Natural Gas and Climate Change

Eric D.
Larson, PhD
Natural Gas
& Climate Change
Natural Gas
& Climate Change
Eric D. Larson, PhD

Climate Central surveys ano conoucts sclentlc
research on climate change and informs the public of
key nolngs. Our sclentlsts publlsb ano our journallsts
report on climate science, energy, sea level rise,
wllores, orougbt, ano relateo toplcs. Cllmate Central
ls not an aovocacy organlzatlon. We oo not lobby, ano
we oo not support any speclc leglslatlon, pollcy or
blll. Cllmate Central ls a qualleo 501(c)3 ta-eempt
organlzatlon.
Climate Central sclentlsts publlsb peer-revleweo
research on climate science; energy; impacts such
as sea level rlse, cllmate attrlbutlon ano more. Our
work ls not conneo to sclentlc journals. We
investigate and synthesize weather and climate data
ano sclence to equlp local communltles ano meola
wltb tbe tools tbey neeo.
May 2013
Princeton
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Princeton, NJ 08542
Phone: +1 609 924-3800
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www.climatecentral.org
Lrlc D. Larson, PbD
Senior Scientist
Dr. Larson leaos energy-relateo researcb at Cllmate
Central while also being part of the research faculty
at Prlnceton Unlverslty ln tbe Lnergy Systems Analysls
Group ot tbe Prlnceton Lnvlronmental |nstltute. Hls
research interests include engineering, economic, and
pollcy-relateo assessments ot aovanceo clean-energy
tecbnologles ano systems. He bas publlsbeo over 80
peer-revleweo artlcles ano more tban 200 papers ln
total. He bas a Pb.D. ln Mecbanlcal Lnglneerlng trom
tbe Unlverslty ot Mlnnesota.
Report

