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NZHTA REPORT
June 2007 Volume 10 Number 2
This report should be referenced as follows: Weir, R, Day, P, Ali W. Risk factors for breast cancer in women. NZHTA Report 2007; 10(2). 2007 ISBN ISBN ISSN New Zealand Health Technology Assessment (NZHTA) 978-1-877455-11-7 (Print) 978-1-877455-12-4 (Web) 1174-5142
CONTRIBUTION BY AUTHORS
This report was authored by Robert Weir and Peter Day who conducted the critical appraisals and prepared the report.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Susan Bidwell (Information Specialist) developed and undertook the search strategy and coordinated retrieval of documents. Melanie Hay provided document formatting. Acknowledgment is made of the contribution of Professor Ann Richardson, Epidemiologist and Chair of Public Health, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, who undertook peer review of a late draft and provided valuable comments on the report. The Canterbury Medical Library assisted with the retrieval of articles. NZHTA is a Research Unit of the University of Otago funded under contract to the New Zealand Ministry of Health. This report was commissioned by Madeleine Wall, Clinical Leader Breast Cancer Aotearoa, National Screening Unit of New Zealands Ministry of Health.
DISCLAIMER
New Zealand Health Technology Assessment (NZHTA) takes great care to ensure the information supplied within the project timeframe is accurate, but neither NZHTA, the University of Otago, nor the contributors involved can accept responsibility for any errors or omissions. The reader should always consult the original database from which each abstract is derived, along with the original articles, before making decisions based on a document or abstract. All responsibility for action based on any information in this report rests with the reader. NZHTA and the University of Otago accept no liability for any loss of whatever kind, or damage, arising from reliance in whole or part, by any person, corporate or natural, on the contents of this report. This document is not intended as personal health advice. People seeking individual medical advice are referred to their physician. The views expressed in this report are those of NZHTA and do not necessarily represent those of the University of Otago or the New Zealand Ministry of Health. This review was commissioned by Madeleine Wall, on behalf of the New Zealand Ministry of Health. NZHTA is a Research Unit of the University of Otago and is funded under contract by the New Zealand Ministry of Health.
COPYRIGHT
This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1994 no part may be reproduced by any process without written permission from New Zealand Health Technology Assessment. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be directed to the Director, New Zealand Health Technology Assessment, Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences, P O Box 4345, Christchurch, New Zealand.
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CONTACT DETAILS
New Zealand Health Technology Assessment (NZHTA) Department of Public Health and General Practice Christchurch School of Medicine and Health Sciences PO Box 4345 Christchurch New Zealand Tel: +64 3 364 3696 Fax: +64 3 364 3697 Email: nzhta@chmeds.ac.nz Web Site: http://nzhta.chmeds.ac.nz/
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Data sources
Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Current Contents, and PubMed (last 60 days) were searched for both primary studies and systematic reviews/meta-analyses. Additional searches of the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), and the HTA databases were carried out for systematic reviews/meta-analyses. Searches were limited to English language material from 1996 to end of January 2006 inclusive.
Selection criteria
Studies were included if they included women who were assessed for breast cancer, had at least 20 human participants, included a risk factor of interest and expressed their results in the form of a rate ratio, risk ratio or odds ratio. Systematic reviews were preferentially included and observational designs were only included for the time period beyond key systematic reviews. Excluded studies included non-systematic reviews, abstracts, letters, editorials, commentaries, superseded publications and studies published before 1996. Of more than 2,861 articles identified by the search strategy, 263 articles were retrieved as full text from which a final group of 139 studies were identified as eligible for appraisal and inclusion in the review.
