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Introduction Delays & Cancellations Causes & Cost Analysis Opportunities to Decrease Costs
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Mai 06
In 2004 more than 20% of all scheduled flights in the US and EU were either delayed or cancelled
- Delays & Cancellations US / EU in 2004 Delays & Cancellations US 2004 Total Departures: 7,129,270
Cancelled 1,8%
Delayed 21,6%
Delayed 17,5%
Ontime 76,6%
* Source: DOT OTP Statistics 2004
Ontime 79,5%
* Source: AEA Annual Report 2004
According to most transportation reporting statistics (such as those of the US DOT) only flights that departs or arrives 15+ minutes behind schedule are rated as delayed
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
A delay is an event that causes the change in schedule of a flight and/or aircrafts planned departure or arrival
- Definition of a Delays 1
Check
239
- Late Arrival / Finish: During an event the finished time will be delayed. In case of a flight event this is a delayed arrival. - Late Departure / Start: The start of an event will be delayed. This is in case of a flight event a delayed departure. - Schedule Change: The length and/or timing of an event will be changed before it has started. In respect to change publication constraints this is a schedule change. - Early Arrival / Finish: A scheduled event will start earlier than scheduled. This happens in case a flight arrives before schedule.
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
According to the delay cause, many delays are outside the responsibility of the airline
- Delay Causes -
Delay Group Ground Handling Maintenance Weather ATC Connection Airport Authorities Rotational Others
Description Delayed loading (Passenger, Baggage, Cargo, etc.), cleaning, fuelling etc, Aircraft maintenance issue (defects, late arrival from check etc.) Enroute weather, weather at departure / arrival station etc. Enroute traffic congestions, ATFM / ATC capacity restrictions etc. Departure delay because of late arrival passenger, baggage, cargo etc. Mandatory Security (Pax / Bag offload), immigration / customs issues etc. Aircraft rotation, flight or cabin crew rotation etc. Other exceptions (Industrial Action within / outside Airline)
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Mai 06
A cancellation describes a particular flight which is the airline deems or is physically not feasible to operate
- Definition of Cancellations -
A scheduled flight has to be cancelled because required resources (Aircraft, Crew etc.) were not available environmental conditions are not in-line to operate the flight according to safety rules (Weather) external capacity constraints regulated by ATC and / or Airport authorities
A scheduled flight will be cancelled because the ongoing delay of the previous event will cause a major delay of the scheduled event and could not be compensated (Lack of reserves) economical reasons in case of low passenger bookings
Because of rotational dependencies of flight events, a cancellation has an impact on its related return pair with respect to A/C and crew rotation
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
The handling of delays and cancellations are within the decision making governance of operations control
Irregularity Reasons
Aircraft ATC Cargo Airport Engineering Weather Crew Rotation Crew Rotation Aircraft Hub Capacity Fleet Slots Product
Constraints
Interfaces
Commercial
ATC
Business Objectives
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
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Introduction Delays & Cancellations Causes & Cost Analysis Opportunities to Decrease Costs
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Mai 06
At least 1/3rd of all delays are within the responsibility of the airlines and / or its suppliers
- Delay Cause Analysis Delays Causes US 2004 Total No of delayed flights: 1,568,439
Airport Authorities 0,2% Airline Control 30,7%
Connection 28,3%
Connection 4%
ATC 25%
Weather 3,6% ATC 37,1%
* Source: FAA Statistics 2004
Weather 2%
* Source: AEA Statistics 2004
Approximately 10% of all Airline related delays are caused by maintenance problems. The majority is caused by rotational problems (Aircraft, Crew, etc.)
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
Maintenance delays are not only caused by a poor Aircraft / Component reliability
- Maintenance Delays -
Maintenance Delay Reasons Aircraft Defects during transit or after positioning of aircraft (AOG) Maintenance equipment, -facilities, -tools, lack of or breakdown Non-scheduled maintenance, special checks and/or additional work Lack of spares Maintenance work execution issues (Shortages of staff etc).
Causes Analysis Poor Aircraft & Component Reliability Insufficient line maintenance process / quality (base station / outstation) according to operating requirements Check cycles / visit plan & work scope with regards to utilization constraints Visit plan quality (Level of detail, accuracy, etc.) Lack of buffers / reserves (Tools, Spares, Staff etc.)
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Mai 06
Airline departure volume does not automatically indicate poor on-time performance
- European carriers On-Time Performance 2004 On-Time Performance
95,0%
RO
90,0%
LG SN
AY SK
85,0%
JU OK CYIG JK LO MA JP OU
AZ IB TK OS LX KL BA
AF
LH
80,0%
BD
75,0%
FI OA KM
70,0%
TP
No of Departures
4 out of 5 Europes top carriers are above the calculated OTP average of 82%
* Source: AEA Annual Consumer Report 2004
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Mai 06
The analysis of regularity within Europe intends to show that big carriers cancel more flights than smaller ones
- European carriers Regularity 2004 Regularity
100,3%
FI RO
99,8%
AY CY KM
99,3%
JP MA LG TP OK OA BD IG
LX KL IB BA LH
98,8%
SN
OS AZ
LO
98,3%
SK JU OU
AF
No of Departures
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Mai 06
A specific model is used to calculate the overall Profit / Loss for each single flight event
- Profit & Loss Calculation Model for a single flight event -
Profit / Loss
Cost
Variable Costs Landing Fees Catering Fuel Travel Costs Flight Deck ATC charges ...
Irregularity Costs Version Change Aircraft Change Equipment Change Diversion Re-Routing Cancellation ...
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Mai 06
The duration of a delay has a major impact on the overall delay costs of a particular flight event
- Delay Costs according to Delay duration $
Crew Per Diem + Acc + Trans Passenger Acc + Trans M&E Spare Provisioning Cargo Rev / GHC / QRT Snacks / Meals Handling Surcharges Passenger Re-Bookings Crew Duty-Time Costs Aerodrome Surcharges NCC Support Airport Services M&E Repair / Man Hours Jet Fuel
1h 2h 3h 4h 5h 6h 7h 8h
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Mai 06
Maintenance & aircraft ownership costs represent 35% of the estimated operating delay costs
- Delay Cost Analysis US carriers 2004 -
Ow nership 17%
Other 6%
Jet Fuel
Fuel 30%
Other Total
In the US a total of 86.5 million ATC delay minutes were recorded in 2004 with an estimated $4.8 billion in direct operating costs
Dubai AGIFORS Operations Conference 2006
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Mai 06
In addition to Operating Costs the total delay cost should also include Passengers Time
- A320 Delay Cost Example -
Cost per Passenger / Hour1 Cost per Passenger / Minute Total Cost / Minute2
Cost Calculation based on average A320 capacity of 150 passenger with load factor of 80%