Author
Contents
Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Report in Brief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1. |ntroouctlon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
2. LPA Lstlmates ot GHG Lmlsslons trom tbe Natural Gas Supply System . . . . 21
2.1 Gas Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2 Gas Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.3 Gas Transmission and Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.4 Gas Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
3. Otber Lstlmates ot GHG Lmlsslons trom tbe Natural Gas Supply System. . 28
3.1 Leakage During Gas Production, Processing, and Transmission.. . . . . . . . . . . 29
3.2 Leakage from Gas Distribution Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4. Natural Gas vs. Coal ln Llectrlclty Generatlon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
5. Reterences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Natural Gas and Climate Change l 1
Key Findings
Knowing how much methane is leaking from the natural gas system is essential to determining the potential climate
benets ot natural gas use. Cllmate Central's etenslve revlew ot tbe publlcly avallable stuoles nos tbat a pervaslve
lack ot measurements makes lt nearly lmposslble to know wltb conoence wbat tbe average metbane leak rate ls
tor tbe U.S. as a wbole. More measurements, more rellable oata, ano better unoerstanolng ot lnoustry practlces are
neeoeo.
|t bas been wloely reporteo tbat sblttlng trom coal to gas ln electrlclty generatlon wlll provloe a 50 percent
reouctlon ln greenbouse gas emlsslons. |n reallty, tbe etent ot reouceo global warmlng lmpact oepenos largely on
three factors:
1. The methane leak rate from the natural gas system;
2. How mucb tlme bas passeo atter swltcblng trom coal to gas, because tbe potency ot metbane as a greenbouse
gas is 102 tlmes tbat ot carbon ololoe (on a pouno-tor-pouno basls) wben rst releaseo lnto tbe atmospbere
ano oecays to 72 tlmes CO
2
over 20 years ano to 25 tlmes CO
2
over 100 years, ano,
3. Tbe rate at wblcb coal electrlclty ls replaceo by gas electrlclty.
Climate Central has developed an interactive graphic incorporating all three factors. Tbls makes lt easy to vlsuallze
tbe greenbouse benets ot convertlng power generatlon trom coal to natural gas tor oltterent assumptlons ot metbane
leak rates ano coal-to-gas converslon rates wblle also consloerlng metbane's greenbouse potency over tlme.
Tbe LPA recently estlmateo metbane leaks ln tbe natural gas system at 1.5 percent. A 1.5 percent leak rate woulo
acbleve an lmmeolate 50 percent reouctlon ln greenbouse gas (GHG) emlsslons, at tbe lnolvloual power plant level.
However, LPA's estlmate contalns slgnlcant uncertalnty, ano llke all estlmates avallable ln tbe peer-revleweo llterature,
lacks sutclent real-worlo measurements to guloe oeclslon-maklng at tbe natlonal level. Cllmate Central touno tbat
tbe ongolng sbltt trom coal to gas ln power generatlon ln tbe U.S. ls unllkely to provloe tbe 50 percent reouctlon ln
GHG emlsslons typlcally attrlbuteo to lt over tbe net tbree to tour oecaoes, unless gas leakage ls malntalneo at tbe
lowest estlmateo rates (1 to 1.5 percent) ano tbe coal replacement rate ls malntalneo at recent blgb levels (greater
tban 5 percent per year).
Tbe cllmate benets ot natural gas are sensltlve to small lncreases ln leak rates. Assumlng tbat natural gas replaces
2.5 percent ot coal-reo power eacb year (tbe average over tbe past oecaoe) even a relatlvely low overall leak rate ot
2 percent woulo not acbleve a 50 percent reouctlon ln GHG emlsslons compareo to tbe current Neet ot coal-reo
power plants, for over 100 years. |t tbe leak rate were as blgb as 8 percent, tbere woulo be no cllmate benet at all
trom swltcblng to natural gas tor more tban 60 years.
To compute tbese estlmates, we analyzeo rst tbe potentlal GHG benets trom replaclng tbe electrlclty generateo
by a slngle coal power plant wltb electrlclty trom natural gas lnsteao. For an lnolvloual power plant, lt tbe leak rate
were 2 percent lt woulo take 55 years to reacb a 50 percent reouctlon ln greenbouse lmpacts compareo to contlnueo
coal use. |t tbe leak rate ls more tban 6 percent ot metbane proouctlon, swltcblng to natural gas provloes zero global
warmlng benet tor tbe rst 5 years compareo to contlnulng wltb coal. Tbe swltcb acbleves a mooest 17 percent
reouctlon ln GHG emlsslons atter 37 years (or by 2050, lt tbe swltcb occurs ln 2013). An 8 percent leak rate lncreases
GHG emlsslons untll 2050 compareo wltb contlnueo coal use, ano proouces only about 20 percent less cllmate
pollution than continued coal use after 100 years ot operatlon.
8ut unllke convertlng a slngle power plant trom coal to natural gas, tbe U.S. cannot swltcb lts entlre Neet ot coal-
reo power plants to natural gas all at once. Wben substltutlon ls analyzeo across tbe entlre Neet ot coal-reo plants,
tbe rate ot aooptlon ot natural gas ls a crltlcal tactor ln acblevlng greenbouse benets. Tbe rate ot aooptlon ls analyzeo
togetber wltb tbe powertul but oecllnlng potency ot metbane emlsslons over tlme. Lacb year, as a certaln percentage
of coal plants are converted to natural gas, a new wave of highly potent methane leaks into the atmosphere and then
oecreases ln potency over tlme.
Wben tbe rate ot aooptlon ls lncluoeo, tbe GHG benets ot swltcblng to natural gas can be even more eluslve. Wltb
a 2 percent metbane leak rate, ano an average annual converslon rate ot electrlclty trom coal to gas ot 2.5 percent (a
rate tbat woulo be supportable wltb new gas proouctlon projecteo by tbe U.S. Department ot Lnergy) tbe reouctlons
woulo be 29 percent by 2050 ano 16 percent by 2030. |t metbane leakage ls 5 percent ot proouctlon, by 2050 tbe U.S.
woulo reouce tbe global warmlng lmpact ot lts Neet ot coal reo power plants by 12 percent. 8y 2030, tbe reouctlons
woulo be just 5 percent. Wltb an 8 percent leak rate, GHG emlsslons woulo be greater tban wltb coal tor more tban
50 years betore a benet beglns to be reallzeo.
Wbat ls tbe natural gas leak rate ln tbe U.S.? Tbere are large oltterences among publlsbeo estlmates ot leakage trom
the natural gas supply system, from less than 1 percent ot metbane proouctlon to as mucb as 8 percent. At tbe basln
level, studies have reported methane leak rates as high as 17 percent. Tbe LPA's 2012 annual greenhouse gas emissions
lnventory estlmate was 2.2 percent. |ts 2013 lnventory estlmate maoe a large aojustment tbat reouceo tbe estlmate
to 1.5 percent. Tbe oegree ot metbane leakage ls uncertaln, but lt ls llkely to be reouceo ln tbe tuture slnce lt also
represents lost prots tor gas companles. Nevertbeless, our analysls lnolcates tbat tbe ongolng sbltt trom coal to gas
ln power generatlon ln tbe U.S. over tbe net tbree to tour oecaoes ls unllkely to provloe tbe 50 percent benet tbat
ls typlcally attrlbuteo to sucb a sbltt.
Determining methane leakage is complicated by various uncertainties:
Large varlablllty ano uncertalnty ln lnoustry practlces at wellbeaos, lncluolng:
Wbetber metbane tbat accompanles Nowback ot byoraullc tracklng Nulo ourlng completlon ot sbale
gas wells ls captureo tor sale, Nareo, or venteo at tbe wellbeao. |noustry practlces appear to vary
wloely.
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Years From Today
Llqulos unloaolng, wblcb must be oone multlple tlmes per year at most conventlonal gas wells ano
at some sbale gas wells. Gas entralneo wltb tbe llqulos may be venteo to tbe atmospbere. Tbere
have been relatively few measurements of vented gas volumes, and estimating an average amount of
metbane emltteo per unloaolng ls oltcult oue to lntrlnslc varlatlons trom well to well.
Lack ot sutclent proouctlon eperlence wltb sbale gas wells:
There are orders of magnitude in variability of estimates of how much gas will ultimately be recovered
trom any glven sbale well. Tbls makes lt oltcult to oene an average lltetlme proouctlon volume per
well, which introduces uncertainty in estimating the percentage of gas leaked over the life of an
average well.
Tbe trequency wltb wblcb a sbale gas well must be re-tractureo to malntaln gas Now. Tbls process,
known as a well workover, can result ln metbane emlsslons. Tbe quantlty ot emlsslons per workover
ls an aooltlonal uncertalnty, as lt oepenos on bow workover gas Now ls banoleo.
The leak integrity of the large and diverse gas distribution infrastructure:
Leakage measurements are cballenglng oue to tbe large etent ot tbe olstrlbutlon system, lncluolng
more tban a mllllon mlles ot olstrlbutlon malns, more tban 60 mllllon servlce llne connectlons, ano
thousands of metering and regulating stations operating under varying gas pressures and other
conoltlons.
Recent measurements ot elevateo metbane concentratlons ln tbe alr above streets ln 8oston, San
Franclsco ano Los Angeles strongly suggest olstrlbutlon system leakages. Aooltlonal measurements
are neeoeo to estlmate leak rates baseo on sucb measurements.
Report in Brief
Natural gas use ln tbe U.S. grew by 25 percent trom 2007 to 2012. Wltbln tbe power sector natural gas use grew
trom 30 percent to 36 percent ot all gas use. Sbale gas proouceo by byoraullc tracturlng bas grown especlally raploly,
trom close to zero a oecaoe ago to about one-tblro ot all gas tooay. Contlnueo growtb ls projecteo, ano sbale gas coulo
account tor balt ot all gas ln anotber two oecaoes.
As gas proouctlon bas grown, electrlclty generateo uslng gas bas grown, trom less tban 19 percent of all electricity
ln 2005 to more tban 30 percent ln 2012. Durlng tbe same perloo coal electrlclty tell trom 50 percent to 37 percent.
Many assoclate tbe sbltt trom coal to gas wltb slgnlcant reouctlons ln U.S. greenbouse gas emlsslons trom electrlclty
because ot tbe lower carbon content ot natural gas compareo to coal ano tbe blgber etclency wltb wblcb gas can be
converteo to electrlclty.
However, tbe maln component ot natural gas, metbane, ls a mucb stronger global warmlng gas tban CO
2
, and any
metbane leakage to tbe atmospbere trom tbe natural gas supply system ottsets some ot tbe carbon benet ot a coal-
to-gas sbltt. Here we revlew a wloe set ot stuoles tbat bave been publlsbeo ano provloe analysls to put tbe questlon ot
methane leakage in perspective: Depending on the rate of methane leakage, how much more climate friendly is natural
gas tban coal tor electrlclty generatlon, ano bow ooes tbe rate at wblcb gas ls substltuteo tor coal cbange tbat answer?
Tbe two most recent otclal estlmates ot U.S. metbane emlsslons trom tbe natural gas supply system (publlsbeo
by tbe LPA) are tbat trom 1.5 percent to 2.2 percent ot metbane etracteo trom tbe grouno ln 2010 leakeo to tbe
atmospbere, trom well orllllng ano proouctlon, tbrougb gas processlng, transmlsslon, ano nal olstrlbutlon to eno users.
Tbe range ln tbe LPA's leakage estlmates ano our revlew ot a large number ot otbers' metbane leakage estlmates
lnolcate slgnlcant uncertalnty ln tbe leakage rate. Tbe largest uncertalntles are tor tbe proouctlon ano olstrlbutlon
stages. Peer-revleweo stuoles, wblcb bave tocuseo almost ecluslvely on assesslng leakage rates ln tbe rst tbree stages
(ecluolng olstrlbutlon), bave estlmateo average leakage tor tbese tbree stages trom less tban 1 percent up to 4.5
Production Processing Transmission Distribution
Figure 1. The four stages of the U.S. natural gas supply system.
percent ot gas proouceo, wltb uncertalnty banos etenolng tbls range on tbe blgb eno up to as mucb as 7 percent.
Tbe proouctlon stage ln most stuoles accounts tor 60 to 85 percent or more ot tbe total estlmateo leakage across
tbe tbree stages.
The large uncertainties in leakage estimates arise from the sheer size and diversity of the gas supply system and a
lack ot sutclent measurements ano otber oata tor calculatlng leak rates.
Gas Production
Tbere are more tban balt a mllllon gas wells ln tbe U.S., ano an average ot about 20,000 new wells bave been orllleo
eacb year over tbe past several years.
Durlng tbe proouctlon ot gas trom conventlonal wells (not byoraullcally tractureo wells), a slgnlcant leakage source
ls tbe perloolc unloaolng ot llqulos tbat seep lnto ano accumulate ln a well over tlme. A typlcal gas well unoergoes
llqulos unloaolng multlple tlmes eacb year, ano tbe gas tbat accompanles llqulos to tbe surtace wben tbey are unloaoeo
ls venteo, burneo, or olverteo to a plpellne. 8urnlng converts metbane to CO
2
, a less potent greenbouse gas. Lstlmatlng
tbe metbane venteo ourlng llqulos unloaolng requlres estlmatlng tbe number ot llqulo unloaolngs tbat occur eacb year
ano tbe amount ot metbane venteo at eacb unloaolng. Tbe LPA maoe slgnlcant revlslons ln lts most recent lnventory
ln estlmates ot botb tbe number ot wells uslng llqulos unloaolng ano tbe annual emlsslons trom unloaolngs at sucb
wells. Tbe revlslons resulteo ln a greater tban 90 percent reouctlon ln estlmateo llqulos unloaolng emlsslons between
LPA's 2012 ano 2013 estlmates. Sucb a large aojustment ralses questlons as to tbe uncertalntles ln sucb estlmates.
Havlng conoence ln emlsslons estlmates at tbe natlonal level ls cballenglng because ot tbe large varlatlons ln llqulos
unloaolng requlrements across wells, tbe oltterlng lnoustry practlces tor banollng tbe gas streams tbat accompany
llqulos unloaolng, ano tbe lack ot measurements.
Average metbane leakage rates tor conventlonal gas proouctlon baseo on oltterent stuoles ln tbe llterature range
trom 0.3 to 2.2 percent ot gas proouceo. Tbe large range reNects a lack ot agreement among autbors oue ln part to
tbe poor quallty ano llmlteo amount ot publlcly avallable oata.
Wltb sbale gas, tbe largest emlsslons ourlng proouctlon occur ourlng well completlon, tbe process ot preparlng tbe
well tor tbe start ot marketeo proouctlon. Tbls lncluoes orllllng, byoraullc tracturlng, ano Now back ot tbe tracturlng
Nulo to tbe surtace. |n some cases, malntalnlng gas proouctlon requlres perloolc well re-tracturlng, calleo a workover.
Wbetber tbe gas tbat accompanles tbe Nowback Nulo to tbe surtace ls venteo, burneo, or captureo tor sale slgnlcantly
attects tbe overall leakage rate. How Nowback gas ls banoleo at oltterent wells ls not well known, wblcb turtber
contrlbutes to uncertalntles ln average estlmates ot well completlon emlsslons.
An aooltlonal slgnlcant source ot uncertalnty ln metbane leakage ourlng proouctlon ls tbe amount ot gas tbat
a well wlll proouce over lts lltetlme. Tbls estlmateo ultlmate recovery (LUR) ls lmportant because tbe one-tlme
metbane emlsslons tbat occur ourlng well completlon are allocateo across tbe total epecteo proouctlon trom tbe
well to estlmate tbe percentage ot gas proouctlon tbat leaks. An approprlate average LUR to use ln leakage estlmates
ls oltcult to know wltb conoence because tew sbale wells bave yet operateo tor tbelr tull lltetlme. Moreover, lt ls
llkely tbat LUR values tor wells ln oltterent sbale baslns wlll vary by an oroer ot magnltuoe or more, ano wells wltbln
tbe same basln are epecteo to bave varlatlons ln LUR ot 2 or 3 oroers-ot-magnltuoe.
8eglnnlng ln 2013, all natural gas prooucers are requlreo to report oata to tbe LPA on tbelr proouctlon practlces,
ano tbese oata are epecteo to belp reouce some ot tbe uncertalntles arouno estlmateo leakage rates ourlng gas
proouctlon. |n aooltlon, beglnnlng ln August 2011, LPA regulatlons requlreo tbat metbane be eltber burneo or captureo
ourlng completlon ot byoraullcally tractureo wells. Startlng ln 2015, all byoraullcally tractureo wells wlll be requlreo to
use green completlon tecbnologles to capture tbe metbane. Tbe LPA estlmates tbat metbane leakage ls reouceo by
95 percent wltb a green completlon compareo wltb ventlng ot tbe metbane.
The average methane leakage rate for gas production from hydraulically fractured shale wells estimated in different
stuoles ranges trom 0.6 to 3.0 percent.
Gas Processing
An estlmateo 60 percent ot gas comlng out ot wells ln tbe U.S. contaln CO
2
and other contaminants at unacceptably
blgb levels tor market sale, so tbls gas must rst unoergo processlng. A gas processlng plant ls a collectlon ot cbemlcal
reactors tbat strlp contamlnants, along wltb a serles ot electrlc ano englne-orlven compressors tbat move gas tbrougb
tbe plants. Most ot tbe metbane leakage ourlng gas processlng ls belleveo to come trom compressor seals ano trom
lncomplete gas combustlon ln tbe englnes. A major LPA-sponsoreo stuoy publlsbeo ln 1996 reported measured
leak rates from more than 100 oltterent emlsslon sources ln tbe natural gas supply system. Measurements lncluoeo
compressors and engines at gas processing plants, on the basis of which representative daily leakage rates were
oetermlneo. Tbese are tbe basls tor most ot tbe LPA's gas processlng emlsslon estlmates tooay. Aooltlonally, wben
requlreo, CO
2
that originated in the natural gas is separated from the gas during processing and vented to the
atmospbere. Tbls ls not a metbane emlsslon, but contrlbutes to tbe overall upstream greenbouse gas emlsslons
tootprlnt ot natural gas.
Average metbane leakage trom gas processlng ls 0.1 to 0.3 percent ot tbe metbane proouceo, baseo on oltterent
stuoles. 8ecause tbere ls a well-oocumenteo number ot gas processlng tacllltles one taclllty wlll banole gas trom
many wells ano because emlsslon tactors are baseo on measurements ot compressor ano englne leak rates (albelt
measurements maoe nearly two oecaoes ago), tbe level ot conoence ln estlmates ot gas processlng metbane leakage
rates ls relatlvely blgb. Moreover, baseo on LPA's estlmates, gas processlng accounts tor tbe least metbane leakage
among the four stages in the natural gas supply system, so uncertainties in gas processing estimates are of less
slgnlcance overall tban uncertalntles arouno leakage ln otber stages.
Gas Transmission
Tbere are more tban 300,000 mlles ot natural gas transmlsslon plpellnes ln tbe U.S., some 400 storage reservolrs
of varying types, more than 1400 plpellne-gas compressor statlons, ano tbousanos ot lnter-connectlons to bulk gas
users (sucb as power plants) ano olstrlbutlon networks. Lssentlally all gas passes tbrougb tbe transmlsslon system, ano
about balt ls oellvereo olrectly trom a transmlsslon llne to large customers llke power plants. Transmlsslon plpellnes
are relatlvely well malntalneo, glven tbe rlsks tbat poor malntenance entalls. Tbe LPA estlmates tbat most metbane
emlsslons assoclateo wltb transmlsslon are oue to leakage at compressors ano trom englnes tbat orlve compressors.
Most stuoles estlmate tbat average metbane leakage ln gas transmlsslon ranges trom 0.2 to 0.5 percent ot proouctlon.
Because the number of compressors and engines in the transmission system are relatively well documented and
because emlsslon tactors are baseo on leakage measurements (albelt maoe ln tbe mlo-1990s), tbe level ot conoence
ln estlmates ot gas transmlsslon leakage ls relatlvely blgb. However, varlatlons ln leakage assoclateo wltb tbe large
seasonal movements of gas in and out of storage reservoirs was not considered when measurements were made, and
tbls lntroouces some uncertalntles.
Gas Distribution
About balt ot all gas leavlng tbe transmlsslon system passes tbrougb a olstrlbutlon network betore lt reacbes a
resloentlal, commerclal, or small lnoustrlal user. Net to gas proouctlon, tbe uncertalntles ln metbane leakage estlmates
are most slgnlcant tor gas olstrlbutlon. Asloe trom LPA estlmates, tbere are tew systematlc stuoles ot leakage ln gas
olstrlbutlon. Tbe uncertalntles ln estlmatlng olstrlbutlon leakage arlse ln part because ot tbe large number ano varylng
vlntages ot olstrlbutlon malns (an estlmateo 1.2 mllllon mlles ot plpes ln tbe U.S.), tbe large number ot servlce llnes
connectlng olstrlbutlon llnes to users (more tban 60 mllllon), ano tbe large number ano varlety ot meterlng ano
pressure-regulatlng statlons touno at tbe lntertace ot transmlsslon ano olstrlbutlon systems ano elsewbere wltbln tbe
olstrlbutlon network.
Tbe LPA's leakage estlmates are baseo on measurements maoe ln tbe 1996 study mentioned earlier, and nearly
balt ot olstrlbutlon system leakage ls estlmateo to occur at meterlng/regulatlng statlons. Leakage trom olstrlbutlon
ano servlce plpellnes accounts tor most ot tbe rest. Tbe LPA assumes tbere ls no leakage on tbe customer sloe ot gas
meters, tbougb at least one recent stuoy bas suggesteo tbls may not be tbe case.
More recent measurement-baseo stuoles belp blgbllgbt some ot tbe uncertalntles wltb estlmatlng olstrlbutlon
emlsslons. One stuoy ln Sao Paulo, 8razll, measureo leakage rates trom olstrlbutlon malns maoe ot cast lron, plpe
materlal tbat leaks tbe most. Cast lron was tbe stanoaro materlal tor U.S. olstrlbutlon malns ln tbe 1950s, ano tbere are
an estlmateo 35,000 mlles ot cast-lron plpe stlll ln everyoay use ln tbe U.S. Tbe LPA assumes tbe annual leakage rate
tor a mlle ot cast-lron plpe ls 78 tlmes tbat tor an equlvalent plpe maoe ot steel, a prlnclpal replacement plpe tor cast
lron. Tbe 8razlllan stuoy, baseo on measurements at more tban 900 plpe sectlons, estlmateo an annual leakage rate per
mlle at least tbree tlmes tbat assumeo by tbe LPA.
Tbere bave not been many assessments ot total leakage ln olstrlbutlon systems otber tban tbat ot tbe LPA, wblcb
estlmates leakage ot 0.3 percent ot proouctlon. However, several recent stuoles bave measureo elevateo metbane
concentratlons above tbe streets ot 8oston, San Franclsco, ano Los Angeles. Tbese concentratlon measurements cannot
be converteo lnto estlmates ot leak rates wltbout aooltlonal companlon measurements. Follow-up measurements are ln
progress. Glven tbe poor quallty ot avallable oata on metbane leaks trom tbe olstrlbutlon system, sucb measurements
wlll be essentlal ln reouclng tbe uncertalntles ln olstrlbutlon leakage estlmates.
Natural Gas System Leakage in Total and Implications for Electricity Generation
Llectrlc power generatlon ls tbe largest gas-consumlng actlvlty ln tbe U.S. Wben consloerlng natural gas electrlclty
generation, leakage from the production, processing, and transmission stages are important to consider, since nearly
all power plants recelve gas olrectly trom tbe transmlsslon system. Tbe LPA bas estlmateo metbane leakage across tbe
proouctlon, processlng, ano transmlsslon stages ot tbe U.S. natural gas supply system to be 1.2 percent to 2 percent
ot proouctlon, but our revlew ot otber assessments nos leakage estlmates ranglng trom less tban 1 percent to 2.6
percent for conventional gas and from 1 percent to 4.5 percent tor sbale gas. Wben uncertalntles ln tbe lnolvloual
estlmates are lncluoeo, tbe range etenos to 3.8 percent tor conventlonal gas ano 7 percent tor sbale gas. Our revlew
nos tbat aooltlonal leakage measurements are neeoeo to better unoerstano actual leakage rates.
Absent more certalnty about metbane leak rates, we can assess global warmlng lmpacts ot oltterent leak rates to
loentlty lmportant tbresbolo leakage levels. For lllustratlon, we consloer gas-reo electrlclty generatlon, wblcb bas been
lncreaslng raploly ln recent years prlmarlly at tbe epense ot coal-reo generatlon. |n 2012, 30 percent ot all electrlclty
was generateo trom gas. Many autbors bave suggesteo tbat olsplaclng elstlng coal-reo generatlon wltb natural gas
electrlclty provloes a 50 percent reouctlon ln global warmlng lmpact because ot tbe lower carbon content ot gas ano
tbe blgber etclency wltb wblcb lt can be useo to generate electrlclty. 8ut tbe clalm ot a 50 percent reouctlon lgnores
the global warming impact of methane leaks and the related fact that the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas is
tar blgber tban tbat ot CO
2
. On a pouno-tor-pouno basls metbane bas a global warmlng potentlal about 100 tlmes tbat
ot CO
2
lnltlally, altbougb over 20- or 100-year tlmetrames, tbls reouces to 72 or 25 tlmes.
Taklng lnto consloeratlon tbe tlme-oepenoent global warmlng potentlal ot metbane relatlve to CO
2
, we estimated
tbe potentlal greenbouse benets trom replaclng tbe electrlclty generateo by a slngle coal power plant wltb electrlclty
trom natural gas lnsteao. Our analysls lnolcates tbat lt total metbane leakage trom tbe gas supply system were 4
percent ot proouctlon, tbls substltutlon ot gas-reo electrlclty tor coal-reo electrlclty woulo result ln only about a 25
percent cllmate benet over tbe net oecaoe, a 35 percent benet over a 50-year borlzon, ano a 41 percent benet
over a century (l.e., less tban tbe otten clteo 50 percent reouctlon). At blgber metbane leak rates, tbe benets woulo
be lower over tbe same tlme borlzons. For a swltcb trom coal to gas to provloe any posltlve cllmate benet over any
tlme borlzon, metbane leakage neeos to be 6 percent per year or less, ano to acbleve a 50 percent or better cllmate
benet over any tlme borlzon leakage neeos to be 1.5 percent or less. Tbls analysls applles to a sltuatlon ln wblcb a
coal plant retlres ano lts electrlclty output ls provloeo lnsteao by a natural gas plant.
At tbe natlonal level, one must also consloer tbe rate at wblcb coal plants are substltuteo by gas plants. Here we
consloer a scenarlo ln wblcb tbere ls a steaoy substltutlon ot coal electrlclty by gas-generateo power at some average
annual rate over tlme, assumlng tbe total electrlclty supplleo by gas plus coal remalns constant. Tbls bas rougbly been
tbe sltuatlon ln tbe U.S. over tbe past oecaoe, wben coal electrlclty generatlon oecreaseo at an average rate ot 2.4
percent per year, wltb generatlon trom natural gas maklng up most ot tbe reouctlon. (Tbe rate ot reouctlon ln coal
generatlon bas been acceleratlng. |t averageo 5.5 percent per year over tbe last 5 years, ano 9.4 percent per year over
tbe past 3 years.)
Wltb a coal-to-gas sbltt, every year tbere ls more gas-reo electrlclty proouceo tban tbe prevlous year, ano tbe
methane leakage associated with each new increment of gas electricity has a warming potency that is initially very high
ano talls wltb tlme. Wben tbe global warmlng potentlal ot eacb new annual pulse ot metbane ls consloereo, tbe lmpact
ot sblttlng trom coal to gas ls less tban tor tbe one-tlme coal-to-gas converslon consloereo above.
For eample, lt elstlng coal electrlclty were substltuteo by gas at 5 percent per year, requlrlng 59 years to reacb 95
percent coal replacement, tben ln 2050 37 years trom tooay tbe global warmlng lmpact (compareo to contlnueo
coal use) woulo be lower by 17 or 41 percent, assumlng metbane leakage ot 5 or 2 percent, respectlvely (Flgure 2). |t
leakage were 8 percent tbere woulo be no global warmlng benet trom swltcblng to gas tor at least 50 years.
Tbe 5 percent per year coal substltutlon rate assumeo ln tbe prevlous paragrapb may be oltcult to sustaln wltb
tbe gas supply levels tbe U.S. Department ot Lnergy currently projects wlll be avallable over tbe net tbree oecaoes.
A more reallstlc coal substltutlon rate may be 2.5 percent per year, wblcb wlll requlre 118 years to reacb 95 percent
coal replacement. At tbls rate, tbe reouctlon ln global warmlng potentlal over tbe net 37 years relatlve to contlnueo
coal use would be only 12 or 29 percent tor metbane leakage ot 5 or 2 percent, respectlvely (Flgure 2). To acbleve
better tban tbese levels woulo requlre otber lower-carbon optlons, sucb as reouceo electrlclty consumptlon ano/or
lncreaseo electrlclty supply trom nuclear, wlno, solar, or tossll tuel systems wltb CO
2
capture and storage to provide
some ot tbe substltutlon ln lleu ot gas.
Tbls analysls consloers no cbange ln leakage rate or ln tbe etclencles ot power generatlon over tlme. Tbe benet
ot a swltcb trom coal to gas woulo obvlously lncrease lt leakage were reouceo ano/or natural gas power-generatlng
etclency lncreaseo over tlme.
|n summary, tbe coal-to-gas transltlon rate, tbe cbanglng potency ot metbane over tlme, ano tbe metbane leakage
tractlon all slgnlcantly attect tuture global warmlng. Knowlng wltb greater certalnty tbe level ot metbane leakage
trom tbe natural gas supply system woulo provloe a better unoerstanolng ot tbe actual global warmlng benets belng
acbleveo by sblttlng trom coal to gas.
Figure 2. Impact on global warming of shifting existing coal generated electricity to natural gas over time relative to maintaining existing coal
generation at current level. The impacts are calculated for two different annual coal-to-gas substitution rates and for three assumed methane
leakage rates.
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Years From Today
1. Introduction
Natural gas is the second most abundant fossil
tuel beblno coal, ln botb tbe U.S. ano tbe worlo. At
tbe rate lt was useo ln 2011, tbe U.S. bas an estlmateo
(recoverable) 91-year supply ot natural gas. Coal woulo
last 140 years (Table 1). Oll, tbe most-useo tossll tuel ln
tbe U.S., woulo last 36 years.
The estimates of the total amount of natural
gas storeo unoer tbe U.S. lncreaseo oramatlcally ln
the past decade with the discovery of new forms of
unconventional gas, which refers broadly to gas residing
ln unoergrouno tormatlons requlrlng more tban a
slmple vertlcal well orllllng to etract. Sbale, sanostone,
carbonate, and coal formations can all trap natural
gas, but tbls gas ooesn't Now easlly to wells wltbout
aooltlonal stlmulatlon.
4
The production of shale gas,
the most recently discovered unconventional gas, is
growlng raploly as a consequence ot new tecbnology
ano know-bow tor borlzontal orllllng ano byoraullc
tracturlng, or tracklng.
a
(See 8o 1.) An average ot more
tban 2000 new wells per montb were orllleo trom 2005
tbrougb 2010 (Flgure 3), tbe majorlty ot wblcb were
sbale gas wells.
Sbale gas accounteo tor 30 percent ot all gas
proouceo ln tbe U.S. ln 2011, a sbare tbat tbe U.S.
Department ot Lnergy epects wlll grow slgnlcantly
in the decades ahead, along with total gas production
(Flgure 4). Gas prlces ln tbe U.S. tell slgnlcantly wltb tbe
growth in shale gas and this has dramatically increased
tbe use ot gas tor electrlc-power generatlon (Flgure 5)
at tbe epense ot coal-reo power generatlon. Coal
ano natural gas provloeo 37 percent ano 30 percent ot
U.S. electrlclty ln 2012.
6
Only ve years earller, tbese
sbares were 49 percent tor coal ano 22 percent tor gas.
Uslng natural gas ln place ot coal ln electrlclty
generation is widely thought to be an important way to
reouce tbe amount ot globe-warmlng CO
2
emitted into
the atmosphere, because combustion of natural gas by
ltselt proouces mucb less CO
2
than the combustion
ot an energy-equlvalent amount ot coal (Flgure 6, lett),
ano natural gas can be converteo mucb more etclently
into electricity than coal, resulting in an even larger
oltterence between combustlon-relateo emlsslons per
kllowatt-bour ot electrlclty generateo (Flgure 6, rlgbt).
Wben comparlng only combustlon emlsslons,
natural gas has a clear greenhouse gas emissions
aovantage over coal. 8ut emlsslons are also releaseo
ourlng tossll tuel etractlon ano transportatlon (tbese
are known as tbe upstream emlsslons) ano tbese must
also be considered to get an accurate picture of the full
greenhouse emissions impact of natural gas compared
to coal. Tbe upstream plus combustlon emlsslons wben
considered together are often called the lifecycle
emlsslons.
a
Horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are also applied to produce gas from some tight sandstone and tight carbonate formations. A key distinction
between the term tight gas and shale gas is that the latter is gas that formed and is stored in the shale formation, whereas the former formed external
to the formation and migrated into it over time (millions of years).
4
Table 1. Number of years that estimated recoverable resources of natural gas, petroleum, and coal would last
if each are used at the rate that they were consumed in 2011.*
Years left at 2011 rate of use
WORLD* U.S.**
Conventional Natural Gas
Unconventional Natural Gas
Petroleum
Coal
116
1021
171
2475
42
49
36
140
* Calculated as the average of estimated reserves plus resources from Rogner, et al
1
, divided by total global use of
gas, petroleum, or coal in 2011 from BP.
2
The consumption rates in 2011 were 122 exajoules for gas, 170 exajoules
for oil, and 156 exajoules for coal. One exajoule is 10
18
joules, or approximately 1 quadrillion BTU (one quad).
** Including Alaska. Calculated from resource estimates and consumption data of EIA.
3
Figure 3. Number of gas wells drilled per month in the U.S.
5
Figure 4. Past and projected U.S. natural gas production (in trillion cubic feet per year). A trillion cubic feet of natural gas
contains about one quadrillion BTU (quad), or equivalently about 1 exajoule (EJ) of energy. Source: EIA.
7

