DEMAND FORECASTING

Meaning:
Forecasting of demand is the art of predicting demand for a product or service at some
future date on the basis of certain present and past behavior patterns of some related
events.
A demand forecasting is not a speculative exercise into the unknown but, essentially,
reasonable judgement of future probabilities of the market events. It cannot be 100%
precise but it gives a reliable approximation regarding the possible outcome, with a
reasonable accuracy.

Usefulness:
Forecasting of demand is the art of predicting demand for a product or service at some
future date. Hence it plays an important role in the process of planning and decision
making at micro as well as macro level. Expansion of output of the firm should be based on
the estimates of likely demand, otherwise there may be over production and losses may
have to be faced.
For controlling the business on a sound footing, it is essential to have proper budgeting of
costs and profits that is based on forecasting.
Similarly, a satisfactory control of business inventories raw materials, semi-finished
products, finished products, spare parts requires satisfactory estimates of future
requirements, which can be traced through demand forecasting.
Demand forecasting at macro level is of great help to the planners and policy makers for
better planning and rational allocation of country’s resources. Though, it is not fool proof
and correct but it helps in evaluating various forces which affects demand.

Scope of demand forecasting:

Forecasting can be at Micro as well as macro level. The scope of it will depend upon the
area of operation in the present and in future. Much would depend up on the cost and time
involved in relation to the benefit of the information acquired through the study of demand.

Methods of Demand forecasting:

1
 Demand Forecasting
(NATIONAL ANALYSTS)

National Analysts effectively generates demand estimates for clients in an

array of industry sectors by:

• Identifying and describing the current and future competitive

landscape.
• Framing the purchase/usage decision in meaningful ways.
• Generating forecasts for contingencies in as yet uncertain/undecided
product profiles or competitive options.
• Anticipating demand among different market segments.
• Calibrating survey-derived demand estimates to predict actual—not
just relative—revenue or usage volume.

2
 • Integrating the influence of multiple decision makers on acquisition
and usage.

National Analysts has a long history of forecasting new product

performance for clients in pharmaceuticals/biotechnology, financial
services, package transport, information technology, and energy/utilities.

Competitive Landscape

A common error in demand forecasting is to ask potential decision makers

what they would purchase or use without properly sensitizing them to
environmental and competitive conditions that are likely to exist at a time in
the future when the product will be introduced.

For example, pharmaceutical firms need to forecast usage of a drug well

before introduction, but to obtain estimates of usage that are reasonably
reliable, it is critical to account for available brands and generic alternatives
as well as the regulatory and reimbursement environment which is likely to
appear when the new drug is introduced.

Competitive Timeline

Because National Analysts has considerable industry and market

expertise, we are able with client input to do a reasonably good job of
anticipating future competitive, regulatory, and/or market conditions. Once

3
conditions are defined, we create context descriptions that precede the
purchase/usage likelihood questions used in surveys. Using this tact, we
"educate" respondents about future conditions so that they can
meaningfully respond to options that will appear in the future.

Framing the Purchase/Usage Decision

National Analysts is frequently asked to develop volumetric forecasts. For

instance, communications companies need to estimate minutes of usage a
new product or service will generate, computer companies want to know
how many processing units will be sold, and pharmaceutical firms require
estimates of drug prescribing volumes. In some cases, volumetric estimates
are straightforward, but increasingly they are complicated by usage or
purchases that are tailored to individual applications or patients. Failure to
frame the purchase or usage decision in a manner that accounts for real
world differences in application will produce misleading estimates of usage
or purchase. For example, the graphic below describes an estimate of new
product usage without accounting for the fact that physicians might tailor
drug selection to individual patient needs.

When physicians are asked to estimate usage in the context of the

therapeutic needs of a sample of patients from their own practices, we get a
real world estimate of usage that is considerably different than the
aggregate usage forecast. Beyond estimating precision, proper framing can
produce information to support effective downstream marketing activities.
In the example below, notice how prescription behavior varies by patient
type. This information can be used by sales to position utilization of the
new drug more effectively.

4
National Analysts' sophisticated knowledge of industries and markets, as
well as research and modeling, enables us to conceive of and frame choice
exercises that enhance precision and create actionable insight whether the
product is currently available or clearly innovative.

Forecasting for Product Configuration & Market Contingencies

Frequently clients has the opportunity to configure a product to maximize
revenue or usage. However, on some occasions, clients will not have the
freedom to configure the attributes of the product as they wish, and they
may not even know what attributes the product will ultimately possess
because the product is still in development. Independent of product
configurations, there may be considerable uncertainties about future
competitive offers or responses. In each of these situations, the accuracy
and utility of demand forecasts are threatened.

