Journal of South Asian Disaster Studies 2011

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Director
Dr. O.P.Mishra
Head- Geological Disaster Division
&
Mriganka Ghatak
Specialist- Geological Disaster Division
SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi
Assistant Editor
Rajan Kumar
Editorial Assistant
Yashika Sharma
Assistant Editor
Sunanda Dey
Editor
Prof. Santosh Kumar
Journal of
South Asian Disaster Studies
Journal of the SAARC Disaster Management Centre
Volume 4 l Number 1 l June 2011
SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage
and retrieval system without permission from SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi.
ISSN: 0974 6463
Journal of South Asian Disaster Studies Journal is published two times a year and is distributed by
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Editor: Santosh Kumar, O.P. Mishra and M. Ghatak
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Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies II

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Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies
Editors Note v
Notes on Contributors vii
1. A Regional Approach to Risk Mitigation of Cultural Heritage: 1
A Case of Buxa Fort and its Environs
Chandrani Bandyopadhyay and Bhasker Neogi
2. Emergence of Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria in South Asia 19
with Special Reference to India
Neena Mishra
3. Climate Change and Disasters in India 27
R. K. Mall, R. Kumar and R. Bhatla
4. Past and Present Seismic Intensity Scenario of Guwahati City, 77
Assam, North East India
H. S. Mandal, A. K. Shukla, Mriganka Ghatak, Rajnish Ranjan and O. P. Mishra
5. Industrial Disasters and Labour Protection in India: 95
An Appraisal of Judicial And Legislative Action
Zafar Hussain and M. Afzal Wani
6. FLOODS in Pakistan 2010 (Lesson Learned and Way Forward) 107
with Special Reference to Agriculture Sector (A Success Story)
M. Ashfaq and Ehsanullah
Contents
Vol 4 No 1 June 2011 u III
Editors Note
T
he study of both natural and human-induced disasters has been witnessing evolv-
ing trends with changing times. The present issue of the Journal of South Asia
Disaster Studies bears a reection of this new trend, and contains some interesting
contributions.
The preservation of heritage sites against natural or human-induced disasters has not
received adequate attention often. In the rst paper of this issue, Bandyopadhyay and
Neogi address this largely unattended issue with specic reference to Buxa Fort, a heritage
site in West Bengal, India. Lying in a high risk seismic zone, this heritage structure is also
vulnerable to the risk from oods and landslides. The authors have attempted to trace a
link between heritage risk management and environmental sustainability without losing
sight of overall development of the area. To meet this objective, they have proposed a
holistic approach involving the professional agencies and the local communities.
The path breaking introduction of the antibiotics in the 1940s has been followed by
an antibiotic resistance due to overexposure. The number of antibiotic resistant patho-
gens has been on the rise and the South Asian region, with a history of bacterial infec-
tion-induced health problems, presents a specter of looming large scale epidemics unless
some focused interventions are undertaken. Mishra, in her paper, advocates for an in
depth investigation to understand the antibiotic resistance in South Asia and develop a
strategy to mitigate large scale health hazards.
The alarmingly growing population in the Indian cities is increasingly becoming vul-
nerable to adverse effects of climate change which are being further exacerbated due to
the layers of social, economic and gender inequalities in the country, thereby impeding
sustainable development and decrease the ability of the communities to bounce back. To
tide over this, Mall et al. propose the adaption of modern science and technology-based
methods for developing a robust Early Warning System and Vulnerability Assessment
integrating information from environmental, societal and resource parameters to evolve
a resilient society.
Even after more than a century, the 1897 Shillong Plateau earthquake remains a highly
studied natural disaster. The paper of Mandal et al. attempts to generate scenario intensi-
ty for this earthquake. They have applied attenuation relationship for estimation of PGA
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for the area with the use of Risk Assessment tools to Diagnose the Urban areas against
Seismic disaster (RADIUS). The study by the authors reveals that eight earthquakes near
the Oldham Fault are comparable with the Seismic Zone Factor for maximum magnitude
earthquake over the area.
One of the fallouts of rapidly expanding industrial growth in India has been in the
form of the increasing trend of industrial disasters. However, the legislations available in
the country are not adequate to cushion the workers in the industries from impending
disasters that often result from the hazardous working conditions. The paper of Hussain
and Wani provides a comprehensive background of the judicial and legislative history
for safeguarding against the industrial disasters. They have stressed upon the need for
a stronger legal framework for regulation of hazardous industries for ascertaining safe
working environments of the workers.
The last paper in this issue by Ashfaq and Ehsanullah presents the lessons learnt and
the way ahead with special reference to the agricultural sector in the backdrop of the
devastating oods in Pakistan in 2010. The paper describes the success story of effective
and well coordinated mechanism of distributing relief and rehabilitation packages in the
ood affected areas of the country.
The Journal of South Asia Disaster Studies has been receiving attention from the
disaster management professionals who are coming more in numbers to showcase their
research, investigations, analyses and other studies. It is more encouraging to observe
that the new areas and aspects of disaster management and studies are being focused
upon by them to make the exercise and the outcomes more objective and community
oriented. This trend has to be sustained and supported for emergence of a disaster re-
silient South Asia.
O.P. Mishra
M. Ghatak
Notes on Contributors
l A.K. Shukla, Earthquake Risk Evaluation Center, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
l Afzal Wani, University School of Law and Legal Studies, GGS IP University, Delhi
l Bhasker Neogi, Consultant Architect, Alternate Building Systems, SABS Architects & Planners
l Chandrani Bandyopadhyay, Assistant Professor, National Institute of Disaster Management (Ministry
of Home Affairs), New Delhi
l Ehsanullah, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
l H. S. Mandal, Earthquake Risk Evaluation Center, India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
l M. Ashfaq, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan
l M. Ghatak, Specialist, Geological Disaster Division, SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi
l Neena Mishra, Post Graduate Division of Microbiology, A.P.C College, New Barrackpore, Kolkata
l O.P. Mishra, Head, Geological Disaster Division, SAARC Disaster Management Centre, New Delhi
l R. Bhatla, Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi 221005
l R.K. Mall, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi
- 221005
l R. Kumar, SAARC Disaster Management Centre (SDMC), New Delhi
l Rajnish Ranjan, National Institute of Disaster Management, (Ministry of Home Affairs), New Delhi
l Zafar Hussain, Associate Professor, Institute of Law & Research, Faridabad
Vol 4 No 1 June 2011 u VII
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Abstract
India is a rich storehouse of tangible and intangible cultural heritage. The interface between
cultural heritage and disasters, both natural and human-induced, are evident around the world. In
addition to the risk from visible natural and human-induced disasters, considerable heritage is lost
to redundancy and apathy of people and governments. Heritage structures with regional significance
have to also cope with political implications and diplomatic implications. Notwithstanding these
challenges, cultural heritage structures need to be preserved from redundancy or natural disasters.
Therefore mitigation of disaster risk of cultural properties is an integral part of the risk reduction
process. In this paper, the authors have studied a historic site, nestled within a tiger reserve, near an
international border and attempted to find a link between heritage risk management, environmental
sustainability and overall development of the area. Buxa Fort is located in Jalpaiguri district of West
Bengal. The significance of this region lies in its position as a part of the traditional trade route
between Bengal, Central and Western Bhutan and onwards to Tibet. Originally built by Bhutanese
and later conquered by the British, the Buxa Fort was used as a detention camp for freedom fighters.
It lies in an area of proclaimed seismic risk. Risk from floods, landslides and slope failures exacerbate
the vulnerability of the structure. Buxa Fort and its environs are a unique combination of cultural
heritage, ecological wealth and amalgamation of ethnic cultures in an area of proclaimed hazard
vulnerability. The authors argue that any attempt of risk mitigation of Buxa Fort needs to address all
the issues raised holistically. For a holistic understanding of issues covering both India and Bhutan,
a regional approach is required. Along with professional agencies, the local community should be at
the forefront of risk sensitive development planning and implementation.
A Regional Approach to Risk
Mitigation of Cultural Heritage:
A Case of Buxa Fort and its Environs
Chandrani Bandyopadhyay and Bhasker Neogi
CHANDRANI BANDYOPADHYAY AND BHASKER NEOGI
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Introduction
The Indian sub-continent, as the cradle of one of the oldest civilizations in the world, is a
rich store-house of cultural resources, both tangible and intangible. The sub-continent is
also a disaster hot-spot, vulnerable to hazards of various types and magnitudes. Impact of
disasters on cultural heritage is evident in most high intensity disasters around the world.
In addition to the risk from visible natural and human-induced disasters, considerable
heritage is lost to redundancy and apathy of people. Social, economic, political and
technological changes may result in certain structures no longer being useful or relevant.
This change happens more rapidly if the structure is not viable to be put into tourism or
other commercial use.
In this paper, the authors have attempted to study an old fort, its risks from natural
disasters exacerbated by ecological and human factors. A mute reminder of a past
crucial to our history, the structure stands in an ecologically rich area, thereby creating
a dichotomy between heritage conservation and ecological concerns. The authors have
tried to nd a link between heritage risk management, environmental sustainability and
overall development of the area.

Historical Signicance of Buxa Fort
Buxa Fort or Buxaduar, is a part of the Western duars, a strip of submontane country
crisscrossed by lowland passes from the hills to the plains. Literally, the name duars
means door or a pass; likewise the entire stretch is served by eighteen such passes. Located
in the north-eastern corner of West Bengal bordering Bhutan the area has the distinction
of being home to a variety of ora, fauna and ethnic groups.
Buxa Fort is located in Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal at 26
o
4517.86 N and
89
o
3449.04

E (District Gazetteers, Jalpaiguri 1981). The signicance of this region lies in
its position as a part of the traditional trade route between Bengal, Central and Western
Bhutan and onwards to the Chumbi valley of Tibet, and was also connected to the ancient
Silk Route. This ourishing trade route facilitated trade between the plains of Bengal
and Tibet, encouraging the trade of musk, wool, hide, oranges to the plains and spices,
tobacco, silk to the hills beyond, through the ancient Bhutanese capital of Punakha. From
Punakha, a link road connected Coochbehar, which traversed through Buxa, making it a
strategically important location. Originally built by the Bhutanese as the fort of Pashakha,
it is said to have become Buxa over the years in local dialect. Other opinions derive the
name from Bakshishduar, as a reminder of the compensation paid to Bhutan following
the annexation of the Duars.
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A REGIONAL APPROACH TO RISK MITIGATION OF CULTURAL HERITAGE:
A CASE OF BUXA FORT AND ITS ENVIRONS
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Buxa Fort is situated on an escarpment located on the Indian side of the border
between Bhutan, in the Doars region of North Bengal. Geologically, the Buxa area has
signicant formations from the Archaean and Pre-Cambrian times. The Pre-Cambrian
series, named the Buxa series is most signicant, comprising slate, phyllite, quartzite,
banded hematite quartzite, dolomite and quartz-mica-graphite-schist. The quartzite is
best developed in the Buxa Duars area and to its west. Dolomite available in the Buxa
Series is the most important economic material in the district. It is mined mainly from
the strewn boulder in the river bed.
Chronology of Growth of Buxa Fort
Three signicant phases of growth of Buxa can be identied viz the pre-British era, British
Occupation and post-Independence years. In its earliest years, Buxa was signicant as
the entry point of a vital trade route from Bhutan to India as the most used entry point
to Bhutan and also as a communication link between two friendly states of Coochbehar
and Bhutan. The mutual cooperation between the two states was also manifested through
Figure 1: Location of Buxa Duar in West Bengal
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strategic alliances. In 1682, a small detachment of Bhutanese forces were deployed to
Coochbehar on the request of the king to ward off a Mughal expedition launched by
Aurangzeb.
The Early British Years began with the defeat of Bhutan and British capture of Buxa in
1774 after a erce battle at Dalimkote. The First Bhutan War came to an end with a treaty
between the East India Company and Bhutan whereby the entire Western Duars, from
Sankosh to Teesta, once under Coochbehar was ceded to Bhutan. British occupation of
Assam in 1826, led to annexation of Duars further leading to the Second Bhutan War. The
war ended with signing of the Treaty of Sinchula in 1865 with British regaining control
over Western Duars and provision of an annual compensation to Bhutan. Thereafter, a
detachment of the Bengal Native Infantry was stationed here.
The second phase of Buxa came after Captain Jones of the East India Company
captured Buxa Fort after a erce battle at Dalimkote. After a brief period of Bhutanese
occupation, Colonel Watson recaptured Buxa Fort for the Company on 7
th
December
1864. Thereafter, a detachment of the Bengal Native Infantry was stationed here leading
to construction of army barracks, posts and pickets around the fort. During the British
occupation, the most signicant of all the roles played by Buxa is that of a detention
camp during the Nationalist Movement. Repaired and restored in 1930, it was the rst of
the three detention camps in Bengal. Buxa became infamous for being the most rigorous
prison after the Cellular Jail. The natural inaccessibility and thick forests full of wild
animals facilitated the captivity conditions of Buxa. In its rst phase, Buxa Detention
Camp operated from 1930 to 1938. It was reopened in late 1941 to detain political
prisoners of the Quit India Movement.
Figure 2: Buxa Fort: WB (Left) (Right)
Photo courtesy Dept. of Archeology
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 5
After Independence, Buxa was used as a detention camp from 1949-51, when the
Communist Party of India was banned and many workers of the party were interned here.
Buxa was converted to a camp from 1959 1970 for the Tibetan refugees who escaped to
India through the eastern frontiers. Senior monks from monasteries and all prominent
sects were stationed at Buxaduar camp.
2.2 Buxa Remnants of a Bhutanese Dzong
The original structure was a two storied dzong (fortress) built by the Bhutanese, evidence
of which has almost disappeared. A dzong is fortress typical to the Himalayan and
trans Himalayan region and is inuenced by Chinese military architecture and Buddhist
religious architecture.
The rst dzong constructed by the Zhabdrung was at Simtokha (srin mordo kha), `the
demoness stone in the Thimphu valley in 1629, where it controlled the main east-west
trade route. A typical Dzong comprises of heavy stone masonry curtain walls surrounding
a single courtyard. The heavy masonry walls house the storage areas usually contained
in the lower stories, which are devoid of any fenestrations for security reasons. Living
accommodations are also provided for the garrison along the inside of the outer walls.
The central courtyard is usually at a higher level than the surrounding areas and usually
stone-agged. The main buildings, situated in the centre are also constructed in stone, or
in rammed clay blocks. They are usually covered with a heavy timber roof in hardwood
or bamboo, The roong is left open at the eaves for ventilation purposes. The roong
comprising of timber shingles are weighed down by the use of stones and traditionally
constructed without the use of nails. The reason for this is that the roof could be easily
dismantled, to prevent the risk of re during a siege. Dr. David Rennie writes that when
the British attacked the dzong of Dalimkot (about 45 kms. From Buxa) in1865 the men
in the fort were observed making hurried preparations for defense, by removing the roofs
and woodwork from the towers at the angles of the fort.

2.3 Buxa Fort Today
The fort is presently approachable from Rajabhatkhawa, about 20 Km from Alipurduar,
the nearest railhead. Thereon, the road winds through the forests till Santrabari, where
the motorable road ends and the remaining 5 Km is an arduous trek through densely
wooded hills, dry riverbeds and valleys, crossing various hamlets on the way.
The Buxa Fort is reached after crossing the village of Buxa. Intriguingly, the main
approach road to the village and the Fort runs through the bed of a stream. Apparently,
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the stream has changed its course due to a landslide in the upper reaches in the recent
years. The locals have used gabions to keep the stream in check. A mustering ground,
which also doubles as a playeld for locals, approximately 1000 1200 sq m overlooks
the fort.
A 3 m wide cobblestone road leads upto the fort through the glacis, which has long
disappeared under the heavy undergrowth. The road leads up through a hairpin bend
and goes up some steps leading to the nal ascent to the fort. The gateway, which is more
or less destroyed, is a simple trabeate structure with the original wooden doors missing.
No elaborate defence mechanisms like bastions, machicolations are in evidence today,
since the general inaccessibility of the area made the fort quite impregnable.
Figure 3: Dilapidated condition of the fort
The British made extensive changes to the old stone and lime mortar structure of the
fort and renovated later with few brick structures. The living quarters in the walls for the
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 7
soldiers were later converted into prison cells for the housing of interned freedom ghters
in the 1930s. Walls at two levels are still seen. A water storage tank and water systems are
also intact. The guides pass of the water storage tank as the remnants of a hanging gallows
for execution of prisoners to gullible visitors. All the buildings are without roofs, since they
were mostly constructed in timber and have not survived the ravages of time. Remnants
of arcuate constructions can still be seen, which were constructed by the British in all
probability, since the arch was not a popular component of the lexicon of the Bhutanese
builders. Some of the structures have been renovated in modern times, but without any
sensitivity to the original construction methodology. A recent memorial to the freedom
struggle executed in modern ceramic tiles, looks incongruous in the settings of a fort.

3. Nature & Man The Dichotomy Within
The Buxa area is ecologically one of the most signicant areas of West Bengal and also
one of the most fragile. Reserved forests and Sanctuaries, intersected by numerous rivers
and tributaries, with small patches of cultivated lands and villages nested within the hills
is the predominant character of the environs of Buxa. The forests can be broadly classed
as moist tropical, with sal (shorea robusta) and its associates the most economically
important component. The sal here is of the best quality in India.
Buxa Tiger Reserve
Buxa Fort lies within the Buxa Tiger Reserve. The Buxa Tiger Reserve is the largest dense
chunk of remaining forests in West Bengal. Set up in 1983, its area encompasses 760.87
sq km having a sanctuary area of 269 sq km and a National Park of 117.01 sq km of
pristine forests. It is the eastern most extension of the extremely bio-diverse North-East
India and a part of the fragile Terai Eco-System. The Phipsu Wildlife Sanctuary of
Bhutan is contiguous to North of BTR. Manas Tiger Reserve lies on east of BTR making
it the international corridor for elephant migration between India and Bhutan. Buxa
encompasses as many as eight forest types and a spectacular faunal variety with 390
species of birds, 73 species of mammals, 76 species of snakes and 5 species of amphibians
listed. No other Tiger Reserve, with the exception of Namdapha has such a rich diversity
of species. Indian Tiger, Asian Elephant, Leopard cat, Bengal orican, Regal python,
Chinese Pangolin, Hispid hare, Hog deer etc have been identied as endangered species.
Wild Dog was believed to be extinct but was spotted in 1998 in Tashigaon Block of this
Reserve. An ex-situ conservation breeding centre for endangered species of vultures is
functioning in Buxa.
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Figure 4: Buxa Tiger Reserve
The People of Buxa
Buxa forest area has 37 forest villages, of which 10 are in the sanctuary area itself.
The villages represent diverse ethnic groups, the Nepali community being the most
dominant, followed by the Rava community (Das, 2004). These areas have been known
for cultivation of oranges and ginger in the traditional method. The Reserve is fringed by
34 tea gardens and 46 revenue villages on the western and southern side.
Most people in the non-tea estate areas are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, by
traditional methods, resulting in one crop annually. The meagre income is supplemented
by animal husbandry, non-timber forest produce collection etc. The demarcation of the
reserve has resulted in signicant reduction in forest harvesting and livelihood options.
Earlier employment in Clear Felling Coupes (CFC) and articial regeneration operation,
boulder collection etc. was a major income source for villagers, but with the creation
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 9
of protected areas, the strategy of commercial forestry shifted to conservation forestry,
leading to ban on CFC resources and boulder removal. While this has had a major impact
on the hazard scenario of the area, the livelihood patterns have also undergone major
changes.
The India Eco Development Project being implemented in the Buxa Tiger Reserve has
a component of micro-plan for the villages, and has facilitated the formation of women
led Self Help Groups (SHGs) in these villages. The SHGs, with the encouragement and
facilitation of local NGOs have taken up the task of maintenance of Buxa Fort. They
charge a nominal fee from the visitors and use this fund for cleaning and clearing the fort
complex of undergrowth and garbage. This is
a welcome step for community ownership of a
heritage site.
Figure 5: Buxaduar Village and its people
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Natural Hazard Vulnerability
Buxa lies in an area of proclaimed
seismic risk, in Zone V of the
earthquake hazard zonation. The
1897 Shillong earthquake caused
the maximum damage to the area
resulting in change of course of
many rivers. The Main Boundary
Fault in the Siwaliks and smaller
active faults in the Siliguri area
manifest a high seismic risk.
Seismic movements of the area
loosen the hill sides, causing rock
slides and further increasing the silt deposition of the river. Landslides which cause a
large volume of boulders to obstruct mountain streams invariably result in oods during
or after the monsoon season. The severe landslides in the scarp-face of the Buxa hill each
year aggravate the ood situation and vice versa.
River bank erosion is a severe problem in the entire Duars region. The huge bed-load
carried by the rivers results in excess volume of water, increased friction and erosion of
banks, frequent ooding and changing course of rivers.

Floods
The Duars area is characterized by a network of rivers and their tributaries debouching
into the plains from the hills. The river Tista has been the most ood prone with 1892,
1902, 1906, 1922-23, 1948, 1950, 1954, 1968 and 1987 recorded as heavy ood years.
The ood event in 1954 is signicant in the context of Buxa because massive landslides
occurred in the sub-Himalayan slopes and all river basins were affected by rapid rise of
river bed and bank erosion.
However, a severe ood in August 1993 is mentioned time and again by the local
residents as having triggered the maximum damage to the Buxa area. Reportedly, the
ood caused about 200 deaths and huge loss of cattle and infrastructure in Jalpaiguri and
Coochbehar. The 1993 oods caused a change in the course of Buxajhora, a tributary of
River Dima. The original course of this stream ran behind the fort, but it now ows through
the base of the scarp, constantly cutting into the base, resulting in severe landslides after
monsoons. With the weakening of the slope, the entire structure is at risk of collapse.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 11
Dichotomy of Development
Buxa Fort and environs form a distinct feature of our national history and culture. It
represents a unique heritage that presided over the trade and cultural relations between
India, Bhutan and Tibet and later served at a crucial juncture of the Indian nationalist
struggle. Today, it is at risk of total devastation and decay from natural as well as human
interference. In the context of its role in shaping the history, geography and culture of
the area, the conservation and development of Buxa is important. However, it is also
important that disaster safe conservation takes into account the issues of environment,
economy and society. Risk mitigation of the cultural heritage therefore needs to be seen
as an interface between conservation, ecodevelopment and natural hazard mitigation.
All these issues, if addressed holistically will facilitate the development of the area, but
addressed in isolation, will only aggravate the current situation.
Issues of Conservation
Conservation of the site is one of the primary requirements as the complex is crumbling
very rapidly. In a span of four years, a large part of the walls and ramparts have broken and
disintegrated, precincts covered with undergrowth and walls overgrown with roots and
shrubs. High rainfall and relative humidity hastens the process of decay. The conservation
concerns can be listed as:
i) Inaccessibility and Maintenance Issues: The site has a single access through a
broken narrow track, running though stream beds. This hinders regular inspection
and maintenance. Neither the Archaeological nor Forest Department has any staff
stationed at the site. During monsoons, the trek becomes difcult and dangerous due
to sudden landslips and ash oods.
ii) Loss of exhibits: A museum commemorating Buxas role in the freedom struggle
was established primarily consisting of personal belongings, documents and
correspondences of the freedom ghters. However, the excessive humidity took a toll
on these exhibits, leading to damage of some important documents. As a result, the
museum was closed down.
iii) Inadequate heritage appreciation: A cultural property is an inheritance of the past
and reects its own characteristics in terms of location, planning, construction and
usage of space. Interventions at a later stage should appreciate, respect and maintain
the inherent characteristics of the heritage. However, in many occasions, cultural
properties suffer from modern interventions totally ill suited to the structure, or
regarded as old and replaced with modern structures (Jigyasu, 2006). Buxa Fort bears
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a similar intervention in the form of a commemorative structure in the 50th Year
of Indian Independence. In 1997, a memorial was erected by PWD. The structure in
black and white ceramic tiles is totally alien and insensitive to the original structure
and environs of the historical fort. Not only does this memorial hamper the aesthetic
beauty of the environs but also stands testimony to a huge loss to the heritage
characteristics.
iv) Vandalism & Theft: The local population has played its own role in the decay of
the fort. Dependent on subsistence agriculture as primary livelihood and faced with
accessibility problems the local population has made use of all the utility items including
construction materials for their own use. The tourists and visitors have added to the
woes of the conservationists by littering and marking the place with grafti.
The Eco-Development Concern
Located in a tiger reserve, commercial development of the region is restricted according
to norms applicable to a sanctuary area. A dichotomy between development and
environmental concerns persists in Buxa.
The Development Aspect
i) Tourism: Tourism has very good potential in the area, if promoted together with the
attraction of the ora and fauna, hills and caves in the Jainti area. The North Bengal
Development Council, chaired by the Chief Minister of West Bengal had proposed
development of Buxa Fort for tourism purposes. It had proposed rebuilding of the road
to the Fort, a light and sound show on the historical importance and basic amenities
for tourists. The Forest Department however, is wary of the impact of development
and increased vehicular and tourist trafc on the animals of the Reserve Forest.
ii) Mining: Dolomite mining and extraction of boulders was completely stopped by a
Supreme Court order for over 12 years. Extraction of boulders from river beds has been
resumed recently near Santrabari. The ban on boulder extraction from river beds had
raised the river beds, to levels higher than the adjoining road, thus increasing risks of
oods and river bank erosion. The resumption of extraction, on a restricted scale is
probably a favourable initiative.
iii) Traditional agriculture: Traditionally, this area has been known for commercial
crops like ginger, oranges and cardamom. Santrabari (from santra = oranges) gets its
name from oranges grown here. Grown on a subsistence basis, commercial viability
has not been explored. Declaration of sanctuary and tiger reserve also precludes any
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 13
commercial agriculture.
Environmental Concerns
i) Impact on Flora and Fauna: Any developmental initiative will affect the ora and
fauna of this area, which are also assets of the nation. Forest ofcials and local people
feel that resumption of boulder extraction and movement of heavy vehicles (trucks)
for collection within the forest area has signicantly reduced animal sightings, which
is not conducive for eco-tourism.
ii) Road Construction and Blasting: While recent road construction on the Santrabari
Rajabhatkhawa stretch is benecial to the vehicular trafc, it has signicantly
reduced animal sightings on this stretch and beyond. In addition, the blasting triggers
landslides and landslips in already unstable slopes. Being an ecologically fragile area,
apprehension about any such activity persists. It is also appropriate that the ecological
concerns are addressed before development, given the bio-diversity of the area.
Natural Hazard Mitigation
The Buxaduar and its environs are extremely vulnerable to natural hazards. As mentioned
earlier, the area is prone to earthquakes, landslides, landslips, ashoods and bank erosion.
The major issues can be briey identied as:
i) Changing course of rivers and streams: The
entire stretch of Eastern Himalayas and its
foothills are naturally vulnerable to changes
in the courses of rivers. Being in a zone of
maximum seismicity (Zone V), frequent
seismic upheavals cause landslides, oods
and river course disruptions. Buxaduar is
no exception, with the Dima River and its
tributaries shifting courses frequently. The
present course of Buxajhora shifted only
after the 1993 ood and is presently cutting
into the base of the table-top mountain.
ii) Landslides and Landslips: Large and small
landslips are seen on the entire stretch of the
route. The largest slide is perhaps seen on the
western scarp face of the hill scarp. The old
slide gets reactivated every year; as a result Figure 7: Recent Landslide
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the ramparts of the fort are crumbling at a very fast rate. The entire fort is at the risk
of destruction due to landslides within the next decade.
iii) River Bank Erosion: River bank erosion due to the huge bed-load is a perennial
problem in the area. Loss of land and relocation of villages has become a common
feature in the region. Protection works to arrest bank erosion are evident throughout
the stretch, even in Buxaduar village, though on a longer-term perspective, it might
not be a sufcient measure.
Figure 8: Flood Protection Works in Buxa Village

