Traffic Information Estimation

Based on Cellular Network
maatio
m
onn Methods
th
hod B
Bas
Data

102 11


Traffic Information Estimation Methods Based on Cellular Network Data

Student: Chi-Hua Chen

Advisors: Chi-Chun Lo

! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Ming-Feng Chang

T
A Thesis
Submitted to Department
Management and Finance
tmen
ent of
of Information
In
Manag
Ma
College
Management
ollege
ge of Managemen
Manage
National Chiao Tung University
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the Degree of
Doctor of Philosophy
in
Information Management
November 2013
Hsinchu, Taiwan, the Republic of China

! 102 11

(Intelligent
Transportation System, ITS)
lularr Floating Vehicle
Vehi
(Cellular
Data, CFVD)

er (HO)-based)(Fingerprint
(H
HO)-based)
)

((Handover
A)-bba d)

Positioning Algorithm (FPA)-based)(Cell

Probe (CP)-based)

)(
h Indication, RSSI)(Call
RS
(Received Signal Strength
Arrival, CA)
(HO)(Normal Location Update, NLU)
(Periodic Location Update, PLU))()
(Vehicle
Detector, VD)
97.48%

II

Traffic Information Estimation Methods Based on Cellular

Network Data
Student: Chi-Hua Chen

Advisors: Dr. Chi-Chun Lo

Dr. Ming-Feng Chang

Department of Information Management and Finance

Nation Chiao Tung University

Abstract
Information and communication technologies have improved the quality of
Intelligent Transportation Systems
estimating from Cellular Floating
ms (ITS). By esti
Vehicle Data (CFVD) is more
cost-effective,
re co
cos
st effeective,, and
d easi
eeasier to acquire than traditional
ways. This study proposes three
estimation methods which include
ree vehicle
vehicle spe
speed
peed
d est
estim
estimat
Handover (HO)-based method,
tho
od Fingerprint
Fingerpr
erprin
rint Positioning
Position
nin Algorithm (FPA)-based
method, and Cell Probe (CP)-based
the cellular network signalings.
based
asedd method
met
ethod too analyze
aanal
Moreover, some analytical models
odels
els are proposed to
t eevaluate the ration of cellular
network signalings (e.g., received signal strength indication,
call arrival, HO, normal
i
location update, and periodic location update) and traffic information (e.g., traffic
flow, traffic density, and vehicle speed). In experiments, this study compares the real
traffic information of Vehicle Detector (VD) with the estimated traffic information by
the proposed methods. The experiment results show that the accuracy of vehicle speed
estimation by CP-based method which is 97.48% is higher than HO-based method and
FPA-based method. Therefore, the CP-based method can be used to estimate vehicle
speed from CFVD for ITS.

Keyword: Intelligent Transportation System, Cellular Network, Traffic Flow

Estimation, Traffic Density Estimation, Vehicle Speed Estimation

III

Acknowledgment
I would first like to express my sincere thanks to my advisors, Dr. Chi-Chun Lo
and Dr. Ming-Feng Chang. Thanks also to the oral examiners, Dr. Chorng-Shyong
Ong, Dr. Shihchieh Chou, Dr. Fang-Yie Leu, and Dr. Duen-Ren Liu. Without my
advisors supervision and oral examiners suggestions, I cannot complete this thesis.

Special thanks and appreciation to Dr. Yi-Bing Lin, Dr. Hsu-Yang Kung, Dr.
Hui-Fei Lin, Dr. Che-I Wu, Dr. Bon-Yeh Lin, Dr. Ding-Yuan Cheng, Dr. Po-Huan
Chiu, Dr. Hao-Hsiang Ku, Dr. Chung-Yung Chia, Dr. Hsu-Chia Chang, Dr.
Chun-Chieh Huang, Dr. Wan-Jia Chen, Dr. Szu-Yin Lin, and Ms. Ting-Huan Kuo.
Without their ingenious guidance and helpful discussions, this thesis would not have
been possible.

I would also like to express

thanks
colleagues in the Communication
ress
ss m
my tha
anks to
to the co
colle
Network Laboratory and Internet
In
ntternett Communication
Commu
Com
C
muni
nicatio
icat
ca on
n Laboratory, Yin-Jung Lu,
Chih-Chien Lu, Hsiang-Ting
Kao, Ping
Ping-Hsien
Ho, Ch
Che-Hao
Lei, Mian-Yuan Yang,
g K
ng-H
Hsien H
C
he
Fang-Yi Lee, Chun-Hao Lin, Yen-Szu
Wang, Ya-Ching Yang,
Yen
en-Szzu
u Liu,
L Yu-Rou
Yu Ro Wu,
Wu Ya-Fen
Y
Dai-Rong Lee, Kai-Ming Wang,
Chia-Hung
Hsiang for their encouragement and
g, and
nd Chi
Hung
ng Hsian
H
suggestions. Great appreciation to my friends in National Chiao Tung University who
inspire me to have confidence to accomplish this thesis.

Finally, I am grateful to my dear parents and my brothers for their total support
and unfailing love in these years.

