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SATVIK INCORPORATED
Proprietary of Satvik Inc
CUSTOMER/MARKETING ANALYTICS
OPERATIONAL ANALYTICS
RISK ANALYTICS
ANALYTICS ROADMAP
ABOUT US ABOUT US
SATVIK, a new age information management solution provider, delivers real results to global businesses, ensuring highest level of efficiency. Satvik offers a consulting-led, integrated portfolio of Analytical & Mobility solutions, delivered through its unique Universal Network Delivery Model. We have long term customer engagements with Fortune 1000 companies such as Nokia, Samsung, Nestle, TYCO, Research in Motion (RIM), Wachovia, Nissan, United Bank, LG, Siemens Gigaset, etc. providing various analytics and mobility solutions. Headquartered in San Francisco, Satvik offers Analytics & Mobility Solutions for organizations across the globe. We provide high quality services to our global clients through our offices in San Francisco, Dubai, Brussels and Bangalore. Our global delivery model comprises the right synthesis of on-shore and off-shore delivery systems to provide cost effective solutions to our clients. Satvik has a large pool of Domain Consultants, Statisticians, Mobile Technology Architects, Social Media Analysts,Web Analysts & Technical Architects who have executed many descriptive predictive analytics projects for large multi national corporations across the globe.
Doha Bank
Answers the questions such as What happened, When, Who, How many etc
Eg :- Western region is not meeting the targets so create a program to cover western region
Answers the questions such as how do we identify and target our most profitable customers, What will be the impact if we change the price or service of the products, How do we detect frauds, which of the customers are likely to leave us in future?
Includes Predictive models, Forecasts, Customer scoring, ROI Analysis etc Predicts future behavior and enables proactive decisions Eg :- Western region is not meetings targets, Customers of particular profile are likely to leave this summer so create a specific program to retain them
USE OF STATISTICS
HIGH
Development of Rigorous analysis of models Transition of current reports Data to identify Audit / Validate patterns model Tracking of models Forecasting & Simulation Trend analysis
LEVEL OF INNOVATION
Data import and data stitching from multiple sources Variable Capping, missing value, outlier treatments Data Cleaning Data quality management
Standard & ad-hoc reporting Tool based dashboards with drill down capabilities Prepare action oriented / executive reports Automation of management information systems reporting
Data mining
Data integration from disparate systems ETL Data mapping & meta data creation Building data mart
Segmentation
Hypothesis validation
LOW
DATA MART CREATION DATA CLEANING
DASHBOARD / REPORTING
DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS
ADVANCED ANALYTICS
AD HOC ANALYSIS
AUTOMOTIVE
HIGH TECH
CUSTOMER/MARKETING ANALYTICS
CUSTOMER/MARKETING
Customer/Marketing Analytics provides a set of tools and predictive modeling solutions which help in increasing customer value and marketing returns
QUESTIONS ADDRESSED Who are my target customers? Are the target customers cost sensitive ? How brand loyal are my customers? How to retain my customers? How to increase customer spending? Whom can I target to cross-sell the profitable items? Were the promotion programs successful? What is the ROI of each campaign? What is the likelyhood that a customer would accept the offer? What are the profiles of website visitors? How many follower are there in twitter?
SOLUTIONS Profitability Analysis Customer Segmentation Customer Life Time Value Customer ChurnAnalysis, Customer Retention Market Basket Analysis, RFM Analysis, Channel Optimization, Pricing Analytics Cross-sell Options Campaign Effectiveness Analysis, ROI Analysis Customer Segmentation and Offer optimization Web Sales and Traffic Rates Web Traffic Segmentation and Target Marketing
SOLUTION APPROACH
SEGMENTATION STUDY
Problem approached through the customer service database of client available at service centers
Examine Group Behavior Develop a scoring model for Customers
SOLUTION APPROACH
Clustering Customer Behavior Modeling and Assignment of Score Return on Investment (RoI) Analysis
Use of Advances Statistical Analysis to bring out tacit and explicit insights.
S2 S3 S4
SOLUTION APPROACH
2000 Labor Revenue 1500 1000 500 0 -10% -500 Total Revenue Share 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
The two potential segments are of similar socio-economic profile as the ideal segment
The other segment of interest had very low levels of customer engagement
BUSINESS RECOMMENDATION
Behavioral change among the customers falling in the two groups of interest represented over 12 Million $ of revenue to be gained annually
Subsequently the client ensured that the customers falling into each segment were identified and measures were taken to increase their loyalty
SOLUTION APPROACH
Customer Score was developed through Discriminant Analysis The analysis helps in the assignment of customers into the 4 different groups based on likelihood ratio of key behavioral traits
BUSINESS RECOMMENDATION
CAMPAIGN DESIGN
The identification of customers falling into each of the 4 buckets was followed by development of campaigns to address the requirements of the high potential customers.
