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Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in
Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda,
Southern Sudan, Tanzania and ganda
In!e"tion Re"ort
June 2011
Client
Nile Basin Initiative
NELSAP Regional Agricultural Trade and Producti vity Project
Authors
P. Droogers
W. Terink
J. Brandsma
W.W. Immerzeel
Report FutureWater: 100
2
Ta#le of !ontents
1 Introduction 7
1.1 Contract Details 7
1.2 Inception Report 7
1.3 Acknowledgements 7
2 General Information 8
2.1 Background 8
2.1.1 Nile Basin Initiative 8
2.1.2 The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) 8
2.1.3 Regional Agricultural Trade & Productivity (RATP) Project 8
2.2 Project objectives 9
3 Research Area and Main Issues 10
3.1 Overview
,
10
3.2 Irrigation potential 11
4 Data and Tools 17
4.1 Data and Interpretation 17
4.1.1 Current studies 17
4.1.2 Climate 18
4.1.3 Streamflow 20
4.1.4 Digital Elevation Models 22
4.1.5 Soils 23
4.1.6 Land cover 24
4.1.7 Vegetation indices 26
4.1.8 Evapotranspiration 27
4.1.9 Groundwater 28
4.1.10 Large scale irrigation practices in the Nile basin 28
4.1.11 Other data sources 30
4.2 Water resources assessment: PCRaster 31
4.3 Irrigation water requirements and potential crop yields 31
5 Methodology 33
5.1 Overview 33
5.2 Work Packages 34
5.3 Phase 1 36
5.3.1 Collection and review of existing information 36
5.3.2 Land suitability assessment 37
5.3.3 Water resources assessment 38
5.3.4 Assessment of irrigation water requirements 39
5.3.5 Potential crop yield assessment 40
5.3.6 Environmental, socio-economics 40
5.3.7 Institutional and legal framework 41
5.3.8 Integration 41
5.4 Phase 2 42
5.4.1 Collection and review of existing information 42
5.4.2 Land suitability assessment 42
3
5.4.3 Water resources assessment 43
5.4.4 Assessment of irrigation water requirements 43
5.4.5 Potential crop yield assessment 44
5.4.6 Environmental, socio-economics 44
5.4.7 Institutional and legal framework 45
6 Staffing and Management 46
6.1 Consultant Staff 46
6.2 Management and meetings 49
6.3 Travel 49
7 Deliverables 51
7.1 Overall 51
7.2 Draft Report Phase 1 51
7.3 Draft Report Phase 2 52
7.4 Final Report 53
8 References 54
9 APPENDIX: Literature Review 57
9.1 Introduction 57
9.2 Irrigation related studies 57
9.3 Other relevant studies 63
9.4 Country specific studies 67
9.4.1 Burundi 67
9.4.2 Eastern DRC 67
9.4.3 Kenya 67
9.4.4 Rwanda 68
9.4.5 Sudan 69
9.4.6 Tanzania 69
9.4.7 Uganda 70
10 Appendix: Summary Countries 72
10.1 Burundi 72
10.1.1 General 72
10.1.2 Socio-economy 72
10.1.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography 72
10.1.4 Main crops and land use 73
10.1.5 Agriculture 73
10.1.6 Summarized facts 77
10.2 Eastern DRC 78
10.2.1 General 78
10.2.2 Socio-economy 78
10.2.3 Climate 78
10.2.4 Agriculture and main crops 79
10.2.5 Summarized Facts 81
10.3 Kenya 82
10.3.1 General 82
10.3.2 Socio-economy 82
10.3.3 Climate and hydrography 82
10.3.4 Agriculture and main crops 83
10.3.5 Summarized Facts 86
4
10.4 Rwanda 87
10.4.1 General 87
10.4.2 Socio-economy 87
10.4.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography 88
10.4.4 Agriculture, land use, and main crops 88
10.4.5 Summarized Facts 90
10.5 Sudan 91
10.5.1 General 91
10.5.2 Socio-economy 91
10.5.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography 92
10.5.4 Agriculture, land use, and main crops 92
10.5.5 Summarized Facts 94
10.6 Tanzania 95
10.6.1 General 95
10.6.2 Socio-economy 95
10.6.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography 95
10.6.4 Agriculture, land use, and main crops 96
10.6.5 Summarized Facts 98
10.7 Uganda 99
10.7.1 General 99
10.7.2 Socio-economy 99
10.7.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography 99
10.7.4 Agriculture and main crops 100
10.7.5 Summarized Facts 102
11 Appendix: PCRaster-NELmod 103
11.1 Hydrological modeling 103
11.2 PC-Raster 104
11.2.1 Introduction 104
11.2.2 Previous applications 105
11.2.3 Discretization 106
11.2.4 Model concept 106
11.2.5 Model data 111
11.3 Conclusions 112
12 Appendix: Facilitator Contract 113
13 Appendix: Data Form 115
14 Appendix: Minutes Validation Workshop 118
15 Appendix: Local expert selection 127
5
Ta#les
Table 1. Worlds Major River Systems
2
....................................................................................10
Table 2. Countries in Nile Basin ..............................................................................................11
Table 3. Breakdown of the consumptive use in the irrigation sector by country (Source:
WaterWatch, 2009). ................................................................................................................29
Table 4. Actually irrigated areas in the Nile Basin according to different sources (Source:
WaterWatch, 2009). ................................................................................................................29
Table 5: Soil and terrain suitability for surface irrigation by country. .........................................59
Table 6: Nile basin, irrigation potential, water requirements, water availability and areas under
irrigation ..................................................................................................................................60
Table 7: Overview of irrigable and irrigated areas in Burundi (Niyongabo, 2007). .....................74
Table 8: Area equipped for irrigation in Burundi. ......................................................................77
Table 9: Agro-climatic zones in DRC (Iessime, 2007). .............................................................79
Table 10: Area equipped for irrigation in DR Congo. ................................................................81
Table 11: Agricultural land sizes in Kenya (Isaya, 2007). .........................................................84
Table 12: Area equipped for irrigation in Kenya. ......................................................................86
Table 13: Agro-climatic zones in Rwanda (AQUASTAT, 2005). ...............................................87
Table 14: Area equipped for irrigation in Rwanda. ...................................................................90
Table 15: Annual projection of water consumption (in BCM) in Sudan in 2003 (Salih, 2007). ...91
Table 16: Total arable land by farming sector in Sudan (Dawelbeit, 2008). ..............................92
Table 17: Area equipped for irrigation in Sudan. ......................................................................94
Table 18: Area equipped for irrigation in Tanzania. ..................................................................98
Table 19: Area equipped for irrigation in Uganda. ..................................................................102
$igures
Figure 1: Overview Nile Basin. ................................................................................................13
Figure 2: Overview study area. ................................................................................................14
Figure 3: Sub-basins in NELarea. ............................................................................................15
Figure 4: Rainfall estimate obtained from FEWS-NET (24/11/2000). ........................................19
Figure 5: Overview of UNH discharge stations in the study area
(http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/html/Stn/B2.html). ........................................................................21
Figure 6: SRTM 90 m Digital Elevation Data of the world. ........................................................22
