International Workshop on Volcanic Ash Final Report

6th INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON VOLCANIC ASH
Final Report
Citeko, Bogor, Indonesia, 11-15 March 2013 Convened by the World Meteorological Organization In collaboration with the International Civil Aviation Organization Hosted by the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology and Climatology, BMKG
WMOScienceWorkshopReport
Table of Contents Thanks to the Host Organisation...............................................................i 1. General Summary..............................................................................1 2. Summary of Problem Statements and Recommendations by break-out groups...........................................................................1 3. Best Practice Discussions..................................................................5 4. Regional Outlook Fora: Target for 2018.............................................6 5. Conclusions .....................................................................................12 Appendices
Appendix 1: Workshop Programme.........................................................................14 Appendix 2: Available Participants Biographies......................................................18 Appendix 3: List of participants................................................................................30 Appendix 4: Short Abstracts of presentations given ................................................35 Appendix 5: Terms of Reference of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Group ..................44 Thanks to the Host Organization, Organizers, and Sponsors
The participants in the 6th WMO International Workshop on Volcanic Ash would like to acknowledge the generous hospitality of Dr Sri Woro Harijono, Director General of BKMG and Permanent Representative of Indonesia with WMO for offering the excellent facilities at the BKMG Training Centre in Citeko, Bogor, Indonesia. The beautiful setting of this Centre on the flank of a volcano in a lush natural setting, the perfectly equipped meeting rooms and hospitality facilities, the friendliness of the staff and the very economical arrangements for participants, all permitted a successful meeting in a very close team spirit and cohesion of all participants. Warm thanks should also be extended to the scientific co-chairs of the meeting, Dr Andrew Tupper (BoM, Australia) and Dr Larry G. Mastin (USGS, USA), for their great efforts in preparing the agenda, working with the host organization in preparing the practical arrangements, and for guiding the meeting to a successful conclusion. The organizers also warmly acknowledge the hospitality of Dr Surono, Director of CVGHM, Indonesias Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, in particular for the field trip to the site of relatively young pyroclastic flow and lahar field, and to the Volcano Observatory on Gede Volcano. The field trip was kindly assisted by CVGHM staff and by Prof. Chris Newhall (Earth Observatory of Singapore), who shared his vast experience in geology and volcanology with the participants, and gave them a fascinating insight in the rich volcanological past and present of the host country, which is home to no less than 127 active and potentially active volcanoes. The coordinating and supporting role of the WMO, and the continued interest and support from ICAO for the activities of this scientific community are also warmly acknowledged. IATA also provided significant sponsorship to ensure that all VAAC managers had the opportunity to attend rd the workshop, which also incorporated the 3 VAAC Best Practices Seminar (see later text).
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1. GENERAL SUMMARY
The 6th International Workshop on Volcanic Ash was held at the BKMG Training Centre in Citeko, Bogor, Indonesia, from 11 to 15 March 2013. The meeting reviewed progress and challenges following the unprecedented disruption to aviation by the recent eruptions of Eyjafjallajkull and Grmsvtn (Iceland), Cordon-Caulle (Chile) and Merapi (Indonesia), and considered the many workshops, meetings and negotiations, including the creation of the ICAO International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) and the on-going work of the ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG), the strong interactions with regulators, airlines, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) and other aviation stakeholders in the aftermath of these events. Around 40 scientists, technologists and operations experts, whose contact details are given in Appendix 1 to this report, participated in the workshop. For efficiency of process and better connections between the research and operational community, the 3rd in a series of VAAC Best Practice seminars (ICAO/IAVWOPSG-led activity) was held in parallel with the workshop, with the generous assistance of IATA. Representatives of the VAACs used the opportunity of the presence of the scientists to discuss the expected impact of the scientific progress on the ongoing implementation progress of the VAAC best practices identified by the series of Best Practice Workshops held over the last 2 years. The workshop began with an opening ceremony at which Dr Sri Woro Harijono outlined Indonesias progress and commitment towards volcanic ash hazard warnings for aviation, including improved VAAC services in the region, and Dr Surono discussed Indonesias 127 active volcanoes (more than any other country), and the improving monitoring arrangements being put in place. Dr Sri Woro Harijono declared Indonesias interest in becoming a new VAAC for the maritime continent based on the strong progress made in the country and the large number of volcanoes. The workshop warmly noted Indonesias engagement in this area, and some very useful side discussions were held, to discuss avenues of progress in improving volcanic ash warnings in the region. In relation to any potential new VAAC designation, the Indonesian delegation was informed by the ICAO officer, Mr Raul Romero, of the due process to be followed, e.g. submitting a proposal to the the Asia-Pacific Air Navigation Planning and Implementation Regional Group (APANPIRG) of ICAO, which would consult with the IAVWOPSG. As the requirements for any new installations and services needs to be supported by users, a consultation process with airline representatives, WMO and other stakeholders would be used to determine the user requirements and service capability requirements in terms of documented infrastructure, staff and resources. In the general sessions, the workshop was presented with lectures outlining progress in the areas of observations (ground based, in-situ, remote sensing), modeling and best practices for VAACs. Break-out groups reviewed and discussed the presentations, formulating agreed problem statements and recommended actions for all stakeholders, as given in chapter 2 of this report. 2. SUMMARY OF PROBLEM STATEMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS BY BREAK-OUT GROUPS
Following the first series of lectures and presentations, 3 break-out groups were formed on Tuesday 11 March to consider the following subjects:
Issues of local data, and the interface between State volcano observatories, meteorological watch offices (MWOs), and volcanic ash advisory centres (VAACs). Modeling Issues Remote Sensing questions
The three groups reported back on Wednesday with the conclusions and recommendations listed below: 2.1 Local Data, Interface between State volcano observatories, MWO and VAAC
This group focused on the two crucial questions of the provision of radar data to VAACs, including the questions of responsibilities, procedures and protocols needed, and required competence of personnel. There was general agreement that existing fixed and mobile weather radars (both in C-Band and X-Band) were excellent tools to determine the timing and strength of the eruption through the determination of eruption height. Whereas in some States, advanced volcano observatories were operating dedicated radars for this purpose, it was found that in a majority of other States with active volcanoes, existing weather radars could be suitable for the observation of plume heights. In these cases, however, the radar operators and aeronautical forecasters would require adequate training in the interpretation of weather radar images to identify plumes, in particular where convective clouds are also present. The group agreed on the following: RECOMMENDATION 1: That WMO, with the support of State volcano observatories and Meteorological Watch Offices (MWOs) with relevant experience in radar observations, consider developing required competencies, organizing training events and the creation of on-line training material for staff of MWOs in States where suitable weather radars were placed in the vicinity of volcanoes to supplement the manual observations. The group further recommended that WMO review and further develop existing guidance on the format, content, transmission and interpretation of Radar-based reports on volcanic plumes, and that ICAO, WMO and WOVO/IUGG coordinate and promote the publication and availability of such guidance in all concerned States/Members to ensure widespread compliance with and application of the procedures. The group further considered the widespread problems of adequate funding enabling a sustainable operation of the State volcano observatories. The group felt very strongly that despite recent advances in automated detection of eruptions by remote sensing, which is still uncertain in overcast conditions and for some tropical eruption scenarios, only properly monitored volcanoes could be considered not to pose a significant safety hazard to aviation, as the first hours following an eruption with high ash loading and uncertain position of the ash cloud pose the greatest risk to overflying aircraft. The group recognized that in densely populated areas, the first priority of the State volcano observatories would always be the safety of the population living within the designated hazard zones, and that the added responsibility to provide information to aviation needs to
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be regulated by clearly defined requirements and funded through proper cost recovery mechanisms. In these cases, it was considered that the additional cost of monitoring the ash plume, preparing VONA for aviation and the dissemination of these State volcano observatories messages to area control centres/flight information centres, meteorological watch offices and volcanic ash advisory centres would have to be fully cost recoverable. In the case of volcanoes placed along air route, but in uninhabited areas, the full cost of monitoring would have to fall to aviation as sole beneficiary of the service. The group therefore formulated the following:
RECOMMENDATION 2:
That ICAO, in close coordination with WMO and WOVO/IUGG review and update existing guidance material for the recovery of costs for volcano monitoring, and ensure by a coordinated outreach action that this guidance is brought to the attention of State volcano observatories, their parent governmental organizations and MWOs, and that WOVO be encouraged to cooperate with ICAO and WMO in the application of the cost recovery guidance for its membership assuring that a fair and equitable resourcing for crucial safety information providers is assured. 2.2 Modeling aspects
The group agreed on the following statements and proposed the priorities of R&D for the scientific community (represented by the VASAG, whose Terms of Reference are given as Appendix 4) listed below. The group was pleased to note that the recommendations arising from the break-out group's discussions were entirely consistent with the outcomes from the 'VAAC Ins and Outs Dispersion Modeling Workshop' held in Washington DC in November 2012 held under the auspices of WMO-IUGG VASAG. These outcomes, reinforced by the break-out group's discussions, were to be further discussed at the IAVWOPSG/7 meeting in Bangkok in the week beginning 18th March 2013: Problem statements: In humid tropical environments, plume height may be very insensitive to eruption rate due to convective instability, therefore we need to investigate model limitations under unstable atmospheric conditions; For model initiation, accurate data on plume height and its variation with time during an eruption are essential. As already stated by Group 1, both stationary and mobile radars are considered a preferred source of such data; Existing conceptual models of the relation between plume height and mass eruption rate are based on a limited number of well-observed eruptions, and it is felt that it will be highly beneficial to increase that data base by field campaigns to observe more volcanic plumes; The group felt a need to more fully characterize the vertical distribution of mass in the plume or ash cloud, according to grain size, especially the vertical distribution of fine ash particles; Experiments are needed to validate and improve the formulation of 1-D plume models, perform inter-comparisons of 1-D models, and validate them with 3-D models and experiments.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
The Group recommended developing guidelines on when the use of empirical relations and 1-D models is appropriate, and recommended further studies to better understand the development of the umbrella cloud or buoyancy-driven features in the downwind plume. Concerning the analysis of initial conditions, the group recommended the integration (assimilation) of satellite and other observational data into dispersion models. The Group recommended further research to address the question of when and how fine ash can be removed from the atmosphere to be able to consistently determine when an ash cloud is no longer a risk, and to develop an operational parameterization of the aggregation process. The Group strongly felt the need to develop an efficient, objective and computationally sustainable method of determining uncertainty in ashcloud model forecasts. 2.3 Remote Sensing Issues
The group considered the following list of issues and agreed on the priorities listed below: While automatic ash detection has advanced significantly and is on the verge of implementation for operational use (e.g. at VAACs), there are still some outstanding issues, e.g. spectroscopy, multi-layer clouds, refractive indices of ash in air, mixed clouds, ice-covered ash that will continue to require expert input and assessment; The group recommended that VAACs should have access to multiple ash products (Pavolonis, Prata, etc.) to increase confidence, and give regular feedback to the data providers for inter-comparison and validation; Concerning the critical early stages of an event, the group recommended that VAACs should consider MODVOLC and EVOSS satellite-based thermal anomalies for detection of the onset of a volcanic eruption; The group agreed that the development of methods to include observations into transport and dispersion models through data assimilation will be the strategic objective of research and development in VAACs for the coming decade; The group further recommended that satellite retrievals need to be validated against airborne and ground-based measurements (e.g. lidar and in-situ) as part of an integrated observing system; The group encouraged the VAACs to consider SO2 retrievals in their operational processes. Training Issues
2.4
In a separate discussion, the question of required competencies and training to support their achievement was discussed, and the following principles were adopted in line with the
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general WMO policies on training and competencies as expressed in the review of the WMO Technical Regulations No. 49 Vol.1: Training, Competences and Quality Management The workshop was informed that the overarching Standards, requirements and guidance material relating to the implementation of quality management systems and aeronautical meteorological personnel competency Standards can be found at http://wmo.caem.int/moodle under the Reference and Regulatory Material tab (access achieved by logging-in as guest user). The workshop welcomed the development of the UCAR MetEd COMET computer aided learning training modules (Access to these resources is free although it is first necessary to register as a MetEd user). The workshop strongly supported the ongoing development of these and other volcanic ash related training resources as a priority activity. Introduction to Volcanic Ash at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=882; Volcanic Ash Impacts at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=880; Volcanic Ash Observation Tools and Dispersion Models at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=879. VAAC Anchorage also recommended the 2-part Satellite Hydrology and Meteorological Volcanoes and Volcanic Ash training resources available at http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_VolcanicAshPart1.asp and http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/training/shymet/forecaster_VolcanicAshPart2.asp. 3. BEST PRACTICE DISCUSSIONS
The workshop noted that, stemming from the ICAO IAVWOPSG/6 meeting in September 2011, a series of best practice seminars for the operators of the 9 VAACs had been held in 2011 and 2012 and facilitated by Australia and IATA, in collaboration with WMO, reviewing the progress and gaps in harmonization and application of unified scientific principles between the different VAAC provider organizations. In consideration of the need to connect this process with the examination of progress in cutting-edge science, a decision had been made to run a 3rd and last such seminar in the process in parallel with the WMO workshop, to allow efficiency and a drawing together of some of the multiple threads of progress in volcanic ash and aviation over recent years. The final results of the process were then reported to the IAVWOPSG/7 meeting the following week (refer to the ICAO IAVWOPSG/7 report). The presence of seven of the nine VAAC managers at the WMO Workshop was thus greatly appreciated by the other participants of the Workshop. In addition, a side-meeting of VAAC managers under the Best Practice process took place on Wednesday evening and.reported a number of the points discussed to the Workshop participants, as summarised below. The side meeting, chaired by Ian Lisk in his role as WMO CAeM vice-president, was attended by management representatives from Toulouse, Tokyo, Washington, Anchorage, Darwin, Wellington and London VAAC. The meeting gratefully acknowledged the generous support by IATA for the previous seminars and focused on progress with and priorities for best practice implementation as well as looking at the related issues expected to come up during the ICAO IAVWOPSG/7 meeting in Bangkok in the week beginning 18th March 2013.
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The group noted that a number of science-related operational issues would be of interest to some of the broader community present at the WMO Workshop, and noted: (a) That the growing maturity of the definitions and interpretations of the visible and discernable ash discussion (to be discussed further the following week) was a very helpful and welcome development for practical VAAC operations; That it remained a high priority to explore ways to portray confidence in volcanic ash information provided by the VAACs, and that it would also be potentially very useful to explore the production and dissemination during a volcanic event by the VAACs of a 3-hourly (or thereabouts) annotated T+0 Volcanic Ash Analysis chart based on an assessment of available volcanic ash observational data. These issues could be explored together; That it could be very scientifically and operationally useful to create a VAAC common webpage based on the WMO Regional Specialized MET Centre mirrored website model to enable the exchange of model and, where possible, observational data between the VAACs. A suggestion from one VAAC was also to exchange VAAC Operational Manuals, post-event case studies and training resources to encourage peer review and facilitate greater harmonization was also supported. Whilst appreciating the need of users for volcanic ash forecasts that went beyond the current T+18 requirement, the meeting noted that in order to satisfy such requirements and indeed any other additional requirements, additional resource and therefore funding would be necessary whilst the underpinning scientific integrity of the products being supplied would also have to be maintained. REGIONAL OUTLOOK FORA: TARGET FOR 2018
(b)
(c)
(d)
4.
To better capture regional priorities, three groups were formed to represent the large areas of Asia and Oceania, Europe and Africa, and the Americas. They considered separately their current status, plans and milestones to be achieved over a 5 year period, i.e. until 2018. They were asked to provide input on a given template, under guidance from the meeting cochairs, as below: Exercise 1 Briefly describe a vision of where your region could be in 5 years, in terms of: Exercise 2 Identify the top priority actions for each region to get there. Consider: 1. Improving existing capabilities and practices; 2. Research operations priorities; 3. Roles and responsibilities; Volcanic monitoring VAAC operations (including remote sensing, dispersion modelling, training) Meteorological Watch Office operations (including local observations of volcanic cloud, SIGMET issuance) Area Control Centre operations Aviation user satisfaction
4. Risks to success and mitigation actions The Asia Oceania Group provided the following input: Region 1 Asia and Oceania Volcanic monitoring 5 year vision Volcano observatories have adopted uniform products (VONA), including aviation color codes Monitoring capability is successfully developed in those countries and territories (in the Asia Pacific region) where there is currently little or none Enhance existing capability VAAC operations (including remote sensing, dispersion modeling, training) Automated assimilation of satellite observations into dispersion models Automated ash detection alerting to the VAAC, to an operationally useful level Convincing business cases are made to endusers (public and private) to fund research and the development required to bring research results into operation. Use VASAG to help prioritize sponsoring Develop partnerships between researchers and operators, such that the research results are applicable Observatory MWO link incorporated into next SIGMET test Conduct regular (say, once a year) end-to-end volcanic ash activity exercises conducted with the region reported to various ICAO fora Region-wide verification/validation and debriefing of significant events implemented Priority actions (be specific) Volcano observatories best practice guidelines have been developed and implemented In the above process, aviation interests are represented at the WOVO best practices workshop
Volcanic Activity Information Dissemination System (particular to this region) being used effectively
Information sharing, on an operational basis, of ash detection information and
dispersion model forecasts Support website mirroring
Resolving the current multiplicity of information formats: volcanic ash advisory, NOTAM / ASHTAM, SIGMET Common Alerting Protocol used for all volcanic ash advice products Area Control Centre operations Clear and optimized product dissemination pathways Optimized communication channels Meteorological Watch Office operations (MWO) (including local observations of volcanic cloud, SIGMET issuance) Defined responsibility of MWO to provide, to IAVW, weather radar based observations for volcanic ash detection
Support relevant IAVWOPSG discussions
IAVWOPSG discussions
IAVWOPSG discussions Actively support the involvement of ATC representation on IAVW WMO develops training material IAVWOPSG to recommend appropriate communication pathway Ensure all stakeholders are engaged in the regional contingency plan
Aviation user satisfaction
No unnecessary barriers to improved service provision, e.g., IAVW engagement with air traffic management Transparency of operating procedures across all stakeholders Mature IAVW Concept of Operations
The European- African Group delivered the following results: Region 1 Africa and Europe Volcanic monitoring Priority actions (be specific) Require that State volcano observatories in Africa are reliably staffed 24/7. Ensure that infrastructure /training is in place to achieve this. This requires continuous funding.
5 year vision Africa: Currently some major issues surrounding the ability to observe, and communicate, eruption information. Need to ensure that State volcano observatories are able to be relied upon to provide
information. Explore the feasibility of more reliance on the African MWOs as an extra pair of eyes for observing (via satellite data) eruptions and communicating this to the VAACs. Europe: Integrated LIDAR network across Europe expected within 5 years. More use of webcams cheap and robust. Where feasible a weather radar sited near to each (10-15) African volcano? Requires serious funding. This process has begun need to ensure that politically it is continued. Important to maintain momentum even without an eruption. Use of low-value drones for low-eruption height sampling? Better use of seismographic info there is data but is not currently made available.
An understanding that in 5 years time most observations will be mostly quantitative, rather than qualitative. London VAAC very well served observationally for Iceland by Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) but possible weakness for Jan Mayen? VAAC operations (including remote sensing, dispersion modelling, training) Be able to use satellite data to understand whether the source term used is correct.
Inversion schemes are being developed some mixed results using Eyja data but generally positive. This work needs to be continued and taken forward. Needs continuing likely that in 5 years time this will have been trialed and possibly ready for operational use? Use of infrasound data to accurately determine source term parameters. Considered likely within 5 years. An easy win! Training material can already be easily passed around and this should be built upon
Assimilation of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and VA data
Good knowledge of source term characteristics. Consistent training supplied to all VAACs
by the VAACs. Forecaster exchange between VAACs understanding how each works. Meteorological Watch Office operations (including local observations of volcanic cloud, SIGMET issuance) Africa: Greater understanding /appreciation of impact of VA and ability to observe it (via satellite, etc.) Europe: Regular exercises already undertaken (bilateral and pan-European). Training supplied (via WMO, EUMETNET, etc.) needs to continue. A need to extend these VA exercises to include African and Middle eastern countries planned by Toulouse. WMO competency assessments for all aviation (therefore VAAC) forecasters required by Nov 2013 Science workshops (like this) a good vehicle to partially achieve this. Use IAVWOPSG as a vehicle to understand what requirements are. In 5 years IAVWOPSG will be a multi-disciplinary group including all users (Pilots, Airlines, CAAs, ATC, ATM, MWOs).
VAAC forecasters able to clearly demonstrate competency.
Better technology transfer
All users well defined and able to describe exact requirements
The results for the Americas were consistent with the other groups, but focused on technological outlooks: Region 3 The Americas Region 3 The Americas Volcanic monitoring Priority actions (be specific) Priority actions (be specific)
5 year vision 5 year vision
Buenos Aires: In Chile, the funded program to improve volcano monitoring throughout the country will substantially improve
Support the continuation of the Aleutian seismic network Continue to support the
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aviation support. Washington, Anchorage: North America aspires that the North Pacific monitoring networks not be discontinued due to lack of funding. strong progress that has been made in South America (Chile, Colombia, Ecuador), and press for infrastructure support for Central America. For State volcano observatories, clarify the responsibilities regarding the new VONA system. VAAC operations (including remote sensing, dispersion modelling, training) Buenos Aires: Continuing the trajectory of improvements that has been accomplished in the past five years. Ten new meteorological Doppler radars will be constructed within Argentina. For Argentina, continuing a good working relationship with the National Weather Service of Argentina, the University of Buenos Aires, the University of Barcelona (FALL3D), and with NOAA (HYSPLIT) is a high priority. Development of response plans needs to be tied to the IAVW protocol. Continue support of GOES-R proving ground Encourage continued sharing of automated volcanic ash alert system to other VAACs Institutional requirements should be established to ensure that research products be actively converted to ops. For the U.S., reinvigorating the NOAA/USGS Volcanic Ash Working Group would ensure better communication with between State volcano observatories and VAACS Support the development
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Anchorage: In the next five years there will be a new operational system (AWIPS2), and a digital aviation database will be set up. All volcanic ash will be integrated into that, and all dispersion models will be integrated. In Alaska, Radar is limited (7 Doppler radars). Addition of GOES-R will improve coverage. Washington: No significant changes known
of probabilistic model forecasts. Area Control Centre operations There need to be improvements in the dissemination of AIREPs to the VAACs. Meteorological Warning Study Group (METWSG) is considering the problem that SIGMETs are not being issued consistently around the world. Consider giving more responsibility to Central American countries for dealing with ash & aviation. Could the regional ICAO office intervene with the MWOs in improving communication and practices? Continue support for USGS volcano observatories to support aviation users. Continue to facilitate communication outlets such as NWSChat. Test and characterize the skill of long-term (>24 hour) forecasts.
Meteorological Watch Office operations (including local observations of volcanic cloud, SIGMET issuance)
Airlines in North America are not clamouring for concentration charts. Airlines are satisfied with access to volcano observatory staff In Argentina, airlines are more interested in concentration charts due to insurance issues. Aviation wants to see forecasts farther out than 18 hours. Airlines frequently ask for a three-day run. In coming years, forecasts will have to be issued farther out. In coming years the demand for volcanic ash graphics will increase.
5. CONCLUSIONS The meeting agreed that very considerable progress had been made in the 3 years since the last workshop, thanks to the hard work from all involved. It remains very important to maintain momentum, through WMO and ICAO processes and through the wider scientific community. All 3 of the regionally focused groups converged in their concern to at least maintain, and in the less developed regions increase the monitoring of volcanoes together with an improved information exchange mechanism between the Volcano Observatories, MWO-s and VAAC. The field trip to a Lahar and pyroclastic flow area on the slopes of Gede Volcano, field tutorial on observational techniques and deductive hazard assessment, and the visit to the
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Gede Volcano Observatory, had reinforced to the Workshop the importance of the International Airways Volcano Watch being part of a highly functional, end-to-end warning system incorporating meteorological, volcanological, and aviation aspects, and delivering excellent warning services to the affected public. There was unanimous support for collaborative decision making based on information sharing, and some tools to facilitate that were presented or considered. Information services for Volcanic Ash were understood to be a multi-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder effort with mutual information requirements to establish a common situational awareness. Weather radar networks were seen as an excellent source of quantitative information on eruption height and strength, and in some areas positive developments of enhanced networks are already seen, in Africa further efforts and support will be needed. In remote sensing in particular, the groups saw value in the at least partial automation of routine detection processes to accelerate and facilitate the work of the experts, As a medium-term goal, all agreed on the need for a real-time analysis of ash data, which in combination with inverse modeling would remove a considerable degree of uncertainty from the definition of the source terms. The need for ongoing training in existing and emerging techniques for personnel together with a recognized method for assessing their competency was seen and supported by all. The question of forecast uncertainty was addressed, and agreement was found that a quantitative, objective, but computationally efficient and realistic method for estimating uncertainty would be required. There was concern about long-standing deficiencies seen in some regions; with some MWOs unable to meet or unaware of requirements, some volcano observatories chronically unfunded or under-funded; and a lack of communication between stakeholders. No quick solution can be offered, but a long-term program of funding support through cost recovery, competence training and outreach was hoped to be able to reduce these deficiencies over time.
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Appendix 1
Incorporating the 3rd IAVW Best Practice Seminar (ICAO/WMO/IATA)
TH 6 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON VOLCANIC ASH 10 - 15 March 2013