One of the most effective ways to account for these types of contingencies
is to use conjoint or discrete choice analysis. These techniques expose
decision makers to samples of alternative configurations to obtain
measures of the relative impact of each candidate attribute or contingency.
Using decision maker preferences, conjoint and discrete choice analysis
permits forecasts for thousands of alternative configurations or
contingencies.

National Analysts has considerable experience and skill in the use of

conjoint, choice, and optimization modeling methodologies. But even more
importantly, our in-house world-class modeling expertise enables us to
develop creative yet reliable solutions to the most complex product
configuration and market contingency problems.

Demand among Market Segments

5
Demand estimation by segment can create considerable value for clients.
Understanding what groups are more likely to acquire or use a product
permits cost-effective targeting of promotional and sales activities. Consider
the example below:

Primary Care Specialists

Physicians
Size of doctor 85,000 15,000
population
Patients per doctor 3 20
Size of eligible 255,000 300,000
patient population
% of patients 10% 35%
new product
# of patients 25,500 105,000

In this example there are five times more primary care physicians than
specialists yet specialists manage about the same number of patients who
are eligible for a new therapy. Demand forecasting estimates that
specialists will prescribe the new therapy for five times as many patients.
Clearly, by targeting specialists, a pharmaceutical firm could use a smaller
sales force to produce considerably more sales.

6
The presence of world-class segmentation and modeling expertise makes
National Analysts particularly effective in helping clients cost-effectively
target and acquire revenue.

Calibrating Survey-Derived Demand Estimates

Survey-derived demand estimates can be very effective tools for product

development, marketing, and sales. However, demand estimates that are
not adjusted for sources of error can be misleading and very costly.
Consider the following example:

• There are five million diagnosed heart failure patients in the U.S.
• A survey of physicians who treat heart failure produces an
unadjusted estimate that 40% of all heart patients would receive
drug X if it were available.
• Anticipating more than two million patients, pharmaceutical firm A
invests heavily in advertising, promotion, and sales reps.
• Three years after introduction, only 200,000 patients receive drug X.

Pharmaceutical firm A learned an expensive lesson about adjusting survey-

derived demand estimates for various sources of potential error. Some of
the more common sources of error pharmaceutical A should have adjusted
for include:

• The gap between intention to acquire and actual acquisition.

• Inaccurate assumptions about market, competitor, product, and/or
economic conditions.
• Assumptions about awareness and availability.

While some research and consulting firms claim to have a formula for
various forms of error, National Analysts has found that variations in
product, market, and competitive conditions make canned approaches
unreliable. In fact, our most reliable calibrations for error are customized
using a combination of forecasting experience and modeling expertise
supplemented by a healthy dose of product, industry, and market
knowledge.

Integrating the Influence of Multiple Decision Makers

In many cases, reliable forecasts require an understanding and

measurement of multiple influencer or decision maker effects on demand.

7
National Analysts’ experience has taught them to tailor their forecasting
approach to the appropriate decision-making conditions. Frequently, it is
necessary to identify and survey multiple influencers or decision makers,
and then integrate their views. For example, if they are asked to estimate
the prescribing volume of a new drug therapy:

• Managed care decision makers would be asked for the formulary

status that a new prescription product would be likely to earn in their
organization (1) if the decision were entirely up to the payer and (2)
given varying levels of patient and physician demand.

• Patients would be asked what they would do if they saw

advertisements for the new drug or if their doctors gave them a
choice of several alternatives, and how their decisions would change
as a function of what they personally would have to pay for different
drug options.

• Physicians would be asked to predict their product-prescribing

behavior not only based on changing clinical profiles, but also in
response to patient requests and/or formulary restrictions.

Then, for any particular combination of (1) a drug's clinical profile, (2) its
formulary status, and (3) the degree of patient demand and preference,
National Analysts can generate an estimate of prescribing volume.

Product Development

National Analysts is an industry leader in product development research.

Our client research support for product development is distinguished by:

• A complete suite of product development research services, from

qualitative concept testing to product adoption and performance
tracking.
• Powerful conjoint methodologies which ensure a realistic respondent
choice experience and yield extraordinarily accurate market size,
value, and product adoption estimates.
• State-of-the-art market simulators that give our clients unparalleled
flexibility in modeling "what if" product configuration, portfolio,
pricing, and competitor response scenarios.
• A unique and proprietary product optimization system which
determines the product/service, package/bundle, and portfolio
configurations that maximize penetration, share, revenue, and
margin.

