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CONTENTS
Cover Story
31
Editorial Principles
Value Research is an independent investment research company. Our goal is to serve our readers with data, information and knowledge that informs them about savings and investments and helps them learn how to make better choices. The basis of our work is the trust reposed in us by our readers. We are independent, fair and honest. We are committed to achieving the highest level of accuracy and impartiality in everything that we publish. We recognise that the nature of our work is such that it influences decisions that affect our readers future. We strive to bear this responsibility with humility. We recognise that while it is not possible to be 100 per cent accurate, it is possible to always strive to achieve that standard to the best of our abilities.
Interview
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Quick Chat
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Editor Dhirendra Kumar Research & Editorial Avneet Kaur, Bharti Pareek, Chirag Madia, Prasobh MG, Renu Yadav, Sandeep P & Vivek Malik Design Mukul Ojha & Kiran Sindhwal Production Hira Lal
ADVERTISING
Venkat K Naidu: 09664048666 Biswa Ranjan Palo: 09664075875 Address your correspondence to: Editor, Mutual Fund Insight 5 Commercial Complex, Chitra Vihar, Delhi-110092, India e-mail: editor@valueresearchonline.com
Apoorva Shah
Vetri Subramaniam
CIO at Religare Invesco
Betting on Value
2013 Value Research India Pvt. Ltd. Mutual Fund Insight is owned by Value Research India Pvt. Ltd., 5, Commercial Complex, Chitra Vihar, Delhi 110092. Contact (Delhi) 011-2245-7916/18, (Mumbai) 022-22838665/22838198. Editor: Dhirendra Kumar. Printed and published by Dhirendra Kumar on behalf of Value Research India Pvt. Ltd. Published at 5, Commercial Complex, Chitra Vihar, Delhi 110 092. Printed at Option Printofast, 46, Patparganj Industrial Area, Delhi -92.
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52
Economic Viewpoint
PARANJOY GUHA THAKURTA
Chasing sensation over facts
11 First Page
39 54 57 61 85
12 Readers Viewpoint
A platform for youthe readerto put forward your views and reviews
The Plan
Our experts analyse a portfolio threadbare and chart out the future course
14 Fund Diary
Scorecard
The most comprehensive fund scorecard with key performance numbers and investment details
A chronicle of all important announcements by the AMCs over the last month
16 Fund Radar
36 Category Watch
DISCLAIMER
The contents of Mutual Fund Insight published by Value Research India Private Limited (the Magazine) are not intended to serve as professional advice or guidance and the Magazine takes no responsibility or liability, express or implied, whatsoever for any investment decisions made or taken by the readers of this Magazine based on its contents thereof. You are strongly advised to verify the contents before taking any investment or other decision based on the contents of this Magazine. The Magazine is meant for general reading purposes only and is not meant to serve as a professional guide for investors. The readers of this Magazine should exercise due caution and/or seek independent professional advice before entering into any commercial or business relationship or making any investment decision or entering into any financial obligation based on any information, statement or opinion which is contained, provided or expressed in this Magazine. The Magazine contains information, statements, opinions, statistics and materials that have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable and the publishers of the Magazine have made best efforts to avoid any errors and omissions, however the publishers of this Magazine make no guarantees and warranties whatsoever, express or implied, regarding the timeliness, completeness, accuracy, adequacy, fullness, functionality and/or reliability of the information, statistics, statements, opinions and materials contained and/or expressed in this Magazine or of the results obtained, direct or consequential, from the use of such information, statistics, statements, opinions and materials. The publishers of this Magazine do not certify and/or endorse any opinions contained, provided, published or expressed in this Magazine. Reproduction of this publication in any form or by any means whatsoever without prior written permission of the publishers of this Magazine is strictly prohibited. All disputes shall be subject to the jurisdiction of Delhi courts only. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
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Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
STEP 1
STEP 2
STEP 3
THE PROBLEM
Your investments earn also when you receive dividends and bonuses. And when you have SIPs running as well, it understandably becomes difficult to figure out how much each of your investments are earning. But when you have more than one SIP running in different funds, you can get lost in trying to review exactly how much each fund has earned.
THE SOLUTION
The Value Research Portfolio Manager takes into account every investment-related transaction of your portfolio. From the systematic or lump sum mutual fund investments to the shares you buy, from the dividends and bonuses you receive to the money you take out, fill in the details of these transactions and watch it tell you about the returns that your are earning.
