System Modelling

System Characterization

SYSTEM CHARACTERIZATION
To get the right description about the system
Not all features in the real world relevant with the problem defined Could be a partial description about a system

A process of simplification

BASIC CONCEPTS
Sistem, Variabel and Parameter System & Environment Interaction/interdependency Open vs Closed Static vs Dynamic White box vs black box Time scale Discrete vs Continuous Deterministic vs Stochastic

BASIC CONCEPTS
Understand the system (entities, interdependencies, purpose) Most systems have interactions with environment The number of entities complexity Static approach to the dynamic system how to choose the time scale /period

If continuous approach is too detail use discrete approach

Data variability stochastic behavior

Example: SYSTEM,VARIABLE, PARAMETER

System : collection of interdependent objects in a way to achieve something.

Every object/entity has certain attributes

Parameter : intrinsic attribute Variable : interaction among entities

Thermal power station

3 main objects: boiler, turbine, generator

Variables and parameters are derived from heat transfer equations, fluid mechanics, electricity, etc
Variables: #customer in queue, # product sold Parameter : product price, # counter Variable : components state: good/failed, components life time

Supermarket

3 main objects : customer, counter, product Single objek

Components reliability

Example SC1: Optimal Production

Time scale important variable (weekly) static System environment : milk supply product demand open system Assumption: #product sold = #product demanded demand uncertainty is not significant: deterministic No carry over from week to week static

Variables:
X : milk supply (lt)

Parameter:
T1: conversion factor from milk into butter c1: butter production cost (Rp/kg) s1: price of butter (Rp/kg)

Y1 : milk used for producing butter (lt) Z2 : amount of butter produced (kg) S3 : amount of butter sold (kg) D4: demand for butter (kg)

Y1

Z1

S1

D1

T1

C1

Y2

X
Y3

Y4

X : milk supply (lt) Y1 : milk used for producing butter (lt) T1: conversion factor from milk into butter c1: butter production cost (Rp/kg) s1: price of butter (Rp/kg)

Z2 : amount of butter produced (kg)

S3 : amount of butter sold (kg) D4: demand for butter (kg)

Y1

Z1

S1

D1

T1

C1

s1

Product price is not affected by the level of production

Y1

Z1

S1

D1

T1

C1

s1

Product price is affected by the level of production ST1(i+2)

Carry-over every week

ST1(i)

ST1(i+1)

Z1(i)

D1(i)

Example SC2: Weather Changes

Pools owner use fuel to heat up the swimming pool so that the temperature is stable at 27 C. As the fuel price increases, solar heating system becomes an alternative. Requirement for solar heating system: 8 hours of sunshine Unfortunately, the weather is unpredictable must combine fuel & solar heat Problem: Economic viability of solar heating system To answer: weather survey during 63 days

survey: weather changes

Days

Week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

S S S P C S S P P

S P S C P S S S C

S C S S P C P S S

P P C S C S S S S

C S P S C S C P C

S P S P P S C S P

S S C C S P S S S

S : Sunny, P : Partially sunny, C : Cloudy

 Time scale : daily (hours sunshine midnight to midnight) discrete Not all factors can be understood: Black box Dynamic : state variable changes daily Stochastic : state variable is uncertain & unpredictable

N(t) = 1 if day (t) sunny = 2 if day (t) partially sunny

= 3 if day (t) cloudy

N(t) depends on N(t-j), where (1< j < J) J = parameter reflecting degree of dependence on the past, simply assume J=1

Example SC3: World population

Population changes with time Changed by +birth, -death Limited population
N(t) d b N(t)
d1 b d2 d3

b(x)

d(x)

N1(t)

N2(t)

N3(t)

x
Group 1 : young and juvenile Group 2 : mature and child bearing Group 3 : old

xm
N1(t) N2(t) N3(t)

 Dynamic : state variables change over time Continuous : population changes with time; OR: Discrete : population numbers at discrete time instants Deterministic : birth, death are predictable population numbers are large and the interval of study is small; OR: Stochastic : population numbers is small small range of changes can be clearly seen Closed : birth rate, death rate, L are constants (no external factors effects); OR: Open : medical advances, disaster, technology