 DAYS

GHF Group, 2012

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