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FUNCTION DEVELOPMENT FOR LOAD FORECASTING USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS

Man Mohan, D. K. Chaturve ! " Electrical Engineering Department Faculty of Engineering Dayalbagh Educational Institute Dayalbagh !gra 282 00" Fa#$ 0"62 281226 E%mail$ dei&nde'(snl'net'in )D'K'*hatur(edi+ P. K. Ka#ra Electrical Engineering Department Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur 208016

A$STRACT
,enetic !lgorithms ),!s+ are gaining popularity in many Engineering and scientific applications due to their enormous !d(antages such as adaptability ability to handle non%linear ill defined and probabilistic problems' In this paper an attempt has been made to de(elop a Function for long%term load Forecasting using ,enetic !lgorithms' It does not re-uire any pre(ious assumption of a function for load forcasting further also it does not need any functional relationship bet.een dependent and independent (ariables' The results obtained by this method are compared .ith the *entral Electricity !uthority )*E!+ forecasted data to demonstrate the effecti(eness of the proposed method'

KE% &ORDS' /oad forecasting ,enetic !lgorithms E(olutionary 0rograms' INTRODUCTION


During the last fe. years there has been a gro.ing interest in algorithms .hich rely on analogies to natural processes' The emergence of massi(ely parallel computers made these algorithms of practical interest' There are (arious .ell 1no.n programs in this class li1e e(olutionary programs genetic algorithms simulated annealing classifier systems e#pert systems artificial neural net.or1s and fu22y systems' This paper discusses a genetic algorithm % .hich is based on the principle of e(olution )sur(i(al of fittest+' In such algorithms a population of indi(iduals )potential solution+ undergoes a se-uence of transformations li1e mutation type and crosso(er type' These indi(iduals stri(e for sur(i(al3 a selection scheme biased to.ards fitter indi(iduals selects the ne#t generation' !fter some number of generations the program con(erges to the optimal (alue' ,enetic algorithm has been applied to (arious problems in electrical po.er systems such as generation scheduling 456 5" 567 Economic load dispatch 4587 reacti(e po.er optimi2ation 4517 distribution net.or1 planning 4527 alarm 0rocessing 4587' Electrical long term load%forecasting 4557'

,enetic algorithm is best suited for the problems li1e load forecasting' /oad forecasting plays an important role in po.er system planning designing operation and control' The load at the (arious load buses is re-uired to 1no. a fe. seconds to se(eral minutes before to plan the generation and distribution schedules contingency analysis and for chec1ing the system security )1no.n as (ery short time load forecasting+' For the allocation of the spinning reser(e it .ould be necessary to predict the load demands at least half an hour to a fe. hours ahead )1no.n as short term load forecasts+' 9n the other hand preparing to meet the load re-uirements at the height of the .inter or summer season may re-uire a load forecast to made a fe. days to fe. .ee1s in ad(ance' Forecasts .ith such lead time constitute medium term load forecasts' Finally to plan the gro.th of the generation capacity it .ould be necessary to ma1e :long term: load prediction .hich may in(ol(e a lead time of a fe. months to a fe. years' /ong term load forecasting of a future demands on a realistic basis is important in po.er planning' ;a<or po.er pro<ects ha(e long gestation periods .hich may e#tend to 10 years or more' Therefore decisions on in(estment ha(e to be ta1en in ad(ance for demands if the energy benefits are to materiali2e at appropriate time needed' Thus it is necessary not only to ha(e demand forecast co(ering a 1" % 20 years period but only to update the same e(ery 5%" years in order to fit into the fi(e years plan'

Traditional approaches 467 such as sectional methods or load sur(ey methods mathematical methods li1e correlation or e#trapolation methods )linear gro.th pattern e#ponential gro.th pattern parabolic gro.th pattern or sigmoidal gro.th pattern+ or combination of both and mathematical methods considering economic parameters' In these methods regression and time series analysis may not gi(e sufficiently accurate results' *on(ersely comple# mathematical models for load forecasting are cumbersome and time consuming as they re-uire a lot of information about (ariables on .hich load forecasting depends' Therefore sometimes either these model con(erge slo.ly or may di(erge in certain cases' The information regarding (ariables may be incorrect improper and insufficient causing error in forecasting3 more the number of such (ariables higher may be the error in forecasting' Therefore a method is re-uired .hich can forecast the po.er demand .ith minimum number of (ariables gi(ing sufficient accuracy' !t the same time the method is not -uite comple# and cumbersome' !ll these properties are possessed by ,!s' =ere an attempt has been made to de(elop a function for long%term load forecasting from the a(ailable data of pea1 demand using ,!s'

GENETIC ALGORITHMS
,enetic !lgorithms ),!s+ are inspired from phenomena found in li(ing nature' The phenomena incorporated so far in ,! models include phenomena of natural selection as there are selection and the production of (ariation by means of recombination and mutation and rarely in(ersion diploid and others' ;ost ,enetic !lgorithms .or1 .ith one large panmictic population i'e' in the recombination step each indi(idual may potentially choose any other indi(idual from