Figure 7: Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD). ..............................................................24
Figure 8: Two phases approach in the project and associated Work Packages. .......................33
Figure 9. Time planning. (T) indicates travel to the region (note that one travel can serve more
than one Work Package, details in section 6.3). ......................................................................36
Figure 10: Assessment of irrigation potential. ..........................................................................58
Figure 11: Internal renewable water resources by country (in km
3
). .........................................59
Figure 12: Schematic balance of Lake Victoria, Kyogo, and Albert (km
3
/year) (Source: Sutcliffe
and Parks, 1999).....................................................................................................................62
Figure 13: Map of Burundi with the Nile basin. .........................................................................76
Figure 14: Agricultural area and arable land in Burundi. ...........................................................77
Figure 15: Agricultural production in Burundi. ..........................................................................77
6
Figure 16: Map of Eastern DRC with the Nile basin. ................................................................80
Figure 17: Agricultural area and arable land in DR Congo. ......................................................81
Figure 18: Agricultural production in DR Congo. ......................................................................81
Figure 19: Map of Kenya with the Nile basin. ...........................................................................85
Figure 20: Agricultural area and arable land in Kenya. .............................................................86
Figure 21: Agricultural production in Kenya. ............................................................................86
Figure 22: Map of Rwanda with the Nile basin. ........................................................................89
Figure 23: Agricultural area and arable land in Rwanda. ..........................................................90
Figure 24: Agricultural production in Rwanda...........................................................................90
Figure 25: Map of Sudan with the Nile basin. ...........................................................................93
Figure 26: Agricultural area and arable land in Sudan..............................................................94
Figure 27: Agricultural production in Sudan. ............................................................................94
Figure 28: Map of Tanzania with the Nile basin. ......................................................................97
Figure 29: Agricultural area and arable land in Tanzania. ........................................................98
Figure 30: Agricultural production in Tanzania. ........................................................................98
Figure 31: Map of Uganda with the Nile basin........................................................................101
Figure 32: Agricultural area and arable land in Uganda..........................................................102
Figure 33: Agricultural production in Uganda. ........................................................................102
Figure 34: Relation between spatial scale and physical detail. The green ellipses show the
position of different models....................................................................................................103
Figure 35: Example of output of PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model output, in this case the
internal renewable water resources based on the 2000-2009 climatology in the MENA region
(Immerzeel et al., 2011). .......................................................................................................105
Figure 36: Hydrological model concept as will be used in this study. ......................................107
7
% Introdu!tion
1.1 Contract Details
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), under the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program
(NELSAP) and the project Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project (RATP) has
announced a Request for Proposals (RFP) entitled Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in
Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda in July 2010
(RATP/CONSULTANCY/04/2010).
FutureWater, in association with WaterWatch, has submitted a proposal in response to this
RFP. Based on an independent Technical and Financial evaluation FutureWater, in association
with WaterWatch, has been selected to undertake the study.
The consulting services contract was signed between the Nile Basin Initiative / The Regional
Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project and FutureWater in association with WaterWatch
entitled Consulting Services for Assessment of the Irrigation Potential in Burundi, Eastern DRC,
Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. This contract was dated at 5-Feb-
2011 and total project duration is 16 months.
The Contract Reference Number is: NELSAP CU/RATP2/2011/01
1.2 Inception Report
This Inception Report contains a summary of the background of the project, objectives and key
issues of the assignment, overview of the study area, a description of the tasks to be executed,
the proposed approach, a work program and time schedule and a report on the organizational
structure and staffing.
This Inception Report has been discussed during the Validation Workshop in Nairobi on 28-29
March, 2011. This Inception Report has been approved during the meeting under the condition
that recommendations from the Validation Workshop were included. This version of the
Inception Report includes these comments.
1.3 Acknowledgements
The Consultants wish to acknowledge the support, fruitful discussions and useful comments
from all NBI-RATP staff and stakeholders in the countries. In particular Dr. Innocent Ntabana
and Dr. Gabriel Ndikumana are acknowledged for starting this initiative and their support and
advice on the study.
8
& 'eneral Information
2.1 Background
2.1.1 Nile Basin Initiative
The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership of the riparian states that seeks to develop the
river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional
peace and security through its shared vision of sustainable socioeconomic development
through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources.
NBIs Strategic Action Program is made up of the Shared Vision Program (SVP) and Subsidiary
Action Programs (SAPs). The SAPS are mandated to initiate concrete investments and action
on the ground in the Eastern Nile (ENSAP) and Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basins (NELSAP).
This study falls under NELSAP.
2.1.2 The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP)
The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program has its Coordination Unit (CU) based in
Kigali, Rwanda and reports to the Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical Advisory Committee
(NELTAC) and the NBI Secretariat for strategic guidance. The NELTAC reports to the Nile
Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers (NELCOM). The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) through the
Nile Equatorial Lake Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) seeks to promote a productive water
use in Nile basin agriculture.
