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October 2012 issue © October 19, 2012 (recorded October 18) Click here to view this
October 2012 issue © October 19, 2012 (recorded October 18) Click here to view this

October 2012 issue © October 19, 2012 (recorded October 18)

Click here to view this Special Video Issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist.

Click here to download the presentation slides (PDF).

This is a transcript of the October 2012 video issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It has been edited for clarity and precision for the print reader.

This is being recorded on the morning of October 18, 2012, for posting on October 19, 2012. Welcome to The Elliott Wave Theorist, October 2012 issue. I’m doing a video issue this month because I’ve got 40 charts to show you. I want you to understand why I have the market opinion that I do, and I think this is the best way to go about it.

Long-Term Price Analysis I’m going to start by showing pictures of long term price analysis. This first graph is one you haven’t seen before. R.N. Elliott noticed way back in the 1940s that fifth waves in impulse sequences are often related mathematically in some neat way to the net travel of waves of one through three. I’ve found that we have exactly that situation here. From 1932 to 2007 was a Supercycle advance, subdividing into five waves. Waves I through III took 34 years, and wave V took 33 years. The advance was also nearly the same, too: Waves I through III created a 24.1 times multiple from bottom to top, and wave V created a 24.5 times multiple from bottom to top. So as you can see, the net travel of waves I through III is essentially identical, both in price and time, to the net travel of wave V. This is one of the reasons why I think that the 2007 high is the final high. It’s one of the reasons I’ve been calling this a bear market rally. There are several other reasons, which I’m about to show you. The next chart is one that you have seen before. It shows that the three advancing waves in this Supercycle are related by Fibonacci multiples. Wave I traveled 371.62%, and wave III traveled that percentage times the Fibonacci ratio squared, or 2.618. And wave V—when measuring from the 1982 low—traveled wave I’s percentage times the Fibonacci ratio cubed. For wave III, the Fibonacci ratio is 1.618. For wave V, it’s 5/3. The multiples come out almost exactly to give you the two peak values: 995.15 in 1966 and 14,000+ in 2007. The previous chart uses the 1974 low as a starting point, and this chart uses the 1982 low. We showed both of these valid interpretations in

1982 low. We showed both of these valid interpretations in P.O. Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA
1982 low. We showed both of these valid interpretations in P.O. Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA

P.O. Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA 30503 USA • 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 • FAX 770-536-2514

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012

The Elliott Wave Theorist way back in September 1982. That was the first time I said August 1982 could be the orthodox end of Cycle degree wave IV. Even though the 1982 low is higher than the 1974 low in the nominal Dow, it marked the final bottom in the Dow/PPI, in other words, the inflation-adjusted Dow. So you can definitely call 1966-1982 a single corrective period. You can see the original discussion in the Appendix to Elliott Wave Principle. So now we have, by each of those different wave labels, a calculation showing that the high is probably already in. Is there anything else within the Elliott wave model that supports that opinion? Yes, there is. Here’s another picture of the Supercycle rise in the Dow from 1932. It shows the channel and has all the wave labels on it. As you can see, the advance held within a parallel trend channel until breaking out in an overthrow in the 1990s. It also adhered to a channel at Cycle degree. Wave V peaked just above that channel’s upper line, and after it broke the lower line in 2002, the market rallied and mostly held underneath that line until finally topping in 2007. Now the same thing is going on, but this time with respect to the channel line of one higher degree, which goes all the way back to 1937. This channel was broken decisively in 2008, and since the low in March 2009 the market has rallied back to this line and bumped up against it several times. I think the resolution is going to be very similar to the one that occurred at smaller degree after 2007. And since this is a bigger trend channel, I think it has larger implications. This next slide is a close-up of the market action around this trendline. As you can see, prices have been bumping up against it since early 2011. In 2012, it’s done it a couple more times, and here it continues to sit. The NASDAQ has a very similar trendline, which acted as support since 1974, even including the low of the early 2000s. It was broken in 2008. Now look what’s happened since. The market has gone up and bumped against this lower line for quite a long time. In this case, the NASDAQ is above its 2007 high, but it’s not above the 2000 high or the trendline. I think this trendline is extremely important resistance, just as we have in the Dow Industrial Average. All right, that is our long term look at prices.You can see that there’s a lot of resistance at current levels, and important evidence that the market isn’t going to a new high.

