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UsingUsing biotechnologybiotechnology inin HungarianHungarian agriculture:agriculture: possiblepossible farmfarm levellevel impactsimpacts

GrahamGraham BrookesBrookes PGPG EconomicsEconomics UKUK

www.pgeconomics.co.ukwww.pgeconomics.co.uk

CoverageCoverage

GlobalGlobal contextcontext && impactimpact PossiblePossible farmfarm levellevel economiceconomic && environmentalenvironmental impactsimpacts inin HungaryHungary CoCo--existenceexistence issuesissues

GlobalGlobal plantingsplantings toto GMGM cropscrops 19961996-- 20042004 ((000000 hectares)hectares)

90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
'000 hectares

GlobalGlobal farmfarm levellevel economiceconomic impactimpact

2004:2004: farmfarm incomeincome benefitbenefit $6.5$6.5 billionbillion 2004:2004: equivequiv toto addingadding valuevalue toto globalglobal productionproduction ofof thesethese cropscrops ofof 3.1%3.1% toto

4.2%4.2%

SinceSince 1996,1996, farmfarm incomeincome gaingain == $27$27 billionbillion

FarmFarm incomeincome gains:gains: byby country:country:

19961996--20042004 millionmillion $$

Canada $807 million increase Mexico $41 million increase
Canada
$807 million increase
Mexico
$41 million increase
India $124 million increase
India
$124 million increase

United States $10.7 billion increase

South Africa
South Africa

$56 million increase

China $4.2 billion increase

Africa $56 million increase China $4.2 billion increase Australia $70 million increase — Brazil $829 million
Africa $56 million increase China $4.2 billion increase Australia $70 million increase — Brazil $829 million
Australia $70 million increase
Australia
$70 million increase

Brazil $829 million increase Paraguay $80 million increase

Argentina $10.1 billion increase

OtherOther farmfarm levellevel benefitsbenefits

GM HT crops

GM IR crops

Increased management flexibility/convenience

Production risk management tool

Less knock back

Energy cost savings

Facilitation of no till practices

Machinery use savings

Cleaner crops = lower harvest cost & quality premia

Convenience benefit

Less damage in follow on crops

Improved crop quality

 

Improved health & safety for farmers/workers

ImpactImpact onon pesticidepesticide useuse

SignificantSignificant reductionreduction inin globalglobal environmentalenvironmental impactimpact ofof productionproduction agricultureagriculture SinceSince 19961996 useuse ofof pesticidespesticides downdown byby 172172 mm kgkg ((--6%)6%) && associatedassociated environmentalenvironmental footprintfootprint --

14%14%

InIn 2004,2004, reductionreduction inin volumevolume ofof useuse ((--4242 millionmillion kg)kg) isis equivalentequivalent toto 32%32% ofof totaltotal activeactive ingredientingredient useuse inin EUEU arablearable cropcrop productionproduction

ImpactImpact onon greenhousegreenhouse gasgas emissionsemissions

LowerLower GHGGHG emissions:emissions: 22 mainmain sourcessources::

ReducedReduced fuelfuel useuse (less(less sprayingspraying && soilsoil

cultivation)cultivation) == 1.11.1 billionbillion kgskgs lessless co2co2 releasedreleased
20042004

GMGM HTHT cropscrops facilitatefacilitate nono tilltill systemssystems == lessless soilsoil preparationpreparation == additionaladditional soilsoil carboncarbon sequestrationsequestration (2004:(2004: 9.49.4 billionbillion kgskgs lessless co2co2 released)released)

TotalTotal globalglobal benefitbenefit inin 20042004 == equivalentequivalent toto removingremoving 20%20% ofof UKUK carscars fromfrom thethe roadroad

PossiblePossible farmfarm levellevel economiceconomic impactimpact inin Hungary:Hungary: focusfocus onon maizemaize

33 piecespieces ofof technologytechnology::

HerbicideHerbicide tolerancetolerance InsectInsect resistanceresistance (Bt)(Bt) toto EuropeanEuropean corncorn borerborer InsectInsect resistanceresistance toto corncorn rootwormrootworm

SeeSee handoutshandouts forfor datadata supportingsupporting summarysummary analysisanalysis inin followingfollowing slidesslides

PotentialPotential commercialcommercial farmfarm levellevel impactimpact ofof usingusing GMGM technologytechnology (per(per ha)ha) onon graingrain maizemaize cropscrops inin HungaryHungary

 

Herbicide tolerant (grain) maize

Insect resistant (grain) maize

Yield

No expected impact: possibly small improvement

+4.5% to +10% where economic losses currently incurred

Variable costs of production

A decrease of between 7.9% and 8.4% from lower costs of herbicides

An increase in variable costs of between 5.6% and 8.4% (the seed premium for the technology being greater than any costs savings from reduced insecticide use)

Gross margin

+2.3% to +3%

+3.8% to +4.8% GM IR targeting the corn borer and +9.3% GM IR targeting corn rootworm

profitability

Other impacts

Increased management flexibility and better weed control

Increased management flexibility, reduced production risk, lower levels of mycotoxins

Possible adoption % (in terms of total grain maize crop)

40%

10% for GM IR targeting the European corn borer, 460,000 ha for GM IR targeting corn rootworm

National level impact on farm income (baseline 2004)

+6.3 to +8.27 million euros

+2.66 to +3.34 million euros: GM IR targeting corn borer +24.2 million euros: GM IR targeting corn rootworm

WhatWhat isis coco--existence?existence?

