Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
WoodProductsMarketinIndia
ATIBTForum,HoChiMinhCity
October12
PresentationStructure::
1. India Snapshot
2. ForestryinIndia NaturalandPlantation
3. ForestProductsIndustry
4. MarketandConsumer
5 SupplyandDemandDynamics
5.
S
l
dD
dD
i
Supply(ImportsandDomestic)
Demand(ExportsandDomestic)
Demand (Exports and Domestic)
DemandSupplyGap
6.QnA
Q
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
India::Snapshot
DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ::
DEMOGRAPHICPROFILE::
Area3.28millionSq.kilometers
7th largest(byArea)2nd LargestbyPopulation
LargestDemocracyintheWorld(714Mn Voters)
22OfficialLanguages Hindi(41%)WidelySpoken
81%Hindus,13%Muslim,2%eachChristians,Sikhs.
Median Age =25years
MedianAge
25 years
ECONOMICINDICATORS::
GDP
GDPin2011$4.53TrillionPPP3rdlargest,6%of
i 2011 $4 53 T illi PPP 3 d l
6% f
worldsGDP
PerCapitaGDP$3652,middleincomecountry
Servicesdriveneconomy::
y
Services::60%ofGDP
Agriculture::16%ofGDP
Industry::24%ofGDP
GDPGrowthCAGRfor5years::8.4%
GDP Growth CAGR for 5 years :: 8 4%
FDIConfidenceIndex2012 Indiaranked2nd
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
NaturalForestsinIndia::Overview
Forests
69
Notforcultivation
Pastures
141
MiscTreeCrop
42
13
25
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
Wasteland
FallowLand
11
Agriculture
40.0
32.0
23.8
5.7
Protected
Forests
Reserved
Forests
NaturalForest
Unclassified
Forests
Plantations
Plantations
*Source:AgricultureStatisticsAtAGlance2003,MinistryofAgriculture.
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
NaturalForestsinIndia::CurrentStatus
TotalForestArea::69MHA 20%of CountrysLandarea.
Forestcoverhasstabilizedforthepast15yrs
p
y ((64to67MHA)
)
PerCapitaAreaforest@.064HA About10%ofWorldAvg.
90Mpopulaceisdirectlydependentonforests,another110Mispartiallydependent
90 M
l
i di tl d
d t
f
t
th 110M i
ti ll d
d t
27%ofForestsareManagedbyLocalCommunitiesand8%byPrivateGroups
DemandforFuelWoodandOverGrazingseverelyimpactforestquality
Avg Stockingislow@60m3/haandProductivity@0.7m3/haamongstthelowest
ForestcoverlikelytoincreasebyYr 2030::ForestConservationLegislation
SevereLoggingrestrictionsowingtoSupremeCourtorder
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
PlantationsinIndia::Overview
AreaUnderPlantation 32MHA(17%oftheGlobalForestPlantations)
Approx.Outputof53MM3from30MHaoftotalPlantationsin2005
MainspeciesunderPlantationareEucalyptus,Acacia,Poplar,SilverWood,Rubber
Wood,andTeak
Poplar&EucalyptusarethefewsuccessfulspeciesinPlantations
GeneticimprovementsinPoplarandEucalyptushavehelpedincreaseyields
Govt promotingPlantationunderAgroForestry/SocialForestrySchemestoprovidefor
Fiberrequirementforarapidlydevelopingforestbasedindustries
q
p y
p g
50%areAgroForestryPlantations
AgroForestryhasbeendevelopedsince1980susingthefollowing::
1. SubsidizedPlantingStock
2. BankLoanAssistance
3. SharedCroppingSchemeswithPaper/PulpCompanies
4 ResearchintoClonalplantingwithBuybackguarantees
4.
