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Comentarios
• Tanto los Pedidos de Bienes Duraderos, como las Ventas de Vivienda Nuevas fueron peor de lo esperado el viernes; a pesar de que los compradores de primera
vivienda siguen optando del crédito fiscal de 8K$.
• Signos incipientes de aversión al riesgo en el mercado de divisas: el USD y el JPY se están reforzando a costa del EUR y el AUD. La GBP está sometida a fuerte
presión. El índice Compuesto de Shangai ha vuelto a bajar.
• No obstante, el mercado de créditos corporativos parece reflejar un fuerte deseo de liquidez y de riesgo.
• Hoy habrá calma en lo que respecta a los datos, pero las posibles declaraciones sobre las consecuencias del G-20 podrían tener un impacto en los mercados. Se
habla de volúmenes de liquidez record en la zona lateral. Mantenemos “comprar en dips” hasta que veamos más deterioro en los mercados de créditos
corporativos.
Publicaciones de ganancias
País Hora (GMT) Nombre GPA prevista GPA anterior Comentario
(G(GMT)(GM
Informe Diario de Mercado
2.5
120
100
1.5
1 80
0.5
60
-0.5 40
19-maj 19-jul 19-sep 19-nov 19-jan 19-mar 19-maj 19-jul 19-sep 29-09-2008 29-11-2008 29-01-2009 29-03-2009 29-05-2009 29-07-2009
US Bre ake ve n 10 Ye ar Saxo CDS Index
USD breakeven 10 Year – an expression for measuring inflation Credit Default Swaps are expressions for the perceived
expectations. default risk in a company. Now at 52.
AAA and BAA Corporate Bonds vs. 30yr US Treasuries
EURUSD Opt. Vol.
35 7
6
30
5
25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
feb-08 maj-08 aug-08 nov-08 feb-09 maj-09 aug-09
0
sep-07 nov-07 jan-08 mar-08 maj-08 jul-08 sep-08 nov-08 jan-09 mar-09 maj-09 jul-09 sep-09
M o o d y B AA - US Ge n e ri c Go vt 3 0 Ye ar Yi e l d M o o d y AAA - US G e n e ric G o vt 3 0 Ye ar Yi e l d
EUR -USD OP T VOL1 W EUR -USD OP T VO L1 M EUR -USD OP T VOL1 Y
Volatility at different time horizons. Too low, now? Spreads are easing, but still showing tight corporate debt
markets.
45
10
40
35
8
30
6 25
20
4 15
10
2
5
0
0
mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09
nov-08 dec-08 jan-09 feb-09 mar-09 apr-09 maj-09 jun-09 jul-09 aug-09 sep-09
C B OE SP X V OLATILITY I NDX
1
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