CHOOSE THE COMBINATION OF TEST AND CONTROL GROUPS, OFFERS, CAMPAIGN PERIOD AND MEASUREMENT PERIOD
The customers were then divided into test and control groups for campaign execution
ACTIVITY FLOW IN SCORING PHASE
SOLUTION APPROACH
The study showed 75% reduction in customer attrition in the group that was identified as high attrition. The resulting visits showed an average of 4.5 visits per customer resulting in an average revenue increase of 128%.
AVG REVENUE
Targeted marketing campaigns administered to the low engagement group resulted in increase of average visits per customer to 5.3. The resulting revenue increase was calculated as 86%
Test
Control
BUSINESS RECOMMENDATION
The targeted marketing campaigns for the two segments resulted in an average of 238% RoI on Marketing efforts.
3,868
2,709 1,555 1,096 1,244 4,923 4,275
Total 134,000 active customers end Q1 2009 Decreasing Customer Portfolio in Q1 2009 Aging Customers, from 34 to 44 years, average 40 years Increase in Customer base that can be mailed to Decrease in profitability (3% NI Growth / Active Customer) Net income from employment is stable at 1.250 In average customers stay less than 3 years with us Only 25% of the Customers have more than one account, only 9,8% have more than 1 Product (except PPI) The median turnover is 5000 Euros
140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2006 Cash Loan 2007 Auto Loan 2008 Retail Finance 2009
134.100
Response Modeling Behaviour Modeling Pricing Models Profitability Models Lifetime Value Models
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES These models were built, tested and validated. We implemented a series of models for:
Model Based
Random
Top 60% of population capture 80% of responders Model based selection can enhance response (/conversion) significantly
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
REACTIVATION MODEL
3.0% 2.5%
Model Based
Random
Resp. Rate
Reactivation rate drops after 36 months of inactivity Reactivation Model improves reactivation by 173% Peaks from 0- 12 months < 1% reactivate after 48 months
# Inactive Months
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
+ Lift
1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0%
- Degrade
0.5% 0.5%
10
10
10
Response Deciles
Response Deciles
Response Decile Gross Marketing Return Incremental Volume Cumulative Marketing Spend 1 2 3 4 5
Response Deciles
6 7 8 9 10
Monthly
Business Objective:
1 2 65 45
3 4 5 6 30 20 15 10
Campaigns
CARE
CMS
Branch
DM
TS
S2S
BUSINESS BENEFIT
Incremental income of USD 30 Mill for three quarters with improved Marketing ROI of 23.54%
BUSINESS BENEFIT
Tremendous improvement in Marketing ROI month on month for model implementation
OPERATIONS ANALYTICS
OPERATIONS ANALYTICS
Operations Analytics helps in streamlining and optimizing the operations in both product and service organizations with the use of analytical techniques such as predictive modeling, forecasting and optimization SOLUTIONS Performance Score Cards Category Management and Pricing Optimization Arima, Markov Chain Modeling, Logistic regression Inventory Turns and stock levels Sales and Margin Rates Network Utilization and Zone Routing SKU Velocity Analysis Storage Utilization Shrinkage Analysis Store Layout Analysis Shelf Space Optimization
QUESTIONS ADDRESSED How can I compare the performance of multiple Dealers/Stores? How to maximize my Portfolio yield? What is my best Product Mix Vs Demand? How to balance the work load ? What shipment size would be best? How shall I schedule my shipment ? How to optimize my SKU portfolio? How do I best utilize my ware house? How to reduce my shrinkage? Where should I place the merchandize in the store? How to optimize the shelf space?
SOLUTION APPROACH
Mobile Phone Model level forecasting was used for predicting the demand.
Previous Sales
Location Classification
Model Classification
Seasonality
Sales Volume
economic grade of the area, the population and product classifiers such as the nascence of technology used and richness of features were used for the model.
10
20
30
40 Week
50
60
70
The study used Markov Transition matrix to define the degree of shift of sales from existing models to new models.
The models were classified based on the features and technology where the value attached to a technology would erode with time thus shifting a new product to an established one.
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52
Week #
TEST RESULT
The study clearly showed that the tendency to adopt new products is higher in case of regions 2 and 3 which were larger urban clusters
The switching in these places clearly showed the strong adoption of new premium model from existing premium models over a period of 24 weeks on an average
Model 1
Model 2
New Model
Dealer profile variables New product feature scores Historical feature acceptances
Logistic Regression
Dealer Profile variables Historical New product acceptances New product feature scores
The output is a Dealer score with a probability of acceptance for a particular new product introduction Dealer New product acceptance Score
TEST RESULT
Dealers 4 and 8 located in Region 2 and 3 respectively showed high potential of new product sales. Based on the forecast over 42% of new product sales would be accounted for by these two dealers.