The NELSAP through its sub basin programs implements pre-investment programs in the areas
of power trade and development and natural resources management. The NELSAP-CU in
partnership with the countries carries out selected preparatory initiatives that have trans-
boundary implications and helps the countries to mobilise resources for project development
including planning, data collection, surveys and feasibility studies. Pre-investment programs
comprise specific studies of the various users of the water resources, formulation of options for
water resources development taking in to account various intervening factors and users,
identification of specific water resources developments integrating options, preliminary design of
each project, cost benefit evaluation, preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment,
comparative studies based on technical, socio-economic and environmental criteria, selection of
priority projects and comparison with other sectoral possibilities. Within the pre-investment
framework, the Regional Agricultural Trade and productivity Project, in concert with the
NELSAP, will promote irrigation development as a contribution towards agricultural
development in the NEL Countries.
2.1.3 Regional Agricultural Trade & Productivity (RATP) Project
RATP is a technical assistance project financed by Canadian International Development
Agency (CIDA) through a recipient-executed trust fund. The project is managed by a Project
Management Unit (PMU) based in Bujumbura-Burundi, and is administratively linked to the
NBIs Subsidiary Action Program for the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NELSAP), which has a
9
coordinating unit (NELSAP-CU) based in Kigali. Although the activities of the proposed project
focus on the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basin area, it supports generation of agricultural
knowledge that is basin-wide, in line with the aims of the NBIs Institutional Strengthening
Project (ISP) and NELSAPs Subsidiary Action Program.
2.2 Project objectives
With a rapid rate of population increase and high pressure on arable land, increased food
production is one of the main concerns and priorities of the governments of the seven countries
involved in the Irrigation Potential study. Improved irrigation technology and better water
resources management have been suggested as mechanisms for increased production. One of
the constraints identified is the reliance on rain fed agriculture as well as low mechanization.
The goal of the study is to ensure household food security, improve farmers income and
alleviate poverty through increase in agricultural production and productivity resulting from
accessibility to irrigation water; and as such, it will contribute to NBIs overall objective of
achieving sustainable socio economic development through equitable utilization of and benefits
from the common Nile Basin water resource.
Within the NELSAP, Planning for water use is carried out on the basis of river basins or sub
basins. On the other hand, land use is usually computed or planned according to political
boundaries. The study will therefore determine the irrigation potential of the proposed countries
considering the physical resources of 'soil' and 'water', combined with the irrigation water
requirements as determined by the cropping patterns and climate. This will inform the
subsequent preparation process and resource mobilization for the preparation phase.
The general objective of the study is to assess the irrigation potential of seven Nile Countries
(Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda, Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda) in order to fill
gaps in the NBI and member country information bases on agriculture water use. This
assignment will be carried out under the RATP project, with the support of NELSAP and the
Directorate of Irrigation in the Ministries in charge of Water and Irrigation in the seven countries.
The specific objectives of the study are to: (i) determine the irrigation potential of the proposed
countries considering the physical resources of 'soil' and 'water', combined with the irrigation
water requirements as determined by the cropping patterns and climate; (ii) provide a
preliminary assessment of probable environmental and socioeconomic constraints to be
considered to ensure sustainable use of physical resources within the Nile basin, as well as (iii)
an indication of required resources for the preparation and investment phase. The study can be
categorized as preparation for a development program.
10
( Resear!h Area and )ain Issues
3.1 Overview
1,2
The Nile River Basin is probably one of the worlds most famous river basins (Figure 1). There
is a fascination about the Nile River which has captured human imagination throughout history.
Some five thousand years ago a great civilization emerged depending on the river and its
annual flooding cycle. The Nile is one of the world longest rivers, flowing south to north 6,850
kilometers, over 35 degrees of latitude. Its catchment basin covers approximately 10% of the
African continent, with an area of about 3,100 km
2
, and spreads over 10 countries (Table 2)
2
.
The Nile is distinguished from other great rivers of the world by the fact that half of its course
flows through countries with no effective rainfall (Table 1). Almost all the water of the Nile is
generated on an area covering only 20 percent of the basin, while the remainder is in arid or
semi-arid regions where the water supply is minimal and where evaporation and seepage
losses are very large.
The shape of the Nile we know today is complex and is the result of the interconnection of
several independent basins by rivers which developed during the last wet period which affected
Africa after the retreat of the ice of the last glacial age, some 10,000 years ago. The basins
which constitute part of the present river were disconnected, forming internal lakes. At times
when the climate was wet, they overflowed their banks and became connected to other basins.
At other times, when the climate was very dry, they ebbed, shrank into saline pools or dried
altogether. The basins stand out in the longitudinal section of the river, as flat stretches or
landings with very little slope, which are connected today with rivers, which have considerably
steeper slopes (Sutcliffe, 2009)
Table 1. Worlds Major River Systems
2
Source: UNEP, 2000.
1
This section is derived from various sources and is included as generic background
2
Numbers mentioned in this Inception Report are all taken from exi sting references. Some inconsistency in numbers
might therefore occur, which will be clarified and verified during the project.
11
Table 2. Countries in Nile Basin
1
1
Source: CIA World Factbook, 1999.
2
Source: FAO, 1997.
The basin of the Nile is characterized by the existence of two mountainous plateaus rising some
thousands of meters above mean sea level. The Equatorial or Lake Plateau in the southern part
of the Nile basin (Figure 3), situated between the two branches of the Great Rift, is at a level of
1,000 to 2,000 meters and has peaks of 5,100 and 4,300 meters. This plateau contains Lakes
Victoria, George, Edward (Mobutu Sese Seko) and Albert, which slope gently toward the north
at an average rate of one meter for every 20 to 50 km of stretch. In contrast the rivers which
connect these lakes fall at an average rate of one meter every kilometer or less of length.