Figure 5. Unlike other sectors, natural gas for electricity generation has been growing since around 1990 and is now the single largest user of
natural gas. This graph shows gas use (in million cubic feet per year) by different sectors. Lease, plant, and pipeline fuel refers to natural gas
consumed by equipment used to produce and deliver gas to users, such as natural gas engines that drive pipeline compressors. Source: EIA.
Burning Natural Gas Produces Much Less CO
2
Than Burning Coal
Figure 6. Average emissions by fuel type from combustion of fossil fuels in the U.S. in 2011:
7
average emissions per million BTU (higher
heating value) of fuel consumed (left) and average emissions per kWh of electricity generated (right).
The recent and dramatic appearance of shale
gas on tbe energy scene bas ralseo questlons about
whether or not lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for
natural gas are as favorable as suggested by the simple
comparlson ot combustlon emlsslons alone. Tbe maln
constltuent ot natural gas, metbane (CH
4
), ls a mucb
more powertul greenbouse gas tban CO
2
, so small leaks
from the natural gas system can have outsized impacts
on tbe overall lltecycle carbon tootprlnt ot natural gas.
(See 8o 2.)
|n tbls report, we revlew wbat ls known about
methane leakage and other greenhouse gas emissions
ln tbe tull lltecycle ot natural gas, lncluolng sbale gas. Tbe
natural gas supply system includes production of raw gas,
processing of the raw gas to make it suitable for pipeline
transport, transmlsslon ot gas ln bulk by plpellne (otten
over long olstances), ano nally local olstrlbutlon ot tbe
gas to users (Flgure 7). Tbe lntrastructure ls vast, wltb
literally thousands of places where leaks of methane
coulo occur. As ot 2011, tbe U.S. natural gas system
included more than half a million producing wells, several
bunoreo gas processlng tacllltles (Flgure 8), bunoreos ot
tbousanos ot mlles ot gas transmlsslon plpellnes (Flgure
9) ano lntegrateo storage reservolrs (Flgure 10), more
than a million miles of local distribution mains, and
more tban 60 mllllon servlce plpe connectlons trom
olstrlbutlon malns to users. Tbe system oellvereo on
average about 70 bllllon cublc teet ot gas eacb oay to
users natlonwloe ln 2012.
We olscuss GHG emlsslon estlmates ot tbe natural
gas system maoe by tbe U.S. Lnvlronmental Proouctlon
Agency (LPA), wblcb annually proouces otclal ano
oetalleo estlmates ot all U.S. greenbouse gas emlsslons.
We tben revlew otber, non-LPA estlmates, compare
tbese wltb LPA's numbers, ano blgbllgbt wbere tbe most
slgnlcant uncertalntles lle. We nlsb wltb an analysls
tbat puts ln perspectlve tbe slgnlcance ot oltterent
methane leak rates for the global warming impact of
natural gas substltutlng coal ln electrlclty generatlon.
Figure 7. The U.S. natural gas supply system.
8
Each Stage in the Natural Gas Supply System is a Vast Infrastructure
Figure 8. U.S. natural gas processing plants.
9
Figure 9. The U.S. natural gas transmission system (as of 2009).
10
There are Hundreds of Natural Gas Processing Plants in the Country
Hundreds of Thousands of Miles of Gas Transmission Pipelines Cover the U.S.
Figure 10. U.S. natural gas storage facilities.
11
Natural Gas Storage Facilities Exist Across the Country
Box 1: Shale Gas
Tbere are numerous gas-contalnlng sbale tormatlons across tbe lower-48 states (Flgure 11) ano Alaska, wltb tbe largest
sbale gas reserves estlmateo to be ln tbe Teas/Gult Coast ano Appalacblan reglons (Table 2). Alaska's resources are
also large, but tbere are llmlteo means ln place tooay to transport tbls gas to users elsewbere. Sbale gas proouctlon ln
tbe U.S. quaorupleo between 2007 ano 2011, wltb average annual growtb ot 44 percent. Seven states Teas, Loulslana,
Pennsylvanla, Oklaboma, Arkansas, West vlrglnla ano Coloraoo accounteo tor about 90 percent ot all sbale gas
proouctlon ln 2011 (Flgure 12).
Sbale gas ls tormeo by oecomposltlon over mlllennla ot organlc (carbon-contalnlng) plant ano anlmal matter trappeo
ln geologlc seolment layers. Most sbale tormatlons are relatlvely tbln ano occur tbousanos ot teet below tbe surtace.
Marcellus sbales are typlcal, wltb tblcknesses ot 50 to 200 teet ano occurrlng at oeptbs ot 4,000 to 8,500 teet.
4
The
Antrlum ano New Albany tormatlons (see Flgure 11) are unusual ln belng tblnner ano sballower tban most otber
U.S. sbale oeposlts. Antrlum ano New Albany are also oltterentlateo by tbe presence ot water. Tbls leaos to tbe co-
production of some water with shale gas from these formations, a complication not present for most wells in other
sbale tormatlons (but a common occurrence tor conventlonal (non-sbale) gas wells see olscusslon ln Sectlon 2.1 ot
llqulos unloaolng).
Figure 11. Shale gas formations in the lower-48 states.
12
Table 2. Mean estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey of undiscovered technically recoverable shale gas resources by basin.
13
Gulf Coast
Haynesville Sabine
Eagle Ford
Maverick Basin Pearsall
Mid-Bossier Sabine
Appalacblan 8asln
Interior Marcelllus
Northwestern Ohio
Western Margin Marcellus
Devonian
Foldbelt Marcellus
Alaska Nortb Slope
Shublick
Brookian
Permlan 8asln
Delaware-Pecos Basins Barnett
Delaware-Pecos Basins Woodford
Midland Basin Woodword-Barnett
Arkoma 8asln
Woodford
Fayetteville-High Gamma Ray Depocenter
Fayetteville Western Arkansas
Chattanooga
Caney
8eno Arcb-Fortb Wortb 8asln
Greater Newark East Frac-Barrier
Extended Continuous Barnett
Anoarko 8asln
Woodford
Thirteen Finger Limestone-Atoka
Paraoo 8asln
Gothic, Chimney Rock, Hovenweep
Cane Creek
Mlcblgan 8asln (Devonlan Antrlm)
|lllnols 8asln (Devonlan-Mlsslsslpplan New Albany)
Denver 8asln (Nlobrara Cbalk)
Total
Trillion cubic feet*
124.896
60.734
50.219
8.817
5.126
88.146
81.374
2.654
2.059
1.294
0.765
40.589
38.405
2.184
35.130
17.203
15.105
2.822
26.670
10.678
9.070
4.170
1.617
1.135
26.229
14.659
11.570
22.823
15.973
6.850
11.020
6.490
4.530
7.475
3.792
0.984
376.734
* One trillion cubic feet of gas contains about one quadrillion BTU (one quad).
Tbe elstence ot sbale gas bas been known tor oecaoes,
but only with the development of hydraulic fracturing
ano borlzontal orllllng tecbnlques ln tbe mlo-1990s olo
lt become economlcally vlable to proouce. Hyoraullc
tracturlng lnvolves lnjectlng a tracklng Nulo (water plus
a proppant typlcally sano ano small amounts ot
cbemlcals) at sutclently blgb pressure lnto a well bore
to crack tbe surrounolng rock, creatlng ssures tbat can
eteno several bunoreo teet trom tbe well bore. As tbe
Nulo Nows back to tbe surtace betore tbe start ot gas
production, the proppant stays behind and keeps the
ssures proppeo open allowlng gas to escape to travel
to tbe well bore.
Fracking was originally developed for use in vertically
drilled wells, but shale gas production only began in
earnest with the development of horizontal drilling,
which when combined with fracking, enables access
to much more of the volume of the thin, but laterally
epanslve sbale tormatlons (Flgure 13). State-ot-tbe art
sbale gas wells bave borlzontal boles etenolng 3000
teet or more trom tbe vertlcal bole. Aooltlonally, multlple
horizontal holes are typically drilled from a single well
pad, reducing overall drilling costs and enabling access
to much more of a shale formation from a small area on
tbe surtace.
Figure 13. Hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling
allows accessing more of a thin shale formation.
Figure 12. Shale gas production in the U.S. has grown rapidly.
14
Seven States Accounted for 90 Percent of Shale Gas Production in 2011
*Not to scale
Box 2: The Global Warming Potential of Methane
Some molecules ln tbe atmospbere allow solar energy to pass tbrougb to tbe eartb's surtace, but absorb energy
raolateo back trom tbe eartb ano re-raolate tbat energy back to tbe surtace, tbereby maklng tbe eartb's surtace
warmer tban lt woulo be wltbout tbese greenbouse gases ln tbe atmospbere.Two ot tbe most lmportant global
warmlng molecules are carbon ololoe (CO
2
) ano metbane (CH
4
). Lacb bas oltterent global warmlng bebavlor ano tbe
term Global Warmlng Potentlal (GWP) ls useo to cbaracterlze tbelr warmlng power. For convenlence, tbe GWP
ot one pouno (or kllogram) ot CO
2
ls oeneo to be equal to one, ano GWP's ot otber gases are oeneo relatlve to
tbe warmlng ettect ot CO
2
.
Tbe GWP ot metbane ls oetermlneo by tbree tactors: tbe warmlng propertles ot tbe metbane molecule ltselt
(olrect raolatlve torclng), tbe warmlng resultlng trom lnteractlons between metbane ano otber molecules ln tbe
atmospbere (lnolrect torclng), ano tbe ettectlve lltetlme ot metbane ln tbe atmospbere. Consloerlng tbe rst two
tactors, tbe warmlng lmpact ot one kllogram ot metbane ls 102 tlmes tbat ot one kllogram ot CO
2
, according to the
|ntergovernmental Panel on Cllmate Cbange (|PCC). Tbe tblro tactor ls relevant because tbe carbon ln a molecule ot
metbane emltteo lnto tbe atmospbere wlll eventually react wltb oygen ano be converteo to CO
2
. Tbe cbaracterlstlc
lltetlme tor metbane molecules ln tbe atmospbere ls 12 years.
15
Tbe lltetlme tor a CO
2
molecule in the atmosphere
ls tar longer tban tbls.
8ecause ot tbe oltterent lltetlmes ot CH
4
ano CO
2
, tbe GWP ot CH
4
depends on the time period over which the
lmpact ls assesseo. Tbe longer tbe tlme atter belng emltteo, tbe lower tbe GWP (Flgure 14).
Tbus, tbe tlmetrame useo tor any partlcular analysls ls lmportant. A sborter tlmetrame may be approprlate tor
evaluatlng GWP lt tbe tocus ls on sbort-term warmlng ettects or lt tbe speeo ot potentlal cllmate cbange ls ot more
lnterest tban tbe eventual magnltuoe ot cbange ln tbe longer term. A longer borlzon woulo be more approprlate
wben tbe lnterest ls ln cbanges tbat wlll be epresseo more ln tbe longer term, sucb as slgnlcant lncrease ln sea level.
GWP values tor metbane tbat are consloereo tbe consensus ot tbe cllmate sclence communlty are tbose publlsbeo
ln tbe Assessment Reports ot tbe |ntergovernmental Panel on Cllmate Cbange (|PCC), Table 3. As unoerstanolng ot
tbe sclence ot global warmlng bas lmproveo, tbe estlmate ot metbane's GWP bas lncreaseo. For eample, tbe |PCC's
Secono Assessment Report ano Tblro Assessment Report gave a 100-year GWP ot 21 tor metbane, compareo wltb
25 ln tbe Fourtb Assessment Report. More recent analysls bas suggesteo tbat tbe GWP may be blgber stlll,
16
but
penolng publlcatlon ot tbe |PCC's Flttb Assessment Report (epecteo ln 2013/2014), tbe sclentlc consensus GWP
values are tbose ln Table 3. Most analysts use tbe 100-year GWP to convert metbane emlsslons lnto equlvalent
CO
2
emlsslons, slnce tbls ls tbe tlme trame wltbln wblcb slgnlcant cllmate cbanges are epecteo to materlallze,
glven current trenos ln emlsslons. Some analyses use a 20-year GWP, argulng tbat sbort-term ettects are slgnlcant
ano oemano slgnlcant near-term actlon to reouce emlsslons.
17
Alvarez et al.
18
suggest that varying time frames for
assesslng GWP may be usetul. Tbe utlllty ot tbls approacb ls lllustrateo ln Sectlon 4 ot tbls report.
Table 3. The global warming potential for methane falls as the time horizon for its evaluation grows.
15
A 20-year GWP of 72 for methane
means that 1 kilogram of methane gas in the atmosphere will cause the equivalent warming of 72 kilograms of CO
2
over a 20 year period.
The GWP values here are consistent with those shown in Figure 14.
Figure 14. The global warming potential (GWP) of methane relative to CO
2
for a pulse emission at time zero. This assumes a characteristic
lifetime in the atmosphere of 12 years for methane and a lifetime for CO
2
as predicted by the Bern carbon cycle model.
15
(See Alvarez et al.
18
)
20-year GWP 100-year GWP 500-year GWP
GWP of CH
4
(methane) 72 25 7.6
2. EPA Estimates of GHG
Emissions from the Natural
Gas Supply System
Otclal estlmates ot U.S. greenbouse gas
emlsslons slnce 1990 are publlsbeo eacb year by tbe
Lnvlronmental Protectlon Agency ln lts so-calleo
Lmlsslons |nventory
19
. Tbe LPA recently releaseo lts
2013 lnventory
20
, reNectlng estlmates tbrougb 2011.
Our olscusslon bere also lncluoes oetall orawn trom
tbe 2012 lnventory
21
, reNectlng estlmates tbrougb
2010. We note key cbanges ln metbooology ano results
between tbe 2012 ano 2013 lnventorles.
Tbe LPA's estlmate ot total U.S. greenbouse gas
(GHG) emlsslons ln tbe 2012 lnventory are sbown
ln Flgure 15 ln terra-grams (Tg, or mllllons ot metrlc
tons) ot CO
2
equlvalent per year.
b
Nearly 80 percent ot
emlsslons are as CO
2
releaseo trom burnlng tossll tuels.
Methane leakage from the natural gas supply
system also contributes
c
. |n tbe 2012 lnventory, LPA
estlmateo tbat 10 percent ot all GHG emlsslons ln
2010 (ln CO
2
-equlvalent terms) was metbane, wltb
leaks in the natural gas supply system accounting for
one tblro ot tbls, or 215 mllllon metrlc tons ot CO
2
-
equlvalent (Flgure 16). Tbese metbane emlsslons trom
tbe natural gas supply system correspono to 2.2
percent ot metbane etracteo trom tbe grouno (as
natural gas) ln tbe U.S. ln 2010
d
. Tbe LPA aojusteo tbls
estlmate slgnlcantly oownwaro (to 144 mllllon metrlc
tons ot CO
2
-equlvalent ln 2010) ln lts 2013 lnventory,
corresponding to an estimated methane leakage rate
ln 2010 ot 1.5 percent. Tbls large aojustment trom one
LPA lnventory to tbe net blnts at tbe uncertalntles
involved in estimating the national methane leakage
rate.
Tbe LPA oevelops lts emlsslon estlmates uslng a
wide variety of data sources and by applying a multitude
ot assumptlons. (See 8o 3). LPA's estlmateo metbane
emlsslons ln 2010 trom tbe natural gas system are
summarlzeo ln Table 4, as reporteo ln tbe 2012 ano
2013 lnventorles.
Figure 15. U.S. greenhouse gas emissions as estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency.
21
b
The EPA inventories use 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) for non-CO
2
gases taken from the Third Assessment Report (1996) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), not from the most recent (2007) IPCC Assessment. The methane GWP value used by EPA in
this inventory is 21. See Box 2 for discussion of GWP.
c
Some naturally-occurring underground CO
2
is also vented to the atmosphere in the course of producing, processing, and transporting natural gas.
EPA estimates these are much less one-tenth of one percent of the CO
2
-equivalent emissions of methane.
23
d
U.S. natural gas consumption in 2010 was 24.1 trillion standard cubic feet according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Assuming the
methane fraction in this gas was 93.4 percent, the value assumed by EPA in its emissions inventory,
23
and taking into account the fact that one standard
cubic foot (scf) of methane contains 20.23 grams (or 20.23 metric tons per million scf), the total methane consumed (as natural gas) was 455 million
metric tons. Considering a GWP of 21 for methane (as the EPA does), this is 9,556 million metric tons of CO
2
-equivalent. The ratio of 215 (Table
4) to 9,556 gives a leakage estimate of 2.25 percent of methane consumed. The leakage as a fraction of methane extracted from the ground is
L = 1 - where x is the leakage expressed as a fraction of methane consumption. For x = 0.0225, or L = 0.0220, or 2.2%.
1
(1 + x)
Methane was an Estimated 10 Percent of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2010
Figure 16. U.S. methane emissions in 2010 (in million metric tons of CO
2
equivalents) as estimated by the Environmental
Protection Agency.
21
Table 4. EPA estimates of methane emissions in 2010 from the natural gas system in units of million metric tons of CO
2
-equivalent (for a
methane GWP of 21). Figures are from the 2012
22
inventory and the 2013 inventory.
20

