The Risk of Terrorism against Oil and Gas Pipelines in Central Asia

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January 6, 2002

The Risk of Terrorism against Oil and Gas Pipelines in Central Asia
Dr. Ely Karmon ICT Senior Researcher This article is based on a paper presented at the Symposium on The Oil and Gas Routes from Caspian-Caucasus Region: Geopolitics of Pipelines, Stability and International Security, organized by the Landau Network-Centro Volta, Como, 1011 December 2001 (http://lxmi.mi.infn.it/~landnet/). Energy sources are both economical and political strategic assets, for the producer countries and for their clients alike. In the case of oil and gas pipelines, they also benefit the countries of transit, and in many cases are considered of strategic international or regional importance. Since the end of the Cold War, the oil rich regions, the Persian Gulf, the Caspian Sea basin, and the South China Sea, have become even more important strategically. Behind this shift in strategic geography is a new emphasis on the protection of supplies of vital resources, especially oil and natural gas. Whereas Cold War era divisions were created and alliances formed along ideological lines, economic competition now drives international relations - and competition over access to these vital economic assets has intensified accordingly. Because an interruption in the supply of natural resources would entail severe economic consequences, the major importing countries now consider the protection of this flow a significant national concern. In addition, with global energy consumption rising by an estimated two percent annually, competition for access to large energy reserves will only grow more intense in the years to come.[1] Terrorist strategists were always aware of the importance of oil and gas resources for their own political and economical needs. Terrorist organizations have used attacks on such resources for various goals:
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By attacking oil and gas facilities they can provoke serious economic hardships and endanger the internal stability of the governments they are fighting, thus facilitating their quest for power;

In many cases, the targeting of these resources is seen as an important step in the fight against foreign powers which have vested strategic interests in these regions, which support the legal government, or against international companies involved in the development and exploitation of oil and gas resources;

Finally, they see the possibility to use the financial wealth from oil revenues, or the threat to curtail the oil and gas flow, for purchase of weapons, or to increase their economic and social influence among the population they want to control.

There is probably no serious in-depth research on the use of terrorist attacks against oil and gas resources on the international arena. Hereby an ad-hoc analysis of the trends in this field since 1980 to 2000. Unfortunately, there is no good database on this specific subject, therefore the analysis relies on various databases and chronologies, which are not complete. Moreover, data concerning our area of interest, the Caspian and Central Asia region is practically inexistent.

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90 incidents concerning pipelines, oil and gas facilities, and personnel involved in the discovery, construction and exploitation of these resources were recorded for this period. These incidents can be divided according to location, by continents, as follows:
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Middle East - 16 (Iraq - 2, Kuwait - 4, Lebanon - 5, Saudi Arabia - 1, Turkey - 4) Africa and North Africa 18 (Algeria - 3, Angola - 6, Congo - 1, Mozambique - 3, South Africa - 2, Sudan - 3)

Latin America 29 (Argentina 2, Colombia 19, Ecuador 2, Guatemala 1, Peru 2, Suriname - 1, Venezuela 20)

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North America 2 (US 1, Canada - 1) Europe 17 (Belgium 3, Cyprus 1, Germany 7, Norway 1, Spain 4 UK 1)

Asia 6 (Afghanistan - 2, Japan - 2, Philippines - 1, Thailand - 1)

The country with most incidents, covering almost all the period, and with the most serious ones, is Colombia. In order to understand the scarcity of information on this sensitive subject, it could be noted that in this database, which relies on three chronologies, there were 19 such incidents in Colombia. But according to one information in 1988 alone there were 50 bombing attacks targeting the 500 miles Cano-Limon oil pipeline. According to the US Department of States Patterns of Global Terrorism for the year 2000, there were 423 international terrorist attacks in 2000, an increase of 8 percent from the 392 attacks recorded during 1999. The main reason for the increase was an upsurge in the number of bombings of a multinational oil pipeline in Colombia by two terrorist groups there. The pipeline was bombed 152 times, producing in the Latin American region the largest increase in terrorist attacks from the previous year, from 121 to 193.[2] Looking to the targets attacked by terrorist, we acquire a better understanding of the methods used by them:
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Bombings of pipelines 17. It should be noted that this number includes bombing of NATO military pipelines in Europe in the 1980s, by left wing radical organizations.

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Bombings of oil fields and other facilities - 9 (including one car-bomb). Bombings of offices of private or national oil companies - 9. Kidnappings - 23. Some kidnappings were intended to achieve the cancellation of oil research or exploitation of existing oil fields, others to protest oil or general policies, and many for ransom. There were cases of kidnapping 20 to 30 people in one operation, mainly in regions were strong guerrilla organizations were active.

Killings in many cases personnel of oil or other involved companies were killed during the attacks. The worst known case is the bombing of the Ocensa pipeline, again in Colombia, in October 1998, which provoked the death of 71 persons and the injuring of more than 100.