This study was supported by the National Science Council of Taiwan under
Grant No. NSC 101-2420-H-009-004-DR.

Chi-Hua Chen
National Chiao Tung University
Hsinchu, Taiwan
November 05th, 2013

IV

Table of Contents

............................................................................................................ II
Abstract............................................................................................................III
Acknowledgment............................................................................................. IV
Table of Contents ..............................................................................................V
List of Figures...............................................................................................VIII
List of Tables.................................................................................................... XI
Chapter 1 Introduction..................................................................................... 1
1.1 Research Background..............................................................................
1
.................
1.2 Motivation ...............................................................................................
3
........
. ......
1.3 Thesis Outline..........................................................................................
3
..... ................. ......
. .....
Chapter 2 Literature Review
4
vieew ...........................................................................
.................. .. .....
2.1 Intelligent Transportation
4
tatio
tion
n System
S
Syystem ...........................................................
Sys
......... ......
2.1.1 Vehicle Detector..............................................................................
4
...........................
..........
2.1.2 Global Position System-Based Probe Car Reporting ..................... 5
2.1.3 Cellular Floating Vehicle Data........................................................ 6
2.2 Cellular Networks.................................................................................... 8
2.2.1 System Components........................................................................ 8
2.2.2 Mobility Management..................................................................... 9
2.3 Traffic Information Collection in Accordance with Cellular Network
Signalings.............................................................................................. 10
2.3.1 Monitoring Control Channel......................................................... 10
2.3.2 Mobile Positioning Algorithm. ..................................................... 11
2.3.3 Speed Estimation from Handover Events ..................................... 12
2.3.4 Summary ....................................................................................... 13
Chapter 3 Traffic Information Estimation ................................................... 14
V

3.1 Handover-Based Method....................................................................... 14

3.1.1 Speed Estimation from Handover Events ..................................... 15
3.1.2 An Analytic Model for Speed Report Rate ................................... 16
3.2 Fingerprint Positioning Algorithm-Based Method................................ 19
3.2.1 Location Determination by Using Fingerprint Positioning
Algorithm ..................................................................................... 20
3.2.2 Speed Estimation by Using Fingerprint Positioning Algorithm ... 21
3.2.3 Mathematical models for Estimating the Optimal Sampling
Period ........................................................................................... 21
3.3 Cell Probe-Based Method...................................................................... 27
3.3.1 Traffic Flow Estimation ................................................................ 27
3.3.2 Traffic Density Estimation ............................................................ 30
3.3.3 Vehicle Speed Estimation
36
ation .............................................................
.........
Chapter 4 Experiment Results
40
sults
ts and Analyses
An
naly
yses ...............................................
y
.......
4.1 Handover-Based Method.......................................................................
40
Methhod.............................
.. ..
4.1.1 The Error Ratio
Estimation...............................
40
tio of Vehicle
hiclee Speed
S
Estim
Estimat
st
4.1.2 The Analysis of Speed
42
Sp
Speeeed
S
d Report
R rtt Rate
Rat ..............................................
.......
4.2 Fingerprint Positioningg Algorithm-Based
52
Algorith
gorithm-Base
Based Method................................
M
4.2.1 Location Determination Accuracy
................................................ 53
A
4.2.2 Speed Estimation Accuracy .......................................................... 54
4.2.3 Numerical Analysis for Speed Reporting Rate ............................. 56
4.3 Cell Probe-Based Method...................................................................... 62
4.3.1 Numerical Analysis....................................................................... 62
4.3.2 Simulation Results ........................................................................ 67
4.4 Comparisons with the Proposed Methods ............................................. 75
4.4.1 The Comparison of Deployment and Computation Cost.............. 75
4.4.2 The Comparison of Vehicle Speed Estimation Accuracy ............. 78
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Future Work..................................................... 80
5.1 Conclusions ........................................................................................... 80
5.2 Future Work ........................................................................................... 81
VI

References ........................................................................................................ 82
Appendix A ...................................................................................................... 88

VII

List of Figures
Figure. 1. The architecture of cellular networks ................................................. 8
Figure. 2. The architecture of intelligent transportation system ....................... 14
Figure. 3. The cell switching of a moving MS on a highway........................... 15
Figure. 4. The timing diagram of a speed report generated .............................. 18
Figure. 5. The architecture of the intelligent transportation system based on a
fingerprint-positioning algorithm .................................................... 19
Figure. 6. The timing diagram for vehicle movement and communication
behavior ........................................................................................... 23
Figure. 7. The space diagram for vehicle movement and NLU on the road..... 28
Figure. 8. The timing diagram for handover events.......................................... 29
Figure. 9. The timing diagram forr vehicle movement
and CA on the road ...... 30
move
Figure. 10. The scenario diagram
movement
gram
m for vehicle
veh e mov
m
movem and PLU events on the
road when there
two consecutive
PLU events. 33
re is no
o calll be
between
etween
n tw
c
Figure. 11. The timing diagram
vehicle
graa for vehicl
icle
le movement
moveem
meent and PLU events on the
road when there
PLU events. 33
re is no cal
call
alll bbetween
twe two consecutive
co
Figure. 12. The scenario diagram
movement
gram
m for
f vehicle mov
movem and PLU events on the
road when there are several calls be
between two consecutive PLU
events............................................................................................. 34
Figure. 13. The time diagram for vehicle movement and PLU events on the
road when there are several calls between two consecutive PLU
events............................................................................................. 35
Figure. 14. The considered factors in CP-based method .................................. 38
Figure. 15. CP-based algorithm ........................................................................ 39
Figure. 16. The experiment environment in Highway No. 1 in Taiwan ........... 40
Figure. 17. The flow-velocity curve recorded by a VD on No. 1 Highway,
Taiwan ........................................................................................... 42
Figure. 18. The speed report rate of CFVD ...................................................... 44
Figure. 19. The effects of call holding time on the speed report rates of
CFVD ............................................................................................ 44
VIII