Figure 3 : Dealer acceptance modeling
Customer Satisfaction was used as the indicator of store performance Customer surveys were conducted every month and data was collected regularly Based on the customer response a C-SAT score (% of customers with favorable opinion) was assigned for each department of each store The drivers for the customer satisfaction in each department were identified using Logistic Regression Focused and Targeted campaigns were conducted based on model inputs
BUSINESS IMPACT:
The dash board enabled the client monitor change in C-SAT from month to month across stores and departments The C-SAT score was used as one of the inputs to their performance management system
Infrastructure
In-Store Facilities
HR
After Sales
Store1
Satisfaction Score >= 90%
Store2
Store3
Store4
Store5
Store6
Sample data
Infrastructure
In-Store Facilities
HR
After Sales
Store1
Satisfaction Score >= 90%
Store2
Store3
Store4
Store5
Store6
Sample data
SOLUTION APPROACH
A tool was developed in MS SQL Server 2005, ASP.NET and.NET 2.0
SOLUTION BENEFITS
Accurate reports were available almost real time. Users were able to spend more time in interpreting data for taking effective decisions rather than collating data and making sure that the reports were correct
SOLUTION APPROACH
The project was divided in to 2 steps Data Management and Loyalty card Analysis
Survey data
STUDY DETAIL:
Data Integration and Reconciliation : Customer data, POS data, Loyalty card data and Transaction data were integrated and reconciled using customer number, POS number, Loyalty card number and by comparing with similar data from different months. Exception and discrepancies were identified and rules were created to resolve them. Data Cleaning : Variables are analyzed Univariate analysis, and Frequency and Crosstab analyses. variable capping and missing value treatment were carried out to deal with outliers and missing values respectively Business Impact : The master table not only provided integrated view of the portfolio but also enabled further analysis.
Segmentation Key metrics generation Master Table Segment growth potential Customer spending analysis
Penetration, Activation and Spending
Segment based promotion plan Peer Comparison Targeting segments based on growth potential Customer based reward plans
ROI analysis
Buyer behavior
STUDY DETAIL:
Extensive analyses including segmentation, key metrics generation, customer spending analysis, region wise performance analysis were carried out using the data from the master table and inferences and recommendations were provided Business Impact : The analysis provided key insights about the card population including right segmentation, comparison with peers and ROI analysis. Based on our recommendations the client initiated model based spend enhancement campaigns targeting specific segments
Marketable Base # Contactable Reconciled population Final Available Population
156,745 126,783 61% 49% 156,745 141,678 61% 55%
BEFORE #
256,781
POST CLEANING % #
256,781
%
100%
100%
105,342
41%
130,345
51%
96,734
38%
115,673
45%
KPI Analysis
Flexible Design
Please find the link to the latest sales analytics demo with prediction module. http://202.88.238.226/rapidanalyse/ Home.aspx Login: admin Password: admin@123 Pereformance management Demo http://www.satvikinc.co.in/PPMDemo Login: admin Password: admin@123
SOLUTION FEATURES
Analytics Reporting Dashboards
RISK ANALYTICS
RISK ANALYTICS
Risk Analytics is a set of analytical solutions which helps in prediction, early identification, and reduction of risk, and minimization of losses in various business activities SOLUTIONS Risk scoring Default Prediction Forecasting Risk based portfolio pricing LGD, PD Modeling Early Indicators of fraud Root Cause Analysis, Claims analysis Loss Analysis Self cure analysis Collection ROI Analysis Work-out analysis
QUESTIONS ADDRESSED What is the risk profile of my customers? Which customer is likely to default in future? What is the expected default in future? What is the fair value of my portfolio? Do I have adequate capital to cover the exposure? How to identify fraud early? How to reduce the instances of fraud? What is my total loss due to fraud? Which customers are likely to pay without contact? Which portfolio should be placed under recovery? Which is the best recovery method for a given customer?
More Accurately predict Accounts defaulting in Improve productivity by automatically approving lowest risk applicants and rejecting highest risk applicants
SOLUTION: A customized credit scorecard which predicts the probability that an applicant will become severely delinquent with in the next 12 months in their new applicant decision-making process DEFINITIONS: Goods : Less than 90 DPD within 1st year Bads : Greater than or equals 90 DPD within 1st year
METHOD
Logistic Regression Model used to predict default (good / bad). Additional information from Credit Bureau and internal data used. Extensive back testing and out of time testing . Best practices in terms of variables selected and best model selection method used.
DEFAULT CURING
UTILIZATION
FEE INCOME
The Portfolio was analyzed as above. Segments Customers with 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more Products All the above curves were used as inputs to the Credit Scoring Model
This model was built on relatively newer data Additional Bureau & behavior information available
RESULTS
Projected increase in approval volume ~ 27,500 application per year translating to $ 625K incremental sales
Median ROI for the projects that incorporated predictive technologies was 145%, compared with a median ROI of 89% for those projects that employed only traditional analytics.
Source : Analytics: The New Path to Value, a joint MIT Sloan Management review and IBM institute of business value study. Copyright Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010
5.4x
Top Performers are more likely to use an analytic approach over intuition*
Source: Analytics: The New Path to Value, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value study. Copyright Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2010.