Research into Clonal planting with Buy back guarantees
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
IndustryCharacteristics
Most of India's Processing is small scale
Mix of small medium and large scale industries processing logs and lumber
I t final
Into
fi l products
d t
Fragmented and Relationship Oriented
Subsector
PulpandPaper,Paperboard
Woodbasedpanels
Sawmills
Matches
Matches
Doors,woodworkingplants
Units
%ofSSI
406
66
506
8090
23000
82
12000
82
98
25
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
IndianMarketandConsumers
INDIA IS NOT ONE MARKET 28 ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS HAVE 28
different SALES TAX REGULATIONS
Carpenters
C
plays
l
an iimportant role
l iin b
buying
i d
decisions
i i
((site
i b
based
d prodn)
d )
No Standardization in sizes
Strong Traditional Preference for H/W TEAK
H/Ws used for door/door frames (hardly any solid wood furniture/flooring)
Regional Preference (Example:: In South India Best wood used for the Door)
Seasoning and Preservative Treatment is rare
Processed wood demand is increasing
Softwoods considered inferior/ used for short life applications
Difficult to get reliable Market intelligence
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
DemandDynamics
IndustrydemandforLRandSRSpecies
inMm3
LR%
Industry
P
Paper&Board
&B d
0%
Plywood
50%
Construction
80%
Packaging
5%
Furniture
100%
Veneer
50%
Particleboard
100%
MDF
100%
Others
Total
LR+SRTotal
2005 2005
LR
SR
9.0
90
7.0 7.0
15.5 3.9
2.8 2.8
3.4
0.2 0.2
0.2
0.2
02
7.5 14.5
36.6 37.3
74
2010 2010
LR
SR
15.5
15 5
9.0 9.0
17.7 4.4
3.2 3.2
4.6
0.2 0.2
0.2
0.2
02
9.8 18.0
44.9 50.3
95
2015 2015
LR
SR
26.6
26 6
11.5 11.5
21.0 5.3
3.8 3.8
5.9
0.3 0.3
0.3
0.2
02
11.5 21.4
54.4 68.8
123
2020 2020
LR
SR
35.8
35 8
14.6 14.6
22.8 5.7
4.5 4.5
7.5
0.4 0.4
0.4
0.3
03
14.7 26.7
65.1 87.7
153
IndustryinIndia,focusedonDomesticmarket
Mostofthedemandcomesinretail,verylittlebulkbuying
YoY
LR+SR
8%
4%
2%
3%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3%
4%
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
SourcingSupply
15%ofSupplycomesfromNaturalForests,7075%fromPlantationsand812%from
Imports
ImportsDetails::Volume
I
t D t il V l
Category(000s)
LOGS/RSQ
LUMBER
PLYWOOD
SubTotal1
VENEER
PARTICLE BOARD
PARTICLEBOARD
FIBREBOARD
DENSIFIED
WOODPANELS
WOODFLOORING
WOODFRAMES
RESTALL
SubTotal2
HS
Unit
4403 CBM
4407 CBM
4412 CBM
4408
4410
4411
4413
4418
4409
4414
All
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
MT
2007
3,931
60
137
4,128
14
98
131
6.4
3.4
4.3
1.4
22
282
2008
3,875
85
175
4,136
19
88
99
5.4
7
6.2
2.3
29
256
2009
5,527
173
207
5,907
22
104
114
2.5
7.3
5.3
1.5
48
305
2010
4,664
192
329
5,185
28
136
174
3.6
11
9.6
0.6
23
386
2011
6,168
495
386
7,049
58
167
178
2.4
17
11
0.6
27
461
YoY
12%
69%
30%
14%
43%
14%
8%
22%
50%
26%
19%
5%
13%