8
 • A LINK tool that identifies the optimal product/service package and
positioning for each and every record in your marketing database,
facilitating product-specific prospect list generation and prioritization.

Customer Satisfaction Market Research

National Analysts' approach to customer satisfaction market research is

designed to address the shortcomings of traditional customer satisfaction
measurement (CSM) and customer value analysis (CVA). Targeted customer
satisfaction market research includes:

• Measures of customer requirements and supplier performance

sufficiently granular to support process improvement initiatives at the
line management level.
• Summary measures of competitive performance suitable for upper
management presentation.
• Customer behavior-based relative importance measures for
prioritizing process improvements.
• Modeling tools for assessing and optimizing the financial impact of
process improvement.
• Designs for tracking change over time and implementing a
continuous improvement program.

National Analysts has devoted more than a decade to the development of

our customer relationship optimization approach and has earned a
prominent position in the history of customer satisfaction market research.

Brand Marketing Research

National Analysts' comprehensive brand marketing research process

enables brand managers to: 1) develop a thorough understanding of their
brand's assets; 2) identify opportunities for building and leveraging its
equity; and 3) pinpoint specific areas where brand-building investment will
achieve significant returns.

Since no two brands are alike, there is no rigid formula for brand
marketing research; rather, there are rules of logic and good judgment.
Important components of the process include:

• Identifying brand essence.

• Performing a detailed brand image and performance assessment.

9
 • Implementing systematic brand equity measurements, exploring the
brand's value and resilience (flexibility) in existing markets as well
as its leverage (control) potential for extensions into new markets.
• Monitoring ongoing performance through a systematic brand health
tracking program.

National Analysts has substantial experience performing brand marketing

research in a wide range of product categories in both consumer and
business-to-business markets

Portfolio Strategy

National Analysts helps clients maximize portfolio value by:

• Understanding each product’s competitive set

• Characterizing and quantifying the opportunities for incremental
portfolio revenue vs. cannibalization
• Identifying optimal portfolios
• Supporting implementation of portfolio strategies

Portfolio Strategy… Competitive Product Set Analysis

Understanding and quantifying the competitive products for each candidate

portfolio is a critical first step in portfolio strategy selection. We help our
clients measure share capture from competitive brands as well as
cannibalization from existing products.

Consider the choices XYZ Inc. confronts. Portfolio A consists of a set of

related products. By offering Portfolio A, XYZ Inc. would have a family of
products which could result in category dominance while leveraging
existing sales resources. Portfolio B is compelling because XYZ Inc. senses
that there is a growing opportunity for a new product line. XYZ Inc. has to
choose between Portfolios A and B.

10
 Product Lifecycle Research

National Analysts works closely with clients to identify emerging needs

create responsive programs and maximize market performance throughout
the product lifecycle by:

• Broadening understanding of the pre-launch environment and the

contingencies for success in current and future marketplaces
• Helping to devise and fine-tune strategies that will create/increase
product awareness and generate trial at launch/introduction
• Guiding and supporting clients' decision-making throughout the
product growth phase when maximizing market share is the primary
objective
• Helping to inform and guide strategies to maximize profit while
defending market share during products' mid-life or maturity stage
• Working closely with clients during the product decline phase when
extracting maximum returns from the brand is the primary objective.

Pre-launch ….

Clients from a broad array of industries rely upon National Analysts to help
understand current and future market landscapes as they plan for new
product launches.

• Pre-launch research routinely involves qualitative and quantitative

research to help clients successfully launch new products.

• Preliminary demand forecasts. Quantitative techniques like conjoint

and discrete choice analysis are frequently used to evaluate
alternative product configurations; forecast revenue and share, and

11
 help clients identify the features most likely to drive or suppress trial
and sustain usage in current and future markets.

• Pricing research. The same quantitative modeling techniques used to

develop preliminary forecasts for new products are also applied to
test price sensitivity assuming different product configurations,
brands and market environments.

• Market segmentation. Pre-launch segmentation helps our clients

identify profile and target the most receptive potential customers, and
to understand the demographic, psychological and attitudinal
dynamics that will propel and limit interest in the new product.
National Analysts has a wide repertoire (range) of analytic tools that
enhance the usefulness of clients’ segmentation data, including
need-based, occasion-based, multi-dimensional and individual level
segmentation frameworks.

• Research to support marketing, promotions and communications.

