EE5712 Power System Reliability :: Introduction

Panida Jirutitijaroen

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Outline
About this class Introduction to reliability Basic steps in system reliability analysis Introduction to power system reliability Power system reliability indexes and criterion

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Overview Assessment Scope Objective

ABOUT THIS CLASS

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Scope
Power System Reliability
Electric power System Reliability

Reliability theory applied to power systems Analytical and simulation tools to conduct reliability analysis

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EE5712 Power System Reliability

Road Map
Introduction to power system reliability (1 lec) Probability theory and Reliability theory (2 lec) Stochastic process (1 lec) Analytical methods for reliability analysis (1 lec) Frequency balance technique (1 lec) Simulation methods (1 lec) Single-area reliability analysis (2 lec) Composite system and multi-area reliability (2 lec) Distribution system reliability analysis (1 lec)
Theory

Application

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Objectives
What you will learn from this class 1. Understand basic reliability concepts and reliability measures 2. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a small system using analytical tools. 3. Be able to perform reliability analysis of a large system using simulation tools.

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What is reliability? What causes a system to fail? How to model uncertainties?

INTRODUCTION TO RELIABILITY

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Example 1: You Are The Weakest Link!?!?

"A chain is only as strong as its weakest link Does this mean that system reliability is determined by the least reliable component in the system?
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Example 2: Identical Transmission Lines

Line 1 Line 1

G
Line 2

Load

G
System B

Load

System A

Which system is more reliable? Which system is likely to fail more than another ? Next question is how much?
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Example 3: Non-Identical Transmission Lines

Line 1 Line 1

G
Line 2

Load

G
System B

Load

System A

Which system is more reliable?

Depend on t-line capability to deliver load, generation capacity, load level, how each line perform How to quantify line performance?
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Example 4: Identical Generators

100 100 100 100 100 100

Load 100 MW

Load 100 MW

Load 100 MW

System A

System B

System C

Which system is more reliable? Which system is more cost-effective?

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Example 5: Non-Identical Generators

100 100 100 150 150 300

Load 150 MW

Load 150 MW

Load 150 MW

System A

System B

System C

Which system is more reliable?

Depend on how each generator perform How to quantify generator performance?

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What Is Reliability?
Ability of a component/system to perform its intended function Within a specified period of time Under stated condition Qualitative sense in terms of performance function, time, and surrounding conditions How to quantify reliability?

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Reliability
Relate to the absence of failures, that due to random phenomenon Define numerically as average or mean value Can be treated as a parameter Can be traded off with other parameters such as cost

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What causes a system to fail?

Human factors System design Operation condition Maintenance procedure Deterioration (function of time) Random failures Uncertainties
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How to model Uncertainty?

Probability of failure
Chance that a component will fail Probabilistic value with no unit May be difficult to interpret

Frequency of failure
In terms of number of failure within specified time Easier to predict from history Express in per hour, per day, per year

We will discover later on in this course how to relate frequency of failure to probability of failure
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Example 5: Transmission lines

100 MW 100 MW

G
100 MW

Load 100 MW

G
System B

Load 100 MW

System A

Given that each system has the following level of reliability

System A Failure Probability 0.009 Cost (million SGD) 70

0.01

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Which system is more reliable? Which system is more cost-effective?

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Example 5: Identical Generators

100 100 100 100 100 100

Load 100 MW

Load 100 MW

Load 100 MW

System A

System B
System A B C

System C
Failure Probability 0.001 0.01 0.1 Cost (million SGD) 300 200 100
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If each system has the following level of reliability and cost Which system is more reliable? Which system is more cost-effective?
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Motivations for Quantitative Reliability

To evaluate system performance System design purpose Trade-off reliability with cost Increasing complexity of systems Competitiveness Establish standard in operation procedure

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Objective of the analysis Component modeling System modeling Performance function Reliability Evaluation

BASIC STEPS IN SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

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Objective
Interest to know the likelihood that a component or a system will fail.
Time-to-failure distribution of a component/system.

Helps to predict the failure probability at any point in time For a complex system, need to estimate reliability index for design and operation purposes. Need to start with the component modeling
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Component Modeling
Identify components in the system Describe state of each component
For example, a generator has two states, up or down.

In terms of probability distribution

For example, a generator fails with probability of failure = 0.01.

Stochastic process model

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Observation of A Component
Z(t)

2
1 0

Z(t)
2 1 0

Time

Time
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System Modeling
System configuration/topology How each component interact
C1
C1 C2 C8

C2

C6

C3

C9

C5

C11

C7

C1

C2
C10 C4 C12

Need to know how each device causes a system to fail!