Risk Sensitive Development: A Holistic Approach for Regional Development
The Kyoto Declaration 2005 declares that cultural heritage is a priceless and non-renewable
asset and it is our duty to raise awareness and undertake all necessary measures for protection
of cultural heritage from disasters. The heritage of Buxa, inextricably linked with both
Bhutan and India, therefore merits serious thought for risk sensitive conservation from both
countries. The fort and its environs are a unique combination of cultural heritage, ecological
wealth and amalgamation of ethnic cultures in an area of proclaimed hazard vulnerability. It
is not only the heritage that is at risk, but also the society, ethnic cultures and environment.
Any attempt of risk mitigation of Buxa Fort needs to address all the issues raised holistically.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 15
Roads and infrastructure are development priorities that also pose inevitable threats to bio-
diversity and to the animal movement corridor outcomes in particular. Road networks and
tourist inow would enable easier access to the area but would also open the site to commercial
development, which would hamper the ecology of the site. While dolomite extraction from
the riverbed has environmental implications, it keeps the river bed clear during heavy rains
in the catchment and mitigates ood risk to some extent. This inherent dichotomy needs to
be addressed through judicious planning, in terms of disaster risk mitigation, heritage and
ecological conservation and safe development of the area. The restoration and conservation
plan for the site should incorporate inputs from disaster management professionals,
environmentalists and conservation architects. This would include a comprehensive risk
assessment of the site and adjoining areas to nalize a comprehensive, action-oriented plan
for reducing risks to the structures, people and environment. The heritage signicance of the
area goes far beyond the fort, to include the unique natural environment. In the light of the
cultural and locational contiguity between Buxa area and Bhutan, heritage conservation and
risk-sensitive development planning requires a regional perspective. As most of the rivers
owing through Buxa area originate in the Bhutan hills, a large part of their bed-load is
brought in from the higher reaches, causing oods and landslides, a comprehensive strategy
for risk reduction and conservation should have an India-Bhutan perspective
Figure 9: Protection to the road at the lower level, river bed at a higher level
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Community participation is the key to heritage conservation and maintenance.
Along with professional agencies, the local community should be at the forefront of risk
sensitive development planning and implementation. Some action has been initiated
by local SHGs, but needs to be buttressed through incentives and economic benets to
the local inhabitants. Community based interventions should be encouraged for holistic
development of the area.
A Framework for Heritage Risk Reduction
The ancient and rich cultural history of the Indian subcontinent has resulted in a
varied and diverse cultural heritage, which has resulted in a built heritage of colossal
proportions. A developing country, under constant pressure of a fast growing population
and a paucity of funds, does not have the capacity of to conserve this heritage in its
entirety, especially those situated in remote areas. The constant pressure of development
and lack of awareness leads to compromises on heritage conservation. Under these
circumstances, crucial conservation decisions are often based on political judgment,
Historical Period Ancient structures get more weightage
Religious / Mass
sentiments
Points awarded to buildings which are important in religious and emotional
psyche of the local populace
Architectural Style Rarer architectural styles get more importance along with amalgamations of
different styles
Ecological
Characteristics
Attrition rates for buildings are more in some climatic zones as opposed to
zones with less extreme weather conditions
Climate change
susceptibility
Ancient structures designed for a particular climate may not adapt very well to
rapidly changing climates
Urban Impact Heritage structures in the path of a rapidly expanding urban zone are at a
major risk
Economic Impact Mining, tree logging activities can have disastrous impact on a heritage zone
Tourism Impact Unmonitored and uncontrolled tourism can have an adverse impact on
structures
Political Impact Some heritage zones have major importance / non-importance in the political
psyche of pressure groups or administrative zones
War / Conflict zone Heritage structures situated in war or insurgency affected zones are among the
most vulnerable group
Disaster Vulnerability Sites located in seismically active zones, flood plains, coastal areas susceptible
to hurricanes / tsunamis are more vulnerable
Construction
Methodology
Some construction techniques are more susceptible to attrition like timber,
adobe structures. Also arcuate structures are more vulnerable to earthquakes as
opposed to trabeate ones.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 17
cultural and religious empathy or media hype. The need of the hour is to develop a
methodology to ascertain and assist in this difcult and often painful decision- making
process. The Buxa fort is a unique example of amalgamation of Bhutanese and European
styles of defensive architecture which has been lost because the required intervention did
not happen at the right time. In this context this decision support methodology needs
to be in place at the earliest. This methodology ideally should consist of a matrix which
imparts weightage to the signicant aspects or characteristics of a built form or site.
An indicative list of elements that can be considered for preparing a heritage matrix is
proposed in the following table. The list is merely indicative and by no means exhaustive
and could be detailed out to develop a comprehensive assessment format.
A comprehensive risk reduction process needs to be inclusive and participatory,
involving government agencies, local communities and civil society. Conservation
of ecological and archaeological heritage should be integrated with development
priorities of the local area. Safe development practices should include within its ambit,
comprehensive disaster risk assessment and mitigation, conservation of heritage elements,
optimal resource utilization and participation of the local community. Only then can the
dichotomy between disaster risk mitigation and development be resolved to ensure the
overall development of the entire community. A holistic effort towards safe development
in this richly endowed, tectonically fragile, breathtakingly beautiful area should therefore
have a regional perspective rather than national. Both India and Bhutan should partner
in this process for a resilient region.
Note: The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and assistance provided by the officials of
the Dept of Archaeology, West Bengal, Asiatic Society Kolkata, officials of the Forest Department in
Alipurduar, Rajabhatkhawa, tourist guides and residents of villages in and around Buxaduar.
Bibliography
Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council (2006): Vulnerability Atlas of India, First
Revision, BMTPC, Ministry of Housing & Poverty Alleviation, Govt of India.
Das, Bidhan Kanti (2005): Role of NTFPs among Forest Villagers in a Protected Area of West Bengal
in Journal of Human Ecology Vol 18, No 2, October 2005, KR Enterprises, New Delhi ISSN 0970
9274
Das, SC (1999): Management Plan for Buxa Tiger Reserve (1999 2009), Dept of Forests, Govt. of
West Bengal
Kyoto Declaration 2005 on Protection of Cultural Properties, Historic Areas and their Settings from
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Loss in Disasters (adopted at the Kyoto International Symposium 2005 Towards the Protection
of Cultural Properties and Historic Urban Areas from Disaster held at the Kyoto Kaikan on 16
January 2005)
http://www.international.icomos.org/xian2005/kyoto-declaration.pdf
Meyer, W.S, Burn, R, Cotton, J.S., Risley, Sir H.H. (ed.): Imperial Gazetteer of India (1908): Vol X, XI,
published under the authority of His Majestys secretary of state for India in council. Oxford,
Clarendon Press, 1908-1931
Project Tiger, Ministry of Environment & Forests, Govt of India: Intensive Project Performance
Review India Eco-Development Project, Phase III, June 2004.
http://projecttiger.nic.in/pdf/executive_summary.pdf
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 19
Abstract
The antibiotic era started in the 1940s and changed the prole of infectious disease and human
demography. With the invention of antibiotics, the elimination of major cause of human morbidity
appeared possible. Today, antimicrobial agents are among the most commonly used and misused
of all drugs. The inevitable consequence of the widespread use of antimicrobial agents has been
the emergence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens, fueling an ever-increasing need for new drugs.
South Asia region is found to have chronic health related problems of bacterial infections that
may have history of turning the situation into a case of epidemics in the region that caused a
huge loss of lives in different parts of South Asia. In this study, a thorough investigation is made
to understand the scenario of antibiotic resistant bacteria of the region with special reference to
India to suggest plausible ways of mitigating such severe health hazards of the region.
Recently, with diagnosis of Totally Drug Resistant Tuberculosis (TRD-TB) bacilli in Mumbai,
India, the situation is quite grim. Steadily, increasing antibiotic resistance and decreasing
numbers of newer antibiotics appear to point to a post-antibiotic period during which treatment
of infections would become increasingly difcult. The factors that determine the high antibiotic
resistance rates in India at present have to be identied and serious measures have to be taken
to control this.
Introduction
Antibiotics are antibacterial substances produced by various species of microorganisms
(bacteria, fungi, and actinomycetes) that suppress the growth of other microorganisms.
Emergence of Antibiotic Resistant
Bacteria in South Asia
with Special Reference to India
Neena Mishra
NEENA MISHRA
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Common usage often extends the term antibiotics to include synthetic antimicrobial
agents, such as sulfonamides and quinolones. Antibiotics differ markedly in physical,
chemical, and pharmacological properties, in antimicrobial spectra, and in mechanisms
of action. Antimicrobial agents are classied based on chemical structure and proposed
mechanism of action:
(1) Agents that inhibit synthesis of bacterial cell walls, including the-lactam class (e.g.,
penicillins, cephalosporins, and carbapenems) and dissimilar agents such as cycloserine,
vancomycin, and bacitracin
(2) Agents that act directly on the cell membrane of the microorganism, increasing
permeability and leading to leakage of intracellular compounds including detergents,
such as polymyxin; polyene antifungal agents (e.g., nystatin and amphotericin B) which bind
to cell-wall sterols; and the lipopeptide daptomycin (Carpenter and Chambers, 2004)
(3) Agents that disrupt function of 30S or 50S ribosomal subunits to reversibly inhibit
protein synthesis, which generally are bacteriostatic (e.g., chloramphenicol, the
tetracyclines, erythromycin, clindamycin, streptogramins, and linezolid)
(4) Agents that bind to the 30S ribosomal subunit and alter protein synthesis, which
generally are bactericidal (e.g., the aminoglycosides)
(5) Agents that affect bacterial nucleic acid metabolism, such as the rifamycins (e.g.,
rifampin and rifabutin), which inhibit RNA polymerase, and the quinolones, which
inhibit topoisomerases
(6) The antimetabolites, including trimethoprim and the sulfonamides, which block
essential enzymes of folate metabolism.
There are several classes of antiviral agents, including:
(1) nucleic acid analogs, such as acyclovir or ganciclovir, which selectively inhibit viral DNA
polymerase, and zidovudine or lamivudine, which inhibit HIV reverse transcriptase.
(2) non-nucleoside HIV reverse transcriptase inhibitors, such as nevirapine or efavirenz.
(3) inhibitors of other essential viral enzymes, e.g., inhibitors of HIV protease or inuenza
neuraminidase.
(4) fusion inhibitors such as enfuvirtide. Additional categories likely will emerge as
more complex mechanisms are elucidated. The precise mechanism of action of some
antimicrobial agents still is unknown.
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EMERGENCE OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT BACTERIA IN SOUTH ASIA
WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 21
Antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens
The prokaryotic cell is versatile and capable of adapting to the introduction of antibiotics
into the environment. The inherent genetic variation ensures a fair amount of
heterogeneity that ensures survivors in antibiotic charged environments. In an antibiotic
charged environment, a selection pressure builds up favouring the resistant organisms.
This survival of the ttest principle enunciated by Charles Darwin (1859) results in
a steady rise in MICs. Increasing mobility of modern society, demographic changes,
deteriorating hygiene and institutional opportunities, for example, day care centres, old
age homes, hospices etc., would ensure a steady supply of resistant clones of human
pathogens. Based on these constraints, South Asia has become a hotspot for severe and
several types of bacterial diseases because of rapid uncontrollable growth of population,
malnutrition and unhygienic environment of living of people in most of South Asian
countries. The metro cities of South Asia are found to be more vulnerable to such type
of bacterial diseases which outweigh antibiotic remedial measures so far available in the
world.
Gene events that cause sensitive bacteria to change could be intrinsic or extrinsic.
Intrinsic mechanisms are point mutations and gene amplications, whereas horizontal
transfer of resistance genes between bacteria within and across species by transposons,
integrons or plasmids are extrinsic mechanisms; the resultant gene pool responds to the
introduction of novel antibiotics by generating resistance determinants which are freely
exchanged (Livermore, 2004). Once this has happened, restriction of the use of antibiotic
would not result in decrease of resistance.
Genetic changes reect phenotypic alleles, and enable the bacteria to deal with the
antibiotic. The recent studies suggest following mechanisms involved in the said processes:
l Antibiotic inactivating enzymes e.g. -lactamases, aminoglycoside modifying enzymes,
chloramphenicol acetyl transferase, etc.
l Impaired uptake of antibiotics which can be natural due to cell envelope characteristics. In
the case of acquired resistance changes in porins may interfere with antibiotic transport.
l Drug efux may be the operative mechanism in some cases. Mutations result in over
expressions in some cases.
l Modication of the target resulting in less avid binding of the antibiotic is the
mechanism seen commonly in -lactam resistance in gram positive organisms e.g.
Streptococcus pneumoniae and S. aureus (Davies, 1994; Spratt, 1994). An extreme
example due to ribosomal modication that makes streptomycin resistant organisms
use the antibiotic as a growth factor.
NEENA MISHRA
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l Development of an alternate metabolic pathway would allow the bacteria to grow in
the presence of the antibiotic. This mechanism is seen in glycopeptide, aminoglycoside,
macrolide, sulpha/trimethoprim resistance amongst others.
South Asian vis-a-vis Indian Scenario
As mentioned above, most cities and towns of South Asia region are associated with
non-availability of clean and hygienic drinking water sources, lack of awareness of
sanitation, eating substandard and unhygienic food, poor living conditions and lack
of sufcient funds to get suitable preventive health hazard measures (SDMC, 2010).
India has improved signicantly in the eld of medical technology in recent years,
but still a long way to go to deal with the bacterial menace in a wide-scale for most of
cities of urban areas besides its huge rural blocks. Biological conditions of mutating
organism with increase of pathogenic conditions coupled with ecological factors are
prime concern of controlling and preventing the occurrence of epidemics in South Asia,
including India.
In India, there is a little control on the use of antibiotics. Community awareness on the
issues involved in antibiotic therapy is poor. Primitive infection controls in hospitals and
weak or decient sanitation are the conditions suited for transmission and acquisition
of antibiotic resistance. In the absence of a Central Monitoring Agency (CMA), the
national scene in India with regard to antimicrobial resistance is not known. The high
rate of mortality due to Lower Respiratory Tract Infection (LRTI) is now the leading cause
in India. The most important pathogen causing bronchopneumonia is Streptococcus
pneumoniae. Antibacterial resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae has now become a global
phenomenon. Vibrio cholerae has acquired resistance to a number of antimicrobials.
The resistance spectrum varies in different locales. This makes it necessary to know the
local pattern if antimicrobials are to be used. Thus, in the area around Delhi, extensive
resistance to furazolidone, cotrimoxazole and nalidixic acid was noted while tetracycline
remained effective (Sharma et al., 2007). On the other hand in Bangladesh tetracycline
resistance was also seen frequently (Saha et al., 2006). Coliforms have changed their
susceptibility patterns extensively. Coliform: -lactam resistance is widespread due to
vertical as well as horizontally acquired resistance factors. All the known generation of-
lactamases is actively circulating.
The worldwide emergence of Haemophilus and gonococci that produce -lactamase
is a major therapeutic problem. Methicillin-resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus are
endemic in hospitals and are isolated increasingly from community-acquired infections
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 23
(Naimi et al., 2003; Vandenesch et al., 2003). Multiple-drug-resistant strains of S. aureus
with intermediate susceptibility to antibiotics and high-level resistance to vancomycin
have been reported (Hiramatsu et al., 1997; Smith et al., 1999; Weigel et al., 2003).
There now are strains of enterococci, Pseudomonas, and Enterobacter that are resistant
to all available antibiotics. Epidemics of multiple-drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium
tuberculosis have been reported. Diagnosis of totally drug resistance tuberculosis has been
reported in Mumbai in 2011.
Plasmodium falciparum has become resistant to chloroquin and other anti-malarials
successively. Only the recently introduced artemesinine derived drugs are uniformly
effective (Mohanty et al., 2006). P. vivax remained sensitive to anti-malarials for a long
time. However, reports of emerging resistance have been made (Murphy et al., 1993). This
highlights the extensive problem of antimicrobial resistance encountered in India. It also
emphasises the need for systematic programmes to address the problem and evolve an
antibiotic conservation practice, particularly, for the killer diseases like tuberculosis, Kala
azar, malaria, etc.
Control of resistance of antimicrobial agents
In essence, all strategies aim at optimising the antibiotic stress in the environment,
decrease unintended interaction between antibiotics and pathogens, restrict the spread
of resistant organisms and treat infections with the minimum amount of antibiotic
necessary to affect cure. Towards this end, a number of countries have evolved national
programmes that tackle the complex issue. The common methods being focused on are
(Carbon et al., 2002):
l Surveillance of antibiotic use and resistance rates
l Optimising antibiotic use with treatment guidelines
l Education of professionals and the public
l Prevention with infection control measures and immunisation
l Industry involvement, nancial resource mobilisation and drug development
l Regulatory issues with central prescribing restrictions and advertising restrictions
l Audit with evaluation of interventions, audit of compliance and physician feedback.
l International cooperation
It is pertinent to note that European Commission (EC) and World Health Organization
(WHO) have enumerated strategic plans as follows (World Health Organization, 2002):
l Public and professional education towards rational use of antimicrobials
NEENA MISHRA
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l Coordination of surveillance of antibiotic resistance and antibiotic use in human and
animal health sectors
l Rened regulation of antibiotic registration for use in both sectors
l Development and evaluation of improved diagnostic methods. Promotion and
evaluation of medical and veterinary guidelines
l Restriction of antibiotic use as growth promoters in good animals
l Promotion of infection control practice in health care institutions
l Development of novel antimicrobial drugs and vaccines
l Closer international cooperation
Conclusions and Recommendations
The cause, which facilitates the processes of bacterial infections in South Asia, need to
be controlled as well as addressed by both science and society. In order to improve the
poor hygienic conditions of the Indians, sufcient awareness programmes on affectivity
of medicines and timely treatment of patients need to be propagated from top level
of Government machinery to the grass-root level of the society. The objective will be
successful if a common infection like a cold is precisely diagnosed and treated with the
right antibiotic for the shortest time to ensure eradication of the bacterial infection when
it occurs. We have a long way to go before we achieve this seemingly simple objective
even in industrialised afuent countries. In India, as in other developing countries, we
have not taken the initial steps. Antimicrobial resistance is a major emerging infection
and needs to be tackled by coordinated efforts by involving every stakeholder of the
society and science.
Bibliography
Anonymous (2001) The Choice of Antibacterial Drugs. Med. Lett. Drugs, Ther., 43: 69-78.
Anonymous (2002a) Guideline for Hand Hygiene in Healthcare Settings: Recommendations of the
Healthcare Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee, MMWR 51: RR-16.
Anonymous (2002b) Guideline for the Prevention of Intravascular Catheter-related Infections,
MMWR 51: RR-10.
Carbon, C., Cars, O. and Christiansenle (2002) Moving from Recommendation to Implementation
and Audit, Part I; Current Recommendations and Programs: A Critical Commentary, Clin.
Microbiol. Infect. (Suppl. 2) 8: 92-106.
Carpenter, C.F. and Chambers, H.F. (2004) Daptomycin: Another Novel Agent for Treating
Infections due to Drug-Resistant Gram-positive Pathogens, Clin. Infect. Dis. 38: 994-1000.
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Davies, J. (1994) Inactivation of Antibiotics and the Dissemination of Resistance Genes, Science
264: 375-382. [PMID: 8153624]
Hiramatsu, K., Hanaki, H., Ino, T. et al. (1997) Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: Clinical
Strain with Reduced Vancomycin Susceptibility, J. Antimicrob. Chemother. 40: 135-136.
[PMID: 9249217]
Li, X.Z. and Nikaido, H. (2004) Efux-mediated Drug Resistance in Bacteria, Drugs, 64:159-204.
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Livermore, D. (2004) Can Better Prescribing Turn the Tide of Resistance, Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 2:
73-78.
Mohanty, S., Patel, D.K., Pati, S.S., and Mishra, S.K. (2006) Adjuvant Therapy in Cerebral Malaria;
Indian J. Med. Res. 124: 245260.
Murphy, G.S., Basrilt, Purnomo, Anderson, E.M., Bangs, M.J. and Mount, D.L. et al. (1993) Vivax
Malaria Resistant to Treatment and Prophylaxis with Chloroquine, Lancet 341: 96100.
Murray, B.E., (1992) Lactamase-producing Enterococci, Antimicrob. Agents Chemother. 36:
2355-2359. [PMID: 1489177]
Murray, B.E. (2000) Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcal Infections, New Engl. J. Med. 342: 710-
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Naimi, T.S., LeDell, K.H., Como-Sabetti, K. et al. (2003) Comparison of Community- and Healthcare
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South Asia Disaster Report (2010) SDMC, New Delhi.
Smith, T.L., Pearson, M.L., Wilcox, K.R. et al. (1999) Emergence of Vancomycin Resistance in
Staphylococcus aureus, Glycopeptide-Intermediate Staphylococcus aureus Working Group, New
Engl. J. Med. 340:493-501. [PMID: 10021469]
Spratt, B.G. (1994) Resistance to antibiotics mediated by target alterations. Science, 264: 388-393.
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Vandenesch, F., Naimi, T., Enright, M.C. et al. (2003) Community-acquired Methicillin-resistant
Staphylococcus aureus carrying Panton-Valentine Leukocidin Genes: Worldwide Emergence,
Emerg. Infect. Dis. 9: 978-984. [PMID: 12967497]
Weigel, L.M., Clewell, D.B., Gill, S.R. et al. (2003) Genetic Analysis of a High-level Vancomycin-
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World Health Organization (2002) Fact Sheet No. 194, Antimicrobial Resistance. http://www.who.
int/mediacentre/factsheets/FS194/en/print.html (Accessed on May 06, 2008).
Abstract
Climate change is evident from the observations of increase in global average air and ocean
temperatures, precipitation and extreme rainfall, widespread melting of snow and ice, storms/
storm surges/coastal ooding and rising global mean sea level, as recorded in the Fourth
Assessment Report of IPCC. In future, Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and
intensity of current extreme weather/hydro-meteorological events, greater monsoon variability and
also the emergence of new disaster, that is, sea level rise and new vulnerabilities with differential
spatial and socio-economic impacts on communities. This unprecedented increase is expected to
have severe impact on the hydrological cycle, water resource (drought, ood, drinking water, forest
and ecosystems, sea level/coastal area/losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves), food security,
health and other related areas.
The impact would be particularly disasters for developing countries, including India and
further degrade the resilience of poor, vulnerable communities, which make up between one
quarter and one half of the population of most Indian cities. Low level technology development
in the villages together with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability
and sufferings of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor shing, farming and landless
labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly
limited. These, in turn, impede sustainable development widely undertaken in accordance with
the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Under these circumstances, the largely modern
science and technology-based sophisticated early warning systems are unlikely to be of help to
their fullest potential. The Super Cyclone in 1999, Drought in 2002-09, Tsunami in 2004,
Heat and cold wave and ood/ash ood in recent years in rural and urban areas are a wake-
up call from technological, social and economic points of view. This brings out the urgent
need to address sustainable alternate livelihoods to enhance resilience. In these circumstances,
vulnerability assessment is a powerful tool in the examination of societal well-being in the face of
Climate Change and
Disasters in India
R K Mall, R Kumar and R Bhatla

