Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 5

Commodity Exchange Traded Products

First Quarter 2013


CTF
Commentary
Nuveen Long/Short Commodity Total Return Fund (CTF)
Gresham Investment Management LLC, acting through its Near Term Active division,
is the commodity subadvisor to the Fund and is an afiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc. 1
Review of the Commodity Market for the Quarter
At the outset of 2013, Gresham was looking forward to a
favorable environment for the investment strategy of the
CTF portfolio. Progress in the U.S. and global economy
was encouraging, in that auto sales, industrial production
and housing all were picking up, and the United States
appeared to be moving from a jobless recovery to one with
signifcant employment growth. By the end of the frst
quarter, however, industrial activity had faltered, job growth
stalled, and while housing was still advancing, its pace
was hardly enough to sustain overall U.S. growth, in our
opinion. In Europe, where the European Unions capacity
to economically disappoint seemed to have been exhausted,
Germany reported an unusual industrial slowdown during
the frst quarter of 2013, and Cyprus was added to the book
of banking crises.
Without a strong economic signal of growing demand, the
price movements of certain commodities, like corn and
soybeans in agriculture and Brent crude oil and heating oil
in energy, did not establish discernible trends during the
frst quarter of 2013. Commodities are immediate assets,
priced in the here-and-now; signifcant moves in prices
require dynamic conditions of supply and demand. The
frst quarter of 2013, however, did not see these conditions
emerge: supplies of grains, most energy commodities,
industrial metals, and most foods and fbers were generous,
but the slow pace of global economic growth resulted in
tepid demand. For most commodities, the result was small
pushes back and forth on their prices, lacking enough
force to establish trends upward or downward for CTFs
investment strategy to build upon.
Overall Fund Performance Relative to its Benchmark
The Morningstar

