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|
.
|
with
S: applied stress
R : mean value of yield strength
R
standard deviation of the strength distribution
tabulated value of the cumulative normal distribution
Very often the load and therefore the stress is not exactly known. In the following we
also assume a statistical distribution for the stress. Then the failure probability corre-
sponds to the common area formed by the two statistical distributions.
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We define:
safety range = R S
median safety range = R S
safety factor = R/S
median or central safety factor
o
= R / S
Failure occurs if R S; i.e. R-S 0 or R/S 1 or 0 or = 1.
If the stress R and the strength S are both normally distributed with the mean values
R
and
S
and the standard deviations
S
and
R
respectively, i.e.
R =
R
and S =
S
then their difference will also be normal distributed. Hence the probability of failure is
given from normal tables as
P
f
= P(R-S 0) =
+
|
\
|
.
|
|
R S
R S
2 2
or in terms of the central safety factor
P
f
=
( )
1
0
0
2
2
+
|
\
|
.
|
|
|
R S
where
R
and
S
: are coefficients of variation:
S
=
S
/
S
and
R
=
R
/
R
Example for deterministic and probabilistic design
Let us assume the following values:
R
= 800 N/mm
2
;
S
= 400 N/mm
2
S
= 20%,
R
= 5%
a) Deterministic Design:
Design stress mean value plus two standard deviations, i.e. S + 2
S
= S
D
Design strength: mean value minus two standard deviations, i.e. R - 2
R
= R
A
Design criteria: S
D
= R
A
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Then
=
+
=
+
|
\
|
.
|
|
=
+
|
\
|
.
|
|
R
R
S
S
R
S
R
S
R
S
2
2
1 2
1 2
1 2
1 2
0
According to the chosen design criteria
D
= 1 and therefore
0
1 2
1 2
14
0 9
156
=
+
= =
S
R
.
.
. P
f
= 0.0005 (non conservative)
If the design criteria is 2 S
D
= R
A
, i.e. = 2, then
0
= 2.0
.
1.56 = 3.12 P
f
= 1.64 10
-17
(ultra conservative)
b) Probabilistic Design
Required: P
f
= 1.0 10
-6
Calculated central safety factor:
0
= 2.07
Design stress = mean strength/2.07
2.2 Strength Distributions
Usually the normal or gaussian distribution is used to describe the strength distribution
of the material. Mostly this is a good approximation if the interesting probability lies
between 2% of 98%. If the design requires very low failure probabilities, e.g. 10
-2
%,
then the gaussian distribution is not appropriate.
Example:
Let us consider a coarse grain graphite (standard electrode graphite, maximum grain
size: 6 mm) with the following measured properties (500 specimens):
mean tensile strength: 2.34 MPa
standard deviation: 0.71 MPa
minimum strength: 0.70 MPa
maximum strength: 4.00 MPa
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Then assuming a gaussian distribution of the strength distribution we obtain the follow-
ing relationship between the applied stress and the probability of failure:
Applied stress
< 0.0
< 0.2
< 0.3
< 0.5
failure probability
5.0 10
-4
1.4 10
-3
3.0 10
-3
5.0 10
-3
There is an certain probability to find specimens with a negative tensile strength. Also
the value for the probability to find a specimen with a tensile strength lower than 0.5
MPa is not correct.
The statistical function appropriate to describe the strength distribution should fulfil the
following conditions:
a) The probability density function has only positive values or is equal to
zero.
b) The failure rate increases monotonously (the higher the stress the higher
the failure probability)
The normal distribution does not satisfy the condition a). The log-normal distribution
does not fulfil the condition b); the risk function on the basis of the log-normal distribu-
tion first increases, but eventually decreases at higher values (e.g. of stresses ).
Another family of functions called extreme value distributions, also referred to as
Weibull distributions, complies with both conditions:
( )
( )
L t
c t
m
e
=
( L = probability of survival)
( )
( )
t
L t
dL
dt
=
1
( ) ( )
(
t cm ct
m
=
1)
(risk function)
where m > 1. If t = 0 then L = 1, i.e. the function has no negative values.
