112

118
132
129
121
135
148
148
136
119
104
118
115
126
141
135
125
149
170
170
158
133
114
140
145
150
178
163
172
178
199
199
184
162
146
166
171
180
193
181
183
218
230
242
209
191
172
194
196
196
236
235

229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306

MA3_airline
Forecasting

Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Period 8
Period 9
Period 10
Period 11
Period 12
Period 13
Period 14
Period 15
Period 16
Period 17
Period 18
Period 19
Period 20
Period 21
Period 22
Period 23
Period 24
Period 25
Period 26
Period 27
Period 28
Period 29
Period 30
Period 31
Period 32
Period 33
Period 34
Period 35
Period 36
Period 37
Period 38
Period 39
Period 40
Period 41
Period 42
Period 43
Period 44

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Demand
112
118
132
129
121
135
148
148
136
119
104
118
115
126
141
135
125
149
170
170
158
133
114
140
145
150
178
163
172
178
199
199
184
162
146
166
171
180
193
181
183
218
230
242

Period 45
Period 46
Period 47
Period 48
Period 49
Period 50
Period 51
Period 52
Period 53
Period 54
Period 55
Period 56
Period 57
Period 58
Period 59
Period 60
Period 61
Period 62
Period 63
Period 64
Period 65
Period 66
Period 67
Period 68
Period 69
Period 70
Period 71
Period 72
Period 73
Period 74
Period 75
Period 76
Period 77
Period 78
Period 79
Period 80
Period 81
Period 82
Period 83
Period 84
Period 85
Period 86
Period 87
Period 88
Period 89
Period 90
Period 91
Period 92
Period 93
Period 94
Period 95
Period 96

209
191
172
194
196
196
236
235
229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306

Value

Forecasting
135
130
125
120
115
110
105
100

Demand

2
Time

es
Forecasting

0.9
Error Analysis
Forecast Error

Demand
112
118
132
129
121
135
148
148
136
119
104
118
115
126
141
135
125
149
170
170
158
133
114
140
145
150
178
163
172
178
199
199
184
162
146
166
171
180
193
181
183
218

Absolute

Squared

Value

Alpha
Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Period 8
Period 9
Period 10
Period 11
Period 12
Period 13
Period 14
Period 15
Period 16
Period 17
Period 18
Period 19
Period 20
Period 21
Period 22
Period 23
Period 24
Period 25
Period 26
Period 27
Period 28
Period 29
Period 30
Period 31
Period 32
Period 33
Period 34
Period 35
Period 36
Period 37
Period 38
Period 39
Period 40
Period 41
Period 42

Exponential smoothing

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100

Period 43
Period 44
Period 45
Period 46
Period 47
Period 48
Period 49
Period 50
Period 51
Period 52
Period 53
Period 54
Period 55
Period 56
Period 57
Period 58
Period 59
Period 60
Period 61
Period 62
Period 63
Period 64
Period 65
Period 66
Period 67
Period 68
Period 69
Period 70
Period 71
Period 72
Period 73
Period 74
Period 75
Period 76
Period 77
Period 78
Period 79
Period 80
Period 81
Period 82
Period 83
Period 84
Period 85
Period 86
Period 87
Period 88
Period 89
Period 90
Period 91
Period 92
Period 93
Period 94

230
242
209
191
172
194
196
196
236
235
229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306

Period 95
Period 96

Next period

271
306

275.4

Not enough data to compute the standard error

Value

Forecasting
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Demand
Forecast

1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91
Time

ompute the standard error

Demand
Forecast

266
1
145.9
2
183.1
3
119.3
4
180.3
5
168.5
6
231.8
7
224.5
8
192.8
9
122.9
10
336.5
11
185.9
12
194.3
13
149.5
14
210.1
15
273.3
16
191.4
17
287
18
226
19
303.6
20
289.9
21
421.6
22
264.5
23
342.3
24
339.7
25
440.4
26
315.9
27
439.3
28
401.3
29
437.4
30
575.5
31
407.6
32
682
33
475.3
34
581.3
35
646.9
36
Sales
Time.pd-no

decomposition
Forecasting

Multiplicative decomposition

12 seasons

Data
Period
Period 1
Period 2
Period 3
Period 4
Period 5
Period 6
Period 7
Period 8
Period 9
Period 10
Period 11
Period 12
Period 13
Period 14
Period 15
Period 16
Period 17
Period 18
Period 19
Period 20
Period 21
Period 22
Period 23
Period 24
Period 25
Period 26
Period 27
Period 28
Period 29
Period 30
Period 31
Period 32
Period 33
Period 34
Period 35
Period 36

