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Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering

by

Dr. Deepankar Choudhury


Humboldt Fellow, JSPS Fellow, BOYSCAST Fellow

Professor Department of Civil Engineering IIT Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India.
Email: dc@civil.iitb.ac.in URL: http://www.civil.iitb.ac.in/~dc/ Lecture 29

Module 7

Seismic Hazard Analysis

IIT Bombay, DC

Code Implications
UBC 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

IIT Bombay, DC

Code Implications
AASHTO 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years ??

IIT Bombay, DC

Example Case Study on Gujarat, India


Ref: Ph.D. Thesis of Jaykumar Shukla (2013), IIT Bombay, Mumbai, India.
IIT Bombay, DC 5

Location of Gujarat, India

IIT Bombay, DC

Urban areas selected


Kachchh Anjar Bhuj Dholavira Gandhidham Mandavi
Saurashtra
Amreli Bhavnagar Dholera Dwarka Jamnagar Junagadh Morvi Porbundar Rajkot Surendranagar Veraval

Mainland Gujarat
Ahmedabad Baroach Gandhinagar Mehsana Palanpur Patan Surat Vadodara Valsad

25 Cities studied representing the all seismic zones in Gujarat. 4 port sites are also studied for site specific ground motion estimations (Kandla port, Mundra Port, Hazira Port and Dahej Port )
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Location of urban areas selected

Seismic Zones of Gujarat, IS: 1893-Part I (2002)


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Components of hazard study


Earthquake Catalogue Sensitivity Analysis Regional Seismicity Parameters

Seismic Hazard Estimation for Gujarat region


Site specific ground motions for Ports Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
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Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA)

Seismicity of Gujarat, India


Pakistan

Gujarat, India
Seismotectonic setting of the region

Arabian Sea
Seismic Zones of Gujarat Region as per IS:1893 Part I (2002)
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Epicenters of earthquakes recorded from 2007 to 2011 ( modified after ISR report 2010-11)

Seismicity across Gujarat


Year Region Kachchh 201011* Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat Kachchh 2009 Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat Kachchh Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat Numbers of Earthquake recorded Mw4 Mw(3 to Mw(2 to Mw<2 Total 3.9) 2.9) 1 51 292 1155 1499
100

% of total Earthquake occured in Gujarat

2 1 4 ----5 2 ---

12 2 72 6 --52 12 3

101 11 422 22 36 343 221 17

571 38

684 52

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

2010-11* 2009 2008

1594 2092 420 65 493 424 26 448 41 893 659 46

Kachchh

2008

Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat Gujarat Region

Note: * up to March 2011

The seismicity within the Gujarat is not same across the Gujarat. The single seismicity parameter for entire Gujarat may not represent the true seismicity within the Gujarat 7/11/2013

Seismicity in Saurashtra

Seismicity migration is observed in the Saurashtra


Modified after ISR Report 2009
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Earthquake Moment Magnitude (Mw) Cumulative Earthquake occurence

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 1800 1820 1840

Catalogue completeness
1962

Catalogue Completeness is evaluated in the present study using CUVI (Tinti and Mulargia, 1985) method and Stepps method (Stepp, 1973)

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

Time (Years)

7/11/2013

Shukla and Choudhury (2012) in NHESS, 12, 2019-2037.

Regional Seismicity parameters


2.25 2.00 1.75 1.50
Entire Gujarat Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat Kachchh

Log N

1.25 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Gutenberg Richter recurrence relations are derived using Least Square Fit method using prepared earthquake catalogue for Mw 4.

Earthquake Moment Magnitude (Mw)

Past seismicity

Rastogi et al. (2013) recommended b value = 0.67 for Saurashtra region.


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Region

a-value

b-value 0.64 0.62 0.41 0.51

G-R relation Log N=4.03 0.64 Mw Log N=4.02 0.62 Mw Log N=3.41 0.41 Mw Log N=4.13 0.51 Mw

R2 0.9783 0.9370 0.9821 0.9899

used (Year)
Saurashtra Mainland Kachchh Gujarat 135 175 189 189 4.03 4.02 3.41 4.13

Choudhury and Shukla (2011) in Disaster Advances, 4(2), 47-59.

b-value using ML method


Another popular method for estimation of bvalue is by using Maximum Likelihood (ML) method (Aki, 1965; Utsu, 1965)

1 ln(10)(u mmin )
b-value using ML estimate 0.526 0.572

u is the sampling average of the magnitudes


Region Kachchh Saurashtra

Mainland Gujarat
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0.642

Probability models for earthquake recurrence


In time predictable methodology many researchers has applied various probability models to predict the next earthquake within the some specified time. In another words fitting the recurrence time of earthquake using various probability distributions. Key researcher are Utsu (1984); Nishenko and Buland (1987); Sykes and Nishenko (1984); Rikitake (1991); Shimazaki (2002); Kagan and Knopoff (1987); Papazachos (1989); Ferreas (2003, 2005); Yilmaz et al. (2004); Shankar and Papadimitriou (2004) and many others.