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TopSupplyingOriginsbyType2011
350
In MTs
320.50
300
250
200
133.08
150
117.56
96.52
86.86
100
41.29
35.53
33.78
24.22
50
China
Others
Malasiya
Nepal
Veneer (144.15)
Plywood (386.37)*
Creating value is our business
Log/LumberImportsbySpecies Volume(m3)
LogsVol
Pine
Meranti
Teak
Gurjan
Resak
Kapur
Batu
Keruing
Kwilla
Pyinkado
Others
Total
2010
1,030,314
971,452
656,233
565,193
241,063
241,162
241 162
260,580
212,797
89,130
39,822
356,544
4,664,290
2011
1,592,743
1,072,771
1,004,827
657,423
266,817
221,934
221 934
184,133
181,927
85,052
99,898
800,035
6,167,560
LumberVOL
Pine
Teak
Spruce
Beech
Merbau
FIR
Padouk
Meranti
Oak
Others
TOTAL
2010
39,961
59,180
13,535
21,429
22,776
13,035
13 035
1,458
960
1,819
18,056
192,210
2011
164,789
52,659
45,764
31,542
26,113
31,656
31 656
21,981
3,031
2,042
115,664
495,240
3
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
1
3
3
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
AfricaLogImports BySpecie/Origin
LOGSVOL(CBM)
2010
2011
Padouk
56,504 15,993
BELI
6,416 925
BILINGA
373 4,532
AFRIC.WHITEWOOD 4,107 163
SAPELLI
1,358 1,856
WENGE
535 483
DABEMA
681
AYOUS
558
KOSIPO
369
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
3
1
AFRICALOGSBYORIGIN VOLUME
LOGSVOL(CBM)
2010
2011
GABON
60 268 2,974
60,268
2 974
CENTRALAFRICANREP. 4,285 12,433
CONGO
5,520 8,841
CAMEROON
865
3
3
3
1
1
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEAKLOGS&LUMBERBYORIGIN VOLUME
TEAKLOGS
MYANMAR
COSTARICA
IVORYCOAST
GHANA
ECUADOR
PANAMA
BENIN
SUDAN
BRAZIL
TOGO
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
159,165
91,128
93,681
99,158
99 158
62,853
36,318
31,926
13,697
5,616
14,157
48,533
,
656,233
2011
278,672
126,974
75,230
94,030
94 030
120,087
70,323
48,693
31,972
27,106
23,866
107,873
,
1,004,827
3
3
1
1
1
3
3
1
3
3
1
3
3
TEAKLUMBER
TANZANIA
BENIN
BRAZIL
ECUADOR
MYANMAR
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
39,403
5,285
7,126
2,345
2 345
1,530
3,490
59,180
2011
33,023
7,562
3,944
1,253
1 253
1,237
5,639
52,659
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Teak Logs imports is the Largest tradeflow into India in value terms ($ 459
Mio)
Existing imports of 1.05 M m3 of Teak logs & lumber. India is by far, the largest market for Teak Imports.
Logs imports dominated by 3 origin sets
Myanmar: big increase, but future outlook remains uncertain due to regulatory environment
West Africa: volumes reducing consistently as Plantations diminish and Quality deteriorates
Central America: has good potential to be the largest source of sustainable teak in the near future
Teak lumber remains a niche tradeflow dominated by one origin- Tanzania.
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
Demand SupplyGAP
SupplyDeficit(Mm3)
Demand
Supply
Supply Gap
SupplyGap
2000
DomesticSourcesCANNOTkeeppacewithprojecteddemand.