THE PAYOFF
8
Mutual Fund Insight January 2014
First Page
Changed Rules
Last weeks issue of The Economist magazine carried an intriguing article about the fading fortunes of a certain type of hedge fund. Since 2009, quant, or trend following funds, have suffered a severe reversal of fortunes. These hedge funds used to make decent returns till 2007. Even in 2008, when the global markets crashed, they did well. The distinctive thing about these funds is that they employ automated, rules-based trading that is guided by pre-decided algorithms. While the algorithms are programmes created manually, the actual trading is without any manual interventions. So why have these funds stopped doing well since 2009? According to data quoted in the magazine, in the five years to 2008, trendfollowing funds generated returns ranging from 7 to 18 per cent. Such returns are very high because we are talking of investments in Europe and the US, where inflation is miniscule and risk-free returns like bank deposits have negligible returns. Incidentally, the 18 per cent returns were for 2008, when all other types of investments did very badly indeed. In India, the Sensex was down 52.45 per cent during that year. However, the years that followed have been bad for these funds. Clearly, the computer algorithms have stopped working, and the models that were so good at pre-
dicting trends till 2008 are in trouble now. The question is, why has this happened? The Economist discusses an interesting theory, that the flaw lies not with the quant funds or with their algorithms but with the markets! On the face of it, this sounds like a joke. After all, the world is full of cranks who believe that their theories are correct but the world makes a mistake when it doesnt behave according to them. But the idea does have some merit. The basic problem is that since 2008, markets have been moving less according to market forces and more according to the actions (and inactions) of governments and monetary authorities. The idea is that it matters little if the trend following funds can identify the trends that the markets are showing. Take the latest example, which is the Federal Reserves announcement of its tapering and then its postponement. Around the world, all markets, not just equities but also bonds, currencies and commodities, have spent a few months driven back and forth by nothing but tapering. Equity analysts understand little of the ebb and flow of American politics but have been busy guessing whether Barack Obama will make Larry Summers the next Fed chief or whether he will choose Janet Yellen. The worst part is that this has damaged the basis of diversification. And its not just the US. Even more so in India, its now all about politics and government. It matters little whether you choose the safest blue chip or the most speculative small-cap adventurer. Which government comes to power matters more in how much money investors will make.
Dhirendra Kumar
EDITOR
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READERS VIEWPOINT
COVER STORY
FUND RADAR
NOTHING TO CHEER
YOUR STORY NOT YET IN THE PINK OF health was quite timely. The fact that media is creating a sense of euphoria when there is nothing to rejoice needs to be stopped urgently. Fact remains that despite the highs witnessed by the markets over the past
few weeks, things have not improved for mutual fund companies. Reliance and HDFC together having more than 50 per cent of the entire fund industry assets cannot be termed as an ideal thing. The industry struggle continues... Deepak Garg, email
WAY TO GO
GUESTS COLUMN
was quite distressed after reading the story about the rally in equity market being a temporary phenomena. Anyway Indian stocks have not moved much in the past five years, direct stock investors are sitting on huge losses and just waiting for the good times. You have explained the reasons behind this rally to be the drifting FII investments, which will change direction with the tapering moves of the US. The Modi angle was an interesting perspective to look at the rally. I believe this to be a strong reason because Indian markets fluctuate more for notional reasons than reality. This proenterprise leader has influenced a good number of people, the election result will again shake the market, hopefully in the positive direction. Devesh Shah, Ahmedabad
