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Summary
EPS of $0.51 were 6 cents ahead of our and the
Street's $0.45 forecast, although excluding a Stock Overview
curtailment gain on a change in the company's Reuters
NYSE EURONEXT, INC. - 7/ 3 0/ 20 0 9 NYX
employee medical plan, EPS was more like $0.48, Bloomberg NYX
still a modest beat. Upside came from better cost 45
ADR
performance vs. our forecast, partially offset by
weaker revenues driven by price cuts. 35
25
Stock Rating Target Price
New: 1-Overweight New: US$ 37.00 15
Volum e
Old: 1-Overweight Old: US$ 37.00
10M
Barclays Capital does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be
aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Software/technologies revenue also fell short of our forecast, but this was primarily a timing issue with a couple of large deals not having
closed by the end of the quarter. We expect 3Q revenue to increase sequentially, as these deals will have closed, even if the broader
market remains soft as the company described the 2Q.
Market share did decline during the quarter in US cash equities, though this did not create a variance vs. our forecast since we had already
updated our estimates with quarter-end data. U.S. options share within the NYSE Arca platform increased, but has since fallen off
meaningfully in July. US cash market share has fallen in July as well. The company did not offer much explanation for the July declines
other than to stress the competitiveness of the market. Flash orders garnered some attention on the call, and NYSE attributes some of its
market share losses in US cash equities to this in addition to internalization. Broadly speaking, we believe the company is watching market
share closely, as recent pricing initiatives in US cash and options do not appear to be helping market share, at least not this month. With the
VIX settling into lower levels, and market volumes slowing into the depths of the summer, the company may be getting a glimpse of more
steady-state volume and order flow dynamics that could once again prompt another round of tweaking of its pricing model. We will look to
monitor August trends for additional clues as to how NYX could respond.
OTHER NOTABLES
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Equity Research
VALUATION REMAINS COMPELLING LONG TERM, IN OUR VIEW
NYX made further strides from a cost performance perspective, a key area of focus for investors since the Euronext acquisition closed in
2007. That said, continued market share erosion and price compression in key transaction businesses likely offsets much of the enthusiasm
in a period where investors are intently focused on organic growth, likely explaining the in line performance vs. the market so far today. NYX
has a lot of balls in the air that we expect to generate new top and bottom line growth over the next couple of years. As such, we believe
considerable long term value exists, particularly with the shares trading at 11x our 2010 estimate. We believe that stabilization of market
share and pricing in US and European cash markets, despite having less impact than many realize, is likely a prerequisite for multiple
expansion, because earnings power will likely continue to be second-guessed absent that.
