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I EQUITIES I

D WAL SPEC AL
12th November 2012

BSE BANKEX
* BSE BANKEX (12,969.41, 13,458.36, 12,899.87, 13,186.94, +239.650) 0.0% 17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 23.6% 12000

38.2%

11000 10000

50.0%

C
61.8%

9000 8000

7000

6000

5000

4000 100.0%

MACD (451.066)

1500 1000 500 0 -500

2006

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2014

Above is the chart of BSE BANKEX BSE BANKEX had taken off its 2008 swing high in November 2010 which confirmed that it is out of the Intermediate Bear market and it has started its Primary Bull market. The rise from the lows of 2009 i.e. 3598 till November 2010 is considered as wave 1 i.e. the first leg of the Primary Bull market. Following that Market again drifted on the way down which retraced 50% of the entire rise in wave 1. This correction/intermediate Bear market is wave 2 which is then followed by the second leg up i.e. wave 3 which is the longest of all which means that the rally will be far more than that of 2009. Though, one always has to trade cautiously as there is a condition attached to it that till 11250 levels hold the uptrend is valid but below that the assumption goes wrong which would then mean that the intermediate bottom is yet not in place. The behavior of the momentum indictor MACD on the monthly chart is quite interesting and accurate. The moment it comes into buy or sell mode it defines either the Bull Market or Bear Market. The above chart clearly depicts that it has come into buy mode again and it has also reversed from the zero reference line which supports our above assumption of primary Bull market. Hence, the risk-reward is quite favorable for the Bulls

Top Picks from Banking sector: 1) 2) 3) 4) Bank of India Federal Bank DCB Union Bank

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D WAL SPEC AL
BSE Metal Index
* BSE METAL INDEX (10,149.02, 10,380.54, 10,105.01, 10,134.40, -14.7100) 20000 0.0%

II

23.6%

15000

I
38.2% 50.0%

IV

III
61.8%

10000

5000

100.0%

MACD (-974.496)

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 2012 2013 2014

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Above is the chart of BSE Metal Index Bse Metal has retraced exactly 61.8% of its rise from 2009 lows until April 2010. The rise from 2009 clearly appears to be an impulse wave i.e. a five wave rise. The fall on the monthly charts can be counted as an A-B-C pullback in which wave C was extended as it unfolded in five waves down. A positive quarterly close in December 2011 confirmed that the correction is over thus increasing the probability of next impulse wave up. On the contrary it can happen so that the A-B-C fall was just a larger wave W down, well in that case too there is a high probability that the pullback retraces 13000 levels which would then become a case of an X wave bounce in a regular flat pattern. So, the risk-reward is very favorable for the bulls from this point of time. The stop loss/reversal point on the downside is pegged at 9100 levels.

Top Picks from Metals sector: 1) Sesa Goa 2) Tata Steel 3) Monnet Ispat

WAY2WEALTH Securities Pvt. Ltd., 3rd Floor, Tower B, Hincon House, 247 Park, LBS Road, Vikhroli (West) Mumbai - 400083. Tel +91 22 6146 2900 email: research@way2weal th.com website: www.way2wealth.com

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D WAL SPEC AL
CNX Infra
* CNX INFRA (2,491.15, 2,558.60, 2,487.80, 2,507.10, +21.2500) 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500

2000

1500

1000

MACD (-184.856)

500

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Above is the chart of CNX Infra This is one of the best chart which clearly depicts that the bulls have an upper hand from hereon. One can see the CNX Infra has formed a double bottom near 2000 levels (approximate value) or it is still forming a right angled triangular pattern which is quite likely to break on the upside. The third alternate is that the rise from December 2011 to February 2012 was an impulse wave, so most of the alternates are pointing towards northward direction. Since, it in a bottoming process we are not providing an upside limit as its a high beta sector the target can be to astronomical levels if returns calculated on Y-o-Y basis. On downside one should keep an eye on 2000 levels which is the pivot as if that gets broken the selling will be sharp.

Top Picks from Infrastructure sector: 1) JP Associate 2) IRB Infra 3) IVRCL Infra

WAY2WEALTH Securities Pvt. Ltd., 3rd Floor, Tower B, Hincon House, 247 Park, LBS Road, Vikhroli (West) Mumbai - 400083. Tel +91 22 6146 2900 email: research@way2weal th.com website: www.way2wealth.com

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D WAL SPEC AL
BSE Healthcare Index
* BSE HEALTHCARE (7,727.74, 7,898.31, 7,698.41, 7,752.75, +37.7700), Parabolic SAR (7,315.20) 9000 8500

8000

7500

7000

6500

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5000

4500 MACD (242.933) 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 M J J A S O N D 2013 M A

2011

2012

Above is the chart of BSE Healthcare Index This Index has been an out performer since couple of years and the medium term trend still looks positive. It has been rising in an upward sloping parallel channel both in the long term as well as in the medium term. In the short term it has neared the uptrend line of the channel so there can be some consolidation or correction seen, so entering the pharma stock on dips will be a prudent strategy. On the upside, it can test levels up to 8500 in the medium term, whereas the support exist at 7200 levels i.e. the lower end of the channel which can be used as an entry point. The momentum indicator MACD is in buy mode at all degrees i.e. daily, weekly and monthly which is also a positive sign for the bulls.

Top Picks from Pharma and Healthcare sector: 1) Biocon 2) Fortis 3) Dr.Reddy

WAY2WEALTH Securities Pvt. Ltd., 3rd Floor, Tower B, Hincon House, 247 Park, LBS Road, Vikhroli (West) Mumbai - 400083. Tel +91 22 6146 2900 email: research@way2weal th.com website: www.way2wealth.com

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D WAL SPEC AL
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