BMKG Training Centre Facilities, Citeko, Bogor Indonesia
PROGRAMME
Day Sunday 10th (Jakarta) Key items Aiport pickup - delegates expected to arrive in Soekarno-Hatta International Airport Cengkareng and Local Organizing Committee will pick up at the airport. Hotel pickup - Delegates may, if they prefer, arrive Saturday 9th, and arrange accommodation at a Jakarta hotel prior to pick up and transfer to Citeko. The Pullman (formerly Nikko) Hotel and the Sari Pan Pacific Hotel, both on Jl. M.H. Thamrin Jakarta are highly recommended. Notes For anybody who wishes to meet for dinner on the th 9 be in the Pullman main foyer on Jl. M.H. Thamrin Jakarta at 18.45 for a 19.00 departure. For Sunday pick up at Pullman or Sari Pan Pacific please be ready in hotel foyers at 10:00. Other hotels by arrangement. Arriving delegates are introduced through social activities, including evening Icebreaker function. Each participant will pay 40 USD/day (cash) including room, breakfast, two coffee breaks, lunch and dinner. Chair: Peter Lechner
Sunday 10th (Citeko)
Evening : Scientific Organising Committee (SOC) and Local Organising Committee (LOC) meetings Chair of LOC: Dr Edvin Aldrian & Mr Syamsul Huda (BMKG) Chair of SOC: Dr Andrew Tupper (BOM) & Mr Larry Mastin (USGS)
Monday 11th
Session 1 - Opening 10.00 10.25 Welcoming speech from Dr Sri Woro B. Haridjono, M.Sc, Director General of BMKG) 10.25 10.30 Response from Dr Herbert Puempel, WMO 10.30 10.55 Keynote speech - Dr Surono, Director of CVGHM 10.55 11.20 Keynote speech Ir. Ichwanul Idrus, Director of Navigation
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11.20 - 11.30 Coffee Break 11.30 12.00 Peter Lechner The International Volcanic Ash Task Force 12.00 13.30 - Lunch Session 2 Recent experiences 13.30 - 14.15 - Discussion Merapi eruptions 14.15 14.45 VASAG members overview of 201013 science meetings (including VASAG, ins and outs etc) Session 3 Volcanic hazards 20 minute talks 14.45 15:25 (2 talks) Patrick Whelley VEI probabilities in SE Asia Brad Scott Volcanic Monitoring in the New Zealand region 15:25 15:40 Coffee Break 15:40 17:00 (5 talks) Nicolas Brachet - Contribution of CTBTO Infrasound Data to Volcano Monitoring: Remote Infrasound Monitoring of Mount Etna Observed and Predicted Network Detection Capability Peter Kreft - Weather radar imagery of New Zealand volcanic eruptions Richard Yeo Waiting for the next eruption Sungsu Lee - Mitigating Volcanic Disaster in Korea and Surrounding Region Tupper - Puyehue-Cordn Caulle, Eyjafjallajkull and other distractions the risk of over-confidence in volcanic ash cloud warnings 17.30 19.00 Opportunity for side meetings Tuesday 12th 19.00 Welcome Dinner and Traditional Dance Session 4 Remote sensing and airborne observation 08:30 10:10 (5 talks) Michael Pavolonis - Development of a System for Quantitatively Analyzing Volcanic Clouds Yukio Kurihara - Volcanic Ash Product at Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Marianne Koenig EUMETSAT Volcanic Ash Products Claus Zehner Monitoring Volcanic Ash from Space activities at ESA Fred Prata - The Airborne Volcanic Object Imaging Detector (AVOID) a new instrument for probing volcanic clouds 10.10 10.30 Coffee Break 10.30 12.10 (5 talks) Marianne Guffanti - Multi-Partner Experiment to Test Volcanic-Ash Ingestion by a Jet Engine) Matthew Watson - Integrating NWP into volcanic ash retrievals Simon Carn - Advances in UV remote sensing of volcanic clouds and satellite sensor synergy Chair : Simon Carn Chair: Herbert Puempel (note Indonesian delegates in particular are encouraged to bring powerpoint slides and discussion points regarding Merapi and other volcanoes) Chair: Chris Newhall
Monday 11 (continued)
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Chair: Fred Prata
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Ruica Vujasinovi - Visible Volcanic Ash: Setting the limit or not? Bernadett Weinzierl - On the difficulty to define a threshold for visible ash 12.10 - 13.30 Lunch Session 5 Modelling 13.30 15.10 (5 talks) Costanza Bonadonna - Characterization of the eruption source term and associated uncertainties Larry Mastin - Promises and pitfalls in using 1-D plume models to estimate eruption rate Marcus Bursik - Uncertainty propagation in ash transport models Andrew Hogg - The effects of wind on the rise of volcanic plumes and the intrusions of volcanic ash Claire Witham - The challenges of modelling ash concentrations involved in aircraft encounters 15.10 15.30 Coffee Break 15.30 - 17.00 Introduction to field trip Chris Newhall Break-out sessions 16.00 17.00 (ish): 1) Volcanic hazards includes discussion of volcanic monitoring, near-source volcanic plume monitoring including use of radar, data exchange, MWO/VAAC relationships 2) Satellite remote sensing and airborne observation 3) Ash dispersion modelling Side meeting 17:30 19:00 VAAC managers review progress since Best Practice 2 meeting Wednesday 13th 19.00 Dinner and Entertainment Programme 08.30 15.00 Field trip 16.00 17.00 (ish) Break-out groups report back rappoteurs (15 minutes each and general discussion) 19.00 Dinner and Entertainment Programme Thursday 14th Session 6 Training, competency, and quality management Chair: Claire Witham 08.30 10.45 (6 presentations) Emile Jansons - VAAC Service Delivery: a Competency Based Approach Peter Kreft - Some aspects of operational practice at Wellington VAAC Chris Lucas Volcanic Ash Research at CAWCR Jeff Osiensky - Modernization of Alaska Aviation Weather Unit and Anchorage VAAC Toshiyuki Sakurai Practical problems in distinguishing
Chair: Marianne Guffanti
Chair: Andrew Tupper
BMKG will cover the cost of the field trip including transport and a lunch box.
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ash clouds from each other Joseph Mbolidi (5 minutes) - For a better watch of Volcanoes in ASECNA area 10.45 - 11.00 Coffee Break 11.00 - 12.00 Thorny issues discussion 12.00 - 13.30 Lunch Session 7 Best practice 13.30 - 17.30 Best Practice Exercise (includes coffee break) Groups asked to consider current versus aspirational practices, including possible future International Airways Volcano Watch products to meet the evolving requirements of the industry (e.g. confidence levels, risk assessments, role of the SIGMET & local liaison, longer range forecasts, harmonisation 16.00 17.00 Report back and agreed actions to take forward 19.00 Dinner and Entertainment Programme Friday 15th 08.30 10.15 Break-out meetings by theme discussing key outcomes and future directions, preparing draft text for report 10.15 - 10.30 Coffee Break 10.30 - 12.00 Continuing Break-out meetings by theme discussing key outcomes and future directions, preparing draft text for report 12.00 - 13.30 Lunch 13.30 - 14.30 Report back from break-out groups, discussion of meeting report and wrap-up 14.30 Closing ceremony Saturday 16th 15.00 Delegates return to Jakarta (own cost for hotel) All delegates depart Chairs: Larry Mastin & Marianne Guffanti Note schedule for Friday may be varied by mutual agreement depending on progress of discussions. Chairs: Ian Lisk & Andrew Tupper Chair: Peter Lechner
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Appendix 2

