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GCC Central Banks Digest

August 2013 (Update)

KMEFIC Research Department


.... Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.

GCC Central Banks Digest


Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company
KMEFIC

MONEY SUPPLY (M2)


(Billion US$)

M2- Period mean in billion US$

Kuwait
107.4 108.6 110.4 113.0 112.6 111.5 110.6 0.79%

Bahrain
23.1 23.8 23.2 23.4 23.7 23.9 23.5 1.83%

Oman
28.6 29.1 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 0.25%

Saudi Arabia
327.9 334.1 338.1 341.1 341.7 344.0 337.8 1.82%

350

337.8

Qatar
112.2 114.5 120.8 120.7 126.8 120.6 119.2 1.10%

UAE
246.7 249.2 247.5 249.9 253.2 253.6 250.0 1.42%

300 250
200 150 250.0

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Period Mean % Deviation from Mean

110.6
100 50 0 Kuwait Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia 23.5

119.2

29.1
Qatar UAE

NET FOREIGN ASSETS


(Billion US$)

NFA-% Deviation from Mean

Kuwait
52.3 51.8 52.8 56.2 54.3 52.9 53.4 -0.81%

Bahrain
4.5 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 -0.33%

Oman
16.9 17.4 17.5 17.3 16.6 16.2 17.0 -4.32%

Saudi Arabia
684.0 699.6 702.2 713.9 713.0 716.4 704.9 1.64%

Qatar
14.3 18.8 23.2 19.5 23.3 14.8 19.0 -21.92%

UAE
53.5 58.2 61.0 N/A N/A N/A 57.6 5.90%

10%
5.90% 5% 0% -5% -0.81%

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Period Mean % Deviation from Mean

1.64% -0.33%
-4.32%

-10%
-15% -20% -25% Kuwait Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia

-21.92%
Qatar UAE

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MoM %)


0.4%

MoM CPI- Period Mean


0.39%

Kuwait
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Period Mean 0.23% 0.31% 0.00% 0.23% 0.16% 0.19%

Bahrain
1.37% -0.34% 0.00% 0.17% 0.76% 0.39%

Oman
-0.28% -0.97% 0.14% 0.00% 1.18% 0.02%

Saudi Arabia
0.32% 0.24% 0.08% 0.24% 0.40% 0.25%

Qatar
0.44% 0.09% -0.09% 0.53% 0.00% 0.19%

UAE
0.12% -0.02% 0.26% 0.26% -0.04% 0.12%

0.3%

0.25% 0.19%

0.2% 0.1%

0.19%
0.12%

0.02%
0.0%

Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

UAE

OVERNIGHT REPO RATE


%

Latest O/N REPO rate %


4.50

Kuwait
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Bahrain
2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25

Oman
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Saudi Arabia
2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

Qatar
4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

UAE
1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

3 2.25 2 1 0 Average GCC Kuwait Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE 1.92
0.75 1.00 2.00

1.00

August 2013 (Update)


Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw Research@kmefic.com.kw (Kindly refer to the Disclaimer on the following page)

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GCC Central Banks Digest


Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company
LOCAL BANKS: Cash Assets & Balances with Central Bank
(Billion US$)
1%
-1.63%

KMEFIC
Cash assets: % Deviation from Mean

Kuwait
11.2 11.2 11.9 13.8 12.3 11.9 12.1 -1.63%

Bahrain
4.2 4.1 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.6 4.0 -10.03%

Oman
4.3 3.5 3.9 4.4 3.1 3.7 3.8 -2.70%

Saudi Arabia
46.5 48.5 50.1 47.2 42.1 40.5 45.8 -11.50%

Qatar
11.0 9.9 10.9 12.1 10.2 9.3 10.6 -12.21%

UAE
56.0 55.6 54.1 N/A N/A N/A 55.2 -2.05%

-3%

-2.70%

-2.05%

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Period Mean % Deviation from Mean

-7%

-11%

-10.03%

-11.50%
-12.21%

-15%

Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

UAE

Credit Facilities to PV-5-month average growth %


1.6% 1.45% 1.4% 1.33%

Credit Facilities and Loans to Pvt. Sector


(Billion US$)

1.2%

1.09% 0.79%

Kuwait
102.8 103.2 104.5 105.8 106.3 106.5 104.8 0.72%

Bahrain
28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 28.9 0.79%

Oman
31.9 32.2 32.4 32.8 33.2 33.7 32.7 1.09%

Saudi Arabia
272.6 275.8 281.3 284.7 288.5 291.3 282.4 1.33%

Qatar
71.5 74.4 74.0 73.2 74.6 76.7 74.1 1.45%

UAE
201.4 203.0 200.7 N/A N/A N/A 201.7 -0.19%

1.0% 0.8% 0.72%

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Period Mean Average Growth

0.6%
0.4% 0.2%

0.0% -0.2%
-0.4% -0.19%

Kuwait

Bahrain

Oman

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

UAE

SELECTED INDICATORS

2011)
Sources:

