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Primary Credit Analysts: Patricia A Kwan, New York (1) 212-438-6256; patricia.kwan@standardandpoors.com Mark Button, London (44) 20-7176-7045; mark.button@standardandpoors.com Secondary Contacts: Kevin T Ahern, New York (1) 212-438-7160; kevin.ahern@standardandpoors.com Rodney A Clark, FSA, New York (1) 212-438-7245; rodney.clark@standardandpoors.com Jose M Perez-Gorozpe, Mexico City (52) 55-5081-4442; jose.perez-gorozpe@standardandpoors.com Michael J Vine, Melbourne (61) 3-9631-2102; michael.vine@standardandpoors.com
Table Of Contents
Global Indicative SACP Centers In The 'a' Range North America: Diversity, Brands, And Capital Provide Strength Western Europe: Generally Strong, Despite Sovereign-Related Risks In The Periphery CEEMEA: Economic, Political, And Financial Risks Are Generally Higher Latin America: A Tale Of Two Countries Asia Pacific: Higher Financial Risks Against Stronger Business Profiles Financial Flexibility Ratios: Coverage And Leverage Global Convergence Is More Likely Related Criteria And Research
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Our global review includes illustrations and analysis of insurers' indicative stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) by regions, insurance industry and country risk assessments (IICRAs), sectors, and developed/developing markets, along with broadly summarized features unique to each region. We use the indicative SACP rather than the financial strength rating (FSR) to assess the global differences and similarities among insurers because indicative SACP (a sort of "preliminary" profile) measures credit fundamentals prior to group or government support and sovereign risk
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considerations that can limit ratings at the sovereign level. We've excluded entities that we haven't assigned indicative SACPs, such as core or highly strategically important subsidiaries as defined by our criteria. We also provide global median ratios based on our baseline three-year average on coverage and leverage forecasts for 2013 to 2015. These credit ratios--EBITDA fixed coverage and financial leverage--aren't meant to be benchmarks but rather to show certain characteristics for the purpose of global comparisons.
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Geographic diversity is a distinct feature to this region, with more than 70% of our life and property/casualty insurers having a significant geographic footprint, compared to 11% globally. Being one of the largest insurance markets in the world, North America provides insurers ample opportunity to gain meaningful presence across continuous states. Insurance penetration in North America is high and has remained steady historically relative to GDP. The minimal cultural barriers also support insurers' ability to expand their operations to various states. We view differentiation of brand or reputation as positive for about 30% of the rated North America insurers (mainly among health insurance companies), compared to 20% globally. We believe the high percentage of positive assessments reflects the brand equity of the Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) trademarks combined with BCBS's generally well-established deep local market presence, which has led to long-standing relationships with the broker and care-provider communities. Ultimately this has led to strong brand recognition and relatively high member persistency. North America insurers generally have more-robust capital and earnings than those in other regions. During the next three years beginning 2013, we expect more than 75% of insurers to maintain capital and earnings at and above "strong," compared to 43% globally. One reason for this is a well-developed and mature capital market that allows insurers to raise debt easily and efficiently at low cost relative to hybrids and common equity (debt is treated as capital in North America for up to 20% of total capitalization). The deep financial market also provides an array of investment
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choices with different credit quality profiles to limit mismatches in the duration of assets and liabilities and to control asset risk adequately among insurers. Coincidentally, this deep financial market also lessens the need to invest in sovereign debt, unlike the situation in emerging countries or the peripheral European nations, which generally have shallower financial markets, leaving their insurers with fewer investment choices. Interestingly, many of North America's highly capitalized insurers are mutual companies (owned by policyholders rather than shareholders). This ownership structure allows them to retain excess capital as opposed to returning it to shareholders in the form of dividends. We believe the nonmutual insurers are also committed to holding on to excess capital in support of credit ratings, which can lower their funding costs given their moderately high financial leverage relative to their nonmutual global counterparts. Our assessment of relatively favorable IICRA among North America insurers (especially those with sizable life business in the U.S. and Canada) also helps explain their overall strong to very strong business risk profiles. The low to intermediate IICRA scores largely stemmed from moderate product risk (U.S. health, U.S. and Canadian life), high barriers to entry (U.S. health, Canadian life), and an effective institutional framework. We view more than 64% of property/casualty (re)insurers and 72% of health insurers in North America as having a moderate risk to high risk position, compared to 42% globally. For many (re)insurers, the negative assessment largely stems from material exposure to property catastrophe risk. For casualty writers, we see moderate adverse reserve development from long-tailed business or legacy liability, such as workers' compensation or asbestos and environmental claims. We also believe many of our rated health insurers are highly sensitive to possible negative impacts from regulatory policies and market pressures for those lacking geographical diversity.