SRSpeciesarelikelytoreplaceLR inShort/MediumTerm
ConstructionindustrydemandforH/WwillbereplacedbyComposites/ReadyMade
Door/DoorFrameImports
FurnitureIndustrywillmoveawayfromLRspeciesdomesticmanufacturingtoImports
d
ll
f
d
f
ofIntermediateandFinishedwoodenfurniture
ReadymadeDIYfurnituretogainground,DependenceofCarpenterstocomedown
y
g g
, p
p
Likelyswitchfrom100%WoodentoWoodmixandAlternatematerial
PlywoodindustrymaylookforalternatepeelinggradeH/Ws orImportmoreVeneer
ormovetowardsLaminates
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
Demand SupplyGAPcont
MDF/HDFBoardstogainmarketshare.IndiaexpectedtofollowtheWorldAverage
BoardUsage
Plywood
y
ParticleBoard
MDF
Total
India
85%
10%
5%
100%
World
20%
55%
25%
100%
2011Data
InvestmentinCompactingPlantsexpectedtogoup
PaperindustryislikelytopushaggressivelyforAgroforestryinSRcrops.Mayimportif
costsarecompetitive
Pricesareexpectedtoriseupacrosstheboardforallwoodproducts
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
WrapUp
ImportofSoftwoodlikelytoincrease
Teakwillcontinuetohavestrongdemand
Teak will continue to have strong demand
IndianimporterswilllookfornewcompetitivesourcesofH/Ws
Lumberimportstoremainrobust
TreatedWoodwithH/Wpropertieslikelytobecomepopular
Importsofintermediateandfinishedproductsislikelytoincrease
TemperateSpecieslikelytobecomeacceptable
LikelyentryofcorporatePlayersinDIYandRetailSegment
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
QnA
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
WOODPRODUCTSIMPORTSBYVALUE
Category(M$)
Category
(M $)
LOGS/RSQ
LUMBER
VENEER
PARTICLEBD
FIBREBD
PLYWOOD
DENSIFIED
WOODPANELS
WOODFLOORG
WOODFRAMES
FURNITURE
RESTALL
GRAND TOTAL
GRANDTOTAL
HS
4403
4407
4408
4410
4411
4412
4413
4418
4409
4414
9403
all
2007
1,172.0
25.0
18.5
47.0
57.0
29.0
7.8
12.7
10.0
2.0
291.0
28.9
1 701 0
1,701.0
2008
1,133.0
32.0
20.4
39.0
49.0
33.0
9.9
16.7
9.4
2.4
273.0
30.2
1 648 0
1,648.0
2009
1,360.0
47.0
21.8
39.0
48.0
40.0
5.7
19.4
9.7
2.0
244.0
30.4
1 865 0
1,865.0
2010
1,307.0
68.0
29.3
61.0
80.0
63.0
7.7
27.3
14.6
0.9
356.0
34.7
2 049 0
2,049.0
2011
1,955.0
145.0
50.9
82.0
86.0
114.0
6.0
47.3
13.8
1.0
501.0
47.6
3 049 0
3,049.0
YoY
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
14%
55%
29%
15%
11%
41%
6%
39%
8%
16%
15%
13%
16%
Source:DGFTimportexportdatabase
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEMPERATELOGSBYSPECIES VOLUME
LOGSVOL
Pine
BEECH
SPRUCE
OAK
ASH
FIR
MAPLE
WALNUT
2010
1,044,606
19,515
18,391
7,413
1,756
3,066
1,332
1,023
1 023
2011
1,592,743
37,317
14,429
1,353
3,310
607
1,389
1,269
1 269
3
3
1
3
3
1
1
1
1
TEMPERATELOGSBYORIGIN VOLUME
LOGSVOLUME
NEWZEALAND
GERMANY
BELGIUM
BOSNIA&HER
UK
USA
FRANCE
DENMARK
2010
935,016
58,526
49,083
49 083
3,830
10,895
3,393
11,420
6,594
2011
1,436,054
30,575
35,731
35 731
68,122
46,412
15,106
3,500
2,813
3
3
1
3
3
3
3
3
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
LOGSIMPORTSBYORIGIN VOLUME
LOGSVOLUME
MALAYSIA
NEWZEALAND
MYANMAR
GHANA
COSTARICA
PAPUANGNA
ECUADOR
ECUADOR
UKRAINE
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
1,800,615
904,921
842,761
124,688
81,444