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 27
R K MALL, R KUMAR AND R BHATLA
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climatic change for better management which must integrate knowledge about the environment
(climate, ecosystems, water, associated pollution and change) with knowledge about humans
and their activities (agriculture/forestry/shing, resource management, political governance,
energy use, culture) to determine a holistic picture of how sensitive particular places are and how
resilient to the kinds of changes that might be associated with climate change.
Introduction
A natural disaster is an event of nature, which causes disruption to the normal life
of the people and causes damage to the crops, assets and lives. It manifests itself as an
interruption in the supply of food. Every aspect of nature is subject to seasonal, annual
and sudden uctuations. These may prove to be disastrous to people because the timing,
frequency and magnitude of occurrence are mostly unpredictable. In such situations, the
social and economic coping mechanisms available are inadequate to restore normalcy.
Most of the natural disasters create problem in short notice. Asia is the most disaster-prone
region of the world. Statistics shows that 38 per cent of the worlds disasters between
1975 and 2006 occurred in Asia. 57 per cent of total casualty in past 31 years belongs to
Asia (ADRC Data Book, 2006). There has been growing awareness and mobilization over
recent years regarding the problem of natural disasters on the part of many of the actors
concerned: scientists, policy makers, NGOs, and states. Climate change, a phenomenon
now acknowledged by almost the entire scientic community, is a key factor in the
increase in hydro meteorological disasters, that is, extreme weather events. Although no
region of the world is completely spared by this type of disaster, the poorest countries
are by far the most vulnerable due to their lack of appropriate resources. India is one of
the more vulnerable and risk-prone countries in the world (IFRC, 2005). The disasters
in terms of extreme weather events that cause widespread damage and disruption in
India are droughts, oods, cyclones, earthquakes, storms/storm surges/ coastal ooding,
extreme temperature, landslides, and avalanches etc (High Power Committee, 2002;
Brenkert and Malone, 2005; Attwood, 2005; Mall et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007; Rao et al.,
2007; Prabhakar and Shaw, 2008). These vagaries have left behind death and destruction
with huge impact on the developing economy of the countryslowing the rate of high
economic growth rates.
Climate change is evident from the observations of increase in global average air and
ocean temperatures, precipitation and extreme rainfall, widespread melting of snow and
ice, storms/storm surges/coastal ooding and rising global mean sea level, as recorded in
the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank
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Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 29
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTERS IN INDIA
among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
(since 1850). The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]C is larger than
the corresponding trend of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]C (1901-2000) given in the Third Assessment
Report (TAR). The linear warming trend over the 50 years 1956-2005 (0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]C
per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100 years 1906-2005. Global average sea level rose
at an average rate of 1.8 (1.3 to 2.3]) mm per year over 1961 to 2003 and at an average
rate of about 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm per year from 1993 to 2003. There is observational
evidence of an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since
about 1970, and suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other
regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Observed decreases in snow and ice
extent are also consistent with warming. Trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed
in precipitation amount in many large regions. Over this period, precipitation increased
signicantly in eastern, northern and northern -central whereas precipitation declined
in the Sahel, the Mediterranean and parts of southern Asia. Globally, the area affected by
drought has increased since the 1970s (IPCC, 2008).
In the 21st century, according to Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC during next two
decades a warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected for a range of SRES emission
scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all Green House Gases (GHGs) and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per decade
would be expected. Afterwards, temperature projections increasingly depend on specic
emission scenarios. In case of temperature rise, the best estimate for a low scenario is
1.8C and the best estimate for high scenario is 4C.
In India, almost 67 per cent of the glaciers in the Himalayan mountain ranges have
retreated in the past decades. Available records suggest that Gangotri glacier is retreating
about 30 m per year. A warming is likely to increase the melting far more rapidly than
the accumulation. The past 200 years of instrumental observations indicate that the
summer monsoon rainfall has undergone multi-decadal epochal variations in terms
of the frequencies of droughts/oods (i.e., alternating 20-30 year periods of more and
less frequent droughts), however, on a smaller space scale, there are areas showing both
increasing (e.g. west coast) and decreasing (e.g. east central India) long-term trends in
monsoon rainfall, sharp decrease in rainy days (Goswami et al., 2006; Rajeevan et al.,
2006; Ramesh and Goswami, 2007).
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of current extreme
weather events, greater monsoon variability ( Zickeld et al., 2005) and also the emergence
of new disaster, that is, sea level rise (Nicholls and Tol, 2006) and new vulnerabilities
30

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with differential spatial and socio-economic impacts on communities (Revi, 2008). This
unprecedented increase is expected to have severe impact on the hydrological cycle, water
resource (drought, ood, drinking water, forest and ecosystems, sea level/coastal area
(losses of coastal wetlands and mangroves), food security, health and other related areas
(De et al., 2005; Emanuel, 2005; Bhattacharya et al., 2006; Kesavan and Swaminathan,
2006 & 2008; Ravindranath et al., 2006; Kalra et al., 2007; Panda et al., 2007; Schmidhuber
and Tubiello, 2007; Jagtap and Nagle, 2007; IPCC, 2008). The impact would be particularly
disasters for developing countries, including India and further degrade the resilience of
poor, vulnerable communities, which make up between one quarter and one half of
the population of most Indian cities (Pachauri, 2004, 2007; Satterthwaite et al., 2007;
Sundareshwar et al., 2007; Nirupma, 2008). With rapid development of coastal areas,
urbanisation, agriculture expansion, increasing population, rapid industrialisation, and
economic development, more areas/populations are becoming vulnerable to climate risk
and many have no choice to migrate safer places.
Climate change is a global problem and India will feel the heat due to its unique
geophysical and hydro-climatic conditions. Presently, about 68 per cent area is liable to
droughts, 8 per cent area is prone to cyclone and 40 million hectare area (1/8 th of total
area) is prone to oods. In the decade 1990-2000, an average of about 4,344 people lost
their lives and about 30 million people affected by disasters every year. In 2006 at global
level, the most signicant disasters in terms of economic damage was the ood in India,
that is, US$ 3.39 billion (0.29 per cent of the previous year GDP) and around 40 millions
were victims. The reported natural disasters and number of people killed were 21 and
1,521 respectively during 2006 in India (CRED, 2007). Nearly 700 million rural people in
India directly depend on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, forests and sheries) and
natural resources (water, biodiversity, mangroves, coastal zones and grass lands) for their
subsistence and livelihood. Under changing climate, food security of the country might
come under threat. In addition, the adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest and
coastal community is low. Climate change is likely to impact all the natural ecosystems
as well as health (e.g. malaria) and socio-economic systems.
The effects of climate change will not be homogeneous throughout the globe;
therefore, the impacts are diverse and highly location-specic. Climatic and other
environmental changes are dangerous, indeed deadly for many, but the victims are,
and will be, overwhelmingly the poor and the marginalised. Future climate change
is expected to put close to 50 million extra people at risk of hunger by 2020 rising to
an additional 132 million and 266 million by 2050 and 2080 respectively. Unchecked

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 31
climate change will be an environmental and economic catastrophe but above all it
will be a human tragedy.
Reason of Concern
Very recently, disaster managers and policy planners have hardly believed and engaged
in climate change debates, but now nding clear evidence for an observed change in
surface temperature, rainfall, evaporation and extreme events, climate change is getting
importance as a signicant environmental challenge and disaster. While changes in
average climate conditions can have serious consequences by themselves, the main impacts
of global climate change will be felt due to changes in climate variability and weather
extremes. It is observed during last decade and also projected that extreme events i.e. heat
waves, cold waves, more oods, more droughts, more intense cyclones and ash oods will
increase and for that we must be concerned about. For example, extremes in maximum and
minimum temperature are expected to increase into the future, but the night temperatures
are increasing faster than the day temperatures. Extreme rainfall shows substantial increases
over large area, particularly over the west coast and west central India.
Hydro-meteorological disasters are on the rise and threaten the development gains
and poverty alleviations efforts of many developing countries. At the same time, climate
change is modifying the hazards triggering these disasters, leading to more severe impacts.
These changes should be factored into development practices and especially disaster risk
management in order to reduce the rising human, economic and nancial losses from
extreme weather events and climate variability. Researchers and policy makers across the
world understood the importance of this. Since disasters are a human phenomenon we
can change our ways to reduce our risks. There is need to have a paradigm shift in disaster
management especially under changing climate.
Indias Climate, Population, Food and Freshwater Needs
Indian area is of sub-continental size. Its geographical area of about 329 m ha is criss-
crossed by a large number of small and big rivers, some of them guring amongst the
mighty rivers of the world and it is located between longitude 680 07 and 970 25 E and
latitude 80 09 and 370 06 N. It is bounded by Himalayan range in the north and sea
on three sides encompasses varied geographical and climatic zones ranging from the hot
desert of Thar in the northwestern corner to the cold desert of Ladakh in the extreme
north, the arid region of the Rann of Kutch (rainfall 15 cm or less) in the west to the
worlds wettest place, Mawsynram (rainfall 400 cm or more), in the northeast.
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Long period average annual rainfall over the contiguous Indian area is about 117 cm;
however, this rainfall is highly variable both in time and in space. Almost 75 per cent (
88 cm + 10 SD) of the long average annual rainfall comes down in the four months of
June to September(SW monsoon).The heaviest rains of the order of 200-400 cm or even
more occur over northeast India and along the Western Ghats situated along the west
coast of the peninsular India. Largely, the annual average rainfall over the northern Indo-
Gangetic plains running parallel to the foothills of the Himalayas varies from about 150
cm in the east to 50 cm in the west. Over the central parts of the India and northern half
of the peninsular India, it varies from 150 cm in the eastern half to about 50 cm on the lee
side of the Western Ghats. In the Southern half of the Indian peninsula, average annual
rainfall varies from 100 cm to 75 cm as we go from east to west. On the other hand, some
regions in the extreme western part of the country, such as western Rajasthan, receive
average annual rainfall, which is of the order of about 15 cm or even less.
There are considerable intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal variations as well. The
summer monsoon rainfall oscillates between active spells with good monsoon and weak
spells or the breaks in the monsoon rains when Decient to scanty (20%) rains occur on
all India bases for a few days at a stretch. Weak and active spells of the summer monsoon
are determined by the position of the monsoon trough extending from the northwestern
end over the Rajasthan desert to the head Bay of Bengal. The monsoon trough oscillates
either south or north of this normal position over the Gangetic plains. When the trough
is to the south or close to the normal position, active spells result and when it is near
the foothills, weak monsoon conditions prevails. The heavy rainfalls in the Northeastern
States, West coast and the Ghats are inuenced by the orography.
The year-to-year variability in monsoon rainfall (Figure 1) leads to extreme hydrological
events (large scale drought and oods) resulting in serious reduction in agricultural output
and affecting the vast population and the national economy. A normal monsoon with
an evenly distributed rainfall throughout the country is a bonanza, while an extreme
event of ood or drought over the entire country or a smaller region constitutes a natural
hazard. Hence, the variation in seasonal monsoon rainfall may be considered a measure
to examine climate variability/change over the Indian monsoon domain in the context
of the global warming.
Droughts, oods and desertication are directly connected with monsoon/rainfall
patterns, ocean circulation and soil moisture and water availability. As discussed above
the problem of Indian rainfall are diverse, in terms of both geographical distribution
and seasonality, and spread over a period of years. There are large variations in the total

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 33
rainfall received in each geographical division, causing both droughts and oods. The
fury of these natural disasters has arguably been more intense and more frequent by
the abuse of nature and degradation of environment. The adverse impacts of these two
natural disasters cannot be assessed merely in economic terms based on destruction of
crops, property and infrastructure because the toll of human misery in the form of death,
disease, injury, loss of employment, psychological trauma, and above all the set-back
to development are too difcult to evaluate (Sivakumar, 2006; Dash and Hunt, 2007;
Attwood, 2005; Prabhakar and Shaw, 2008; Revi, 2008).
Figure 1: All India Summer Monsoon rainfall anomalies (1871-2009)
(Source: ITM-Pune)
Two of the external factors, which affect the Indian monsoon, are the El Nino
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Himalayan/Eurasian snow. The El
Nino/Southern Oscillation (SO) are known to have a signicant relationship with the
Indian summer monsoon rainfall (Krishnarmurthy and Kirtman, 2003; kane, 2006; Ihara
34

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et al., 2007). Nageswara Rao (1998) studied the inter-annual variations of the monsoon
rainfall in the Godavari basin in relation to the SO and found that the monsoon rainfall
in Godavari basin has a signicant negative correlation with SO. Association of El Nino
and La Nino episodes have been found to be related with monsoon rainfall over India
and in a way are responsible for causing either drought (El-Nino +ve) conditions or
good-monsoon, that is, oods (La Nina) over India. But it has been seen that all El-Nino
episodes do not cause droughts and in a similar way all La-Nina episodes do not cause
excess rainfall (Kulshrestha, 1997).
India is a union of States with a federal set up. Politically, the country is divided into 28
States and 7 Union Territories. A major part of Indias population of 1,027 millions with
decadal growth of 21.34 per cent from 1991-2001 is rural and agriculturally oriented for
whom the rivers and groundwater are the source of their prosperity. The United Nations
has estimated that the world population grew at an annual rate of 1.4 per cent during
1990-2000. China registered a much lower annual rate of growth (1.0%) along with the
US as 0.9 per cent during 1990-2000, as compared to India (1.9% during 1991-2001).
It is investigated that if the National Population Policy (NPP) if fully implemented, the
population of India should be 1,107 million by 2010 (Census of India, 2001). However,
countrys population is expected to reach a level of around 1,390 million by 2025 and
1,700 million by 2050.
In India, average food consumption at present is 550 gm per capita per day, whereas
the corresponding gures in China and the US are 980 gm and 2,850 gm respectively.
Present annual requirement based on present consumption level (550 gm) for the country
is about 210 MT, which is almost equal to the current production. While the area under
food grain, for instance, fell from 126.67 m ha to 123.06 m ha during the period from
1980-81 to 1999-2000, the production registered an increase from 129.59 MT to 209 MT
during that period. The food grain production looked quite impressive in 1999-2000,
which is more than 4 times the production of 50.82 MT in 1950-51 (Source: Directorate
of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, New Delhi, India). It is feared that
the fast increasing demand in next two or three decades could be quite grim particularly
in view of serious problem of soil degradation. The total gross irrigated area has nearly
trebled from 22.6 m ha in 1950-51 to 99.1 m ha in 1998-99. Out of this, 34.3 m ha is
from major and medium projects, 12.7 m ha from minor schemes using surface water
and 52.2 m ha from groundwater. As against the national average of 38 per cent of the
total cropped area being irrigated, Punjab had the distinction of achieving highest-level
irrigation (92%), followed by Haryana (79%) and Uttar Pradesh (66%) (CWC, 2002).

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 35
The per capita average annual freshwater availability has reduced from 5,177 cu m from
1951 to about 1,820 cu m in 2001 and is estimated to further come down to 1,341 cu
m (projected) in 2025 and 1,140 cu m (projected) in 2050 (MoWR, 2003).This clearly
indicates the two sided effect on water resourcesthe rise in population will increase
the demand of water leading to faster withdrawal of water and this in turn would reduce
the recharging time of the water tables. As a result, availability of water is bound to reach
critical levels sooner or later.
Extreme Weather Events/Hydro Meteorological Disasters
India is vulnerable to extreme weather events (Box 1). Over the decade of the 1990s, both the
number and severity of such events have increased. One of the anticipated effects of climate
change is the possible increase in both frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.
Weather events can be classied as extreme through various factors such as the impact
the events has economically (insurance cost), socially (loss of life) and environmentally
(destruction of habitat). The reinsurance rm Swiss Re assembled a list of the top deadliest
and costliest events for 1970-2001. Presented below are the top ve extreme weather
events taken from the list. Table 1 shows that in economic terms, extreme weather events
have been felt the most in the developing world. On the other hand, the deadliest extreme
weather events often occur in developing countries where people live in vulnerable,
marginalised areas (Table 2).
BOX 1: Examples of Extreme Weather Events
Primary Climatic Events
l Cold wave, Fog, Snow storms and Avalanches
l Hailstorm, Thunderstorm and Dust storms
l Extreme Temperature
l Tropical Cyclone and Tidal Wave
l Floods, Heavy rain
l Droughts (Hydrological, Meteorological and Agricultural etc.)
Secondary Events ( May be Climate-Driven)
l Incidence of epidemics or diseases
l Urban and Rural Water shortage
l Crop Plantation Failure or harvest failure
l Malnutrition or under nutrition and hunger
l Landslides, saline water intrusion and mudflows
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Table 1: Top fve costliest extreme weather events 1970-2001
*
Table 2: Top Five Deadliest Extreme Weather Events 1970-2002
*
*Adopted from Swiss Re Sigma report Natural catastrophic and manmade disasters in 2001:
Manmade losses take a new dimension (No. 1/2002).
The IPCC in its Fourth Assessment Report outlined the likelihood of the occurrence
of such extremes in the 21st century. Simple extremes, such as higher maximum land
temperatures and more intense precipitation, are projected to be very likely, that is, to
have a 90-99 per cent chance of occurring. These amplied simple extremes could lead to
extreme weather events like drought and ooding.
Presently, in India more than 70 per cent of its population relying on agriculture
directly or indirectly, the impact of extreme weather events is critical. In the last decade,
Rank Victim
(Dead &
Missing)
Insured
loss (USD
millions)
Date Event Country
1 38 20,185 August 23, 1992 Hurricane Andrew US, Bahamas
2 51 7,338 September 27, 1991 Typhoon Mireille Japan
3 95 6,221 January 25, 1990 Winter storm Daria France
4 80 6,164 December 25, 1999 Winter storm Lothar France
5 61 5,990 September 15, 1989 Hurricane Hugo
Puerto Rico
Rank Victim
1

(Dead &
Missing)
Insured loss
(in USD
millions)
Date Event Country
1 3,00,000 N/A
November
14, 1970
Storm & Flood Bangladesh
2 138,000 3
April 29,
1991
Tropical Cyclone
Gorky
Bangladesh
3 15,000 106
October 29,
1999
Cyclone 05B
India (Orissa)
Bangladesh
4 15,000 N/A
September
01, 1978
Flooding following
monsoon
Northern India
5 10,800 N/A
October 31,
1971
Flooding
India (Orissa)
Bay of Bengal

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 37
India has been battered by successive monsoons, oods and droughts. For example, for
the last 100 years in the state of Orissa, 49 years have experienced oods, 30 have had
droughts, and 11 faced cyclones. The analyses of the rainfall records of the monsoon
trends have continued till this day. These analyses have yielded a 30-year cyclicity of the
Indian monsoons (Figure 2). It was observed that drought as well as ood years occurred
in runs rather than scattered randomly through the years. Walker in his study found two
periods of greatest rainfall deciency, 1843-60 and 1895-1907. The latter period extended
till about 1920. This period was then followed by a remarkably low frequency of droughts
for the next 30 years or so. Droughts became once more common in the 1960s. Of the 14
major drought years in the 85-year record, 8 occurred in the rst 30 year period (1891-
1920) whereas there was only one in the second 30 year period (1921-50). In the 25-year
period from 1951-81, ve major drought years were recorded. In 1972 and 1979, decient
rainfall (about 25% below normal) was recorded in one half to two thirds of Indias Plains.
In 1994, monsoon rainfall was decient (by between 20 per cent and 43 per cent) in 10
of the 31 meteorological subdivisions of India.
Figure 2: 30-year Cyclicity of the Indian monsoons
According to WMO (1994), on the basis of data of major natural disasters/extremes
that occurred around the world during the period 1963-92, it is has been found that
oods and droughts cause the maximum damage as shown below:
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Floods and drought occurring in India are closely associated with the nature and
extent of the summer monsoon. The inter-annual uctuations in the summer monsoon
rainfall over India are sufciently large to cause devastating oods or serious droughts.
Floods and droughts affect vast areas of the country, transcending state boundaries. One-
sixth area of the country is drought-prone. Out of 40 hectare of the ood prone area in
the country, on an average, oods affect an area of around 7.5 hectare per year. Approach
to management of droughts and oods have to be coordinated and guided at the national
level.
Droughts
The primary cause of any drought is deciency of rainfall and in particular, the timing,
distribution and intensity of this deciency in relation to existing reserves. A prolonged
period of relatively dry weather leading to drought is a widely recognised climate anomaly.
Drought can be devastating to some countries as water supplies dry up, crops fail to grow,
animals die, and malnutrition and ill heath become widespread. The environmental
effects of drought, including salinisation of soil and groundwater decline, increased
pollution of freshwater ecosystems and regional extinction of animal species, continue to
weigh on affected continuous well after relieving rains occur.
Human factors that inuence drought include demand of water through population
growth and agricultural practices, and modication of land use that directly inuences
the storage conditions and hydrological response of catchments and thus its vulnerability
to drought. As pressures on water resources grow, vulnerability to meteorological drought
(WMO, 2002) also grow.
For the purpose of identication of drought prone areas by Central Water Commission
(CWC), the criterion adopted was that drought is a situation occurring in an area when
the annual rainfall is less than 75 per cent of normal in 20 per cent of the years examined.
Type of natural disasters
around the world
Damage caused by natural
calamities (%)
Floods 32
Tropical Cyclones 30
Droughts 22
Earthquakes 10
Other disasters 6

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 39
Any block or equivalent unit where 30 per cent or more of the cultivated area is irrigated
is considered to have reached a stage, which enable it to sustain a reasonable protection
against drought.
Sinha Ray and Shewale (2001) used rainfall data from 1875 to 1998 and gives the
percentage area of the country affected by moderate and severe drought. It may be noted
that during the complete 124 years period there were three occasions, that is, 1877, 1899
and 1918 when percentage of the country affected by drought was more than 60 per
cent (Table 3). It may be noted that during last years there was no occasion when the
percentage area of the country affected by drought was more than 50 per cent. It also
conrms the nding of Sen and Sinha Ray (1997), which showed a decreasing trend in
the area affected by drought in the country. In 124 years, probability of occurrence of
drought was found maximum in Rajasthan (25 per cent), Saurastra and Kutch (23 per
cent), followed by Jammu and Kashmir (21 per cent) and Gujarat (21 per cent) region.
The drought of 1987 in various parts of the country was of unprecedented intensity
resulting in serious crop damages and an alarming scarcity of drinking water. Only 12
out of 35 meteorological sub-divisions in the country had received normal rain. With
the decreased rainfall contributing to drought, the water levels in major reservoirs in the
country, meant for agricultural irrigation purposes and hydroelectric power, naturally
declined.
During 1999, 2000 and 2001, drought conditions prevailed over some parts of India, not
affecting the country as a whole signicantly. During 2002, 12 out of 36 subdivisions of the
country came under the grip of moderate to severe drought when about 56 per cent of the
total area of the country and livelihood of 300 million people in 18 states was affected by
drought. The seasonal rainfall departure ( per cent) for west Rajasthan and East Rajasthan were
-71 and -60 respectively. It is also observed that the number of villages in India experienced
drought is increasing. For example, in the state of Gujarat, only 2,000 villages experienced
drought in 1961 but by 1988, over 14,500 villages were affected. Of all the major natural
disasters, droughts account for nearly 22 per cent of signicant damages through the number
of deaths is only 3 per cent worldwide (De & Joshi, 1998).
During the period 1871 to 2002, there were 22 major drought years in India. According
to the Emergency Database (EM-DAT) of Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of
Disasters (CRED) reports, droughts have affected nearly 1,061 million peoples and killed 4.25
million people in India during 1900-2007 ( CRED, 2007; Prabhakar and Shaw, 2008). One
of the major reasons for these droughts has been a strong link with the El Nino-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) patterns and its linkages with Indian food grain production (Gadgill et
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al., 2003; Selvaraju, 2003; Saith and Slingo, 2006). Indian monsoon system, the dependent
water and agriculture sector and droughts are very much linked to the regional and global
climate system and hence are very much vulnerable to the changes in climate. Recently,
Goswami and Ramesh (2008) predicted sharp increase in the size of the Indian desert in the
next hundred years and that is a cause of concern for the policy makers and government.
Panda et al. (2007) investigated the inuence of repeated droughts and increased
anthropogenic pressure on the groundwater levels of the state of Orissa during the period
1994-2003. They found that the groundwater levels are very sensitive to the monsoon
rainfall, and any irregularity in rainfall directly inuences the groundwater levels. Due
to drought in 2002, the groundwater level dropped signicantly in the consolidated
formation that covers 80 per cent of the geographical areas of the state Orissa. This
study also revels that the recharge is not signicant enough to balance the groundwater
discharge due to the anthropogenic and natural sources. However, this study does not
determine whether drought, high temperatures or anthropogenic effects have had largest
inuence on the groundwater level decline.
Recently, one theme of the debates on the effects of economic globalisation concerns
the scale at which institutions seem effective and benecial, for human and the biosphere.
Attwood (2005) examines the impacts, over the last 150 years, of modern, large scale
systems of transport, marketing, administration, and irrigation on famines and food
security in a drought-prone region of western India. For centuries, recurrent droughts
have caused severe famines in this region. By 1920, large scale institutions integrated
this region into an industrial and globalising worldending famines and causing a rapid
decline in morality rates; hence, a rise in human welfare. These results are contrary to
the small is beautiful discourse of some anti-globalisation theorists sources. Yet, as
these theorists suggest, big institutions also often make insufcient use of vital resources.
Institutions such as the Deccan irrigation canals can be essential to survival yet require
careful redesign to ensure food security.
In a study by Pandey et al (2007), the economic cost of drought is found to be
substantially higher in eastern India. Higher probability and greater spatial covariance
of drought and less diversied farming systems with rice accounting for a larger share of
household income are the main reasons for this higher cost of drought in eastern India.
Farmers deploy various coping mechanisms but such mechanisms are largely unable to
prevent a reduction in income and consumption, especially in eastern India. As a result,
welfare consequences on poor farmers are substantial with a large number of people
falling back into poverty during drought years. The overall implications for technology