Since National Analysts usually works closely with clients in the
early stages of product positioning, they are routinely asked to draw
on their industry knowledge and marketing expertise to assess and
fine-tune materials to be used in early promotional and marketing
efforts. Qualitative techniques (focus groups, one-on-one interviews)
are preferred methodologies.

• Tracking research. Quantitative tracking research often begins in the

pre-launch phase, with a baseline survey designed to assess any
pre-launch awareness and impressions of a product still in
development; perceptions and use of currently available competitors;
and anticipated positioning and usage of the new product once
launched. Periodic post-launch survey research tracks changes from
baseline over time in terms of awareness, impressions and market
penetration of new products.

Product Introduction…

The primary objective at product launch is to build product awareness and

trial usage among early adopters and rapid followers.

This phase of the product lifecycle is characterized by heavy marketing

and promotional activity targeted to key customer segments. Emphasis is
placed on building effective distribution channels, and generating
momentum with regard to positive hearsay about and experience with a
new product.

12
Thus, communications effectiveness and early-stage product trial are key
concerns to clients in this phase, and National Analysts is often called upon
for guidance in design and execution of research to address:

• Awareness and impressions of the product among early adopters

and other "influencers." Data from this research helps clients fully
understand and build upon positive experience in early adopter
segments to encourage even broader trial, and identify any
unforeseen barriers to adoption that will require attention moving
forward.

• Effectiveness of launch-related marketing and promotional activities.

• Post-launch tracking research. The first wave of post-launch survey

research typically occurs a few months after product introduction,
and measures product awareness, impressions and positioning by
early users; changes in perceptions since the baseline (pre-launch)
research; and market penetration since launch. In addition to
mapping the product’s market progress, data from this and
subsequent waves serve as guidelines for any necessary re-directing
or fine-tuning of marketing and/or promotional activities going
forward.

Product Growth …

Subsequent to introduction, a product may experience a rapid increase in

sales and profit. At this time, the primary objective is to sustain growth for
as long as possible while maximizing market share, often in the context of a
growing number of competitors. It is common in this stage for companies to
further differentiate a product and enhance its competitive edge.

Other methods for sustaining market growth include additional product-

related services, entry into new markets or market segments, the creation
of new promotional platforms, as well as the adoption of more competitive
pricing strategies.

National Analysts has had decades of experience supporting and helping

to guide clients' decision-making during this crucial phase of a product’s
lifespan. Examples of the types of assignments we routinely conduct
include:

• Assessments of value-added initiatives to help fortify brand loyalty

and attract new users
• Evaluations of strategic alliances to broaden market reach and
penetration

13
 • Assessments of new pricing and reimbursement strategies to sustain
growth and brand loyalty, while encouraging broader market
penetration
• Analyses of repositioning efforts to take advantage of any changes in
the marketplace
• Evaluations of alternative marketing and promotional campaigns and
materials to build awareness and interest in broader market

Product Maturity …

As a product matures sales growth slows and competition intensifies. The

primary objective in this phase is to maximize profit while defending market
position. Companies frequently will seek to further differentiate products
from competitors by diversifying the brand.

National Analysts has a long history of providing customized marketing

research and consulting support to clients who are navigating products
through maturity. During this lifecycle stage, we frequently conduct
research to:

• Assess the appeal, potential positioning and forecasted use of new

brand formulations or packaging designed to further differentiate the
product (e.g., a new "SR," sustained release, form of a drug).

• Determine interest in and market prospects for potential product-line

extensions (e.g., feature enhancement).

• Evaluate new pricing and incentives strategies aimed at attracting

new users/switchers and fortifying loyalty of current customers
(e.g., the "bundling" of a company's products at competitive pricing;
volume discounts; improvements in distribution and purchasing
processes, services, etc.)
• Enhance the effectiveness of marketing platforms and promotional
activities, designed to re-emphasize brand differences and benefits,
revitalize product interest, and entice new users and brand
switching.

Product Decline/Change in Status …

In all product lifecycles there is an eventual decline in sales due to factors

such as technological advances, demographic changes, shifts in
preference, or increased competition. In most cases, the objective during

14
this phase is to extract maximum revenue from the product while reducing
marketing, sales and promotional costs.

There are various ways to maximize revenue gain during a product’s

decline, including:

• The development and launch of replacement products.

• The transfer of the original product to a generic manufacturer or
distributor in exchange for a co-marketing arrangement at a
particular price.
• The development of new markets, applications or segments.