118,950
54,278
54 278
10,761
725,871
4,664,290
2011
1,885,580
1,460,412
1,238,011
140,090
135,950
134,974
112,767
112 767
94,981
964,795
6,167,560
2 000 000
2,000,000
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
LOGSCBMORIGIN
MALAYSIA
1,600,000
NEWZEALAND
MYANMAR
MYANMAR
1,200,000
GHANA
COSTARICA
800,000
PAPUANGNA
ECUADOR
ECUADOR
400,000
UKRAINE
OTHERS
2010
2011
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
LOGSIMPORTSBYORIGIN VALUE
LOGSVALUE
LOGS
VALUE
2,010
2 010
MALAYSIA
433
MYANMAR
259
NEWZEALAND 141
PAPUANEWGUI 42
COSTARICA
33
IVORYCOAST
46
Ghana
37
ECUADOR
20
GABON
46
PANAMA
11
OTHERS
93
GrandTotal
1,160
2,011
2
011
597
443
270
54
58
42
37
49
3
25
197
1,774
700
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
LOGSBYORIGIN
OGS O G VALUE(M$)
( $)
MALAYSIA
600
MYANMAR
500
NEWZEALAND
PAPUANEWGUINEA
400
COSTARICA
IVORYCOAST
300
Ghana
200
ECUADOR
GABON
100
PANAMA
OTHERS
2,010
2,011
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
LOGSIMPORTSBYSPECIES VALUE
LOGSVALUE
Teak
Meranti
Pine
Gurjan
Batu
Kapur
Resak
Keruing
Kwilla
Pyinkado
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
287
183
155
127
90
51
42
41
42
22
121
1,160
2011
459
274
253
189
83
67
60
53
41
62
234
1,774
500
Logs
g VALUEM$
450
Teak
400
Meranti
350
Pine
300
Gurjan
Batu
250
Kapur
200
Resak
150
Keruing
100
Kwilla
Pyinkado
50
OTHERS
2010
2011
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
LUMBERIMPORTSBYSPECIES VOLUME
LumberVOL
Pine
Teak
Spruce
Beech
Merbau
FIR
Padouk
Meranti
Oak
Others
TOTAL
2010
39,961
59,180
13,535
21,429
21 429
22,776
13,035
1,458
960
1,819
18,056
192,210
,
2011
164,789
52,659
45,764
31,542
31 542
26,113
31,656
21,981
3,031
2,042
115,664
495,240
,
180,000
,
3
1
3
1
1
1
3
1
1
3
3
Lumber CBM
160,000
Pine
140,000
Teak
120,000
Spruce
Beech
100,000
Merbau
80,000
FIR
60,000
Padouk
40,000
Meranti
20,000
Oak
Others
2010
2011
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
LUMBERIMPORTSBYSPECIES VALUE
LUMBERVALUE
LUMBER
VALUE
Pine
Teak
Merbau
BEECH
Padouk
SPRUCE
FIR
OAK
Meranti
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
8
24
9
8
1
3
3
1
0
6
63
2011
34
23
11
12
14
12
9
1
1
38
155
45
3
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
1
3
3
LUMBER VALUE M$
LUMBERVALUEM$
40
Pine
35
Teak
30
Merbau
BEECH
25
Padouk
20
SPRUCE
15
FIR
10
OAK
Meranti
OTHERS
2010
2011
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEMPERATELUMBERBYSPECIES VOLUME
LUMBERVOL
Pine
SPRUCE
BEECH
FIR
OAK
ASH
MAPLE
2010
24,206
8,199
12,980
7,896
7 896
1,102
817
964
2011
164,789
31,755
21,886
21,965
21 965
1,417
1,627
898
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
TEMPERATELUMBERBYORIGIN VOLUME
LUMBER VOL
LUMBER
VOL
GERMANY
USA
CANADA
NEW ZEALAND
NEWZEALAND
BOSNIA&HER
RUSSIA
ROMANIA
UK
NETHERLANDS
2010
25,709
7,072
4,208
8,770
8 770
3,030
1,579
712
313
2011
57,105
53,801
32,764
19,431
19 431
22,544
16,912
8,320
5,100
5,402
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEAKMARKETS DEMAND&SUPPLY
Demand: growing steady at 5% CAGR. Fed by
1.05 M m3 of Imports (2011)
0.25 M m3 of local production.
Consumption in 3 key sectors.