Further detailed information about the Weibull distribution can be found in the Appen-
dix A.
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3 System Reliability
3.1 Reliability of a single component
If a component is characterized by an exponential reliability function, its failure is due a
chance rather than wear out.
( )
T
t
L e
t =
; ( )
( )
T
T
t
f
L
e
t
d t
dt
= =
where is the failure rate (risk function) and is a constant, L is the probability of sur-
vival, and f
T
(t) is the density function. Performing the integration, we obtain
T
t
e
dt
0
or
T
t
t e
d
0
T
t
e
= =
0
1
Hence, for an exponentially reliable component, the mean time to failure (MTTF) is 1/.
By repeated integration it can be shown that the standard deviation is also equal
to1/, i.e.
= 1/.
The probability that a component will reach its MTTF is
L
T
(
T
) = exp(-/) = exp(-1) = 0.37
that means that only 37% of the components reach their mean time to failure or that
the probability of exceeding the mean is .37. For the normal distribution the mean has
a probability of .5.
Example: If the MTTF of a component is 10,000 hrs, its reliability for a 100 hrs. opera-
tion is
T L e
= =
100
10000
1
100
10000
0 999 .
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3.2 Probability of Combination of Events
If A and B are two independent events with probabilities of occurrence P(A) and P(B),
then the probability that both events will occur is
P(AB) = P(A) P(B) (1)
If two events can occur simultaneously the probability that either A or B or both occur
is
(P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB) (2)
If the two events are mutually exclusive
(P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) (3)
IF two events are complementary and exclusive
P(A) + P(B) = 1 (4)
Examples:
Two dice are thrown. What is the probability of having a double six?
P(A) = 1/6; P(B) = 1/6; P(6,6) = 1/36 (equ. 1)
Two dice are thrown. What is the probability that at least one six appears?
P(6) = 1/6 + 1/6 1/6 x 1/6 = 11/12 (equ. 2)
A single dice is thrown. What is the probability of having a 2 or 3?
P(2 or 3) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 1/3 (equ. 3)
Heads and tails on a coin are complementary and exclusive events.
P(H) + P(T) = 1 (equ. 4)
3.3 Reliability of Series Systems
When components are connected in such a way that the failure of a single component
causes system failure, from a reliability standpoint, the components are connected in
series. A chain fails if a single link breaks.
For two components with reliabilities L
1
and L
2
in series, the reliability of the system,
the two failures being independent, is
L
S
= L
1
x L
2
For a system of n components the rule can be extended
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( )
S i
i
n
L P
=
=
1
1
If all components have exponential reliabilities with failure rates
1
,
2
, etc. then
( )
S
t t t
i
i
n
t t
e e e
n
= =
(
=
1 2
1
exp .
The expression
S i
i
n
=
(
=
1
is called the system failure rate.
The mean time to failure is
T
= 1/
S
and the probability that a series system will live
past its MTTF is again 37%.
3.4 Reliability of a Redundant System
A system in which components are connected in such a way that each one can per-
form the required function is called a redundant system. In such a system a failure of
an individual component does not cause system failure. The system can be seen like a
parallel arrangement of individual components.
When two components with independent failure probabilities P
1
and P
2
are connected
parallel, the system can only fail if both components fail. Using equation (1) we obtain
P(system) = P
1
P
2
Alternatively the system operates if either 1 or 2 or both components operate. Using
equation (2) we obtain
L(system) = L
1
+ L
2
L
1
L
2
Of course the rule can be extended to several components in parallel arrangement:
( ) P system and L system
i
i
n
i
i
n
P P
= =
= =
1 1
1 ( )
For identical components with exponential probabilities
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( )
( )
( )
( )
system
t
n
t t
system
t
P e e e
L e
t n
n n
t n
= = +
+
=
1 1
1
2
2
!
........
The MTTF can be calculated according to the following formula
( ) MTTF t dt i
i
system
n
L
= = =
0
1
1
Example:
If the failure rate of the individual component is 0.02, then the failure rate of the system
consisting of two such components is
P
system
= 0.02 x 0.02 = 4.0
.