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 41
design and policy improvements for drought mitigation and drought relief need to be
discussed in future as drought is a major constraint affecting rice production, especially
in rain fed areas of Asia. Despite its importance in rice-growing areas, the magnitude
of economic losses arising from drought, its impact on farm households, and farmers
drought coping mechanisms are poorly understood.
Table 3: Drought years with percentage area of the country affected by drought
S.
No.
Year
Area affected in percentage area of the country affected by
drought
Moderate drought Severe drought Total
1 1877 30.6 28.9 59.5
2 1891 22.4 0.3 22.7
3 1899 44.1 24.3 68.4
4 1901 19.3 10.7 30.0
5 1904 17.5 16.9 34.4
6 1905 25.2 12.0 37.2
7 1907 27.9 1.2 29.1
8 1911 13.0 15.4 28.4
9 1913 24.5 0.0 24.5
10 1915 18.8 3.4 22.2
11 1918 44.3 25.7 70.0
12 1920 35.7 2.3 38.0
13 1925 21.1 0.0 21.1
14 1939 17.8 10.7 28.5
15 1941 35.5 0.0 35.5
16 1951 35.1 0.0 35.1
17 1965 38.3 0.0 38.3
18 1966 35.4 0.0 35.4
19 1968 21.9 0.0 21.9
20 1972 36.6 3.8 40.4
21 1974 27.1 6.9 34.0
22 1979 33.0 1.8 34.8
23 1982 29.1 0.0 29.1
24 1985 25.6 16.7 42.3
25 1987 29.8 17.9 47.7
26 2002 19.0 10.0 29.0
27 2009 32.5 13.5 46.0
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Floods
India is one of the most ood prone countries in the world. Twenty-three out of thirty
two-states/union territories in the country are subject to oods and 40 m ha of land,
roughly one-eighth of the countries geographical area, is prone to oods. The national
Flood Control Program was launched in the country in 1954. Since then sizeable progress
has been made in the ood protection measures. By 1976, nearly one third of the ood
prone area had been afforded reasonable protection; considerable experience has been
gained in planning, implementation and performance of ood warming, protection and
control measures (CWC, 2007).
According to CWC report (Water data complete book 2005; CWC, 2007), the ood
affected area and damages for the period 1953 to 2004 in India is given in Table 4.
Table: 4: Flood affected area and damages in India (1953 to 2004)
Source: Central Water Commission (FMP Directorate)
Floods occur in almost all rivers basins in India. Heavy rainfall, inadequate capacity of
rivers to carry the high ood discharge, inadequate drainage to carry away the rainwater
quickly to streams/rivers are the main causes of oods. Ice jams or landslides blocking
streams, typhoons and cyclones also cause oods. Excessive rainfall combined with
inadequate carrying capacity of streams resulting in over spilling of banks is the cause
for ooding in majority of cases. The area affected by ood in the country from 1953 to
Sl
No.
Item Unit Average During
(1953-2004)
Maximum
Damage (Year)
1 Area Affected Million Hectare 7.63 17.50 (1978)
2 Population affected Million 32.92 70.45 (1978)
3 Human Lives Lost No. 1597 11,316 (1977)
4 Cattle Lost Th. No 94 618 (1979)
5 Cropped Area Affected Million Hectare 3.56 10.15 (1988)
6 Value of Damage Crops Rs. Crore 708.57 4,246.6 (2000)
7 Houses Damaged Th. No. 1,235.61 3,508 (1978)
8 Value of Damage Houses Rs. Crore 251.05 1,307.9 (1995)
9 Value of Damage Public Utilities Rs. Crore 813.69 5,604 (2001)
10 Value of total Damage to Houses,
Crops and Public Utilities
Rs. Crore 1,817.07 8,864 (2000)

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 43
2004 is given in Figure 3. On an average, the area actually affected by oods every year
in India is of the order of 10 million hectares of which about half is cropland. Rashtriya
Barh Ayog (RBA) constituted by the Government of India in 1976 carried out an extensive
analysis to estimate the ood-affected area in the country. RBA in its report has assessed
the area liable to oods as 40 million hectares. Persistent occurrence of rainfall over an
area already soaked with rain or intense rainfall often results in ood. Excess water in a
river, due to heavy and/or persistent rains in the catchment area or the upper regions of
the river system also create ood downstream. Absence or lack of adequate drainage in
any area will aggravate the ooding. Flash oods occur due to high rate of water ow as
also due to poor permeability of the soil. Areas with hardpan just below the surface of the
soil are more prone to oods as water fails to seep down to the deeper layers.
Vulnerability to oods and other natural disasters is caused by the high population
density, widespread poverty, unemployment, illiteracy, enormous pressure on rural
land, and on economy traditionally dominated by agriculture. Children and women are
particularly vulnerable. 85 per cent of the deaths during disasters are women and children
(CRED, 2000). This can be attributed to malnourishment and ill health. Social causes can
also lead to deaths of women. Women traditionally play the role of protector of house
and belonging; they are usually reluctant to go to secure shelters.
Gupta et al. (2003) found that at present an inadequate level of protection is in country
against oods. Though non-structural measures improves the preparedness to oods and
reduce losses, the necessity of structural measures would always remain to reduce the
extent of physical damage caused by oods. In addition to that, there is clear evidence to
suggest that exploitation of the environment can signicantly impact the frequency and
severity of natural disasters like oods. In future, at the national level, ood control and
management planning along with climate change need to be integrated into development
planning for the country.
Nath et al, (2008) discussed the outline of ood management. He has stressed the
coordination by district disaster management committee before the onset of monsoon
season and the very onset of the ood hazard, the highest priority is on search, rescue
and evacuation, in addition to organisation of relief facilities. Kale et al (1997) reviewed
the ood situation in India and found that existing studies seems to concentrate in two
areas viz. rst deals with hydro-meteorological analysis of ood producing rainfall and
associated synaptic conditions and second area is related to stream ow analysis and
the estimation of design oods. This trend is likely to continue in future. While the
quantitative approach to the problem is indispensable in predictive models, it is felt
44

u

that future opportunities to improve our understanding of this recurring natural hazard
should include research into the natural trends and the behaviour of oods on longer
time scale, and increased evaluation of the impact of anthropogenic activities on the river
system (Mall et al., 2006; Gosain et al., 2006).
Tropical Cyclone
The yearly distribution of tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean indicates large
year-to-year variations in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances and tropical cyclones,
but no distinct periodicity. However, there appears to be a slight decreasing trend with
time. The annual average of cyclonic disturbances in the North Indian Ocean is about
15.7 with a standard deviation of 3.1. The annual number of cyclonic disturbances range
from 7 (1984) to 23 (1927). The annual average of tropical cyclones has varied from
1(1949) to 10 (1893, 1926, 1930, 1976).
Mandal (1992) examined the annual frequency of cyclonic disturbances and tropical
cyclones in different seasons. The variability in their seasonal frequency also displays
features similar to that in the annual frequency. There is a slight decreasing trend,
particularly during the monsoon season. It has also been observed that most global basins
have decreasing trend in the mean storm frequency during the period 1966-87 (Mandal,
1989). Interestingly, some important studies related to future projection of tropical
cyclone frequencies in the background of global warming (Lighthill, 1994; Bengtsson
et al., 1996) also indicated either no signicant change or even a decrease in cyclone
frequencies, which seems to be consistent with the facts that are evident from the above
analyses.
The analysis indicates a signicant decreasing trend in the frequency of cyclonic
disturbances in the monsoon season (Srivastava et al., 2000; Rajeevan et al., 2001)
and the annual cyclonic disturbances. The trend is not signicant for the time series
of pre-monsoon (March-May) and post-monsoon (October-December) cyclonic
disturbances. On the decadal scale, the frequencies of annual and monsoon season
cyclonic disturbances show a signicant decreasing trend. The time series of annual
and monsoon season cyclonic disturbances show signicant quasi-biennial oscillation.
There is yet no clear evidence to link the recent increase in the relative frequency of
intense cyclonic storm and the increasing SST over the Bay of Bengal. Singh (2001)
have observed signicant decreasing trends in the frequencies of cyclonic disturbances
(i.e. depressions and cyclonic storms) by utilising 110 years data from 1890-2000. The
trend analysis shows that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances has decreased at the

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 45
rate of about six to seven disturbances per hundred years in the monsoon season. The
frequency of cyclonic storms of monsoon season has decreased at the rate of one or two
cyclones per hundred years.
India has a long coastline of 8,000 km. About 71 per cent of this area is in ten states
(Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Andhra Pradesh,
Orissa, and West Bengal). The islands of Andaman, Nicobar and Lakshadweep are also
prone to cyclones. On an average, about ve or six tropical cyclones form in the Bay of
Bengal and Arabian sea and hit the coast every year. Out of these, two or three are severe.
A severe super cyclonic storm with winds of up to 250 km/h, crossed the coast in
Orissa on October 29, 1999. This may prove to have been the worst cyclone of the
country in the Orissa region and is responsible for as many as 10,000 deaths, rendering
millions homeless, and extensive damage. Some of the disastrous tropical storms of the
20th century are given in Table 5.
Table 5: Major Cyclones of India and Neighbourhood
Year Name of the Country No. of Deaths
Storm surge
(Height, in ft.)
1737 Hoogli, West Bengal ( India) 3,00,000 40
1876 Bakerganj ( Bangladesh) 2,50,000 10-40
1885 False point ( Orissa) 5,000 22
1960 Bangladesh 5,490 19
1961 Bangladesh 11,468 16
1970 Bangladesh 2,00,000 13-17
1971 Paradeep, Orissa ( India) 10,000 7-20
1977 Chirala, Andhra Pradesh 10,000 16-18
1990 Andhra Pradesh 990 13-17
1991 Bangladesh 1,38,000 7-20
1998 Porbander cyclone 1,173 --
1999 Paradeep, Orissa 9,885 30
Heat Wave
Extreme positive departures from the normal maximum temperature result in heat wave
during the summer season. The rising maximum temperature during the pre-monsoon
months often continues till June, even in rare cases till July over the northwestern parts
of the country. Table 6 gives the number of heat wave observed in India during the
1901-99.
46

u

Table 6: Number of Heat Wave
Sources: 1901-10: Annual summary.
1911-67: Bedekar FMU; De, et al., 2005.
1968-77: Disastrous Weather Events Reports-Annual
1978-99: WMO Bulletin, October 2000, 49, 4, pp. 340-348.
2000-09**:IMD & EMDAT.
In recent years, heat wave induced casualties have some what increased. Abnormally
high temperatures were observed during April 2002 across the country and a prolonged
heat wave over northern regions of India from mid-April through the third week of May
caused more than 1000 fatalities. On May 10, the maximum temperature at Gannavaram
(Vijayawada) reached 49C (WMO 2003).
Epochs
1911-67 1968-77 1978-99 2000-09
**
1901-2009
Wes West Bengal 31 2 28 6 67
Bihar 76 9 28 4 117
Uttar Pradesh 105 6 23 134
Rajasthan 27 3 42 14 56
Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch 43 1 7 2 53
Punjab 2 6 8
Himachal Pradesh 1 1 2
Jammu and Kashmir
Maharashtra 26 5 35 12 78
Madhya Pradesh 32 4 15 5 56
Orissa 25 8 18 22 73
Andhra Pradesh 21 3 2 26
Assam 4 19 23
Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh 1 2 2 5
Tamil Nadu 5 - 2 1 8
Karnataka 1
Telangana
Rayalaseema 31 2 28 61

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 47
During 2003 pre-monsoon months, heat wave brought peak temperatures in May
of between 45C and 49C. This years heat was particularly harsh, with a death toll of
at least 1500 people. This contrasted strongly with the unseasonably low temperatures
observed in northern Indian in January and December. Maximum temperatures then
were 4 to 5C below normal, which resulted in more than 2,500 fatalities (WMO 2004).
Decrease in the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) due to urbanisation is a new
factor leading to human mortality and discomfort. Increased minimum temperatures in
summer do not allow the necessary nocturnal cooling to neutralise the high maximum
temperature during a heat wave epoch.
Cold Wave and Fog
Occurrences of extreme low temperature in association with incursion of dry cold winds
from north into the sub continent are known as cold waves. The northern parts of
India, specially the hilly regions and the adjoining plains, are inuenced by transient
disturbances in the mid-latitude westerlies which often have weak frontal characteristics.
These are known as western disturbances. The cold waves mainly affect the areas to the
north of 20N but in association with large amplitude troughs, cold wave conditions are
sometimes reported from States like Maharashtra and Karnataka as well. Table 7 gives the
frequencies of the occurrence of cold waves in different parts of the country for different
periods. The maximum number of cold waves occurs in Jammu and Kashmir followed by
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. It may be seen that number of cold waves in Gujarat and
Maharashtra are almost one per year though these states are located in more southern
location. In recent years due to deterioration of the air quality in urban locations of
India the deaths and discomfort from cold waves have been substantial, (De and Sinha
Ray, 2000). Their study showed that in states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar the number of
deaths from extreme events in the cold weather season during 1978-99 was 957 and 2,307
respectively. These two States rank the highest in terms of casualties from cold wave. The
reason for this could be the poor level of development and lack of shelters to the outdoor
workers and farmers.
During January 2000 due to thick fog, one truck carrying cattle skidded injuring dozens
of cattles. Air and railway services were affected considerably. Delhi airport was closed for
hours together disrupting ights. Thick ground fog affected vehicular trafc (DWE2000).
On December 26-27, 2001 (DWE 2001) in Ferozepur and Sindh area, 6 persons died and 8
were injured in an accident due to thick fog. On January 10, 2002, 4 persons died in a road
accident at Phagwara (near Kapurthala) due to dense fog. At Bankura on January 15-16, 2002
48

u

(DWE 2002), due to dense fog, 2 buses collided (near Burjora) and 30 passengers were injured.
The ights were suspended. In Darjeeling on January 27-29, 2002, the vehicular trafc was
disrupted due to dense fog. On December 28-29, 2002, railway and air services came to a
standstill as Delhi city and entire Ganga valley was covered under thick fog.
During 1st to 3rd week of January 2003 (DWE 2003), accident due to dense fog was
reported from Haryana and Punjab in which 19 people died. Punjab and Uttar Pradesh
rail/road and air trafc were badly affected due to dense fog.
Table 7: Number of Cold Waves
Sources:1901-10: Annual summary.
1911-67: Bedekar FMU; De et al., 2005.
1968-77: Disastrous weather Events reports-Annual.
1978-99: WMO bulletin, October 2000, 49, 4, pp.340-348.
2000-09**: IMD & EMDAT.
Epochs
1901-10 1911-67 1968-77 1978-99 2000-09
**
1901-2009
West Bengal 2 14 3 28 7 54
Bihar 7 27 8 67 12 121
Uttar Pradesh 21 51 8 47 13 140
Rajasthan 11 124 7 53 12 207
Gujarat, Saurashtra
and Kutch
2 85 6 6 99
Punjab 3 34 4 19 10 70
Himachal Pradesh - - 4 18 4 26
Jammu and Kashmir 1 189 6 15 2 213
Maharashtra - 60 4 18 1 83
Madhya Pradesh 9 88 7 12 1 117
Orissa 4 5 - - 3 15
Andhra Pradesh 2 - - - - 2
Assam 1 1 - - 2 4
Haryana, Delhi and
Chandigarh
- - 4 15 15 34
Tamil Nadu - - - -
Karnataka 10 - 10
Telangana 5 1 6
Rayalaseema 3 3
Jharkhand 1 1
Dehradun 1 1

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 49
Thunderstorm, Hailstorm and Dust Storm
As winter season transforms into warmer side, the temperature rises initially in
the southern parts of India, giving rise to thunderstorms and squally weather which
are hazardous in nature. While the southernmost part of the country is free from dust
storm and hailstorm, such hazardous weather affect the central, northeastern, north
and northwestern parts of the country. Records indicate that the largest size hailstone
occurred in association with a thunderstorm in April, 1888 at Moradabad a town
near Delhi (De et al., 2006). The hailstone measured size of a Pigeons egg in diameter
(IMD 1888) . The hailstorm frequencies are highest in the Assam valley, followed by
hills of Uttar Pradesh now known as Uttaranchal, South Bihar (now known as Jharkhand)
and Vidarbha in the eastern parts of Maharashtra (Philip and Daniel, 1976). However,
thunderstorms also occur in these areas during the rest of the year as well, for example,
Calcutta (Kolkata) has the highest frequency of thunderstorm in September while
Delhi, Jaipur and Ahmadabad have the highest frequencies in July. In some of the
worst di sasters associ ated wi th hailstorms, 8 persons were killed in Kanpur
(Uttar Pradesh) on February 28, 1992, and 9 persons died near Nagpur (Maharashtra)
in February 1979. Thunderstorm and squally winds killed 19 people in Patna on May
29, 1997, while in Kolkata 9 people died on March 26, 1993 due to thunderstorm and
lightning (De and Dandekar, 2001). Cataloguing of Disastrous Weather Events by the
India Meteorological Department started in 1967. Prior to 1967, reports of deaths
(loss of life) in association with thunderstorms are many.
Tornadoes are rare in India but some of them are quite devastating. In recent years, a
tornado struck Delhi on March 17, 1978 injuring over 1000 people and inicting a damage
of rupees ten million in terms of losses to properties and infrastructures. Some of other
tornadoes which caused extensive damage and destruction in the country include (i)
April 19, 1963 tornado at Coochbehar (West Bengal) which killed 139 people and rendered
3,760 families homeless, (ii) April 01, 1977 tornado at Dhaka which killed 500 people and
left 6,000 injured, (iii) April 12, 1983 tornado at Gaighata in West Bengal which killed 28
people and left 500 injured, (iv) October 19, 1987 tornado at Chapra in Bihar which killed 20
lives and left 517 injured, (v) April 09, 1993 tornado at Kanthi in West Bengal which took a
toll of 50 people and left 180 injured, and (vi) October 29, 1999 tornado at Midnapore and
South 24 Pargana districts close to Paradip which injured 80 people.
50

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Observad Changes in Climate During 20th Century
In India, several studies show that there is increasing trend in surface temperature, that
is, 0.5 to 0.6
o
C during 1901-2005 and 0.05
o
C/decade year during the period 1901-2003,
the recent period 1971-2003 has seen a relatively accelerated warming of 0.22
o
C/decade,
(Singh and Sontakke, 2002; Kothawale and Rupakumar, 2005; Mall et al., 2006; Dash
and Hunt, 2007). There was no signicant trend in rainfall and/or decreasing/increasing
trends in rainfall and sharp decrease in rainy days (Singh and Sontakke, 2002; Goswami et
al., 2006; Rajeevan et al., 2006; Ramesh and Goswami, 2007). Singh and Sontakke (2002)
found that the summer monsoon rainfall over western Indo Gangetic Plain Region (IGPR)
shows increasing trend (170 mm/100 yrs., signicant at 1 per cent level) from 1900, while
over central IGPR it shows decreasing trend (5 mm/100 yrs., not signicant) from 1939,
and over eastern IGPR decreasing trend (50 mm/100 yrs., not signicant) during 1900-
84, and insignicant increasing trend (480 mm/100 yrs., not signicant) during 1984-99.
Broadly it is inferred that there has been a westward shift in rainfall activities over the
IGPR. Recently, Goswami et al. (2006) found that the frequency of occurrence as well
as intensity of heavy and very-heavy rainfall events have highly signicant increasing
trends; low and moderate events have signicant decreasing trend over Central India.
Figure 3: All India Mean Annual Temperature Anomalies during 1901-2007
(Source: IITM, Pune).

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 51
Course Change by Rivers
Reddy et al. (2008) reported that during 1990 to 2004, Kosi River shows a signicant shift
of 3.5 km in northwestern part, followed by central and north eastern parts of river with
2.5 km shift. Course change by the rivers is an environmental problem of serious concern
in the Indo Gangetic Plain Region (IGPR). At different times in the past different rivers
changed their course a number of times. During the period 1731-1963, the course of the
Kosi river (the sorrow of Bihar) has shifted westward by about 125 km, the courses of
Ganges, Ghaghara and Son at their conuence have shifted by 35 to 50 km since epic
period1,000 BC (Singh, 1971) and that of Indus and its tributaries by 10-30 km in the
1,200 years in the same (Wilhelmy, 1967). Between 2500 BC and 500 BC, the course of
River Yamuna shifted westward to join Indus and then east to join River Ganges thrice
(Raikes, 1968).
Projected Climate Change Over India
Several recent studies (Kitoh et al., 1997; Lal et al., 2000) have conrmed earlier results
(Kattenberg et al., 1996) indicating an increase in inter-annual variability of daily
precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon with increased GHGs. Lal et al. (2000)
also report an increase in intra-seasonal precipitation variability and suggest that
intra-seasonal and inter-annual increases are associated with increased intra-seasonal
convective activity during the summer. The intensity of extreme rainfall events is
projected to be higher in a warmer atmosphere, suggesting a decrease in return period
for extreme precipitation events and the possibility of more frequent ash oods
in parts of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh (Lal et al., 2000). The UKMO GCM model
(Bhaskaran et al., 1995) predicts a total precipitation increase of approximately 20 per
cent and increase in winter temperature by 1-4 C with increased CO
2
concentration.
Specic humidity increases by 19 per cent, indicating that the increased monsoon
rainfall is largely due to increased water content of the atmosphere. The model also
predicts a greater number of heavy rainfall days during the summer monsoon period,
and an increased inter-annual variability.
Rupakumar and Ashrit (2001) have projected 13 per cent increase in monsoon rainfall
in India using ECHAM4 model, while HadCM2 suggests reduction in monsoon rainfall
by 6 per cent in the greenhouse gas simulation. Both GCMs suggest an increase in annual
mean temperature by more than 1C (1.3 C in ECHAM4 and 1.7 C HadCM2). Rupakumar
(2002) concluded that coupled models indicate general warming and enhanced rainfall
conditions over India towards the later half of the 21st century, in a GHG increase
52

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scenario; however, there is some disagreement among the models on rainfall changes.
Regional climate models display good skills in reproducing local features. Preliminary
results with HadRM2/HadCM2 indicate general warming into 2050s, but no substantial
change in monsoon rainfall. He showed decrease in rainfall in some states (viz. Jammu
and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan, etc.) in India. May (2002)
predicts an intensication of the rainfall in the Indian region during the monsoon season
as a consequences of the anticipated increase in the greenhouse gases concentrations.
The increase of the regional rainfall is found to be related to an intensication of the
atmospheric moisture transport into the Indian region. Observation also indicates a
weakening of the large scale aspects of the Indian summer monsoon (Stephenson et al.,
2001).
Recently, according to report published by Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF,
2010); the projection of precipitation indicates 3 per cent to 7 per cent overall increase
in all India summer monsoon rainfall in 2030s with respect to the 1970s; the annual
mean surface air temperature rise by 2030s range from 1.7
o
C to 2
o
C and the variability of
seasonal mean temperature may be more in winter months. This report also indicates that
the frequency of rainy days is set to decrease in most part of the country and intensity
of rain is going to increase, except in the Himalayas, north western region and southern
plateau. The daily extremes in surface temperature may intensify in the 2030s. The spatial
pattern of the change in the lowest daily minimum and highest maximum temperature
suggests a warming of 1 to 4C towards 2030s. The warming in night temperatures is
more over south peninsula, central and northern India, whereas day time warming is
more in central and northern India.
Impact on Different Sectors
Water Resources
The enhanced surface warming over the Indian subcontinent by the end of the next
century would result in an increase in pre-monsoonal and monsoonal rainfall and no
substantial change in winter rainfall over the central plains. This would result in an
increase in the monsoonal and annual runoff in the central plains with no substantial
change in winter runoff. They also indicated an increase in evaporation and soil wetness
during the monsoon and on an annual basis (Lal and Chander, 1993).
A case study of Orissa and West Bengal estimates that in the absence of protection,
one-meter sea level rise would inundate 1,700 sq km of predominantly prime agricultural