Natural Gas Proouctlon
Liquids unloading
Pneumatic device vents
Gas engines
Shallow water gas platforms
Completions and workovers with hydraulic fracturing
Other production sources
Natural Gas Processlng
Reciprocating compressors
Centrifugal compressors (wet seals)
Gas engines
Other processing sources
Natural Gas Transmlsslon ano Storage
Centrifugal compressors (wet seals) (transmission)
Reciprocating compressors (transmission)
Engines (transmission)
Reciprocating compressors (storage)
||ooeeo oatoa| as (||C) sstes
Other transmission and storage sources
Natural Gas Distribution
Meter/regulator (at city gates)
Leaks from main distribution pipelines
Leaks from service pipelines connected mains and users meters
Other distribution sources
Total Natural Gas System (ecluolng eno-use combustlon)
2012 Inventory 2013 Inventory
126.0
85.7
12.8
5.6
5.6
3.8
12.5
17.1
8.3
4.9
3.5
0.3
43.8
15.7
12.8
4.7
3.7
1.9
5.0
28.5
12.5
9.3
4.3
2.4
215.4
million metric tons of CO
2
-equivalent
57.2
5.4
16.7
16.5
41.6
28.3
143.6
Leaks in the Natural Gas System are Estimated to be One Third of Methane Emissions
Box 3: EPAs Methodologies for Estimating Methane Leakage
from the Natural Gas Supply System
LPA arrlves at most ot tbe numbers ln Table 4 uslng a bottom-up approacb, wblcb reters to estlmatlng tbe emlsslons
tor a plece ot equlpment or process ln tbe natural gas system as tbe proouct ot an emlsslons tactor ano tbe estlmateo
number ot tlmes tbls actlvlty ls repeateo across tbe country eacb year. Tbls ls oone tor many oltterent actlvltles ano tbe
results are aooeo up.
23
As an eample, tor reclprocatlng compressors useo at gas processlng plants (see Table 4), LPA
estlmateo (tor tbe 2012 lnventory) tbat tbe total number ot compressors was 5,028 ln 2010 ano tbat on average eacb
compressor bao an emlsslon tactor (leakage ot natural gas to tbe atmospbere) ot 15,205 cublc teet per oay. Actual
emissions per day will vary from one compressor to another
24
, but tbe objectlve ot tbe LPA lnventory ls to estlmate
emlsslons at a natlonal level so an average emlsslon tactor ls aoopteo. Multlplylng tbe actlvlty level (e.g., number ot
compressors) by tbe emlsslon tactor, by 365 oays per year, ano by tbe assumeo metbane tractlon ln tbe natural gas
(wblcb varles by reglon ln tbe proouctlon ano processlng steps) glves tbe total annual estlmateo cublc teet ot metbane
leakeo trom reclprocatlng compressors at gas processlng plants ln 2010. Tbe LPA converts cublc teet per year to grams
per year tor purposes ot reportlng ln tbe lnventory. (A stanoaro cublc toot ot metbane contalns 20.2 grams.)
Many ot LPA's emlsslon tactors were oevelopeo trom a large measurement-baseo stuoy ot tbe natural gas system oone
ln tbe mlo-1990s.
25
Some ot tbe tactors bave been upoateo slnce tben.
For some actlvltles, LPA aojusts lts emlsslons estlmates to account tor varlous tactors tbat leao to lower estlmateo
emlsslons tban wben uslng oetault emlsslon tactors. For eample, lnoustry partners ln LPA's Natural Gas STAR
Program
26
use varlous tecbnologles to lower emlsslons. |n lts 2012 lnventory, LPA aojusteo lts natlonal estlmate ot
emlsslons to account tor reouctlons by tbe STAR Program partners. As anotber eample, some state regulatlons
requlre tbe use ot certaln tecbnologles to avolo ventlng ot metbane ln parts ot tbe natural gas system. Tbe LPA aojusts
Figure 17. /etoe esscs (c te ot.o' os s.,,', s,ste (c 700 os estoteo (.e o((eet |^ ssc |.etces
Differences in data sources and methodologies account for the differences in estimated emissions.
27
lts natlonal estlmates to account tor tbe reouceo emlsslons tbat are assumeo to bave been acbleveo ln sucb states.
For eample, some states requlre gas wells createo by byoraullc tracturlng to use tecbnology tbat ellmlnates ventlng
ot metbane ourlng well orllllng ano tracturlng. |n lts 2012 lnventory tbe LPA cltes tbe eample ot Wyomlng as bavlng
sucb regulatlons.
23
For lts 2012 lnventory, LPA estlmateo tbat ln 2010 approlmately 51 percent ot all gas wells tbat
were byoraullcally tractureo ln tbe U.S. were ln Wyomlng. Accorolngly, tbe 2012 lnventory assumes tbat 51 percent
ot tbe estlmateo total number ot byoraullcally tractureo gas wells ln tbe U.S. bao essentlally no emlsslons assoclateo
wltb byoraullc tracturlng. Tbe 2013 lnventory lncluoes major cbanges ln tbese assumptlons, contrlbutlng to a slgnlcant
lncrease ln estlmateo emlsslons assoclateo wltb byoraullcally tractureo wells (Table 4).
Completlng tbe emlsslons lnventory lnvolves a masslve ettort on LPA's part, but ls not wltbout uncertalntles. To belp
aooress tbese, LPA ls contlnually evaluatlng ano mooltylng lts sources ano assumptlons ln an ettort to lmprove tbe
accuracy ot lts estlmates. Wben moolcatlons are lntroouceo lnto tbe estlmatlon metbooology, emlsslons estlmates
tor all prlor years (back to 1990) are revlseo to malntaln a conslstent set ot estlmates over tlme. Tbese moolcatlons
sometlmes result ln large revlslons ln prlor estlmates. Tbls ls lllustrateo ln Flgure 17, wblcb sbows estlmates ot emlsslons
trom tbe natural gas system tor a slngle year (2007) as maoe ln ve successlve lnventorles. |n lts 2011 lnventory, LPA
maoe major aojustments ln lts oata ano metbooologles trom tbe prlor year, resultlng ln a ooubllng ln tbe estlmate ot
metbane emlsslons. No cbanges were maoe ln tbe metbooology tor tbe lnventory publlsbeo ln 2012, but cbanges ln tbe
2013 lnventory tben resulteo ln a orop ln emlsslons ot nearly 20 percent.
2.1 Gas Production
Among tbe tour stages tbat constltute tbe natural
gas supply system (Flgure 7), tbe proouctlon pbase
contrlbutes tbe largest tractlon ot emlsslons ln LPA's
lnventory (Table 4). |t ls also tbe stage tor wblcb tbe
largest cbanges were maoe trom tbe 2012 lnventory
to tbe 2013 lnventory. Wltbln tbe proouctlon pbase,
llqulos unloaolng was tbe largest contrlbutor ln
tbe 2012 lnventory, but sbrank by more tban 90
percent ln tbe 2013 lnventory (Table 4). Tbe category
completions and workovers with hydraulic fracturing
was the smallest contributor to production emissions
ln tbe 2012 lnventory, but was more tban quaorupleo
lnto tbe largest contrlbutor ln tbe 2013 lnventory.
Llqulos unloaolng reters to tbe removal ot Nulos
(largely water) tbat accumulate ln tbe well bore
over tlme at a gas proouclng well. Tbe Nulos must be
removeo to malntaln gas Now, ano ourlng tbls process,
metbane entralneo wltb tbe Nulos can be releaseo to
tbe atmospbere. Conventlonal gas wells teno to requlre
more llqulos unloaolng tban sbale gas wells oue to
oltterences ln unoergrouno geology. From tbe 2012 to
2013 lnventory LPA aojusteo many ot tbe assumptlons
useo to estlmate llqulos unloaolng, lncluolng botb tbe
number ot wells tbat use llqulos unloaolng ano tbe
amount ot metbane emltteo per unloaolng. |mportant
considerations in the latter include the number of
times each year that the average well is unloaded,
the average volume of gas that is entrained with the
llqulos upon unloaolng (wblcb varles by reglon), ano
tbe etent to wblcb tbe entralneo gas ls captureo tor
Narlng (burnlng)
e
or tor sale.
28
A shale gas operation in Greene County, PA. (Nov 2010).
Credit: Mark Schmerling via FracTracker.org.
e
One pound of methane vented to the atmosphere has a GWP of 25, considering a 100-yr time horizon (see Box 2). If instead the 1 lb of methane
were burned, 2.75 lbs of CO
2
would be produced. This amount of CO
2
|as a C\| o 2.S. |o t||s cooa|soo, a|o et|aoe |osteao o veot|o |t
reduces the global warming impact of the emission by a factor of 9.
Well completlon reters to tbe process ot nlsblng
tbe creatlng ot a sbale gas well (lncluolng byoraullc
tracturlng) sucb tbat lt can begln proouclng saleable
gas. A workover ls tbe re-tracturlng ot a sbale gas
well to maintain its productivity at an acceptable
level. Dltterent wells requlre oltterent numbers ot
workovers during their producing life, with some wells
not requlrlng any workovers. Wltb byoraullc tracturlng,
betore gas can Now treely to tbe surtace, tbere ls a
tracklng Nulo Nowback perloo (typlcally lastlng several
oays) ourlng wblcb a substantlal portlon ot tbe lnjecteo
Nulo returns to tbe surtace, brlnglng some amount
ot gas wltb lt. Durlng tbe Nowback perloo, lt gas tbat
surtaces wltb tbe returnlng Nulo ls not captureo
(tor Narlng or tor sale) metbane ls releaseo to tbe
atmospbere. |n tbe 2013 lnventory, well completlon ano
workover emlsslons more tban quaorupleo trom tbe
2012 lnventory prlmarlly because ot an lncrease ln tbe
estimate of the number of wells that were hydraulically
fractured and a decrease in the assumed percentage
ot wells uslng green completlons tecbnology tbat
ls employeo at some wells to ellmlnate most well-
completlon emlsslons.
2.2 Gas Processing
About 60 percent ot all natural gas wltborawn trom
tbe grouno ln tbe U.S. eacb year unoergoes processlng
f

