MARKET RESEARCH

Jan 13th Jan 17th

SPOTLIGHT
U.K. Retail Sales Growth Rate (MoM)

Portugal issues 1-year debt at 0.869%

PSI-20 kept its positive trend, after Goldman Sachs revised upwards its valuations of BCP, BES and BPI. On the economic data front, the Portuguese inflation rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.2% in December, while analysts forecasted a decrease of 0.07 percentage points. Moreover, the countrys industrial production grew 1.5% in November. Finally, the Portuguese treasury issued last Wednesday 1010 million in debt securities with a maturity of 12 months, at an average yield of 0.869%, the lowest rate since 2009.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Jan 13
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
7,142.73 3,111.94 6,757.15 9,510.17 4,263.27 22,888.76

U.K. retail sales beat expectations

Jan 17
7,114.28 3,154.10 6,829.30 9,742.96 4,327.50 15,734.46 23,133.35

Jan 14
7,065.15 3,119.53 6,766.86 9,540.51 4,274.20 15,422.40 22,791.28

Jan 15
7,125.02 3,168.76 6,819.86 9,733.81 4,332.07 15,808.73 22,902.00

Jan 16
7,094.31 3,150.20 6,815.42 9,717.71 4,319.27 15,747.20 22,986.41

Wkly Chg
0.29% 1.61% 1.33% 2.85% 1.81% -1.12% 1.26%

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CURRENCIES
Jan 13
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1.367 1.229 0.834 140.940 8.260 93.300

Jan 14
1.367 1.235 0.832 142.410 8.257 93.360

Jan 15
1.360 1.237 0.831 142.250 8.227 93.140

Jan 16
1.362 1.232 0.833 142.010 8.247 91.990

Jan 17
1.354 1.233 0.825 141.250 8.191 91.620

Wkly Chg
-0.94% -0.08% -0.58% -0.81% -0.95% -2.22%

European equities continue its trend, with the main markets closing again with positive weekly returns. In the Euro Zone, industrial production increased by a seasonally adjusted 1.8% in November, beating expectations for a 1.4% gain, while the consumer price inflation rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% last month. In U.K, the latter accelerated at a seasonally adjusted 2% last month, while analysts expected it to hold steady at 2.1%. Additionally, U.K. retail sales increased by 2.6% (MoM) in December, beating analysts expectations of a 0.4% increase. Lastly, Deutsche Bank suspended several currency traders in New York in an internal probe that forms part of an international investigation into alleged manipulation of the global currency markets.

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Asian markets close mixed

Jan 14 0.208% 0.282% 0.390% 0.557% 0.147% Jan 15 0.216% 0.290% 0.397% 0.565% 0.210% Jan 16 0.234% 0.300% 0.405% 0.572% 0.300% Jan 17 0.243% 0.302% 0.408% 0.571% 0.343%

v
Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M Eonia

REFERENCE RATES
0.207%

Jan 13 0.282% 0.389% 0.557% 0.153%

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BOND YIELDS
Jan 13 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y 0.934%
4.004% 5.330% 3.833% 2.344% 3.899% 1.817% 2.834%

Jan 14 0.838%
3.974% 5.310% 3.824% 2.321% 3.885% 1.816% 2.832%

Jan 15
0.918% 3.836% 5.163% 3.766% 2.492% 3.869% 1.827% 2.865%

Jan 16 0.788%
3.822% 5.154% 3.736% 2.459% 3.846% 1.777% 2.813%

Jan 17 0.896%
3.728% 5.070% 3.705% 2.416% 3.816% 1.755% 2.834%

FEP Finance Club; Investing.com

Asian equities were mixed this week with the Nikkei 225 dropping, while Hang Seng rose. In the Chinese front, new yuan loans fell short of market expectations. Moreover, foreign direct investment slightly decreased 5.3% in December, after rising 5.5% in November. In Japan, economy watchers current index rose more than expected in December to 55.7, from 53.5 in the preceding month. Also, machinery orders rose just 16.6% in November, after rising 25.9% in the preceding month. On the other hand, consumer confidence decreased in December to 41.3, roughly below market expectations of an increase to 43.4. New home loans granted in Australia rose 1.1% in December, beating expectations. Furthermore, the countrys unemployment rate was 5.8% in December, after the economy lost 22,600 jobs versus expectations for an increase of 10,000, following the addition of 21,000 jobs in November.