Long-term Time Analysis Now let’s take a look at the long term time situation. Our first two graphs showed price relationships using both the 1974 and 1982 lows as the end of wave IV. Well, let’s look at time relationships in the same way. Those of you who read Beautiful Pictures will recall a number of examples whereby wave four in an impulse sequence divided the duration of the entire impulse into a Fibonacci section. This next chart is one of the examples that I showed. Here we have a Supercycle-degree, five-wave advance from 1932 to 2000. The 1974 low, which can be labeled the end of wave IV, divides that entire period into a Fibonacci section, with 42 years on the left side and 26 years on the right side. The ratio is 21 to 13, the Fibonacci ratio. Even though the Dow made a new all-time high in nominal terms in 2007, 2000 is the end of the bull market in real prices. In other words, when you take the Dow or the S&P and normalize it for inflation by dividing by the PPI, or a commodity index, or gold, you find that 1999-2000 is when real prices topped out.

by dividing by the PPI, or a commodity index, or gold, you find that 1999-2000 is
by dividing by the PPI, or a commodity index, or gold, you find that 1999-2000 is
by dividing by the PPI, or a commodity index, or gold, you find that 1999-2000 is

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Stocks today cannot buy the same amount of goods and services as they could then. So that was the real, true all-time high in stock values, and the 1974 low divides the entire advance to that point into a Fibonacci section. When we label wave IV as ending in 1982, there is 50 years’ worth of movement on the left side of the line, and now 30 years on the right. A final top in 2012 would create a beautiful 5/3 Fibonacci section. I think the top is going to

happen this year. And look at this interesting connection: 1982 was a higher low in the bottoming process, and I believe 2012 will mark a lower high in the topping process. So both Fibonacci time relationships, using previously established turning points, look as if they could work out. There’s another basis on which I’ve been looking at Fibonacci time relationships. There was a triple bottom between 1974 and 1982, lasting

8 years. The important lows divided the time periods into 5 years and 3

years. Now the market is forming a triple top from 1999 to 2012. It will have taken 13 years and will have subdivided into periods of 8 years and

years, if the market makes a high in 2012. You probably recall my showing this next chart. This is a forecast that R.N. Elliott made in one of his publications back in 1941. He suggested that Supercycle wave (V) might end in—guess when—2012. Our two Fibonacci time relationships dating from 1932 support the case that Elliott made back then for a high in 2012. I think he was estimating, but his estimate could turn out to be exactly correct. This would make him the best forecaster today, and he’s not even alive. If the market is to top this year, what month might it peak? I’ve been updating this next chart for years. Ever since the bull market started in 1982, almost every one of the important turns has occurred in July, August or October. And look what’s happened in the past two years: The Dow Jones Transportation Average made its all-time high in July 2011. The Dow Jones Utility Average made its major-rebound peak in August 2012, and possibly we will have a Dow Jones Industrial Average top in October 2012. So in the past year or so, we will have had each of the three major components of the Dow Jones Composite Average making a high in one of the three months that we’ve been monitoring for so long. So that is why I think 2012 is important, and October 2012 is particularly important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now.

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important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now. 5 Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and
important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now. 5 Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and
important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now. 5 Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and
important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now. 5 Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and
important. That’s one reason I’m doing this video now. 5 Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and

Momentum Analysis Elliott wave analysis and these price and time observations are useful, but I like to see whether general technical analysis supports conclusions based on the Elliott wave template. First, let’s take a look at the class of indicators called momentum indicators.

