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Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Contents
About This Book ........................................................................................ ix About These Authors ................................................................................ xiii Acknowledgments ..................................................................................... xv Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Simple Comparative Experiments .............................................. 5
Section 2.2 Basic Statistical Concepts.................................................................................. 6 Section 2.4.1 Hypothesis Testing ......................................................................................... 10 Section 2.4.3 Choice of Sample Size ................................................................................... 12 Section 2.5.1 The Paired Comparison Problem .................................................................. 17 Section 2.5.2 Advantages of the Paired Comparison Design ........................................... 18
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
vi
Contents
Chapter 9 Three-Level and Mixed-Level Factorial and Fractional Factorial Designs ................................................................................ 173
Example 9.1 The 33 Design ................................................................................................. 174 Example 9.2 The 32 Design Confounded in 3 Blocks ....................................................... 177 Example 9.3 The Spin Coating Experiment ...................................................................... 178 Example 9.4 An Experiment with Unusual Blocking Requirements ............................... 181
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Contents vii
Example 10.6 Tests on Individual Regression Coefficients ............................................ 198 Example 10.7 Confidence Intervals on Individual Regression Coefficients .................. 199
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
viii Contents
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Introduction
Theanalysisofacomplexprocessrequirestheidentificationoftargetqualityattributes thatcharacterizetheoutputoftheprocessandoffactorsthatmayberelatedtothose attributes.Oncealistofpotentialfactorsisidentifiedfromsubjectmatterexpertise,the strengthsoftheassociationsbetweenthosefactorsandthetargetattributesneedtobe quantified.Anave,onefactoratatimeanalysiswouldrequiremanymoretrialsthan necessary.Additionally,itwouldnotyieldinformationaboutwhethertherelationship betweenafactorandthetargetdependsonthevaluesofotherfactors(commonly referredtoasinteractioneffectsbetweenfactors).AsdemonstratedinDouglas MontgomerysDesignandAnalysisofExperimentstextbook,principlesofstatisticaltheory, linearalgebra,andanalysisguidethedevelopmentofefficientexperimentaldesignsfor factorsettings.Onceasubsetofimportantfactorshasbeenisolated,subsequent experimentationcandeterminethesettingsofthosefactorsthatwilloptimizethetarget qualityattributes.Fortunately,modernsoftwarehastakenadvantageoftheadvanced theory.Thissoftwarenowfacilitatesthedevelopmentofgooddesignandmakessolid analysismoreaccessibletothosewithaminimalstatisticalbackground. Designingexperimentswithspecializeddesignofexperiments(DOE)softwareismore efficient,complete,insightful,andlesserrorpronethanproducingthesamedesignby handwithtables.Inaddition,itprovidestheabilitytogeneratealgorithmicdesigns (accordingtooneofseveralpossibleoptimalitycriteria)thatarefrequentlyrequiredto accommodateconstraintscommonlyencounteredinpractice.Onceanexperimenthas beendesignedandexecuted,theanalysisoftheresultsshouldrespecttheassumptions madeduringthedesignprocess.Forexample,splitplotexperimentswithhardto changefactorsshouldbeanalyzedassuch;theconstraintsofamixturedesignmustbe incorporated;nonnormalresponsesshouldeitherbetransformedormodeledwitha generalizedlinearmodel;correlationbetweenrepeatedobservationsonanexperimental unitmaybemodeledwithrandomeffects;nonconstantvarianceintheresponsevariable
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
2DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
