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May 8, 2013
Stock Rating:
Real Estate
Sector Performer
Sector Weighting:
Market Weight
12-18 mo. Price Target WB-TSX (5/8/13) Key Indices: None NM $10. 32-$14.35 38.0M 28.9M Shrs 57,000 $541.5M $0.98 / 6.8% September $11. 13 per Shr NM $257.4M Nil $422.8M No
Prev Current
3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) 52-week Range Shares Outstanding Float Avg. Daily Trading Vol. Market Capitalization Dividend/Div Yield Fiscal Year Ends Book Value 2013 ROE (E) LT Debt Preferred Common Equity Convertible Available
EBITDA ($ mlns.)
FQ2/13 EBITDA was $73.7 mln, close to our $73.2 mln estimate, up from $69.4 mln a year ago. Skier visits during FQ2 declined slightly to 1,330,000, from 1,338,000 a year ago, while ETP rose 4.2% to $53.44 from $51.31 last year. Revenues were $132.2 mln, up 5.4% from FQ2/12. Skier visits for the 2012-2013 season reached 2.0 mln at the end of April, down slightly from 2.08 mln last year. The mix of skier visits was relatively unchanged from last year, with local and regional guests estimated at 62% and destination visitors estimated at 38%, vs. 61% and 39% last year. On Jan. 18, WB announced an $18MM capital investment, involving two new lift upgrades at Whistler Blackcomb, expected to be open for the 2013 -2014 ski season. The upgrades should improve skier experience and increase resort capacity (capacity at the upgraded lifts will rise +56%). WB trades at 10.1x F2013E EBITDA and 12.0x F2013E AFFO. We rate WB SP, balancing an attractive fully covered 6.8% yield and best-in-class assets with its limited comparable peer group and relatively fair valuation. Our 12 to 18-month PT is $14.00 (from $13.25), or ~10.0x F2013E EBITDA.
$89. 2E
10.1x
AFFO per Share 2012 2013 2014 P/AFFO 2012 2013 2014
$1.19E
12.0x
Company Description Whistler Blackcomb operates the largest ski and fourseason mountain resort in North America, with over 2 mln annual skier visits and the most vertical, skiable terrain, lifts, snowfall, and trails. www.whistlerblackcomb.com Alex Avery, CFA, MRICS Chris Girard, CFA Troy MacLean, CFA Brad Sturges, CFA
13-122972 2013
CIBC World Markets does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. See "Important Disclosures" section at the end of this report for important required disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable.
CIBC World Markets Inc., P.O. Box 500, 161 Bay Street, Brookfield Place, Toronto, Canada M5J 2S8 (416) 594-7000
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Sector Performer
Alex Avery, CFA, MRICS (416-594-8179) Alex.Avery@cibc.ca Chris Girard, CFA (416-956-3807) Chris.Girard@cibc.ca Troy MacLean, CFA (416-956-3643) Troy.MacLean@cibc.ca Brad Sturges, CFA (416-594-7399) Brad Sturges@cibc.ca
Company Description Whistler Blackcomb operates the largest ski and four-season mountain resort in North America, with more than 2 mln annual skier visits, the most vertical, skiable terrain, lifts, snowfall, and trails. The company holds a 75% interest in Whistler L.P. and Blackcomb L.P. WB's IPO was completed during November 2010. Strategy Whistler Blackcombs overall strategy is to grow the total number of visitors that visit the resort and maximize the ensuing effective ticket price (ETP) and related revenues. Leading up to the 2010 Winter Olympic Games, over $150 million was invested to upgrade the infrastructure at Whistler Blackcomb. Whistler plans to leverage the exposure created by Olympic media coverage through targeted marketing efforts to drive future growth in destination guests to the resort. Investment Thesis: Sector Performer - UNIQUE AND ICONIC MOUNTAIN RESORT: Whistler is the most commercially successful mountain resort in North America, generating industry high skier visits and EBITDA margins. - ATTRACTIVE YIELD: The current 6.8% dividend yield provides very attractive income and serves to reduce the agency risk associated with many other similar investments with no dividends. Whistler's dividend policy helps focus the company on maximizing the operating performance of the resort. - LIMITED TRACK RECORD, LIQUIDITY AND COMPARABILITY: The company has only been public for two ski seasons, limiting historical comparability. WB's ~$540 million market cap limits trading liquidity. There are very few comparable companies that trade in the public market.