LOAD FORECASTING ( STATE OF ART


;any techni-ues and approaches ha(e been in(estigated to tac1le electric po.er demand forecasting problems in the last fe. decades 487' These are often different in nature and apply different engineering considerations and economic analyses'

the population as a mate' Then ,! operators are performed to obtain the ne. child offspring3 the operators are$ i' *rosso(er ii' ;utation iii' >election and sur(i(al of fittest 411%22 267' CROSSOVER AND MUTATION The tas1 of crosso(er is the creation of a ne. indi(idual out of t.o indi(iduals of the current population' The ne.ly created indi(iduals ha(e no ne. inheritance information and the number of alleles is constantly decreasing' This process results in the contraction of the population to one point .hich is only .ished at the end of the con(ergence process after the population .or1s in a (ery promising part of the search space' Di(ersity is necessary to search a big part of the search space' It is one goal of the learning algorithm to search al.ays in regions not (ie.ed before' Therefore it is necessary to enlarge the information contained in the population' 9ne .ay to achie(e this goal is ;utation' The mutation operator ;)chromosome+ selects a gene of that chromosome and changes the allele by an amount called the mutation (ariance )m(+ this happens .ith a mutation fre-uency )mf+' The parameter mutation (ariance and mutation fre-uency ha(e a ma<or influence on the -uality of learning algorithms' SELECTION FITTEST AND SURVIVAL OF

search space decreases 4107' In our implementation of ,enetic algorithm .e select the best indi(iduals using roulette .heel .ith slot si2ed according to fitness so that the probability of selection of best strings are more' Further more .e only accept an offspring as a ne. member of the population if it differ enough from the other indi(iduals that means here its fitness differ from all other indi(iduals at least by some significant amount' !fter accepting a ne. indi(idual .e remo(e one of the .orst indi(idual )i'e' its fitness (alue is -uite lo.+ from the population in order to hold the population si2e constant' To ma#imi2e the efficiency of ,!s three inherent parameters of ,!s are to be optimi2ed the mutation probability P) the crosso(er probability P* and the population si2e POPSI+E' For ,! parameter optimi2ation se(eral results ha(e been obtained o(er the last fe. years' De@ong and >chuster proposed heuristics for an optimal setting of the mutation probability P) 426% 2"7 Fogarty and Aoo1er in(estigated time dependencies of the mutation and the crosso(er probability respecti(ely 426%287 ,reffenstette >chaffer and @ong found optimal settings for all three parameters of the ,! by e#periment 428%2B 507' The brief description of these parameters are gi(en belo. C POPSI+E !s discussed by De @ong and >pears 4507 that the choice of population si2e has a strong interacting effect on the results' >maller population si2e tends to become homogeneous more -uic1ly' Dith large population si2e the crosso(er producti(ity effect is much less dramatic' Esually the population si2e for ,! (arying from 10 % 100 and it is noted that this parameter is mostly problem dependent' If the problem in hand is simpler then smaller

!s in natural surroundings it holds on a(erage$ ?the better the parents the better the offsprings? and ?the offspring is similar to the parents?' Therefore it is on the one hand desirable to choose the fittest indi(iduals more often but on the other hand not too often because other.ise the di(ersity of the

population si2e can also ser(e the purpose but if the problem is comple# large population si2e is re-uired and it is also necessary to run for large number of generations' CROSSOVER PRO$A$ILIT% For better results it is ad(isable to select the crosso(er rate -uite large than mutation rate' This is the usual practice to ta1e crosso(er rate 20 times greater than the mutation rate 4167' *rosso(er rate generally ranging from 0'2" to 0'B"' MUTATION PRO$A$ILIT% >chaffer 487 found e#perimentally that mutation probability )0m+ is appro#imately in(ersely proportional to the population si2e' ;utation rate generally (arying from 0'001 to 0'05' MA,IMUM GENERATIONS NUM$ER OF

;a#parm C Epper bound of parameter ;inparm C /o.er bound of parameter

FUNCTION USING GA

DEVELOPMENT

! function or e#pression is composed of three parts )genes+$ Hariables )#1 #2 #5IIII+ *onstants )11 12 15IIII+ and 9perators )o1 o2 o5IIII+' The operators connect the (ariables and constants constituting a function' Therefore a function or e#pression is a string of (ariables constants and operators arranged in a proper .ay as gi(en belo.$ F )#1 #2III+F #1 o1 11 o2 #2 o5 12 o6 #5 o" 15 IIIII In the abo(e string the constants )11 12 15IIIII+ may be real or integers3 the operaters )o1 o2 o5IIII+ are mathematical operaters li1e :J: :%: :K: :e#p: :log: :G: etc' The step .ise procedure of Function de(elopment for load forecasting problem through ,! is gi(en belo.% STEP 2 3$ The input parameters to the ,! program are gi(en as follo.s$ *hromosome length lchrome F 22 0opulation si2e F 60 ;a#imum number of generation ma#gen F 20 *rosso(er probability 0c F 0'" ;utation probability 0m F 0'002 STEP 2 4 ,enerate randomly the initial population of si2e e-ual to population si2e as gi(en in step%1'