acrossthedesignfactorsmaybemodeled,etc.Softwareforanalyzingdesigned experimentsshouldprovideallofthesecapabilitiesinanaccessibleinterface. JMPoffersanoutstandingsoftwaresolutionforbothdesigningandanalyzing experiments.Intermsofdesign,alloftheclassicdesignsthatarepresentedinthe textbookmaybecreatedinJMP.OptimaldesignsareavailablefromtheJMPCustom Designplatform.Thesedesignsareextremelyusefulforcaseswhereaconstrained designspaceorarestrictiononthenumberofexperimentalrunseliminatesclassical designsfromconsideration.Multipledesignsmaybecreatedandcomparedwith methodsdescribedinthetextbook,includingtheFractionofDesignSpaceplot.Oncea designischosen,JMPwillrandomizetherunorderandproduceadatatable,whichthe researchermayusetostoreresults.Metadatafortheexperimentalfactorsandresponse variablesisattachedtothedatatable,whichsimplifiestheanalysisoftheseresults. TheimpressivegraphicalanalysisfunctionalityofJMPacceleratesthediscoveryprocess particularlywellwiththedynamicandinteractiveprofilersandplots.Iflabelsforplotted pointsoverlap,canbyclickinganddraggingthelabels.Selectingpointsinaplot producedfromatableselectstheappropriaterowsinthetableandhighlightsthepoints correspondingtothoserowsinallothergraphsproducedfromthetable.Plotscanbe shiftedandrescaledbyclickinganddraggingtheaxes.Inmanyothersoftwarepackages, thesechangesareeitherunavailableorrequireregeneratingthegraphicaloutput. AnadditionalbenefitofJMPistheeasewithwhichitpermitsuserstomanipulatedata tables.Datatableoperationssuchassubsetting,joining,andconcatenatingareavailable viaintuitivegraphicalinterfaces.Therelativelyshortlearningcurvefordatatable manipulationenablesnewuserstopreparetheirdatawithoutrememberinganextensive syntax.Althoughnocommandlineknowledgeisnecessary,theunderlyingJMP scriptinglanguage(JSL)scriptsfordatamanipulation(andanyotherJMPprocedure) maybesavedandeditedtorepeattheanalysisinthefutureortocombinewithother scriptstoautomateaprocess. ThissupplementtoDesignandAnalysisofExperimentsfollowsthechaptertopicsofthe textbookandprovidescompleteinstructionsandusefulscreenshotstouseJMPtosolve everyexampleproblem.Asmightbeexpected,thereareoftenmultiplewaystoperform thesameoperationwithinJMP.Inmanyofthesecases,thedifferentpossibilitiesare illustratedacrossdifferentexamplesinvolvingtherelevantoperation.Sometheoretical resultsarediscussedinthissupplement,buttheemphasisisonthepracticalapplication ofthemethodsdevelopedinthetextbook.TheJMPDOEfunctionalitydetailedhere representsafractionofthesoftwaresfeaturesfornotonlyDOE,butalsoformostother
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter1~Introduction3
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
4DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Section2.2BasicStatisticalConcepts.........................................................................................................6 Section2.4.1HypothesisTesting..............................................................................................................10 Section2.4.3ChoiceofSampleSize.........................................................................................................12 Section2.5.1ThePairedComparisonProblem......................................................................................17 Section2.5.2AdvantagesofthePairedComparisonDesign...............................................................18 Theproblemoftestingtheeffectofasingleexperimentalfactorwithonlytwolevels providesausefulintroductiontothestatisticaltechniquesthatwilllaterbegeneralized fortheanalysisofmorecomplexexperimentaldesigns.Inthischapter,wedevelop techniquesthatwillallowustodeterminethelevelofstatisticalsignificanceassociated withthedifferenceinthemeanresponsesoftwotreatmentlevels.Ratherthanonly consideringthedifferencebetweenthemeanresponsesacrossthetreatments,wealso considerthevariationintheresponsesandthenumberofrunsperformedinthe experiment.Usingattest,weareabletoquantifythelikelihood(expressedasapvalue) thattheobservedtreatmenteffectismerelynoise.Asmallpvalue(typicallytakento beonesmallerthan=0.05)suggeststhattheobserveddataarenotlikelytohave occurredifthenullhypothesis(ofnotreatmenteffect)weretrue. Arelatedquestioninvolvesthelikelihoodthatthenullhypothesisisrejectedgiventhat itisfalse(thepowerofthetest).Givenafixedsignificancelevel,(ourdefinitionof whatconstitutesasmallpvalue),theorizedvaluesforthepooledstandarddeviation, andaminimumthresholddifferenceintreatmentmeans,itispossibletosolveforthe minimumsamplesizethatisnecessarytoachieveadesiredpower.Thisprocedureis usefulfordeterminingthenumberofrunsthatmustbeincludedinadesigned experiment.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
6DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Inthefirstexamplepresentedinthischapter,ascientisthasdevelopedamodified cementmortarformulationthathasashortercuretimethantheunmodified formulation.Thescientistwouldliketotestifthemodificationhasaffectedthebond strengthofthemortar.Tostudywhetherthetwoformulations,onaverage,produce bondsofdifferentstrengths,atwosidedttestisusedtoanalyzetheobservationsfroma randomizedexperimentwith10measurementsfromeachformulation.Thenull hypothesisofthistestisthatthemeanbondstrengthsproducedbythetwoformulations areequal;thealternativehypothesisisthatmeanbondstrengthsarenotequal. Wealsoconsidertheadvantagesofapairedttest,whichprovidesanintroductiontothe notionofblocking.Thistestisdemonstratedusingdatafromanexperimenttotestfor similarperformanceoftwodifferenttipsthatareplacedonarodinamachineand pressedintometaltestcoupons.Afixedpressureisappliedtothetip,andthedepthof theresultingdepressionismeasured.Acompletelyrandomizeddesignwouldapplythe tipsinarandomordertothetestcoupons(makingonlyonemeasurementoneach coupon).Whilethisdesignwouldproducevalidresults,thepowerofthetestcouldbe increasedbyremovingnoisefromthecoupontocouponvariation.Thismaybe achievedbyapplyingbothtipstoeachcoupon(inarandomorder)andmeasuringthe differenceinthedepthofthedepressions.Aonesamplettestisthenusedforthenull hypothesisthatthemeandifferenceacrossthecouponsisequalto0.Thisprocedure reducesexperimentalerrorbyeliminatinganoisefactor. Thischapteralsoincludesanexampleofproceduresfortestingtheequalityoftreatment variances,andademonstrationofthettestinthepresenceofpotentiallyunequalgroup variances.Thisfinaltestisstillvalidwhenthegroupvariancesareequal,butitisnotas powerfulasthepooledttestinsuchsituations.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments7
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
8DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Itappearsfromtheoverlappedhistogramsthattheunmodifiedmortartendstoproduce strongerbondsthanthemodifiedmortar.Theunmodifiedmortarhasameanstrengthof 17.04kgf/cm2withastandarddeviationof0.25kgf/cm2.Themodifiedmortarhasamean strengthof16.76kgf/cm2withastandarddeviationof0.32kgf/cm2.Anavecomparison ofmeanstrengthindicatesthattheunmodifiedmortaroutperformsthemodifiedmortar. However,thedifferenceinmeanscouldsimplybearesultofsamplingfluctuation. Usingstatisticaltheory,ourgoalistoincorporatethesamplestandarddeviations(and samplesizes)toquantifyhowlikelyitisthatthedifferenceinmeanstrengthsisdueonly tosamplingerror.Ifitturnsouttobeunlikely,wewillconcludethatatruedifference existsbetweenthemortarstrengths. 11. SelectAnalyze > Fit Y by X. 12. SelectStrengthforY,ResponseandMortarforX,Grouping.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments9
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
10DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments11
Thettestreportshowsthetwosamplettestassumingequalvariances.Sincewehavea twosidedalternativehypothesis,weareconcernedwiththepvaluelabeledProb>|t|= 0.0422.Sincewehaveset=0.05,werejectthenullhypothesisthatthemeanstrengths producedbythetwoformulationsofmortarareequalandconcludethatthemean strengthofthemodifiedmortarandthemeanstrengthoftheunmodifiedmortarare (statistically)significantlydifferent.Inpractice,ournextstepwouldbetodecidefroma subjectmatterperspectiveifthedifferenceispracticallysignificant. Beforeacceptingtheconclusionofthettest,weshouldusediagnosticstocheckthe validityofassumptionsmadebythemodel.Althoughthisstepisnotshownforevery exampleinthetext,itisanessentialpartofeveryanalysis.Forexample,aquantileplot maybeusedtochecktheassumptionsofnormalityandidenticalpopulationvariances. Thoughnotshownhere,aplotoftheresidualsagainstrunordercouldhelpidentify potentialviolationsoftheassumedindependenceacrossruns(themostimportantofthe threeassumptions). 3. ClicktheredtrianglenexttoOnewayAnalysisofStrengthbyMortarandselect Normal Quantile Plot > Plot Quantile by Actual.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
12DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments13
6.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
14DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments15
Therequiredtotalsamplesizeis45.Thismeansthatweneedatleast22.5observations pergroup.Roundingup,weseethatweneedatleast23observationsfromeachgroup toachieveapowerofatleast0.9.WecouldhaveleftthePowerfieldblank,specifying onlythattheDifference to detectis0.25.TheSampleSizeandPowerplatformwould thenhaveproducedapowercurve,displayingPowerasafunctionofSample Size. 9. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. SelectWindow > Close All.