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Other factors appeared to have a moderate level of increased risk (RR 1.5-2.0): heavy alcohol intake
Some risk factors appeared to have modest levels of increased risk (RR 1.0-1.5): nulliparity post menopausal obesity hormone replacement therapy current use of oral contraceptives or recent use of oral contraceptives high total energy intake
Finally, for some risk factors the level of increased risk was difficult to determine: early menarche (likely to be relatively modest) xenoestrogens phytoestrogens stilboestrol
MeSH headings
Breast neoplasms, risk factors, risk assessment, obesity, obesity-morbid, hormone replacement therapy, estrogen replacement therapy, exp diet, exp food, dietary fat, exp contraceptives-oral, parity, menarche, alcohol drinking, alcoholism, carcinoma in situ, carcinoma-lobular, carcinoma-lobular, fibroadenoma, neoplasms-second primary, neoplasm recurrence-local
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CONTRIBUTION BY AUTHORS ..................................................................................................................... I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................... I DISCLAIMER ............................................................................................................................................... I COPYRIGHT ................................................................................................................................................ I CONTACT DETAILS .................................................................................................................................... II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. III TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................. V LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................................................VII LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................................................................VIII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................................IX CHAPTER 1: BACKGROUND 1 BURDEN OF DISEASE FROM BREAST CANCER IN NEW ZEALAND ................................................................. 1 REVIEW QUESTION .................................................................................................................................... 2 REVIEW SCOPE .......................................................................................................................................... 3 STRUCTURE OF REPORT ............................................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER 2: METHODOLOGY 4 SELECTION CRITERIA................................................................................................................................. 4 SEARCH STRATEGY ................................................................................................................................... 4 STUDY SELECTION..................................................................................................................................... 5 APPRAISAL OF STUDIES .............................................................................................................................. 6 KEY OUTCOME MEASURES FOR PRIMARY STUDIES .................................................................................... 6 LIMITATIONS OF THE REVIEW .................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 3: PAST HISTORY OF BREAST CANCER 8 SECONDARY RESEARCH ............................................................................................................................ 8 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS ...................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER 4: LESIONS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RISK OF BREAST CANCER 11 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 11 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 11 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 5: INCREASED BREAST DENSITY 13 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 13 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 13 CHAPTER 6: NULLIPARITY 19 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 19 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS ................................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 7: EARLY MENARCHE 24 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 24 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 8: POST MENOPAUSAL OBESITY 29 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 29 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 29 CHAPTER 9: HORMONE REPLACEMENT THERAPY 35 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 35 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 10: HORMONAL CONTRACEPTIVES 37 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 37
RISK FACTORS FOR BREAST CANCER IN WOMEN
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PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 37 CHAPTER 11: OTHER EXOGENOUS HORMONES 51 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 51 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 12: DIETARY FACTORS 59 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 59 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 59 CHAPTER 13: ALCOHOL 64 SECONDARY RESEARCH .......................................................................................................................... 64 PRIMARY RESEARCH: STUDY RESULTS .................................................................................................... 64 CHAPTER 14: DISCUSSION 67 SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE ......................................................................................................................... 67 LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT RESEARCH BASE ............................................................................................ 68 DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH ....................................................................................................... 69 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 69 REFERENCES APPENDIX 1: SEARCH STRATEGIES 71 79
PHASE 1: STRATEGIES TO IDENTIFY SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS AND META-ANALYSES...... 79 PHASE 2: STRATEGIES TO IDENTIFY PRIMARY STUDIES ........................................................................... 80 APPENDIX 2: SOURCES OF INFORMATION APPENDIX 3: EXCLUDED REFERENCES APPENDIX 4: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR PAST HISTORY OF BREAST CANCER APPENDIX 5: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR LESIONS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RISK OF BREAST CANCER APPENDIX 6: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR INCREASED BREAST DENSITY APPENDIX 7: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR NULLIPARITY APPENDIX 8: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR EARLY MENARCHE APPENDIX 9: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR POST MENOPAUSAL OBESITY APPENDIX 10: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR HORMONE REPLACEMENT THERAPY APPENDIX 11: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR HORMONAL CONTRACEPTIVES APPENDIX 12: OTHER EXOGENOUS HORMONES APPENDIX 13: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR DIETARY FACTORS APPENDIX 14: EVIDENCE TABLES FOR ALCOHOL 84 85 91 97 100 118 150 181 205 216 263 292 312 SOURCES SEARCHED ........................................................................................................................ 84 RETRIEVED STUDIES EXCLUDED FOR REVIEW.......................................................................... 85