The Ethiopian or Abyssinian Plateau, which forms the eastern part of the basin, has peaks
rising to 3,500 meters. North of the Lake plateau the basin descends gradually to the Sudan
plains where the Nile runs at altitudes lower than 500 m in its northerly direction. About 200 km
south of the Egyptian border the river cuts its channel in a narrow trough bounded from each
side by the contour line of 200 m ground surface level. Almost 200 km before discharging into
the sea, the river bifurcates and its two branches encompass the Nile Delta. The enormous
Sudd and Central Sudan basins extend for a distance of 1,800 km from Juba to Khartoum and
form a gently sloping region with a small rate of slope of one meter for every 24 kilometers of
stretch.
The basin of the present-day Nile can be divided into six major regions: the Lake Plateau, the
Sudd, the White Nile, the Ethiopian Plateau, the Main Nile and the Nile Delta.
3.2 Irrigation potential
2
Both Burundi and Rwanda are characterized by a rolling topography with a continuous pattern
of hills and valleys, with lakes and marshy lowlands at the bottom of the valleys. Improving the
drainage network in part of the swamp areas, combined where possible with an irrigation
1
Note that figures might vary slightly from source to source and here the original numbers are presented.
2
Summarized from FAO 1997
12
network, would allow year-round cultivation, which is important for these small, but very densely
populated countries. The total area of these valley bottoms in the Nile basin is estimated at
105,000 ha for Burundi and 150,000 ha for Rwanda (FAO, 1997).
For Tanzania the irrigation potential has been estimated at 30,000 ha, but this would require the
construction of considerable water conveyance works. In addition to this, at the beginning of the
century settlers from Germany, the then colonial power in the country, proposed a plan to
transfer water from Lake Victoria to the Vembere Plateau in the Manonga River basin in central
Tanzania to irrigate between 88,000 and 230,000 ha of cotton. Though this project is still on the
table, it would be very expensive. The transfer would be affected by gravity as the plateau lies
below the water level of the lake (FAO, 1997).
The Lake Victoria basin in Kenya covers only 8.5% of the total area of the country but it
contains over 50% of the national freshwater resources. The national water master plan
identified an irrigation potential of 180,000 ha based on 80% dependable flow. As part of the
plan, dams and water transfers to other (sub) basins are proposed. At present only about 6,000
ha are irrigated. Moreover, in Kenya there has been lengthy debate as to whether, given
adequate technology, Lake Victoria basin water should be transferred to arid areas of the
country for irrigation. It is considered that perhaps the most appropriate location for such an
experiment would be the Kerio Valley (located in the Rift Valley), for which a special
development authority has been established by the Kenyan Parliament. The feasibility of such a
project is a question of engineering and several observers consider it possible. Such an
undertaking would use significant quantities of water (FAO, 1997).
The Nile basin in DRC covers less than 1% of the area of the country. The area is hilly and does
not really lend itself to irrigation. This area is rather densely populated with most people
engaged in cattle rearing and fishery activities around Lake Albert. It is considered that about
10,000 ha could be developed for irrigation (FAO, 1997).
Uganda has large swamp areas covering about 700,000 ha. The irrigation potential is estimated
at 202,000 ha, requiring, however, major works such as storage, river regulation and large-scale
drainage. At present only 5,550 ha are irrigated (FAO, 1997).
Irrigation potential in Sudan has been estimated at over 4.8 million hectares, but this figure
does not take into consideration the available water resources. The irrigated area was about 1.6
million hectares in 1979 and 1.9 million hectares in 1990. There are plans to increase irrigation
to about 2.8 million hectares by the year 2000, almost all to be irrigated by Nile water (FAO,
1997).
A more detailed description of the individual countries is provided in the Appendix.
13
Figure 1: Overview Nile Basin.
14
Figure 2: Overview study area.
Tanzania
Kenya
Southern Sudan
Uganda
Rwanda
Burundi
Eastern DR Congo
0 20 40 60 80 10
Kilometers
Burundi
Legend
Water
Nile
Roads
Nile basin
Borders
major town
Capital
Height in m
High : 2400
Low : 600
77
10.1.6 Summarized facts
The following Figures and Table give a quick overview of some key facts regarding agriculture
and irrigation in the country. All data are based on FAOstat and AquaStat.
Figure 14: Agricultural area and arable land in Burundi.
Figure 15: Agricultural production in Burundi.
Table 8: Area equipped for irrigation in Burundi.
Burundi ha
1965 14,000
1975 14,000
1985 14,000
1995 18,000
2005 23,000
Burundi
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
7
1
9
7
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78
10.2 Eastern DRC
1
10.2.1 General
The Democratic Republic of Congo (Figure 16) is the third largest country in Africa after Sudan
and Algeria. The country lies on the southwestern fringes of the Nile Basin, and the Nile portion
constitutes less than 2% of the national land area. It contributes to flow into the equatorial lakes
region, lying along the border with Uganda. DRC has a vast central basin in a low-lying plateau
with mountains in the east. In order to distinguish it from the neighboring Republic of Congo to
the west, the Democratic Republic of Congo is often referred to as DRC. The DRC borders the
Central African Republic and Sudan to the north, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi in the east,
Zambia and Angola to the south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west, and it is separated from
Tanzania and Burundi by Lake Tanganyika in the east. The Democratic Republic of Congo has
a total area of 2,344,585 km
2
, of which 2,267,048 km
2
is occupied by land, and 77,810 km
2
is
occupied by water. Current estimates of the countrys population are 71.7 million.
10.2.2 Socio-economy
Agriculture occupies an important place in the economy of the DRC. It contributed to 58% of
GDP in 2002 against 35% in 1985 and less than 10% in the 1970s. But since then, exports of
cash crops have plummeted. The agricultural sector provides a living for 70% of the population
since the year 2002 against 63% in 2000.
The largest economic activity still occurs in the informal sector. Renewed activity in the mining
sector, the source of the most export income, boosted a GDP growth from 2006-2008. The
governments review of mining contracts that began in 2006, however, combined with a fall in
world market prices for the DRCs key mineral exports temporally weakened output in 2009,
leading to a balance of payment crisis. The recovery of mineral prices, beginning in mid-2009,
boosted mineral exports, and emergency funds from the IMF boosted foreign reserves.