2018) IMF - Latest

EIU - April 2013

GCC Equity Markets

Real GDP Real GDP % (2001- % (2012-

Sovereign Rating

Sovereign Outlook

Exchange

Exchange Capitalization (in Bln US$)

Market Index YTD

52-W volalility

Market PE

Market PBV

Kmefic Research - 24 September 2013

Kuwait Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE


Notes & Definitions:

4.93 5.63 4.94 5.29 13.15 5.32

3.54 3.76 3.86 4.70 6.17 3.59

A BB A A AA BB

Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable

Kuwait Stock Exchange Bahrain Exchange Muscat Securities Market Saudi Stock Exchange Qatar Exchange Abu Dhabi Sec. Exchange Dubai Financial Market

$ $ $ $ $ $ $

106.76 17.49 23.03 424.04 145.02 113.19 69.50

33.09% 11.75% 14.46% 17.68% 21.07% 45.52% 67.40%


5- N/A: not available

12.00% 7.15% 8.61% 11.59% 9.55% 13.51% 21.07%

17.89 9.58 10.30 15.73 13.74 13.03 12.85

1.61 1.15 1.48 2.41 1.72 1.46 1.71

1- Most of the data is updated from GCC central banks except for the following indicators: CPI: Kuwait: Kuwait Statistical Office - Bahrain: Bahrain Central Informatics Organisation - Qatar: Qatar Statistics Authority - UAE: National Bureau of Statistics - Oman:Ministry of Economy. M2: Oman (Ministry of Economy) 2- CPI % rate is calculated as monthly change in Consumer Price Index. 3- Deviation From Mean: defined as deviation of the latest available data compared to the average period.

6- Credit Facilities & Loans to Pvt. Sector: Loans are defined as claims on private sector for "Commercial Banks" in Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, "Local Banks "in Kuwait, "Banks" in UAE, Loans & Holding of Securities in "Retail Banks" + Invst. with Pvt. Non Banks in "Islamic Banks" for Bahrain.

4- Cash & Balance with CBK: Bahrain: Cash in Retail Banks and Islamic Banks + Balances with Central bank of Bahrain in Retail Banks Oman: Commercial Banks Cash in hand and deposits with Central Bank Saudi Arabia: Commercial Banks reserves with SAMA and Cash in Vault Qatar: Commercial Banks Reserves UAE: Banks Cash and deposit with Central Bank

August 2013 (Update)


Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Company (K.S.C.C.) KMEFIC- P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait Tel.:(+965) 2225 5000 Fax:(+965) 2225 2563 www.kmefic.com.kw Research@kmefic.com.kw

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Legal DISCLAIMER: This report is being provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form a primary basis for any investment decision. This report is not an offer to buy or sell any of the securities that may be referred to herein. In no event will KMEFIC be liable for any loss occurring from investment decisions made based on the recommendation here-enclosed. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors should make their own decision on whether or not to buy or sell the securities covered herein based upon their specific investment goals and in consultation with their financial advisor. KMEFIC has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise make any notification or announcement thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. The inclusion of any opinions/estimates does not necessarily imply a recommendation or endorse the views expressed within them. Many areas of the report contain opinions and/or analysis that represent the involved analysts' views; neither the analysts nor KMEFIC shall be in any way liable for their opinions expressed in the report. This report has been prepared and issued by the Research Department @ Kuwait & Middle East Financial Investment Co. K.S.C.C. (KMEFIC), a licensed Kuwaiti investment company regulated by the Central Bank of Kuwait and the Capital Markets Authority. KMEFIC prepared this report using publicly available information, internal data, and other sources considered reliable; however, KMEFIC makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability with respect to the report or the information, analysis, opinions, or related graphics contained on the report for any purpose. While great care has been taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, neither KMEFIC nor any of its employees shall be in any way responsible for the contents. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed in any jurisdiction where its distribution is restricted by law. Neither this document nor its content may be copied, transmitted or distributed without the prior written consent of KMEFIC. Additional information on the contents of this report is available on request.

Research Team: Safaa Zbib, CVA AGM Research Department s.zbib@kmefic.com.kw Ali Al-Moussawi Snr. Equity Analyst Research Department a.almoussawi@kmefic.com.kw Diana Darwiche Snr. Stock Markets Analyst Research Department d.darwiche@kmefic.com.kw

GCC Central Banks Digest

August 2013 (Update)

....
(+965) 22252563 : -(+965) 22255000 : - 13009 - 819 :.

Kuwait and Middle East Financial Investment Company K.S.C.C.


P.O.Box 819 Safat 13009 Kuwait- Telephone: (+965)22255000- Fax: (+965)22252563
research@kmefic.com.kw www.kmefic.com.kw