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 53
land (IPCC, 1992). The regional effects of climate change on various components of the
hydrological cycle, namely surface run-off, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET) for
three-drainage basins of central India were analysed and results indicated that the basin
located in a comparatively drier region is more sensitive to climatic change. The high
probability of a signicant effect of climate change on reservoir storage, especially for
drier scenarios, necessitates the need of a further, more critical analysis of these effects.
Chattopadhyay and Hulme (1997) calculated increase in potential evaporation across
India from GCM simulations of climate; they found that projected increases in potential
evaporation were related largely to increases in the vapor pressure decit resulting from
higher temperature.
The hydrologic sensitivity of the Kosi Basin to projected land-use, and potential climate
change scenarios has been analysed. It was found that runoff increase was higher than
precipitation increase in all the potential climate change scenarios applying cotemporary
temperature. The scenario of contemporary precipitation and a rise in temperature of
4
o
C caused a decrease in runoff by 2-8 per cent depending upon the areas considered
and model used (Sharma et al., 2000a, b). It is also projected that soil moisture increase
marginally by 15-20 per cent over parts of Southern and Central India. This increase is
conned to the monsoon months of June through September. During the rest of the
year, there is either no change in soil moisture, or a marginal decline possibly due to the
increase in temperature leading to enhanced ET (Lal and Singh, 2001).
Gosain et al. (2003, 2006) projected that the quantity of surface runoff due to climate
change would vary across the river basins as well as sub basins in India. However, there
is general reduction in the quantity of the available runoff. An increase in precipitation
in the Mahanadi, Brahmini, Ganges, Godavari and Cauvery is projected under climate
change scenario; however, the corresponding total runoff for all these basins does not
increase. This may be due to increase in ET because of increased temperature or variation
in the distribution of the rainfall. In the remaining basin, a decrease in precipitation is
noticed. Sabarmati and Luni basin shows drastic decrease in precipitation and consequent
decrease of total runoff to the tune of 2/3rd of the prevailing runoff. This may lead
to severe drought conditions in future. The analysis has revealed that climate change
scenario may deteriorate the condition in terms of severity of droughts and intensity
of oods in various parts of the country. There have been few more studies on climate
change impacts on Indian water resources (Roy et al., 2003; Chadha, 2003; Tangri, 2003).
Singh et al. (2009) highlighted the assessment of the water resources in changing
climate for relevant national and regional long-term development strategies. Goyal (2004)
54

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studied the sensitivity of ET to global warming for arid regions of Rajasthan and projected
an increase of 14.8 per cent of total ET demand with increase in temperature; however,
ET is less sensitive to increase in solar radiation, followed by wind speed in comparison
to temperature. Increase in water vapor has a negative impact on ET (-4.3 per cent). He
concluded that a marginal increase in ET demand due to global warming would have a
larger impact on resource poor, fragile arid zone ecosystem of Rajasthan.
Sea Level Change
The Asian development Bank has reported estimates with respect to the impact of a
1m sea level rise on India (Asthana, 1993). According to this source, in the absence of
protection, approximately 7 million people would be displaced. Some 5,700 km
2
would
be lost, contributing to an annual cost of some 1 per cent of GDP. Das and Radhakrishnan
(1991) reported a rising trend in the sea level at Mumbai (Bombay) during 1940-86 and
Chennai (madras) during 1910-33, based on the annual means of tide gauge observations.
Srivastava and Balakrishnan (1993) studied the atmospheric a tide gauge data and
conrmed a rise of sea level by 8 cm with a corresponding fall in the pressure during
1901-40.
From the above studies it is clear that the global warming threat is real and the
consequences of the climate change phenomena are many, and alarming. The impact of
future climatic change may be felt more severely in developing countries such as India
whose economy is largely dependent on agriculture and is already under stress due to
current population increase and associated demands for energy, fresh water and food. In
spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change and its possible
impacts particularly on regional scales, measures must be taken to anticipate, prevent or
minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects.
Unnikrishnan et al. (2006) estimated sea level rise at selected stations to be around 10
cm per century. Such prediction has been made by analyzing past tide gauge data (Table 8).
The estimation for sea level rise for four major cities like Mumbai, Kochi, Vishakhapatnam
and Chennai were 0.78, 1.14, 0.75 and -0.65 mm/year respectively. However, these
estimations did not include rates of vertical land movements. These estimations are much
below than the global average sea level rise predicted by IPCC. This study also analysed
the effects of climate change on the frequency distributions and intensities of tropical
disturbances in northern Indian Ocean. The study used regional climate models which
have ner resolution than Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) used
by IPCC. The model was run for two basic conditions. The rst case was for control GHG

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 55
where its emission was assumed to be constant at the rate of 1990 levels and second case
was for increased GHG run where emission of carbon dioxide is assumed to be increased
by 1 per cent every year from 1990 in a compounded manner. The study concluded that
there has been an increase in intense events of cyclones on Bay of Bengal particularly
during the post monsoon period. Further, the frequency of cyclones in long run was
predicted much higher in case of increased GHG condition when compared to control
GHG condition. Unnikrishnan and Shankar extended this work in 2007 with corrected
observations of sea level rise by including data of vertical land movement. Vertical land
movements are due to two main reasons which are local tectonic activity and Glacial
Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) caused by post-glacial rebound of land. However due to less
number of observations and inconsistency in data, they could not predict sea level rise at
Kandla and Okha ports in Gujarat. However, they could predict sea level rise for six major
ports namely, Aden, Karachi, Mumbai, Kochi, Vishakhapatnam and Diamond Harbour
(Kolkata). The following tables indicate the estimates of these six stations.
Table 8: Sea Level Rise Projected at Various Stations in India
Source: Unnikrishnan and Shankar
Station Period
of
analysis
Number
of years
of data
availability
Trends in
relative
sea level
rise(mm
yr
-1
)
Confidence
limit (%)
GIA
correction
(mm yr
1
)
Net
sea
level
rise
(mm
yr
-1
)
Sea level
rise from
reco
nstruction
estimates
(mm yr
-1
)
Aden 1880-1969 58 1.21
0.16(1.16)
99 -0.16 1.37 2.13
Karachi 1916-92 44 0.61 0.32
(0.46)
90 -0.45 1.06 1.94
Mumbai 1878-1993 113 0.77 0.08 99 -0.43 1.20 2.06
Kochi 1939-2003 54 1.31 0.23
(0.73)
99 -0.44 1.75 1.68
Vishakhapatnam 1937-2000 53 0.70 0.28 95 -0.39 1.09 2.42
Diamond Harbour 1948-2004 55 5.22
0.43(0.56)
99 -0.52 5.74 4.87
56

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Data shows that the maximum sea level rise is estimated at Kolkata station with 4.87
mm per year and lowest at Kochi with 1.68 mm per year. On an average Indian sea level
rise estimated by them remained 1.29 mm per year. They concluded that the estimated
trend for Northern part of Indian Ocean observed by them is consistent and comparable
to that of global estimates reported by IPCC. A study carried out by TERI, in the following
Table 9 shows the areas which are likely to be inundated and population affected living
on coastal areas. (Aggarwal D. and Murari L. )
Table 9: Effects of 1 m Sea Level Rise on Indias Coastal Area and Population
Agriculture
Global warming may also threaten India food security if there is a negative effect on
agriculture. The rising temperatures and carbon dioxide and uncertainties in rainfall
associated with global warming may have serious direct and indirect consequences
on crop production. It is, therefore, important to have an assessment of the direct
and indirect consequences of global warming on different crops especially on cereals
contributing to the food security (Gadgil et al., 1995, 1999a, b). Mechanistic crop growth
models are now routinely used for assessing the impacts of climate change. There are
several crop models now available for the same crop that can be employed for impact
assessment of climate change (Mall and Aggarwal, 2002). Crop models, in general,
integrate current knowledge from various disciplines including agrometeorology, soil
physics, soil chemistry, crop physiology, plant breeding, and agronomy, into a set of
mathematical equations to predict growth, development and yield of a crop (Aggarwal
State / UT Coastal area (m ha) Likely
to be inundated
Population (million)
Likely to be inundated
Andhra Pradesh 0.055 0.617
Goa 0.016 0.085
Gujarat 0.181 0.441
Karnataka 0.029 0.25
Kerala 0.012 0.454
Maharastra 0.041 1.376
Orissa 0.048 0.555
Tamil Nadu 0.067 1.621
West Bengal 0.122 1.6
Andaman and Nicobar 0.006 0
Total 0.571 7.1

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 57
and Kalra 1994; Hoogenboom, 2000). In most climate change applications, long-term
historical weather data are used as input for the crop models. In general, at least 30
years of historical weather data are preferred to represent annual weather variability;
different climate change scenarios can then be applied to these data records. The
simplest approach is to assume a xed climate change and to modify the data with
a constant number, such as an increase or decrease of 1, 2, 3
o
C, etc. for temperature.
Similarly, rainfall and solar radiation can be changed with a certain percentage, such as
an increase or decrease of 10, 20, 30 per cent, etc. These changes are then applied to the
daily water data and the crop simulation models are run with these modied inputs. A
more realistic approach is to use the outputs from the Global Climate Models (GCMs)
to modify the historical weather data (Lal et al., 1998; Hoogenboom, 2000; Mall et al.,
2004).
Several studies projected increase or decrease in yields of cereal crops (rice, wheat,
maize and sorghum), Oilseed and pulses crops (soybean, groundnut, chickpea and pigeon
pea) depending on production environment, season and location in India (Mall et al.
2006; Aggarwal et al., 2003; 2008; 2010). Although the effect of climate change on crop
productivity could be biased depending upon the uncertainties in crop models used for
impact assessment, climate change scenarios, region of study, technological changes
and the agronomic management, the integrated assessment of climate change impact
on different sectors of Indian economy is very important to determine future strategies
for sustainable development, adaptation and other policy decisions. Such an assessment
on agriculture and therefore policy response to manage climate change impacts will not
be complete unless the biophysical, environmental and socioeconomic sectors of agro-
ecosystems are studied together.
Forests
Climate impact assessments using BIOME-3 model and climate projections for the
year 2085 show 77 per cent and 68 per cent of the forested grids in India are likely to
experience shift in forest types under A2 and B2 scenario, respectively. Indication show
a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeastern region and drier forest types in
the northwestern region in the absence of human inuence. Increasing atmospheric
CO
2
concentration and climate warming could also result in a doubling of net primary
productivity under the A2 scenario and nearly 70 per cent increase under the B2 scenario
(Sathaye et al., 2006, Current Science).
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Human Health
Public health depends on availability of enough food, safe drinking water, a decent home
protection against disasters, a reasonable income and good social and community relations
(WHO, 2003). Climate change is projected to affect all of those factors. This could include
direct health impacts such as heatstroke and indirect impacts such as increased diarrhea
risk from water contamination via ooding, or higher risk of mortality from the impact
of large-scale loss of livelihoods. Major nutritional health impacts are projected via crop
failure caused by drought, loss of rain-dependent non-irrigated crops and especially from
high night temperatures reducing cereal yields. These impacts are projected to adversely
affect a very large number of people because a signicant portion of Indias GDP derives
from agriculture (World Bank, 2010).
Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions may become malaria-
prone and the duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in
northern and western states and shorten in southern states (Sathaye et al., 2006).
There is evidence of increasing malaria prevalence throughout India (NVBDCP, 2007).
This is thought to stem partially from economic development (which changes vector
dynamics and human migration patterns) and partially from climate change, where
recent models predict the spread of malaria into new regions in the 2050s and 2080s
(Bhattacharya et al., 2006). Any spread of malaria in India will expose large populations
to the disease (Hays et al., 2004). A recent estimate suggests an annual incidence of
malaria as high as 83 million cases per year (Korenromp, 2005). Garg et al. (2009)
integrated climate change variables (i.e. temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme
events etc.) and development variables (i.e. income levels, institutional mechanism
to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote
malarial breeding grounds etc.) in articulating a framework for integrated impact
assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study.
The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce
the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes
also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and
therefore they produce a negative impact on the system.
Desertication
Globally, about 1900 m ha of land are affected by land degradation, of which 500 m ha
each are in Africa and the Asia-Pacic and 300 m ha in Latin America. Climate change
leading to warming and water stress could further exacerbate land degradation, leading

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 59
to desertication. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertication (UNCCD)
aims to address problem of land degradation, which is linked to climate change (Sathaye
et al., 2006).
Applying Information on Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
The implication of climate change for disaster risk reduction is simply to take account of the
scientic information on climate trends, particularly regarding extremes. This means that
organisation working on disaster risk reduction need to establish linkages with institutes
that can provide them with that information such as India Meteorological Department or
international centre for expertise. These scientic institutes should also reach out to the disaster
risk reduction community and assist in the optimal application of the climatic information
they produce. In some instances, information will indicate that particular hazards (heat wave,
drought, ood and intense cyclone) might become more frequent or more intense; disaster
risk reduction efforts could plan for that (IPCC, 2007). Such linkages may also provide access
to the rapidly improving international capacity in seasonal forecasting, which provides
increasingly reliable probabilistic forecasts of average temperature and rainfall, as well as risks
of extremes, with lead time of a few months up to a year.
While such information is important, climate change will also create surprises, as part
of the generally increased variability. After a severe drought has hit a particular region,
and especially if trends also suggest greater drought risk, it makes sense to start reducing
vulnerability to droughts, making use of the window opportunity for risk reduction
that opens after a disaster has happened. However, the next disaster might also be an
unprecedented ood. Disaster risk reduction efforts should, particularly in their public
communication strategies, take account of the possibility of such surprises, and be
careful not to see short-term trends in one category of disasters as providing a consistent
projection of future climate change.
While we are focusing on weather extremes, several gradual trends also have
signicant impacts on natural disasters. For one, sea-level rise-projected to be between
9 and 88 centimeters until 2010- will greatly affect disaster risks in many coastal areas,
partly because it will increase the physical risk of a particular amount of ooding but also
because it (and broader climate change ) may reduce resilience of coastal ecosystem, such
as coral reefs. In other areas of the world, climate changes will exacerbate water shortage
and decrease potential crop yields. In cases especially when systems are stretched to their
limits of tolerance (previous disasters, conicts, HIV/AIDS or other factors), a relatively
mild drought can suddenly have very considerable impact (IPCC, 2007).
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The key message is that disaster risk reduction must embed the new information on
climate change in a much broader analysis, which primarily assesses all key elements in
vulnerability to these hazards, as well as response options to address that vulnerability.
Adaptive Measures, Concepts, Policy Options and Future Actions
In a parallel but inter related process global community has also been deliberating on the
concepts, strategies and action plan for adopting to the impacts of climate change that
have now become irreversible. Our agricultural, water management, livelihood system
and lifestyle must adapt to the changing climate conditions before it is too late for our
survival. Adaptation has been dened as adjustment in ecological, social or economic
systems in response to actual or expected stimuli and their impacts. This term refers
to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential damages or to
benets from opportunities associated with climate change ( IPCC).
Key components of adoptive capacity include the ability to understand, the implications
of climate change related hazards, vulnerability to the hazards due to natural resource
stresses, livelihood issues and developmental needs, along with socio-economic issues,
thus adjusting to the changing scenarios and needs for long-term sustainable development.
Records of past climate and hydrological conditions are no longer considered to be reliable
guides to the future. The design and management of both structural and non-structural
systems should allow for the possible effects of climate change, but little professional
guidance is available in this area. Further research by meteorologists, hydrologists, civil
engineers, water planners, health professional, are needed to ll this gap, as is broader
training of scientists in the universities/institutions.
Adaptation Versus Mitigation
It is some time hard to distinguish between the two technical policy options viz.
mitigation and adaptation options available to counter greenhouse warming and their
possible feedback. Mitigation options are those that reduce the net emission of GHGs
into the atmosphere, either by reducing GHG emissions or by increasing the sinks for
GHGs. Adaptation options focus on reducing the expected damage caused by rapid
climate change by combating the detrimental effects.
Whereas mitigation policies can have only a long-term global impact on greenhouse
damage that is, by reducing carbon emissions or increasing carbon uptake, altering
the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, and thus possibly creating certain
favourable global climate consequences and reducing global damage in the long-term

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 61
adaptation policies generally have a positive direct impact in the short-termfor those
who implement these policies. One example of adaptation is the role of mangrove species
acting as a bioshield to reduce the destructive potential of cyclone and tsunami became
evident during the Orissa Super Cyclone in October 1999 and the Indian Ocean Tsunami
in December 2004 (Keshvan and Swaminathan, 2006).
Need to Deal with Adaptation Measures
As argued earlier, the global warming is likely to occur in the next century, although it
can be delayed somewhat by abatement policies. Society should realise that damage due
to global warming will take place, irrespective off current actions. What climate change
patterns will look like is still highly uncertain, even though our knowledge about this is
constantly improving. Many developments seem possible, even much slower scenarios
or low probability surprise scenarios in which the climate will change to a much greater
extent and much faster than general consensus indicators, due, for example, to melting
of the west Antarctic ice sheet, Gangotri glacier and structural changes in ocean currents.
For this reason, one can not rely on the abatement alone, but must soon prepare
for adaptation. This explains why the important role of the adaptation policies is being
increasingly recognised, and why the search for more information about cost and benets
of such policies is accelerating. This is specially so because of growing evidence that
damage due to climate change (e.g. in agriculture) is highly sensitive to the availability of
low-cost adaptation measures. However, still there are no comprehensive surveys of the
adaptation options and their costs, probably because adaptation covers such a broad range
of potential actions and also because of the large uncertainty surrounding these options.
The literature on this subject is limited but growing. In any case, it is obvious that society
already encounters large costs in adapting to climate extremes; climate change will only
increase these costs. When talking about adaptation, one must several key questions in
mind(a) what effects to adapt to, (b) how to adapt, and (c) when to adapt.
(A) What Effects to Adapt?
Adaptation to different degrees and in different forms may be necessary to cope with
ecosystem changes that are closely related to human (economic, social, political,
legal and cultural) activities, depending upon sequence, severity, and importance of
impact. Changes in temperature and related amount of rainfall may lead to droughts
or heavy rains leading to oods in different places, thus affecting country surface water
and groundwater availability, which in turn will affect agronomic practices and crop
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production. As discussed in previous sections, sheries and forestry will be affected by
changes in temperature and the availability of and quality of water. Livestock population
and output may change due to, among other things, extreme temperature. The animal and
human health will be also affected. Climate change may cause an accelerated rise in the
sea level, possibly accompanied by oods or cyclone, changes in regional temperature, an
increase in storm and change in the runoff of river water due to changing precipitations.
(b) How to Adapt?
To answer this question, let us rst focus on the issue of how to adapt to sea level rise.
Generally, such adaptation will take the form of retreat, accommodation, or protection.
The pattern of adapting to changing river water discharge is similar to the pattern of
adapting to a rise in sea level.
Adaptation to changing temperatures involves adjustments in health care, heating
and cooling, and house hold activities, improvement in infrastructure, and adaptation
of agriculture and sheries. Improving infrastructure involves irrigation/water storage
systems, including (small) dams, drainage and sewer system, dikes and locks, as well
as urban construction. In agriculture, various technical responses are available, such as
changes in crop variety; changes in irrigation, fertilisers, and drainage; change in crop
management; and change in farming strategies. Some salt-tolerant crops, for example can
be grown successfully along the shoreline of coastal deserts irrigated with ocean water.
(C) When to Adapt?
Implementing no-regrets adaptation options now such as developing drought and high
temperature-resistant crops and techniques, and of weighing the implementation of
mitigation options now against adaptation options in the future.
Indias Climate Change Policy
The Government in India is actively involved with climate change activities since long.
India is a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).
The Eight session of the Conference of Parties (COP-8) to the UN convention on Climate
Change in 2002, New Delhi ended here with a Delhi Declaration has successfully resolved
the technical parameters necessary for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (1997).
The Delhi declaration gave primacy for the implementation of the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) in the climate change process. The National Clean Development

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 63
Mechanism Authority is operational since December 2003 to support implementation
of CDM projects. The Bali Conference on climate change (December 2009) showed all
the countries the way forward to the next phase of the campaign to control the planets
changing climate, the specic objective being to put a multilateral arrangement in place
that will succeed the 1997, Kyoto Protocol of the UN convention on Climate Change,
which will terminate in 2012. The Bangkok meeting (March 2008) was the beginning of
the new process, which was continued in December 2009 at Copenhagen.
To address the future challenges, in June 2007, the Government announced the
constitution of a high-level advisory group on climate change and prepared a National
Action Plan on Climate Change and that was released by the Honble Prime Minister of
India on June 30, 2008 (http:/pmindia.nic.in/Climate%20Change_16.03.09.pdf); which
is in line with the international commitments and contains eight missions on climate
mitigation and adaptation (NAPCC, 2008). Now relevant ministries are preparing and
submitting their respective plans to the Prime Ministers Climate Change Council. One
of the missions National Water Mission will be mounted to ensure integrated water
resource management helping to conserve water, minimise wastage and ensure more
equitable distribution both across and within states. The mission will take into account
the provisions of National Water Policy and develop a framework to optimise water uses
and by increasing water use efciency by 20 per cent through regulatory mechanism
and differential entitlements and pricing. It will seek to ensure that considerable share
of water needs or urban areas are met through recycling of waste water, and ensuring
that the water requirements of coastal cities with inadequate alternative sources of water
are met through adoption of new and appropriate technologies such as low temperature
desalination technologies that allow for the use of ocean water (Singh et al., 2009).
Understanding about Climate change adaptation is still growing. In India, many
regions and sectors, climate change impact assessment is yet to be completed. The
projection of rainfall scenario over north eastern region (Assam and Bihar) of the country
is not satisfactory. Given that climate change assessment is still going on. There is need
to develop and strengthen the climate change adaptation process which depend on more
analysis of the resilience livelihood and the policies that impact on livelihood and people
capacities. Society already encounters large costs in adapting to climate extremes; climate
change will only increase these costs. There are several policies already existing to address
adaptation to climate variability, however there is need to study these policies and their
impact on communities capacities to adapt to climate change in Assam and Bihar.
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Given our limited understanding of climate change, extending the range of adaptation
strategies seems worthwhile. In this respect, special attention should be given to the
following:
1. Alternative livelihood
2. Capacity Building: To educate people about the effects of their activities on carbon-
trapping and about possible responses to the effects of natural climatic variability and
potential climate changes in the future.
3. Changes in land-use allocation, including the development of new plant species:
Since most of the worlds plant food comes from just 20 species, the potential of the
majority of species still need to develop.
4. Food security policies and reduction of post harvest losses: Post-harvest losses, due to
decient systems of storage and transport, amount to 50 per cent or more in many
states, which means that there is ample room for improvement.
5. Conversion to Controlled-Environment Agriculture: May invest billion of rupees in
a year.
6. Water resource management: Areas where large changes in rainfall regimes e.g. increased
frequency and severity of oods or drought. An improved and more environmentally
sound infrastructure will be necessary and policies encouraging water conservation
(e.g. pricing mechanisms) will have to be introduced.
Based on the this current study, it may be mentioned that for long-term adaptation
from Climate Variability and Climate Change, several policy instruments are available at
different levels and these instruments are functioning in real sense even at the remote
village levels but needs improved governance, productivity and accountability of the
government machinery. Conversely, over the last two decades there has been a sharp
decline in the quality of services provided by the government to its citizens, especially
poor.
Institutional Setup for Disaster Management in India
Disaster management in India has evolved from an activity-based setup to an
institutionalized structure; from single faculty domain to a multi-stakeholder setup; and
from a relief-based approach to a multi-dimensional approach for reducing risk. The
beginnings of an institutional structure for disaster management came during British
period following the series of disasters that hit the country. These were the Famines