Demand (y) Time (x)

266
1
145.9
2
183.1
3
119.3
4
180.3
5
168.5
6
231.8
7
224.5
8
192.8
9
122.9
10
336.5
11
185.9
12
194.3
13
149.5
14
210.1
15
273.3
16
191.4
17
287
18
226
19
303.6
20
289.9
21
421.6
22
264.5
23
342.3
24
339.7
25
440.4
26
315.9
27
439.3
28
401.3
29
437.4
30
575.5
31
407.6
32
682
33
475.3
34
581.3
35
646.9
36

Average

196.4583
190.4833
190.7833
193.0333
205.8667
206.7917
216.6667
216.1833
222.775
230.8667
255.7583
249.7583
262.7917
274.9083
299.15
307.9667
321.8
339.2917
351.825
380.95
389.6167
422.2917
426.7667
453.1667
478.55

193.4708
190.6333
191.9083
199.45
206.3292
211.7292
216.425
219.4792
226.8208
243.3125
252.7583
256.275
268.85
287.0292
303.5583
314.8833
330.5458
345.5583
366.3875
385.2833
405.9542
424.5292
439.9667
465.8583

Average

Ratio

1.198113
1.177653
1.004646
0.616195
1.630889
0.878008
0.897771
0.681158
0.926282
1.123247
0.757245
1.119891
0.840617
1.057732
0.955006
1.338909
0.800192
0.990571
0.92716
1.143055
0.778167
1.034793
0.912115
0.938912

Seasonal
0.912466
0.912106
0.852224
1.07902
0.83468
1.029401
1.019365
1.117693
0.979826
0.977552
1.21554
0.93429
0.912466
0.912106
0.852224
1.07902
0.83468
1.029401
1.019365
1.117693
0.979826
0.977552
1.21554
0.93429
0.912466
0.912106
0.852224
1.07902
0.83468
1.029401
1.019365
1.117693
0.979826
0.977552
1.21554
0.93429
Intercept
Slope

Smoothed
291.5179
159.9594
214.8496
110.5633
216.011
163.6874
227.3964
200.8602
196.7696
125.7223
276.8316
198.9747
212.9396
163.9063
246.5314
253.2854
229.3095
278.8028
221.7066
271.631
295.8688
431.2816
217.5987
366.3746
372.288
482.8384
370.6771
407.1286
480.7832
424.9071
564.5669
364.6798
696.0419
486.2148
478.2235
692.3977

Unadjusted
110.0947
121.8879
133.6811
145.4743
157.2675
169.0607
180.8539
192.6471
204.4403
216.2335
228.0267
239.8199
251.6131
263.4063
275.1995
286.9927
298.7859
310.5791
322.3723
334.1655
345.9587
357.7519
369.5451
381.3383
393.1315
404.9247
416.7179
428.5111
440.3043
452.0975
463.8907
475.6839
487.4771
499.2703
511.0635
522.8567

98.30152
11.7932

Ratios
Season 1

Average

Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7

1.198113
0.89777059 0.681158 0.926282 1.123247 0.757245 1.119891 0.840617
0.92716045 1.143055 0.778167 1.034793 0.912115 0.938912
0.91246552 0.912106 0.852224 1.07902 0.83468 1.029401 1.019365

Season 8
1.177653
1.057732
1.117693

Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48

Unadjusted
534.649949
546.44315
558.236351
570.029551
581.822752
593.615953
605.409154
617.202355
628.995556
640.788757
652.581958
664.375159

