The world economy expands but at a slow pace

Posted: 14 January, 2014 by Admin in capitalist crisis, Capitalist ideology, Economics, Imperialism and antiimperialism, Limits o capitalism, !orld economy

0 by Michael Roberts 201" ended #it$ all t$e %ey sectors o t$e #orld economy e&panding, at least according to t$e mont$ly purc$asing managers inde&es 'P(Is) or *ecember+ ,$e P(Is $a-e been regarded as t$e most .$ig$- re/uercy0 i+e most immediate measures o economic acti-ity in -arious countries+ 1ut remember, t$e P(Is are only sur-eys o $o# #ell corporate managers t$in% t$ey are doing+ ,$ey are not $ard data on t$e e&pansion or contraction o industrial output or in so-called ser-ice sectors+ ,$e combined P(Is or manu acturing and ser-ices in *ecember loo% li%e t$is:

E-ery#$ere is e&panding, e-en t$e Euro2one as a #$ole+ 1ut t$e pace o e&pansion slo#ed o-erall or t$e #orld P(I, and in t$e 34, t$e 35, Japan and most o t$e ma6or emerging economies+ 4till e&pansion it is, i only at a moderate pace+ !it$in t$e Euro2one, 4pain #as a little better, at least in its ser-ices sector, but 7rance and Italy remain depressed+ 8ermany, o course, continues to be t$e gro#t$ leader in t$e region, but at a slig$tly slo#er pace+ ,$e Euro2one P(I implies a gro#t$ rate o about 0+29 : t$at0s all+

,$e $ugely acclaimed 35 .reco-ery0 'see my post, $ttp:;;t$ene&trecession+#ordpress+com;201";12;0<;t$e-u%s-great-autumn-reco-ery;) #as not /uite so ast in *ecember+ =nd t$ere remains a big gap bet#een t$e P(I or 35 ser-ices 't$e most important part o t$e 35 economy) and t$e reality o ser-ices sector gro#t$+ !e0ll see #$et$er t$e $ard data #ill rise to meet t$e $ig$ P(I or -ice -ersa+ I t$e P(I is rig$t, t$en t$e 35 ended t$e year gro#ing at nearly a 29 real 8*P rate+

!$at about t$e #orld0s leading capitalist economy, t$e 34> !ell, t$e P(Is suggest e&pansion but at a slig$tly slo#er pace in *ecember+ (y o#n combined I4( measure s$o#s t$at t$e 34 is still in lo#-gro#t$ mode+

,$e e-en more re/uent indicator o acti-ity 'but less reliable or t$at), t$e EC?I measure, also s$o#s t$at t$e 34 remains in lo# gro#t$ mode but #it$ some signs o a slig$t pic%ing up in pace+

,$e usual $ype about massi-e @mas sales by retailers bot$ in t$e 34 and in t$e 35 turned out to be 6ust t$at : $ype+ ,$e s$ops e&perienced relati-ely dismal sales despite internet buying and massi-e discounts on items+ =ccording to 4$opper,ra%, 34 retailers posted t$eir lo#est $oliday sales gro#t$ in our years+ 4ales bet#een ,$an%sgi-ing and C$ristmas rose 2+A9, compared #it$ "9 a year earlier, #$ile t$e number o people #al%ing into stores declined 14+B9+ It #as a similar story in t$e 35+ Couse$olds continue to su er alls in real income and so t$ey are not increasing spending muc$ beyond essentials+ ,$e misery continues or most+