IT WAS INTERESTING TO READ PARAG PARIKHS OPINION ON money management, considering he recently established the PPFAS AMC. Offering just one fund, he has accused other AMCs of excessively competitive marketing and needlessly launching multiple and overlapping schemes. His claims that money management is a profession and not business, brings in an element of respect and credibility to the profession. I agree with his views when he talks about creating HNIs with equity investments and not chasing them. His views reflect his experience in the field and I am sure he will work towards ensuring investors in his fund earn
favourable returns with the conservative investing approach he preaches. Even when he launched his fund five months back, he did not reach out to distributors to sell his fund. He gathered assets on the basis of his goodwill and past performance of the former PMS schemes he managed. Everything about his management style and investment philosophy is pretty clear to prospective investors. What stands out most is the belief in his philosophy that has ensured investments by the management in this fund scheme. Lets just hope he continues to practice what he preaches. Rajesh Kini, Mumbai
5 QUESTIONS
DIMINISHING RETURNS
The interview with Neelesh Surana was informative and had a sobering effect regarding why we must not put all our eggs in the same basket, i.e., FMCG. Fine that it has delivered impressive returns over the past few years when everything seemed lost, but that is no guarantee for similar returns in coming years. I have already started diversifying my assets, lest I am caught on the wrong foot. Vimal, email
mfi@valueresearchonline.com
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FUND DIARY
Important and interesting announcements made by AMCs in the past month that may leave a lasting impact on your investments and investment decisions
CHANGE IN MANAGEMENT
Axis Capital Protection Ori- Sr 5 Old: R Sivakumar, Sudhanshu Asthana New: Sudhanshu Asthana, Devang Shah Axis Hybrid Fund Series 7 Old: Devang Shah New: Jinesh Gopani, Devang Shah ICICI Pru US Bluechip Equity Old: Atul Patel New: Abhishek Pathak (US) Rohan Maru (India) ICICI Pru Global Stable Equity Old: Atul Patel New: Abhishek Pathak (equity), Rohan Maru (debt) ICICI Pru Indo Asia Equity Old: Atul Patel New: Manish Gunwani (India) Abhishek Pathak (Asia). All FMPs offered by ICICI Pru MF will be managed by Rahul Goswami and Rohan Maru. All plans under ICICI Pru Capital Protection Oriented and Multiple Yield Fund will be managed by Rajat Chandak (equity), Rahul Goswami (debt) and Aditya Pagaria (debt).
LOAD CHANGES
Scheme Effective Date Revised exit load (%) Period (days) Old exit load (%) Period (days)
REVISION
Religare Invesco Medium Term Bond FT India Feeder- Franklin US Opp HDFC Arbitrage ICICI Prudential Short Term Baroda Pioneer Short Term Bond ICICI Pru Advisor Series- LT Savings ICICI Pru Exports and Other Services 20 Nov, 13 29 Nov, 13 29 Nov, 13 02 Dec, 13 05 Dec, 13 06 Dec, 13 9 Dec, 13 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 2.5 90 540 90 365 180 1095 730 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.1 1 1 45 365 180 180 15 365 365
NO LOAD
Religare Invesco Active Income Birla Sun Life Enhanced Arbitrage JM Money Manager Fund- Super HDFC Gilt Fund- Long Term DWS Cash Opportunities ICICI Prudential Income 15 Nov, 13 18 Nov, 13 1 0.75 0.5 18 Nov, 13 25 Nov, 13 01 Dec, 13 02 Dec, 13 0.1 0.25 0.25 1 45 90 90-180 30 90 90 365
Old: Daiwa GSF- ST Plan New: SBI Benchmark G Sec Daiwa Liquid has been merged into SBI Magnum Instacash Fund- Liquid Floater Plan. ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund renamed ICICI Pru Advisor Series-Aggressive Plan to ICICI Pru Advisor Series- LT Savings Plan. The fund house also renamed ICICI Pru Floating Rate Plan to ICICI Pru Savings Fund.
schemes barring the Axis Gold ETF. The eligible funds can be the source or target schemes to avail the facility . Principal MF enabled SIP facility in Principal Cash Mgmt Fund and Principal Retail Money Manager.