Long/Short Commodity Index


SM
(the
Index) and CTF use as their primary signal the 12-month
moving average of each commodity futures contract
to determine whether it will be held long or short. When
an individual commodity futures contract is greater (less)
than its 12-month moving average, then the commodity will
generally be held long (short). Energy commodities will not
be held short; rather, a cash position will be taken instead.
The Fund was down -2.77% at NAV in the frst quarter
of 2013, underperforming the Index by 5.52%. The Fund
underperformed the Index in all four commodities groups
-- energy, agriculturals, metals and livestock. The Funds
strategy is designed to take advantage of the volatility
inherent in commodities prices, and therefore can thrive
in a boom market and perform equally well in a crisis.
However, in the lukewarm economy of 2012 and early 2013,
the markets have presented volatility, but without sufcient
direction and trend to result in price momentum for the
Review of the Commodity Market
for the Quarter
Share Repurchase Program:
On March 14, 2013, CTF adopted an open-market share
repurchase program. CTF may repurchase an aggregate of
up to 10% its outstanding common shares (approximately
1,800,000 shares) in open-market transactions at fund
managements discretion. In the month of April 2013, CTF
repurchased 9,500 common shares at a weighted average
price of $18.76 per share.
Commodity Exchange Traded Products
1Q 2013 Commentary
Nuveen Long/Short Commodity Total Return Fund (CTF)
Gresham Investment Management LLC, acting through its Near Term Active division,
is the commodity subadvisor to the Fund and is an afiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc. 2
Funds strategy to capture. It is the Funds goal to end each
monthly period with positions similar to the Index, although
acquired at better prices through active management. To
establish an edge over the Index, the Fund incurs a higher
turnover: if trading decisions are correct the Fund gains
its edge, but if they are incorrect, the portfolio whipsaws
-- trading to no positive purpose, and giving up spreads and
commissions.
The Fund has the fexibility to sell both put and call options
on a single commodity, should such commodity switch
from a long position to a short position during the life
of a particular option. In this case, the Fund can collect
additional premiums. During the reporting period, the Fund
was able to sell both puts and calls on several commodities,
including lean hogs, gold, silver, cotton, corn, soybeans
and soybean meal, which beneftted the Fund. The Funds
call option writing activity generated cash fow to help
pay distributions, and served to limit the volatility of the
portfolio.
Performance Review
Individual Commodity Group Performance Relative to
the Index
Energy Sector
In energy, the Index returned 1.49% during the frst
quarter of 2013 versus -1.42% for the Fund. Primary areas
of underperformance for CTF included WTI (West Texas
Intermediate) crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas. The
Index was led by RBOB (Reformulated Blendstock for
Oxygenated Blending) unleaded gasoline, in which it held
a long position for the entire quarter and earned an 8.10%
gain; CTFs position was similar to the Index. The natural
gas market rose steadily through the quarter; while the
Fund switched positions several times, the Index was fat
for most of the period. In the crude oil markets, long prices
of both Brent and WTI made small gains: Brent crude oil
rose on increased allocations during the January rebalance
of leading benchmarks, while WTI crude oil was boosted
by the slow-but-steady pace of economic growth in the U.S.
The Index earned 0% in WTI crude oil due to a fat position.
The Index earned 2.12% on a long position in Brent crude
throughout the quarter; CTF performed similarly. Heating
oil followed a similar pattern to WTI crude oil; the Fund
moved between fat and long, while the Index was long for
most of the quarter.
Agriculturals Sector
Most agricultural commodities were down in the frst
quarter of 2013. Wheat started the quarter strong, on fears of
a reduced U.S. crop due to the persistent damage from last
years drought. However, rain and snow across the Wheat
Belt in February pointed to greater supplies and lower
prices. On the last day of the quarter, grains sold of sharply
on two infuential USDA reports -- the frst showing larger-
than-expected U.S. inventories in March, and a second
