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by Simon Hunt CEO Simon Hunt Strategic Services for ICSG Meeting in Lisbon on 24th April, 2008
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Taken together with possible declines in the prices of many assets from unusually elevated levels, and the risk of a sharp rise in household savings rates from unusually low levels in many countries, the potential for a substantial impact on global economic activity should not be under-estimated. Just as the real and financial sectors interacted on the way up, so they might well do so on the way back down. William R White, Economic Advisor and Head of Monetary and Economic Department of the bank for International Settlements, Basle, Switzerland
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Source: www.shadows.com
Source: www.shadows.com
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US Money Supply M3
Source: www.shadows.com
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50 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08
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59
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Leading indicators
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Incubation/Transition
Current cycle
Jul 46 to May 80 (6-mth av., l.h.scale, lower time axis) May 80 to date (Monthly, r.h.scale, upper time axis)
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Tony Plummer
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Copper
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Asias Consumption
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East-West Index
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China
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1430 1653 1900 2200 2600 225 260 275 290 305
1050 1218 1300 1350 1400 110 130 130 130 140
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Global Trends
1. Illogical Consumption Growth Rates Being Used 2. How China & India will NOT Save the World 3. What Actually Do We Mean by Consumption?
Simon H
Source: ICSG
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Forecasts
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