The selection of ma#imum number of generations is a problem dependent parameter' For comple# problems the ma#imum number of generations is large enough so that the results should con(erge to optimal (alue 4287' Len-th o. Chro)o/o)e 0L*hro)e1 The (alue of lchrome is dependent to the precision re-uired and can be calculated .ith the help of the follo.ing e#pression 412 157 C lchrome 2 F);a#parm % ;inparm+ G 10 r

Dhere r is number of places after decimal up to .hich the precision is re-uired'

STEP 25 Decode the constants as .ell as the operators and de(elop the function corresponding to each string of population' The (ariables considered in the function de(elopment for load forecasting using ,! are time )in years+ .hich is independent (ariables and demand of pre(ious year as dependent (ariable' ! de(eloped function from the corresponding string of population is sho.n belo. for e#ample$ 0opulation >tring 00 11 01 00 10 10 11 operators 01 11 01 103 *onstants

02 F )#G5+G)#J2+ G )#J5+%)#%6+ crosso(er site !fter crosso(er $ 01F )#J1+G)#K6+ G )#J5+%)#%6+ 02F )#G5+G)#J2+ J )#%1+%)#G5+ ;utation in a string 01 is sho.n belo.$ 01F )#J1+G)#K6+ G)# J 5+%)#%6+ mutation site !fter mutation $ 01F )#J1+G)#K6+ G)#%5+%)#%6+

De(eloped Function F)n+ F )#J1+G)#K6+J)#%1+%)# G 5+ STEP26 *orresponding to all de(eloped functions predict the demand as .ell as error in prediction and select the functions sho.ing lo.er errors in forecast on the basis of sur(i(al of the fittest modifing the initial population' Lo. ne. )child+ population of better strings is ready for crosso(er and mutation' STEP27 0erform crosso(er and mutation operations among strings of population according to their probability to obtain ne. population of better strings' T.o parent strings for crosso(er are gi(en belo.$ 01 F )#J1+G)#K6+ J )#%1+%)#G5+

STEP28 Mepeat step%5 to " till you do not find function of best fitness (alue' The program for function de(elopment of load forecasting problem has been .ritten in ;!T/!A "'1'

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION


,enetic algorithms claim to pro(ide near optimal or optimal solution for computationally intensi(e problems' Therefore the effecti(eness of genetic algorithm solutions should al.ays be e(aluated by e#perimental results' For load forecasting problem the results obtained by the de(eloped function through genetic algorithm )FDGA+ are compared .ith the results gi(en by !nnual 0o.er >ur(ey )APS+ carried out by *E! as mentioned in Table %1' The cur(e is also dra.n bet.een the abo(e mentioned data as sho.n in Figure 1'

S.No. 1 2 5 6 " 6 8 8 B 10 11 12 15 16 1" 16

Ta9#e 2 3 Co):arat!ve re/u#t/ o. Loa .ore*a/t!n- $; APS an GA %ear APS 0M&1 FDGA0M&1 Error 0<1 0.9802 1B8"%86 2"28 2"08 0.7911 1B86%88 288" 2BB8 -3.9168 1B88%88 6561 6011 7.6019 1B88%8B 688B 6885 -0.0837 1B8B%B0 "2"1 "508 -1.0665 1BB0%B1 "821 "88" -1.1187 1BB1%B2 6522 6516 0.1265 1BB2%B5 6BB2 6B65 0.7008 1BB5%B6 8858 86"1 1.1243 1BB6%B" 8"80 8686 1.1599 1BB"%B6 B5B8 B288 0.8996 1BB6%B8 10558 1026" 1.7149 1BB8%B8 11581 11186 1.5751 1BB8%BB 12"08 12510 1.4609 1BBB%2000 158"B 15""8 1.3347 2000%01 1"156 16B52

CONCLUSION
Forecasted demand

Fig.1 Forecasted Peak Demand


20000 15000 10000 5000 0
85 19 -86 88 19 -89 91 1 9 -9 2 94 19 -9 5 97 20 - 9 8 00 -0 1

APS FDGA

Year

Fig. 2 Percentage Error in Forecasting


10 Error (%) 5 0 11 -5 15 13 1 3 5 7 9

The ,enetic !lgorithm .hich is inspired from the biological genetics is simple po.erful domain free and probabilistic approach to general problem sol(ing techni-ue' It is best suited for the problems li1e load forecasting for electrical po.er demand that is a type of non%linear (ariations' The /oad cur(e obtained from de(eloped function through FD,! is much closer to the demand cur(e obtained by !0> data' Therefore It is capable to produce a function for non%linear (ariations from the a(ailable data .hich can sa(e a lot of lobour and comple#ity during analysis of any type of non%linear (ariations' The idea of producing a function for non%linear (ariations has a (ast application area in the field of science and engineering' This techni-ue may also be used for meteorological forecasting .here historical data is a(ailable'

19

ACKNO&LEDGEMENTS
The authors are e#tremely than1ful to 0rof' 0'>' >atsangi Director Dayalbagh Educational Institute Dayalbagh !gra for continuous help and encouragement' The authors .ish to e#press their heartiest gratitude to !I*TE Le. Delhi for pro(iding the financial support for carrying out this .or1'

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