Panos Giannopoulos Hellenic National Met.

Service
19th Annual Meeting of the Working Group on Co-operation Between European Forecasters (WGCEF)

a brief overview of how HNMS forecasts are

distributed

some related issues that have been raised the last years
..thoughts for discussion..

a general forecast for today-tomorrow

(every six hours)-text A general forecast for 3 to 7 days (once daily) -text
Weather warnings

Weather and

Sea Bulletins and Warnings for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea.

Aeronautical forecasts (TAF, SIGmet,

SigWC, Gamet) etc) HNMS is certified as

Special forecasts for customers

an Air Navigation Service Provider under the framework of the Single European Sky Regulations.

(public+private sector)

TV

Radio

newspapers

internet

1975 the first weather bulletin in Greek TV from a meteorologist of Greek NMS

Until 1989 only two public channels with 3 meteorologists each (from NMS) as presenters

1989 Private Television launching (5 channels cover the entire country)

For first time weather was presented from non meteorologists The meteorologists in the background preparing the material again from the HNMS (retired or not)

now 1 meteorologist or 1 meteo + 1presenter Again most meteorologists are of HNMS origin (2 from NMS , 2 retired, 1 no relation) Basically their forecasts are HNMS forecasts

Now, only two stations have

a live weather bulletin every day from meteorologists.

Usually, in most stations, there is a less than 30-

sec weather bulletin every hour (usually, but not always, from HNMS)

Decline of circulation
From 2007 to 2012

Sunday newspapers

daily

Loss 40% circulation500.000

loss 62% 90000

Before the financial crisis, all Sunday newspapers had a meteorologist (from HNMS) writing a full-page weather forecast. Now more than 70% have retained a signed weather forecast

Until 2008 the top 5 newspapers in circulation have a weather forecast signed by a meteorologist from HNMS Now there is no signed weather forecast in any daily newspaper. Usually, only a copy and paste forecast from HNMS without mentioning the source or just a weather graphic with no source of data

In Europe 70% of the weather forecasts are signed

At the end of 1990 the first internet weather forecasts appeared (numerical weather forecasts), produced by:
the University of Athens, the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, later.

In 2002 the first greek weather portal was introduced, created by some researchers of the National Observatory of Athens

Clearly oriented towards the general public.

a latest public survey for a big Sunday newspaper measured governmentinstitutions confidence index GICI HNMS was 1st ( among 48)
Source: Public Issue company for Kathimerini

Some years ago it was

not questioned what was the origin of the weather forecast

Now although NMS has

a dominant role, the origin of the forecast in some cases is unclear

Seasonal forecasts is something new for the science

But also for the media

Some seasonal forecasts from the past Theofrastus De signis 300B.C If a great deal of rain falls in winter, the spring is usually dry; if the winter has been dry, the spring is usually wet. If periodic winds have been blowing for a long time, and a windy autumn follows, the winter is windless

Good news: winter will be gentle

From last Sundays newspaper a Ph.d meteorologist (not from HNMS) gave a seasonal forecast for 2013-2014 winter

the coldest winter of the last 100 years is coming

Some comments from a German meteorologist Reproduced in many Greek sites_ including yahoo news Appeared from 21/sep and for many days

The same happened for the 2013 summer

Seasonal forecasts of unknown origin or unreliable sources appeared on internet and later appeared also on traditional media (late April)
A very hot summer is coming-

A German meteorologist predicts wet summer for Greece

Impact on - decisions of tourists?

A reporter working for a Foreign Press Agency asked HNMS to comment on these articles

Since 2008 HNMS participates

to SEECOF

(South Eastern Europe climate outlook forum) In which- twice a year- a consensus outlook for the next season is produced
(HNMS dont publish any seasonal forecast yet)

How we can achieve that NMS forecasts are always referenced appropriately
Is it appropriate to communicate seasonal forecasts

to general public ? And which is the best way to communicate their uncertainty?