Specifically for Indian Peninsula, Pervez and Ram (1997, 1999); Tripathi (2006); Jaiswal (2006) and Yadav et al. (2008)
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Various Probability Distributions


No 1 2 3 4 5 6 Year 1819 1845 1848 1856 1864 1871 Month 6 4 4 12 4 1 Date 16 19 26 25 29 31 Date (Years) 1819.5 1845.333 1848.333 1857 1864.333 1871.083 Latitude Longitude (0N) (0E) 24 23.8 24.4 20 22.3 21.2 69 68.9 72.7 73 72.8 72.9 Mw 7.8 6.3 6 5.7 5.7 5 25.833 3 8.667 7.333 6.75 Recurrenc e Time (Years Location Kachchh Lakhpat Mount Abu Surat
0.8 1.0 0.9

Surat

Cumulative Probability

Ahmedabad

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

1872
1882 1903 1919 1921 1935 1938 1950 1956 1963 1965 1966

4
6 1 4 10 7 3 6 7 7 3 5

14
10 14 21 26 20 14 14 21 13 26 27

1872.372
1882.5 1903.083 1919.391 1921.833 1935.583 1938.25 1950.5 1956.583 1963.583 1965.25 1966.417

21.75
23.2 24 22 25 21 21.6 24 23.3 24.9 24.4 24.46

72.15
71.38 70 72 68 72.4 75 71.2 70 70.3 70 68.69

5
5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7 6 5.3 6 5.3 5.1 5

1.289
10.128 20.583 16.308 2.442 13.75 2.667 12.25 6.083 7 1.667 1.167

Bhavnagar
Bhachau Kachchh Bhavnagar Kachchh Surat Satpura Kachchh Kachchh Pakistan Kachchh Pakistan

Pareto Distribution Rayleigh Distribution Weibull Distribution Exponential Distribution Earthquakes Earthquake (Mw >= 5) in Gujarat region

19
20 21 22 23 24 25

1970
1976 1985 1993 2001 2006 2007

2
6 4 8 1 3 11

13
4 7 24 26 7 6

1970.167
1976.5 1985.333 1993.732 2001.083 2006.25 2007.933

24.6
24.51 24.36 20.6 23.44 23.79 21.16

68.61
68.45 69.74 71.4 70.31 70.73 70.54

5.2
5.1 5 5 7.7 5.7 5

3.75
6.333 8.833 8.399 7.351 5.167 1.683

Kachchh
Allah Band Kachchh Rajula Kachchh Gedi, Junagadh

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Choudhury and Shukla (2011) in Disaster Advances, 4(2), 47-59.

Selection of the best distribution


Exponential Distribution
Parameters
Maximum Log Likelihood A-D value Modified K-S test value P-value

Rayleigh Distribution

Pareto Distribution

Weibull Distribution

= 7.851 -76.016 0.760 0.164

=11.436 -74.255 2.643 0.277

=0.573 -79.189 0.841 0.170

=0.118 -71.868 0.273 0.105

0.554
T

0.051

0.502

0.955

Weibull Model

Rayleigh Model

Exponential Model

f (T )

()T

Pareto Model

T f (T ) 2 Exp

T 2 2

f (T )

f (T , , x0 ) x T
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( 1)

Recurrence Estimation
Probability Distribution Model Recurrence interval (years) Predicted 7.853 16.173 3.135 7.011 Last Event occurred on Next Earthquake Expected on Study Date Considered (Nov 10th 2009) 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 2009.85 Year Left from Present Date Next earthquake expected before Oct 2015* Feb 2024 Jan 2011 Dec 2014*

Exponential Rayleigh Pareto Weibull

2007.933 2007.933 2007.933 2007.933

2015.786 2024.106 2011.068 2014.944

5.936 14.256 1.218 5.094

*Note: This research output published in Journal Disaster Advances in Aug. 2011 was validated by actual occurrence of earthquake of September 2011.
7/11/2013

Choudhury and Shukla (2011) in Disaster Advances, 4(2), 47-59.