forecasting greater supplies of corn, soybeans and wheat for
the coming U.S. crop year. The Index established an early
short position in wheat and gained 16.61% while CTF held a
long position until the middle of the quarter, when it moved
to short; consequently, the Fund underperformed the Index.
The Fund, which underperformed the Index in soybeans as
well, moved between long and short positions several times
during the quarter, while the Index was short soybeans only
in February, avoiding long exposure during a volatile month.
In cotton, markets were optimistic about large cotton export
sales to China, as well as a smaller U.S. crop, as growers
favored the higher prices of corn and soybeans. Compared
to a large gain in outright cotton prices, the Index lost
3.00%, having carried a short position until mid-quarter.
CTF outperformed the Index in cotton, holding a long
position for a greater proportion of the period. Overall in
agriculturals, the Index managed a 2.85% gain while the
Fund returned -2.41%.
Metals Sector
The metals group gained 6.27% in the Index during the
quarter. By contrast, the Funds metals holdings resulted in
losses of -6.77% during the frst quarter of 2013. The Fund
underperformed the Index in gold, silver, and copper. Both
silver and gold have been in downtrends since September
2012: a more stable performance by the global world
economy has reduced the likelihood of additional easing
moves by central banks, which has apparently reduced
investors desire for safe investment havens such as precious
metals. The silver and gold markets were stable in January
2013, but trended downward steadily in February and March.
The Fund changed its gold position several times through
January and February, while the Index went short early in
the quarter. In silver, both the Fund and the Index changed
positions several times during the quarter, but over diferent
intervals, and the Fund underperformed. In copper, demand
was down due to a weak global manufacturing environment.
Commodity Exchange Traded Products
1Q 2013 Commentary
Nuveen Long/Short Commodity Total Return Fund (CTF)
Gresham Investment Management LLC, acting through its Near Term Active division,
is the commodity subadvisor to the Fund and is an afiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc. 3
Livestock Sector
In livestock, markets were hurt by the lingering efects of
the summer 2012 U.S. drought: high grain prices have led
ranchers to bring their herds to market early, increasing
available supplies. Additionally, in March, China placed bans
on feed additives in pork imports -- possibly constraining
U.S. export sales, which take up about one quarter of total
U.S. production. The Index showed a 5.15% gain in the
quarter while CTFs positions gained 3.69%. The Fund
underperformed the Index in both live cattle and lean hogs.
Both markets trended steadily down for the quarter, and
while both the Fund and the Index started long and moved
to a short position for most of the quarter, a later long move
by the Fund led to underperformance in lean hogs. In live
cattle, the Fund held a long position for just two days in the
quarter, but underperformed the Index nonetheless, which
was short the entire period.
Distribution Information (as of 3/31/2013)
Year-to-Date Total Distributions Paid Per Share
1
$.4560
Inception-to-Date Total Distributions Paid Per Share
1
$.7750
Current Distribution (Monthly) $.1550
Current Distribution Rate on Market Price 8.96%
Current Distribution Rate on NAV 9.02%
1
Includes the distribution of $0.1550 paid on April 1,2013
2
Distribution rates are set at a level that approximates past and projected
long-term total returns of the commodity asset class, but actual future
returns will likely difer. Because the Fund is taxed as a partnership, its
monthly distributions are not considered income or gains but simply
a cash fow distribution that is not dependent on the Funds actual
income earned or realized gains. As market conditions and portfolio
performance change, the Funds distribution rates and distribution
policy may also change.
%
%
%
%
%
%
Since Inception YTD
Nuveea Aaaua||te Jeta| keturas |z |CJIj
Inception Date 00/00/00
I.II
.K1
I.II
I.5K
I.I1
I.5+
Morningstar Long/
Short Commodity Index
SM
Market Value NAV
Annualized Total Returns (as of 3/31/2013)
Inception Date 10/25/2012
Sources: Nuveen and Factset as of March 31, 2013.
The table above presents selected total returns for the Fund and the
Morningstar

