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$roughts
Risk mapping
(onitoring and %orecasting (E$A ! Floods, $roughts, Forest Fires, )eatwaves Future land use changes
patial planning
,limate change
soil data, land use, topography and channel dimensions meteorological variables as rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and temperature
MODEL OUTPUT
the main output is river discharge any calculated variable can be reported as either maps, time series of maps or time series at selected point locations
R7;#
"400
($)7% B$)7%
LISFLOOD
"200
"000
400
200
&7'# )&#"
'$%$8#'#%& M$%$8#'#%&
F! #9$)&7%8 (EFAS)
1+++
,++
+ ./-0/+- +1++
./-5/+- +1++
./0+/+- +1++
./01/+- +1++
L$(#/U)&7 N:L:
V6&$;$/P $8u#
Special features. Early flood alert to /at0 1ydrological Services 24!3 hours4
. 'atchment based . 5robabilistic approach . ,nput to the (,' 2(onitoring and ,nformation 'entre of +6E/74 during crises
.otential &ackup %or national systems $anu&e6EFA is part o% the $anu&e Flood Action .lan o% ",.$R El&e6EFA contri&utes to "# E Flood Action .lan aims %or improving %orecasting
EFAS: structure
EU-FLOOD-GIS
! 2
"
,sar Raba
very high possibility of flooding, potentially severe seriously increased river discharges 9ith high possibility of flooding 2li:ely e;ceeding ban:ful conditions4 significantly increased river discharges, no flooding e;pected river discharges increased, no flooding e;pected
River discharge
date
EFAS forecast Alps Flood 21 ! 2 " : pro$a$ilistic: the pro$a$ility for a flood situation to occur
5ercent of flood E5S e;ceeding 1igh E*AS threshold based on forecast of 200$0!" "2-00, days before the flooding
,sar
22? # ?
Raba
"0?
F#$)7(767&= S&u*= D !u8>&) 1 &!?$ *) !A Eu !"#$% D !u8>& A6# & S=)&#' (EDAS)
Soil moisture development drought year "<% (odelled soil moisture moisture /ormali@ed modelled soil
5roductsB D#&$76#* !;# ;7#? !A C67'$&# 9>$%8# . 'onsistent methodology #AA#9&) !% A6!!*) $%* . >ransboundary analysis * !u8>&) 7% Eu !"# . 5an-European hydrological model combined 9ithannual ma;imum daily precipitation B 'hanged *lood ris: +(,- change in average regional climate model B 'hanged +rought ris: .
(ost areas in Europe are blue meaning they face an increase
/alidation:
&D>8&&E. Dsing SR>( and ''(2 . Dsing 8,S*8&&+-*5 for flood ha@ard = inundation modelling
=>
by Elisabetta Genovese
by Elisabetta Genovese
"ndustrial area remain the same, $emand %or commercial and services? land use dou&les
"ndustrial area remain the same, $emand %or commercial and services? land use dou&les
)mportance of motor'ays
>ow
(edium
)igh
Scenario A 2lo94
Scenario F 2baseline4
2000
"$00 residential continuous residential discontinuous >$ "000 industrial areas commercial services $00
E-6F>''$67" (BR,6C$/)!: historic and static hydrometeo data "$AD, >" F>''$ A>ER9 (BR,6C$/)!: realtime discharge (7R$,! oil data (BR,6E D!, currently 4(, ;<5k ongoing, %urther detailE )igh resolution $E( %or Europe (&etter than R9(F >"$AR Guality! %or %lood risk mapping (7(E E! 'ther satellite &ased products (snow water eGuivalent, soil moisture! 9"77E * )E.EH
-pdating model simulations (data assimilation!
-sing multi6model outputs, &oth deterministic and pro&a&ilistic (ensem&les! to estimate %lood & drought pro&a&ility & uncertainty
,ommunication o% uncertainty (%lood pro&a&ility! to end6users and general pu&lic >inking climate change, land use changes with %lood & drought risk: inclusion o% %eed&ack mechanisms: E3amine the earliest possi&le moment to issue relia&le warnings &ased on multi6model and pro&a&ilistic model outputs -se o% monthly and seasonal %orecasts %or droughts Applying and %urther development o% the tools outside Europe
E3ample >" F>''$ & ('>A/$
ad.de-roo@jrc.i
Automated data6%low %rom data owner (/)( ! to application*user (e+g+ EFA , E$A ! $issemination o% results: providing controlled access to we&services with results (e+g+ %orecasts, damage & risk mapping! 8isuali=e availa&le data per varia&le per timewindow per geographic area 8iew service to access topographic &ackground in%ormation (e+g+ %lood e3tent com&ined with critical in%rastructure, &uildings, I! tandardi=ed download service %or %ast data delivery
)NS#)1E impact
Some pro$lems to $e addressed )ydro6(eteorological in%ormation*data hard to %ind )NS#)1E solutions "/ ."RE will: 6'&lige pu&lic &odies to create metadata 6(ake sure that this metadata is made availa&le through catalog or we& services 6,reate a European6wide access point %or discovery "/ ."RE will make data policies and licenses transparent "/ ."RE will esta&lish harmoni=ed data speci%ications (e+g+, spatial re%erence systems, grid!, including speci%ications %or trans%ormation and e3change o% in%ormation "/ ."RE will %acilitate the delivery o% products via secure, re6usa&le, we& services "/ ."RE will provide %ree view services and on line access to critical in%rastructure
.olicies %or )ydro6(eteorological in%ormation*data hinder data acGuisition 9ime6consuming data conversion (%ormat, units, re%erence systems, etc+!F time6consuming real6time data collection ensitive products (%orecasts, risk maps, damage maps! need to &e delivered to $7s and /) $i%%iculty in access critical in%rastructure, &uildings