AVAILABLE PARTICIPANTS BIOGRAPHIES

ALDRIAN, Edvin Edvin Aldrian is a Director of Center for Climate Change and Air Quality of BMKG since 2009. He is also an Associate Professor on Meteorology and Climatology in Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT Indonesia). He received his undergraduate Physic Engineering degree from McMaster University in Canada, a MSc in Earth Science from Nagoya University, and a doctoral degree in Climate Modeling from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology University of Hamburg. He is also a Lead Author for IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. BONADONNA, Costanza Costanza Bonadonna is an associate Professor at the Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences of the University of Geneva and director of the CERG-C (Specialization certificate for the assessment and management of geological and climate related risk; www.unige.ch/hazards/). She received her undergraduate Geology degree at the University of Pisa, Italy, and completed her PhD at the University of Bristol, UK. She was then awarded the position of Young Investigator at the University of Hawaii and was later appointed the position of Assistant Professor at the University of South Florida, USA. Her research focuses on various aspects of explosive volcanism and is based on the integration of theoretical, numerical and field approaches. She is particularly interested in the characterization of tephra deposits and in the study of sedimentation from volcanic plumes and of the associated hazards. Between 2003 and 2012 she was the leader of the IAVCEI Commission on Tephra Hazard Modelling. BURSIK, Marcus Marcus Bursik has been Professor of Geology for 21 years at the University of Buffalo, New York, USA. Before that, he was a member of the technical staff at Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA). He earned his Ph.D. degree in 1989 from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). One of his primary research interests has been the modeling of volcanic plumes and tephra deposition.
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BRACHET, Nicolas Nicolas Brachet has held the position of Acoustic officer at the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) in Vienna for 12 years (1998-2010). Nicolas has contributed to develop an operational chain of processing for infrasound data at the IDC, and to promote the usage of infrasound technology for scientific and civil applications. His first participation to a workshop on volcanic ash was in 2007 in Rotorua, New Zealand (4th IAVWOPSG). Back to France in 2010, Nicolas is continuing his work on CTBT verification as seismo-acoustic engineer in the National Data Centre at Commissariat lnergie atomique et aux nergies alternatives (CEA). Alongside this work, Nicolas has been taking an active part in the ARISE project (Atmospheric dynamics Research InfraStructure in Europe) that was launched in January 2012, and which uses the same common theme (the understanding of the atmosphere dynamics) to bridge various communities from atmospheric science (infrasound, LIDAR, airglow) to volcanology and civil aviation. CARN, Simon Simon A. Carn is Associate Professor of geology in the Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences at Michigan Technological University in Houghton, MI. He received a BA in Earth Science from Oxford University (UK) in 1993, an MSc in Volcanology from lUniversit Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand (France), in 1994, and a PhD in volcanology from the University of Cambridge (UK) in 1999. Following his PhD he worked as a volcanologist at the Montserrat Volcano Observatory, Montserrat, West Indies, monitoring the active Soufrire Hills volcano. From 2001-2008, Simon was a postdoctoral research associate and research scientist in the Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology (JCET), University of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), USA, working with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) volcanic emissions group at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. He joined Michigan Tech as Assistant Professor in Fall 2008. Simons main research focus is satellite remote sensing of volcanic emissions (primarily sulfur dioxide, SO2) using ultraviolet (UV) and infrared (IR) sensors, including TOMS and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and synergistic use of sensors in NASAs A-Train spacecraft constellation. GUFFANTI, Marianne Marianne Guffanti is a senior geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, stationed at USGS headquarters in Reston, Virginia, outside of Washington DC. Her areas of expertise include geothermal resources, the volcano-tectonic framework of the Cascade Range, and volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. From 1996 to 2001, she was Coordinator of the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, which operates the five U.S. volcano observatories. Since rotating out of that position, she leads USGS activities related to volcanic hazards to aviation at the national and international level, serving as a volcanological advisor to the FAA and International Civil Aviation Organization. She has been a member of the IAVWOPSG since 2005 and recently served on ICAOs International Volcanic Ash Task Force.
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HOGG, Andrew Andrew Hogg is a Reader in Applied Mathematics at the University of Bristol. His research interests include modelling two-phase flows with particular application to environmental and geophysical flows. Recent research projects feature modelling granular avalanches and the design of barriers to deflect and arrest flows; the runout of large-scale turbidity currents in the ocean and pyroclastic flows in the atmosphere; the transport of suspended sediment in coastal regions; and the motion of viscoplastic materials.
HUDA, Syamsul Mr Syamsul Huda is Director of the Aviation and Marine Meteorological Centre of BMKG. He is responsible to manage all information services (including SIGMET), implementation of WMO Strategic Plan in Indonesia (BMKG) and international cooperation matters for aviation and marine meteorology. Mr Syamsul has professional experience about management of Met Offices, forecasting and has been an honorary teaching associate at Meteorological Climatological and Geophysics Academy of Jakarta.
HUSSON, Philippe Philippe Husson is deputy head of the central aviation forecast department of Mto-France. He is the manager of the VAAC Toulouse and has been involved in the IAVW for more than 10 years. He is a meteorologist and had worked in weather forecast from remote Kerguelen Islands to La Runion (there, as a tropical cyclone forecaster), before getting back to the Mtopole in Toulouse, where he has been working in the field of aviation weather since 1994.
JANSONS, Emile Emile Jansons is the manager of the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre at the Bureau of Meteorology since 2011. Emile has previously worked as a Meteorologist in the Bureau of Meteorologys Darwin office and has professional experience that includes tropical cyclone, aviation and severe weather forecasting. Emile was born in Port Douglas in the far north of Australia and prior to joining the Bureau of Meteorology was involved in radiation physics research at the University of Melbourne.
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KOENIG, Marianne Marianne Koenig studied meteorology at the University of Cologne (Germany) where she got her MSc in 1979 and PhD in 1982. Work for both degrees was on the Earth radiation balance and the specific radiative forcing of clouds, already using the first data of the European Meteosat satellite. In 1983 she joined the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven, Germany, where she was involved in research campaigns to the Arctic and Antarctic. In 1995 she went back to satellite meteorology and joined EUMETSAT. Since then shewas involved in the definition of product retrieval algorithms for the European geostationary satellite systems, including the preparation for new programmes as e.g. the Meteosat Second Generation series in the late 1990s and preparation for Meteosat Third Generation since 2010. She is currently leading the group for atmospheric applications of meteorological imager data, volcanic ash retrievals being one of the applications. Her group works closely with the international science community. KREFT, Peter Peter has been a meteorologist for over 30 years. Hes spent about half of this time working in the National Forecast Centre, as both a forecaster and a manager, and the other half recruiting and training New Zealands meteorologists. Peter used to get his practical weather experience by falling off his surfboard, which he was far better at than standing on it. These days, he estimates the wind strength when trying to run up Wellingtons hills. Peters particular area of expertise is broad-scale weather systems and he has been an honorary teaching associate at Victoria University of Wellington. He is Chief Forecaster at Meteorological Service of New Zealand Limited.
KURIHARA, Yukio Yukio KURIHARA is a member of System Engineering Division, Data Processing Department, Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC), JMA. He is working on development of VA product. He is also taking charge of maintenance and development of space-based products, SST, Sea Ice, Aerosol, etc. for MTSAT-2 and next Japanese Meteorological Satellite, Himawari-8/9.
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LECHNER, Peter Peter Lechner is the Chief Meteorological Officer for the Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand, having managed the CAAs meteorological responsibilities for 19 years. Alongside this work, Peter has held positions in senior management responsible for strategic planning and reporting. In this regard he has just completed a 3-year business and funding review resulting in new user charges and organisational change. Peter has participated strongly in aviation meteorological systems development through various International Civil Aviation Organization forums over many years. He has been Chairman of the International Airways Volcano Watch management group since its inception and chaired the recent International Volcanic Ash Task Force. Prior to coming to the CAA, Peter spent 18 years with the New Zealand Meteorological Service in various operational and management positions. He has qualifications in meteorology and physics, as well as a Masters in Business Administration, and he maintains a private pilots license. LEE, Sungsu Sungsu Lee is the Director of VDPRC (Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center) which has recently been established in Rep. of Korea, sponsored by NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency), and a Professor in School of Civil Engineering in Chungbuk National University. He has been a professional wind engineer and micro-meteorologist for 15 years since his doctoral degree from Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, USA. Before he assume the position of director of VDPRC, he has long been working in the field of risk assessment on structures and socio-economic impacts from the natural disasters of large scale, in particular, typhoon and storm surge. Upon his experiences of natural hazard and air flow simulation, he has joined the task force team to study neighboring risk from volcanoes round Rep. of Korea, which later became VDPRC. LISK, Ian Ian is the UK Met Office Volcanic Ash Programme Manager. This includes overseeing the activities of VAAC London and the ensuring the pull through of new and evolving dispersion modelling and volcanic ash observational science into our operations. Fundamental to his role is the maintenance and development of national and international partnerships and collaborations with academia, other organizations and the broader aviation industry itself. He is the volcanic ash lead for EUMETNET (European network of 29 NMS) and in this is currently leading EUMETNETs contribution to a European Commission funded volcanic ash capabilities research project, WEZARD. As the vice-president of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology, he has responsibility for helping to oversee and direct WMOs role, on behalf of its 189 Members, in responding to the requirements of the global aviation industry, primarily through the agreed working arrangements between WMO and ICAO. Hes worked for the Met Office for 27 years as an observer, forecaster, instructor and manager and is married with 3 kids.
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LUCAS, Chris Chris Lucas is a research scientist in the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) at the Bureau of Meteorology since 2004. Chris is currently working on a project to improve volcanic ash detection and forecasting products issued by the Bureau of Meteorology through the Darwin VAAC. Other areas of research include the changing nature of the global-scale meridional circulation and the intersection of climate and bushfire in Australia. Prior to joining CAWCR, Chris was a lecturer and post-doctoral fellow at Adelaide University. Chris obtained his PhD in Meteorology from Texas A&M University in 1998. MASTIN, Larry Larry is a physical volcanologist at the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, specializing in the physics and hazards associated with explosive volcanic eruptions. Amongst other things, Larry is currently the co-chair of the WMO-IUGG Volcanic Ash Science Advisory Group. At USGS, he experiments on and develops numerical models of processes such as the fragmentation, transport, aggregation, and deposition of volcanic tephra. He has worked at the USGS in this capacity since 1990. He obtained his Ph.D. in Geomechanics from Stanford University in 1988 and, from 1988 to 1990, worked as a post-doctoral researcher in Karlsruhe, Germany, compiling data on tectonic stress in Western Europe. He is married to Carolyn Driedger (a volcanologist who also works at the USGS). They have a sixteen-year-old adopted Chinese daughter, Clara. MASUDA, Kazuhiko Kazuhiko Masuda is the head of the 1st laboratory of Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research Department in Meteorological Research Institute/Japan Meteorological Agency. He is involved in the research of theoretical calculation of non-spherical particles such as volcanic ash, modeling of sea surface emissivity for radiative transfer calculation, and retrieval of dust aerosols from satellites such as GMSand MTSAT.
MBOLIDI, Joseph Joseph MBOLIDI is Meteorologist Engineer, Responsible for Meteorological Forecasting and Air Navigation Protection, ASECNA Headquarters Dakar Senegal. Specialist in aviation Meteorology, satellite Meteorology and Climate Change. He is in charge of following for ASECNA, all international activities in relation to volcanic ash since Eyjafjallajkull eruption in 2010. He recently organized at Douala (Cameroon) two meetings on Volcanic Ash for ASECNA Meteorologists. First one in collaboration with Toulouse VAAC (November 2011), on National and Regional coordination of Volcanoes eruptions, and the second related to Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation Messages (October 2012). He is acting to ameliorate National, Regional and Global coordination for a better Watch of Mont Cameroun, Karthala, and Piton de la Fournaise volcanoes. (ASECNA is Agency for Aerial Navigation Safety in Africa and Madagascar)
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MINER, Cecilia Cecilia Miner is an aviation meteorologist in the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Aviation Weather Services Branch. She is currently the NWS Volcanic Ash Program Manager and also works issues related to the U.S. NextGen program and participates in the WMO Expert Team developing proposals to modernize the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. Her background includes a Ph.D. in Meteorology, 22 years as an aviation meteorologist in various roles in the U.S. Air Force, and 2 years as a contractor for the Federal Aviation Administration.
MUSCAT, Anton Antons current role in the UK Met Office is described as the Strategic Operations Manager for Government Services. He isalso the Operations Manager for London VAAC and is also responsible for the provision of other Emergency Response-type atmospheric dispersion forecast products on behalf of the UK Met Office, including nuclear and biological contaminants. Linked to this he sits on a WMO Expert Team relating to Nuclear and non-Nuclear Emergency Response Activities. Anton has been with the Met Office for 22 years (going straight from University in 1990) and has worked in Research, Forecasting and Management roles during that time. NEWHALL, Chris Chris Newhall is leader of the Volcano Group of the Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS), at Nanyang Technological University (NTU). Prior to coming to EOS, he was a founding member of the US Geological Surveys Volcano Disaster Assistance Team, where he worked on many crises including that of Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991. He has had the pleasure of working with Indonesias Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) for many years, starting at Merapi in 1981 and continuing today with an EOS-CVGHM project at Gede and Salak Volcanoes. Although most of his work focuses on eruptive histories and forecasting eruptions, he has been involved in issues of ash hazard to aviation in several capacities. He led organization of the First Intl. Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1991) and represented the World Organisation of Volcano Observatories (WOVO) on the ICAO International Volcanic Ash Task Force. Hes also representing WOVO during this WMO-BMKG workshop. NOERDIANI, Dinni Dinni Noerdiani is a Deputy Director of Aeronautical Information Management-Directorate of Air Navigation, responsible to issue and publish the aeronautical information such as AIP and its elements, Aeronautical Chart and handling NOTAM Office for issuing and disseminating NOTAM/ASHTAM.
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OSIENSKY, Jeffrey Jeff Osiensky is the Acting Chief of the Environmental and Scientific Services Division of the U.S. National Weather Services Alaska Region. In this capacity, Jeff leads the meteorological and science/technology initiatives within NOAA/NWS Alaska Region. In addition, Jeff is the NOAA/NWS Alaska Regional Aviation and Volcanic Ash meteorologist. During Jeffs 25 year career with NOAA/NWS, he has worked for 15 years leading operational aviation forecast offices in Alaska including the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit/Anchorage VAAC and managing the NWS Alaska aviation program. Jeff has been involved in various volcanic ash working groups over the past 10 years including ICAO IAVWOPSG, NOAA Volcanic Ash Working Group, U.S. Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology (OFCM) Volcanic Ash Working Group and the Alaska Interagency Volcanic Ash Working Group. PRATA, Fred Fred Prata is a senior scientist at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) and the Chief Technical Officer of Nicarnica Aviation AS, a recently established small company aimed at providing services and products to the aviation industry. Dr Prata studied physics at Imperial College, London University, and atmospheric physics at Oxford University, before immigrating to Australia and working at CSIRIO for 23 years. He now works and lives near Oslo in Norway and is involved in European space activities, especially with ESA and Eumetsat. He has published over 100 peer reviewed papers, many of them on volcanic ash and aviation. PUEMPEL, Herbert Herbert Puempel is Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Division and Officer in Charge of Meteorological Applications Branch and WMO Quality Management Framework. Born: 14 Nov 1951 in Innsbruck, Austria, University Education: University of Innsbruck, Studies in Theoretical Physics, Dynamic Meteorology, Ph.D. in Meteorology and Physics obtained in 1978. Member of the Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology, WMO, 19902006. Chief of Aeronautical Meteorology Division, WMO, since 2006. Officer-in-charge, Quality Management Framework, WMO, since 2008. WMO officer in charge of Volcanic Ash issues, promoted the foundation of the VASAG in 2010, WMO representative on the IAVWOPSG and th th th IVATF, Secretariat support to 4 , 5 and 6 WMO/ICAO Scientific Workshop on Volcanic Ash, co-organizer of 3 Best Practice Workshops, and of the forthcoming 2nd IAVCEI-WMO Meeting on Ash Dispersal Forecasting and Civil Aviation, Geneva, 18-20 November 2013.
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ROMERO, Raul Raul Romero is a meteorologist, working as senior technical officer within the Meteorology Section of the Air Navigation Bureau of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) since the year 2000. As part of his ICAO responsibilities, he is currently the Secretary of two experts groups, the World Area Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG) and the International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) which provide advice ICAO concerning both operational systems (WAFS and IAVW). He also assisted the Secretary of the ICAO International Volcanic Ash Task Force, established during 2010-2012 to address the issues caused by the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Efjajallajkull. Prior to joining ICAO Raul worked in his home country, Uruguay, for 24 years in the field of Meteorology where he reached the positions of Director of Aeronautical Meteorology and Director of the Meteorological Service of the Air Force. SAKURAI, Toshiyuki Toshiyuki Sakurai is a forecaster of Tokyo VAAC in Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). He has been working for Tokyo VAAC for 7 years and is taking charge of supporting operation in technical field such as satellite analysis and dispersion models. He worked in Meteorological Satellite Center in JMA from 1993 to 2005. He has experience in cloud analysis, typhoon analysis and satellite control of Himawari.
SCOTT, Brad Brad Scott is the volcano surveillance coordinator of GNS New Zealand. He has extensive experience in volcano hazard assessments, including eruptions in Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Vanuatu, Antarctica and New Zealand. He has also been involved in research and monitoring of geothermal systems, including hydrotherma eruptions and post earthquake investigations (eg. Edgecumbe 1987, Lake Tennyson 1990). He has a wide experience in monitoring seismic and geodetic activity and the analysis and reporting of these data. SURONO Dr Surono was born 8 July 1955 as a leading Indonesian geophysicist and volcanologist. He is the head of the Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, (CVGHM) Geological Agency. After graduating from the Bandung Institute of Technology in 1982 with a degree in physics, he studied at Grenoble University in France. He graduated from the University of Savoy, Chambry in 1993 with a doctorate in geophysics. He became the Head of Physical Volcanology at the Volcano Analysis Division Volcanological Survey in Indonesia in 1993. In 2001 he became the head of the Geological Hazard Mitigation Division Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, and in 2005 was appointed as Director of the CVGHM.
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TUPPER, Andrew Andrew Tupper is the Northern Territory Regional Director of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. He has extensive forecasting experience, and for his PhD focused on volcanic ash clouds in the moist tropics. Dr Tupper is currently co-chair of the WMO-IUGG Volcanic Ash Science Advisory Group, and has had various other roles including as the manager of the Darwin VAAC. From 2008-2010 he also served as Chair of the Environment Protection Authority in the Northern Territory. Andrew has mostly lived in Melbourne and Darwin in Australia, and during 2002-04 in Kagoshima in southern Japan. He is married with four sons, and enjoys singing and reading to relax. VUJASINOVI, Ruica RuicaVujasinovi is a researcher at German Aerospace Center (DLR) working in the Department of Pilots Assistance within Institute of Flight Guidance in Braunschweig, Germany. Her research interests include all issues concerning volcanic ash and ATM system. She received M.Sc. in air traffic and transport engineering from the Faculty of transport and traffic engineering, the Belgrade University, Serbia. Since 2010, she lives and works in Germany.
WATSON, Matt Matts research involves inversion of remotely-sensed data to retrieve physical parameters of volcanic plumes and clouds over several spatial scales, using both ground- and satellite-based techniques. These include ultraviolet (DOAS, UV camera) and thermal infrared (FLIR, ASTER) gas spectroscopy, and visible - near infrared (Sun-photometers) and thermal infrared aerosol retrievals (MODIS, AIRS, IASI). He is a member of the Volcanic Ash Observations Review Group (VAORG) that reports directly to the UK Government and was a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) during the Icelandic ash crises. He is currently involved in five large projects two focus of climate engineering (SPICE and EuTRACE), two of remote sensing of ash clouds (VANAHEIM and CREDIBLE) and one on increasing resilience in volcanic regions (STREVA).
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WEBER, Konradin Konradin Weber is Professor of Physics at the Duesseldorf University of Applied Sciences (FHD) in Germany since about 20 years. He is head of the Laboratory for Environmental Measurement Techniques (LEMT) at FHD. He has many years of experience in the development of optical measurement systems for aerosols and air pollutants. Moreover he is involved in the measurement of volcanic emissions all over the world. During the last years he focused his work on airborne volcano research with piston motor driven aircraft, which have the potential to fly even in high ash plume concentrations. He performed a large number of volcanic plume flights during the eruptions of Eyjafjallajkull, Grimsvtn, Etna, Stromboli, Sakurajima and is strongly involved in quality assurance of these measurements. His laboratory is in contract with the German Weather Service (DWD) for a research aircraft standby in case of another eruption of a European volcano and had a similar research aircraft standby for the CAA UK during the Olympic Games 2012 in London. WEINZIERL, Bernadett Bernadett Weinzierl is a research scientist at DLR, and a Junior Professor at the Ludwig Maximilians University (LMU), Munich. Since May, 2010, she is the Head of the Helmholtz-University Young Investigators Group AerCARE (www.pa.op.dlr.de/aercare). Her primary research interests involve airborne aerosol in-situ measurements, microphysical and optical properties of aerosols (mineral dust, black carbon, and volcanic ash), the impact of elevated aerosol layers on atmosphere and climate, the impact of absorbing aerosol layers on atmospheric stability, and combining in-situ and lidar measurements to learn more about aerosols. She received her Ph.D. in 2008 from LMU, studying radiatively-driven processes in forest fire and desert dust plumes, her Diploma degree from LMU in 2004 studying tropical convergence lines, and her Bachelors degree in church music in 2002. WHELLEY, Patrick Patrick L. Whelley received his B.S. and M.S. degrees in Geological Sciences from Arizona State University in Tempe Arizona in 2005 and 2007 respectively, and his PhD in Geology from the University at Buffalo, SUNY in Buffalo, NY in 2012. He is currently a Research Fellow at the Earth Observatory of Singapore, within Nanyang Technological University, investigating the likelihood of volcanic ash-aircraft encounters in Southeast Asia. His research interest include combining remote sensing and field geology observations of volcanic deposit morphology to study physical volcanology and geohazards, as well as studying aeolian and volcanic processes on the terrestrial planets.
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WITHAM, Claire Claire Witham works at the UK Met Office in the Atmospheric Dispersion Group. Her work includes the development of the representation of volcanic ash and eruption plumes in the Met Office atmospheric dispersion model NAME; provision of R&D support to the London VAAC; development of systems for VAAC forecasters to run NAME, and improving the underpinning science through collaboration with many UK and international research groups. Claire also contributes to other emergency response applications of NAME, including nuclear accidents and industrial fires. Prior to joining the Met Office in 2005, Claire did a PhD at the University of Cambridge investigating the dispersion, chemistry and human and environmental impacts of volcanic eruption plumes. YATES, Tony Tony Yates is the Manager of Upper Airspace Weather Services for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Tony spent 20 years as an operational meteorologist working at various sites around Australia, including Darwin, Perth, Hobart and also Antarctica before moving into the services policy arena three years ago. He also manages the embedded meteorological unit at the Airservices Australia National Operations Centre in Canberra. This unit plays a role in the dissemination of volcanic ash information to the aviation community during major events. YEO, Richard Richard Yeo is the leader of the Icelandic met offices remote sensing group. The groups primary responsibilities cover the operation and data product generation of the radar and optical sensor networks. Coming from a background in upper atmospheric physics and electronic engineering, Richard has spent the last 20 years involved in various aspects of environmental sensing and the development of instrumentation and measurement platforms. Current research and development projects include investigating the use of autonomous aircraft to provide low-cost/low risk volcanic plume data, and gas monitoring systems to detect magmatic changes. ZEHNER, Claus Claus Zehner, born on 21.09.1965 in Austria, has graduated during 1992 at the University of Technoloy Graz in geophysics and did during 2005 a PhD at the Karl Franzens University Graz in the field of atmospheric science. As an employee of the European Space Agency (ESA) he has been working during the last 20 years on the exploitation of atmospheric satellite data
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Appendix 3 List of Participants