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region have financial risk profiles of at least moderately strong. Relative strength in ERM is also present.
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Industry and country risks are relatively benign for most insurers operating in Western Europe. Insurers exposed to the eurozone periphery, however, have seen increasing risks in the operating environment in recent years that weigh on our assessment of the business risk profile for 10% of insurers in the region. We believe our ratings coverage in certain markets is somewhat concentrated toward insurers that outperform their peers, which contributes to a modestly more-favorable assessment of operating performance for our rated universe of insurers across the region as a whole. Interestingly, the proportion of insurers with a favorable assessment of operating performance (23% compared with 20% globally) is broadly consistent with our expectations and assumptions in our criteria, which identify outperformers as insurers demonstrating top-quartile performance. The relative strength in distribution for Western European insurers reflects the importance of long-term bank ties and the continuing role of bancassurance groups (in which banks distribute the products of their related insurance companies) in certain markets such as Spain, Italy, and France, as well as use of tied agents in other countries. We note, however, that wide differences exist between markets, for example, with insurers in the U.K. having limited control over distribution given the prevalence of brokers and the increasing role of Internet aggregators in commoditized lines.
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We continue to see the composite business model (insurers with diverse businesses across life and property/casualty products) as a common feature in markets such as Germany, Austria, Italy, and The Netherlands. Many of the composite reinsurers are also based in Western Europe. Diversification across both life and property/casualty lines and/or noninsurance business--where it contributes significantly to insurers' earnings--enhances our assessment of competitive position owing to the diversification of risks. In the region as a whole, we see 30% of insurers benefiting from this business diversity, compared with 17% globally. A strong balance sheet is a prerequisite for the highest ratings, and we believe capital adequacy is generally robust in the region. Capital adequacy assessments in Western Europe are broadly distributed but with less representation at the highest levels than other regions. Conversely, only 7% of rated insurers in Western Europe operate with a capital base that is deficient at a 'BBB' level of confidence, according to our risk-based capital model, compared with 12% globally. Our study finds that insurers in this region tend to have higher-quality bond portfolios despite weaknesses in the eurozone periphery. We believe this reflects a number of features, including product preferences, regulation, less diversity of available fixed-income assets to match long-term liabilities relative to markets such as the U.S., and highly rated sovereigns relative to many developing markets. These features have contributed to a high weighting toward government bonds in investment portfolios, supporting credit quality but weighing on investment yields and limiting portfolio diversity. Financial flexibility is largely a supportive rating factor with assessments of at least adequate for 92% of Western European insurers--broadly consistent with the global picture. With debt outstanding for only about half of our rated insurers in the region, the amount of leverage is not generally a significant constraint on ratings. For insurers that employ debt in their capital structure, we observe less leverage than in markets such as the U.S. and better quality of capital, with a greater proportion of hybrids and less senior debt, largely because of regulations. Rated insurers in Western Europe exhibit a more positive bias in the distribution of ERM assessments compared with other regions. Our ERM assessments are at least "adequate with strong risk controls" on 45% of the rated population, almost 20 percentage points higher than any other region. We believe Western European insurers have made great strides in improving their ERM in recent years, thanks in part to the EU's Solvency II Directive.
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Industry and country risk factors weigh on our business risk profile assessments for 41% of insurers in the region, compared with only 6% globally. This reflects our view that the operating environment in a large proportion of CEEMEA markets is less benign owing to higher country risks. As a result, developments in the economic and political landscape and financial system risk are more sensitive rating factors in CEEMEA than in most other regions. We view competitive position most commonly as adequate, with almost all insurers in this region within the strong to less-than-adequate range. Relative to most other regions, with the exception of APAC, control over distribution is a more common feature of business models, reflecting the importance of tied agents. Although we see a lower proportion of monoline insurers in CEEMEA, many insurers lack material scale and diversity, constraining our business risk profile assessments. Capital adequacy assessments are unevenly distributed across the region, with a greater proportion of insurer balance sheets at both ends of the scale. We observe a high proportion of extremely strong outcomes and a greater share of insurers with capital deficiencies at a 'BBB' level of confidence, highlighting the contrasting profiles of rated insurers. This feature is more pronounced across CEEMEA given the broad diversity of markets, regulation, and cultures. Given the developing nature of many of these markets and the limited scale and diversity of most insurers, we view our capital model as understating risks in all cases. This heavily constrains our capital and earnings assessments.