Total Return 2011 2012 (11.9%) 15.0% 8.0% 9.1% (3.9%) 24.1%
Management Dave Brownlie - President and CEO Jeremy Black - Senior VP and CFO www.whistlerblackcomb.com
Financial Metric EBITDA ($mlns) YoY Change AFFO Per Share YoY Change
Earnings Summary F2012A $85.2 13.4% $1.12 13.1% Earnings Multiples F2012A 10.6x F2012A 12.7x F2012A 87%
Overall Visitor Mix F2013E $89.2 4.7% $1.19 6.2% F2014E $94.5 5.9% $1.28 7.6%
EV/EBITDA MULTIPLES Whistler Blackcomb AFFO Multiples Whistler Blackcomb AFFO Payout Ratio Whistler Blackcomb
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% F2007 F2008 F2009 Local/Regional F2010 Destination F2011 F2012
Resort Revenue Breakdown: Fiscal 2010-2012 (in thousands) Fiscal 2010 Fiscal 2011 Resort Revenues Lift Operations 43% 51% Retail and Rental Ops 8% 17% Ski School Operations 17% 9% Other Resort Operations 11% 10% Food and Beverage Ops 22% 12% Total Revenue 100% 100%
Average: 2,043
2,050 1,745 1,989
2,174
2,190 1,878
2,150*
1,667
2,030
2,131
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
*Management's estimated skier visits excluding the impact of the Olympic Winter Games.
$36.05
$45.09
$47.80
$44.57*
$47.06
$49.23
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
*The 09/10 ski season was adversely impacted by the Olympic Winter Games.
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Q2/F13 Results
Q2/F13 EBITDA was $73.7 million, up +6.2% from $69.4 million a year ago and in line with our $73.2 million estimate. Q2/F13 EBITDA benefitted from higher pricing and volumes compared to the same quarter last year, partly offset by an increase in operating expenses. FQ2 is the most important quarter from a financial perspective and typically accounts for 80%+ of annual EBITDA. Q2/F13 resort revenue was $132.2 million, up from $125.5 million a year ago, boosted by a +4.2% higher effective ticket price (ETP) and higher revenue per visit driven by strong results across all divisions. Resort operating expenses increased to $50.3 million, from $48.2 million a year ago, mainly due to the increased volume of snow school lessons and higher food and beverage volumes. SG&A costs increased +3.2% over last year to $8.2 million. Skier visits for the 2012-2013 season reached 2.0 million as of April 30, 2013, slightly below 2.08 million as of April 30, 2012. The visitor mix for the 2012 2013 ski season, up until April 30, 2013, is estimated at approximately 62% of visits were from local and regional guests and approximately 38% were from destination guests, compared to approximately 61% and 39%, respectively, in the comparable period in the prior year. The six month period ended March 31, 2013 included most of the Easter vacation period (March 29 to April 1, 2013); in the prior year the Easter vacation period fell in FQ3 (April 6 to April 9, 2012). The six months ended March 31, 2013 also included the new B.C. statutory holiday Family Day on February 11, 2013, while 2012 was a leap year with an extra operational day on February 29, 2012. The timing of holiday periods and operational days can have a meaningful effect on the comparability of results between periods. Destination skiers tend to provide higher ETP and account for a s ignificantly higher proportion of non-lift-ticket revenues relative to local and regional visitors, and have historically accounted for closer to 50% of total visits. While regional visits drive less non-lift-ticket revenues, they provide stability and are less impacted by global economic volatility compared to destination visits. Effective ticket price during Q2/F13 increased by +4.2% to $53.44 from $51.31 a year ago.