Comparison of Earthquake return periods

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Choudhury and Shukla (2011) in Disaster Advances, 4(2), 47-59.

b-value proposed & those by other researchers


Study Number 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Application area b- value Reference

Kachchh Saurashtra Mainland Entire Kachchh Saurashtra Mainland Saurashtra Gujarat


Gujarat Kachchh Kachchh

13
14 15 16 17 18

Gujarat
Gujarat Gujarat Peninsular Gujarat region Gujarat

0.417 0.64 0.62 0.51 0.526 0.572 0.642 0.67 0.87 ( 0.06) 0.72 0.43 0.71 0.03 0.7 to 0.9 0.07 0.4 to 0.6
0.4 to 0.8 0.92 0.55 0.89

Based on least square fit, Present Study

Based on ML estimate, Present Study

Rastogi et al. (2013) WCE NDMA (2010) Tripathi et al., (2005) Ashara et al., (2006) Jaiswal (2006)

Periods for study taken (1820-2008) (1872-2008) (1872-2008) (1820-2008) (1820-2009) (1872-2009) (1872-2009) (1970-2010) (*1800-2009) (1842-2002)

Raghukanth (2010)
Kolathayar et al. (2011) for Clustered catalogue Kolathayar et al. (2011) for declustered catalogue Jaiswal and Sinha (2007) Bhatia et al. (1999) Thaker et al. (2012)

(1250-2008)
(250 B.C. -2010) (250 B.C. -2010) (1842-2002) 1818-2008

Shukla and Choudhury (2012) in NHESS, 12, 2019-2037.

DSHA - Some starting points


Entire Gujarat is divided into three regions Kachchh Saurashtra Mainland Gujarat

Earthquake catalogue is divided as per these three regions


Only fault sources are used as seismic sources Poisson distribution for earthquake occurrence

All the faults are Normal faults, depth ranging 10 to 15km from ground surface.

DSHA requirements
Seismicity model: describes geographical distribution of potential active source zones (seismotectonic sources) and distribution of magnitudes in each source. (Fault Map and Seismicity parameters- maximum earthquake magnitude) Attenuation model: describes effect of an earthquake originating from a specific seismotectonic source, at any given site, as function of magnitude and source-to-site distance (Ground Motion Prediction Equations GMPEs)
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DSHA
1
Describes the potential for dangerous, earthquake-related natural phenomena i.e. Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE)

The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.57g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 on the Narmada Son Fault at a distance of 11.42 km from the site.

Sometimes called Deterministic Scenario in Magnitude, Distance pair i.e. (5.7, 11.42)

Selection of urban areas

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Fault Map of study region


26 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 26

Total 40 major faults are considered. Length derived from referred literature and maps. Maximum earthquake magnitude calculated from relationships recommended by few researchers considering one third length as rupture surface.

25
F18 F48 F24 F49 F27 F25A F5 F26 F28 F29 F6 F3 F7 F8 F10 F9 F43 F45 F46 F1 F30 F31 F32 F33 F35 F34 F37 F41

25

24
F14 F13 F15

F17 F21 F23

24

23

F12

23

22

F2

F4

22

F38

F42

21
Legend :
n th Fault, Fn

21

20

20

19 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74

19 75

Shukla and Choudhury (2012) in NHESS, 12, 2019-2037. 7/11/2013

GMPEs selected
GMPE Abrahamson and Silva (1997) Boore et al. (1997) Campbell (1997) (Rock site definition is in accordance with NEHRP seismic code) (for Mw > 5 and sites with distance to seismogenic rupture 60 km in active tectonic region) Sadig (1997) Shallow crustal earthquake (Moment magnitude Mw = 4 to 8 and of California distance up to 100 km). Toro et al. (1997) Crustal earthquake of (For spectral period less than 0.2 sec, Intraplate region in Eastern values limited to 1.5 g and periods less and Central North America than 1 sec are limited to 3 g.) Frankel et al. Intraplate region of Central (1996) and Eastern North America Raghukanth and Peninsular India (For sites with shear wave velocity Vs Iyengar (2007) 3.6 km/sec.)
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Applicability Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake Shallow crustal earthquake of Western north America Worldwide shallow crustal earthquake

Remark

Various GMPEs
0.1

Spectral accelerations (g)

Abra.-Silva (1997) Boore-Joyner-Fumal (1997) Campbell (1997) Frankel (1996) Sadigh (1997) Rock Toro (1997) Raghu Kanth & Iyengar (2007)

0.01

1E-3 0
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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Distance from Hypocenter (km)