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CEEMEA insurers generally have greater risk in their investment portfolios. This reflects both lack of investment diversity and greater exposure to high-risk assets. The weighted average credit quality of investment portfolios of almost one in five insurers in the region is less than investment grade. It is also not uncommon in certain Middle Eastern markets to see high allocations to equity and property assets, which add volatility to capital. These risk considerations affect our financial risk profile assessments in 57% of cases, compared with 44% globally. Use of leverage to support capital needs is much less common in CEEMEA compared with other regions, resulting in generally more favorable assessments of financial leverage and fixed-charge coverage. This reflects both the existing balance-sheet strength of many insurers and the region's relatively undeveloped debt capital markets. Although we do not see this more limited access to capital as an overt negative for a materially higher proportion of insurers in CEEMEA--particularly given their existing capital strength--we see this dynamic providing less upside to financial risk profiles. ERM assessments on rated insurers in CEEMEA remain generally lower than those on their Western European and global peers. Moreover, CEEMEA is the only region globally that has no insurers with ERM assessments in the highest two categories (strong and very strong). Nevertheless, improvements in ERM practices have led to a reduction in the number of weak scores in recent years, resulting in adequate assessments for almost 90% of CEEMEA insurers.
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Our IICRA scores in Latin America range from moderate to intermediate, somewhat limiting its insurers' business positions. This is partly due to the low income levels measured by GDP per capital across the region. On the positive side, these IICRA scores are generally supported by fairly adequate regulatory frameworks, satisfactory industry profitability, relatively low product risk, high barriers to entry in most markets, and good growth prospects. One factor that supports Latin American insurers' financial profiles is adequate financial flexibility given the absence of debt and adequate access to external capital, such as reinsurance. Liquidity is generally strong. Regulators in Brazil and Mexico establish basic investment policies for insurance companies requiring them to hold a high proportion of their investment portfolio in high investment-grade domestic securities. This implies insurers are more inclined to invest in domestic government securities (which are generally liquid but rated 'A-' at best) rather than domestic corporate securities because government bonds, on average, are rated higher and viewed as less risky. Inadvertently, this has led to less-favorable investment diversification and modestly lower credit quality relative to other major regions. Moreover, we do not expect regulatory investment rules to change in the near future. Capital adequacy for many of our rated Latin American insurers is moderately strong, with many having capital adequacy levels with redundancy in line with a 'BBB' level and above. In Brazil, this is mainly because most rated entities are start-ups and so are more willing to maintain good capital-adequacy ratios, given the local regulatory requirements. In Mexico, good capitalization levels result from local subsidiaries following their parents' capitalization
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policies, leading to redundancy levels significantly above the 'BBB' standard. Also aiding capital adequacy to some extent are local regulatory capitalization requirements, which in our opinion are fairly conservative. Furthermore, implementing the Solvency II standard during the next two years will support good capitalization levels for Mexican insurers. One factor that partially offsets our capital adequacy assessment for Latin American insurer is the relative size of capital, which in some case is fairly small.
Despite the spread of ratings in more than 10 countries in the region, APAC is at a relative disadvantage in our assessment of geographic diversity, with a positive assessment generally applicable only for insurers in China and
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those with regional diversity of premiums. These include insurers with offshore operations based in Australia and Hong Kong. We do not view markets such as Japan, despite its scale and regional economic diversity, as geographically diverse enough for a positive assessment. As a result, only 5% of APAC insurers have a positive assessment of geographic diversity compared with 38% globally. Under our assessment of additional sources of capital volatility, APAC has a bias to neutral, whereas the global distribution leans toward negative. APAC's higher score partly reflects fewer reinsurance sector ratings. Our study of management and governance achieved a higher bias to satisfactory at 78% compared with 62% globally, where there was a greater spread between strong and fair. The slightly stronger score for APAC reflects the ratings bias to the top end of the market, and smaller ratings coverage in less-developed markets. Despite some pressure on capital and earnings, ratings on Japan- and Taiwan-based life insurers were generally supported under our revised criteria, in part from a positive forward view of capital and earnings and improved conditions in investment markets. Other ratings actions were related to our reassessment of parent support under our group ratings methodology and revised holding company notching.
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