NEW FACILITY
BSL Mutual Fund changed the maximum amount, per lump sum investment, to `1 lakh per investor per day in BSL Enhanced Arbitrage Fund. Axis MF introduced Dividend Sweep Option for all the
FUND RADAR
Closed-end ride
Recent spate of several closed-end fund launches needs thorough understanding
he race to launch closed-end funds got hotter this year with the recent NFOs of six schemes, which should set the ball rolling for more such funds. In March 2013, six closed-end funds were launched. The launch of these schemes was in accordance with the Ministry of Finances November 23, 2012, notification which extended inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds under the Rajiv Gandhi Equity Scheme (RGESS). In all, these six schemes under the RGESS collected a total of `240 crore of retail investor money in this scheme with three year lock-in. The recent fund launches are a culmination of changes in the fund management business over the past four years. The main change in the business model has been the abolition of entry loads that could be charged from investors and paid to distributors to RGESS Searching for uniqueness incentivise them to go sell. Closed-end funds are differBirla SL RGESS Series 1 IDFC Equity Opportunity Series 1 ent. In case of a closed-end fund, a fund house can DSPBR RGESS Series 1 ICICI Pru Value Series I charge 2.5 per cent of the amount managed per year from investors funds. HDFC RGESS Series 1 Union KBC Trigger Series 1 In case of close-end funds, the investor is locked in IDBI RGESS Series 1 Plan A Axis Small Cap for a long time. For instance, in case of a five-year LIC Nomura MF RGESS Series 1 Reliance Close Ended Equity Ser A closed-end fund, the 2.5 per cent annual charge means UTI RGESS Retail ICICI Pru Value Series 2 that the fund house knows that it is likely to be able to eventually charge around 12.5 per cent of the amount invested, perhaps more if the markets take off. This tages that open-ended funds had for investors won out creates a basis for paying a large sales commission of and there was an almost total shift towards them. say, 5 per cent, to attract investments. Unlike open-ended funds, investors can In comparison, in open-ended funds, invest in close-end funds only during the CAVEAT EMPTOR: investors can withdraw their money any initial issue and withdraw when the tenure CLOSE-END FUNDS ends. There are also some other potential time, there is very little basis for paying an A fund house can charge intermediary anything more than a problems. The best way to invest in a fund 2.5 per cent of the smallperhaps half a per centcommission is to do so gradually through a Systematic amount managed per year from investors in a for attracting investments. The unintended Investment Plan (SIP), something that is closed-end fund consequence of these two things could impossible when investing in closed-end Since closed-end funds well be the return of closed-end funds. funds. Moreover, you do not have the benehave a fixed tenure, fit of investing in a fund with a track record, investors can invest only during the initial issue which leaves investors in the uncomfortable Marketing spiel and withdraw when the position of having to invest based entirely Fund managers argue that in a closed-end tenure ends on the fund companys track record on simifund, they can do a better job because they Closed-end funds by design are only meant lar funds. Its ironic that closed-end funds are sure of the tenure for which the money to be invested into are making a comeback in India as a conseis available to them. More than twenty during the NFO and in a lump sum quence of regulatory changes that were years ago, closed-end funds were the norm meant to benefit investors. in India. However, gradually, the advan-
CLOSED-END MENU
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FUND RADAR
or manyin fact, mostsectors, there is a sharp divergence between the biggest names in the sector and the one that is most preferred by equity fund managers. Take autos, for instance. The biggest stock by market capitalisation (`1.04 lakh crore) is Tata Motors. However, mutual funds most popular pick is Maruti Suzuki. Tata Motors is there in 109 funds portfolios with a total investment of `480 crore while Maruti Suzuki is there in 157 portfolios with a total investment of `2,263 crore. Interestingly, fund managers have a clear preference for the Tata Motors DVR over Tata Motors stock, which is the second biggest holding in auto sector.
Moreover, fund managers have preferred stocks like Motherson Sumi System, a mid cap which has a market value of `16,000 crore over heavyweights like Bajaj Auto and Mahindra & Mahindra. Their holdings in Motherson are `1,072 crore compared to `589 crore in Bajaj Auto and 492 in Mahindra & Mahindra. A total of 56 funds are invested in Motherson Sumi, 109 in Bajaj Auto and 114 in Mahindra & Mahindra. In the engineering sector, the biggest stock by market cap is BHEL, which is, in fact, the only large-cap stock in engineering sector. However, its nowhere near being the most widely held stockits not even in the top-10.
No. of MFs invested 157 41 213 15 68 204 213 70 236 183 173 140 90 209 28
Biggest stock in the sector* Tata Motors Asian Paints Bharti Airtel Titan Industries Ultratech Cement Larsen & Toubro Reliance Industries Bharat Heavy Electricals HDFC Bank ITC Sun Pharmaceutical Inds. Sesa Sterlite Adani Ports & SEZ Tata Consultancy Services Page Industries
Amount No. of MF invested (`cr) invested 480 414 4,769 141 411 4,658 6,129 142 6,248 4,883 1,091 1,680 588 4,338 488 109 61 213 29 69 204 213 64 212 183 130 140 50 183 28
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FUND RADAR
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