Example 2.1 Hypothesis Testing OpenFluorescence.jmp. ClickAnalyze > Fit Y by X. SelectFluorescenceforY,ResponseandTissueforX,Factor. ClickOK. ClicktheredtrianglenexttoOnewayAnalysisofFluorescencebyTissueand selectNormal Quantile Plot > Plot Quantile by Actual.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
16DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments17
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
18DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
Chapter2~SimpleComparativeExperiments19
Therootmeansquareerrorof2.315407isthepooledstandarddeviationestimatefrom thettest.Comparedtothestandarddeviationestimateof1.20fromthepaired differencetest,weseethatblockinghasreducedtheestimateofvariabilityconsiderably. Thoughwedonotworkthroughthedetailshere,itwouldbepossibletoperformthis samecomparisonfortheFluorescencedatafromExample2.1. 12. LeaveHardness-Stacked.jmpandtheFitYbyXoutputwindowopenforthe nextexercise. Example 2.3 Testing for the Equality of Variances Thisexampledemonstrateshowtotestfortheequalityoftwopopulationvariances. Section2.6ofthetextbookalsodiscusseshypothesistestingforwhetherthevarianceofa singlepopulationisequaltoagivenconstant.Thoughnotshownhere,thetestingfora singlevariancemaybeperformedintheDistributionplatform. 1. 2. ReturntotheFitYbyXplatformfromthepreviousexample. ClicktheredtrianglenexttoOnewayAnalysisofDepthbyTipandselect Unequal Variances.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
20DesignandAnalysisofExperimentsbyDouglasMontgomery:ASupplementforUsingJMP
3. SaveHardness-Stacked.jmp.
ThepvaluefortheFtest(describedinthetextbook)forthenullhypothesisofequal variances(withatwosidedalternativehypothesis)is0.8393.Thedatadonotindicatea differencewithrespecttothevariancesofdepthproducedfromTip1versusTip2.Due totheuseofaslightlydifferentdataset,theFRatioof1.1492reportedhereisdifferent fromtheratioof1.34thatappearsinthebook.Furthermore,thetextbookusesaone sidedtestwithanalternativehypothesis.Thathypothesisisthatthevarianceofthe depthproducedbyTip1isgreaterthanthatproducedbyTip2.Sincethesample standarddeviationfromTip1isgreaterthanthatfromTip2,theFRatiosfortheone andtwosidedtestsarebothequalto1.1492,butthepvaluefortheonesidedtestwould be0.4197. ItisimportanttorememberthattheFtestisextremelysensitivetotheassumptionof normality.Ifthepopulationhasheaviertailsthananormaldistribution,thistestwill rejectthenullhypothesis(thatthepopulationvariancesareequal)moreoftenthanit should.Bycontrast,theLevenetestisrobusttodeparturesfromnormality. 4. SelectWindow > Close All.
Rushing, Heath; Karl, Andrew; Wisnowski, James. Design and Analysis of Experiments by Douglas Montgomery: A Supplement for Using JMP(R). Copyright 2013, SAS Institute Inc., Cary, North Carolina, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. For additional SAS resources, visit support.sas.com/bookstore.
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