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Performance Function
To evaluate system reliability Recall, Ability of a system to perform its intended function Need to define intended function

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Reliability Evaluation
Each component described by random variables
For example, a generator has 3 capacity output, 100 MW with 0.85 probability, 50 MW with 0.14 probability, 0 MW with 0.01 probability

System states constructed from possible combinations of component states Evaluate performance function of each system state Calculate reliability index
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Functional Zones in Power Systems Objective of Reliability Analysis Levels of Reliability Analysis Power System Reliability Indexes

INTRODUCTION TO POWER SYSTEMS

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Functional Zones of Power Systems

Generation system
Generators Load

Transmission system
High voltage transmission lines

Distribution system
Low voltage transmission lines End users
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Main Components of a Power System

Generation (11 36 KV) Transmission and distribution (110 765 KV) Load (0.12 138 KV)
Industrial customer (23 138 KV) Commercial customer (4.16 34.5 KV) Residential customer (120 240 V)

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Generation Capacity in Singapore

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Transmission and Distribution

Interconnected network Transformers used to step up voltages from generation units to transmission-line. High voltage used when transmitting power to lower I2R loss for better efficiency. Distribution systems can provide power at different voltage levels for different loads.

Transmission network

Distribution network
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North American Electric Power Connections

http://www.nerc.com/regional/NERC_Interconnections_color.jpg
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Singapore Power Grid

400 kV, 230 kV, and 66 kV Full underground cable Four 230 kV zones connected by meshed 400 kV
Zone A B C Maximum Import capacity (MW) 1275 1275 1275

1275
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Load
Varies with time
Moment-to-moment fluctuations Hour-to-hour changes Daily Weekly Seasonal

Typical weekly load curve, data from ERCOT

x 10 6
4

ERCOT Weekly Load Curve from Aug. 19th to Aug. 22, 2006

Load (MW)

Base load counts for less than a half of peak load.

Sun.

Mon. Day

Tue.

Wed.

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Singapore Electric Demand

Peak demand in 2007 is 5946 MW. Electricity demand in 2007 is 41134 GWh.

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Operational Conditions
Secure operation Component physical limit. How to operate the system securely?

Economic operation Cost of operation differs by type of fuel. How to operate the system with least cost?

Reliable operation Power Quality, interruptions, brownout and blackout How to operate the system reliably?
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Uncertainties in Power Systems

Generation
Generating units with failure and repair rates Generating capacity associated with probability

Transmission line capacity

Transmission line with failure and repair rates Transmission line capacity associated with probability

System load
Vary with time Construct load distribution from history
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Objective of Reliability Analysis

The function of power system is to serve load. We want to have, Generation > Load For most of the time, With least cost.

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Three Areas of Reliability Analysis

1. Generating capacity reliability
Concern with generation adequacy

2. Composite system reliability

Consider both generation and transmission lines

3. Distribution system reliability

Local network connected to end-users

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Generating Capacity Reliability

1. Single-area reliability analysis
All generators and loads are connected to a single bus

2. Multi-area reliability analysis

Generators and loads within area are connected to a single bus Consider tie-lines between areas Limitation of intra-area transmission are included when determining inter-area transmission capability
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Single Area Reliability Analysis

Interest to find out the ability of existing generation to serve load Single bus analysis Generators and loads are within the same bus Each generators has their own performance indexes

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Composite System Reliability

Concern with generation and transmission capability adequacy High-voltage transmission lines May include highvoltage transformers, circuit breakers
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http://www.powerworld.com/images/7-bus%20Oneline.jpg

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Multi-Area Reliability Analysis

Interest to find out if area generation or tie-line capability are adequate to serve load Consider thousands of nodes then simplify the system to small workable nodes (areas) Generator and load from different nodes within the same area are grouped into one. Tie-line capability between areas
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Distribution System Reliability

Interest to find out the reliability level at load point Network configuration/ topology Analysis takes into account reliability of the following low-voltage components,
Transformers Circuit breakers
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Reliability indexes Reliability criterion

POWER SYSTEMS RELIABILITY INDEXES AND CRITERION

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Power Systems Reliability Indexes

Deterministic indexes
Do not take into account the uncertainties that affect reliability Simple calculation Require less data

Probabilistic indexes
Reflect uncertainties in the system Require failure statistics of the devices
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Deterministic Indexes
Operating reserve margin
Excess generation capacity in case of emergency

Percentage reserve
Amount of reserve capacity as a percentage of the total peak load

Reserve margin as the largest unit online

Amount of reserve equals to the capacity of the largest unit online
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Probabilistic Indexes
Loss of load probability
Probability that generation will not meet demand in a year Commonly shown as number of hours/days. (by multiply LOLP by number of hours/days in a year)

Loss of load frequency

How often does the system fail in a year

Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS) or Expected Unserved Energy (EUE)

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Why need reliability criterion?

Develop standardized quantity Planning and Operation purposes
To avoid catastrophic failures

Design problems

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Power Systems Reliability Criterion

Deterministic criteria
N-m contingency analysis System with N components should be able to serve peak load when loss m components Sometimes called security analysis

Probabilistic criteria
Loss of load expectation, for example, 1 day in 10 years
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Cost-Benefit Analysis
High reliability achieved with high cost Is it worthwhile to have high reliability?

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Summary
We know what reliability is We know a bit about power system reliability We need to know
Probability theory Reliability theory Random processes

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Reading Materials
Review basic probability theory
Random variables Probability rules (addition, multiplication, Conditional probability Probability distribution functions

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