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Equity Research
Figure 1: NYSE Euronext – 2Q09 Earnings Review
Last Year (Year over Year) Last Quarter (Sequential)
Reported BarCap Estimate Reported Reported
NYX 2Q09 2Q09E Difference % 2Q08 Difference % 1Q09 Difference %
Net Revenues $611 $627 ($16) (2.6%) $792 ($181) (22.9%) $604 $7 1.2%
Cash Trading $615 $640 ($25) (3.9%) $511 $104 20.4% $620 ($5) (0.8%)
Derivatives Trading (Gross) $207 $214 ($7) (3.4%) $230 ($23) -- $187 $20 10.7%
- Rebates/Routing/Clearing $514 $536 ($22) (4.1%) $320 $194 60.6% $508 $6 1.2%
Trading (Net) $308 $318 ($10) (3.2%) $421 ($113) (26.8%) $299 $9 3.0%
Listing $101 $100 $1 1.0% $98 $3 3.1% $99 $2 2.0%
Market Data $101 $102 ($1) (1.0%) $105 ($4) (3.8%) $102 ($1) (1.0%)
Software/Technologies $44 $52 ($8) (14.7%) $119 ($75) (63.0%) $44 $0 0.0%
Other $57 $55 $2 2.8% $49 $8 16.3% $60 ($3) (5.0%)
Total Indirect Costs $398 $437 ($39) (8.9%) $497 ($99) (19.9%) $422 ($24) (5.7%)
Non-Operating Expenses $22 $22 $0 1.8% $15 $7 46.7% $21 $1 4.8%
EBITDA $279 $259 $20 7.7% $365 ($86) (23.6%) $250 $29 11.6%
Operating Income $213 $190 $23 12.0% $295 ($82) (27.8%) $182 $31 17.0%
Net Income (ex-Items) $132 $118 $14 12.2% $200 ($68) (34.0%) $112 $20 17.9%
EPS from Cont Ops $0.51 $0.45 $0.06 12.3% $0.75 ($0.24) (32.5%) $0.43 $0.08 17.9%
Margins
EBITDA Margin 45.7% 41.3% 4.3% 45.5% 0.2% 41.4% 4.3%
Operating Margin 34.9% 30.3% 4.5% 37.2% (2.4%) 30.1% 4.7%
Tax Rate 28.7% 29.0% (0.3%) 28.1% 0.6% 23.2% 5.5%
Net Income Margin 21.6% 18.8% 2.8% 25.3% (3.6%) 18.5% 3.1%
Revenue Mix
US Cash, net $65 $64 $1 1.5% $87 ($22) (25.2%) $54 $11 20.5%
US Derivatives, net $32 $37 ($5) (12.6%) $19 $13 68.0% $32 ($0) (0.2%)
US Market Data $57 $55 $2 4.1% $50 $7 14.0% $57 $0 0.0%
Europe Cash $85 $96 ($11) (11.2%) $155 ($70) (45.2%) $100 ($15) (15.0%)
Europe Derivatives $124 $122 $2 1.9% $160 ($36) (22.5%) $113 $11 9.7%
Europe Market Data $47 $47 ($0) (0.5%) $55 ($8) (14.5%) $45 $2 4.4%
Listing $101 $100 $1 1.0% $98 $3 3.1% $99 $2 2.0%
Software and Technologies $44 $52 ($8) (14.7%) $119 ($75) (63.0%) $44 $0 0.0%
Other $57 $55 $2 2.8% $49 $8 16.3% $60 ($3) (5.0%)
Metrics
US Market Volumes:
NYX's Matched Volume 204,936 204,936 0 0.0% 164,829 40,107 24.3% 219,242 (14,306) (6.5%)
NYX's Options Vol (mm) 896 896 0 0.0% 787 109 13.9% 801 96 12.0%
US Pricing
Net Fee/100 Matched Sh. $0.0318 $0.0313 $0.0005 1.5% $0.0528 ($0.021) (39.8%) $0.0246 $0.007 28.9%
Net Fee/Options Contract $0.196 $0.224 ($0.028) (12.6%) $0.196 ($0.001) (0.4%) $0.230 ($0.034) (15.0%)
European Volumes:
Cash Trades (000s) 90,183 90,183 0 0.0% 87,772 2,411 2.7% 86,629 3,554 4.1%
Liffe Contracts 302,754 302,754 0 0.0% 283,516 19,238 6.8% 238,089 64,665 27.2%
Euronext Pricing
Cash Fee/Trade $0.943 $1.062 ($0.119) (11.2%) $1.766 ($0.823) (46.6%) $1.154 ($0.212) (18.3%)
Derivatives Fee/Contract $0.532 $0.541 ($0.009) (1.6%) $0.702 ($0.170) (24.2%) $0.601 ($0.069) (11.5%)
Derivatives Rebate/Contract $0.122 $0.139 ($0.016) (11.8%) $0.138 ($0.015) (11.2%) $0.126 ($0.004) (3.0%)
Net Fee/Contract $0.410 $0.402 $0.008 1.9% $0.564 ($0.155) (27.4%) $0.475 ($0.065) (13.7%)
Source: Company reports, Barclays Capital estimates.
Note: In $ million unless otherwise noted.