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 First of all, non-confirmations almost always occur at turns, especially

First of all, non-confirmations almost always occur at turns, especially in the stock market. They also occur many times that are not important turns. But if a turn is at hand, there will be non-confirmations among markets and components of markets. Let’s take a look and see what we have today. The top graph is the S&P 500, the one that everybody is following and projecting higher. The charts below show you what’s going on in the rest of the world. The Chinese stock market peaked out in August 2009; it’s been in a bear market ever since and is down substantially. The Japanese Nikkei index has been down ever since early 2010. The EuroStoxx index has been down since early 2011, and so have the famous BRICs that everyone wanted to own back in 2010-2011. And the emerging markets—which I like to call submerging markets, because I think that’s where they’re going to end up—are also down. These are massive global non-confirmations of the new rally highs in the S&P. Another important non-confirmation is the difference between the nominal market’s movements and the real market’s movements. As you know, there’s been a tremendous amount of QE going on. We’re currently in QE3. The Fed has been monetizing at an unprecedented rate and unprecedented scale. At the same time, it’s holding interest rates at zero percent. Look at the real value of the stock market: It definitely topped for the New York Composite Index back in 2007, and look at this lower high last year in 2011. It’s below that high today. The real purchasing power of the broad list of stocks is down by fully one-third since 2007. And people are talking about new all-time highs in the S&P! It’s ridiculous. Another fascinating thing is that there are now non-confirmations at every important degree of trend. Go back to 2000, and you’ll see that the Dow made a new all-time high in 2007, but the Dow/PPI ratio didn’t, the Dow/CRB ratio didn’t, and the NASDAQ—even in nominal terms—hasn’t even come close. So differences between 2000 and the present produce an important set of non-confirmations. Now, let’s go back just to 2007. There was a new high in the Dow Jones Transportation Index in 2011, but so far it’s unmatched by the Dow or the S&P. So we have non-confirmations going back five years as well. What about even closer? The Dow went above its high of 2011 both in early 2012 and again here in October 2012. The S&P went above last year’s high in recent months as well. But the Dow Jones Transportation

2012. The S&P went above last year’s high in recent months as well. But the Dow
2012. The S&P went above last year’s high in recent months as well. But the Dow
2012. The S&P went above last year’s high in recent months as well. But the Dow
2012. The S&P went above last year’s high in recent months as well. But the Dow

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Index is nowhere near last year’s high; it’s been crawling down a downtrend line throughout the year. And the New York Composite Index, as mentioned earlier, is lower than last year’s high as well. So look at that: We’ve got non-confirmations going back 12 years, 5 years and 2 years. This is a line-up for tremendous reversal. I’d also like to take a close look at the Dow Theory situation. According to Dow Theory, the trend is confirmed as long as two averages—the Industrials and Transports—are moving in the same direction. They indicate a possible trend change when they diverge in direction. The last time that the Industrials and Transports made a joint high was April 29, 2011. That’s nearly a year and a half ago. The Dow Industrials have made new high, but the Transportation Average has stubbornly stayed below its high of 2011. Not only that, but its below its high of early 2012. So the Dow Theory is very strongly suggesting that a major turn is in the offing. We won’t have confirmation of a bear market until both of these indexes take out the October 2011 low, which is a long way down. It’s not necessary to wait. At this point, you can say the Dow Theory is flashing red and giving a very, very important indication of a turn from up to down. I’ve been showing you all these charts of blue chip indexes, such as the Dow and the S&P, making new highs above last year’s and getting close to their all-time highs of 2007. You would think that institutions would be making a whole lot of money, because they tend to concentrate in blue chip stocks. Well, that’s not the case. Here is a chart of the capitalization-weighted index of the 75 most- owned stocks by institutions. They’re down 25% from the high in 2000 and don’t appear anywhere near to catching up. The reason is that they’re heavily weighted in these big stocks, and they tend to weight them according to capitalization, and those stocks are just not doing very well. Institutions are losing money on their biggest holdings. You’ve also been reading the newspaper in the past year about how much money the hedge funds have been losing. They seem to be getting excited when the market is up and panicking when it’s down, so they’re trading the wrong way. The market has been very tricky in recent months. So, the idea that the big boys are making money is pretty much false. But the most important momentum indication of all, and the last one I’m going to show you, is volume. People have started ignoring volume because bears have been talking about declining volume ever since 2010. But it is extremely important. Volume overall has been shrinking ever since the market’s low of March 2009. This line that I’ve drawn tracks the volume on the rising portions of the rally from 2009. Every time the market gets hit very hard—such as in the collapse of 2008, the “flash crash” of May 2010 and the market plunge in August last year—volume picks up. This is not a picture of a bull market. In a bull market, the opposite happens. Volume should be going up during the entire period, and it should be declining every time the market corrects. But we’re getting exactly the opposite situation. I think this is a strong indication that the market is in a big B wave, or at least a corrective wave rally, which is a bear-market rally, not a new bull market. Most people are expecting the averages to go to new all-time highs in a bull market. Volume analysis says that this is not the case.