Indonesian delegates
Name Title, Institution Head of CVGHM (Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation) Deputy Director of Aeronautical Information Management-Directorate of Air Navigation Director of Center for Climate Change and Air Quality Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) Jakarta - Indonesia Director of Aviation and Marine Meteorological Centre Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) Jakarta - Indonesia Head of Meteorological Climatological Geophisyc Regional Office I - Medan Head of Administration Services Sub Division, Meteorological Climatological Geophisyc Regional Office I - Medan Head of Meteorological Climatological Geophisyc Regional Office II - Ciputat Staff of Meteorological Climatological Geophisyc Regional Office III Denpasar Head of Meteorological Station Makasar Head of Administration Services Sub Division, Meteorological Climatological Geophisyc Regional Office IV Makasar Staff of CVGHM Staff of CVGHM Staff of CVGHM ATC Cengkareng ATC Yogyakarta Head of Meteorological Station Cengkareng E-mail
Dr. Surono Dinni Noerdiani Aldrian, Edvin
surono@vsi.esdm.go.id dinni_n@yahoo.com edvin.aldrian@bmkg.go.id
Huda, Syamsul
hsyamsul@hotmail.com
Drs. Herry Saroso,
herry_saroso@yahoo.com; herry_saroso@hotmail.com heront_sibero@yahoo.co.id ; bbmgw1@yahoo.com subard.bmg@gmail.com ; subardjo@bmkg.go.id asrori@bmkg.go.id ahmadmujahidin@yahoo.com
Heron Tarigan Drs. Subardjo, Dipl. Seis Asrori Ahmad Mujahiddin
Sujarwo M. Nugraha Kartadinata Anjar Heriwaseso Oktory Prambada Isyak, SE Karno, S.Si.T Joko Siswanto
sjr75@yahoo.co.id nugraha@vsi.esdm.go.id anjar@vsi.esdm.go.id oktory@vsi.esdm.go.id isyaktea@yahoo.com karno_64@yahoo.com jokosiswanto_batam@yahoo.com
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Iwani Gema Staff of Directorat General of Civil aviation Head of Meteorological Station Citeko Pilot - Manager Technical Operation Standard Garuda Indonesia Chief of Operations and Training Standards section - Basarnas Staff of Sub Directorate Flight Communications Staff of Sub Directorate Standardization and Certification of Air Navigation iwan66rokot@yahoo.co.id stamet.citeko@bmkg.go.id leewijaya@yahoo.com joaniefhitriah@gmail.com trisnametria@gmail.com ahadiat.yudistira@gmail.com
Ir. Alidia, MM Capt. Leo Wijaya Dody Haryanto Trisna Metria Ahadiat Adhi Yudhistira
International delegates Name Andrioli, Miriam Bonadonna, Costanza Title, Institution Buenos Aires VAAC Buenos Aires, Argentina Professor, Volcanologist Section des sciences de la Terre et de l'environnement Universit de Genve Rue des Marachers 13 CH-1205, Genve, Suisse Commissariat lEnergie Atomique (CEA/DAM/DIF, France Professor, Volcanologist Department of Geology State University of New York Buffalo, New York, USA Associate Professor Dept of Geological and Mineral Engineering Sciences Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Drive Houghton, MI 49931 USA Senior Geologist U.S. Geological Survey Reston, Virginia, USA Centre for Environmental & Geophysical Flows School of Mathematics University of Bristol University Walk Bristol BS8 1TW Toulouse VAAC MeteoFrance Toulouse 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis 31057 ToulouseCedex 1, France Manager Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre Australian Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Regional Office PO Box 40050Casuarina NT 0811 E-mail andrioli@smn.gov.ar Costanza.Bonadonna@unige.ch
Brachet, Nicolas Bursik Marcus
Nicolas.BRACHET@CEA.FR mib@geology.buffalo.edu
Carn, Simon
scarn@mtu.edu
Guffanti, Marianne Hogg, Andrew
guffanti@usgs.gov a.j.hogg@bristol.ac.uk
Husson, Philippe
philippe.husson@meteo.fr
Jansons, Emile
e.jansons@bom.gov.au
31
Koenig, Marianne Meteorological Scientist Section Head Atmospheric Imagery Applications EUMETSAT Chief Forecaster Met Service of New Zealand Limited System Engineering Division Data Processing Department Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) Jakarta - Indonesia Chief Meteorological Officer Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand Asteron House, 55 Featherston Street PO Box 3555, Wellington, New Zealand Professor, School of Civil Engineering Chungbuk National University Director, Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center 52 Naesurodong-ro, Cheongju, Rep. of Korea Volcanic Ash Programme Manager U.K. Met. Office FitzRoy RoadExeterEX1 3PBUnited Kingdom Research Scientist Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289 Melbourne, 3001, Australia U.S. Geological Survey USGS, David A. Johnston Cascades Volcano Observatory 1300 SE Cardinal Court Vancouver, WashingtonUSA 98683 Head of the First Laboratory of Meteorological Satellite and Observation System Research Department Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Met Forecast and Air Navigation Assistance Manager, ASECNA Headquarters P.O Box 3144, Dakar, Senegal Aviation Meteorologist NOAA Volcanic Ash Program Manager 1325 East West Highway, room 13316 Silver Spring, MD20910, USA Strategic Operations Manager for Government Services U.K. Met. Office FitzRoy RoadExeterEX1 3PBUnited Kingdom Marianne.Koenig@eumetsat.int
Kreft, Peter Kurihara, Yukio
peter.kreft@metservice.com yukio.kurihara-a@met.kishou.go.jp
Kurniawan, Edison Lechner, Peter
Edison.kurniawan0503@gmail.com Peter.Lechnew@caa.govt.nz
Lee, Sungsu
sungsu.lee99@gmail.com joshua@cbnu.ac.kr
Lisk, Ian
Ian.Lisk@metoffice.gov.uk
Lucas, Chris
C.Lucas@bom.gov.au
Mastin, Larry
lgmastin@usgs.gov
Masuda, Kazuhiko
masuda@mri-jma.go.jp
Mbolidi, Joseph
mbolidi2000@yahoo.fr
Miner, Cecilia
cecilia.miner@noaa.gov
Muscat, Anton
anton.muscat@metoffice.gov.uk
32
Newhall, Chris Volcano Group Leader Earth Observatory of Singapore Nanyang Technological University 50 Nanyang Ave, Blk N2-01a-10 Singapore 639798 Acting Chief, Environmental and Scientific Services Division Regional Aviation/Volcanic Ash Meteorologist NOAA/National Weather Service Alaska Region Headquarters 222 West 7th Avenue, #23 Room 517 Anchorage, Alaska99513-7575 Remote Sensing Specialist NOAA/NESDIS Madison, Wisconsin, USA Senior Scientist Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) Chief Technical Officer, Nicarnica Aviation AS Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Division World Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland Meteorologist, Technical Officer Meteorology Section, Air Navigation Bureau International Civil Aviation Organization 999 University, Montreal Quebec H3C 5H7 Canada Forecaster, Tokyo VAAC Volcanological Division Seismological and Volcanological Dept. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Volcano Surveillance Coordinator GNS Science 114 Karetoto Road, RD4, Taupo 3384 Private Bag 2000, Taupo 3352 New Zealand Director of Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation(CVGHM) Bureau of Meteorology Darwin, Australia, PO Box 40050, Casuarina NT 0811, Australia German Aerospace Center (DLR) Institute of Flight Guidance, Department of Pilots Assistance Lilienthalplatz 7 38108 Braunschweig Germany Senior Lecturer School of Earth Sciences University of Bristol Wills Memorial Building, Queen's Road, BristolBS8 1RJ, UK cnewhall@ntu.edu.sg
Osiensky, Jeff
jeffrey.osiensky@noaa.gov
Pavolonis, Michael Prata, Fred
Mike.Pavolonis@noaa.gov fred.prata@nilu.no
Puempel, Herbert
hpuempel@wmo.int
Romero, Raul
rromero@icao.int
Sakurai, Toshiyuki
sakurai@met.kishou.go.jp
Scott, Bradley
B.Scott@gns.cri.nz
Surono, Dr. Tupper, Andrew Vujasinovic, Ruzica
surono@vsi.esdm.go.id a.tupper@bom.gov.au Ruzica.Vujasinovic@dlr.de
Watson, Matthew
matt.watson@bristol.ac.uk
33
Weber, Konradin Professor of Physics Environmental measurement techniques Fachhochschule Dsseldorf Josef-Gockeln-Str. 9 40474 Dsseldorf, Germany Helmholtz-HochschulNachwuchsgruppe AerCARE DLR Institute for Physics of the Atmosphere Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling Germany Doctoral Student Dept of Geological and Mineral Engineering Sciences Michigan Technological University 1400 Townsend Drive Houghton, MI 49931 USA Postdoctoral Fellow Earth Observatory of Singapore Nanyang Technological University 50 Nanyang Ave, Blk N2-01a-10 Singapore 639798 Volcanologist U.K. Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB UK Manager of Upper Airspace Weather Services Australian Bureau of Meteorology Remote Sensing Group Observations Department Icelandic Met. Office European Space Agency konradin.weber@fh-duesseldorf.de
Weinzierl, Bernadett
bernadett.weinzierl@dlr.de
Wellik, Jay
jjwellik@mtu.edu
Whelley, Patrick
pwhelley@ntu.edu.sg
Witham, Claire
Claire.Witham@metoffice.gov.uk
Yates, Tony Yeo, Richard Zehner, Claus
a.yates@bom.gov.au richard@vedur.is Claus.Zehner@esa.int
34