10
-4
and the survival probability of the system is
L
system
= 1 P
system
= 99.96 %
3.5 Combined Systems
The analysis of a system consisting of combination of series and parallel subsystems
requires the breakdown of the subsystems into simpler form. For that individual com-
ponents have to be combined in such a way that they form a series or a parallel sys-
tem and the correspondent probabilities have to be calculated. Doing that several
times one obtains finally a simple series or parallel system.
3.6 Reliability of Parallel Systems With More Than One Survivor
If it is necessary that in a parallel system, consisting of n identical components m sur-
vive for safety operation, the reliability of the system can be evaluated from the bino-
mial expansion of (L+P
f
)
n
= 1.
( ) ( )
( )
L
f
n
i
n
i
n
n
f
i
P L P
+ = =
=
0
1
1
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where , the binomial coefficient, is equal to n!/[(n-1)!i!]. The exponents of L indicate
the number of surviving components while the exponents of P
( )
i
n
f
show the number of
components failing.
Example:
Assuming a system consists of three components with identical reliabilities L = 0.99
and requires at least two components to work for safe operation, then
(L + P
f
)
3
= L
3
+ 3L
2
P
f
+ 3L P
f
2
+ P
f
3
= 1
The terms of this series are interpreted as follows:
L
3
is the probability that all three components operate (series arrangement)
3L
2
P
f
is the probability that two of the three components operate and one fails.
This event can occur three ways: Component No. 1 and No. 2 operate
and No. 3 does not or No. 1 and No. 3 operate and No. 2 does not or No.
2 and No. 3 operate and No. 1 does not.
3L P
f
2
is the probability that one component survives while two fail
P
f
2
is the probability that all three fail (parallel arrangement)
The reliability of the system, if two or more components (two or three) are required for
operation is
L
system
= P[X2] = L
3
+ 3L
2
P
f
= .99
3
+ 3 .99
2
0.01 = .9997
3.7 The probability of system failure is
P
f system
= P[X1] = 1 L
system
= 3L P
f
2
+ P
f
3
= 3.0 0.99 0.01
2
+ 0.01
3
= 0.0003.
3.7 Application to Components of the High Temperature Reactor
The core bottom of the THTR is supported by about 400 graphite columns. Assuming
that no more than 10 of these are allowed to fail. What is the reliability of the system?
Assuming that L
column
= 0.9, 0.95, 0.97, and 0.99 respectively, then
( )
( )
system
i
i
i i
L l
l =
=
400
0
10
400
1
The following table shows the reliabilities for different assumption.
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L
column
L
system
(390 out of 400
must operate)
L
system
(all must operate)
0.9 4.7 10
-9
4.9 10
-19
0.95 0.0094 1.2 10
-9
0.97 0.344 5.1 10
-6
0.99 0.99732 0.0179
0.995 0.9999924 0.135
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4 The Significance of a Safety Factor for the Design of Ceramic Structures
4.1 Safety and Allowable Stress
The allowable stress
allowed
for structures of materials is the limit stress up to which
the structure can be loaded during operating. This value is evaluated by dividing the
corresponding material property value by a safety factor greater than 1.
allowed
= K/S
The material property value K can be the yield strength, the ultimate tensile strength,
the bending strength etc. The safety factor depends first of all on the safety require-
ments and eventually on economic points of view.
This procedure has proved to be successful for metallic structures. For ceramic struc-
tures a corresponding term does not exist as a rule. But it is desirable to have such a
simple procedure during the planning of a project.
Let us consider the distribution of the strength of metallic materials and of materials
like glass or ceramic (see sketch). For metallic materials and ductile materials respec-
tively the scattering of the strength values is so that all the values are within a small
region round the mean value. It is unlike to find a value outside a certain bandwidth
round the mean value. Therefore if the allowed value is smaller than the mean value
divided by a safety factor then the failure probability of the structure is very small.