Seasonal
0.912466
0.912106
0.852224
1.07902
0.83468
1.029401
1.019365
1.117693
0.979826
0.977552
1.21554
0.93429

Adjusted
487.8496
498.4143
475.7425
615.0734
485.6357
611.0691
617.1332
689.8426
616.3063
626.4041
793.2397
620.7188

Adjusted
100.4576
111.1748
113.9263
156.9697
131.268
174.0313
184.3562
215.3203
200.316
211.3794
277.1757
224.0613
229.5883
240.2546
234.5317
309.6709
249.3906
319.7106
328.6152
373.4944
338.9794
349.721
449.197
356.2805
358.719
369.3345
355.1371
462.3722
367.5131
465.3898
472.8742
531.6685
477.6428
488.0625
621.2184
488.4996
Total

Error analysis
Error
|Error|
165.5424 165.5424
34.72524 34.72524
69.17371 69.17371
-37.6697 37.66972
49.03198 49.03198
-5.53134 5.531342
47.44376 47.44376
9.179692 9.179692
-7.51597 7.515967
-88.4794 88.47942
59.32431 59.32431
-38.1613 38.16127
-35.2883 35.2883
-90.7546 90.75462
-24.4317 24.4317
-36.3709 36.37094
-57.9906 57.99058
-32.7106 32.71059
-102.615 102.6152
-69.8944 69.89442
-49.0794 49.0794
71.87904 71.87904
-184.697 184.697
-13.9805 13.98046
-19.019 19.01897
71.06553 71.06553
-39.2371 39.23712
-23.0722 23.07216
33.78686 33.78686
-27.9898 27.98984
102.6258 102.6258
-124.069 124.0685
204.3572 204.3572
-12.7625 12.76251
-39.9184 39.91838
158.4004 158.4004
-84.7027 2237.774
-2.35285 62.1604
Bias
MAD
SE

Error^2
27404.28
1205.842
4785.003
1419.008
2404.135
30.59574
2250.911
84.26674
56.48976
7828.608
3519.374
1456.283
1245.264
8236.4
596.908
1322.845
3362.908
1069.983
10529.88
4885.23
2408.788
5166.596
34112.99
195.4532
361.7214
5050.309
1539.551
532.3244
1141.552
783.4311
10532.06
15393
41761.85
162.8816
1593.477
25090.67
229520.9
6375.58
MSE
102.1409

Season 9 Season 10 Season 11 Season 12

1.004646 0.616195 1.630889 0.878008
0.955006 1.338909 0.800192 0.990571
0.979826 0.977552

1.21554

0.93429

55
60
68
63
65
61
54
52
46
42
37
30
37
44
55
53
58
50
48
45
41
34
30
24
29
34
44
54
57
51
51
53
46
46
46
39
41
53
55
62
55
56
57
59
58
55
49
47
57
68
84
81

78
74
64
74
71
63
55
51
57
63
75
85
80
77
68
72
68
70
53
50
53
58
73
72
68
63
64
68
60
54
41
35
43
44
44
36
44
50
55
61
50
46
39
33
37
40
49
44
45
38
36
34

28
29
27
29
28
29
36
32
36
34
31
36
39
40
39
33
44
46
57
59
64
59
51
50
48
51
45
48
52
58
63
61
59
58
52
48
53
55
42
38
48
55
67
60
65
65
63
61
54
52
51
47

55
59
89
84
75
66
57
52
60
54
48
49
53
59
73
72
62
58
55
56
52
52
43
37
43
55
68
68
64
65
57
59
54
57
43
42
52
51
58
60
61
58
62
61
49
51
47
40
45
50
58
52

50
50
46
46
38
37
34
29
30
40
46
46
47
47
43
46
37
41
39
36
48
55
56
53
52
53
52
56
51
48
42
42
44
50
60
66
58
59
55
57
57
56
53
51
45
58
74
65
65
55
52
59

54
57
45
40
47
47
60
58
63
64
64
63
55
54
44