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Equity Research
Analyst Certification:
We, Roger A. Freeman, CFA and Alex Kramm, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation
was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Company Description:
NYSE Euronext is the operator of several cash and derivatives exchanges in both the United States and Europe.
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Equity Research
On September 20, 2008, Barclays Capital acquired Lehman Brothers' North American investment banking, capital markets, and private investment
management businesses. All ratings and price targets prior to the acquisition date relate to coverage under Lehman Brothers Inc.
Important Disclosures:
NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX) US$ 27.39 (30-Jul-2009) 1-Overweight / 2-Neutral
Rating and Price Target Chart:
NYSE EURONEXT
As of 07-Jul-2009
Currency = USD
120.00
112.00
104.00
96.00
88.00
80.00
72.00
64.00
56.00
48.00
40.00
32.00
24.00
16.00
7-06 10-06 1-07 4-07 7-07 10-07 1-08 4-08 7-08 10-08 1-09 4-09 7-09
Closing Price Price Target
Recommendation Change Drop Coverage
Source: FactSet
Currency=US$
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
26-Jun-09 28.00 37.00 04-Aug-08 40.31 80.00
01-May-09 23.30 28.00 04-Apr-08 67.89 91.00
21-Apr-09 21.12 27.00 05-Feb-08 71.03 99.00
10-Feb-09 20.92 30.00 09-Jan-08 79.80 103.00
30-Jan-09 22.00 37.00 11-Jul-07 82.11 1 -Overweight
03-Nov-08 28.43 63.00 23-Mar-07 87.67 97.00
10-Oct-08 25.86 68.00 28-Jul-06 63.92 68.00
26-Sep-08 39.26 72.00
FOR EXPLANATIONS OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART.
Barclays Capital and/or Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or one of their affiliates has managed or co-managed within the past 12 months a 144A
and/or public offering of securities for NYSE Euronext, Inc..
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NYSE Euronext, Inc. in the past 12 months.
Barclays Capital and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from NYSE
Euronext, Inc. within the next 3 months.
Barclays Capital and/or an affiliate trade regularly in the shares of NYSE Euronext, Inc..
Barclays Capital and/or Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or one of their affiliates has received non-investment banking related compensation from
NYSE Euronext, Inc. within the last 12 months.
NYSE Euronext, Inc. is or during the past 12 months has been an investment banking client of Barclays Capital and/or Lehman Brothers
Inc. and/or one of their affiliates.
NYSE Euronext, Inc. is or during the last 12 months has been a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays
Capital and/or Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or one of their affiliates.
Barclays Capital is associated with specialist firm Barclays Capital Market Makers who makes a market in NYSE Euronext, Inc. stock. At
any given time, the associated specialist may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and the associated specialist may be on
6
Equity Research
the opposite side of orders executed on the Floor of the Exchange in the stock. Barclays Capital and/or an affiliate makes a market in the
securities of this company.
Valuation Methodology: Our $37 price target assumes a 15x multiple on our fy10 EPS estimate of $2.45.
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: Key risks to our investment thesis include earnings sensitivity to market
volume and share fluctuations, pricing, the Archipelago integration, competition, regulatory changes including Reg NMS, challenges in
trading new asset classes, customer concentration and a limited float.
7
Equity Research
Important Disclosures Continued:
The analysts responsible for preparing this report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
In addition to the stock rating, we provide sector views which rate the outlook for the sector coverage universe as 1-Positive, 2-Neutral or
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Investors should carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.
Stock Rating
1-Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a 12-month
investment horizon.
2-Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the sector coverage universe over a
12- month investment horizon.
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in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Sector View
1-Positive - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.
2-Neutral - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.
3-Negative - sector coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.
Distribution of Ratings:
Barclays Capital Equity Research has 1206 companies under coverage.
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of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
48% have been assigned a 2-Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating;
37% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
8
Equity Research
14% have been assigned a 3-Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 29%
of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.
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