Global Research

Strategist Contact Information

Russell Browne - russell.browne@scotiabank.com Trading Contacts Reuters MMCN or (212)225-6200 Stephen Abbriano - stephen.abbriano@scotiabank.com Robert Lockwood - robert.lockwood@scotiabank.com Friday, January 03, 2014 1-Day Commodity Moves (%)
1.1 0.7
0.6

Gold & Silver Marketwatch

Daily Update
Market Commentary Market Commentary Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1229.00/1230.00. It Overnight strength in the dollar pushed gold lower, opening at dipped shortly after open to a low of 1226.50/1227.50 and then 1396.25/1397.25. Profit taking over worries about Japan quickly took quickly surged to a two-week high of 1240.00/1241.00 while the metal to an intraday low of 1381.10/1382.10. As the selling frenzy global equities fellbuying and the Dollar remained thin subsided, renewed interest brought goldsteady. back upAs to well, an intraday volumes were expected following a snowstorm that hit the U.S. high of 1403.25/1404.25 mid session. Unable to find support at this Northeast as the metal traded within range for the rest of the level, the metal eased back quietly to close the day at 1392.50/1393.50. afternoon before closing under at 1238.50/1239.50. Commodities overall being down on Japanese worries, silver opened Silver dipped marginally lower overnight to open at 20.08/20.13. the day significantly lower at 33.77/33.81, quickly reaching an intraday It dropped to a session low interest of 20.00/20.05 lifting to a high to of low of 33.57/33.61. Buying as crude before and base metals began 20.22/20.27 on the back ofsilver gold and finally concluding the reverse their slide lower took to anthen intraday high of 34.80/34.84 day session. at 20.20/20.25 on low volumes. mid As with gold, another round of profit taking took the metal to its close of 34.12/34.16. Technical Commentary Commentary Gold closinginduced the week atin 1238. The has weekly price action is quite A risk is aversion rally the USD put significant downward encouraging from a price Last weeks candle was a pressure on gold. The metalperspective. dropped rapidly through several layers of support, with support only being found at thepregnant 100-day moving average Inside week or Harami which means in Japanese. of 1379. After today's test, a this level has strengthened and the goldclose will now This week Gold touched fresh cycle low to 1182 but require a significant catalyst to break below Shouldweek downward above last weeks high of 1219 shows as here. an outside reversal. pressure emerge again tomorrow, the risk is that gold will test down to This is bullish. Focus now is on December high of 1267. Big picture, the important $1,350. thepsychologically inability to break the 2013 low at 1180 is encouraging.
-5.5 -2.9

Gold

Silver
Platinum

-0.3
-1.4

Palladium
Oil WTI fut

-0.9 -0.5 0.0 -0.3

Copper fut EUR

S&P 500

CRB
0 1 2

-2

-1

5-Day Commodity Moves (%)

2.8
3.8 5.9 4.7

Gold Silver

Platinum Palladium
Oil WTI fut Copper fut

-1.0 -0.6 -2.2

EUR S&P 500 CRB

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

Silver had a the technically bearish day, however the chart continues Silver also is closing week unchanged near 20.20. The fresh cycle to beto more encouraging than gold's. for the Silver metal remains lies at late low 18.85 can bounce higher is Support encouraging. February congestion of low $32.15, followed by the 50-day moving below the December of 20.47. A close above this levelaverage would of $30.96. The MACD has turned bearish, but most other technical open a move to 21.23 the 38.2% of our 4 month down move off studies 25.09. are still clinging to bullish signals. Tomorrow's trading pattern will be key. Confirmation of today's down move would open up the potential of moreratio selling. The gold-silver is higher this week at 61.45 compared to last
Fridays 60.23 close. The ratio has been as high as 62.87 this week.

1 Month Commodity Moves (%)

Gold Silver
1.5 5.2

Platinum Palladium
Oil WTI fut Copper fut
-2.1 2.3

5.1

4.7

EUR S&P 500

CRB -4.0 -2.0 0.0

0.1 0.6 0.1

2.0

4.0

6.0

1/3/14 14:33 (last updated)

Source: Bloomberg

Notable Ranges & Technical Levels Gold Open High Low Close / Last Mid* London Fix AM London Fix PM Handy Harman (Base) Gold / Silver Ratio Open Interest COMEX CBOT Total 1229.00/1230.00 1240.00/1241.00 1226.50/1227.50 1238.50/1239.50 1,232.25 1,234.50 1,234.50 61.17 Gold OI 384,219 146 384,365 Silver 20.08/20.13 20.22/20.27 20.00/20.05 20.20/20.25 20.18 NA 20.215 NA Platinum 1,402.50 1,419.88 1,401.25 1,411.25 1,387.00 1,388.00 1,388.00 NA Silver OI 131,728 52 131,780 Palladium 730.15 733.55 725.75 727.95 723.00 723.00 723.00 NA

Technical Levels etc. Technical Levels,

Gold Pivot Primary Support (Buy) Primary Resistance (Sell) HBOP LBOP Bollinger Band Upper Bollinger Band Mid Bollinger Band Lower Relative Strength 9 Day Relative Strength 14 Day 1,233.93 1,226.55 1,245.75 1,264.95 1,207.35 1,260.35 1,220.18 1,180.00 61 54 Silver 20.192 19.938 20.408 20.878 19.468 20.364 19.719 19.073 59 54 Platinum 1,398 1,377 1,432 1,488 1,322 1,403 1,359 1,314 69 62 Palladium 725.17 716.78 736.13 755.48 697.43 742.47 712.76 683.05 68 60

Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spots last mid price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot. All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may differ.

Gold and Silver Market Watch

Friday, January 03, 2014

Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) 2000

Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 1500 1450 1400

1800

1600

1350 1400 1300 1200

1250 1000 1200 1150 11-Nov

800 Jan-12

May-12
Spot

Sep-12
100-Day

Jan-13

May-13
200-Day

Sep-13
400-Day

21-Nov

1-Dec

11-Dec

21-Dec

31-Dec

Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages ($/oz) 50 48 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Jan-12

Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks ($/oz) 25 24 23 22 21

20 19
18 11-Nov

May-12
Spot

Sep-12
100-Day

Jan-13

May-13
200-Day

Sep-13
400-Day

21-Nov

1-Dec

11-Dec

21-Dec

31-Dec

Source: Bloomberg (may differ from market spot prices)

Moving Averages 5 Day MA 10 Day MA 20 Day MA 30 Day MA 60 Day MA 100 Day MA 200 Day MA 400 Day MA Gold 1,213.13 1,209.69 1,219.94 1,225.66 1,264.08 1,298.72 1,337.32 1,501.60 Silver 19.714 19.679 19.744 19.707 20.609 21.439 21.789 26.289 Platinum 1,381 1,364 1,361 1,362 1,398 1,422 1,438 Palladium 720.07 709.99 712.53 715.71 726.75 723.16 720.84 -

FX Majors CAD EUR GBP CHF AUD ZAR JPY as of: 1.0613 1.3606 1.6428 0.9040 0.8977 10.6404 104.5000 1/3/2014 14:33

Markets CRB DJAIG Crude (fut) S&P 500 US 10 Yr US 30 Yr CDN 10 Yr as of: 276.62 124.91 94.06 1831.64 2.98 3.91 2.75 1/3/2014 14:33

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