Relatively less risk of substition
Average Demand of 2.05 M m3 per year till 2020
Supply: current supplies able to meet demand
demand.
Future supplies is impacted by many factors:
Indias current local production of 0.25 M m3/yr.
Uncertain due to Regulatory/ Legal issues
Indias teak cover of 4.15 M Ha. Potentially
huge, but production remains uncertain
ConstructionIndustrial
ConstructionHousehold
D&W segment
D&Wsegment
Furniture
TotalConsumption
TeakSources(Area)
(
)
India
Myanmar
RestofAsia
Africa
Cent&S.America
Total
0.46
0.20
0.52
0 52
0.13
1.30
3%
7%
5%
5%
5%
0.53
0.27
0 66
0.66
0.17
1.63
0.61
0.38
0.85
0 85
0.21
2.05
Type
yp
MHa
NaturalForest+Plant. 4.15
NaturalForests
0.30
NaturalForest+Plant. 2.50
Plantations
0.30
Plantations
0.18
7.43
TEAKLOGS&LUMBERBYORIGIN VOLUME
TEAKLOGS
MYANMAR
COSTARICA
IVORYCOAST
GHANA
ECUADOR
PANAMA
BENIN
SUDAN
BRAZIL
TOGO
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
159,165
91,128
93,681
99,158
99 158
62,853
36,318
31,926
13,697
5,616
14,157
48,533
,
656,233
2011
278,672
126,974
75,230
94,030
94 030
120,087
70,323
48,693
31,972
27,106
23,866
107,873
,
1,004,827
3
3
1
1
1
3
3
1
3
3
1
3
3
TEAKLUMBER
TANZANIA
BENIN
BRAZIL
ECUADOR
MYANMAR
OTHERS
TOTAL
2010
39,403
5,285
7,126
2,345
2 345
1,530
3,490
59,180
2011
33,023
7,562
3,944
1,253
1 253
1,237
5,639
52,659
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEAKMARKETS Demand
Currently assessed by adding Consumption:
Total Imports of 1.05 M M3 pa, growing at 5%
Estimated Local Production of 0.25 M M3 pa, estimated to be growing at 5-10% (?)
Demand Forecast
TeakConsumingSegments
ConstructionIndustrial
ConstructionIndividual
D&Wsegment
F it
Furniture
TotalConsumption
2010Vols Annual
M M3
MM3
Growth %
Growth%
0.46
3%
0.20
7%
0.52
5%
0.13
0 13
5%
1.30
5%
2015
2020
0.53
0.27
0.66
0.17
0 17
1.63
0.61
0.38
0.85
0.21
0 21
2.05
Creatingvalueisourbusiness
TEAKMARKETS SupplyLocal
Local Teak Production
0.25 M M3 of current production (basis consumption info??)
Likely to increase at the rate of xxx%? the next 5 yrs based on State auctions
More plantations acquiring maturity
Conducive regulatory environment with Govts focus on Community/ Indsutry led production (Farm/
Agri Forestry Initiatives)
Potential production basis Area under Teak cover. 9.26 M Ha*
Natural
N t lF
Forestt 6.81*
6 81* m H
Ha (S
(Source FAO 2010)
2010). N
Nett Eff
Effective
ti area off 1
1.7
7MH
Ha
3.54 m Ha with share of Teak > 25%
3.27 m Ha with share of Teak < 25%
Teak Plantations Area 2.45
2 45 m Ha (source ITTO Update)
M Ha
MHa
Yield
Yield
M3/Ha
Production
Production
Potential MM3
ProductionPotentialtill
Production
Potential till
2020 MM3(?)
NaturalTeakForest(effectiveArea)
1.70
120
204
10.22
TeakPlantations
2.45
75
184
18.38
Total
4.15
388
29
93
Creatingvalueisourbusiness