Appendix 4 Meeting Abstracts
Organizedalphabetically,bypresenter
Bonadonna,Costanza
Characterizationoftheeruptionsourcetermand associateduncertainties CostanzaBonadonna1,AntonioCosta2,Wim Degruyter3,MaurizioRipepe4,ArnauFolch5 1.UniversityofGeneva,EarthandEnvironmental ScienceSection,Geneva,Switzerland2.Istituto NazionalediGeofisicaeVulcanologia,Bologna,Italy3. GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,SchoolofEarthand AtmosphericSciences,Atlanta,USA4.Universityof Florence,DepartmentofEarthSciences,Firenze,Italy5. BarcelonaSupercomputingCenter,Barcelona,Spain Thecharacterizationofthesourcetermiscrucialto theunderstandingofvolcanicexplosiveeruptions,to therealtimeforecastingofthespreadingofthe associatedcloudsandtothelongtermassessmentof theirimpacts.Inparticular,eruptedmass,plume height,massflowrateandinitialgrainsize distributionareallfundamentalphysicalparameters thatneedtobedeterminedinordertodescribean explosiveevent.Strategiesforquantifyingthese physicalparametersmightdifferwhethertheyneed tobeestimatedinrealtimeorforlongtermhazard assessmentsandmightbecharacterizedbydifferent levelsofuncertainties.Herewepresentvarious strategiesforthecharacterizationofthesourceterm andclassificationofexplosiveeruptions.Wealso introduceanovelanalyticalexpressionthatallowsfor fastassessmentofmassflowrateofbothvertically risingandbentovervolcanicplumesasafunctionof theirheightandthataccountsfortheeffectofwind. Thisrelationshipiscomparedwithaonedimensional plumemodelandvalidatedwithobservationsofthe 1980MountSt.Helensandofthe2010 Eyjafjallajkulleruptions.Uncertaintiescanbealso reducedifmassflowrateisderiveddirectlyfrom geophysicalobservationsofsourcedynamicsatthe vent.Asanexample,exitvelocitiesderivedfrom infrasoundsignalcanbeconvertedintomassflow rateusingadditionalinformationonventdiameter andmixturedensity.Wevalidateouracoustic derivedmassflowratebyusingindependent measurementsofplumeheightsofthe2010 Eyjafjallajkulleruption.Thesenewstrategieshave importantimplicationsfortherealtimeforecasting ofashtransportintheatmosphere. Methodsofestimatingmassloadingandashcloud heightfollowingviolentvolcaniceruptionscanbe questioned.Estimatesofhowmuchashthereisand whereitiscanbeimproved,whileatthesametime errorsintheestimatescanbebetterconstrainedand reported.Perfectmeasureshoweverwillneverbe possible,thereforeitisimportanttolearnto propagateerrorsintheinputvariableandboundary conditionvaluesthroughvolcanicplumetransport models.Resultsonimprovedparameterestimation anderrorpropagationsuggestthattheseyieldbetter estimationofthepositionofashpropagatedfromthe volcanicsource,andcanleadtotimevariable, stochasticashhazardmapping.
Brachet,Nicolas
ContributionofCTBTOInfrasoundDatato VolcanoMonitoringRemoteInfrasound MonitoringofMountEtnaObservedandPredicted NetworkDetectionCapability NicolasBrachet1,AlexisLePichon1,Dorianne Tailpied1,AurlienDupont1,EmanueleMarchetti2, MaurizioRipepe2,MohamedKhallel3,LarsCeranna4, PierrickMialle5,PhilippeHusson6 1.CommissariatlEnergieAtomique(CEA/DAM/DIF, France),2.DepartmentofEarthScience,Universityof Firenze(UNIFI,Italy),3.CentreNationaldela CartographieetdelaTldtection(CNCT,Tunisia) 4.BundesanstaltfrGeowissenschaftenundRohstoffe (BGR,Germany)5.ComprehensiveNuclearTestBan TreatyOrganization(CTBTO/IDC),Austria6.Toulouse VAAC,MeteoFrance ARISE(AtmosphericdynamicsResearch InfrastructureinEurope)projectseekstoimprove theunderstandingofthedynamicsoftheatmosphere usingcomplementarysoundingmethods(infrasound, LIDARandairglowmeasurements).Theproject involvesmorethan40institutes,includingthe ComprehensiveNuclearTestBanTreaty Organization(CTBTO)whichisthemainproviderof infrasounddataandToulouseVolcanicAshAdvisory Centre(VAAC)whichispartoftheARISEAdvisory Committee. OneofthecomponentsofARISEprojectcomprises themonitoringofextremenaturalevents.Powerful volcaniceruptionsinEuropeandAfricanregionsmay causedisturbancesinthedifferentlayersofthe atmosphere.Thesefluctuationsaremeasuredby groundstationsandanalyzedinordertofindout parametricdatathatbestcharacterizethe atmosphericmodelsandthevolcanicsource. ARISEprovidescontinuitywiththecollaborative workthatwasoriginallyundertakenbyCTBTOand ToulouseVAACin2008toassesstheusefulnessof infrasonicdatatoInternationalAirwaysVolcano Watch.Asanewasset,ARISEintroducesthe
Bursik,Marcus
Uncertaintypropagationinashtransportmodels Bursik,Marcus1 1.DepartmentofGeology,StateUniversityofNewYork atBuffalo,Buffalo,NY,USA, mib@geology.buffalo.edu
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parameterizationoftheatmospheredynamicsthat drivestheinfrasoundwavepropagation.Itis expectedthattheproposedmodelingapproachhelps implementnearrealtimesignificanteruption notificationsystemfortheVAACstopreventeruption disastersandmitigatetheimpactofashcloudson aviation. experimentalforecastsofvolcaniccloudlocation, densityandverticalextent.
Guffanti,Marianne
MultiPartnerExperimenttoTestVolcanicAsh IngestionbyaJetEngine JohnLekki1,EricLyall2,MarianneGuffanti3,John Fisher4,BethErlund5,RoryClarkson6,Allanvan deWall7 1.NASA,GlennResearchCenter,USA.,2.AirForce ResearchLab,WrightPattersonAirForceBase,USA3. U.S.GeologicalSurvey,VolcanoHazardsProgram, Reston,USA4.FederalAviationAdministration, AircraftCertificationService,Boston,USA5.Rolls Royce,Derby,UK6.RollsRoyce,Derby,UK7.General Electric,Cincinnati,USA AresearchteamofU.S.Governmentagenciesand enginemanufacturersaredesigninganexperimentto testvolcanicashingestionbyaNASAownedF117 engineinthesamefamilyasthePW2000thatwas donatedbytheU.S.AirForce.Theexperimentis beingconductedundertheauspicesofNASAsVehicle IntegratedPropulsionResearch(VIPR)Programand willtakeplaceinearly2014atEdwardsAFBin Californiaasanonground,onwingtest.Theprimary objectivesaretodeterminetheeffectontheengineof severalhoursofexposuretolowtomoderateash concentrations,currentlyproposedat1and10 mg/m3andtoevaluatethecapabilityofenginehealth managementtechnologiesfordetectingtheseeffects. Anaturalvolcanicashwillbeusedthatis representativeofdistalashcloudsmany100sto ~1000kmfromavolcanicsourcei.e.,theash shouldbecomposedoffreshglassyparticlesafew tensofmicronsinsize.Theglassyashparticlesare expectedtosoftenandbecomelessviscouswhen exposedtothehightemperaturesofthecombustion chamber,thensticktothenozzleguidevanesofthe highpressureturbine.Numerousobservationsand measurementsoftheenginesperformanceand degradationwillbemadeduringthecourseofthe experiment,includingborescopeandteardown inspections.Whilenotintendedtobesufficientfor rigorouscertificationofengineperformancewhen ashisingested,theexperimentshouldprovideuseful informationtoaircraftmanufacturers,airline operators,andmilitaryandcivilregulatorsintheir effortstoevaluatetherangeofrisksthatashhazards posetoaviation. Hogg,Andrew Theeffectsofwindontheriseofvolcanicplumes andtheintrusionsofvolcanicash AndrewJ.Hogg1,MarkJ.Woodhouse1,JeremyC. Phillips1,R.SteveSparks1&ChrisG.Johnson1 1.CentreforEnvironmentalandGeophysicalFlows, DepartmentsofMathematicsandEarthScience, UniversityofBristol,BristolBS81TW,UnitedKingdom, email:a.j.hogg@bris.ac.uk Windhasasignificanteffectontheriseofvolcanic plumesandthesubsequentdispersalofvolcanicash throughtheatmosphereandwereporttwoadvances
Carn,Simon
AdvancesinUVremotesensingofvolcanicclouds andsatellitesensorsynergy Carn,S.A.1,K.Yang2,3,N.A.Krotkov3,A.J.Prata4 1.MichiganTechnologicalUniversity,Departmentof GeologicalandMiningEngineeringandSciences, Houghton,MI,USA2.UniversityofMaryland, DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicScience, CollegePark,MD,USA3.NASAGoddardSpaceFlight Center,AtmosphericChemistryandDynamics Laboratory,Greenbelt,MD,USA 4.NorwegianInstituteforAirResearch,Atmosphere andClimateDepartment,Kjeller,NORWAY Wereportrecentprogressinsatelliteremotesensing ofvolcaniccloudswiththeultraviolet(UV)Ozone MonitoringInstrument(OMI)onNASAsAura satellite,andsynergybetweenOMIandother instrumentsinNASAsATrainconstellation (includingtheAqua,CloudSat,CALIPSO,andAura satellites).UVretrievalsofvolcanicsulfurdioxide (SO2)providearobustandsensitivetoolfortracking volcanicclouds.Directdetectionofvolcanicashand columnashmassretrievalisalsopossibleusingtwo channelUVAerosolIndex(AI)techniques.OMIs hyperspectralmeasurementsallowfortheretrieval ofkeyvolcaniccloudattributessuchasSO2andash altitude.Anewapproachtoestimatevolcanicash columndensityusingOMIUVspectra(340360nm) isunderdevelopmenttocomplementestablished infrared(IR)techniques.Wepresentpreliminary resultsoftheUVashretrievalfortheMay2011 eruptionofGrimsvtn(Iceland)andcomparetheUV retrievalswithcoincidentIRSEVIRIashretrievals. WealsoshownewSO2andAImeasurements providedbytheUVOzoneMappingandProfilerSuite (OMPS)ontherecentlylaunchedNASANOAASuomi NPP(SNPP)satellite.AnalysisofmultisensorA Traindatacollectedduringrecenteruptions(e.g., EyjafjallajkullinApril2010)revealspossible evidenceforashaggregationand/orhydrometeor enhancedfalloutinthedistalplumeand demonstratesthecomplexitiesofvolcaniccloud evolutionafteremission.Suchobservationssuggest thatassimilationofsatellitedataintovolcaniccloud trajectorymodelsisrequiredforaccuratetrackingof volcanicashclouds.NASAvolcanicproductsfrom OMIarecurrentlydisseminatedthroughaNOAAweb site.ThegoalsofanewNASAapplicationsvolcanic hazardsprojectincludedemonstrationofthevalueof directreadout(DR)volcanicclouddatafromNASA EOSsatellites(Aura,Aqua)andSNPPreceivedat groundstationsinFinlandandAlaska.Givenanew emphasisonquantitativeashmassforecastsforair trafficmanagement(ATM)theprojectwillutilize satellitedataassimilationtechniquesintoaNASA globalGEOS5modeltodemonstrateimproved
36
inmodellingtheseflowprocesses.Firstweshowthat windincreasessignificantlytherateatwhichrising volcanicplumesmixwiththesurrounding atmosphere,whichimpliesthattheyreachaheightof neutralbuoyancyatwhichtheirdensitymatchesthe atmospherelowerthananequivalentplumerising throughawindfreeatmosphere.Riseheightisoften usedtodeterminethemassfluxofthevolcanic eruptionandsotheuseofexpressionsformulatedfor windfreesituationsmaysignificantlyunderpredict themassfluxwhentheplumeisstronglyaffectedby wind.Weshowthatforthe2010eruptionof Eyjafjallajkull(Iceland),theunderpredictionmay havebeenuptoafactorof100.Windalsoplaysa significantroleinthedispersalofashthroughthe atmosphere.Inthissettingweshowthatbuoyancy forces,causedbytheplumesdisturbanceofthe atmosphericstratification,mayplayanimportant roleinsubsequenttransport,leadingtoextensivethin layersofvolcanicashintheatmosphere. developedbyDr.FredPrata,appliedtothe geostationaryMeteosatimagerydata.The presentationwillshowsomeexamples,emphasizing themainstrengthsandweaknessesoftheproduct. EUMETSATcurrentlydevelopsadditionalvolcanic ashproductsbasedonmeasurementstakenbythe polarorbitingMetopsatellitessomepreliminary exampleswillalsobeshown.Finallyashortoutlook onthenewvolcanicashproductsprovidedbythe nextgenerationofMeteosatsatelliteswillbe provided.
Kreft,Peter
WeatherradarimageryofNewZealandvolcanic eruptions JohnCrouch1,PeterKreft1 1.MeteorologicalServiceofNewZealandLimited, Wellington,NewZealand VolcanoesinthecentralpartoftheNorthIslandof NewZealandarewithintherangeofthreeoftheC BandDopplerweatherradarsoperatedby MeteorologicalServiceofNewZealandLimited.Two oftheseradars,onemoreorlesswithinthevolcanic zoneandanothertotheeastofit,andbothdual polarisation,wereinstalledonlyrecently.Thetwo eruptionsofMountTongariroin2012werethefirst inNewZealandtobeobservedbyweatherradar. Radarimageryshowingtheheight,intensity,duration andtrackofthevolcanicashplumesfromoneorboth ofthe2012MountTongariroeruptionswillbe presented.Additionalinformationaboutthestructure oftheashplumecanbeextractedfromthedual polarisationfields. Comparisonbetweenradarreflectivityand measurementsofgrainsizedistributioninashfallout isbeingundertakentoestimatetheminimumash particlesizedetectedbyradarduringtheseeruptions. Someaspectsofoperationalpracticeat WellingtonVAAC PeterKreft1,MarcelRoux1 1.MeteorologicalServiceofNewZealandLimited, Wellington,NewZealand Aboutadecadeago,MetServiceimplementedanew careerstructureforoperationalmeteorologists. Togetherwiththeperformancemanagementsystem usedforallstaff,itprovidesbothoperational meteorologistsandtheirmanagerswithgoodquality informationaboutindividualperformance. Operationalmeteorologistsquicklybecomefamiliar withtheprocessofhavingtheirtechnicalcompetence examinedandreviewed. AeronauticalMeteorologicalForecasterCompetency AssessmentswerefirstundertakenatMeteorological ServiceofNewZealandLimitedin2012.The assessmentmethodhasbeenrefinedand,when appliedin2013,shouldyieldevenmoreinformation aboutthelevelofcompetenceofAviation Forecasters.InNewZealand,AMFCompetency Assessmentsarecomplementarytoothermethodsof measuringtheperformanceofoperational meteorologists.
Jansons,Emile
VAACServiceDelivery:aCompetencyBased Approach EmileJansons1 1.AustralianBureauofMeteorology,Darwin VolcanicAshAdvisoryCentre,Darwin,Australia. EffectiveVAACservicedeliveryreliesonhavingstaff thatarecompetentattheirjobs;however,while competencyiseasytorecognizeinapostevent setting,itcanbemuchhardertoensureinarealtime operationalenvironment.Giventhelevelof responsibilitythatVAACforecastersworkwith,and thepotentialforseriousconsequencetoarisefrom staffincompetence,ensuringthatstaffareadequately trainedisofthehighestpriority. VAACDarwinhasbeencertifiedaccordingtotheISO 9001:2008QualityManagementframeworksince 2007.Anextensivecompetencybasedtraining programiscompletedforallnewVAACstaff,whoare requiredtodemonstratecompetencyagainstasetof standardperformancecriteriabeforeworking withoutdirectsupervisionintheVAAC. Competencytrainingisdividedintosevenmodules coveringallactivitiesattheVAAC:VolcanicAsh Fundamentals;InformationManagement;Volcano Monitoring;AshDetection;DispersionModeling; ProductPreparation;andClientFocus.Competency trainingisdeliveredthoughablendofwrittentheory, casestudies,realtimesimulationsandonthejob dualling.Theinitialtrainingprocessoccursovera typicalperiodofthreemonthsparttime,withfollow uprefreshertrainingprovidedonayearlybasisto existingstaff.
Koenig,Marianne
EUMETSATVolcanicAshProducts MarianneKoenig1 1.EUMETSAT,EumetsatAllee1,D64295Darmstadt; marianne.koenig@eumetsat.int EUMETSAToperatesfourgeostationary(Meteosat) andtwopolarorbiting(Metop)satellites.Arealtime operationalvolcanicashproductiscurrently producedatEUMETSATbasedonanalgorithm
37
Kurihara,Yukio