National Analysts is particularly adept at helping clients identify

opportunities for revenue maintenance and growth as well as market
replacement or exit.

Research analysis

Qualitative Research

Considered by many to be the masters of qualitative research, National

Analysts offers a comprehensive array of qualitative methods inside the
United States and abroad. The cornerstones of their approach to qualitative
research are industry expertise, in-depth interviewing skill, and extensive
business and marketing experience. Regardless of the techniques required,
clients can feel confident that they will get below the surface to elicit
meaningful insight, wringing the most from each method.

Focus Groups
National Analysts played a seminal role in the development of the focus
group methodology and remains a leader in its effective application. Their
moderators are experienced and adept, and the roster of respondents
includes every conceivable type of respondent from patients to physicians,
children to CEOs. Under the heading of focus groups come traditional
group discussions with grass-roots participants as well as idea-generating
sessions and advisory panels with industry leaders at home and abroad.

Skilled, well-trained moderators with industry experience are supported by

a seasoned qualitative operations management staff, ensuring that the
proper respondents are recruited to the appropriate facility anywhere in the
world.

Online Qualitative Research

To reduce travel burden and costs, many clients are turning to online
qualitative research. National Analysts offers online access to respondents
through both video conferencing and video streaming. One of their offerings

15
is a proprietary online bulletin board service that can be used to conduct
cost-effective in-depth interviews or group interviews anywhere in the
world. Qualified participants are recruited by phone, mail, or e-mail to the
bulletin board. After logging on to the bulletin board, a moderator facilitates
an iterative discussion among participants.

Clients find their bulletin board service a valuable way to uncover new
product ideas, test concepts, and probe decision processes and
motivations. Other applications include panels of selected groups including
early adopters for iterative concept development and segment members for
monitoring changing needs and preferences.

Idea Generation & Delphi Groups

National Analysts employs a group of skilled facilitators experienced at
guiding meaningful discussions designed to test hypotheses or develop
new ideas among client personnel or industry experts.

Advisory Boards & Expert Panels

Keeping ahead of market trends often requires drawing on the expertise of
established leaders in science and industry. National Analysts convenes
and leads ad hoc and semi-permanent advisory panels for their clients in a
variety of fields and venues. The sophistication of their moderators and the
efficiency of our operations teams draw world-class panel participants and
a corresponding level of business insight.

Quantitative Research

National Analysts offers comprehensive global quantitative research

services including project design and management, sampling,
questionnaire development, data collection, and data
analysis/interpretation.

Project Design & Management

Experienced senior project managers are closely involved in all phases of
research, from design through analysis to provide counsel and guide
implementation.

16
Problem Definition
Successful assignments always begin with effective problem definition.
Helping clients conceptualize marketing issues and translate business
problems into practical research questions are what National Analysts
professionals do.

Sampling
The accuracy and credibility of research ultimately depend in large part on
a rigorous well-conceived sample design at the front end and proper
weighting procedures applied at the back. The presence of the experienced
sampling experts with them gives the flexibility to design and execute
exacting sampling plans.

Recent contributions to the field include refinement of a technique called

"ranking," a process designed to improve the accuracy of complex data
projections to a sampled population.

Questionnaire Development
National Analysts approaches the fine art of questionnaire design with
sensitivity to the challenges of measurement and a thorough appreciation
for all the various metrics that can be used to capture attitudes and
behaviors.

Data Collection in the US and Abroad

The breadth of what they do requires use of every data collection technique
including in-person interviews, mail or fax, telephone, electronic (web, disk,
CD) and any combination.

National Analysts was an early practitioner of electronic data collection

with over a decade of experience behind us.

Data Analysis
National Analysts is also prepared to incorporate secondary and customer
databases when necessary to support customer segmentation and
econometric modeling. The types of database services they provide include
merging, matching, and fusion of client and secondary proprietary
databases, as well as database scoring.

Statistical modeling is a valuable decision support tool; predictive models

help businesses make sound decisions that maximize revenue and profit,
and avoid missteps.

Successful modeling helps decision makers understand the relative

influence of various factors on a desired outcome. For instance, product
developers use statistical modeling to identify the configuration of features
and pricing that produce the most revenue and the largest profit. Statistical

17
modeling helps marketers locate potential buyers; determine how much
they have to spend; determine customer priorities and specify the
combination of product, price, promotion, and placement that will earn the
greatest revenue and maximize demand.

• In general, the most effective statistical models accurately forecast

outcomes while also identifying the relative influence of key
contributors to desired outcomes.

18