Sentiment Analysis As I mentioned earlier, you can get non-confirmations in the middle of a bull market; they’re overcome, and the averages go to new highs. On rare occasions, even volume can be pretty low during the early part

and the averages go to new highs. On rare occasions, even volume can be pretty low
and the averages go to new highs. On rare occasions, even volume can be pretty low
and the averages go to new highs. On rare occasions, even volume can be pretty low

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of an up move—not often, but it does happen, usually when the up move is part of a corrective wave whose low is already past. So we need one more pillar of support for our market opinion, and that is the area of sentiment analysis. Let’s look at some key indicators in this area. If we’re right, they should be suggesting a major top. Let’s look first at the Volatility Index, the symbol being VIX. This is a measure of implied volatility for the next 30 days in the S&P 500 index. Nobody actually knows what the volatility is going to be for the next 30 days, so what this measure really shows you is people’s current opinion—how complacent or excited they are about the market. They think, for example, that the next 30 days are going to be just as calm as they are now. So it’s really a reflection of the present, not the future. Notice that we’re seeing a double bottom in this index, showing complacency in early 2012 and again approximately now. The last time we had this kind of setup was in late 2007 and again on the first major rally in 2008, when everybody thought it was signaling a resumption of the bull market, just before it collapsed. This is definitely a setup for a change from very calm markets toward much more volatile markets. Volatility tends to pick up in downtrends, so that’s probably what’s around the corner. How extreme is current complacency? One extreme indicator right now is the Market Vane’s Bullish Consensus, a poll of advisors. It is reaching extremes we haven’t seen since the top in 2007. When the market was panicking in 2008, this index got down to 29% and 31%, meaning more than two-thirds of advisors polled by Market Vane were bearish on the market and only 30% thought it could turn up. But look at how they feel at the highs: More than two-thirds were bullish in late 2007. And we’ve seen similar numbers at each of the peaks here in 2010 to 2012:

69% bulls at the first top; 69% at the next, and the latest reading is 70%, a series matching what we saw back in 2007. So, advisors are very, very bullish, as you’d expect to see at a top. It’s not just advisors. The big-money people, known as Large Speculators, are also very bullish. One of the indexes that they’ve become married to is the NASDAQ 100. As I showed you earlier, the NASDAQ is above its high of 2007 (though still below its 2000 high). Many people are taking this as a sign that’s it’s a big, new bull market for the NASDAQ, so they want to be heavily invested, and they are. These Large Speculators and Commercials buy and sell futures and options. This chart shows that the Large Specs right now are at an all-time record net long position on the NASDAQ 100. The Commercials, who are correct far more often because they don’t chase trends, are record net short.You do not want to bet against the Commercials when they’re at extreme levels, whereas you do want to bet against the Large Speculators when they are at extreme levels. And now you’ve got both groups’ behavior saying the market is near a top. What about people who are talking to the media? Well, here is a recent headline: “Up, up and away for stocks?You bet, some analysts say.” See the date? September 21, 2012. That happens to be the day that the NASDAQ so far has made its high for the year. Sometimes when articles quote people who are very, very confident, it happens right at turns. This week we’ve seen even more evidence that people are very optimistic. We’ve got this Barrons’s cover, for example. Of course, Barron’s is simply doing its job of reporting the opinions of economists and

cover, for example. Of course, Barron’s is simply doing its job of reporting the opinions of
cover, for example. Of course, Barron’s is simply doing its job of reporting the opinions of
cover, for example. Of course, Barron’s is simply doing its job of reporting the opinions of