VolcanicAshProductatMeteorologicalSatellite Center(MSC),JapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA) YukioKURIHARA1 1.JapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)/Meteorological SatelliteCenter(MSC),SystemEngineeringDivision/ DataProcessingDepartment,Tokyo,Japan NextJapanesemeteorologicalsatellites,Himawari 8/9,arebeinglaunchedin2014and2016, respectively.FortheHimawari8/9,MSCis developingtwovolcanicashproductswhichsupport VAACTokyo.Thisdevelopmentisbeingmadeunder collaborationwithEUMETSATandNOAA/NESDIS. Intheworkshop,currentprogressionstatusand futureplanofthedevelopmentwillbepresentedwith theoperationplanofHimawari8/9.
Chinaalsohasseveralactivevolcanoesontheregion closetotheeasterncoastofChina,whichispotential hazardtoNorthEastAsiaregion;however,thestudy regardingtheeffectsofvolcanoesinthisregionhas notbeencloselyinvestigated.Therefore,itisvery essentialtoestablishtheinternationalcollaboration andthecooperationintheresearchofvolcanicriskin NorthEastAsia.Thisworkwassupportedbythe researchgrantofChungbukNationalUniversityin 2013.
Lucas,Chris
VolcanicAshResearchatCAWCR ChrisLucas1,RodPotts1,MeelisZidikheri1 1.BureauofMeteorology,CentreforAustralian WeatherandClimateResearch,Melbourne,AUSTRALIA Aspartofitsongoingaviationweatherresearch,the CentreforAustralianWeatherandClimateResearch (CAWCR)isundertakingaprojecttoimprovethe informationsystemsandguidanceforoperationsat theDarwinVAAC. TheVolcanicAshWarningSystem(VAWS)was developedtostreamlinethepreparationofvolcanic ashadvisoryproductsandhasbeeninuseinthe DarwinVAACsince2003.Functionalimprovements tothesystemhavebeenimplementedfollowing experienceswith2010Merapiand2011Cordon Caulleeruptions. Onetopicofresearchistheimprovementofashcloud detection.Tothisend,theGEOCATsoftwarepackage hasbeenacquiredfromNOAA/NESDISforresearch andfutureusebytheBureau.Itsplanneduseisto producerealtimeautomatedalertsofashclouds togetherwithestimatesofashcloudheightandmass loadingfromvarioussatelliteremotesensing platforms.Aparticularfocusisonpreparationforthe operationalstartoftheJMAHimawari8in2015, whichwillgreatlyexpandtheremotesensing capabilityintheregion. Anotherareaofresearchistheimprovementinthe dispersionmodelguidance.Currentdispersion modellingtechniquesusedintheDarwinVAAConly producereliableforecastsoutto810hours.These problemsarebelievedtoliewithshortcomingsinthe initializationoftheashcloudalongwithapoor representationoftherelevantmicrophysical processes.Theuseofensembleforecaststoprovide probabilisticguidancetoforecasterswillalsobe investigated.
Lee,Sungsu
MitigatingVolcanicDisasterinKoreaand SurroundingRegion SungsuLee1 1.VDPRCChungbukNationalUniversity,Schoolof CivilEngineering,Cheongju,RepofKorea In2010,aseriesofvolcaniceruptionofMt. EyjafjallajokullinIcelandputaholdontheairtravel inthecontinentofEuropeandaffectsalloverthe world.Besidesthisdirectimpact,numerousindirect effectswerefoundfromtheaftermath.InJanuaryof 2011,anotherseriesoferuptionfromMt. Shinmoedake,Kyushu,JapanalsoalertedJapanand theworld.Withtheseseriesofevents,thereports fromChineseseismologistssince2002havedrawnan attentionandinitiateddiscussionsonthepossibility oftheeruptionofMt.Baekduwhichislocatedonthe borderofNorthKoreaandMachuria,China.Itwas foundthatMt.Baekduhashistoryoferuptionsmore than10timessince10thcenturyanditsstrongest onein10thcenturywasbelievedtobeabout1000 timesthatofMt.Eyjafjallajokull.UnlikeJapanthathas activevolcanoesmorethan100anderuptionsof varioussizeeveryyear,Koreahasthoughtof belongingtovolcanicriskfreezone;however,the globaleffectsfromtheeruptionofMt.Eyjafjallajokull andthepossibilityoftheeruptionofMt.Baekdu initiatedthescientificstudyonvolcanicriskand mitigationinKorea,whichleadstotheestablishment ofVolcanicDisasterPreparednessResearchCenter (VDPRC),Koreain2012.VDPRChasrecently initiatedresearchprogramsinvariousaspects including(1)developmentofvolcanicrisk assessmentand(2)mitigationmeasures,(3) developmentofresponseandpreparednesssystem basedonITand(4)internationalcollaboration program.Theeruptionsofvolcanoesmaybeeither effusiveorexplosive,andMt.Baekduislikely explosive,basedontheeruptionrecords.Thereisa strongpossibilitythatpyroclasticdensitycurrentand floodinlargerscalecandevastatetheregionofChina andNorthKoreaclosetoMt.Baekdu.Andthewaters over2milliontonsinthecalderaofMt.Baekduwould maketheexplosionfiercer,wouldgeneratevolcanic ashplumeoflargeranddenserscale.Onceithappens, theashcansweepthepartofKoreanpeninsulaand travelacrosstheEastSeatoJapanandtothePacific. OtherthanMr.BaekduandmanyvolcanoesinJapan,
Mastin,Larry
Promisesandpitfallsinusing1Dplumemodels toestimateeruptionrate Mastin,LarryG.1 1.U.S.GeologicalSurvey,DavidAJohnstonCascades VolcanoObservatory,Vancouver,Washington,USA (lgmastin@usgs.gov) Empiricalrelationshipsarecommonlyusedto estimatemasseruptionratefromplumeheightbut canunderestimateratesforsmalleruptionsinwindy conditions.1Dplumemodelscanincorporate currentatmosphericconditions,andgivepotentially moreaccurateestimates.Imodifythe1Dplume modelPlumeriafora3Dwindfield,andevaluatethe
38
influenceofwindforpost1948eruptionsinMastinet al.(2009,Table1).FormeteorologyIuseoutput fromtheNCARNCEP12.5degreemodeland radiosondedatawhereavailable.Simulationsused theeruptionratefrommeasureddepositmassand duration,andcomparedcalculatedheightswith observedheights.Whenobservedheightsare comparedwiththemodelpredictions,thestandard erroris3.4km;aslightimprovementovermodel predictionsthatignorewind(3.6km)andover estimatesoftheMastinetal.empiricalcurve,(4.0 km).Mosteruptionsanalyzedhaverates>106kg/s, wherewindislessofafactor.Thisandother1D modelsassumeacylindricalplume,whichis appropriateforzerowindand(approximately)for highwindconditions.Butunderlowtomoderate winds,whichproduceananvilcloud,theassumption isleastvalid,yieldingonlyarangeofheightsrather thanasinglevalue.Suchconditionsoccurinabout 90%oferuptionsinthedatabase. actuallyutilizecombinationsofsatellitesensorsto produceconsistent,highquality,results.Anoverview oftheNOAAvolcaniccloudremotesensingmethods willbegiven.
Prata,Fred
TheAirborneVolcanicObjectImagingDetector (AVOID)Anewinstrumentforprobingvolcanic clouds FredPrata1,2,DavidMoriano2andCiriloBernardo2 1NILU,Kjeller,Norway2NicarnicaAviationAS, Norway Theneedfornearrealtimeeffectiveobservationsof dispersingvolcaniccloudsofashandgaseshasbeen apparentformanyyears.Thisneedwasmadevery publicduringtheeruptionofEyjafjallajkullin IcelandinAprilandMay2010,whenmodelforecasts lackedvitalinformationonthepositionandquantity ofvolcanicashintheatmosphere.Buildingonmore than25yearsofglobalsatelliteobservationsof volcanicashcloudsthathaveshowntheusefulnessof infraredmeasurements,anewinfraredinstrument hasbeendesignedandtestedforuseonairborne platforms.TheAirborneVolcanicObjectImaging Detector(AVOID),isadualuncooledinfraredimaging camerasystemthatmountsonaircrafttoviewthe atmosphereandcloudsahead.Thesystemhasno movingpartsandcanimageatextremelyfastratesof 50Hzprovidingtwoimagesatdifferent,selectable wavelengthsbetween713m,coveringafieldof viewof20kmintheverticaland30kminthe horizontal.TestsofAVOIDatMtEtnaandStromboli onasmalllightweightaircraftshowedtheinstrument wascapableofdetectingSO2andmixedashclouds, whilefurtherflighttrialsonanAIRBUSA340over FranceandtheCanaryislandshasverifiedlowfalse detectionrates(~7%)anddetectionofaSaharan dustlayeroflowconcentration.Thesetestswillbe supplementedbyfurtherA340flighttrialsatan eruptingvolcanoorbyusinganartificiallygenerated ashclouddispersedintotheatmospherebyasecond aircraft. InthistalkIwilloutlinetheprinciplesbehindthe AVOIDtechnologyandillustratetheabilityofthe systemtoimageobjectsatdistancesexceeding100 km,imageatnight,operatesmoothlyat38,000ftat speedsof900kmhr1andclassifyatmospheric objects,includingwaterandicecloudsanddust layers.Plansforartificiallygeneratinganatmospheric volcanicashcloudwillalsobediscussed.
Mbolidi,Josepj
Informationpaper:Forabetterwatchof VolcanoesinASECNAarea MrMbolidipresentsashortpaperaboutASECNA, VolcanoesinASECNAarea,Recentactionsforbetter VolcanoWatch,FutureactionsandConclusions.
Pavolonis,Michael
DevelopmentofaSystemforQuantitatively AnalyzingVolcanicClouds MichaelPavolonis1,JustinSieglaff2,JohnCintineo2 1.NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration (NOAA),NESDIS/STAR,Madison,WI,USA 2.UniversityofWisconsin,CooperativeInstitutefor MeteorologicalSatelliteStudies,Madison,WI,USA Previouslydevelopedmethodsforextracting quantitativeinformationonvolcaniccloudsfrom satellitemeasurementshaveseveralimportant limitationsthatgreatlyreducetheiroperational significance.Nopublishedmethodiscapableof utilizingtheentirevolcaniccloudrelevantspace basedobservingsystemtodetectandcharacterizeall majortypesofvolcanicclouds(ashplumes/dispersed ashclouds,icerich/opaqueashclouds,andSO2 clouds)withtheexceptionalskillneededfor automatedalertingandforrealtimequantitative modelingapplications.Inaddition,acomprehensive monitoringsystemthatcombinessatellite observationswithgroundbasedobservations(when available)doesnotexist.Inanefforttocontributeto thedevelopmentofacomprehensivesystemfor quantitativelyanalyzingvolcaniccloudsinnearreal time,theNationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration(NOAA),incollaborationwiththe UniversityofWisconsin,hasdevelopednew,globally applicable,techniquesforautomaticallyidentifying volcaniccloudsinsatelliteimagerywithmuchgreater skillthaneverdemonstratedintheliterature.The NOAAalgorithmsuitealsocontainsproceduresfor automaticallyretrievingimportantvolcaniccloud propertiesandalertingforecasterswhenavolcanic cloudisdetected.TheNOAAmethodsareapplicable toanyvolcaniccloudrelevantsatellitesensorandcan
Scott,Brad
VolcanomonitoringinNZandlinkstoSWPacific Whatarethecurrentcapabilities BradScott,PeterLechner,PeterKreft 1WairakeiResearchCentre,GNSScience,NewZealand, 2CAAWellington,NewZealand,3NZMetService, Wellington,NewZealand Monitoringfornaturalhazardslikeearthquakes, volcaniceruptionsandlandslidesinNewZealandis undertakenbyGNSSciencethroughtheGeoNet project.ThisprojectisfundedbytheEarthquake Commission(EQC).Thevolcanicmonitoringfunction whichincludesseismographandGPSnetworks,
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webcamsandchemicalmeasurementsisintergratedas partofasingleNationalhazardsmonitoringsystemand workscooperativelywiththeWellingtonVAAC.Near realtimedataisobtainedandprocessedfromthe monitoringnetworksandmadeavailablefortheDuty Officers.ThroughtheNationalCivilDefencePlanthe volcanomonitoringfunctionofGNSScienceis responsibleforsettingtheVolcanicAlertLevelateach volcano.TheAlertlevelisthenusedbyresponding agencies,industries,utilityprovidersandthepublicto settheirresponse.TheNewZealandalertlevelsystemis basedonthecurrentstatusofthevolcano,andisnot necessarilypredictive.Theaviationindustryisoneof theserespondingindustriesandthroughrelationships withCAA(NZ)GNSalsosetstheAviationColourCodes. The1995and1996eruptionsofRuapehuvolcanowere themajordrivertheestablishedrelationshipsbetween GNS,MetServiceandCAA. GNSSciencehasinformalrelationshipswithsimilar geologicalbasedorganisationsintheSWPacific countries,especiallyVanuatuandissometimesableto quantifyinformationabouteruptionsinthosecountries. SimilarlytheMetServicehasrelationshipsandis sometimesabletoobtainpilotreportsandupdates fromthemeteorologicalorganisations.Considerable efforthasbeendirectedintotheSWPacificareabyNZ AidforcapabilitydevelopmentwithrespecttoNatural Hazards.Thishashadaallhazardsapproach,with tsunamiandvolcanobiasinselectedareas. infrastructuresuchasradarandlidartogethermean thattheoccurrenceandheightsofvolcanicplumes havecertainlybeenunderobserved.Tosomeextent thismaybeoffsetinthetropicsbylowerexposureto ashforagivenheighteruption,aseruptionswillmore frequentlybeabovecruisingaltitudes;volcanic plumescanbeverysignificantlyincreasedinheight andinicecontentthroughmoistconvectiveprocesses andmaycontainarelativelysmallproportionoffine ashintheumbrellacloudcomparedtoeruptionsina dryatmosphere. Evolvingandspreadingtechnologies,suchasradar andsatelliteremotesensing,andintegrationinto improvedmodelingtechniquesdoshowpromisefor theseevents.Forexample,postanalysisofthePCC eventoverAustraliaandNewZealandusingaNASA ledcombinedCalipsobasedalgorithmandmodeling techniqueidentifiesanunderforecastareaofash propagationandshowsthepotentialtosignificantly improveonwhattheVAACforecastersweredoingin alabourintensivemanner.However,arapid improvementinrealtimeintegrationofobservations oferuptionsanddiagnosesofeventsthatposemajor risksneartheeruptivesourceisneededfora reasonablemeasureofcomfortintheoperationsof theInternationalAirwaysVolcanoWatch.
Vujasinovi,Ruica
VisibleVolcanicAsh:Settingthelimitornot? Dipl.IngRuzicaVujasinovic1,Cpt.KlausSievers2 1.DLRInstituteofFlightGuidance,Departmentof PilotsAssistance,Braunschweig,Germany2. VereinigungCockpite.V.,Frankfurt,Germany Aftertheprolongeddisruptiontoaviationcausedby volcanicashinjectedinatmosphereviavolcano Eyjafjallajkull(Iceland)inAprilandMay2010 aviationsocietyestablishedthesystemofthree volcanicashconcentrationzones(low,mediumand high)basedoncorrelationbetweenconcentration levelandsafetyandallowedflightoperationsinareas oflowconcentration.Nevertheless,anunusable airspaceforoperatorsandmanufacturersisstill demarcatedbythepresenceofvisibleashandthe cleardefinitionofthattermisunfortunatelynotyet defined. Inordertocontributetodeterminingandusingofthe termvisibleashthevideothatshowsvisibilitylevel inthevicinityofvolcanoEyjafjallajkullafterthe eruptioninJune,2010isusedforthediscussion. Severaldifferentsnapshotsarepresentedand informationgeneratedoutofthemusedastheinput dataforamathematicalcalculationofthevisibility situationofthevolcanicashconcentration boundariesuponwhicharedefinedinternationally recognizedvolcanicashconcentrationzones. Intheend,apreliminaryvisibilitythresholdforflight operationsinareascontaminatedwithvolcanicashis proposedanddiscussed.
Tupper,Andrew
PuyehueCordnCaulle,Eyjafjallajkullandother distractionstheriskofoverconfidencein volcanicashcloudwarnings. Tupper,A.1&coauthors
1.BureauofMeteorology,Darwin,Australia (a.tupper@bom.gov.au)2.Various(refer presentation)