CoCo--existenceexistence relatesrelates toto ‘‘thethe economiceconomic

consequencesconsequences ofof adventitiousadventitious presencepresence ofof materialmaterial fromfrom oneone cropcrop inin anotheranother andand thethe principleprinciple thatthat farmersfarmers shouldshould bebe ableable toto cultivatecultivate freelyfreely thethe agriculturalagricultural cropscrops theythey choose,choose, bebe itit GMGM crops,crops, conventionalconventional oror organicorganic cropscrops’’ (EU(EU

CommissionCommission 2003)2003) IsIs notnot aboutabout product/cropproduct/crop safetysafety butbut aboutabout productionproduction andand marketingmarketing ofof cropscrops approvedapproved forfor useuse

IsIs coco--existenceexistence anan issue?issue?

IsIs onlyonly anan issueissue wherewhere therethere isis demanddemand forfor nonnon GMGM

CoCo--existenceexistence onon thethe farmfarm today:today:

nothingnothing newnew

SeparationSeparation ofof spacespace SeparationSeparation ofof timetime CommunicationCommunication withwith neighboursneighbours GoodGood farmfarm practicespractices

CoCo--existenceexistence experienceexperience inin SpainSpain

NoNo economiceconomic oror commercialcommercial problemsproblems havehave occurredoccurred

MainstreamMainstream buyersbuyers ofof nonnon GMGM (starch)(starch) havehave nono problemproblem inin sourcingsourcing nonnon GMGM eveneven inin mainmain areasareas wherewhere GMGM isis growngrown (including(including fromfrom coco--opsops withwith GMGM andand nonnon GMGM growergrower members)members) IsolatedIsolated instancesinstances ofof GMGM presencepresence inin organicorganic cropscrops citedcited inin 20012001 –– lacklack ofof datadata toto supportsupport claimsclaims –– likelylikely causecause useuse ofof conventionalconventional seedseed (not(not tested)tested)

claimsclaims –– likelylikely causecause useuse ofof conventionalconventional seedseed (not(not tested)tested)

CoCo--existenceexistence requiresrequires coco--operationoperation

CoCo--existenceexistence requiresrequires ‘‘givegive && taketake’’ onon allall sidessides

EmphasisEmphasis shouldshould notnot bebe placedplaced allall onon GMGM sectorsector

KeyKey principlesprinciples forfor goodgood coco-- existenceexistence

ContextContext

ConsistencyConsistency

ProportionalityProportionality

EquityEquity

PracticalityPracticality

DevelopingDeveloping coco--existenceexistence guidelines/rulesguidelines/rules inin anyany country,country, region,region, localitylocality

ApplyApply fivefive generalgeneral principlesprinciples –– context,context, consistency,consistency, proportionality,proportionality, equityequity && practicalitypracticality

AdaptAdapt thesethese principlesprinciples toto local,local, casecase byby casecase cropcrop productionproduction inin aa regionregion

ConcludingConcluding commentscomments

BenefitBenefit fromfrom GMGM cropcrop adoptionadoption variesvaries withwith levellevel ofof pestpest && weedweed pproblemsroblems == variesvaries byby regionregion andand yearyear OffersOffers substantialsubstantial benefitsbenefits toto somesome farmersfarmers butbut ofof marginalmarginal benebenefitfit toto othersothers == notnot aa technologytechnology forfor allall farmersfarmers MainMain benefitsbenefits toto thethe farmer;farmer; higherhigher yield,yield, improvedimproved farmfarm profitaprofitability,bility, convenience,convenience, riskrisk managementmanagement andand lessless exposureexposure toto pesticidespesticides MainMain benefitsbenefits toto society:society: contributioncontribution toto lowerlower costs/realcosts/real priceprices,s, improvedimproved graingrain qualityquality (less(less mycotoxinsmycotoxins)) andand improvedimproved environmentalenvironmental ‘‘footfoot printprint’’ (less(less spraying)spraying) CoCo--existenceexistence isis nothingnothing new:new: farmersfarmers havehave beenbeen implementingimplementing effectieffectiveve measuresmeasures forfor manymany yearsyears onon specialistspecialist cropscrops GMGM && nonnon GMGM cropcrop coco--existenceexistence hashas notnot beenbeen aa problemproblem toto datedate ToolsTools existexist toto implementimplement coco--existenceexistence SpainSpain isis aa modelmodel ofof howhow coco--existenceexistence worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember statesstates shouldshould copycopy

worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy
worksworks successfullysuccessfully –– otherother membermember states states should should copy copy