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ASSUMPTIONS 1 Future results are non impacted by past performances Current seasons performance & confidence level are main factors Goals scored, Shots taken & Shots on Target to depict confidence, aggression & accuracy (~Conceded) Excepted Goals to follow Poisson PDF
2 Team Data Match Data
Team Arsenal
Data taken for Current Season Calculation of Attack & Defense Power for each club Simulation of Game Results for future matches as exemplified Collation of above results into Final Standing table
Chelsea 2.38 1.63 13.63 12.63 6.25 5.50 1.28 1.42 Avg. Values Team Arsenal Defense Power H A
Goals H A H
Shots A
Target Shots H A
Step 4
WORKING MODEL
Goals Scored Total Shots Shot on Target
For Home & Away
ARSENAL
L 4 3 5 6 3 9 10 10 12 9 14 20 19 GF 79 79 98 93 56 58 30 41 43 38 30 18 20 GA 30 32 27 42 25 33 32 32 50 30 41 42 44 GD 49 47 71 51 31 25 -2 9 -7 8 -11 -24 -24 PTS 90 89 87 84 81 71 62 58 56 51 46 32 31
6 Exptd.
% Probability of scoring**
0 15 13 1 28 26 2 27 27 3 17 19 4 8 10 5+ 5 6
&
1.9 2.1
&
14 Norwich
15 Cardiff 16 Fulham 17 West Ham 18 West Brom 19 Sunderland 20 Crystal Palace
38
38 38 38 38 38 38
8
6 8 4 4 6 5
6
12 4 16 16 10 10
24
20 26 18 18 22 23
22
14 21 15 19 16 13
64
47 60 37 40 50 45
-42
-33 -39 -22 -21 -34 -32
30
30 28 28 28 28 25
Weights used in the model: 4 LOGIC: A Goal Goals Scored 50% Total Shots 20%
Shot on Target
30%
37 21 42