Theextraordinaryscientific,operational,and administrativeworkofthoseassociatedwiththe InternationalAirwaysVolcanoWatchduring2010 2013hasgivenusanopportunityforgreatprogress inthewarningsystem.Happily,therewerenomajor incidentsduringthistime.However,when consideringtherisksthatwereposedbythe significanteruptionsinthisperiod,suchas Eyjafjallajkull,PuyehueCordnCaulle,andMerapi, anunderstandingofthedegreeofgoodfortune associatedwiththeeventsisimportant. Mostvolcanoesaroundtheworldarestillnotwell observedinrealtime,seismicmonitoringisoften completelyabsent,andthereisnogoodsystemfor integratingthevarious(oftencontradictory)ground, airborne,andspacebasedobservationsarounda realtimeevent.ForeventslikeMerapiin2010,with heavycloudcoversignificantlyimpedingobservation, itseemsremarkablethatnomajorincidents occurred.Inthemoisttropicsinparticular,the frequencyofshowersandthunderstorms (particularlyaroundvolcanoesandothermountains), poorobservingconditionsontheground,satellite obscurationbylonglastingcirrusanvils,and challengesinfundingandmaintaininggroundbased
Watson,Matthew
Integratingnumericalweatherprediction(NWP) intovolcanicashretrievals ShonaMackie1andMatthewWatson1 1.UniversityofBristol,SchoolofEarthSciences,Bristol, UK
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Timelyandaccuratedetectionofvolcanicashin satellitedataisnecessaryfortheissuingofreliable warningstotheaviationindustry,forwhomash constitutesaveryrealdangerandagreatexpense.In ordertodetectashasreliablyaspossible,itis thereforenecessarytoconstrainnonash' observationsastightlyaspossible,andthiscanbe donethroughexploitationoftimeandspacespecific NumericalWeatherPrediction(NWP)data.Wehave developedaBayesiandetectionalgorithmthat incorporatesnumericalweatherprediction(NWP) thatcombinessimulatedclearskyobservationswith simulatednonashcloudandvolcanicashcloud observationstocalculateaposteriorprobabilityfor eachofthethreestatesispresented.Theprobabilistic resulthastheadvantagethatitinherentlycontains informationonthecertaintyoftheclassificationat eachpointwithinit,whichcanaidforecastersintheir interpretationoftheevidencethatformsthebasisof thewarningstheyareresponsibleforissuing. Warningstoaviationarebasedonretrievedash properties,whicharecomputationallyexpensiveto derive,andsoanyusefuldetectiontechniquemustbe relativelyfastandshouldbeapplicabletoproblemsof ashdetectionfromanyvolcano,atanytime.This methodachievesthis,andhastheaddedadvantageof being(inprinciple)genericenoughtoadaptto imageryfromarangeofsensors,potentiallygiving forecastersagenerictooltoapplytomuchofthe imagerytheyareaskedtoconsiderwhenissuing volcanicashwarnings. DuringtheeruptionsoftheEyjafjallajkull2010and Grimsvtn2011numerousresearchflightswere performedbyLEMTandEERIonIcelandandover NorthernGermanyformappingtheplumeand evaluatingthepredictedashconcentrationbythe VAACmodel.DuringtheeruptionoftheGrimsvtn volcano2011theresultsoftheaircraft measurementscontributedsignificantlytothe decisionoftheIcelandicairnavigationservice providerISAVIAofreopeningoftheinternational airportKeflavik,whichwasclosedbeforebecauseof highashconcentrationspredictedbytheLondon VAACmodel. Moreover,itcouldbedemonstratedduringactive phasesofthevolcanoesEtnaandSakurajimathatthe zenithviewUVDOASsystemisaveryusefultoolin ordertotracktheSO2plume,giveestimatesof volcanicSO2fluxesandtogivevisualizationofthe SO2plumes,whichcanbecomparedtosatellite images. Qualityassuranceissuesoftheinsitumeasurements, intercomparisontrialswithreferencemethodsand calibrationoftheinsitumeasurementsystemshave beenaddressedwithinthesestudiesaswell. Moreover,examplesofvisibilitywithintheashplume duringtheinplumeflightscouldbegained. TheDuesseldorfUniversityofAppliedSciencesison contractnowwiththeGermanWeatherService (DWD)forastandbyforemergencyresponseflights overGermanyandneighborcountriesincaseof anothervolcaniceruption.
Weber,Konradin
AirborneMeasurementsofVolcanicPlumeswith LightAircraftExamplesofResearchFlights duringEruptionsoftheVolcanoesEyjafjallajkull, Grimsvtn,EtnaandSakurajimaandQuality AssuranceAspects KonradinWeber1,JonasEliasson2,ThorgeirPalsson 3,AndreasVogel1,ChristianFischer1,TobiasPohl1, NarioYasuda4 1.DuesseldorfUniversityofAppliedSciences, LaboratoryforEnvironmentalMeasurement Techniques(LEMT),Duesseldorf,Germany.2. UniversityofIceland,EarthquakeEngineering ResearchInstitute(EERI),Selfoss,Iceland 3.ReykjavikUniversity,Reykjavik,Iceland4.University ofKyoto,DisasterPreventionResearchInstitute,Kyoto, Japan Duringrecenteruptionsofthevolcanoes Eyjafjallajkull,Grimsvtn,EtnaandSakurajimathe DuesseldorfUniversityofAppliedSciencesin cooperationwiththetwoUniversitiesonIceland performedalargenumberofresearchflightsinorder toinvestigatethevolcanicplumesusinglightand microlightaircraft,equippedwithopticalparticle countersandUltravioletDifferentialOptical AbsorptionSpectroscopy(UVDOAS) instrumentation.Thelightaircraftusedinthese studiesareequippedwithdurableandsturdypiston motors.Itcouldbeproven,thattheseaircraftarean excellentmeansforexploringvolcanicashplumesas theycanflyevenatelevatedashplume concentrations.
Weinzierl,Bernadett
Onthedifficultytodefineathresholdforvisible ash BernadettWeinzierl1,2,DanielSauer2,1,Andreas Minikin1,OliverReitebuch1,FlorianDahlktter1, Bernhard,Mayer2,ClaudiaEmde2,InaTegen3,Josef Gasteiger2,AndreasPetzold1,4,AndreasVeira1,Ulrich Kueppers5,andUlrichSchumann1 1DeutschesZentrumfrLuft undRaumfahrt(DLR), InstitutfrPhysikderAtmosphre,82234 Oberpfaffenhofen,Germany2Ludwig Maximilians UniversittMnchen(LMU),MeteorologischesInstitut, Theresienstrae37,80333Mnchen,Germany3Leibniz InstituteforTroposphericResearch(IfT),Physics Department,Permoserstrae15,04318Leipzig, Germany4nowatInstitutfrEnergie und KlimaforschungIEK 8:Troposphre, ForschungszentrumJlichGmbH,52425 Jlich,Germany5Ludwig Maximilians Universitt Mnchen,Geo undUmweltwissenschaften, Theresienstr.41,80333Mnchen,Germany TheeruptionoftheEyjafjallavolcano(Iceland)in April2010causedthemostextensiverestrictionsof theairspaceoverEuropesincetheendofWorldWar II.Morethan100,000flightswerecancelledbetween 14and20April2010affectingmorethan10million passengers.Tomaximizethenonrestrictedairspace inwhichaircraftcouldoperateunderalimited presenceofvolcanicash,aviationexpertsagreed onpreliminarythresholdvaluesforvolcanicash basedonempiricalassumptionsattheendofApril 2010.Inaddition,thesafetyconceptofavoiding visibleash,i.e.volcanicashthatcanbeseenbythe
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humaneye,wasrecommended.Howeversofar,no cleardefinitionofvisibleashandnorelation betweenthevisibilityofashandactualashmass concentrationsareavailable. Inourpresentation,weassessthequestiononthe visibilityofvolcanicashandotheraerosollayerssuch asmineraldustandtropicalbiomassburningaerosol inflight.Weinvestigateinsituandlidardataaswell asphotographstakenonboardtheDLRresearch aircraftFalconduringtheEyjafjallavolcaniceruption inApril/May2010andduringtheSaharanMineral DustExperiments(SAMUM)in2006and2008. Wecomplementthisanalysiswithnumerical modeling,usingidealizedradiativetransfer simulationswiththe3DMonteCarloradiative transfercodeMYSTICforavarietyofselectedviewing geometries. Inparticular,wewillfocusonthefollowing questions: Isthereavolcanicashcloud? Isitpossibletovisuallydetectvolcanicashand distinguishitfromotheraerosols? Whyisitsodifficulttodefinealowerthresholdfor visibleash? TheeffectofCirrusandCumuluscloudsinthefield ofview Ouranalysesofvisibleashdemonstratethatunder clearskyconditionsvolcanicashisvisiblealready atconcentrationsfarbelowwhatiscurrently consideredastheupperlimitforsafeoperationofan aircraftengine(2mgm3).However,thepresenceofa grayishbrownlayerintheatmospheredoes notunambiguouslyindicatethepresenceofvolcanic ash.Anuninformedobserverisunlikelytoidentify anagedvolcanicashlayerinhisfieldofviewwithout furtherinformation.Thepresenceofcloudswould makeitevenmorecomplicatedtovisuallydetect volcanicash.Inregionswithhighbackgroundaerosol loadingintheatmospherefromnaturalor anthropogenicinfluences,suchasseeninlargeparts ofAsia,thevisualdetectionofvolcanicashasan additionalcontaminantwillbesubstantiallymore difficult. Inordertobepreparedforfuturevolcaniceruption impactsonaviation,weneedreliabletoolsto predictandidentifyregionsfreeofdangerousash loads.Inthiscontext,westressthatthesource conditionsatexplosivelyeruptingvolcanoesare highlyunstablewhichmeansthatnoconstantinput parametersforvolcanicashconcentrationmodeling canbeassumed.Therefore,ratherthanusingthe termvisibleashwhichisdifficulttodefine,we recommendtorelyingonthetermdiscernibleash, i.e.volcanicashthatcanbedetectedbyagreedinsitu and/orremotesensingtechniques. Only~80of346potentialashproducingvolcanoesin SEAhavebeenmappedindetail.Weapproximatethe hazardattheremaining266bycomparingtheir morphologiestothewelldocumented80,anduse simplifiedprofilesofthe80asproxyhistoriesforthe 266.Weassumethatvolcanoeswithsimilar morphologieshavesimilareruptivebehavior. Wedefine5classesofvolcanoes,basedon morphologybutalsoconsideringdegassingbehavior. Theseare:(1)Lagunaclassvolcanoes,fieldsofmaars, cindercones,spattercones,andshields.Thetype exampleistheLagunaVolcanicField,Philippines (13.204,123.525).Thereare35Lagunaclass volcanoesinSEA(NLaguna=35).(2)Mayonclass volcanoes,openvent,frequentlyactive,steepsided stratocones.Mosthavesmallsummitcraters,spatter ramparts,smallpyroclasticfans(typically<3kmbut upto5kminradiallength)andlavaflows.Thetype exampleisMayonVolcano,Philippines(13.257, 123.685).NMayon=41.(3)Kelutclassaresemi pluggedcompositeconeswithdomecomplexes, pyroclasticfans,andcommonlywithdebrisavalanche depositsorcollapsescars.ThetypeexampleisKelut Volcano,Indonesia(7.933,112.308).NKelut=176. (4)Pinatuboclassarelargepluggedstratovolcanoes withextensive(tensofkm)pyroclasticfansandlarge summitcratersorcalderasupto5kmindiameter. ThetypeexampleisPinatuboVolcano,Philippines (15.133,120.350).NPinatubo=22.(5)TamboraToba classarecalderaswithlongaxes>5kmand surroundedbyextensiveignimbritesheets.Thetype examplesareTamboraVolcano,Indonesia(08.25, 118.00)andTobaCaldera,Indonesia:(02.583, 098.833).Silicicdomesthatmightproducelarge calderaformingeruptionsarealsoclassifiedas TamboraTobaclass.NTT=19. WeestimatetheprobabilitiesofeachVEIeruption fromeachmorphologicclassinthenextdecade, basedon(Poisson)theeruptivehistoryoftheclass. Theprobabilityis1(Pr=1)that1volcanoinevery classwillproduce1small(VEI12)eruption,thata MayonclassvolcanowillproduceaVEI3eruption, andthataKelutclassvolcanowillproduceaVEI4 eruption.AVEI5eruptionhasaPr=0.2ofoccurring fromaKelutclassanda0.1fromaPinatuboclass volcano.TheprobabilityofaVEI6eruptionis<0.01 fromallclassescombined.Ongoingworkwilladdress ashdispersionfromtheseeruptionsintoheavily traversedairtrafficcorridorsinSEA.
Witham,Claire
Thechallengesofmodellingashconcentrations involvedinaircraftencounters ClaireWitham1,HelenWebster1,MatthewHort1, AndrewJones1,DavidThomson1 1.MetOffice,Exeter,UK Sevenhistoricvolcaniceruptionswhichledtoaircraft encounterswithashcloudshavebeenstudied:MtSt Helens1980,Galunggung1982,Soputan1985, Redoubt1989,Pinatubo1991,Hekla2000and Manam2006.Atmosphericdispersionmodellingof theseincidentswasconductedusingtheNAMEmodel (NumericalAtmosphericdispersionModelling Environment)toestimateashconcentrationsatthe encounterlocations.Uncertaintiesintheeruption
Whelley,Patrick
VEIprobabilitiesinSoutheastAsia PatrickWhelley1&ChrisNewhall1 1.TheEarthObservatoryofSingapore,Nanyang TechnologicalUniversity,Singapore SoutheastAsia(SEA)hostsadenselypopulated airspaceandsomeofthemostactivevolcanicarcson theplanet.Thiscombinationhasresultedindozensof aircraftvolcanicashencountersinthepast50years.
42
sourcedetail(starttime,stoptimeanderuption height)andintheaircraftencounterlocationand flightpatharefoundtobemajorlimitationsinsome cases.Inaddition,errorsinthedrivingmeteorological data(whichisoftencoarseinresolutionforhistoric studies)andthelackofplumedynamics(forexample, representationofumbrellaclouds)indispersion modelsresultsinfurtheruncertaintiesinthe predictedashconcentrations.Theresultsand potentialimprovementstotheworkwillbe presented.However,theuncertaintyfactorsandthe additionalassumptionsrequiredinthemodellingwill preventsubstantialrefinementinmostcases.Many ofthesefactorsalsoremainaschallengesfor reconstructingrecentandfutureashcloud encounters.ThisworkwasdoneusingtheLondon VAACmodelsetupimplementedduringthe Eyjafjallajokull2010eruption.Developmentsinthe operationaluseofthemodelduringandafterthis timewillalsobediscussed.
Yeo,Richard
Waitingforthenexteruption RichardYeo1 1.IcelandicMeteorologicalOffice,Observationsdept., Reykjavik,Iceland Icelandsvolcanoeshaverecentlymadetheireffects onairtrafficalltooclear.Totryandminimisethe impactoffutureeruptions,considerableefforthasbe putintoimprovingthequantityandqualityofreal andnearrealtimedata.However,theeffectivenessof theseimprovementshaveyettobetestedbyareal eruption.Inthispresentationwewilldiscussthe IMOscurrentresources,statusandplansconcerning eruptionmonitoringandplumetracking
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Appendix 5
Terms of Reference for the WMO/IUGG Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) as adopted by the 64th Session of the WMO Executive Council 1. The Volcanic Ash (VA) Scientific Advisory Group (VASAG) established under the auspices of the WMO and IUGG, shall comprise geophysical and meteorological scientists. The VASAG shall confirm or elect two co-chairs at each meeting and will be supported by the WMO Secretariat. Requests for membership or observer status on the VASAG will be decided upon by the co-chairs in consultation with the Secretariat. The task of the VASAG shall be to address requests for specific advice or assistance from the ICAO IAVWOPSG and/or other relevant stakeholders. The VASAG shall use appropriate scientific groups, networks, contacts and other opportunities to gather and document scientific advice from the international science community. Responsibilities and delivery deadlines will be set and documented in line with IAVWOPSG requirements. The VASAG shall meet at the discretion of the co-chairs in consultation with the Secretariat (preferably at least every 18 months) but in any case in conjunction with the WMO International Scientific Workshop on Volcanic Ash (currently held every 3 years.). The VASAG shall provide a report to each IAVWOPSG meeting.
2. 3.
4.
5.
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6th INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON VOLCANIC ASH