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 65
of 1900, 1905, 1907 and 1943, and the Bihar-Nepal Earthquake of 1937. Over the past
century, the structure for managing disasters in India has undergone substantive changes
in its composition, nature and policy.
The emergence of a permanent and institutionalised setup began in the decade of
1990s. The disaster management cell was established under the Ministry of Agriculture,
following the declaration of the decade of 1990 as the International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) by the UN General Assembly. Further, India witnessed
series of disasters such as Latur Earthquake (1993), Malpa Landslide (1994), Orissa
Super Cyclone (1999) and Bhuj Earthquake (2002) which reoriented the policy action
and led to the shift from nancing relief to a holistic approach for addressing disaster
management. Consequently, the disaster management division was shifted under the
Ministry of Home Affairs in 2003 and a hierarchical structure for disaster management
evolved in India. Shifting from relief and response, disaster management in India started
to address the issues of early warning systems and forecasting and monitoring setup for
various weather related hazards. Consequently, a structure for ow of information, in
the form of warnings, alerts and updates about the oncoming hazard, also emerged
within this framework.
In 2002, a High Powered Committee Report on Disaster Management recommended
establishment of a separate institutional structure for addressing disasters and enactment
of a suitable law institutionalising disaster management. Further, the 10th Five Year Plan of
India (2002-07) identied the need for disaster management interventions beyond merely
nancing relief. The plan stressed on the need for integrating disaster management with
development process. The Status Report on Disaster Management (2004) also identied
that development, to be sustainable, has to take into account the disaster mitigation needs.
These developments necessitated institutionalisation of disaster management framework
in India and consequently, the Disaster Management Bill was presented in the Parliament
in 2004. The Bill was adopted in August 2005. Following the implementation of the Bill,
the National Disaster Management Authority was set up in 2005. Disaster management
came to be identied as continuous and integrated process of planning, organising,
coordinating and implementing measures required for preventing disasters, mitigating
the risk, capacity building, increasing the preparedness levels, response actions, disaster
assessments, evacuation, rescue and relief and rehabilitation. The Disaster Management
Bill facilitated mainstreaming disaster management in many ways; rstly, by mandating
the involvement of various development-related sectors in the disaster management
framework, and secondly, by directing them to prepare and execute disaster management
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plans in their respective sectors of functioning, thirdly, by making provisions for separate
resource allocation for managing disasters, in form of the Disaster Mitigation Funds, and
fourthly by facilitating training of persons for disaster management through the National
Institute for Disaster Management.
In this structure, National Disaster Management Authority is the nodal authority for
all disaster management actions in the country. It is the policy making body that frames
broad guidelines for the other ministries at the centre and authorities at the state level.
The state authorities further lay down the guidelines for ministries and departments at
the state level and the districts falling in their respective jurisdictions. Similarly, district
authorities direct the civil administration, departments and local authorities such as the
municipalities, police department and civil administration. The Executive Committees at
each level are responsible for execution of the tasks envisaged by the Authorities.
Institutionalization of Climate Change and Disaster Management Research
The Indian subcontinent and the surrounding seas, with more than 1.3 billion people and
unique natural resources, have a signicant impact on the regional and global environment
but lack a comprehensive environmental observational network. Within the government
of India, the Department of Science and Technology (DST) has proposed lling this gap
by establishing INDOFLUX, a coordinated multidisciplinary monitoring network that
integrates terrestrial, coastal, and oceanic environment (Sundareshwar et al., 2007).
Capacity building, networking and resource management form the core of
institutionalizing Indian Climate risk management initiatives. This involves a shared
vision for policy relevant climate risk research, scientic knowledge and understanding
enhancement, institutional capacity strengthening (enhanced instrumentation, modeling
tools, data synthesis and data management), technical skill enhancement of climate
change and disaster management researchers, interagency collaboration and networking
improvement, and medium to long-term resource commitment
Sporadic research efforts are continuing in India since the last decade; independent
climate change research initiatives by government ministries like MoEF, MoWR, MoHFW,
MoA, MoST etc; and the NATCOM project ; apart from a few initiatives at individual
experts and institute level. These are the potential partners and future centers for climate
change research. It has to be our endeavor to broaden the existing networks to include all
these research initiatives, while simultaneously expanding the horizon to other research
disciplines. The National Institute of Disaster management (NIDM) has been at apex
level dedicated to research and capacity development for disaster risk reduction. NIDM

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 67
is networking with various research, training and extension agencies to develop sector
specic training modules. NIDM would be happy to collaborate/network with the above
agencies and others working on the climate change and disaster management issue,
which is very starting level at present in NIDM.
Tasks Ahead to Address Vulnerability and Adaptation
The key tasks to address vulnerability and adaptation may be viewed in the matrix of
strategies and geographical hierarchy. Climate change is a long-term issue, that is, the
change in climatic parameters and their impacts would continue to exacerbate over
time. Therefore, the type and intensity of interventions would enhance with expiry of
time. The IPCC assessment provides scenarios that span of country. The tasks, hence,
could be delineated keeping in view a century long horizon. Strategically, the tasks are
derived from a long-term perspective, though practically the policy and stakeholder
actions are relevant only in the short run. We therefore propose only the immediate,
that is, near-term, task to keep adjusting to the advancing knowledge of climate change
and disaster management, emerging technologies and arising signals from the global
policy regime.
Capacity Development or Capacity Building
Within a decade, the immediate tasks are to enhance capacity for scientic assessment,
awareness among the stakeholders and institutionalization of learning process. The
capacity development is a key area here. The convergence between disaster risk reduction
and climate change adaptation is most common, but ironically such a synergy in approach
in capacity development has not been forthcoming necessitating renewed understanding,
dialogue and partnerships among key institutions.
While scientic knowledge and research have enriched our understanding of disasters
and climate change, at the local level the communities have inherited local knowledge
and wisdom developed through shared experiences of centuries. Therefore, a reservoir
of local capacity is already available, which needs to be acknowledged, understood,
analysed, utilised and integrated with modem scientic knowledge. Hence, capacities
need not be built from a scratch, it has to be developed on the existing foundation,
through a critical analysis of the existing capacities, gaps in the capacities and specic
approaches to be taken in the development of the capacities to address to the needs of
climate change adaptations.
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Summary and Conclusion
These studies are still in infancy and a lot more data both in terms of eld information is
to be generated. This will also facilitate the appropriate validation of the simulation for
the present scenarios. However, by above studies it is clear that the global warming threat
is real and the consequences of the climate change phenomena are many, and alarming.
The impact of future climatic change may be felt more severely in developing countries
such as India whose economy is largely dependent on agriculture and is already under
stress due to current population increase and associated demands for energy, fresh water
and food. In spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change and
its possible impacts particularly on regional scales, measures must be taken to anticipate,
prevent or minimise the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects.
Given that, the current simulation results from GCMs are still considered uncertain.
Present GCMs ability in predicting the impact of climate change on rainfall is still
not promising. In addition, the uncertainty involved in predicting extreme ood and
drought events by the models are large. Also, there is no clear role of global warming in
the variability of monsoon rainfall over India. Therefore, it is difcult, at this juncture,
to convince the water planning and development agencies to incorporate the impact
of climate change into their projects and water resources systems. However, given the
potential adverse impacts on water resources that could bring about climate change, it is
worthwhile for the authority to conduct more in-depth studies and analyses to gauge the
extent of problems that the country may face.
Government should face a dilemma as to what extent they would focus on mitigation
or adaptation strategies. Mitigation strategies basically try to deal with the causes of
climate change; adaptation strategies deal with the consequences only. The dilemma is
now twofoldFirst, the impact of mitigation will be felt only in the long-term, at least
if the secondary benets (decrease in local pollution or the preservation of biodiversity),
which usually have a more immediate effect are disregarded. The impact of adaptation
is generally more immediate, or at least is felt in the relatively short-term. Second, the
impact of mitigation will be global and may therefore accrue mainly to parts of the
world other than those where the mitigation action is implemented. In contrast, the
effects of adaptation will commonly direct benets. Those who have invested in the
adaptation activities. Both aspects of the dilemma lead to free-rider problem associated
with mitigation strategies. Unless this problem is solved, it may well create a serious bias
in favour of adaptation.

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 69
Acknowledgement:
The authors are grateful to P.G. Dhar Chakrabarti, IAS, Executive Director, National
Institute of Disaster Management, for encouraging them for this study.
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Abstract
An attempt has been made to generate the scenario of intensity map using 1897 Shillong plateau
earthquake of maximum surface magnitude (Ms) 8.7 at a shortest epicentre distance of 48 km
from different source sites of Guwahati city, Assam, India. We have generated four different
intensity maps for minimum threshold magnitude 5.0 and up to 8.0 by increasing earthquake
magnitude at the increment of 1.0 for each case. The study area bounded between longitude
91
0
30
/
- 91
0
50
/
E and latitude 26
0
05
/
- 26
0
12
/
N is divided into 251 numbers of square grids
of equal size of dimension 1 km x 1 km. These grids fall on the land used area only. The river
Brahmaputra passing across the central part of the city, hills and valley are not incorporated in
this study. In each grid we have provided the soil amplication factor from the recent published
geotechnical investigation information. The seismic intensity at the site is found to be dependent
upon the source, path, and site effects. To address the issue of dependency of intensity on these
factors we have used appropriate attenuation relationship to estimate Peak Ground Acceleration
(PGA) for each grid for the entire study area by deploying Risk Assessment tools for Diagnosis
of Urban areas against Seismic disaster (RADIUS). The PGA values converted into Modied
Marcalli Intensity (MMI) scale and intensity variation of different thematic maps are generated
for variable magnitudes vary from M 8.0 to M 5.0 for the entire area. These generated intensity
maps for different magnitude of earthquakes reveal the variation of shaking over the area
associated with different types of local soil under diverse geological conditions. The average PGA
is calculated for earthquake of surface wave magnitude (Ms) 8.7 at ve different benchmark sites
-COTTON, AMTRON, IRRIG, AEC and IITG are 0.7 g, 0.4 g, 1.0 g, 0.6 g and 0.5 g respectively.
Past and Present Seismic Intensity
Scenario of Guwahati City, Assam,
North East India
H.S. Mandal, A.K. Shukla, Mriganka Ghatak,
Rajnish Ranjan and O.P. Mishra
H.S. MANDAL, A.K. SHUKLA, MRIGANKA GHATAK, RAJNISH RANJAN, AND O.P. MISHRA
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These results are comparable with work done by previous studies. We have also generated the
scenario of thematic intensity maps for the lesser magnitude of M 8.0, M 7.0, M 6.0 and M
5.0 to get an idea about the level of disaster associated due to the minimum magnitude to
optimum magnitude. The study revealed that eight numbers of earthquakes near Oldham fault
are comparable with the seismic zone factor for maximum magnitude earthquake over the area.
Key words: NE-India, Great Assam Earthquake, Guwahati, RADIUS, Peak Amplication
Factors, PGA, Scenario Intensity (MMI) Maps.
Seismotectonics and Earthquake shaking Pattern of NE India
Geographically, the North East (NE) India, bounded by latitude 22-30
0
N and longitude
90-100
0
E , is a part of complex tectonic province of India jawed between two major
arcs, the East-West trending Himalayan arc in the north and North South tending Indo-
Burmese arc in the east. Our study area is bounded between longitude 91
0
30
/
- 91
0
50
/
E and latitude 26
0
05
/
- 26
0
12
/
N. The NE region is being over thrust from two sides;
in the NNE along Himalayas and in ESE along the Naga Hills (Figure 1). The intense
seismic activity in the region is attributed to the large scale horizontal crustal movements
(Evans, 1964; Nandy, 2001; Mishra, 2004). The complex tectonics of northeastern India
is ascribed to continent-continent collision along the eastern Himalayan Boundary
Thrust zone, thrusting and strike slip movements related to east ward subduction of the
India lithospheric slab beneath the Burmese Plate in the Burmese-Andaman-Arc System,
Syntaxis zone of Himalayan arc and Burmees arc (Mikhir Hills), Plate boundary zone of
the Shillong Plateau, Assam valley and Bengal basin and Plate boundary zone of Tripura
Mizoram fold belt. The seismotectonic map of northeast region is shown in Figure 1.
Detailed geodynamical study by Nandy (2001) revealed that the Shillong Plateau in the
NW area including Mikhir Hill mostly consists of Precambian crystalline and metamorphic
rocks. It forms the basement on which the alluvium and unfolded Tertiary formations of
Assam basin have been deposited. This plateau forms a wedge shaped popped up triangular
crustal block, bounded by Arunachal Pradesh Himalaya towards North, Lohit Himalaya
towards NE, the Indo-Burma folded belt towards east and southeast, Bengal-Burma basin
towards South and Rajmahal-Garo-Sylhet gap towards the west. The Shillong Plateau was
a part of the Indian shield separated out from the peninsular shield and moved to the
east by about 300 km along the Dauki fault (Evans, 1964). The mighty Brahmaputra River
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PAST AND PRESENT SEISMIC INTENSITY SCENARIO OF GUWAHATI CITY, ASSAM, NORTH EAST INDIA
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 79
separates the Shillong Plateau from the Himalaya located to its north. The E-W segment
of the river at the northern boundary of the Shillong Plateau is known as Brahmaputra
Fault (Nandy, 2001). The southern boundary of the Shillong Plateau is separated by the
E-W trending Dauki fault and to its south by the Bengal basin. The NW-SE trending Kopili
lineament separates Mikir massif, a part of the Shillong massif (Dube et al., 1986; Nandy,
2001). The Shillong plateau was the source area for the 1897 Great Shillong earthquake of
surface wave magnitude Ms 8.7 (Evans, 1964; Nandy, 2001).
Figure 1: Seismotectonic map of Northeast India region
(after Evans, 1964 and Krishna, 1960)
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The complex tectonic and geological setup of the region and intense continental
convergence of northward moving Indian plate and presence of several lineaments/
faults in Brahmaputra basin, Shillong plateau and neighbourhood regions makes the
whole of northeast India seismically very active (Figure 2). The recent compilation of
past greater damaging earthquakes and their relationship with crustal heterogeneities
by Mishra (2004) for entire NE India suggested that the region experienced several
damaging earthquakes other than the 1897 mega earthquake (M 8.7), amongst which
were: the 1869 Cachar earthquake (M 7.6); the 1918 Srimangal earthquake (M 7.6); the
1930 Dhubri earthquake (M 7.1); the 1943 Brahmaputra Valley earthquake (M 7.2); and
the 1950 Arunachal Pradesh-China broader earthquake M 8.7). The 3-D seismic imaging
of the NE India suggested that geneses if these earthquakes had strong bearing on the
structural heterogeneities besides the known exposed seismogenic faults in the region.
The recent signicant earthquake in the region occurred in August 1988 near Manipur
Burma boarder region and caused some damage and loss of life. The degree of damage
due to the great Assam earthquake of June 12, 1897 was the catastrophic earthquake ever
witnessed in India (Oldham, 1898). Its epicenter track circumscribed Shillong plateau
where there was considerable damage to lives and property. Intensity X+ in MMI scale
was estimated in the Shillong , Golpara and the city of Guwahati in the mezoseismal zone
area. Along Chidrang fault, 19 km long surface rupture with an upthrow of 10m was
reported. Over 1,600 lives were lost. There was almost total destruction of all brick and
stone buildings in all the principal towns of Assam including Sylhet, Gopalpar, Guwahati,
Dhubri and Shillong. The damage spread over an area of 3,71,200 sq km and earthquake
shaking was felt over an area of 4.48 million sq km. Even visible waves were seen at a
number of places Viz. Shillong, Magaldai and Nalbari. The horizontal ground acceleration
estimated from Wess formula were 1,200 mm/sec
2
in Silchar, 2,700mm/sec
2
, 3,000 mm/
sec
2
in Cherrapunji and 4,200 mm/sec
2
in Shillong, Sylhet and Goalpara (Tandon and
Srivastava, 1974).
The area witnessed strong ground shakings that caused devastating earthquakes
in the region. The earlier earthquake showed unique record with strong displacement
witnessing a throw of 18 m along fault rupture caused severe landslides in the hills, besides
development of several ssures beneath the soft ground throughout the epicenter track of
the 1897 mega thrust earthquake (Mw 8.7) (Figure 3). It was also observed that the stream
beds were tilted resulting in changing their path. Even the bed of mighty Brahmaputra
was affected and resulted in unprecedented ood in second half of the year in 1897.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 81
Figure 2: Seismicity map of NE India ( after Kayal, 2003), study area is demarcated
by red square which is falling on seismic zone D. the Big star black is the epicentral
location of 1897 Oldham earthquake of surface magnitude Ms 8.7. The different size of
magnitude and focal depth are marked by respective open and closed circles. Triangles
are represented the state capital, the state capital are written in abbreviated form. Zones
A-E are indicated on the basis of past earthquake spatial distribution over the region. The
Zone A indicated the high potential seismic zone under subduction earthquake followed
by lesser frequency of earthquake zones B-E.
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This earthquake was followed by a very large number of aftershocks scattered apparently
over a large area for rst few days, the earth was hardly at rest. Two of the aftershocks of
June 13, 1897 were very strong and felt over a wide area. The aftershock continued for
10 years. Molnar (1987) inferred an eastward extent of rupture of about 200 km from the
western margin of Shillong plateau. The maximum intensity assessed in the mezoseismal
area was XII which is the highest in the MMI scale so far recorded in the annals of Indian
seismology. Bilham and England (2001) proposed a steep(50
0
) SSE dipping reverse fault
called Oldhams Fault, close to northern topography front of the Shillong Plateau. The
triangulation data (1860, 1898 & 1936) suggested that this proposed geometry deviates
from that of the hitherto accepted fault models. Rajendran et al. (2004) re-examined the
geological and geophysical data which conformed to south dipping structure, but its
location is inferred to be in Brahmaputra basin, further north of the present plateau front.
They inferred that Shillong plateau bounded by major faults behaves as an independent
tectonic component.
Figure 3: The study area marked in a rectangular shape and the location of 1897 earthquake
magnitude M
s
8.7, produced through Google-earth. The epicenter is located about 48 km
SSW from the centre of the city. The COTTON, AMTRON, IRRIG, AEC and IITG sites are
pinpointed inside the study area.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 83
Many researchers have suggested that northeastern region is now due for a large
earthquake. Khettri et al (1983) identied a seismic gap called the Assam Gap. Kayal
(1998) termed this gap as aseismic corridor. The proximity of Guwahati city, capital of
Assam, India to the complex tectonic settings and its location is within the Brahmaputra
Valley, it has become more vulnerable to earthquake risks that may cause severe hazards
to both property and person in the region because of manifold increase of population
and economic activities of the region. Keeping in view and we also know that Guwahati
city is the main economic hub of the seven sister northeast-India, therefore in advance
we need to prepare the future disaster planning. Any earthquake of magnitudes of past
earthquakes if struck the region then there would be unaccountable losses of property and
personnel, besides huge socio-economical losses not only in NE India, but in the entire
South Asian countries located in the vicinity of NE India. Consequently, the development
of a concrete planning of earthquake risk mitigation and preparedness for the region has
become one of the challenging issues of disaster management for South Asia.
Several researchers attempted to evaluate the different seismic parameters and
they established empirical relationships to take preparedness from major catastrophic
earthquake disaster. The most important seismic parameters are (i) source characterisation,
(ii) effect of seismic wave propagation that depends upon the seismic path, and (iii) site
effect, which is universally accepted as variation of site specic characteristics due to the
variation of the 30 m soil thickness. The source characterisation is possible by the method
of moment tensor inversion by least square methods used by Harvard Catalog of Central
moment tensor inversion. The path effect is the study of seismic wave energy attenuated,
indicating the pattern of die down of strength of seismic wave. It also shows how the
seismic wave propagates after occurrence of the earthquake from the source in concentric
circles (wave fronts) to the destination sites (Joyner and Moore, 1981; Campbell, 1985;
Fukushima and Tanaka, 1990).
The site specic investigation is very important in sense to understand how the
seismic wave amplied due to the variations of local soil conditions. In general most of
the cities over the world are situated either very near to the bank of the river or near
to the coastal belts which is seismically hazardous due to soil amplication of alluvium
fan. A good example can be sited from the 1985 Michoacan earthquake that showed
havoc disaster impacts on the Mexico City. The city is about 300-400 km away from
this earthquake source zone. However, the heavy damaged occurred in the Mexican city
during that earthquake. The observed ground motion (PGA, PGV) at the rock sites in
Mexico City was very minimal to cause disaster. However, the strong ground motion
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(PGA, PGV) amplied over the entire city due to the presence of thick alluvium deposits
underlying the city which causes high soil amplication. Keeping in view, the United
National forum declared 1990-2000 as the year of the International Decade for Natural
Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) for prevention of disaster against future earthquakes, thus
the application of science and technology in the disaster risk management has become
a prime task for geoscientists to work towards this for the benet of the people of India.
Development of RADIUS (2000) as a computational software has proved as one of the
milestones in the eld of earthquake risk mitigation for developing countries, which
has been used so far successfully in several countries, such as Addis Ababa, Ethiopia;
Antofagasta, Chile; Bandung, Indonesia; Guayaquil, Ecuador; Izmir, Turkey; Skopje, TFYR
Macedonia; Tashkent, Uzbekistan; Tijuana, Mexico, and Zigong, China.
Prediction of earthquake is still illusory with present state of knowledge because genesis
of earthquake is related to the intrinsic characteristic of causative host rocks. The sudden
release of energy during earthquake causes intensive damage to the property, death of
people due to collapse of building in the area closed to the epicenter. Infrastructural
supports also get crippled during severe earthquake shakings that invites failure of
electricity, communication and lifeline structures, making the area practically cutoff
from the world. Relief and rescue operation in affected area within shortest period of
time say within two to three hours are crucial and can save lives of the people pushed
under the debris. Therefore, to initiate relief and rescue operation and to make best use of
available resources, near real time information of occurrence of earthquake and prediction
of possible damage scenario around the effected area are very important. It is, therefore,
the complete scenario of earthquake intensity and its propagation pattern that can help
in formulating right strategy for earthquake disaster risk mitigation management for the
region.
Guwahati, the capital city of Assam, is the economic hub and fast growing city in NE
India. The seismic hazard of Guwahati and its adjoining areas is mainly controlled by
seismogenic faults beneath Shillong plateau and eastern Himalayan regions, which are
located at about 30-150 km from the city. More precisely the densely populated city is
situated approximately 48 km from NNE of the Oldham Fault which is regarded as the
causative fault of Great Assam earthquake of 1897 (Bilham and England, 2001). This
fault is still active and small to moderate earthquakes are occurring into the fault. As
data related to building typology and structures are scanty in the area, it is, therefore,
in the present study use of site specic amplication factor derived from the present
study and RADIUS (2000), can help us to generate predictive intensity map of Guwahati
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 85
for possible earthquakes of different magnitudes, in case occurred due to movement of
several faults, including the recently identied seismogenic Oldham fault. On occurrence
of earthquake, the predicted ground motion and shaking intensity map in near-real-
time may be generated. These maps may be helpful for local authorities engaged in relief
and rescue operation for planning post-earthquake response and recovery, as well as for
preparedness exercises and disaster planning. On availability of data for built environment
the present study can be extended to generate actual damage scenario on occurrence of
earthquake within the shortest span of time.
Seismic Hazard Microzonation of Guwahati has recently been undertaken and
Amplication factors at different sites have been ascertained. A number of predictive
relationships derived from regression analysis of strong motion data are available for
peak horizontal ground acceleration. RADIUS (2000) is a simple tool developed by OYO
Corporation and OYO International (coded by Geosoft Technical support Singapore and
Risk Management Software India) and available in free domain is used in this study.
Methodology
Grid Parameterisation
The greater Guwahati region covers 251 sq km land surrounded by longitude of 91030-
91050E and of latitude of 26005-26012 N. The population census in the city Guwahati
has reported that rapid urbanisation causes the huge increased population growth since
last few decades. This area is divided in to 251 equal size grid of dimension 1 km x 1 km
using RADIUS (2000) (Figure 4). Variable soil amplications are chosen from the site
(Figure 5).
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Figure 4: The Guwahati city and its land used area which has been divided into total 251
square grids of dimension 1 km x1 km through RADIUS (2000) programme.
Figure 5: Soil type information, categorised on the basis of geotechnical site investigation
of Guwahati city (after Nath et al. 2008). For our convenience we have used the codes
1(green), 2(blue), 3(yellow) and 4(pink). The code 1 has been used for the soil type in the
area of AEC, surrounding IITG and AMTRON areas, the code 2, 3 and 4 correspond to
IITG, COTTON and IRRIG sites respectively.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 87
Attenuation Model
There are three different attenuation relations available (Joyner and Boore (1981),
Campbell (1985) and Fukushima and Tanaka (1990)) in RADIUS (2000). These attenuation
relations are established on the strong ground motion observation on rock sites.
The most frequently used the empirical relation of Fukushima and Tanaka (1990) for
Asian country is as follows:
where, M is the surface wave magnitude of the earthquake, R is the epicentral distances
in kilometer between source and site.
The MMI is calculated using Trifunac & Brady (1975a) formula:
where, PGA is the peak ground acceleration (unit in g) is calculated using Eq.(1) and
Modied Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI) is obtained using Eq. (2).
Data analysis and Results
The study area is divided into 251 grids of dimension of 1km x 1km. From the existing
soil amplication report by Nath et al. (2008) we have grouped the soil amplication
factors such as 2.1 -3.0, 3.1-4.0, 4.1-5.0, 5.1 -6.0 and 6.1-7.0 for the area AMTRON, IITG,
AGC, COTTON, IRRIG (Figure 5). Few high amplication factors (>7.0) were also observed
in the study area, which were not considered in RADIUS software due to unexpected
estimates of PGA and MMI values. The soil amplication factors over the study area
indexed by Code such as 1, 2, 3 and 4. Code 1 represented the area of AGC and IITG area,
Code 2 follows for the area AMTRON area, and Code 3 follows COTTON area and Code 4
for IRRIG area. The active Oldham fault is lying under Shillong-Mikhir Hill. The epicenter
distance is calculated between Oldham fault and the Guwahati city is about 48 km. The
June 12, 1897 Assam earthquake source parameters have latitude 26
0
N and longitude 91
0
E, focal depth of the earthquake varies from 10-15 km (Figure 3).
The attenuation relation of Joyner and Boore (1981) is used to calculate PGA at the
engineering bedrock level (average shear wave velocity up to bottom 30 m depth is
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greater than 760 m/sec) as per criteria of National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program
of USA (NEHRP). The PGA values at the centre of the each grid represent the 1 km x 1
km dimension grids. The soil amplication factors are convolved with the frequency
dependent response spectra of rock level and yielded the response at the surface level
and nally Zero Period PGA (ZPA) are obtained at the surface level. These surface PGA
are further converted in to MMI intensity using Trifunac & Brady (1975) relationship,
which generates the spatial variation of MMI intensity scale for all 251 grids and nally
plotted in different color codes represented by a, b, c and d (Figure 6). The intensities are
calculated on the basis of empirical relationship from the PGA values, hence it appear in
decimal, these yielded intensity values decimal points are rounded to its nearest values
and marked roman letter (X, IX, etc) as per MMI scale.
We have adopted similar procedure for generation of the scenario intensity map over
the study area for variable magnitudes from M 8.0 M 6.0 by decreasing magnitude
value 1.0 in each step and produced four such intensity maps (Figure 7). The colour code
of intensity map of Figure 6 is xed for same source, path and site only changing the
numeral values of the intensity in MMI.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 89
Figure 6: Lateral variation of seismic intensity in MMI scale. Table shows the corresponding
colour index of the intensity map generated through RADIUS (2000) programme for
maximum surface wave magnitude 8.7 from the 48 km minimum distance southwest
located Oldham fault. The expected PGA and MMI are shown in the bottom right.
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Figure 7: Output results from RADIUS programme (i)upper left showing the spatial
variation of MMI scale for maximum scenario surface wave magnitude M
s
8.0; (ii) upper
right showing the spatial variation of MMI for maximum surface wave magnitude M
s
7; (iii)
lower left showing the spatial variation of MMI for maximum surface wave magnitude of
M
s
6 and (iv) lower right showing the spatial variation of MMI for maximum surface wave
magnitude of M
s
5 for remarkable ve representative sites of COTTON,AMTRON,IRRIG,AEC
and IITG in the study area.
Conclusions
The results obtained through RADIUS programme reect key information about the
micro-scale hazard analysis of an urban city in a developing country which is located
near to seismically active zone. These spatial variations of MMI scale for the Guwahati
Municipal Corporation and its surrounding region in the state of Assam may be helpful
for the local authorities to implement strategies for vulnerability reduction and disaster
preparedness for future large earthquakes. The lateral variation of MMI intensities is
found to be very heterogeneous in the study area. The intensity varies from IX-X in
MMI for maximum magnitude eight earthquakes. This result is coinciding with the other
researchers work done earlier for relatively wider area. Our estimated intensity variations
are observed maximum in central part of the Municipal area and the southern extended
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 91
part of Guwahati city, where as the eastern part shows the less intensity . The northern
and western parts have moderate intensity with respect to central and southern part of
the study area. In the present study, the average PGA value is about 0.45 for maximum
magnitude earthquake eight and above, which is nearer to the value estimated by Bureau
of Indian Standard (BIS) for northeast India seismic zone-V in the seismozonic map of
India. Different intensity maps of the study area are of immense help for the city planners
and other stakeholders for adopting earthquake risk preventive measures in future.
The architects and engineers can design the structures accordingly by constructing the
earthquake resistance structures. The study of seismic vulnerability of built environment
in India is very useful as well as challenging task because of high population density of
buildings and large variations in their construction typologies and availability of limited
database.
However, in general, how strong the earthquake will be felt at the affected area and
damage to buildings is basically associated with the distance and magnitude of the
earthquake, geology of the region, that is, site condition/amplication and quality of
construction. It varies from place to place and may be estimated in MMI scale which
varies from I-XII scale. Thus making use of result of rst part, that is, Seismic hazard
Microzonation which provides site specic data and available standard software tools
intensity at different places can be predicted immediately on occurrence of earthquake.
These maps may be helpful for local authorities engaged in relief and rescue operation for
planning post earthquake response and recovery, as well as for preparedness exercises and
disaster planning.
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spectra, 1, pp. 759-804.
Dube, R.K., Dattatrayam, R.S., Mathura Singh and Srivastav H.N.(1986) Seismicity of Northeast
India with Reference to the Cacher Earthquake of December, 1984, Proc.
Evans, P. (1964) The Tectonic Framework of Assam, J. Geol. Soc. India, 5, pp. 80-96.
Fukushima, Y. and Tanaka, T., (1990) A New Attenuation Relation for Peak Horizontal Acceleration
of Strong Earthquake Ground Motion in Japan, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 80, pp. 757-783.
Guha, S.K. and Bhattacharya, U. (1984) Studies on Prediction of Seismicity in Northeast India,
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GSI-ATLAS published by Geological Survey of India, (2000).
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Region of the Assam Gap, northeast India, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 73, pp. 459-469.
Mandal, H.S. (2007) A Scenario Earthquake and Estimation of Disaster in the Mega City Delhi A
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Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 95

