SUPPLEMENT TO CHAPTER 4 RELIABILITY

Teaching Notes
1. 2. 3. The Main topics of this chapter are Quantifying Reliability Role of Redundancy Availability Reliability is a measure of the ability of a product, part, or system to perform its intended function under a prescribed set of conditions. Quantitative methods include the use of probabilities addition, multiplication, complements! in determining reliability and the use of "#ponential and $ormal distributions in determining the mean time bet%een failures used in availability!. &tudents seem to have some difficulty %ith "#ponential distribution, especially if they have not had it in their statistics courses. The coverage of "#ponential distribution can be omitted %ithout loss of continuity. The $ormal distribution should be included because it paves the %ay for later use of inventory management and 'uality control sampling theory.

Answers to Disc ssion an! Re"iew # estions

1. Reliability is a measure of the ability of a product or service to perform its intended function under a prescribed set of conditions, i.e. not failing. 2. (f a product is composed of a large number of parts, it can conceivably have a lo% reliability because its reliability is a function of the products of the individual reliabilities. )or e#ample if a product has 2* parts, each %ith a reliability of .++, and all must operate, the overall product reliability %ill only be about .++ 2* , .-1-. 3. Redundancy refers to bac.up parts or systems built into a product or service!. Their purpose is to increase reliability by ta.ing over in the event that a primary part or system fails.

So$ tions
1. a. / operate! , .+2 , .-1 b. .+ .+ .+ .+ 0.+* 1 .1* .+*!2 0.+* 1 .1* .+*!2 , .+-*1

c. 0.+* 1 .++ .1*! .+*!22 , .+3-3 2. 3. .+4 # .+4 # .++ # .++ , .+*33 53 , .+2 # , .+324

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63

Solutions (continued) 7. 8 , 1*/! 2 per component 2 1*/! 2 , 133 1**/2 , -4.6 /2 , .-46 / , .+3 a. +3 # .+3 # .++ , .+316 b. .+316 1 1 9 .+316! # .+316 , .++63 0i.e., / %or.! 1 / not %or.! # / bac.up %or.s!2 c. .+316 1 0 1 9 .+316! # .+- # .+3162 , .++7 0i.e., / %or.! 1 0/ not %or.! # / s%itch %or.s! # / bac.up %or.s!2 4. a. .+- # .+6 # .+7 # .+* , .3-34 b. (f 1st: 0.+- 1 1 9 .+-! # .+-2 # .+6 # .+7 # .+* , .-*37 (f 2nd: .+- # 0.+6 1 1 9 .+6! # .+62 # .+7 # .+* , .-23* (f 3rd: .+- # .+6 # 0.+7 1 1 ; .+7! # .+72 # .+* , .-37+ (f 7th: .+- # .+6 # .+7 # 0.+* 1 1 9 .+*! # .+*2 , .-447 0i.e., for any case, / all other %or.! # / that one fails! # / bac.up %or.s!2 The fourth component should be bac.ed up. c. The one %ith a reliability of .+* since it poses the greatest ris. of failure. The system reliability %ill then be .-4-17. 3. a. <1: /line , .++ # .+4 # .+3 , .--3+ / line %or.s! 1 / line fails! # / bac.up %or.s! , .--3+ 1 0 1 9 .--3+! # .--3+!2 , .+-46 <2:
.++ .++ .+4 .+4 .++ .++ .+4 .+4 .+3 .+3

6.

.+3 .+3

/: .++ 1 0 1 9 .++! # .++2 .+4 1 0 1 9 .+4! # .+42 , .++++ , .++-7 =verall: .++++ # .++-7 # .++61 , .++37 /lan 2 is better .++37 > .+-46!

.+3 1 0 1 9 .+3! # .+32 , .++61

b. (n <1 the system %ill fail if any one original and any one bac.up fail. (n <2 the system %ill fail only if a component and its bac.up fail. c. &pace for a line versus space for individual bac.ups, ease of shifting to bac.ups %hen needed, possible cost differences.

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Operations Management, 2/ce

-.

a.

Solutions (continued) -. a. Rsystem , .--3+ 1 0 1 9 .--3+! # .+- # .--3+2

, .+-76
The decrease in reliability is .+-46 9 .+-76 , .**2 a. Rsystem , .++ 1 0 1 9 .++! # .+- # .++2! .+4 1 0 1 9 .+4! # .+- # .+42! .+3 1 0 1 9 .+3! # .

+- # .+32! , .+++3 # .++34 # .++3- , .++11

The decrease in reliability is .++37 9 .++11 , .**23 +. # , reliability #6 , .+# , .++4 0# 1 1 ; #!#2 #7! , #6 1 1 ;#!#6 , 2#6 ; #4 , #6 2 9 #! , .+# , .++6 0by trial and error2 $ot completed in time means no team completes in time: / not team <1! # / not team <2! # / not team <3! , 1 ; .+! # 1 ; .-! # 1 ; .3! , .1 .2! .3! , .**4 a. 1! 2! 3! b. 1! 2! 3! T 3+ 74* 33 16 4 T?MT@) 1.3 1.4 2.* 1.1 .6 .2 e;T?MT@) .2326 .2*1+ .1363 1 ; .33+2 , .44*1 ; .4*46 , .3+36 1 ; .-1-3 , .1-13 0from Table 7&912

1*.