Information sharing, on an operational basis, of ash detection information and

dispersion model forecasts Support website mirroring

Support relevant IAVWOPSG discussions

Aviation user satisfaction

Assimilation of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and VA data

VAAC forecasters able to clearly demonstrate competency.

Better technology transfer

Aviation user satisfaction

All users well defined and able to describe exact requirements

5 year vision 5 year vision

Aviation user satisfaction

Incorporating the 3rd IAVW Best Practice Seminar (ICAO/WMO/IATA)

TH 6 INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON VOLCANIC ASH 10 - 15 March 2013

Sunday 10th (Citeko)

Chair: Fred Prata

Chair: Marianne Guffanti

Chair: Andrew Tupper

Appendix 3 List of Participants

Dr. Surono Dinni Noerdiani Aldrian, Edvin

surono@vsi.esdm.go.id dinni_n@yahoo.com edvin.aldrian@bmkg.go.id

Drs. Herry Saroso,

herry_saroso@yahoo.com; herry_saroso@hotmail.com heront_sibero@yahoo.co.id ; bbmgw1@yahoo.com subard.bmg@gmail.com ; subardjo@bmkg.go.id asrori@bmkg.go.id ahmadmujahidin@yahoo.com

Heron Tarigan Drs. Subardjo, Dipl. Seis Asrori Ahmad Mujahiddin

sjr75@yahoo.co.id nugraha@vsi.esdm.go.id anjar@vsi.esdm.go.id oktory@vsi.esdm.go.id isyaktea@yahoo.com karno_64@yahoo.com jokosiswanto_batam@yahoo.com

Brachet, Nicolas Bursik Marcus

Guffanti, Marianne Hogg, Andrew

Kreft, Peter Kurihara, Yukio

Kurniawan, Edison Lechner, Peter

Pavolonis, Michael Prata, Fred

Surono, Dr. Tupper, Andrew Vujasinovic, Ruzica

surono@vsi.esdm.go.id a.tupper@bom.gov.au Ruzica.Vujasinovic@dlr.de

Yates, Tony Yeo, Richard Zehner, Claus

a.yates@bom.gov.au richard@vedur.is Claus.Zehner@esa.int

1.BureauofMeteorology,Darwin,Australia (a.tupper@bom.gov.au)2.Various(refer presentation)

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