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Table 6: Table 7: Table 8: Table 9: Table 10: Table 11: Table 12: Table 13: Table 14: Table 15: Table 16: Table 17: Table 18: Table 19: Table 20: Table 21: Table 4.1: Table 5.1: Table 5.2: Table 6.1: Table 7.1: Table 7.2: Table 8.1: Table 8.2: Table 9.1: Table 9.2: Table 10.1 Table 11.1: Table 11.2: Table 12.1: Table 12.2: Table 13.1: Table 13.2: Table 14.1 Table 14.2 Inclusion/exclusion criteria for identification of risk factors for breast cancer ....................... 4 Association between percent area of dense tissue and risk of breast cancer. ........................ 16 Association between area of dense tissue and risk of breast cancer. ..................................... 17 Association between breast density classified using a qualitative method (Wolfe or BIRADS classification) and risk of breast cancer. .................................................................... 17 Association between nulliparous/parous and risk of breast cancer. ...................................... 20 Association between number of parities and risk of breast cancer........................................ 21 Association between number of pregnancies and risk of breast cancer................................. 23 Association between age at menarche and risk of breast cancer: reference using the youngest age at menarche stratum......................................................................................... 25 Association between age at menarche and risk of breast cancer: reference using the oldest age at menarche stratum ........................................................................................................ 27 Association between age at menarche and risk of breast cancer: reference using an intermediate age at menarche stratum ................................................................................... 28 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the association between BMI and the risk of breast cancer in post menopausal women ............................................................ 31 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between ever OC use and risk of breast cancer ..................................................................... 39 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between duration of OC use and risk of breast cancer .......................................................... 41 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between recency of OC use and risk of breast cancer ........................................................... 43 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between timing of OC use in relation to first full term pregnancy and risk of breast cancer 45 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between age of first OC use and risk of breast cancer........................................................... 47 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between time since first OC use and risk of breast cancer .................................................... 47 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between oestrogen dose and risk of breast cancer ................................................................. 48 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between specific types of OC use and risk of breast cancer.................................................. 48 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between injectable progestin contraceptive use and risk of breast cancer............................. 49 Comparison of original studies appraised that evaluated the presence of an association between total fat intake and risk of breast cancer.................................................................. 61 Evidence tables for primary studies of past history of breast cancer.................................... 92 Evidence tables for secondary studies of lesions associated with increased risk of breast cancer .................................................................................................................................... 98 Evidence tables for primary studies of lesions associated with increased risk of breast cancer .................................................................................................................................... 99 Evidence tables for primary studies of increased breast density ......................................... 101 Evidence tables for secondary studies of nulliparity ........................................................... 119 Evidence tables for primary studies of nulliparity .............................................................. 120 Evidence tables for secondary studies of early menarche ................................................... 151 Evidence tables for primary studies of early menarche....................................................... 152 Evidence tables for secondary studies of post menopausal obesity..................................... 182 Evidence tables for primary studies of post menopausal obesity ........................................ 185 Evidence tables for secondary studies of hormone replacement therapy ............................ 206 Evidence tables for secondary studies of hormonal contraceptives..................................... 217 Evidence tables for primary studies of hormonal contraceptives ........................................ 219 Evidence tables for secondary studies of phyoestrogens..................................................... 264 Evidence tables for primary studies of xenoestrogens ........................................................ 268 Evidence tables for secondary studies of dietary factors..................................................... 293 Evidence tables for primary studies of dietary factors ........................................................ 297 Evidence tables for secondary studies of alcohol ............................................................... 313 Evidence tables for primary studies of alcohol ................................................................... 316
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Number of registrations for malignant neoplasms of the breast among women by age group, New Zealand: 2003 (provisional data).................................................................... 2 Age specific rate of registrations for malignant neoplasms of the breast among women by age group, New Zealand: 2003 (provisional data) ........................................................ 2 Forest plot examining the association between ever use of oral contraceptives and risk of breast cancer ................................................................................................................ 40 Forest plot examining the association between use of oral contraceptives before first full term pregnancy and risk of breast cancer .................................................................. 46
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Chapter 1: Background
This systematic review was requested by Dr Madeleine Wall, Clinical Leader BreastCancer Aotearoa, National Screening Unit, Public Health Directorate, Ministry of Health, New Zealand. The Cancer Control Strategy and the New Zealand Health Strategy are the two overarching documents that support the development of New Zealand national guidelines for women at high risk of breast cancer. Any initiatives that support the early identification of women with breast cancer and introduction of strategies to reduce the psychological, emotional and physical effects of cancer are highly valued. The provision of mammography for women at high risk of breast cancer is a high profile media topic and an area of interest for the current Minister of Health. Numerous health reports have been written and the number of ministerial enquiries is increasing as the level of awareness around breast cancer increases. At this time, a policy decision has been announced that allows women at high risk of breast cancer access to screening on a BreastScreen Aotearoa mobile unit in rural areas. The lack of appropriate guidelines for risk identification, surveillance and management of these women has been identified as a problem in attempting to implement the policy. The requirement for national guidelines for women at high risk of breast cancer has been identified as a priority by the BreastScreen Aotearoa Advisory Group and the National Screening Unit (NSU) Consumers Reference Group. The NSU supports the development of guidelines, which it recommends being undertaken by a representative group of interested stakeholders and not exclusively the NSU. In order to underpin any guideline, an evidence-based review of the literature is required to identify the population at risk, methods of identifying individual risk, computer simulated risk models, and surveillance of those high risk groups. In particular, an assessment of the relevance of the international literature and risk estimates to the New Zealand population of women at high risk of breast cancer is required. This would identify gaps in our knowledge or applicability of international risk estimation tools to the NZ population which in turn will inform the development of national guidelines, or further research necessary before guideline development occurs. This report covers the evidence-based review of the literature that examines selected risk factors for breast cancer. A subsequent evidence-based review is planned to examine surveillance of women at high risk of breast cancer. This review will include surveillance with mammography, ultrasound and MRI.