Abstract
Industrialisation came as a boon to humanity and made it possible for man to have the best
of the comforts that could be materially made available. It developed a new phase of human
relationships and required a different regulatory mechanism than the archaic. Challenges did
it, however, pose in more than one way; the most important being the processes of production of
useful goods through necessary hazardous operations to which there is no alternative. Search for
measures to control damage causation to workers engaged in such processes and people living in
vicinity thereto has become a matter of primary concern. Putting up a legal framework in place
to regulate operation of hazardous industrial units for the safety of workers is the rst step in
this direction. The present paper gives a lucid view of the judicial and legislative trends in India
about developing a legal mechanism for controlling disasters by hazardous industrial processes.
Introduction
The process of industrialisation in any country brings not only growth and prosperity
but also employment, yet it also involves threat to the labourers working in the industry.
This dichotomy of benet and losses requires that there should be clear and direct laws,
rules, regulations and policies to protect the life and dignity of labourers working in
different industries. The industries in the post-modern era are of complex nature due to
scientic and technological development and consequently they could result in serious
hazard to not only the labourers working in an industry but also those who are residing
in the vicinity. The quantum of damage which a modern industry can cause is highly
visible by the Bhopal gas tragedy from which not only the generation which was directly
Industrial Disasters and Labour
Protection in India: An Appraisal of
Judicial and Legislative Action
Zafar Hussain and M. Afzal Wani
ZAFAR HUSSAIN AND M. AFZAL WANI
96

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affected but the generations that followed also remain in peril. It is pertinent to note that
because of industrialisation process in Europe, North America and Japan, there is still
some chance of direct industrial hazard and these countries have developed a protective
mechanism to protect life and property. In this manner, they are largely able to protect
the life and dignity of labourers and also their other rights. In other words, they have
manifested a position of maintaining equilibrium between economic and industrial
growth and rights and interests of workers. Participative management in these regions
provides a solid opportunity to strengthen such protective mechanisms.
The globalisation, privatisation and liberalisation have inuenced the trade all over
the world and hazardous industries are a part of the process for progress and development.
In India as elsewhere, they are a matter of concern as regards the safety of the life of
workers and the people living in their vicinity. Having dealt with the issues, the Judiciary
has by issuing guidelines played a very active role in the safety of the workers in particular
and people in the industrial vicinity in general. In order to protect the life of workers
from death, injury and hazardous process, the Factory Act of 1948 was amended and
a new chapter, namely IVA, has been added to it, which includes provisions relating to
monitoring of hazardous processes. This paper examines the nature of the relevant issues
and gives an appraisal of the legislation and judicial decisions, which have put in place a
legal framework for the protection of workers in hazardous industries.
Nature and Extent of Industrial Disasters
Industrial activity of a society which is also the hallmark of progress poses a challenge
to man. He cannot put a stop to the pace of industrial progress, which is an index
of development and at the same time, he cannot ignore the implications of such
development on the life and liberty of the people (AIR 1987). The developing countries like
India suffer from the acute problem of environmental pollution and industrial disaster
which Mitchell James has dened as threats to people and life support system caused
by mass production of goods and service exceeding human coping capabilities and the
environments absorptive capacities (Mitchell 1996). The denition puts in context the
reality that the modernisation and innovation in industries and rapid growth in chemical
hazards and polluting industries in recent years have not only resulted in unsafe working
conditions but have created problems of safety and occupational health hazards which
not only affect the workers but also the residents of adjacent localities and public at large.
Some examples of that are the incident of re involving ammonium nitrate in France in
October 1987, re involving methane in Italy in April 1987, in Bulgaria; vinyl chloride
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INDUSTRIAL DISASTERS AND LABOUR PROTECTION IN INDIA:
AN APPRAISAL OF JUDICIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ACTION
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 97
explosion of November 1986, explosion involving reworks in the Philippines in April
1986; and chlorine leak in the US in February 1986 (ILO).

In India, Bhopal has become a symbol of industrial disaster, where in 1984, toxic
fumes came out of the pesticide company and due to methyl isocynanides, 3,500 people
lost their lives and over two lakh people suffered injuries of various kinds. This industrial
disaster shook the complacency of the people all over the world and industries started
installing more effective mechanism for preventing the recurrence of disasters of such
magnitude (Times of India 1988). The intensity and seriousness of the damage done by
the industrial activities undertaken by the state agencies and public and private corporate
management are amply illustrated by the Bhopal gas disaster (Leelakrishna ) and the Delhi
gas leakage incident (AIR 1987). A positive development is now the documentation of
such incidents and seriousness of various agencies about them (CSE 1996).
Generally, the industrial accidents are in the form of re, explosion and toxic release.
Accidents involving major hazards include, leakage of ammable material, mixing of
the material with air, formation of a ammable vapor cloud and drifting of the cloud
to a source of ignition, leading to a re or an explosion affecting the site and possibly
populated area, leakage of toxic material, formation of toxic vapour cloud and drifting of
the cloud, affecting directly the site and possibly populated area (Srivastava 2002).
On the release of ammable materials, the greatest danger arises from the sudden
massive escape or volatile liquids or gases, producing a large cloud of ammable and
possibly explosive vapour. If this cloud were ignited, the effects of combustion would
depend on many factors, including wind speed and the extent to which the cloud was
diluted with air. Such hazards could lead to large numbers of casualties and damage on
the site and beyond its boundaries.
In the case of sudden release of large quantity of toxic material, it has the potential
to cause death and severe injuries at a greater distance. In theory, such a release cloud in
certain weather conditions produce lethal concentrations at several kilometres from the
point of release (Srivastava 2002) but the actual number of casualties would depend on the
population density in the path of the cloud.
There are large numbers of chemicals from which particular safeguard needs to be
taken to prevent them from having harmful effects on workers. This is of fundamental
importance to the safety of workers. The effects of toxic chemicals, if released, would
disperse with the wind and have the potential to kill or injure people living many hundreds
of meters away from the plant. The toxicity of chemicals is commonly determined by
using four major methods, that is, incident studies, epidemiological studies, animal
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experiments and micro-organism tests. These methods should be applied with due care
(Srivastava 2002).
The data of toxicity should be continuously produced by appropriate bodies and the
toxicity of serious chemicals should be established. Chlorine, for example, is known to
be dangerous to human health at concentration of 10-20 parts per million (ppm) for
an explosive of 30 minutes. The gas becomes fatal at concentration of 100-150 ppm
with exposure duration of 5 minutes (Srivastava 2002). Like data should be continuously
brought to the knowledge of stake holders.
Judicial Protection of Workers in Disasterous Conditions
In M.C. Mehta vs Union of India (AIR 1987) on December 04, 1985, a major leakage of
oleum gas took place from one of the units of Shriram Food and Fertiliser Industries and
as a result of this leakage a number of persons were affected, both amongst the workmen
and the public. According to the petitioner, an advocate practicing in Tis Hazari Court,
died on account of inhalation of oleum gas. This leakage resulted from the bursting of a
tank containing oleum gas as a result of collapse of the structure on which it was mounted
and it created a scare amongst the people residing in that area. Hardly had the people
got out of the shock of this disaster when within two days, another leakage, though this
time a minor one, took place as a result of escape of oleum gas from the joints of a pipe.
On the legal front, a spate of claim petitions of victims and their dependents seeking
adequate compensation cropped up. The Supreme Court has considered the matter in this
case, that is, in M.C. Mehta vs Union of India (AIR 1987) and in another case Consumer
Education and Research Center vs Union of India (FIR 484) (Asbestos case) and specied
the safety measures to be followed by the Industry. The safety measures include built-in
safety devices and features, personal protective equipment and cautionary boards on the
emission of hazardous chemicals. The court emphasised the need for suitable personal
protective equipment and rst aid measures to workers.
In M.K. Sharma vs Bharat Electronic Ltd. (AIR 1987) (BEL case), the court directed
making provision of a primary protective lead shield, with a secondary shield as back up.
Similarly an interlocking arrangement between the transmitter and primary lead shield is
also called for.
Apart from the direction in all the cases relating to occupation safety and health, the
court ordered medical checkup of workers in hazardous departments. In the BEL and
Asbestos case, the court has appointed specialised agencies to conduct health check-up of
the affected workers and reporting back to the court.
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 99
In M.C. Mehta vs Union of India, (AIR 1987) two committee were appointed by the
court to examine the adequacy of the safety provisions existing in the plant. Similarly
in Rural Litigation and Entitlement Kendra v. State of UP, Known as Doon Valley Lime
Quarries case, (SCC 1985) one expert committee was set-up to examine the ecological
impact of the mines and subsequently second to examine proposals for scientic
management of the mines by certain categories of mine owners. The court ordered that
Chief Inspector of the factory or any Senior Inspector nominated by him or deputed by
the Central Board would inspect the caustic plant at least once a week by a surprise visit.
In case of any lapse on the part of the company the inspector was asked to report to the
concerned ofcer.
The Court directed the management to provide protection to workmen by imparting
training to them in regard to the functioning of the plant and safety devices and directed
the management to deposit 20 lakhs and to furnish the guarantee of 15 lakhs. Failure
to do so would result in withdrawal of permission granted to them to restart the caustic
chlorine plant and other plants.
In M.C. Mehta vs Union of India, (SCC 1985) the Supreme Court of India stepped
ahead of the rule of strict liability laid down in Ryland vs Fletcher (HC 1868) and laid
down a new principle of absolute liability (HC 1868). Bhagwati C.J., stated that where an
enterprise is engaged in a hazardous or inherently dangerous activity with harmful results
to anyone on account of an accident in the operation of such hazardous or inherently
dangerous activity resulting, for example, in escape of toxic gas, the enterprise is strictly
and absolutely liable to compensate all those who are affected by the accident (HC 1868).
To remove any doubt, the court laid down this principle that even the English courts
had not laid down. The basis of this liability was the absolute and non-delegable duty
of such enterprises towards the community to ensure that no harm is caused to anyone
on account of hazardous or inherently dangerous nature of its activity (HC 1868). This
new principle of strict and absolute liability does not make any distinction as to victims
whether they are the employees or not, whether, they were within the premises or
outside. All victims are eligible to claim under the rule. The measure of compensation has
also been correlated to the magnitude and capacity of enterprises. The court laid down
that in the case of larger and more prosperous enterprises, the amount of compensation
should be greater.
In Rural Litigation and Entitlement Kendra vs State of Uttar Pradesh, (AIR 1988) large
scale pollution was caused by lime stone quarries adversely affecting the safety and health
of the people living in the area. The court therefore, appoints a committee for the purpose
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of inspecting certain lime stone quarries. The communities suggested the closure of certain
categories of stone quarries having regard to adverse impact of mining operation therein.
In view of this, the court ordered the closure of certain lime stone quarries. In M.C. Mehta
vs Union of India, (SCC 1988) the issue was that certain tanneries were discharging trade
efuents into the river Ganges. The matter was brought to the notice of the court through
public interest litigation. The Supreme Court found that notwithstanding comprehensive
provisions contained in the Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974 and the
Environmental (Protection) Act, 1986, no effective steps have been taken by the government
to stop the grave public nuisance caused by the tanneries at Jajmau, Kanpur. The court,
therefore, for the protection of people and workers ordered establishment of primary
treatment plants, etc., and such of these industries that did not comply with the direction
were closed.
As observed above in M.C Mehta vs Union of India, (SCC 1988) the Supreme Court
suggested that a high powered authority should be set-up by the Government of India in
consultation with the Central Board for overseeing functioning of hazardous industries
with a view to ensure that there are no defects or deciencies in the design, structure
or quality of any plant and machinery. There should be no negligence in maintenance
and operation of the plant and equipments and necessary safety devices. Instruments
are installed as required and are in operation. Proper and adequate safety standards and
procedures are strictly followed. The Court emphasised the need for evolving a national
policy for location and relocation of hazardous industries in areas where population is
scarce and there is little hazard or risk to the community. The court has observed there
when hazardous industries are located in such area, every care must be taken to see that
large human habitation does not grow around. There should preferably be a green belt of
1 to 5 km width around such hazardous industries (SCC 1988).
While permitting the management in Shriram (AIR 1987) to re-start the caustic chlorine
plant, the court directed the management to obtain an undertaking from the Chairman
and Managing Director of the Delhi Cloth Mills Ltd. and from the other ofcers to the
effect that in case there is any escape of chlorine gas resulting in death or injury to the
workmen or to the people living in the vicinity, they will be personally responsible for
payment of compensation for such death or injury.
Legislative Safeguards for Workers
After the Shriram Oleum Gas Leakage in 1986, which happened just after the Bhopal
disaster, a new chapter, that is, chapter IVA was added to the Factory Act, in 1987 related
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 101
to the running of the industries. Accordingly section 41 A of the Act deals with the
constitution and formation of the site appraisal committee and the powers of the said
committee with regard to (i) location of factory involving hazardous process, and (ii) for
expansion of any such factory. The committee is to examine the application and to submit
its recommendations within ninety days to the concerned state government. It has the
powers to call for any information from the applicant whether for the establishment of a
factory or expansion thereof.
Section 41B of the Factory Act, 1948 enjoins the occupier of every factory involving
a hazardous process to disclose in the prescribed manner all information regarding
dangers. Such dangers include health hazards arising from exposure to or handling of the
materials or substances in the manufacture, transportation, storage and other processes to
the workers employed in the factory. The information furnished by the occupier should
include accurate information as to the quantity, specications and other characteristics
of the waste and the manner of their disposal. He should:
(i) lay down the detailed policy with respect to the health and safety of the workers
employed in the factory involving a hazardous process.
(ii) intimate such policy to the Chief Inspector and the local authority.
(iii) inform to the Chief Inspector and local authorities at prescribed intervals any changes
made in the said policy.
The occupier, with the approval of the Chief Inspector of Factories, is required to draw
up (i) an on-site emergency plan, and (ii) disaster control measures for his factory. He is
also required to make it known to the workers employed and to the general public living
in the vicinity of the factory the safety measures required to be taken in the event of an
accident taking place. Information about the nature and details of the process should
be submitted in the prescribed form and prescribed manner to the Chief Inspector of
Factories, where a factory is engaged in a hazardous process within a period of 30 days
before the commencement of such process. Contravention of these provisions would
result in the cancellation of license. This may be in addition to penalty prescribed under
the Act for violation of its provisions. The occupier of the factory is also required to
lay down measures with prior approval of the Chief Inspector for (a) handling, usage,
transportation and storage of hazardous substances inside the factory premises. (b)
disposal of such substance outside the factory premises; and (c) to publicise them to the
workers and general public living in the vicinity in the manner prescribed under the
Rules framed by the state government.
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Specic responsibility has been imposed upon the occupier of a factory involving
hazardous process under section 41C of the Factory Act, to maintain accurate and up-
to date health records or medical report of the workers in the factory who are exposed
to any chemicals, toxic or other harmful substances which are manufactured, stored,
handled, transported. The records so maintained should be accessible to the workers. The
occupier is bound to appoint qualied and competent persons and having experience in
handling hazardous substances to supervise these safety measures within the factory and
to provide at the working place all the necessary facilities for protecting the workers in
the prescribed manner. He has to provide for medical examination for every worker (i)
before assigning the job, (ii) while continuing in such job, and (iii) after he has ceased to
work in such job. The medical examinations of such person shall be made at intervals not
exceeding 12 months in the prescribed manner.
Section 41-D empowers the Central Government to appoint an Inquiry Committee;
in the event of the occurrence of an extra-ordinary situation, in a factory engaged in a
hazardous process, the central government can appoint an inquiry committee to look
in to the matter. Section 41 D requires that the Inquiry Committee shall consist of a
Chairman and two other members. The terms of reference and tenure of the ofce of its
members shall be determined by the Central Government, according to the requirements
of the situation. The Inquiry Committee is under a duty to Inquire into the standards of
health and safely observed in the factory. The inquiry must be with a view to nd out the
causes of any failure or neglect in the adoption of any measures or standards prescribed
for the health and safety of workers employed in the factory or the general public affected
or likely to be affected due to such failure or neglect, and for prevention and recurrence
of such extraordinary situation in future in such factory or elsewhere. There is, as can be
inferred from this law, requirement of drawing up on-site emergency plans and detailed
disaster control measures for every factory dealing with hazardous materials.
The central government on nding the recommendations of the enquiry committee
as satisfactory may enforce the same if the rules framed by the state government do not
prescribe any standard of safety in respect of the hazardous process or the rules prescribed
are inadequate. This is required expressly by section 41 E of the Factory Act. The work
is to be entrusted to any institution specialized in matters relating to standards of safety
in hazardous process or to the Director General of Factory Adverse Service and Labour
Institute. The Committee is to lay down emergency standards for enforcement of suitable
standards in respect of such hazardous process. The recommendations of the Inquiry
Committee which are advisory in nature, but the emergency standards are deemed to
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 103
have the force of rules made under the Act and are operative till the same are prescribed
by the rules framed by the state government.
Section 41-E deals with the permissible limits of exposure of chemical and toxic
substances in manufacturing process in any factory as is supposed to be indicated in the
second schedule to the Act. There should be a list of chemical substances and details of
their permissible exposure with reference to time. The Central Government can make
suitable changes in the second schedule after proper scientic proof obtained from
specialized institutions or experts.
Workers participation in safety management is dealt with under section 41-G. This
section lays down a duty on the occupier to form a safety committee in a factory where
hazardous substances are used or handled. The safety committee should consist of equal
number of representatives of workers and management. The object of the committee is
to maintain proper safety and health at work and also to review periodically the measures
so taken. The composition of the Committee and the tenure and the duties are to be
prescribed by the State Government in the rules framed by it. The state government
has the power to exempt any factory from setting up the committee after recording its
reasons in writing for the exemption granted.
Under section 41H, the workers employed in a factory involving hazardous process,
have a right to bring it to the notice of the occupier, agent, manager or other person
in charge of the factory about the apprehension that there is likelihood of imminent
danger to their lives or health due to any accident. The said notice or warning may be
given either directly or through their representatives in the Safety Committee. They may
simultaneously bring it to the notice of the Inspector of Factories and on receipt of the
aforesaid warning/notice the occupier, agent, manager or the person in charge of the
factory is required to take immediate remedial action to prevent any imminent danger.
He is also required to report to the nearest Inspector about the action taken by him.
However, if the occupier, agent, manager or person in charge is not satised about the
danger apprehended by workers he has to report it to the nearest inspector for deciding
the question of existence of such imminent danger and his decision shall be nal.
Workers Role
Workers have the essential role of operating major hazardous plants in a safe and
responsible manner. This is so because irrespective of the best efforts of designers and
constructors of chemical plant, safe operation will depend on workers consistently being
aware of the hazardous nature of the materials being processed and stored, and on their
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accepting responsibility for the safety of the plant.
Workers are also required to co-operate and participate in the implementation of
the organisational and other measures related to the major hazard control system in
operation. They can play an active role in constantly watching over the safety of their
workplaces and the equipment that they use, and in applying all safety and health
instructions pertaining to their work. Workers should always make proper use of all
safeguards and safety devices and other appliances made available for their protection or
the protection of other.
No worker, unless authorized, should interfere with, remove, alter or displace any safety
device or other appliance made available for his or her protection or the protection of
others, or interfere with any method or process adopted with a view to avoiding accidents
and injuries to health. Furthermore, workers should not tamper with equipment such as
controls, machines, valves, piping, electrical conductors and appliances which they have
not been authorized to operate, maintain or use.
Any defects found in the course of work should be reported without any delay to
a competent supervisor. When workers, through their job experience, have reason to
believe that there would be high risk to life or health if a task assigned to them or to
their fellow workers was carried out, they should report the fears immediately to their
supervisors, occupier, agent, manager or to workers safety representatives and to the
competent safety and health ofcers in the plant. Workers co-operation in dealing with
such imminent dangers is essential in the prevention of major hazards.
Each worker should be fully informed in an adequate manner of the major accident
hazard involved in his or her work. This should include safety and health information on
planning or altering work processes or the organisation of work.
Conclusion
The judicial decisions, legislations related to the safety of workers, discussed above, can
contribute signicantly towards the establishment and implementation of a major hazards
control system. Given adequate information, workers organisation can participate
actively in examining factors related to major accident risks. They can propose measures
also to counteract such risks. Workers organisation should continue to develop and
promote awareness and expertise among their members in matters concerning the safety
of major hazard installation and hazardous chemicals. Training activities organized by
workers organisations are especially important. Such training should, inter alia, promote
awareness of the basic principles of major hazard control system. The preparation and use
Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 105
of training and information materials for workers and their organisations is an important
task to be performed carefully. There should be regular consultations between the
organisations of workers and of employers concerning the development and operations
of the major hazard control system.