to make it suitable for entry into the gas transmission
system.
29
Processlng ls estlmateo to account tor tbe
smallest contribution to methane emissions among
tbe tour stages ot tbe natural gas system (Table 4).
Some 97 percent ot metbane emlsslons estlmateo to
occur during gas processing are the result of leaks
trom compressors ano gas-reo englnes. (Gas-reo
englnes are useo to orlve reclprocatlng compressors.
|ncomplete combustlon ot gas ln englnes results ln
metbane emlsslons.) Tbe LPA estlmates emlsslons
based on the number of compressors and engines
ln use ano an emlsslons tactor (sct metbane per oay)
tor eacb. Tbe 1990s LPA-sponsoreo stuoy mentloneo
earlier
25
determined the emission factors and the
number ot compressors ano englnes operatlng ln 1992.
LPA's lnventorles tor subsequent years use tbe same
emission factors, and the number of compressors and
englnes ls estlmateo by scallng tbe 1992 counts ot
these by the ratio of gas produced in the inventory
year to tbe gas proouceo ln 1992.
2.3 Gas Transmission and Storage
The natural gas pipeline transmission system in the
U.S. lncluoes more tban 305,000 mlles ot plpe, some
400 storage reservolrs, over 1400 compressor statlons
(Flgure 18) eacb usually wltb multlple compressors,
ano tbousanos ot lnter-connectlons to bulk gas users
(sucb as power plants) ano to olstrlbutlon plpellne
f
Processing typically removes condensates (water and hydrocarbon liquids), acid gases (H
2
S, CO
2
, and others), and sometimes nitrogen. On average
the volume of gas after processing is 7 percent or 8 percent less than before processing.
Natural gas processing plant Natural gas transmisison lines
systems. Tbe LPA estlmates tbat most emlsslons
from the transmission and storage stage come from
compressors and engines, with only a small contribution
trom plpellne leakage (Table 4). Lmlsslons are estlmateo
uslng emlsslon tactors (e.g., sct/mlle/yr tor plpellne
leaks or sct/oay tor compressor leaks), plpellne mlleage,
ano equlpment counts baseo largely on measurements
maoe ln tbe 1990s.
25
varlatlons ln leakage assoclateo
with the large seasonal movements of gas in and out
of storage reservoirs were not considered when
measurements were made, and this may introduce
some uncertalnty.
2.4 Gas Distribution
More tban 1,500 companles manage tbe olstrlbutlon
ot natural gas to about 70 mllllon customers.
31

Tbe LPA's estlmate ot metbane emlsslons trom gas
distribution are for local pipeline distribution systems
(an estlmateo 1.2 mllllon mlles ot plpe) tbat are teo by
the main transmission pipelines and through which the
majorlty ot customers recelve tbelr gas. (Tbls ecluoes
most electric power plants and about half of large
industrial customers, which are connected directly to
a main transmission pipeline and account for perhaps
balt ot all gas useo.
g
) A gas-olstrlbutlon system lncluoes
statlons wbere gas ls metereo ano pressure-regulateo
Figure 18. There are more than 1400 compressor stations in the U.S. natural gas transmission pipeline system.
30
g
In 2012, 36 percent of all gas used for energy was used in electric power generation and 33 percent was used in industry. Assuming all of the gas
used for electric power and half of the gas used by industry was delivered via transmission pipelines, then approximately half of all gas used in the U.S.
was delivered to users via transmission pipeline.
Natural gas meters in the distribution system.
Compression Stations Exist Throughout the Natural Gas Transmission System
as it is transferred from a transmission line into a
olstrlbutlon network. |t also lncluoes tbe olstrlbutlon
plpellnes, servlces (tbe plpe connectlng a customer
to a olstrlbutlon maln), ano customer meters. Tbe
LPA estlmates tbere are more tban 63 mllllon servlce
connections in total, and it assumes no leakage occurs
atter tbe customer meter.
|n tbe LPA 2012 lnventory, tbe most slgnlcant
leakage of methane is at the metering/regulating
statlons (Table 4). Tbe LPA oltterentlates ten oltterent
statlon types accorolng to tunctlon (meterlng ano/or
regulatlng) ano tbe pressure ot gas tbey eacb banole,
ano asslgns a oltterent emlsslons tactor to eacb (ranglng
trom 0.09 to 179.8 sct per statlon per year, baseo on
measurements maoe ln tbe 1990s
25
). Tbe emlsslons
factor for each type of station is multiplied by the
estimated number of that type of station in operation
ln tbat year.
Leakage trom olstrlbutlon ano servlce plpellnes
account for most of the rest of the estimated methane
emlsslons trom tbe olstrlbutlon system. Tbls leakage
ls calculateo accorolng to plpe type cast lron,
unprotected steel, protected steel, plastic, and copper
uslng a oltterent emlsslon tactor tor eacb type (ln sct
per mlle per year) ano servlce llne (ln sct per servlce per
year). |n tbe LPA lnventory, cast-lron ano unprotecteo
Table 5. Pipeline methane emission factors and pipeline
mileage in EPAs 2013 inventory.
20
h
Protected steel refers to carbon steel pipes equipped with a special material coating or with cathodic protection to limit corrosion that can
lead to leakage. (Cathodic protection involves the use of electrochemistry principles.) The use of cast iron and unprotected steel pipes, which are
susceptible to corrosion, is declining. Nevertheless, there are still an estimated 100,000 miles of distribution pipe made of cast iron or unprotected
steel and more than 4.2 million unprotected steel service lines still in use.
23
steel pipes are assumed to have high leak rates, based
on measurements maoe ln tbe 1990s

(Table 5)
h
. Tbe
inventory also estimates the number of miles of each
type of pipe in the distribution system and the number
of each type of service connection to customers based
on oata trom tbe Plpellne ano Hazaroous Materlals
Satety Assoclatlon (PHMSA)
32
.
Distribution mains
Cast iron
Unprotected Steel
Plastic
Protected steel
Transmission pipelines
Annual Leak Rate Miles of Pipe
(sct/mlle)