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 money managers, and such people are expecting the all-time highs
The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 money managers, and such people are expecting the all-time highs

money managers, and such people are expecting the all-time highs in the Dow and the S&P to be taken out very soon. They’re certainly not alone in expressing this belief. Bloomberg reported this week that the five big banks it surveyed all are calling for a record new high in the S&P next year. Goldman Sachs is calling for the S&P to hit 1575; the bank of Montreal is calling for the same number; 1600 is where the Bank of America thinks the S&P is going; not to be outdone, Citigroup is calling for 1615 on the S&P; and Oppenheimer is looking for 1585. So, the big boys are all calling for new all-time highs. This situation is very reminiscent of the Barron’s headline of January 1973: “Not a Bear among Them.” That was a summary of opinion from the magazine’s annual forum, and the group Bloomberg just surveyed is pretty much a proxy for that one. What about the economy? As you know, recently people are saying the economy is looking a whole lot better. This week “Outlook Points to Blue Skies,” says the Associated Press, adding, “Tame consumer prices and confident builders are aiding growth.” And the opening paragraph reads, “The outlook for the U.S. economy brightened a little Tuesday after reports that consumer prices stayed tame…”—Of course, that’s our hint of coming deflation—“…and Homebuilder confidence rose to the highest level in six years.” But confidence is not a good thing for the bulls. What they really need is skepticism, but now we’re seeing a return to confidence about the economy. The sentiment situation, then, is compatible with this whole argument that we’re making. Here’s a summary of what I think is going on in the larger picture: We’re experiencing the third major peak in financial instruments over the past 14 years. This chart marks the all-time highs in 18 markets. The first set of peaks is from 1998 to 2000. The Value Line Composite index, Dow/Gold, Dow/CRB, Dow/PPI, and the NASDAQ all topped in this period. From 2006 to 2008 we saw all-time highs in real estate, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Dow Utilities, the S&P, the New York Composite, and even the commodity indexes. The first group is done, and this second group is done. And here in 2011-2012 we’ve seen all-time highs in the Value Line Arithmetic index, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the S&P Mid-Cap 400, the S&P Small-Cap 600, gold, and even Treasury Bonds and junk bonds. Using the kind of perspective shown here, you can see that the latest advance is not the start of something big. It is the third—and I believe final—manic period of all-time highs in financial assets. Investors throughout this period are just finding different places to chase trends, using all the liquidity the Fed is providing. So they’re lurching from one market to another, and every time they do, the market races up, makes an amazing all-time high, and then collapses. I think this latest group at new highs is the next one heading for a collapse.

Commodities Okay, so the stock market is likely to fall a long way from here. Can commodities save you? Many people say that commodities are contra-cyclical, so you want to be long commodities when stocks are in

you? Many people say that commodities are contra-cyclical, so you want to be long commodities when
you? Many people say that commodities are contra-cyclical, so you want to be long commodities when
you? Many people say that commodities are contra-cyclical, so you want to be long commodities when

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a big bear market. That’s just not true.

There are times in inflationary periods when they go in opposite directions, but in all other periods they tend to move roughly together. That’s certainly been true for the last ten years, during which time liquidity has been the important driver, pushing most of these markets up and down together. Here is a chart I showed back in May 2011, just a couple of weeks after the end of the two-year rebound in the CRB Index. And as you can see, after collapsing from 2008 to 2009, the CRB index of commodities had a three-step rebound, marked A-B-C, within a nice parallel trend channel and achieved a Fibonacci 62% retracement. That’s why I labeled it the end of the rally. Let’s put commodities in a broader perspective. This chart shows you the entire history from 1999. Commodities took a clear, five-wave shape up to the high in July 2008, had a breathtaking crash into March 2009, and then the A-B-C rally we just discussed. If you look closely, you can see five waves down in the first leg following last year’s high. When the short term bounce is over, commodities will get into the really hard down period. April 2011 is a more important time than people realize. That is the time when almost everything changed direction. As you can see on this chart, foreign currencies topped on April 29, 2011. In other words, the dollar bottomed at that time. The commodity index peaked on the very same day: April 29, 2011. The NewYork Composite Index of stocks had its rebound high—at least so far—on April 29, 2011, the very same day. And silver, one of the two precious metals, peaked on April 28, the day before. So what’s really going on here is that there was a very important high about a year and a half ago. Just a few indexes, such as the S&P and the Dow Industrial Average, are trying to hold up, putting on a show for everyone. But nearly everything else is already in a bear market, just as we saw across the entire globe.