The country faces several issues: water pollution, deforestation, soil erosion, wildlife poaching,
and mining of minerals, which cause significant environmental damage.
10.2.3 Climate
The climate in the DRC is hot and humid in the equatorial river basin, and cooler and drier in the
southern highlands. North of the Equator we have a wet season (April-October) and a dry
season (December-February). South of the Equator we also have a wet season (November-
March), and a dry season (April-October).
According to Iessime (2007), the country is divided into three agro-climatic zones: equatorial,
tropical wet, and mountain climate. A summary of these agro-climatic zones is represented in
Table 9.
1
This section is based on Iessime (2007).
79
Table 9: Agro-climatic zones in DRC (Iessime, 2007).
10.2.4 Agriculture and main crops
In DRC, food crops and vegetables are currently the bulk of agricultural productions through
small farm families grouped in community associations located in rural, urban and sub-urban
areas. Yields and crop production are low and the country depends on imports of food products
to cover domestic needs. The low development rate of irrigable land resources, whose potential
reaches over 7 million hectares, is one of the major factors in the persistence of low levels of
agricultural production in the DRC. The lack of mastering the techniques of water harvesting
and irrigation during the rainy season declines the yields in agricultural production. Initiatives to
improve water retention of rainfall on rainfed upland agriculture are lacking in the DRC.
Currently the percentage of arable land in DRC is 2.9%. Permanent crops occupy an area of
0.5%. The main crops which are grown in DRC are: coffee, sugar, palm oil, rubber, tea, quinine,
cassava (tapioca), palm oil, bananas, root crops, corn, fruits, and wood products.
80
Figure 16: Map of Eastern DRC with the Nile basin.
Byumba
Ruhengeri
Nyagatare
Butiti
Gayaza
Ibanda
Kanoni Kasese
Kiboga
Kitoba
Kitoma
Masaka
Bushenyi
Kakumiro
Ntungamo
Hoima
Kabale
Masindi
Mbarara
Kabatoro
Kikagati
Kikungiri
Nyakibale
Fort Portal
0 30 60 90 120 15
Kilometers
Eastern DR Congo
Legend
Water
Nile
Roads
Nile basin
Borders
Height in m
High : 2400
Low : 600
Major town
Other town
81
10.2.5 Summarized Facts
The following Figures and Table give a quick overview of some key facts regarding agriculture
and irrigation in the country. All data are based on FAOstat and AquaStat.
Figure 17: Agricultural area and arable land in DR Congo.
Figure 18: Agricultural production in DR Congo.
Table 10: Area equipped for irrigation in DR Congo.
DR Congo ha
1965 N/A
1975 N/A
1985 9,000
1995 11,000
2005 11,000
DR Congo
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
9
6
5
1
9
6
7
1
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6
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800
1000
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82
10.3 Kenya
1
10.3.1 General
Kenya (Figure 19) covers an area of 582,000 km
2
and has wide variations in climate, land
forms, geology, soils, and land use. Elevations range from sea level at the Indian Ocean to the
top of Mt. Kenya with snow at 5,200 MASL. The Nile basin in Kenya represents only 8.5% of the
total area of the country. This area, however, contains over 50% of the national freshwater
sources with four major rivers (Nzoia, Yala, Nyando and Sondu Miriu) draining directly into Lake
Victoria. The Mara River also drains into this lake, but runs through Tanzania.
Kenya is an agricultural country and depends entirely on agricultural production for subsistence
and socio-economic development. About two thirds of the land area in Kenya is in the arid and
semi-arid lands. The pressure exerted on the fragile ecosystems that characterize the arid and
semi-arid lands lead to severe land degradation. The agricultural sector faces the challenge of
producing food for a rapidly growing population. Most of the agricultural activities in Kenya are
rainfed and therefore the rainfall amount and distribution are vital components of agricultural
production systems. Agricultural activities contribute significantly to the economic growth and
GDP of Kenya. Compared to the other sectors of development, agriculture is the main
consumer of water. Due to increasing competition for water amongst other sectors, agriculture
is therefore expected to produce more crop per given volume of water if agricultural production
is to be sustained as a viable economic activity. There is therefore a dire need to improve water
use efficiency in irrigated agriculture.
10.3.2 Socio-economy
Agriculture in Kenya contributes directly to 26% of the GDP, and indirectly a further 27% of the
GDP through linkages with manufacturing, distribution, and other service-related sectors. The
sector produces the bulk of the country's food requirements in years of favorable weather. The
agricultural sector accounts for 80% of rural employment with women providing 75% of the labor
force. Agriculture contributes 60% of export earnings, 45% of annual Government revenue and
produces almost all the raw materials for agro-industries. With this important contribution,
development of the sector should have the greatest impact on the livelihood of the people.
Kenya is, however, largely arid and semi-arid (83%) with only 17% considered as medium and
high potential. Thus this limits the production potential and often leads to chronic deficits in
maize, wheat, rice, sugar and edible oils.
10.3.3 Climate and hydrography
The average annual rainfall in Kenya ranges from 250 to 2500 mm, while the average potential
evaporation ranges from less than 1200 to 2500 mm. The average annual temperature ranges
from 10 to 30C. From the total land area of 582,000 km
2
, only 16% is considered to be of high
potential for agriculture (Mburu, 2008). This high potential area receives over 1000 mm of
annual rainfall and accounts for less than 20% of the agricultural land. More than 50% of the
1
This section is based on Mburu ( 2008)and Sijali (2007)
83
countrys population lives in this area. The medium potential area receives between 750 and
1000 mm of rainfall per annum. This area occupies 35% of the agricultural land and carries 30%
of the total population. The remaining part of Kenya (80%) is classified as arid and semi-arid
land with mean annual rainfall of less than 750 mm, carrying 20% of the total population. These
numbers show that the country is poorly endowed with potential for rain-fed agriculture. The
future growth and development of the agricultural sector will rely on integrated water resources
management that encompasses water harvesting and irrigation.
The land potential in Kenya can be based on agro-climatic zones or agro-ecological zones.