239,000
110,000
9,910
3,070
566

33,586
64,092
645,102
488,265
304,606
3. Other Estimates of GHG
Emissions from the Natural
Gas Supply System
Wben tbe LPA maoe relatlvely large metbooology
aojustments ln lts 2011 lnventory (Flgure 17), tbey
included a provision to separately calculate emissions
trom tbe proouctlon ot sbale gas ano conventlonal gas.
Tbls aojustment, togetber wltb tbe growlng lmportance
ot sbale gas ln tbe U.S. supply (8o 1), leo otbers to
develop greenhouse gas emission estimates for natural
gas. Many tecbnlcal reports
33-42
ano peer-revleweo
journal papers
17,43-51
have appeared, with emissions
estlmates varylng trom one to tbe net.
All ot tbe publlsbeo analyses bave been maoe uslng
metbooologles slmllar to tbe bottom-up approacb
useo ln tbe LPA lnventory calculatlons, but eacb
stuoy varles ln lts lnput assumptlons. 8ecause ot tbe
diversity of natural gas basin geologies, the many
steps involved in the natural gas system, the variety of
technologies and industry practices used, and, perhaps
most importantly, the lack of measured emissions
data, a large number of assumptions must be made to
estlmate overall emlsslons. As a consequence, oltterent
authors come to different conclusions about the
magnltuoe ot upstream GHG emlsslons. For eample,
some conclude that upstream emissions per unit
energy for shale gas are higher than for conventional
gas
17,46
ano otbers concluoe tbe opposlte.
33,43,49
Many of
the authors rely on the same two information sources
for many of their input assumptions,
52,53
leavlng just a
few key assumptions mainly responsible for differences
among results.
Table 6. Estimates of upstream methane and CO
2
emissions for conventional gas and shale gas, with comparison to EPA estimates for the
natural gas supply system as a whole.* (Emissions from gas distribution are not included here.)
Metbane, kgCO
2
e/G[(LHv)
Well pad construction
Well drilling
Hydraulic fracturing water
Chemicals for hydraulic fracturing
Well completion
Fugitive well emissions
Workovers
Liquids unloading
Proouctlon emlsslons
Processlng emlsslons
Transmission emissions
Total upstream methane emissions
Carbon ololoe, kgCO
2
/G[(LHv)
Flaring
Lease/plant energy
Vented at processing plant
Transmission compressor fuel
Total upstream CO
2
emissions
TOTAL UPSTRLAM,
kgCO
2
e/G[(LHv)
UPSTREAM EMISSIONS
Conv
1.8
6.6
8.6
1.2
2.3
12.1
0.2
0.4
2.4
14.5
Shale
1.3
1.8
4.6
7.8
1.2
2.3
11.3
0.2
0.4
2.6
13.9
Conv
0.3
0.4
0.9
1.6
0.5
1.7
3.8
2.8
0.2
3.0
6.8
Shale
0.3
0.3
1.6
0.9
3.1
0.5
1.7
5.3
2.8
0.2
3.0
8.3
Conv
5.0
0.6
5.6
0.4
6.8
12.8
4.1
0.6
4.7
17.5
Shale
8.6
5.0
15.1
0.4
6.8
22.3
4.1
0.6
4.7
27.0
All
6.8
0.9
2.4
10.0
4.6
14.6
* Methane leakage has been converted to kgCO
2
e using a GWP of 25. Numbers in all but the EPA column are taken from Table SI-5 in the supplemental
information for the paper by Weber and Calvin.
49
Numbers in the EPA column are my estimates based on the 2012 inventory (Table 4, but adjusted to
GWP of 25) and total 2010 U.S. natural gas end-use consumption for energy.
54
CO
2
emissions in the EPA column include estimates from the EPA 2012
inventory
23
plus emissions from complete combustion of lease and plant fuel in 2010 that I have estimated based on EIA data.
55
0.2
1.8
0.1
2.0
1.5
Conv
3.4
2.5
5.9
1.5
1.9
9.3
0.4
3.7
1.0
0.4
5.5
14.8
Shale
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
1.0
3.4
5.1
1.5
1.9
8.5
0.4
3.7
1.0
0.4
5.5
14.0
Shale
4.7
2.1
4.7
11.5
0.6
1.8
13.9
13.9
Conv
1.6
3.6
5.9
11.1
0.8
0.9
12.8
0.4
4.3
0.8
0.3
5.8
18.6
Shale
1.0
0.8
3.6
1.5
6.9
0.8
0.9
8.6
0.4
4.1
0.8
0.3
5.6
14.2
Jiang
47
NETL
33
Hultman
46
Stephenson
48
Burnham
43
Howarth
17
Best
49
EPA
Conv
0.16
0.23
0.18
2.70
3.80
7.1
1.8
1.9
10.8
0.6
3.2
1.2
0.4
5.4
16.2
Shale
0.16
0.2
0.26
0.07
1.2
2.70
1.20
5.8
1.8
1.9
9.5
0.6
3.2
1.2
0.4
5.4
14.9
3.1 Leakage During Gas Production,
Processing, and Transmission
A caretul analysls by Weber ano Calvln
49
encapsulates
well the diversity of estimates of upstream emissions
that have been published relating to the gas production,
processlng, ano transmlsslon stages. Tbey analyzeo ln
oetall tbe assumptlons maoe ln sl oltterent stuoles
and took care to normalize estimates from each study
to eliminate differences arising from inconsistent
assumptions between studies, such as different values
tor metbane GWP, metbane tractlon ln natural gas, ano
otber varlables. Weber ano Calvln ecluoeo olstrlbutlon
emlsslons estlmates trom tbelr comparlsons.
Table 6 shows their normalized estimates in units of
grams ot CO
2
-equlvalent per megajoule ot lower beatlng
value (M[
LHv
) natural gas energy,
i
assuming a methane
GWP ot 25. 8est reters to wbat Weber ano Calvln
consider their best estimate based on their analysis,
including a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, of all of
tbe stuoles. For comparlson, | bave aooeo estlmates ot
emlsslons baseo on tbe LPA 2012 lnventory (year 2010
values, aojusteo tor a metbane GWP ot 25).
Flgure 19, taken trom Weber ano Calvln, grapbs
numbers from Table 6, and shows estimated uncertainty
ranges.
j
For sbale gas ve ot tbe seven estlmates are
slmllar (13.9 to 14.9 gCO
2
e/MJ
LHv
), wltb estlmates
baseo on Howartb
17
ano Stepbenson
48
being markedly
blgber ano lower, respectlvely. Uncertalnty ranges ln
most cases overlap eacb otber. For conventlonal gas,
tbe estlmates baseo on 8urnbam ano Stepbenson
represent the highest and lowest estimates, with the
otbers talllng ln tbe range 14.5 to 17.5 gCO
2
e/MJ
LHv
.
As seen trom Table 6, tbe largest upstream CO
2

emissions are due to combustion of natural gas used
tor energy ln processlng ano transmlsslon stages (lease
ano plant tuel plus transmlsslon compressor tuel). Tbe
numbers in Table 6 suggest that the global warming
lmpact ot upstream CO
2
emissions accounts for about
one tblro ot tbe comblneo lmpact ot CO
2
plus methane,
Figure 19. A diversity of estimates exist in the literature for GHG emissions associated with natural gas production, processing, and delivery.
This graph, from Weber and Calvin
49
(and consistent with numbers in Table 6, but using different sub-groupings) shows upstream emissions
in units of grams of CO
2
e/MJ
LHV
of natural gas, excluding emissions associated with natural gas distribution. Ranges of uncertainty are also
indicated. Best refers to Weber and Calvins own estimates.
i
The energy content of a fuel can be expressed on the basis of its lower heating value (LHV) or its higher heating value (HHV). The difference between
the LHV and HHV of a fuel depends on the amount of hydrogen it contains. The heating value of a fuel is determined by burning it completely under
standardized conditions and measuring the amount of heat released. Complete combustion means that all carbon in the fuel is converted to CO
2
and
all hydrogen is converted to water vapor (H
2
O). The heat released as a result of these oxidation processes represents the LHV of the fuel. If the water
vapor in the combustion products is condensed, additional heat is released and the sum of this and the LHV represents the HHV of the fuel. For fuels
with low hydrogen content, like coal, relatively little water vapor forms during combustion, so the difference between LHV and HHV is not especially
large. The high hydrogen content of methane, CH
4,
eaos t|e o|eeoce bet.eeo |V aoo V |s oe s|o|caot. |e||veeo oatoa| as, .||c| |s ost|
methane, has an HHV that is about 11 percent higher than its LHV.
j
Category groupings in Figure 19 are different from those in Table 6, but overall totals are the same.
Estimates of Upstream Emissions in the Natural Gas System Vary Widely
a not lnslgnlcant tractlon. However, tbls ls baseo on
assumlng a metbane GWP ot 25 (100-year tlme trame).
Were a blgber GWP value (sborter tlme trame) to be
considered, methane would have a higher impact, and
tbe lmpact ot CO
2
woulo be corresponolngly reouceo.
k
Leavlng asloe tbe upstream CO
2
emissions for the
moment, it is possible to remove the complication
lntroouceo by tbe cbolce ot GWP value by epresslng
the methane emissions in physical terms as a percent
ot total metbane etracteo trom tbe grouno. Tbls total
methane leakage during production, processing, and
transmission, as estimated in the various studies, ranges
trom an average ot unoer 1 percent to 2.6 percent tor
conventlonal gas ano trom 1 percent to 4.5 percent tor
sbale gas (Table 7). Tbe LPA 2012 lnventory estlmate
corresponos to a leakage ot 2 percent (wblcb lncreases
to 2.2 percent lt leakage trom tbe olstrlbutlon system ls
lncluoeo). Tbe metbane leak rates corresponolng to tbe
lower and upper ends of the uncertainty ranges for the
8est case ln Flgure 19 are 0.9 percent to 3.4 percent
tor conventlonal gas ano 0.7 percent to 3.8 percent
tor sbale gas. Tbe uncertalnty range tor sbale gas ln
tbe blgbest emlsslons case (Howartb) corresponos
to leakage ot 3.3 percent to 7.0 percent
1
(not sbown
ln Table 7). Notably, tbe lower bouno ot tbls range ls
nearly as high as the upper end of the uncertainty
ranges for any of the other shale gas results shown in
Flgure 19. (Howartb's range tor conventlonal gas ls 1.6
percent to 3.8 percent.)
Some perspectlve on tbe estlmates ln Table 7 ls
provloeo by O'Sulllvan ano Paltsev,
50
who estimate
leakage ourlng completlon (lncluolng byoraullc
tracturlng) ot sbale gas wells ln tbe same sbale baslns
(8arnett ano Haynesvllle) as consloereo by Howartb.
m

O'Sulllvan ano Paltsev orew on gas proouctlon oata tor
1785 sbale gas wells tbat were completeo ln 2010 ln tbe
8arnett tormatlon ano 509 ln tbe Haynesvllle tormatlon.
They estimated well completion emissions by assuming
tbat tor eacb well tbe Nowback ot byoraullc tracklng
Nulo (see Sectlon 2.1) occurs over a 9 oay perloo ano
that the amount of gas brought to the surface with
tbe Nulo ourlng tbls perloo rlses llnearly trom zero at
start to a malmum at tbe eno ot tbe perloo equal
to tbe peak gas proouctlon rate reporteo tor tbe well.
Tbey turtber assume tbat current elo practlce tor
gas handling is represented by an assumption that, on
average, 70 percent ot tbe Nowback gas ls captureo tor
sale, 15 percent ls Nareo at tbe wellbeao (converteo to
CO
2
), ano 15 percent ls venteo wltbout Narlng. Tbey
acknowledge the uncertainties in this latter assumption,
statlng tbat slgnlcant opaqueness surrounos real
worlo gas banollng practlces ln tbe elo, ano wbat
proportion of gas produced during well completions is
subject to wblcb banollng tecbnlques. Tbelr estlmate
ot average per-well emlsslons ln tbe 8arnett tormatlon
ls 7 tlmes less tban tbe estlmate ot Howartb et al.,
17