Long/Short Commodity Index


SM
; the Funds benchmark,
as of March 31, 2013. The Funds total returns are presented net of
fees and expenses and assume the reinvestment of distributions.
The Indexs total returns are presented gross of fees and expenses
and payment of such fees and expenses would otherwise lower the
Indexs performance. Returns shown represent past performance
(price changes, whether or not realized, plus any distributions or cash
received), which is no guarantee of future performance.
Gresham Investment Management LLC, acting through its Near Term Active division, is the
commodity subadvisor to the Fund and is an afliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc.
Commodity Exchange Traded Product
First Quarter 2013
Nuveen Long/Short Commodity Total Return Fund (CTF)
Signals and Weightings
The following exhibits provide a snapshot of the signals,
sectors and individual commodity futures positions of
CTF and its benchmark, the Morningstar

Long/Short
Commodity Index
SM
during the frst quarter of 2013. The
most notable areas of departure between CTF and the
Index included:
CTF had an overall lower fat allocation to energy
commodities than the Index as seen by month end
observations during the quarter.
Individual Commodity Positions (as of 3/31/2013)
CTF Index
1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13 1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13
Energy
WTI Crude Oil L F L F F F
Brent Crude Oil L L L L L L
Gas-Oil-Petroleum L L L L L L
Gasoline Blendstock L L L L L L
Heating Oil #2/Fuel Oil L L L L L L
Natural Gas Henry Hub
1
L L F F L
Agriculture
Corn L L L L L L
Wheat/No. 2 Hard Winter L S S S S S
Soybeans
2
L L S L L
Soybean Meal L L S L L L
Soybean Oil S S S S S S
Cofee C/Colombian S S S S S S
Sugar S S S S S S
Cotton L L L S L L
Metals
Gold S S S S S S
Silver L S S S L S
Copper L S S L L S
Livestock
Live Cattle S S S S S S
Lean Hogs L S S S S S
Long L Short S Flat F No Position N
Long
Short Short
Flat
I1.e1
J1.5I
e.I5
51.5
1J.J
J5.12
e5.IJ
1+.21
5.ee
1J.e2
1.I1
+e.22
1I.12
Je.+e
5.1J
25.2
Je.+2
CTF Index
1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13 1/31/13 2/28/13 3/31/13
+1.1
J5.J
J1.e
Je.1
+.5 L|vestec|
Heta|s
Agr|cu|ture
Laerg
+.J
1.I1
J.e5
J.52
Je.+1
+.eI
CJI Iaex
Leag
S|ert S|ert
I|at
Jctal IK.KI I9.II
Jctal I.1K I.11
Jctal 1.K5 1.I
Jctal 19.9 19.I1 Jctal 19.9 19.I1
Aggregate Long/Short/Flat Signals (as of 3/31/2013)
Commodity Sector Signals and Weightings
(as of 3/31/2013)
As of March 31, 2013, CTF had 0% fat energy position com-
pared to nearly a 10% fat position for the Index.
The month end observations during the quarter show that
CTF had an overall higher long position than that of the Index.
The individual commodity positions that varied the most
between CTF and the Index included WTI crude oil, natural
gas, soybeans, silver and copper.
F/L
L/S
1
On 2/28/13, CTFs portfolio held both fat and long positions in natural
gas, with fat being the dominant position at month end.
2
On 3/31/13, CTFs portfolio held both long and short positions in
soybeans, with long being the dominant position at month end.
Commodity Exchange Traded Products
1Q 2013 Commentary
Nuveen Long/Short Commodity Total Return Fund (CTF)
Gresham Investment Management LLC, acting through its Near Term Active division,
is the commodity subadvisor to the Fund and is an afiliate of Nuveen Investments, Inc. 5
Important Risks Considerations
The Funds shares are not guaranteed or endorsed by any bank or other
insured depository institution, and are not federally insured by the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Shares of the Fund are subject to
investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Fund invests primarily in commodity futures contracts and options
on commodity futures contracts, which have a high degree of price vari-
ability and are subject to rapid and substantial price changes. The Fund
could incur signifcant losses on its commodity investments. The Fund
is not a mutual fund, closed-end fund, or any other type of investment
company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as
amended, and is not subject to regulation thereunder.
There can be no assurance that the Funds options strategy will be
successful. The Fund uses options on commodity futures contracts to
enhance its risk-adjusted total returns. The Funds use of options, how-
ever, may not provide any, or only partial, protection for modest market
declines.
The return performance of the Funds commodity futures contracts may
not parallel the performance of the commodities or indices that serve as
the basis for the options it buys or sells; this basis risk may reduce the
Funds overall returns.
The statements contained herein are based solely upon the opinions of
the Near Term Active division of Gresham Investment Management LLC
and its investment management team. Individuals should consult with
their fnancial advisors when making investment decisions.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not a
solicitation to buy or sell shares of the Fund. The Fund does not presently
ofer any new shares for sale; existing shares trade on the NYSE MKT. For
a more complete description of risks, see the Funds webpage at:
www.nuveen.com/CommodityInvestments
Positioning and Outlook
For the frst half of 2013, Gresham expects the commod-
ity markets to be driven by fundamental factors to a greater
extent than in the past several years. The global economy con-
tinues to improve: conditions are still weak in Europe, but in
the United States, both the industrial and service sectors are
showing persistent gains, and forecasts indicate the Chinese
economy should grow at approximately 8% for this year and
next. As a result, central banks may have fewer motivations to
implement rescue measures through monetary policy action,
which may reduce investors fears of currency depreciation
and limit the price moves of precious and industrial metals.
With the world economy growing only slowly and many
commodities in ample supply, we believe prices will be less
prone to sudden surges in demand in 2013. Large infuences
could still originate, however, on the supply side. In the U.S.
energy industry, the production boom in shale felds has
generated more oil and gas than the pipeline and storage
systems can handle, holding down prices. As for agriculture,
early forecasts for U.S. production are favorable, and South
American farmers are expected to grow record crops of corn
and soybeans, suggesting prices may be well below last years
highs. Additionally, last years drought may cause lingering
efects in the livestock markets, as ranchers are starting the
year with smaller herds. We believe this points to lower sup-
plies and elevated prices in 2013. Looking back to the start of
2012, it becomes evident that the biggest movers of commodi-
ties prices -- severe and harmful weather in the United States
and favorable conditions in other growing regions -- were
unknown at the beginning of the year. The surprises, both
positive and negative, that come from weather and global
politics are the factors that move the markets, and create
opportunities for commodities investors.

Вам также может понравиться