For materials like glass and ceramic the distribution of the strength differs in such a
way that very small values can occur. Therefore a deterministic safety design based on
a safety factor is not possible: it has to account for the strength distribution of the spe-
cial material.
Sketch 1: Typical Strength Distributions for Metallic and Ceramic Materials
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4.2 Definition of a Safety Factor
Point of departure for the following consideration is the mean value of the tensile,
compressive or bending strength, because this value is mostly given in the material
data sheet. Also we assume a Weibull distribution of the strength data. The general
form is
F d
m
V
=
|
\
|
.
|
(
(
1
0
exp
V
where F = failure probability
V = volume
0
, m = Weibull parameters
0
is related to the magnitude of the strength and m is related to the scattering of the
strength. Small values of m ( m<< 10) means large scattering and large values ( m >>
10) means small scattering.
In the following we only consider a uniaxial stress state. Therefore we can write
F V
m
=
|
\
|
.
|
(
(
1
0
exp
(5)
and obtain the following relationship between the mean value of the strength and
the Weibull parameter
0
:
( )
= +
0
1
1 1
/
/
m
V
m (6)
where (m) is the Gamma function.
We solve equation (6) with respect to V and insert V in equation (5). We obtain
( ) F m
m
= +
1 1 exp
In analogy to the safety factor for metals S we define now a safety factor S for ceramic
materials according to the following equation
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allowed
S
= (S > 1) (7)
Inserting S in equation (5) and solving this equation, after looking up the logarithm,
with respect to S results in
( )
S
m
F
m
=
+
|
\
|
.
|
`
)
1 1
1
1
1
/ )
ln
/
(8)
The following table presents the failure probability for different Weibull parameters and
safety factors.
S for
m F = 10
-2
F = 10
-3
F = 10
-4
F = 10
-5
F = 10
-7
2 8.8 28.0 88.6 280.3 2802.5
5 2.3 3.7 4.6 9.2 23.1
10 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 4.8
15 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.8
20 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.2
30 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.7
Safety Factor S for Some Failure Probabilities F
According to equation (8) we establish:
S does not depend on the volume
S comes up to 1 with increasing Weibull parameter m for all failure probabilities
S comes up to 1 with increasing failure probability for all values of the Weibull pa-
rameter m
Even for m= 10, the safety factor can reach a value of 3.0 or more.
4.3 Application to the Design of the Graphite Structures of a HTR
Typical reactor graphite material has a Weibull parameter m of about 10. The allowed
failure probability of the side reflector blocks at the end of the reactor life is equal to
1%: Therefore the safety factor needed is 1.5. This means that the allowable stress is
the mean strength divided by 1.5. Therefore in the case of a membrane tensile or
compressive stress situation the allowed stress is the tensile and the compressive
strength respectively divided by 1.5. In the case of local tensile stresses and in the
case of bending stresses the corresponding strength may be the bending strength. In
first approximation the bending strength is higher than the tensile strength by a factor
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of 1.5. Therefore the tensile strength may be used as allowed stress in the design to
evaluated local tensile stresses or bending stresses.
The allowed failure probability for graphite blocks whose failure cause high damage or
represents a risk for the further operation of the reactor is 10
-4
. In this case the allow-
able stress is the corresponding strength divided by a factor of about 2.5.
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5 References
/1/ J. Hartung, B. Elpelt, K.-H. Klsener
Statistik- Lehr- und Handbuch der angewandten Statistik
R. Oldenbourg Verlag Mnchen Wien (1986)
/2/ K.C. Kapur; L.R. Lamberson
Reliability in Engineering Design
John Wiley & Sons
NexYork
/3/ S.M. Selby
Standard Mathematical Tables
The Chemical Rubber co., Cleveland, Ohio, 1972
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Appendix A GBRA 050 303 Blatt A1
Appendix A
Guide to the use of the Weibull Distribution
by
Robert A. Heller
Professor of Engineering Science and Mechannics
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
HRB-Report BF 0684 20.10.81, revised by A. Schmidt
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Appendix A GBRA 050 303 Blatt A3
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Appendix A GBRA 050 303 Blatt A4
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