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Well Capitalized
At Q2/F13 Whistler had a $77.1 million cash balance. Debt to F2013E EBITDA was 2.9x at March 31, before considering the cash balance.
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
1 Qtr. 2012 Current 2013 Prior 2013 Current 2014 Current $10.7A $10.2A $10.2A --
1 Qtr. 2012 Current 2013 Prior 2013 Current 2014 Current -----
2 Qtr. -----
3 Qtr. -----
4 Qtr. -----
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Analyst Certification: Each CIBC World Markets research analyst named on the front page of this research report, or at the beginning of any subsection hereof, hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed herein accurately reflect such research analyst's personal views about the company and securities that are the subject of this report and all other companies and securities mentioned in this report that are covered by such research analyst and (ii) no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by such research analyst in this report. Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by CIBC World Markets are compensated from revenues generated by various CIBC World Markets businesses, including the CIBC World Markets Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. CIBC World Markets generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, CIBC World Markets generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, CIBC World Markets may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised tha t any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest.
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered by CIBC World Markets Inc.:
Stock Prices as of 05/09/2013: Whistler Blackcomb Holdings Inc. (2g) (WB-TSX, $14.25, Sector Performer) Important disclosure footnotes that correspond to the footnotes in this table may be found in the "Key to Important Disclosure Footnotes" section of this report.
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
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In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE OF CIBC WORLD MARKETS INC. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WHISTLER BLACKCOMB HOLDINGS INC. (WB)
Date 01/16/2011 05/13/2011 08/15/2011 02/10/2012 08/09/2012 12/13/2012 Change Type Closing Price 12.80 11.60 9.64 11.10 11.50 12.50 Rating SO SP SP SP SP SP Price Target 13.75 12.25 11.00 12.00 12.25 13.25 Coverage Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S Alex Av ery, CFA, MRIC S
In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Sector Weightings**
**Broader market averages refer to the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada. "Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquid ity issues. ***Restricted due to a potential conflict of interest.
Real Estate Sector includes the following tickers: AAR.UN, ACC, AP.UN, AX.UN, BEI.UN, BOX.UN, BPO, BRE, CAR.UN, CRR.UN, CSH.UN, CUF.UN, CWT.UN, D.UN, EXE, FCR, HR.UN, INN.UN, KMP, KRE.UN, LW, MRT.UN, NPR.UN, NWH.UN, PAR.UN, REF.UN, REI.UN, RMM.UN, RYL, WB. *Although the investment recommendations within the three -tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by CIBC World Markets Inc. do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with NYSE and NASD rules, CIBC World Markets Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Sector Outperformer, hold ratings to securities rated Sector Perfor mer, and sell ratings to securities rated Sector Underperformer without taking into consideration the analyst's sector weighting.
Important disclosures required by IIROC Rule 3400, including potential conflicts of interest information, our system for rating investment opportunities and our dissemination policy can be obtained by visiting CIBC World Markets on the web at http://researchcentral.cibcwm.com under 'Quick Links' or by writing to CIBC World Marke ts Inc., Brookfield Place, 161 Bay Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2S8, Attention: Research Disclosures Request.
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In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
Legal Disclaimer
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Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if a ny, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the repo rt. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. CIBC World Markets suggests that, prior to acting on any of the recommendations herein, Canadian retail clients of CIBC World Markets contact one of our client advisers in your jurisdiction to discuss your particular circumstances. Non -client recipients of this report who are not institutional investor clients of CIBC World Markets should consult with an independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. CIBC World Markets will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. 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In-l ine Qua rter; Strong P ri ci ng Power; Ref ina nci ng Opportunity Nea rs - Ma y 08, 2013
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