wbo assume tbat all Nowback gas ls venteo. For tbe
Haynesvllle tormatlon, tbe oltterence between tbe
estlmates ln tbe two stuoles ls a tactor ot 30.
Table 7. Upstream methane leakage (excluding leakage in distribution systems) as a percentage of methane production for the studies
shown in Table 6 and Figure 19.*
k
For example, with GWP = 72 (20-year time frame), CO
2
emissions would be less than 15 percent of total CO
2
-equivalent emissions in most cases.
l
The paper by Howarth, et al.
17
gives total estimated system leakage fractions (including leakage in distribution), of 3.6 percent to 7.9 percent. I have
estimated the range for distribution leakage, based on discussion in that paper, to be 0.35 percent to 0.9 percent and removed this from the original
Howarth et al. est|ates to oov|oe a coos|steot oe o cooa|soo .|t| t|e ot|es' eso|ts.
m
OSullivan and Paltsev also made estimates for wells in the Fayetteville, Marcellus, and Woodford formations.
Production
Processing
Transmission
TOTAL
Conv
1.7
0.2
0.4
2.4
Shale
1.5
0.2
0.4
2.2
Conv
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.7
Shale
0.6
0.1
0.3
1.0
Conv
1.1
0.1
1.4
2.6
Shale
3.0
0.1
1.4
4.5
All
1.37
0.19
0.48
2.02
* Based on Table 6 and (for all but the EPA numbers) energy contents of produced gas per kg of contained methane reported by Weber
and Calvin:
49
Jiang (50 MJ
LHV
/kgCH
4
), NETL (48.8), Hultman (48.2), Stephenson (47.3), Burnham (48.6), Howarth (50.0), and Best
(48.8). The EPA estimate assumes a gas energy content of 51.5 MJ
LHV
/kgCH
4
for consistency with EPA numbers in Table 6.
Conv
1.2
0.3
0.4
1.9
Shale
1.0
0.3
0.4
1.7
Shale
2.2
0.1
0.3
2.7
Conv
2.2
0.2
0.2
2.5
Shale
1.3
0.2
0.2
1.7
Jiang NETL Hultman Stephenson Burnham Howarth Best EPA
Conv
1.4
0.4
0.4
2.1
Shale
1.1
0.4
0.4
1.9
Metbane leakage (percentage ot metbane proouctlon)
O'Sulllvan ano Paltsev report an estlmate ot total
metbane emlsslons trom all U.S. sbale well completlons
ln 2010 ot 216,000 metrlc tons ot metbane.
LPA's estlmate tor 2010 uslng lts 2012 lnventory
metbooology was close to tbls value (181,000 tons),
but uslng tbe metbooology reporteo ln lts 2013
inventory, the emissions are more than triple this value
(795,000 tons). (See Table 4.) Tbus, tbere contlnues
to be slgnlcant uncertalnty about wbat average well
completlon emlsslons are.
Uncertalntles may be reouceo ln tbe tuture wben
a new LPA rule takes ettect startlng ln 2015. Tbe rule
requlres all new byoraullcally tractureo sbale gas wells
to use commerclally-establlsbeo green completlon
tecbnologles to capture, ratber tban vent or Nare,
metbane. Tbe LPA estlmates tbat 95 percent or more
of the methane that might otherwise be vented or
Nareo ourlng well completlon wlll be captureo tor
sale. Wyomlng ano Coloraoo alreaoy requlre green
completlons on all sbale wells.
Tbe new LPA rule ls slgnlcant because tbere ls
general agreement that methane leakage in the gas
proouctlon pbase ls among tbe most slgnlcant leakages
in the entire natural gas system, a conclusion supported
by some recent measurements of the concentrations
of methane in the air above gas wells,
56,57,58
including
a reported leakage rate of 9 percent from oil and gas
proouctlon ano processlng operatlons ln tbe Ulnta
8asln ot Utab,
59
ano 17 percent ot proouctlon ln tbe
Los Angeles 8asln.
60
Sucb estlmates, baseo on top-
down measurements, involve large uncertainties,
but draw attention to the need for more and better
measurements that can help reduce the uncertainty of
estlmateo leakage trom natural gas proouctlon. Some
sucb measurements are unoerway.
61
Well completlon emlsslons are only one ot several
lmportant leakage components ln gas proouctlon.
|n Weber ano Calvln's revlew, tbey loentleo sl
assumptlons tbat contrlbute most slgnlcantly to
variations in overall estimates from one study to
another: i) tbe number ot workovers per sbale-gas
well, ii) the well completion and workover emissions
factor, iii) tbe llqulos unloaolng emlsslons tactor (tor
conventlonal gas wells), iv) the rate of fugitive emissions
at the wellhead, v) the fugitive emissions during gas
processing, vi) ano tbe LUR.
Tbe last ot tbese requlres some eplanatlon.
Emissions that occur only once over the lifetime of a
well (e.g., well completlon emlsslons) or only a llmlteo
number ot tlmes (e.g, llqulos unloaolng) are converteo
into an estimate of emissions per unit of gas produced
by dividing the estimated emission by the total gas
proouctlon trom tbe well over lts tull lltetlme tbe
well's estlmateo ultlmate recovery (LUR). 8ecause
the shale gas industry is still young, there is a limited
proouctlon blstory wltb wells on wblcb to base LUR
estlmates. O'Sulllvan ano Paltsev
50
have noted that
there is appreciable uncertainty regarding the level
ot ultlmate recovery tbat can be epecteo trom sbale
wells. Tbe cballenge ot oetermlnlng wbat LUR to use to
accurately represent leakage per unit of gas production
is compounded by the large and inherent variability in
LUR across oltterent wells. Mean LUR values estlmateo
by tbe U.S. Geologlcal Survey
62
for wells in different
sbale tormatlons (baseo on oecllne-curve analysls
uslng a llmlteo amount ot montbly proouctlon oata),
vary by a tactor ot 60 trom largest to smallest. Wltbln
a glven tormatlon, tbe malmum estlmateo LUR can be
up to 1,000 tlmes larger tban tbe estlmateo mlnlmum
LUR. |n Weber ano Calvln's 8est estlmate ln Flgure
19, tbe uncertalnty range ln emlsslons results ln part
Table 8. Comparison of estimates for methane leakage during completion of shale gas wells in two different formations.
O'Sulllvan
50
kgCH
4
per well completion
35.1
151.3
Howartb
17
(as quoteo by O'Sulllvan
50
)
kgCH
4
per well completion
252
4638
Barnett formation
Haynesville formation
3.2 Leakage from Gas
Distribution Systems
Stuoles revleweo ln tbe prevlous sectlon were
concerned primarily with gas leakage in connection
wltb power generatlon. Leakage trom gas olstrlbutlon
systems was ecluoeo ln tbose stuoles because most
gas-reo power plants recelve gas olrectly trom tbe gas
transmlsslon system. 8ut gas useo ln resloentlal ano
commercial buildings and smaller industrial facilities
about balt ot all gas useo passes tbrougb tbe
olstrlbutlon system betore reacblng a user. Tbe LPA
2012 lnventory estlmates tbat leaks ln tbe olstrlbutlon
system account tor 13 percent ot all upstream metbane
leakage (Table 4), or less tban 0.3 percent ot metbane
proouceo. 8ut tbe sbeer slze ano olverslty ot tbe
gas olstrlbutlon lntrastructure over a mllllon mlles
ot varylng-vlntage olstrlbutlon malns, more tban 60
million service pipelines connecting the mains to users,
tbe large number ot meterlng ano pressure-regulatlng
stations found at the interface of transmission and
olstrlbutlon systems ano elsewbere ano tbe llmlteo
number of leakage measurements that have been made
suggest that there could be large uncertainties in the
LPA estlmate.
One stuoy
63
ln Sao Paulo, 8razll, wblcb measureo
leakage trom cast-lron olstrlbutlon malns, blgbllgbts tbe
uncertalntles. |n tbe 1950s, cast-lron was tbe stanoaro
materlal useo tor olstrlbutlon malns ln tbe U.S. Sao
Paulo bas a cast-lron olstrlbutlon network comparable
to or younger tban tbe U.S. cast-lron network. Mucb
ot tbe cast lron ln tbe U.S. bas been replaceo wltb less-
leaky steel or plastic in recent decades, but there are
stlll an estlmateo 35,000 mlles ot cast-lron plpe stlll ln
everyoay use ln tbe U.S. Wben cast-lron plpes leak lt ls
typlcally at tbe jolnts wbere 12-toot long plpe sectlons
are tteo togetber ln bell ano splgot arrangements.
Tbe jute ber tbat was routlnely useo as tbe sealant
orles out over tlme, leaolng to leakage. Tbere are
about 15 mllllon sucb jolnts ln tbe U.S. olstrlbutlon
system tooay. Comgas, tbe natural gas utlllty ln Sao
Paulo, measureo leak rates ln over 900 plpe sectlons
ln tbelr network. 8aseo on tbese measurements, tbey
conservatively estimated an average annual leak rate
ot 803,548 sct per mlle ot plpe, more tban trlple tbe
emlsslon tactor useo ln tbe 2012 LPA lnventory (Table
5).
n
|n some 15 percent ot tbe Comgas measurements,
emlsslons were two mllllon sct per mlle or blgber.
New top-oown measurement approacbes are
being pursued to try to improve estimates of leakage
trom tbe olstrlbutlon system. Tbese lnvolve measurlng
metbane concentratlons ln tbe alr above a oeneo
reglon ano analyzlng tbese ln conjunctlon wltb wlno
patterns and other variables to try to estimate what
leakage orlglnateo trom tbe natural gas system. Recent
measurements bave loentleo elevateo metbane
concentrations above urban streets in Boston,
64

San Franclsco,
65
ano Los Angeles.
66
Work ls ongolng
ln acqulrlng more measurements to belp estlmate
assoclateo leak rates.
61,65
The growing use of natural gas for power generation
in place of coal makes it particularly important to
understand methane leakage and its global warming
lmpllcatlons. Tbls lssue bas been olscusseo by
others
17,33,43,46,47,49
with varying conclusions due in large
part to oltterent metbane leakage rate assumptlons (as
olscusseo ln Sectlon 3.1). |n tbe absence ot greater
certainty about actual methane leakage rates, it is
especially informative to understand the prospective
global warming impact of different overall leakage rates
wben natural gas electrlclty olsplaces coal electrlclty.
Flgure 20 sbows total lltecycle greenbouse gas
emlsslons assoclateo wltb natural gas (lnoepenoent
ot eno use) per unlt ot energy tor oltterent assumeo
total system leakage rates. Tbe reo portlon ot eacb bar
trom assumeo average LUR values trom a low ot 0.5
to a blgb ot 5.3 bllllon cublc teet per well. (Tbe autbors
state tbat an LUR ot 2 bct ls tbe most llkely value.)
Tbls oroer-ot-magnltuoe range ln LUR blgbllgbts tbe
(slgnlcant) uncertalnty lntroouceo ln uslng LUR to
estlmate leakage tractlons.
4. Natural Gas vs. Coal in
Electricity Generation
n
Comgas subsequently implemented an effort to place plastic inserts in their cast-iron distribution mains to reduce leakage. The extent to which such
|ea' |t|at|oo easoes |ave beeo aoo||eo |o t|e |.S. |s o|co|t to oete|oe. Soe |.S. as ot|||t|es ot|||ze o|oe-ca.||o C|S3CTs (cast-|oo ,o|ot
sealing robot) that add sealant to jute-packed joints by self-navigating through distribution mains, thereby reducing the need for more costly excavation
to repair or replace pipes.
65,63
represents eno-use combustlon emlsslons.
o
Purple ls
the contribution from methane leakage corresponding
to leakage tractlons on tbe -als.
p
Green represents
tbe comparatlvely small olrect upstream CO
2

emlsslons. (Tbe latter result trom combustlon ot natural
gas used as fuel at gas processing plants and in the gas
transmlsslon system ano trom CO
2
that originated
underground and was removed from the natural gas
ourlng gas processlng.
q
)
The left and right graphs include the same physical
emlsslons, but represent tbese uslng 100-year ano 20-
year GWPs tor metbane, respectlvely. Wben tbere ls
leakage the choice of time horizon affects the global
warmlng lmpact estlmate tremenoously, slnce tbe GWP
tor a 20-year tlme borlzon ls nearly trlple tbe GWP tor
a 100 year borlzon (Table 3).
As a polnt ot reterence, tbe LPA's 2012 lnventory
estlmate ot GHG emlsslons trom tbe natural gas system
ls approlmateo by tbe 2 percent leakage case ln tbe
lett panel (100-yr GWP). Also, as a remlnoer, otber
leakage estlmates olscusseo ln Sectlon 3.1 rangeo trom
1 percent to 7 percent (ecluolng any gas olstrlbutlon
leakage).
Wltb 2 percent leakage ano a 100-yr GWP (lett-
panel), emlsslons ot CO
2
trom eno-use combustlon
oomlnate total emlsslons. Metbane leakage contrlbutes
only about 15 percent to tbe total global warmlng
lmpact. Only lt metbane leakage ls at tbe blgb eno ln tbls
grapb (10 percent leakage) ooes tbe global warmlng
impact of leakage approach the level of combustion
emlsslons. Wben a 20-year GWP ls consloereo lnsteao
(rlgbt panel), leakage ot only 4 percent ls sutclent
to cause a global warmlng lmpact equal to tbat trom
gas combustlon alone. Wltb 10 percent leakage, tbe
impact of methane leakage is triple the impact from
combustlon alone.
Going a step further, we can calculate emissions
per kllowatt-bour ot electrlclty trom natural gas ano
compare tbls wltb tbose tor coal electrlclty. As noteo
earlier, natural gas contains much less carbon per unit of
energy tban coal ano can be converteo more etclently
lnto electrlclty. Power plant etclencles tor botb coal
ano gas are well known. A representatlve etclency tor
a mooern natural gas comblneo cycle power plant ls 50
percent (blgber beatlng value basls).
67
Representative
etclencles tor plants uslng pulverlzeo bltumlnous
coal are 31 percent tor a sub-crltlcal plant
68
ano 36
o
Assuming complete combustion of natural gas containing 14 kg of carbon per GJ
HHV
. This corresponds to an assumed natural gas composition by
volume of 97.01percent methane, 1.76 percent ethane, 0.47 percent nitrogen, 0.38 percent CO
2
, 0.26 percent propane, and 0.11 percent n-butane
and an elemental composition by weight of 74.0 percent C, 24.4 percent H, 0.8 percent N, and 0.7 percent O. The average molecular weight is 16.57
g/mol, and the LHV and HHV are 47.76 MJ/kg and 52.97 MJ/kg, respectively.
p
The methane leakage (in kgCO
2
e/GJ
HHV
) as a function of the percentage of production leaked is calculated, using the natural gas characteristics in
footnote o, as follows: = GWP * * 14 *