Agro-climatic zoning is based on rainfall amount and distribution and temperature. The main
agro-climatic zones are based on their probability of meeting the temperature and water
requirements of the main leading crops. There are many different rainfall distribution types in
Kenya which make it difficult to produce a detailed agro-climatic zone classification to cater for
all variations in rainfall and temperature. There are seven main agro-climatic zones in Kenya
according to Mburu (2008), based on the average monthly rainfall and potential
evapotranspiration.
10.3.4 Agriculture and main crops
The humid, sub-humid and semi-humid areas are mainly above 1,500 MASL and are
characterized by intensive farming for cash and subsistence. Large farms and estates with
tractor mechanization coexist with small holdings using oxen or hand labor. Major crops include
tea, coffee, maize, wheat, cut flowers, vegetables, fruits, sugarcane, beans and bananas. High
grade dairy cattle are common in these areas but are often stall fed due to shortage of land for
grazing. Improved breeds of sheep, pigs and poultry are also found in these high potential
areas. The main forest areas, both indigenous and planted, are found above 1,500 MASL but
occupy less than 3% of Kenyas land area. The semi-arid areas are characterized by mixed
crop and livestock farming whereas the arid and very arid areas are associated with pastoralism
and wildlife. Crops grown in the semi-arid areas include maize, sorghum, millet, beans, cow
peas, pigeon peas and irrigated vegetables. Cotton and sisal are sometimes grown. The arid
and semi-arid lands support 35% of Kenyas cattle, 67% of sheep and goats and all camels.
Irrigation is practiced on a relatively small but increasing scale depending on water availability.
The agriculture in Kenya is characterized into smallholdings, medium holdings and large
holdings (Table 11). The high and medium potential areas continue to be devoted to intensive
crop and milk production systems. Small-scale farming is mainly practiced in the high and
medium potential areas and accounts for 75% of the total agricultural output and 70% of the
marketed agricultural produce. Small-scale farmers produce over 70% of maize, 65% of coffee,
50% of tea, 65% of sugar-cane, 80% of milk, 70% of beef and related products, and almost
100% of the other food crops (millet, sorghum, pulses, vegetables, roots and tubers) (Isaya,
2007). Smallholdings, defined as agricultural land between 0.2 ha and 10 ha in size, occupy 3.2
million ha (46% of the total agricultural land) and accommodate 3.5 million households (98% of
the total farm households). The average size of smallholdings is 0.9 ha.
Kenyas large-scale farming is practiced on farms averaging 50 hectares. The large scale sub
sector accounts for 30% of marketed produce and is mainly involved in growing crops such as
tea, coffee, horticultural produce, maize and wheat.
84
Table 11: Agricultural land sizes in Kenya (Isaya, 2007).
85
Figure 19: Map of Kenya with the Nile basin.
Lira
Jinja
Mbale
Kitgum
Soroti
Tororo
Voi
Molo
Gazi
Embu
Nyeri
Kisii
Thika
Nakuru
Magadi
Kitale
Kisumu
Kilifi
Gilgil
Nanyuki
Nairobi
Mombasa
Malindi
Kericho
Kajiado
Eldoret Bungoma
Naivasha
Machakos
Kakamega
Elburgon
Matondoni
Athi River
Mwaluvanga
0 20 40 60 80 10
Kilometers
Rwanda
Legend
Water
Nile
Roads
Nile basin
Borders
Height in m
High : 2400
Low : 600
Major town
Other town
90
10.4.5 Summarized Facts
The following Figures and Table give a quick overview of some key facts regarding agriculture
and irrigation in the country. All data are based on FAOstat and AquaStat.
Figure 23: Agricultural area and arable land in Rwanda.
Figure 24: Agricultural production in Rwanda.
Table 14: Area equipped for irrigation in Rwanda.
Rwanda ha
1965 4,000
1975 4,000
1985 4,000
1995 5,000
2005 9,000
Rwanda
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1
9
6
1
1
9
6
3
1
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6
5
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10.5 Sudan
1
10.5.1 General
Sudan (Figure 25) is the largest country in Africa with an area of 250 million hectares and a
population of around 35 million, living on 15% of the land mainly around the Nile and its
tributaries. Sudan holds 60% of the Nile basin within its borders.
The sum of the internal and external water resources available to Sudan is about 30 BCM. This
shows that Sudan is already below the water stress margin of 1000 m
3
per capita. The actual
per capita consumption is much less than 1000 m
3
as the water used fluctuates between 14 and
18 BCM out of the 30 BCM. This is mainly because of the varying nature of rain and flow of the
Nile and the non-Nile streams coupled with limited available storage capacities, which are
continuously decreasing by silt accumulation. The annual projections of water consumption in
Sudan are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Annual projection of water consumption (in BCM) in Sudan in 2003 (Salih,
2007).
In Sudan, many irrigation schemes have the entire infrastructure, but their cropping intensity is
very low because of scarcity of water during the long dry season. Heightening of Roseires Dam,
which is currently slowly executed from the country's financial resources, is supposed to avail
such water. The current situation is that irrigated agriculture consumes about 94% of the water,
5% goes to human and animal consumption and 1% to industrial and other uses.
Watershed degradation and sedimentation is a current issue in Sudan. Watershed degradation
mainly resulted from the clearance of vast areas of forested lands for cultivation, fuel wood,
brick making, and over grazing. Silt deposition in the Blue Nile and Atbara Rivers has interfered
with their flow regimes. Bank erosion along the rivers has contributed to increased
sedimentation elsewhere. Another issue is that Sudan has experienced many devastating
floods and droughts during the last two decades.
10.5.2 Socio-economy
Although production and export of oil are growing significantly in importance, agriculture still
remains the major source of income for most of the countrys population, whereas 70% of them
live in rural areas. This makes millions of people in the country directly dependent on natural
resources for their livelihood and employment. In the period 2002-2006, agriculture contributed
between 39% and 46% to GDP, employed 57% of the total economically active population, and
1
This section is based on Dawelbeit (2008) and Salih (2008).