Figure. 20. The effects of vehicle speed on the CHT and CAR ....................... 46
Figure. 21. The effects of vehicle speed on the CFVD speed report rate ......... 47
Figure. 22. The handover locations and the affected area of a traffic accident 50
Figure. 23. The speed reports from the CFVD of Cell1 of length 1.5 km........ 51
Figure. 24. The speed reports from the CFVD of Cell1 of length 1 km........... 52
Figure. 25. The speed reports from the CFVD of Cell1 of length 0.5 km........ 52
Figure. 26. The experiment environment in Expressway No. 66 in Taiwan..... 53
Figure. 27. The experiment results of location determination with different
algorithms...................................................................................... 54
Figure. 28. The comparison of the actual speed obtained by GPS and estimated
speed obtained by FPA .................................................................. 56
Figure. 29. The reporting rates with different sampling period ........................ 57
Figure. 30. The waste computing rates for different
sampling periods ............ 57
diff
Figure. 31. The optimal sampling
pling
ng time by report
ep rates
rat and waste computing
rates................................................................................................
58
..... ................. ......
.. ......
Figure. 32. The real trafficc in
information
nformation (average
(av
(aver
verage vvehicle
eh
hic speeds and traffic
flows) during February
the fixed VD ...................... 59
bruary
uary
y inn 2008 from
fro
fr
th
Figure. 33. The speed reporting
February in 2008 by using VD
ting
g rates
tes dduring
i Febr
Februar
logs ................................................................................................
60
................
Figure. 34. The real traffic information (average vehicle speeds and traffic
flows) during July in 2008 from the fixed VD.............................. 60
Figure. 35. The estimated reporting rates based on VD data............................ 61
Figure. 36. The report rates with different call holding times .......................... 61
Figure. 37. The report rates with different lengths of road segment................. 62
Figure. 38. The real traffic information (vehicle speed and traffic density) from
VD ................................................................................................. 64
Figure. 39. The estimated traffic density in the specific cell by using VD logs64
Figure. 40. The real vehicle speed and the estimated vehicle speed................. 65
Figure. 41. The correlation of real vehicle speed and vehicle speed estimation
accuracy......................................................................................... 66

IX

Figure. 42. The relation between the amount of PLU events and traffic density
with different vehicle speeds......................................................... 67
Figure. 43. Trace-driven Simulation for the traffic information estimations from
cellular-network-based data .......................................................... 68
Figure. 44. The distribution of cells, location areas, and VDs in simulation
experiment ..................................................................................... 69
Figure. 45. The real-time traffic information on the road segment covered by
Cell1 .............................................................................................. 72
Figure. 46. The comparison of actual and estimated traffic density on the road
segment covered by Cell1 ............................................................. 73
Figure. 47. The comparison of FPA-based method and HO-based method ..... 77
Figure. 48. The comparison of vehicle speed estimation accuracy .................. 79

List of Tables

Table. 1. The comparison of VD technologies.................................................... 5

Table. 2. The definition of notation................................................................... 22
Table. 3. The error ratio of speed estimation by HO-based method ................. 41
Table. 4. The experiment results of location determination with different
algorithms ........................................................................................ 54
Table. 5. The experiment results of speed estimation with different
algorithms ........................................................................................ 55
Table. 6. The comparisons of traffic flow estimation accuracy ........................ 70
Table. 7. The comparisons of traffic density estimation accuracy.................... 71
Table. 8. The comparisons of vehicle speed
estimation accuracy .................... 74
p
Table. 9. t-test for real vehiclee speed
eed and estima
estimated vehicle speed................... 75
Table. 10. The speed estimation
method............... 76
ation
on accuracies
accuraacies of the
th CP-based
CP
C
Table. 11. The comparison
with
and HO-based method ... 77
nw
wi
th F
FPA-based
b ed method
metth
hood an
Table. 12. The comparisonn with the
78
he proposed
ppro
roposed methods....................................
methods
metho
m
Table. 13. The comparison of vehicle
accuracy .................... 79
hiicle
i e speed estimation
estimatio
estim
esti

XI