Debt and the Fed All right, shifting topics just a bit: I want to talk about debt and the

Fed, because most people they think the Fed is keeping the market up. I’d like to come at it from a different perspective, that of a socionomist. Here

is a terrific chart that I showed in the July issue. The data were collected by

other researchers showing the number of times that laughter broke out in each Fed meeting. Alan Hall plotted these data against our main measure of social mood, the Dow Industrial Average. As you can see, after the end of the stock-market pullback in 1990, the Fed’s board members really started to love what they were doing. They became increasingly optimistic about the future, right along with the herd, all the way up to this peak, which pretty much coincided with the high in real estate. They expressed record hilarity right there in 2006. They haven’t released all the data, because there’s a lag time, so every year they’re going to release a little bit more data. Our forecast is that the Laughter At the Fed

so every year they’re going to release a little bit more data. Our forecast is that
so every year they’re going to release a little bit more data. Our forecast is that
so every year they’re going to release a little bit more data. Our forecast is that
so every year they’re going to release a little bit more data. Our forecast is that

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 (LAF) index will have fallen a long way into 2009,

(LAF) index will have fallen a long way into 2009, rebounded a little bit in 2010 and maybe even 2011, and probably started to come off a little bit from that point. Why do we think laughter is down? Because the Fed has changed its policy, and it has done so in dramatic fashion. Look at this history of what the Fed has done. You can go all the way back to 1929, and it was doing what its job is supposed to be, which is to put dampers on exuberance and only make money easier when the markets are down and the economy is contracting. Following that plan, the Fed raised the discount rate in 1929 to 6%. Here at the 1937 high, it raised margin requirements and bank reserves. In the 1968 bull market, when the public was excited about stocks, the Fed raised margin requirements and raised the discount rate to 6%. In 2000, right at that high, the Fed again raised its discount rate to 6%. In 2006, when the housing market was topping, and a year before stocks topped, it raised it to 6¼%. What is it doing now? The market is right back in the rarified areas that it was when the Fed dampened speculation, but now the Fed is doing the opposite. Not only has the Fed not raised the discount rate to 6%, or even to 1%, but it is keeping the Fed funds rate at zero, and it is promising a 0% Fed-funds rate through 2015, three whole years. This 180-degree turn tells me that the Fed is in a panic, and it’s doing everything it can to keep markets up. Well, if it’s done everything it could do, and yet I can still make a technical case, an Elliott wave case and a cyclical case for a major top in the market, the Fed is in big trouble, because there isn’t much else it can do. It’s got the pedal to the metal, and all it can do is create this ridiculous market where the Dow and the S&P are struggling to new nominal highs every couple of months while the broader list of stocks is not following suit, and nothing is following suit in real terms. What is the Fed’s problem? This picture shows you. The debt in 1929 was a molehill compared to the mountain of debt that’s been created up into the highs of the past several years. The total amount of dollar- denominated credit as a percentage of annual GDP peaked in 1929 at about 210%, while recently it’s been as high as 370%. This is a lot more credit today relative to the country’s ability to pay it off. It’s an extremely dicey situation. The Fed is doing everything it can to try to keep the credit balloon inflated. But it’s failing, because the markets and the economy are certainly not zooming, despite all the QEs and 0% interest rates. What have the authorities succeeded in doing? I’ll show you. Derivative levels are higher than they were at the height of the financial crisis. So, what the Fed has done – and this is known as moral hazard— is told all the big banks, which are listed right here: Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs, “Don’t worry, guys, you can create more and more derivatives that will never be paid off, because we will bail you out.” So that’s exactly what they’re doing. That’s how they make money. The Fed is not going to be able to support all these derivatives or prevent a collapse on the next go-around. I think the political climate is getting more and more resistive to that kind of solution, as well. What do you think bond investors are saying during this environment? Are they saying that bonds are a terrific buy, or are they afraid of them? The fact is, they love them. Wall Street’s sell-side strategists absolutely love bonds, recommending on average the highest-ever percentage allocation— nearly 40%.

strategists absolutely love bonds, recommending on average the highest-ever percentage allocation— nearly 40%. 9 e607653
strategists absolutely love bonds, recommending on average the highest-ever percentage allocation— nearly 40%. 9 e607653
strategists absolutely love bonds, recommending on average the highest-ever percentage allocation— nearly 40%. 9 e607653