*

q
Upstream CO
2
emissions include those reported by the EPA for the natural gas system
23
plus emissions from combustion of lease and plant fuel
(which EPA excludes from its inventory for the natural gas system to avoid double counting). Lease and plant fuel emissions are estimated by assuming
complete combustion of lease and plant fuel energy used in 2010 as reported by the Energy Information Administration.
54
Figure 20. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas production, processing, delivery, and end-use for different assumed rates
of upstream methane leakage.
kgCO
2
e
GJ
HHV
% leaked
100
kgC
GJ
HHV
16gCH
4
molC
1molC
12gC
Even Small Methane Leaks Can Have a Large Global Warming Impact in the Short Term
Figure 21. Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from electricity production from natural gas for different assumed rates of upstream
etoe 'eo'oe oo (c !t.c.s :co' (c t,,:o' est :co' ,'ots oo (c o ce e((:et .oot
r
r
Based on emissions shown in Figure 20 and power plant fuel consumption of 7172 GJ
HHV
/kWh a natural gas combined cycle (corresponding to
S0.2 oeceot ec|eoc),
67
11736 GJ
HHV
/'\| (30. oeceot ec|eoc) o ao e|st|o sobc|t|ca| coa|-eo oo.e o|aot
67
and 10019 GJ
HHV
/kWh for a
sooec|t|ca| coa| o|aot (3S.` oeceot ec|eoc)
68
Upstream CO
2
emissions for the subcritical and supercritical coal plants are 8.34 kg/MWh and 7.48
kg/MWh, respectively, and upstream methane emissions are 3.20 kgCH
4
/MWh and 2.76 kgCH
4
/MWh, respectively.
68,69
Bitumous coal
power plants
Natural gas combined cycle power plants with varying
upstream methane leakage (% of produced methane)
Bitumous coal
power plants
Natural gas combined cycle power plants with varying
upstream methane leakage (% of produced methane)
With Methane Leakage Natural Gas Power Generation Can Have a Similar or Higher
Global Warming Impact as Coal Power Generation
percent tor a super-crltlcal plant.
69
(Most elstlng coal
power plants use sub-crltlcal steam pressures. Newer
plants use super-crltlcal pressures.)
Wltb tbese etclencles, Flgure 21 sbows our
estlmates ot GHG emlsslons per kWb ot electrlclty
generateo trom natural gas (wltb oltterent metbane
leakage rates) ano trom bltumlnous coal, assumlng
metbane GWP tlme borlzons ot 100 years (top panel)
ano 20 years (bottom panel). Tbese calculatlons lncluoe
estimates of the upstream emissions associated with
coal electricity, including estimated methane emissions
tbat accompany mlnlng ot bltumlnous coal.
68,69
Wltb tbe 100-yr tlme borlzon (top panel), tbe GHG
emissions for a kwh of electricity from a natural gas
plant are balt tbe emlsslons trom a kwb trom an elstlng
coal plant lt metbane leakage ls unoer about 5 percent.
Lven wltb leakage as blgb as 10 percent, tbe natural gas
kwh still has a lower global warming impact than the
coal kwb about one-tblro less.
|n contrast, wben tbe 20-yr tlme borlzon ls
consloereo (bottom panel), leakage must be llmlteo to
about 2 percent for the natural gas kwh to have half
tbe global warmlng lmpact ot an elstlng coal plant's
kwb. |t leakage ls about 8 percent, tbe natural gas kwb
is no better for the climate than the kwh from an
elstlng coal plant.
Tbe comparlsons ln Flgure 21 oo not aooress tbe
questlon ot wbat ls tbe correct GWP value to use
in comparing the global warming impact of electricity
trom gas ano coal. Alvarez et al.
18
have proposed a
method for assessing the climate impact of a switch
trom one tecbnology to anotber (sucb as coal to
gas electrlclty generatlon) tbat lnvolves more tban
one type ot greenbouse gas emlsslon, tor eample
metbane ano CO
2.
Tbey oene a tecbnology warmlng
potentlal (TWP) tbat represents tbe ratlo ot tbe tlme-
dependent global warming potential of technology
A olvloeo by tbe tlme-oepenoent global warmlng
potentlal ot tecbnology 8 tbat lt replaces. 8y
epllcltly lncluolng tbe oltterent atmospberlc lltetlmes
ot metbane ano CO
2
, this method yields a ratio, for any
time horizon of interest, that represents the relative
global warming potential of switching from technology
Figure 22. Global warming impact of shifting electricity generation from a coal power plant to a natural gas power plant in year zero and
continuing that generation from gas each year thereafter, assuming different methane leakage rates in the natural gas system. Natural gas is
friendlier for the climate for values less than 1.0.
s
s
Assumed heat rates for electricity generation are 7172 kJ
HHV
/kWh (6798 BTU/kWh) for NGCC and 10550 kJ
HHV
/kWh (10000 BTU/kWh) for existing
coal plants. Upstream emissions for coal are as described for subcritical coal in footnote r.
Upstream methane leaked
(% of production)
{
A to tecbnology 8. Tbe ratlo varles wltb tbe tlme
horizon due to the different atmospheric lifetimes of
metbane ano CO
2
. A ratlo less tban one at a partlcular
polnt ln tlme atter a swltcb ls maoe trom A to 8
means tbat tecbnology A bas a lower global warmlng
potentlal tban tecbnology 8 over tbat tlme trame.
Comblnlng tbe TWP metbooology ot Alvarez et al.
with our leakage assumptions, Figure 22 shows the
global warming impact of replacing the electricity from
a coal-reo power plant wltb natural gas electrlclty
and then maintaining that natural gas generation for
every subsequent year tbereatter. Results are sbown
for different assumed total methane leakage rates
epresseo as a tractlon ot gas proouceo. For a tlme-
trame ot lnterest (-als), lt tbe corresponolng value on
tbe y-als ls less tban one, tben tbe swltcb trom coal
to gas proouces some level ot cllmate benet relatlve
to malntalnlng electrlclty generatlon uslng coal. For
eample, lt tbe y-als value ls 0.5 at some polnt ln tlme,
NGCC electricity has half as much global warming
potentlal as coal over tbat tlme perloo.
Many authors have suggested that switching from
coal to gas electricity halves the global warming impact
ot electrlclty generatlon. Flgure 22 lnolcates tbat tbls
ls true lt metbane leakage ls about 1.5 percent ot
proouctlon. |t leakage were as blgb as 6 percent, tbe
switch to gas would still be better for the climate than
coal over any time period considered, although barely
so ln tbe earller years atter tbe swltcb. |t leakage were
8 percent, swltcblng trom coal to gas woulo requlre
37 years betore any cllmate benet ls acbleveo. Wltb
10 percent leakage lt takes 67 years. At tbese blgber
leak rates, a 50 percent cllmate benet woulo not be
reallzeo tor well over a century.
Figure 22 represents the impact of shifting one
power plant worth of electricity generation from coal
to gas. An lmportant tollow-on questlon ls wbat wouo
be the global warming impact of shifting over time the
wbole Neet ot coal power plants to gas. To provloe
some contet ln answerlng tbe questlon, lt ls belptul
to know that the average rate at which coal electricity
generatlon oecreaseo over tbe oecaoe trom 2002 to
2012 ln tbe U.S. was 2.4 percent per year. Tbe annual
percentage rate of reduction has been rising in recent
years (Table 9). Tbe oecreaseo generatlon trom coal bas
been predominantly replaced by increased generation
trom natural gas. (Tbe comblneo electrlclty generatlon
from gas plus coal grew an average of less than half of
one percent per year ourlng tbe past oecaoe, Table 9.)
We eteno tbe metboo presenteo by Alvarez et al. to
analyze sblttlng ot tbe wbole coal Neet to gas over tlme.
We assume an average annual percentage reouctlon ln
electricity generated from coal and a corresponding
increase in electricity generated from gas,
t
with total
electricity production from coal plus gas remaining the
same eacb year.
u
|t we assume a metbane leakage rate
ot 2 percent ot proouctlon, tben Flgure 23 sbows tbe
prospective global warming impact of switching from
coal to natural gas electricity at different annual rates
(compareo to not replaclng any coal electrlclty). Wltb
a 10 percent per year swltcblng rate, lt woulo take 29
years to replace 95 percent ot coal generatlon. For
tbe otber cases, 95 percent coal replacement woulo be
reacbeo ln 39 years (7.5 percent per year), 59 years (5
percent per year), 118 years (2.5 percent per year), or
more tban 200 years (1 percent per year).
As tull replacement ot coal ls approacbeo, tbe lmpact
on global warmlng reacbes a llmltlng value. Over a long
enough time horizon, all of the cases will approach the
same relatlve lmpact level ot arouno 0.5 (tor an assumeo
2 percent leakage) but, lmportantly, tbls lmpact level ls
reached more slowly when coal replacement occurs
more slowly. Tbe slower tbe approacb to tbe 0.5 level,
tbe more raplo tbe rate ot warmlng. Consloerlng an
otten-useo target year ot 2050, 37 years trom tooay, we
see tbat tbe blgber replacement rates (5, 7.5, ano 10
percent per year) eacb acbleves 40 percent or more
reouctlon ln global warmlng potentlal approacblng
tbe malmum level reacbable ln tbe longer term. At
tbe 2.5 percent per year replacement rate (rougbly tbe
average actual rate over tbe past oecaoe), only a 29
percent reduction in warming potential is achieved by
2050.
t
For a constant annual percentage conversion of coal electricity to gas electricity, the fraction of original coal electricity converted to gas each year is
[r * (1 - r)
(t-1)
] where r is the annual percentage reduction in coal electricity and t is the number of years from the start of the conversion process.
(Conversion begins in year t = 1.)
u
T|e Tec|oo|o \a|o |oteot|a| (T\|) oeoeo b /|vaez et al.
18
(Equation 2 in their paper, with L/L
ref
= 1) is used here to calculate the reduction
in Global Warming Potential from substituting a unit amount of coal-generated electricity with gas-generated electricity in a given year and continuing to
produce that unit amount of electricity from gas in subsequent years. (Figure 22 shows the result of this calculation.) When the amount of electricity made
from natural gas is not constant every year but increases year to year (as coal electricity generation decrseases year to year) the climate impact of each
new annual increment of gas electricity is assessed using the TWP. Then, the climate impact of the electricity generated from coal and gas in total in any
year is the sum of climate impacts caused that year by each new increment of gas-generated electricity added from the start of the counting period up
to that year plus the impact of the reduced amount of coal-generated electricity being produced in that year. Mathematically, the climate impact in total
from the start of a shift from coal to gas over some number of years, N, is calculated as: [r (1 - r)
(t-1)
* TWP(N + 1 - t)]dt + {1 - S
N
t=1
[r (1 - r)
(t-1)
]dt}
where r is the annual percentage reduction in coal electricity and TWP(N + 1 - t) is given by Equation 2 in Alvarez et al.
N
t=1
N
t=1
N
Figure 23. |e'ot.e 'c!o' .o ,o:t c( ot.o' os :c!eo :,:'e ,c.e e,'o: est :co'-(eo ,c.e eeotc ot o((eet
annual rates. In all cases the assumed methane leakage is 2 percent of production.
gas replaces coal at
average % per year
>>>>
2% methane leakage rate
Table 9. U.S. coal and natural gas electricity generation 2002-2012 (left)
6
and annual percentage reduction in coal electricity generation
when averaged over different time periods (right).
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Coal
1,933,130
1,973,737
1,978,301
2,012,873
1,990,511
2,016,456
1,985,801
1,755,904
1,847,290
1,733,430
1,517,203
Natural Gas
691,006
649,908
710,100
760,960
816,441
896,590
882,981
920,979
987,697
1,013,689
1,230,708
Coal + Gas
2,624,136
2,623,645
2,688,401
2,773,833
2,806,952
2,913,046
2,868,782
2,676,883
2,834,987
2,747,119
2,747,911
Llectrlclty Generateo (1000 MWb per year)
2002 - 2012
2003 - 2012
2004 - 2012
2005 - 2012
2006 - 2012
2007 - 2012
2008 - 2012
2009 - 2012
2010 - 2012
2011 -2012
-
2.4 percent
2.9 percent
3.3 percent
4.0 percent
4.4 percent
5.5 percent
6.5 percent
4.8 percent
9.4 percent
12.5 percent
-
Average Annual
Reduction in
Coal Electricity Tlme Perloo
average % per year
>>>>
average % per year
>>>>
The same analysis can be carried out for a different
assumeo metbane leakage rate. Flgure 24 sbows results
tor 5 percent leakage. 8ecause ot tbe blgber metbane
leakage, the impact of switching from coal to gas is not
as substantlal as wltb lower leakage. |n tact, by 2050,
even tbe blgbest coal replacement rate ot 10 percent/
year acbleves only about a 20 percent reouctlon ln
warmlng potentlal. Tbe 2.5 percent replacement rate
acbleves only a 12 percent reouctlon compareo wltb
no coal-to-gas converslon.
As epecteo baseo on Flgure 22, lt leakage eceeos
6 percent, there would initially be negative impacts of
swltcblng trom coal to gas natlonally. Wltb 8 percent
Figure 26. Additional gas required each year (compared to preceding year) under different scenarios. The solid lines represent the new gas
e.eo (c e'e:t:t, eeotc tc e,'o:e :co'-(eo eeotc te J ot te o.o' ,e:etoe otes o:oteo (Cco'-(eo eeotc
in 2012 was 1517 TWh. Gas generation that replaces coal is assumed to require 7,172 kJ of gas per kWh generated, corresponding to a
heat rate of 6,798 BTU/kWh.) The black line is the new gas supply (for all gas uses) projected by the Energy Information Administration in its
2013 Annual Energy Outlook (Early Release) Reference Scenario
.7
(There are approximately 1.1 EJ per trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas.)
leakage, a global warmlng benet ot swltcblng trom coal
to gas ls reacbeo only atter 45 years or more (Flgure
25).
Flnally, tbe oltterent coal-to-gas substltutlon rates
ln Flgure 23 ano Flgure 24 woulo bave oltterent gas
supply requlrements. |t we consloer 2013 as year 1 ln
these graphs, then the amount of additional gas supplies
requlreo ln tbe U.S. to sustaln tbe oltterent rates ot coal-
to-gas substltutlon are as sbown ln Flgure 26. Sbown tor
comparlson are tbe Lnergy |ntormatlon Aomlnlstratlon
(L|A) projectlons ot new gas supplles (tor all eno-uses
ot gas). New gas supplles coulo be blgber tban L|A
projects, but tbe blgber coal substltutlon rates (5 to 10
percent/year) woulo be oltcult to acbleve ln tbe early
years wltb tbe gas supply levels currently projecteo by
tbe L|A, consloerlng oemanos tor gas trom users otber
tban electrlc power plants are also projecteo by L|A
to grow ourlng tbe projectlon perloo. |n tbls contet,
tbe 2.5 percent per year rate may be an acblevable
average coal-to-gas sblttlng rate over tbe net several
oecaoes. |n tbat case, tbe acblevable reouctlon ln global
warming impact from substituting gas for coal out to
2050 woulo be 12 percent to 29 percent, consloerlng
metbane leakage ot 2 percent to 5 percent (Flgure
23 ano Flgure 24). To acbleve better tban tbls woulo
requlre otber lower-carbon optlons, sucb as reouceo
electricity consumption and/or increased electricity
supply from nuclear, wind, solar, or fossil fuel systems
wltb CO
2
capture and storage to provide some of the
substltutlon ln lleu ot gas over tbls tlme trame.
This analysis considered no change in leakage rate or
ln tbe etclencles ot power generatlon over tlme. Tbe
benet ot a swltcb trom coal to gas woulo obvlously
increase if leakage were reduced and/or natural gas
power generatlng etclency lncreaseo over tlme.
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