92
contributed about 90% of the non-oil export earnings. Within the agricultural sector, crop
production accounts for 53% of agricultural output, livestock 38% and forestry and fisheries 9%.
The most salient features of agricultural production in Sudan are low productivity, low value of
crops, high fluctuation in areas and low water use efficiency.
10.5.3 Relief, climate, and hydrography
Sudan is characterized by its high climatic and ecological diversity, ranging from no rain desert
in the north to high rainfall humid areas in the south. The country is a gently sloping plain with
the exception of Jebel Marra in the West, the Red Sea Hills in the East, Nuba Mountains in the
center and Imatong Hills in the South. Its main features are the alluvial clay deposits in the
central and eastern, the stabilized sand dunes in the western and northern part and the red
ironstone soils in the south.
Annual rainfall ranges from less than 50 mm in the north, 350800 mm in the central clay plains
and savannah belt to more than 1500 mm in West Equatorial region in the south. The main
rainy or monsoon season is from June to September but the duration will vary with latitude. In
the south, there are two rainy seasons.
There are six agro-climatic zones in Sudan (Dawelbeit, 2008). These include: desert, semi-
desert, low rain savanna, high rain savanna, flood, and mountain zones. Details of these zones
can be found in Dawelbeit (2008).
10.5.4 Agriculture, land use, and main crops
Land is by far the most important resources for over 80% of the population who live in rural
areas for farming and herding. The arable land constitutes one third of the country area. Pasture
and forest accounts 40% of the total land. Nearly 84 million hectares are cultivable. Only about
10% of this is currently utilized for agriculture. Because a large portion of these cultivated lands
depend on rainfall, the amount actually cultivated in any particular year can greatly vary due to
fluctuations in rainfall. Only 21% of the total arable land is under cultivation. Both annual and
perennial crops are grown over a wide range of climatic conditions. The occupied areas of
arable land by farming sector are shown in Table 16. The major crops grown in Sudan are
sorghum, cotton, wheat, sugarcane, and gum Arabic.
Table 16: Total arable land by farming sector in Sudan (Dawelbeit, 2008).
93
Figure 25: Map of Sudan with the Nile basin.
Juba
Uwayl
Torit
Rumbek
Yambio
Malakal
0 40 80 120 160 20
Kilometers
Uganda
Height in m
High : 3500
Low : 500
Legend
Water
Nile
Roads
Nile basin
Borders
Major town
Other town
102
10.7.5 Summarized Facts
The following Figures and Table give a quick overview of some key facts regarding agriculture
and irrigation in the country. All data are based on FAOstat and AquaStat.
Figure 32: Agricultural area and arable land in Uganda.
Figure 33: Agricultural production in Uganda.
Table 19: Area equipped for irrigation in Uganda.
Uganda ha
1965 3,000
1975 4,000
1985 9,000
1995 9,000
2005 9,000
Uganda
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
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%% A""endi63 PCRaster71E4mod
11.1 Hydrological modeling
A huge number of hydrological models exits, applications are growing rapidly and a relevant
question for hydrological model studies is therefore related to appropriate model selection. An
important issue to consider here is the continuum between physical detail and spatial scale. In
general it can be stated that the larger the spatial scale the less physical detail is included
(Figure 34). A field scale model that aims at simulation crop growth, water transport through he
unsaturated zone, percolation to the groundwater and atmosphere land surface interaction
requires a lot of data and is computational intensive and can therefore only be applied at the
field scale. If one wants to study for example the impact of climate change at the continental
scale, then different algorithms are used which are less data intensive. If we consider irrigation
schemes, then we are looking at the spatial scale of a system (Figure 34), which has more
detail than modeling at the basin scale, but less detail than modeling at the field scale.
Figure 34: Relation between spatial scale and physical detail. The green ellipses show
the position of different models.
Besides these important considerations there are a number of other factors influencing the
choice of the model such as the availability of source code, documentation, support, user
friendliness, and inclusion of crucial processes relevant to a particular study (see reference list).
Hydrological models use input data that have, by definition, inaccuracies. These input data or
parameters must be estimated for a given catchment and for each computational segment of
the model. They must be estimated either by some relationship with physical characteristics or
by tuning the parameters so that model response approximates observed response, a process
known as calibration. The process of model calibration is quite complex because of limitations
of the models and especially of data. An example of a limitation is the mathematical description
that can be imperfect and/or the understanding of the phenomenon may not be complete.
Another example of model limitations is that the mathematical parameters used in models to
represent real processes are often uncertain because these parameters are empirically
determined or represent multiple processes. Also the initial conditions and boundary conditions
in a model may not be known. These model limitations, together with the input and output data
104
limitations, and ability to express quantitatively our preferences for how best to fit the models to
the data. As a result of these limitations, it is even not clear that a unique set of values exists for
the model parameters for a given watershed.
The use of remote sensing in hydrological modeling is a growing field and proves to be highly
relevant, especially in areas where data are scarce, unreliable or unusable. This situation is
regularly encountered in many areas across the world in developing countries. Obviously,
groundtruthing is an important aspect of quality and will in general improve accuracy of the data.
Remote sensing provides objective and continuous information on relevant variables and could
provide a solution for this issue. As far as the link with models is concerned a distinction should
be made in applications aimed at model parameterization and in applications aiming at model
calibration. Remotely sensed parameterization is more common, and could for example include
land cover classification, inclusion of digital elevation model in catchment delineation, use of
vegetation indices to derive surface roughness and the use of precipitation radar data as input
to a model. In the current study we will use a combination of remote sensing data, global data
and local data to calibrate our model.
For the assessment of the irrigation potential in in Burundi, Eastern DRC, Kenya, Rwanda,
Southern Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda a hydrological model will be used and a number of
criteria are important in the selection of the model and these include:
The model should include a reasonable level of physical detail and include all major
hydrological processes at the basin and sub-basin scale at a level of data availability.
The model should be applied on a very large scale (~ 2.4 million km
2
).
The model should be run on a daily timescale.
The model should be fully distributed and raster based to provide as much detail as
possible.
