WASHINGTON UPDATE

Senate Races To Watch

SOUTH DAKOTA: Popular twoterm Gov. Mike Rounds is the GOP favorite to pick up this seat, while Democrats are left with Rick Weiland, a two-time loser for the states at-large U.S. House seat. WEST VIRGINIA: Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is widely expected to win this seat against Obama-aligned Secretary of State Natalie Tennant, who already faces questions about the administrations war on coal. MONTANA: Gov. Brian Schweitzers decision to forego this open seat tips the scale toward Rep. Steve Daines (R), while Democrats face an intense primary between the states current and former lieutenant governors. ARKANSAS: Two-term Democrat Sen. Mark Pryor, unopposed just six years ago, faces a stiff challenge from rising GOP star Rep. Tom Cotton, whose background as a Harvard-trained lawyer turned Army infantry ofcer gives him an edge in this rapidly reddening state. ALASKA: Freshman Sen. Mark Begich (D) prevailed in 2008 by just 3,000 votes despite his opponents conviction on federal corruption charges. He will face a strong Republican opponent in Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell or former Alaska Attorney General Dan Sullivan. LOUISIANA: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) likely will face a one-month runoff election against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) a race that could decide control of the Senate. NORTH CAROLINA: New voting laws have narrowed Sen. Kay Hagans (D) margin for error as she prepares to face her likely opponent in state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R).

Third Times a Charm?

BY LIAM DONOVAN

fter back-to-back elections lled with big promises and eventual disappointment, Republican onlookers can be forgiven for any skepticism regarding their chances of winning the Senate majority in 2014. After making signicant gains in the Tea Party-fueled midterm wave, the GOP fell in 2012 by self-inicted wounds and

The path is clearly lit for Republicans to regain the Senate majority after years of unfullled hype.
robust Obama turnoutleaving Republicans two seats further from their prize. But for all of the wasted potential and missed opportunities of the past two cycles, Republicans will enjoy distinct structural advantages this coming November that were lacking in years past. In short, 2014 represents the partys best chance to seize control of the upper chamber. 2010 did not begin with high expectations for the GOP, and the path to 51 seats was always presumed to be a two-cycle proposition. The party was coming o of an epic beating, with a subsequent party switch

CONSTRUCTION EXECUTIVE | JANUARY 2014

yielding Democrats their rst libuster-proof supermajority in more than 30 years. Whats more, the targeted seats had been sustained by Democrats through the 2004 election in which Republicans netted four seats and achieved their high water mark in the Senate. Appointments related to Obamas election led to rough parity in terms of seats at stake: Just two Democrat-held seats were in states won by John McCain, while Republicans were forced to play defense in ve states won by Obama. However, the rise of the Tea Party, the controversial enactment of the Patient Protection and Aordable Care Act (PPACA) and the surprise election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts raised expectations considerablyto the extent that even a six-seat gain was lamented for the opportunities lost thanks to weak GOP nominees in key states. At rst glance, 2012 presented a much friendlier Senate map, with Democrat seats outnumbering their Republican counterparts two to one; however, the presence of Obama and his formidable turnout operation buoyed his partys candidates down the ticket. Despite the lopsided geography, Republicans were again put in the position of defending four seats in states won by Obama, while just ve of 21 Democratheld seats represented states won by McCain. Unfortunate gaes by GOP nominees in Missouri and Indiana played directly into

WASHINGTON UPDATE

the Obama campaign narrative, costing the party two seats while compounding the challenge for Republican candidates throughout the country. Following their setbacks in 2012, Republicans must gain six seats to win control of the Senate this fall. This time the structural advantage is clear: Democrats are playing defense in seven states won by Mitt Romney. President Obama lost six of these states in both of his campaigns, falling each time by double digits and receiving no more than 41 percent of the vote in any state. Among the six are three open seats left by retirements, while the other three feature incumbents sharing the

dubious honor of casting deciding votes for the PPACA. Meanwhile, just one Republican senator faces reelection in a blue state. Susan Collins (R-Maine) shared her states ballot with then-Sen. Obama in 2008, drawing 61 percent of the vote to the presidents 57 percent. Democrats have instead pinned their hopes of pickups on potentially messy GOP primaries in Kentucky and Georgia, but those races remain decidedly second tier opportunities in strong Romney states. After a brief bull run for Democrats amid the government shutdown, the disastrous rollout of www.healthcare.gov and the

federal marketplace has lent Republicans an edge in the generic congressional ballot. The PPACA remains more unpopular than ever nationwide, and polls show must-win demographic groups are souring on the president and his partys policies. November remains an eternity away in political terms, but the path is clearly lit for Republicans to regain the Senate majority after years of unfullled hype. Liam Donovan is director of legislative affairs for Associated Builders and Contractors. For more information, email donovan@abc.org or visit www.abc.org.

One-click messaging to your member of congress

Instant notications for grassroots and legislative alerts

Voting history on key ABC issues

Detailed contact information for your federal representatives

CONSTRUCTION EXECUTIVE | JANUARY 2014

ABC ACTION APP

The ABC Action app for iPhone and Android. Download it on your phone at abc.org/ABCaction
iPhone Android

10