11.

12.

c. T 1! 2! 3! 7! 13.

1; e;T?MT@)! 6*A -6A +6A ++A approx .3 1.+ 3.* 7.4 21 mo. 63 +* 13-

MT@) , 3* months a. T , 3* months 3* T ? MT@) = = 1 .* 3* 1 ; e;T?MT@) , 1 ; .343+ , .4321 b. 1 ; e;T?MT@) , .1*, so e;T?MT@) , .+*. Bence, T?MT@) , .1* T , .1* 3* months! , 3 months.

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Solutions (continued) 17. MT@) , 6,*** hours a. T , 4,***

T ? MT@) = 4,*** =1.2 6,***
) T!

e;T?MT@) , .3*12 b. T , 1,***

T ? MT@) =
;T?MT@)

1,*** = .2 6,***
*

.1-13

.6136

1;e , 1 ; .-1-3 , .1-13 c. / 1,*** # 4,***! , .-1-3 ;.3*12 .6136 16. MT@) , 4 years T a. >+ b. C12 c. +CTC12 d. >21 , 71 mo. , 7 mo. a. b.
< 3- : D =

.3*12

1,***

4,***

hours

T?MT@) e;T?MT@) ) T! 1.6 .2231 2.* 1 ; .1363 , .-473 .-473 ; 1 9 .2231! ,.*-33.6 .*3*2

.-473

.2231

.*3*2 .*-3-

14.

12

21

years

3- 71 = .36. /robability , .2244 )rom App. @ Table @! 7 7* 71 = .26. /robability , .6 9 .7*13 , .*+-3 )rom App. @ Table @! 7

7* < T < 76 : D = D 76 =

76 71 =1.**. /robability , .3713 )rom App. @ Table A! 7 Total probability , .77**

c. 2 months is .6 , 2 .1+16! , .3-3* App. @ Table A! a.

.2244

71 c.

b.
.*+-3 .3713

.1+16

3-

71

7* 71

76

3+ 71 73

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Operations Management, 2/ce

.1+16

Solutions (continued) 13. , 4 years , .6 years a. 1! 64 = 2.** .6 1 .*22- = .+332 Appendi# @, Table @! > 6 yr : z = > 6 yr : z = 44 = *.** .6 = .6***
.6*** .+332

.++-3

92

2!

3.6 4 = +3.** 3! .6 = .++-3( "ppen#ix $, %a&le $) 3 ! yr : z = 74 = 7.** .6 Therefore, appro#imately Dero. a. 2A: )ind 2A in App. A Table @: D is 92.*66. 1 D , 4 9 2.*66 .6! , 7.+3 yr. b. 6A: )ind 6A in App. A Table @: D is 91.476. 1 D , 4 9 1.476 .6! , 6.1- yr. b. 1-. ' 7 yr : z =
2A 92.*66 7.+3 * 4
D9scale yr9scale

97

6A 91.476 6.1* 4
D9scale yr9scale

1+. 2*. 21.

MT@) MT@) + MTR MT@) Availability = MT@) + MTR 172 Availability A = = .+63 172 + 3 46 Availability @ = = .+3* 46 + 2 Availability =
8urrent Availability =

a.

7* 3** = .+3 b. = .+7* + 3 3** + 4 6* a. = .+42 6* + 2

22.

1** = .+42 1** + 7

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a. (ncrease in MT@) , .*6! 1**! , 6 hrs. $e% MT@) , 1** 1 6 , 1*6 hrs. 1*6 1*6 Availability = = = .+433 1*6 + 7 1*+ b. Reduction in MTR , .1! 7 hrs.! , .7 hrs. $e% MTR , 7 hrs 9 .7 hrs , 3.4 hrs. 1** Availability = = .+463 1** + 3.4 &ince .+463 > .+433, designer should choose to reduce MTR, especially because it costs less. ) = ( 7 7.3 = = 2.33 .3 *() 2.33) = .**++ (from Appendi# @, Table @)

23.

a.

Ee %ould e#pect appro#imately 1A of the batteries to fail before the %arranty period ends. b. &ince 67 months , 7.6 years, 5 , 7.6. ) = ( 7.6 7.3 = = .43 .3 *() .43) = .2617 (from Appendi# @, Table @)

Ee %ould e#pect appro#imately 26A of the batteries to fail before the %arranty period ends. Therefore, for each individual battery, the company %ould have to charge 26 ; 1 , 27A of price of the battery 1 F6! more. c. (n addition to price of the battery, the company should consider: 1. /ossible lost future sales of this type of battery as %ell as lost sales of other products manufactured and sold by the company due to a high volume of replaced batteriesG 2. /ossible loss of good %ill, reputation, and poor image in the mar.et due to higher failure rateG 3. The capacity to handle the additional load of battery production and battery e#changes due to failuresG 7. The amount of additional business generated as a result of adding the premium battery. (n other %ords the company must consider the trade9off bet%een the additional business generated from the premium battery vs. the cannibaliDation of the current base and the e#isting batteries.!

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