Until recently, the political decisions concerning the itinerary of the projected oil and gas pipelines to be built between the Caspian Sea and the importing countries in Russia, West and

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East Europe, took seriously in consideration the threat of guerrilla and terrorist attacks due to ethnic and religious conflicts in the region and the tense situation in Afghanistan even before the 11 September was one of the factors influencing such decisions.[3] The September 11 attacks by the bin Laden networks against highly symbolic targets in the United States, have changed the whole approach by most nations to the potential of high risk terrorism and consequently to the necessary security measures for all strategic assets. In the US, industry and government officials alike are looking for ways to make sure that, like commercial airliners, another component of US technology isn't turned into a horrific weapon against Americans. Frederick L. Webber, president of the American Chemistry Council, has remarked that If they [the terrorists] are looking for the big bang, obviously you don't have to go far in your imagination to think about what the possibilities are. If one had to think about what is the next level of potential targets, you would have to think about major chemical and oil facilities.[4] Therefore, the US federal government has directed gas pipeline companies to take immediate steps to protect their systems in the aftermath of the Sep. 11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta asked operators to develop long-term plans to improve security.[5] The Department of Transportation's Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) made permanent a security circular it had issued to pipeline operators immediately after the attacks. In the notice to interstate and intrastate systems in all parts of the country, OPS cautioned pipelines to act with a heightened sense of security. Above-ground facilities such as compressor stations, major pipeline interconnections and communication towers are considered potential targets for terrorist attacks. Following prescribed security schemes, companies posted additional operational and security personnel at certain facilities and increased surveillance along pipeline routes.[6] Moreover, gas system maps were stripped off the Internet after the attbecause they gave to important sensitive information to potential terrorists. The Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) has discontinued providing open access to the National Pipeline Mapping System (NPMS).[7] In the United States there is a continuous dispute concerning the building of the Alaska pipeline project. Some politicians and specialists suggested that such a huge pipeline would become an attractive terrorist target. Others considered it an asset, because it is entirely within the US and Canadian borders, therefore better protected than imported oil.[8] According to some analysts, the terrorist assault on the United States has darkened prospects over the near-term for energy companies doing business in the Caspian Basin. Over the longer term, however, development prospects for natural resources could be bolstered by increased US interest in the region. According to this evaluation the terrorism threat in Central Asia tends to restrain new capital investment, because American companies invested in the Caucasus and Central Asia in order to gain alternative energy sources outside the presumably volatile Middle East, but as Afghanistan has become the focus of American military activity, the Caspian region may be more unstable than the Gulf.[9] However, at this stage of the campaign the coalition has dealt a decisive strike against the Taliban and the al-Qaida organization in Afghanistan, greatly weakening the radical Islamist groups, which have fueled instability in Central Asia. The new international strategic set-up, which includes the US, Russia and practically all the countries of the region which suffered form

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the subversive and terrorist activity originating in Afghanistan, are now cooperating closely and much more efficiently than in the past, in quelling and preventing such activities in the future. The anti-terrorism campaign could therefore translate into an increased level of stability in the region and would spur new investment. The quick success of the military campaign and the political solution which seems to prevail now in Afghanistan will clearly impress and influence any organization thinking in terms of use of violence and terrorism to advance its political goals. This does not mean that some groups or movements could not try to continue the violent path and the regional upheaval bin Laden has tried to cultivate since the beginning of the 1990s and more so since the murderous attacks in the US. Their behavior could also be influenced by what is commonly called the second stage of the American war on terrorism and which countries or organizations it will target. The Central Asian countries have entered a new era of positive prospects and if they will succeed in coordinating and cooperating not only in the political and economical aspects of their relations, but also in the fight against terrorism, the chances of success will be greatly enhanced.

Notes

1. See Michael Klare, The New Geography of Conflict, Global Policy Forum, June 2001, at <http://www.globalpolicy.org/ security/ natres/generaldebate/2001/0601klar.htm>. 2. See US Department of States Patterns of Global Terrorism, 2000, at <http://www.state.gov/s/ct/ ls/pgtrpt/2000/>. 3. See Decision Brief, Caspian Watch: Russian Power-Plays on Early Oil Hallmark of Kremlin Expansionism Past - and Future? Publications of the Center for Security Policy, No. 95-D 71, 2 October 1995, at . 4. See Eric Pianin, Toxic Chemicals Security Worries Officials, Washington Post, November 12, 2001. 5. See In wake of attacks, gas pipelines told to beef up security measures, Inside FERC's Natural Gas Market Report Newsletter, 28 September 2001, at <http://www.platts.com/features/ussecurity/ gasstoriesnl.shtml>. 6. Ibid. 7. See U. S. Department of Transportation, Office of Pipeline Safety, DOT-RSPA-OPS, Special Concerns, at <http://www.npms.rspa.dot.gov/data/npms_data_down.htm.> 8. See Martin Merzer, Lenny Savino and Sumana Chatterjee, FBI searches for six men who had nuclear, pipeline information, Knight Ridder Newspapers, 30 October 2001. 9. See Alec Appelbaum, Uncertainty Dampens Caspian Basin Investment Climate, EurasiaNet, 4 October 2001, at <http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/ articles/eav100401.shtml> and also Anna Matveeva, The Impact of Instability in Chechnya and Daghestan, The Caspian Crossroads Magazine, Volume 3, Issue No. 3, Winter 1998, at <http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/

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