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SPOTLIGHT
U.S. Retail Sales Growth Rate (MoM)

U.S. retail sales keep their positive trend

The S&P 500 ended the week yielding losses, after registering some volatility. U.S. retail sales edged up in December, with the core spending gauge posting a big jump, a sign the economy gathered steam at the end of last year and was poised for stronger growth in 2014. Moreover, U.S. overall import prices were basically flat after months of declines, a sign of slow overseas growth restraining inflation at home. Besides, producer price inflation in the U.S. rose in line with expectations in December, while core prices inched up modestly, by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, matching forecasts, after falling 0.1% in November. On the labor market, fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market continues to strengthen. Jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 326,000 in the previous week, the least since the end of November, from a revised 328,000 in the prior period. Lastly, U.S. building permits for November were revised to 1.017 million, down 2.1% from October. Moreover, US Housing Starts decreased to 0.999M in December, from 1.107M in November.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Jan 13
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1,819.20 16,257.94 3,512.80 3,498.53

Jan 14
1,838.88 16,373.86 3,580.65 3,526.90

Jan 15
1,848.38 16,481.94 3,609.84 3,527.55

Jan 16
1,845.89 16,417.01 3,611.29 3,490.88

Jan 17
1,838.70 16,458.56 3,591.25 3,481.78

Wkly Chg
-0.20% 0.13% 0.73% -1.55%

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CURRENCIES
Jan 13
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
103.120 6.043 0.905 1.639 0.899 1.088

Jan 14
104.190 6.041 0.896 1.643 0.903 1.095

Jan 15
104.600 6.046 0.890 1.636 0.909 1.095

Jan 16
104.300 6.056 0.882 1.635 0.905 1.093

Jan 17
104.330 6.102 0.878 1.642 0.910 1.096

Wkly Chg
0.15% 0.05% -2.40% -0.37% 0.86% 0.64%

Argentina and Brazil show high inflation

Argentina's consumer prices rose 10.9% in December (YoY), according to official data, while many privatesector inflation estimates point towards to more than twice that figure. Argentina's economic activity grew 2.2% in November compared with the same month last year. Brazil raised its base lending rate to 10.50%, signaling it is maintaining a firm stance against rising prices in the wake of recent higher-than-expected inflation data. Besides, Brazils November retail sales rose 0.7% from the previous month level. Lastly, the Mexican unemployment rate was 4.76% in December, ticking up from November.

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COMMODITIES
1.63% 5.40% -1.13% -1.68%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

0.46% 0.72% -0.12% -2.63%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

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Oil rises amid strong economic growth

Oil rose to a two-week high on signs that economic growth is accelerating in the U.S., the worlds biggest oil-consuming nation. Gold and silver futures ended the week higher, as traders continued to speculate over for how quickly the Federal Reserve will roll back its stimulus program. Sugar prices fell to the lowest level since June 2010, after India approved a plan to subsidize shipments of the sweetener.

US TREASUR Y YIELDS
Jan 13 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0.038% 0.112% 2.829% 3.775%

Jan 14
0.038% 0.112% 2.873% 3.804%

Jan 15
0.038% 0.117% 2.893% 3.824%

Jan 16
0.038% 0.107% 2.841% 3.773%

Jan 17
0.035% 0.107% 2.821% 3.751%

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Carlos Pereira

Catarina Borges

David Novo

Jorge Rodrigues

Pratik Ashok

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