Bibliography
R.L and E. Kendra, Dehradun v. State of U.P. AIR 1987 S.C. 2426, where the mining operation was
stopped by the order of the court.
James, Mitchell, The Long Road to Recovery: Community Responses to Industrial Disaster (Dec.
1996); See Pooja Murarka, Human Rights, Environment & Industrial Disaster http://unv.edu.
archive.unv.edu, www.legal service india.com (Accessed on August 08, 2011).
ILO, Major Hazard Control: A practical Manual.
In the United States, a change in the accident response mechanism, took place after the Bhopal
tragedy. The Environmental protection Agency initiated new programmes to deal with accidents
of a similar nature, see, the Times of India, New Delhi, August 03, 1988, p. 8.
Leelakrishna, P. (1986) Environment Impact Assessment, Need for Law, CULR, p. 246.
M.C. Mehta vs Union of India, AIR 1987, S.C. 1086.
Health and Environment, CSE Draft Dossier Preparedness and Response to Chemical Emergencies,
India Country Report (For World Health Organization), June 1996.
Srivastava, S.C. (2002) Commentaries on the Factory Act, 1948, pp. 284-285.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
AIR 1987, S.C. 965.
Ibid.
1996 (72), FLR 481.
AIR 1987, S.C. 1792.
AIR 1987, S.C. 965.
(1985) 2 SCC 431.
Supra note 12, p. 1086.
(1868) 3, HC 330.
Supra note 12, p. 1098.
Ibid., p. 1099.
Ibid.
AIR 1988, S.C. 2187.
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(1987) 4 SCC 463, the nal judgment of this case was given on January 12,1988.
Supra note 12.
Ibid.
AIR 1987, S.C. 982.
Abstract
Floods pose upsetting consequences in developing countries like Pakistan. The 2010 ood was
the worst ever in the history of Pakistan which had resulted from the unexpected rainfall of
high intensity between end July and early September. The 2010 oods were the worst since
1929 for its extensive inundation and destruction in a bigger part of Pakistan. On record,
losses included death of over 2,000 people, destruction of one million houses and ve million
acres of cultivated land was damaged while the number of displace people was over 20 million.
The estimate losses in terms of money were almost US$ 43 billion while estimated losses to
agriculture and livestock sectors were US$ 2.8 billion and 450 million respectively. An area of
0.1 sq km was affected over 79 districts of Pakistan. Climatic changes like elevated carbon
dioxide concentrations and rise in temperature were responsible for the intense rains, and
hence, the 2010 oods. Crops and livestock were the important victims along with the humans
and infrastructure. Rezoning the crops areas as well as agronomic management will be helpful
to avoid or lessening the devastating impacts of oods on agriculture sector. The important
challenges now are (i) storage of extra water, and (ii) shifting water from Western River to
Eastern River of the country. The University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, played a vital role to
help the victims of the ood during 2010. Some of the target districts for these activities were
Rajanpur, Khushab, Jhang and Muzaffargarh. Food items and Eid gifts were distributed among
the people of the affected districts. The university contributed in a big way at Atthara Hazari in
terms of mosquito control campaign and providing eatables, water, medicines, fodder/Berseem
seed, vegetable seed, wheat seed, nutrient package, school bags, animal feeds, vaccination,
agricultural inputs, marriage packages, etc.
Key words: Floods, Pakistan, Ashfaq, UAF, Damages
Floods in Pakistan 2010 (Lesson Learned
and Way Forward) with Special Reference
to Agriculture Sector (A Success Story)
M. Ashfaq and Ehsanullah

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 107
M. ASHFAQ AND EHSANULLAH
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Introduction
There has been a swift increase in the oods and other natural hazards all over the
world. According to IFRC (2009), climate associated disasters have increased at an
alarming rate and frequency has really increased to a threatening level. Stolton et al.
(2008) states that every year, ooding accounts for two thirds of people affected by
natural disaster. The causes of this increase are rapid urbanisation, deforestation and
climate change. The Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (2007) is of the view that
in the past years, there has been a large rise in the number of disasters (from between
200 and 250 in 1987-97 to about double of that in the rst seven years of the 21st
century). Pakistan possesses a lot of diversity in its topographical features and is ranked
at number 48 among the countries which are prone to high risks of mortality due to
natural hazards. The population and area under risk are 50 per cent and 23 per cent
respectively. Three major disasters of the history have put the country at higher level
in the list. Hence, Pakistan stands up 32nd on the list with 1.4 per cent of total area
at risk having a population size of 5.9 per cent (WB, 2005). Numerous dangerous and
heavy disasters have hit the vulnerable communities all over the country particularly
during the recent past (NDMA, 2007). The important role in these climatic havocs is
of the glaciers in Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya (HKH) for the water inows in
the rivers of Pakistan. There is substantial ambiguity about the temporal changes in
the physical volumes of these glaciers. Nevertheless, over the last hundred years, the
mountain glaciers are found to be retreating worldwide (Haeberli and Hoelzle, 2001),
and the glaciers in the HKH region are reported to be receding faster than in any other
part of the world (Rees & Collins, 2004).
Total Area Affected by Flood 2010
The ood affected area was 9.542 m acres while the maximum damage was caused in
Punjab, Sindh, Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkwa (KPK), and Kashmir including 3.786,
3.321, 1.221, 1.206 and 0.009 m acres respectively.
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Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 109
FLOODS IN PAKISTAN 2010 (LESSON LEARNED AND WAY FORWARD) WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO
AGRICULTURE SECTOR (A SUCCESS STORY)
Table 1: Flood affected areas of Pakistan (in km and acres)
Table 2: Flood affected areas of Punjab province under various land use systems
Analysis of historical meteorological data (1951-2000) showed that (i) the mean annual
temperature has been increasing in most parts of Pakistan; only the Sub-Mountain and
Western Highlands and Lower Indus Plains show a decreasing trend, (ii) all the zones
show an increasing trend for the pre-monsoon summer months (Apr-May), (iii) all the
zones, except Zone V (Baluchistan Plateau, which is an arid and hyper-arid region), show
a decreasing trend for the monsoon period, (iv) the Greater Himalayan region shows an
increasing trend throughout from December to May, and (v) Baluchistan Plateau (Zone
V) is getting warmer in all the seasons.
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Table 3: Mean temperature increase/decrease trends in C, 1951-2000, Pakistan
(GCISC, 2009)
Table 4: Precipitation trends, 1951-2000, Pakistan
(GCISC, 2009)
Regarding precipitation, Table 2 shows that (i) the mean annual precipitation has
generally been increasing except in Coastal Areas, (ii) the monsoon precipitation also
shows essentially the same trend, (iii) the winter rains show a mixed pattern with
decreasing trend appearing in western highlands and a part of Baluchistan province

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 111
(Suleiman and Kirthar Ranges), and (iv) the Greater Himalayas show a trend of increasing
precipitation during Monsoon period (June-September) and that of slightly decreasing
precipitation in winter months (December-March) monsoon precipitation (Figure1).
Figure 1: Monthly rainfall shift trends in Pakistan
(Courtesy: PMD)
Increasing rainfall, lack of storage and decreasing existing storage capacity by 0.2 MAF
annually due to silting is posing serious ood threats in Pakistan.
These unexpected meteorological events are also the outcome of climate change
caused due to rise of CO
2
level from 280 ppm to 550 ppm, rise in temperature about 0.8
C in 20th century and projected rise in temperature towards the end of 21st century, that
is, 4

C (2.85.2

C), and change in rainfall pattern 10.1 per cent (7.115.8 per cent) in
the South Asia (IPCC, 2007). Global Climate Impact Study Centre (GCISC and Pakistan
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Meteorological Department (PMD) has also projected a drastic change in climate of
Pakistan till 2080. (GCISC, 2009). These projections are presented in Table 5. Pakistan
Meteorological Department is providing short- and medium-term forecasting which
embody very useful meteorological data for the use of farmers/end users, but there is
severe need to develop long term weather forecasting (3-6 months) in collaboration with
SUPARCO and agriculture universities.
Table 5: Scenarios of temperature and precipitation change in Northern and
Southern parts of Pakistan as worked out by GCISC from an ensemble of six GCM
outputs
(GCISC, 2009)

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 113
Table 6: average water balance in the Indus river system
(World Bank 2004)
History of Floods in Pakistan
Pakistan had faced severe oods in 1973, 1988, 1992 and 2006 that damaged Pakistans
economy to a considerable extent.
Challenge of the Super Flood-2010
Pakistan witnessed an exceptional high rainfall in July and August 2010, extending till
September the same year. This rainfall proved to be one of the major contributing factors
that led the country to be a victim of devastating ood. According to Akram (2010),
monsoon rain, which started in Khyber Pakhtunkwa on July 27, 2010 caused ood and
damages in many areas. This ood has been assessed to be the worst since 1929 for its
extensive inundation and devastation across the country. Floods stretched to an area of
1,00,000 sq km, encompassing 78 districts. The enormous loss includes more than 2,000
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human lives, loss of one million houses, devastation of 5 million acres of cultivated land
and more than 20 million people were displaced (ADB and WB, 2010). Pakistan had to
bear a monetary loss of more than US$ 43 billion. The estimated losses to the agriculture
and livestock sectors were US$ 2.8 billion and US$ 450 million respectively.
Causes of Flood
Flood is a natural hazard caused by at least two main factorsrainfall and topographical
condition (BNPB, 2010). According to Khan (2007), a combination of one or more of four
factors causes river oods in Pakistan(i) monsoon torrential rains in July and August,
(ii) westerlies from the Arabian and Mediterranean seas in winter, (iii) excessive melting
of snow in spring and early summer, and (iv) natural damming and subsequent outbursts
because of landslides, debris ows, or glacier advances (glacial lake outbursts can be an
additional cause of ood in Pakistan). Monsoon rains produced huge volume of water in
northern areas and broke the 80-year record. Global warming contributes 85 per cent in
rainfall. More than 200 mm rainfall occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkwa during 24 hours. A
record rainfall of 274 mm was recorded in Peshawar. Cutting of trees on rivers and canal
embankments, construction of houses and roads in river belts (bat areas) and raising of
crops in pond areas also cause ood.
Losses/Damages
The enormous loss was so severe and rampant that Pakistan alone could not ght against
the afiction. Therefore, during this time, major international aids came from Saudi
Arabia, the US, the UK and Canada.
Punjab (especially Jhang, D.G. Khan, Rajanpur and Muzaffargarh districts) was the
severely-damaged province. Terrible scenes were witnessed in these areas. Villages were
disappearing under water and hoards of people were running to save and rescue their
lives. Large number of people left their inundated houses and migrated to safer places.
There was a situation of chaos, distress and afiction. People were leaving their homes in
frenzy on trolleys, carts, or on whatever they could get their hands on.
According to Pakistans Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL), oods
caused widespread damage to the standing crops (about 30 per cent of cultivated land).
Estimated losses to the agriculture and livestock sectors were US$ 2.8 billion and 450
million respectively. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that highest
losses were recorded in Punjab where about 6,61,637 ha of land with standing crops (1.5
m ha or rice, 0.5 m ha of sugarcane, and large areas under fodder, oilseed, pulses, and

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 115
vegetables) were destroyed. According to ofcial estimates, cotton which is the main
earner of foreign exchange, suffered heavy losses and it is expected that the country may
have to import 3.5 4 million bales during 2012.
Figure 2: Damages caused by Flood
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Figure 3
Major Challenges, Constraints and Issues Related to Agriculture especially
due to Flood, 2010
Challenges
Pakistan had faced many challenges due to ood in 2010. There was a dire requirement
of food, poverty reduction (linkages with food security) and enhanced productivity on
sustainable basis through sustainable delivery of resources to the farmers.
Constraints
Some of the important constraints related to agriculture in Pakistan are degradation
and inability to develop and implement actions for marginal areas (coastal zone, desert,
riverine and wastelands, etc.), fragmentation of land holdings to very small parcels,
non-availability of site-specic technologies, slow diffusion of technological advances,
shortage of rural infrastructure, inaccessible markets, Grading, Storage, etc. Illiteracy in
rural areas is also a major constraint in agriculture productivity.

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 117
Issues
Related to Crop
The 2010 ood caused low economic yields of crops that resulted in a big gap in potential
and average yield of crops, especially cotton. Flood also changed the Agro-Ecological zones
and Cropping Pattern of the country. Poor monitoring, poor fore-casting of diseases/
pests incidence caused severe damage to the crops/livestock. High costs of agricultural
inputs and black marketing by middle men were rampant. Furthermore, unavailability
of quality inputs like seed, fertiliser, pesticides, poor purchasing power of the people, and
inaccessibility to credit/loans to the farmers were the major problems that had cropped
up their heads.
Related to Damage of Cotton
Major distortion took place in cotton-growing areas of central Punjab and southern Sindh
after the 2010 ood was over.
Related to Soil
Soil structure had deteriorated due to oods. There was a severe problem of land degradation
in rural areas after oods. Soil composition (organic matter, salinity, etc.) suffered greatly.
There was a need of external sources of Ca
2+
, proper nutrient management and balanced
fertilisation for rehabilitation of damaged land.

Related to Irrigation Water
Agriculture largely depends upon articial application of water. Infrastructure for water
channels was completely destroyed. There was an acute shortage of good quality of
irrigation (canal) water; only 30 per cent was available because of increase in cropping
intensity. About 80 per cent ground water used for irrigation was brackish, which was
greatly hazardous for crop production. About 68 per cent of the geographical area had
annual rainfall of 250 mm which is insufcient for crop production, while about 24 per
cent had rainfall of 251 to 500 mm. Thus, supplemental water was required for protable
agricultural production, either from irrigation or through water harvesting.
Related to Market
Severe shortage of storage facilities, especially for perishable commodities for the poor
farmers, was a major marketing problem. Monopolistic role of middle men/agents was
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also a big hindrance. Unawareness among farmers about market prices and de-regularised
input prices caused an imbalance in agricultural prices.
Related to Livestock
Livestock has a major share in agricultural GDP. The 2010 ood caused livestock shortage.
Poor health services for animals, insufcient semen storage/A.I. centers and shortage of
fodder/feed caused a sever damage to livestock sector in Pakistan. Banks also provided less
credit facilities for development of livestock sector.
Related to Farmers
Majority of farmers in Pakistan are illiterate. Small land holding, poor resources and
inefcient credit facilities for the farmers are the major sources of low agricultural
productivity. Lack of farmers organisations, collaboration with research institutes, and
dependency on interest vested middlemen are the main limiting factors. There is a dire
need for the availability of timely and quality inputs to the poor farmers and transfer of
site-specic improved technology at a very large scale.
Related to Policies
Inadequate accountability of culprits/non-availability of site-specic technologies, lack of
sustainable policies related to agriculture and shortage of trained manpower in research
and extension are the major constraints for the development of agriculture in our country.
Unattractive service structure in agriculture sector and inefcient processing industry and
small units in rural areas are the major issues of low productivity. Government should
shift its priorities and change the policies about agriculture, which might be helpful to
minimise the yield gaps.
In addition:
State supported testing laboratories are mostly ill-equipped and under-staffed. Laboratories
with technical standards to carry out reference functions are required. Furthermore, lack
of co-ordination in various agricultural organisations, absence of seed exchange centres,
lack of diagrammatic labs and advisory services are also major restrictions for development
of agriculture in Pakistan.
Case Study for Rehabilitation of Flood Affected Area
To carry out the rehabilitation activities, a committee was constituted by the University

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 119
of Agriculture, Faisalabad, under the supervision of Dean, Faculty of Agriculture. After a
detailed review of the availability of resources, access and conditions of the affected area,
the committee identied eight ood affected villages of Atthara Hazari, Jhang District, to
carry on the rehabilitation activities:

l Moza Kharal Sepra
l Moza Dosa
l Moza Lurca
l Subhana Sharaqi and Garbi
l Mundai Syed
l Kotli Baqar Shah
l Aalma Garbi
l Kot Mal Dev
Figure 4: Road Map of Focused Area, 2010
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Figure 5: DCO Jhang Along with Dean Agriculture and Students

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 121
General Situation of the Area (after the survey)
l The area was completely hit by ood with water standing up to 5 ft from the ground
level.
l The houses of the farmers and their animals were completely safe as they were above
the ood water.
l Cotton was completely destroyed.
l 50 per cent of the sugarcane crop was heavily affected, whereas the standing crop had
a very poor look with naked roots.
l Rice crops had mild damage; however, attack of insects was common. The farmers had
sprayed the crops on their own.
l Livestock was vaccinated by the Punjab government but was ineffective.
l General livestock strength was between 10-15 animals; a few had up to 40 while there
were many with less than 10 animals.
l Framers had a desire for ration and other day-to-day utilities for their families.
l Big complaint about mosquito and malaria was made by the residents.
l Animal feed, fodder, deworming, seed concerns, etc. were also identied.
Figure 6: General Situation of the Area
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Table 7: Quick Facts of Some Villages of Atthara Hazari Affected By 2010 Floods
Problems Identied by the Committee
Shelter
l Humans
l Animals
Food
l Humans
l Animals
Human and Animal Health
l Mosquito leading to malaria
l Flies
l Gastroenteritis
l Skin infections including scabies
l De-worming
l Vaccination

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 123
l Fogging
Land
l Fertility level disturbed
l No demarcations left
l Water channel destroyed
l Seed
l Fertilisers
l Spray/Insecticides
l Small Implements
Others
l Education
Table 8: Estimated Cost for Rehabilitation of the Focused Area
Atthara Hazari, Jhang
*Price includes packing material, printing, transportation, etc.
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Short-term Rehabilitation Programmes in Action
A Base camp at a suitable place in affected area was established to run the activities of our
teams. Mobile testing laboratories/mobile animal clinics were developed and Advisory
Services for all agro-oriented services were given in focused as well as in adjoining
ood affected areas. 3,000 mounds wheat seed, 50 mounds vegetable seeds, alongwith
Herbicide/Fertiliser Package, cattle feed and 2,000 school bags in focused area were
provided. Comprehensive spray programmes along with technical input by interns and
faculty members were also offered for a couple of months. All inputs like seed, fertilisers,
pesticides insecticides, etc. were also provided. Vaccination/de-worming of animals was
done twice and fogging was carried out thrice.
Figure 7: Base Camp

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 125
Figure 8: Short-term Rehabilitation Programmes in Action
Figure 9: Human Medication
126

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Figure 10: Distribution of School Bags to the Children
Figure 11: Welcoming the Agriculture Minister at the Kissan Convention in
Atthara Hazari

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 127
Figure 12: Vice Chancellor along with Agriculture Minister and
Other Guests on the Stage
Figure 13: Vice Chancellors Address
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Figure 14: Dean, Agriculture Addressing the Farmers in Kissan Convention
(Convener Flood Committee)
Figure 15: Distribution of Herbicide Packages

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 129
Figure 16: Distribution of Wheat Seed
Figure 17: Distribution of Farm Implements
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Lessons Learnt
There was an urgent need to review and restructure the Flood Control Commission.
Flood protection works should be given due importance in resource allocation
irrespective of the infrequency of oods. Establishment of new benchmarks in terms
of protection works and a fresh drainage plan for quick draining of ood waters from
affected areas and governance at local level is non-existent during emergencies. There is
a need for a fresh look at our district and tehsil administration system to bring back the
ability for effective leadership and coordination during emergencies. As such, regular
updating of SOPs, regular drills for disaster management, regular capacity building/
training of managers for ood protection, barrage management and public handling
during crises are needed. Promotion of spirit of self-reliance in emergency relief and
post-disaster rehabilitation is required. The ood situation indicated that there was
hardly any strategy for breaching the bunds. The ood control programmers as well as
weather forecast failed during recent ood to save the people from natural disaster. The
watersheds have degraded to an extent that peaks are enhanced and there is an urgent
need to develop a comprehensive and practical strategy for watershed management. A
code of conduct for media during natural disasters to harness their outreach for effective
management rather than incitement to anarchy is needed.
Recommendations Focusing on Agriculture Concerns in
Flood Affected Areas of Pakistan
l There is an urgent requirement to survey and identify the path way of rivers and canal
network in the light of current oods.
l Improve and extend the Flood Forecasting System to include upper Indus above Tarbela
and Kabul River above Nowshera (Telemetry System on Tributaries and additional
weather radars).
l Development of ood management guidelines for Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs so as
to enhance their ood mitigation role.
l Identication of future reservoirs that would have high ood mitigation role in
addition to their agriculture and hydropower benets.
l Identication of ood release channels/escape channels to desert areas/off channel
storages that would provide major reduction in ood peak discharge in main rivers.
l Flood plain mapping/zoning along the Indus River and its tributaries for restricting/
prohibiting by law, permanent settlements in high and medium ood risk areas

Vol. 4 No. 1 June 2011 u 131
(Provinces to enact laws).
l Review and revise the design criteria for the design of bridges/communication
infrastructure and ood protection bunds keeping in view the likely damages to the
populated area and agriculture.
l Re-identication of Agro Ecological Zones as well as cropping patterns of Pakistan is
urgently required.
l Establishment of new benchmarks in terms of protection works, heights and strengths.
A fresh drainage plan for quick draining of ood waters from affected areas.
l Biodiversity survey in all dimensions direly needed for better crop production.
l Promote innovative and integrated applied and site-specic research/technologies.
l Land demarcation and infra structure be ensured on top priority to avoid conict in
farming community.
l Comprehensive survey relating to soil/water, fertility/tness is of immediate concerns
for ood affected areas.
l Establishment of seed exchange centers alongwith other inputs in rural areas is also
required.
l Network of diagnostic labs and advisory services.
l Replacement of seeds of all crops in ood affected areas and provision of nursery/
plants for agro-forestry be ensured.
l Introduction of water harvesting technologies at farmers eld for making its best use
for agricultural purposes on one hand and energy production concerns on the other.
l Land leveling through laser land leveler should also be ensured.
l Provision of interest-free loaning in terms of kind not cash must be encouraged.
Bibliography
ADB and WB (2010) Pakistan Floods 2010: Preliminary Damages and Needs Assessment, ADB and
WB, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Akram, S. (2010) Rapid Assessment Report of Flood Affected Communities in Swat District, Khyber
Pakhtunkwa, Pakistan (unpublished report). Save the Children, Pakistan.
GTZ (2005) Linking Poverty Reduction and Disaster Management. GTZ, Eschborn, Germany.
Haeberli, W and Hoelzle, M. (2001) The world Glacier Monitoring Service. (http://www.nerc-bas.
ac.uk./public/icd/icsi/WGMS.html).
Hewitt, K. (2005) The Karakoroam Anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the Elevation effect, Karakoram
Himalaya. Mountain Research and Development, 25(4), pp. 332-340.
IFRC (2009) Disaster: How the Red Cross Red Crescent Reduces Risk. IFRC, Geneva, Switzerland.
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IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Khan, M.A. (2007) Disaster Preparedness for Natural Hazards: Current Status in Pakistan, ICIMOD,
Kathmandu, Nepal.
NDMA (2007) National Disaster Management Framework Pakistan. National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA), Government of Pakistan Islamabad, Pakistan.
RED Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre (2007) RED Cross/ Red Crescent Climate Guide. The
Netherlands Red Cross, Netherlands.
Rees, G. and Collins (2004) SAGARMATHA: An Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Deglaciation
on the Water Resources of Himalaya, [M]. DFID KAR Project No. R7980.
Sheikh, M. M., Manzoor, N., Adnan, M., Ashraf, J.and Khan, Arshad, M. (2009) Climate Profle and
Past Climate Changes in Pakistan, Research Report No.GCISC-RR-01, Global Change Impact
Studies Centre, Islamabad.
Stolton, S., Dudley, N. and Randall, J. (2008) Natural Security Protected Areas and Hazard Mitigation,
World Wide Fund for Nature, UK.
UNISDR (2009) Global Assessment Report On Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nation, Geneva,
Switzerland.
WB. 2010. Natural Disaster Hotspot: A Global Risk Analysis The World Bank, Washington, D.C.,
USA.
World Book Inc (2008) World Books Library on Disaster: Floods. World Book Inc. Chicago, USA.
Director
Dr. O.P.Mishra
Head- Geological Disaster Division
&
Mriganka Ghatak
Specialist- Geological Disaster Division
Assistant Editor
Rajan Kumar
Editorial Assistant
Yashika Sharma
Assistant Editor
Sunanda Dey
Editor
Prof. Santosh Kumar
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