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012

The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 The public agrees with them. The public has been buying
The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012 The public agrees with them. The public has been buying

The public agrees with them. The public has been buying junk bonds at a record pace. This graph shows you the net flow in and out of junk bond mutual funds and ETFs. The current year is not even over yet, but data through September 26 already show an all-time high in annual purchases of junk bonds by the public. So, advisors love the bond market, and the public loves the bond market. What do we at Elliott Wave International have to say? Let’s use a little bit of reason. This chart shows the bottom in bond prices and peak in interest rates back in 1981. At that time, the Fed pushed the Fed funds rate to a record high of 20%. That’s when the bond market bottomed. So what does it mean when the Fed pushes the Fed funds rate to a record low of zero, under which they cannot go, and pledges to keep them there for three more years, after having been there for three years already? We think it means a major top in bonds. We think that these newborn bulls are wrong. We put out a Special Report in the summer, a few weeks before this year’s high in bond prices. Interest rates really don’t follow the Wave Principle as well as stocks do, but this chart shows interest rates over the past 30-plus years adhering roughly to an Elliott wave structure. We see the same structure in the junk bonds. From the panic peak in interest rates all the way down to the low in interest rates that we have had in recent weeks, we see a very clear Elliott wave. So we think the junk bond market is also topping in price, bottoming in yield. Okay, if the stock market is going down, if commodities are going down, if the bond market is going down, what’s left? The one thing nobody wants: dollars. This chart shows that the Large Specs, who are totally in love with the NASDAQ 100 now after it’s been going up for ten years, also really love foreign currencies. They’re net long nearly a record number of contracts in foreign currencies. At the same time, the percentage of bulls among futures traders in the U.S. Dollar index, according to trade-futures.com, is only 7%. It was 4% at this low, 3% at that low, 3% again, and 6% back at the bottom in 2007. And here they are again, extremely skeptical about the dollar. They’re betting on the downside; 93% of them think it’s going lower. What interests me is that this is happening at a higher level in the Dollar index than at any of the four prior lows. I think this means the dollar is set up to move really strongly on the upside while everything else is falling apart. Creditors are going to want to be paid in dollars. Debtors are going to want dollars so they can pay those creditors. People selling their stocks are going to try to get dollars in exchange. Those selling commodities are going to try to get dollars in exchange. So I think the dollar is poised to begin another leg up, and I think it’s going to take out both of these highs in 2009 and 2010. When is all this going to begin, and when is it going to end? This is my final chart, and it shows the history of the 7¼-year cycle, which has been in effect since 1980, pretty well delineating the lows in the stock market.

the 7¼-year cycle, which has been in effect since 1980, pretty well delineating the lows in
the 7¼-year cycle, which has been in effect since 1980, pretty well delineating the lows in

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The Elliott Wave Theorist—October 19, 2012

The cycle’s ideal topping time is the third week of October 2012, basically now. It’s due to bottom in 2016, the ideal month being June. There’s also a 34-year cycle, which is due to bottom at exactly the same time. Something else I have been following since 1983 is a 17-year span, which has marked all the major sea changes in the Constant Dollar Dow since 1932. The latest turn occurred in 1999, so it the next one is due in 2016, fitting the timing of these cycles. So I think there are four years directly ahead for a serious, serious bear market. During this time there will be a scramble for dollars, so the dollar is going to perform better than anyone can imagine. We’ll see what happens. That’s the outlook for now. Thanks for listening.

happens. That’s the outlook for now. Thanks for listening. The Elliott Wave Theorist is published by
happens. That’s the outlook for now. Thanks for listening. The Elliott Wave Theorist is published by

The Elliott Wave Theorist is published by Elliott Wave International, Inc. Mail: P.O. Box 1618, Gaines- ville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone: 770-536-0309. All contents copyright ©2012 Elliott Wave Interna- tional, Inc. Reproduction, retransmission or redistribution in any form is illegal and strictly forbidden, as is continuous and regular dissemination of specific forecasts or strategies. Otherwise, feel free to quote, cite or review if full credit is given. Typos and other such errors are corrected in the online version, which is the official final version of each issue.

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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.

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