Age group
Figure 1:
Number of registrations for malignant neoplasms of the breast among women by age group, New Zealand: 2003 (provisional data)
Age group
Figure 2:
Age specific rate of registrations for malignant neoplasms of the breast among women by age group, New Zealand: 2003 (provisional data)
REVIEW QUESTION
The overarching review question for this systematic review was: What is the level of increased risk (expressed as a risk ratio, rate ratio or odds ratio) of breast cancer among women with the risk factors identified in the scope of evaluation?
REVIEW SCOPE
This systematic review focuses on the evaluation of level of risk associated with defined risk factors for breast cancer amongst women. Another report will present a review examining surveillance of women at high risk of breast cancer. The Ministry of Health requested that the scope of the present systematic review be limited to the following risk factors: previous breast cancer at-risk lesions such as atypical ductal hyperplasia, lobular carcinoma in situ, lobular hyperplasia and sclerosing adenosis increased breast density childlessness early menarche postmenopausal obesity exogenous hormone use dietary factors alcohol.
It is recognised that some of the above risk factors interact with each other. However, interaction of the above risk factors was outside the scope of the review. The search was limited to full reports published in English and published between 1996 and December 2005. Full details of inclusion and exclusion criteria are provided in the next chapter.
STRUCTURE OF REPORT
This report is divided into sections. The methodology includes search strategy, inclusion and exclusion criteria, and outcomes considered. The results section of the review includes primary and secondary research considered. These results are divided into chapters for different risk factors. They are restricted to text and tables that present highly summarised and aggregated data from the studies selected and appraised. The corresponding evidence tables for the studies that were included in the review are found in the appendices. These appendices constitute the bulk of this report. This approach has been taken in recognising the need for simplicity in locating the key information in an easily used format. Thus, it is emphasised that the more detailed analyses of individual studies can be found in the appendices (again organised by risk factor). If further detail is required about individual studies, the reader is referred to the original studies. The final section summarises results, briefly discusses methodological limitations in the area, presents areas where further research is required and presents key conclusions.
Chapter 2: Methodology
SELECTION CRITERIA
Selection criteria for this systematic review are listed in Table 1. These criteria were pre-set in conjunction with the Ministry of Health. Table 1:
Characteristic Inclusion criteria
Publication type 1. 2. Systematic reviews. Clinical studies with a control group for the time period beyond key systematic reviews
Population
Women who were assessed for breast cancer within the study
Sample size
Assessment of risk factor status, as documented in the scope of the review Risk or rate of breast cancer among women with versus without the risk factors of interest (measure of effect expressed as an odds ratio, risk ratio or rate ratio)
Exclusion criteria
Publication type Non-systematic reviews, uncontrolled studies, letters, editorials, expert opinion articles, conference proceedings, comments and articles published in abstract form Limited to genetic and familial risk factors Publication superseded by a later publication with longer follow up data and overlap in the patient population Non-English language articles Studies published before 1996
SEARCH STRATEGY
A systematic method of literature searching and selection was employed in the preparation of this review as follows: A search for systematic reviews and meta-analyses discussing any of the ten included risk factors for breast cancer was carried out in November 2005. The search was run on the Medline and Embase databases, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, the DARE and HTA databases The results from this process established the date range for the individual risk factor searches that followed i.e. primary studies were sought only for years not already covered by satisfactory systematic reviews. There was enough recent information from systematic reviews to cover one of the risk factors hormone replacement therapy. Additional primary studies were then sought for the remaining nine risk factors. A core search strategy encompassing the breast cancer risk factor concept was developed for each database linked with filters for trials (including randomised trials), and observational studies. The filters were adapted from the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) filters http://www.sign.ac.uk/methodology/filters.html for the Medline, and Embase databases. The
RISK FACTORS FOR BREAST CANCER IN WOMEN