There needs to be a clear link with continental and global public domain data sources
(climate forcing, land use and soil).
There needs to be a clear link with remote sensing datasets to calibrate and
parameterize the model.
The model needs to be user-friendly and in the public domain.
We will first describe the PCRaster model and previous applications and then provide a
justification for the use of the PC-Raster based approach.
11.2 PC-Raster
11.2.1 Introduction
The PCRaster Environmental Modeling Language
1
(Wesseling et al., 1996) is a computer
language for the construction of iterative spatial-temporal environmental models. The PCRaster
Environmental Modeling Language is developed at the department of physical geography of
Utrecht University in the Netherlands. A huge advantage of PCRaster is that it is open source
software, and therefore enables its user to easily change or extend the model code to satisfy
1
http://pcraster.geo.uu.nl/
105
the users wishes as will be done for the current study. One hydrological model which is
successful applied in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries, and written in the
PCRaster language, is PCR-GLOBWB. This name stands for PCRaster Global Water Balance.
This model is developed at the department of physical geography of Utrecht University in the
Netherlands with the explicit aim to simulate terrestrial hydrology at macro-scales, under various
land use and climate conditions, with a temporal resolution of one to several days (Van Beek,
2009). FutureWater successfully applied this model in the MENA region to assess the water
availability under climate change (Immerzeel et al., 2011). An example of the model output is
given in Figure 35. Immerzeel et al. (2010) also successfully applied this model in Asia with the
aim to assess future water availability in large Asian river basins in relation to food security.
Figure 35: Example of output of PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model output, in this case
the internal renewable water resources based on the 2000-2009 climatology in the MENA
region (Immerzeel et al., 2011).
For the water resources assessment in the MENA study, PCR-GLOBWB was set-up at a spatial
resolution of 10 km. This resolution of 10 km was considered by World Bank as very high given
that previous studies focused often on basin, country or sub-basin level only. Moreover, this
high resolution over such a large area was only possible given that the normal restriction of data
was partly overcome by using remotely sensed data.
For the current study model result of NELmod will be at a resolution of 250m. This resolution
can be obtained by running the NELmod model at a spatial resolution of 1 km and resample the
results using the 250m DEM to the final output resolution of 250 m.
11.2.2 Previous applications
In addition to the above he PC-Raster based hydrological model has been applied successfully
in a number of cases under varying conditions and the results have been published in top
scientific journals:
Bierkens and van Beek (2009) have applied the model in Europe and they have
developed a seasonal prediction systems for river discharge based on the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and anomalies in sea surface temperature.
Loos et al. (2009) use a PC Raster based hydrological model to assess nutrient and
sediment loads for the Rhine river basin and they show that this can be simulated with a
relaive high degree of accuracy.
106
Sperna Weiland et al. (2010) test the usefulness of GCM data for hydrological studies,
with focus on discharge variability and extremes using bias-corrected daily climate data
from a selection of twelve GCMs as input to the global hydrological model.
Petrescu et al. (2010) use the hydrological model in upscaling methane emission of
boreal and arctic wetlands.
Wada et al. (2010) map global groundwater depletion and assess how much this
contributes to global sea level rise.
11.2.3 Discretization
The optimal model resolution is a tradeoff between the detail of the available input data, the
desired output resolution, the physical detail of the model, and the calculation time. In general,
resolution of data availability is the limiting factor. Given these constraints and previous
experiences for World Bank, ADB and EU, results will be presented at a resolution of 250 m.
The NELmod model will run on a resolution of 1 km and results will be resampled to 250 m
using the DEM.
11.2.4 Model concept
The model concept as will be used in our hydrological model is represented in Figure 36. In the
remainder of this study we will refer to this model as NELmod. NELmod simulates the most
direct pathways of water that reaches the earth surface back to the open water (streams, ponds,
and lakes) or atmosphere; within each cell precipitation in the form of rain or snow either falls on
soil or in open water surface. Additional specific cell features can be added if necessary. If there
is a pumping station in a specific area for example, then this can be implemented into that grid
cell. The left side of Figure 36 shows the soil compartment, which is divided in the two upper
two soil (root zone and sub-soil layer) stores and the third groundwater store, and their
corresponding drainage components: direct runoff (QDR), subsurface flow (QSf) (drainage) and
base flow (QBf). In the center of the figure, the resulting discharge along the channel
(QChannel) with lateral inflow is depicted. Any precipitation that falls on the soil surface can be
intercepted by vegetation and in part or in whole evaporated. A part of the liquid precipitation is
transformed in direct or surface runoff, whereas the remainder infiltrates into the soil. The
resulting soil moisture is subject to soil evaporation when the surface is bare and to
transpiration when vegetated. A certain amount of moisture in the root zone will contribute to
subsurface flow, also known as drainage. The remaining part will percolate to the sub-soil layer.
The sub-soil moisture content can recharge the groundwater layer, or it can be used for
capillary rise to the root zone. Water used for recharge of the groundwater layer will eventually
exit the layer as baseflow.
107
Figure 36: Hydrological model concept as will be used in this study.
Runoff
Liquid water passed on to the soil surface will infiltrate if sufficient storage capacity is available,
else it will drain over the surface as direct runoff. Following the concept developed by Zhao
(1977) and Todini (1996), the partitioning into infiltration and direct runoff is dependent on the
degree of saturation and the distribution of available storage in the soil. In other words, if the
root water volume exceeds the saturation volume, then the part that exceeds the saturation
volume becomes runoff. This is shown in the following equation:
Runo = mox(Rootwotcr -RootSot, u)
Where: Runoff = Runoff on a specific day [mm];
RootWater = Moisture in root zone on a specific day [mm];
RootSat = Saturated root water volume [mm];
Actual evapotranspiration ETact
The amount of water which evaporates from a grid cell can be either bare soil evaporation, or
transpiration from a crop. Water from bare soil or open water will evaporate at the potential rate.
For vegetated areas, however, the situation will be different. Each type of crop will have a
different rate of potential evapotranspiration (ETpot), depending on the crop factor and ETref
(reference evapotranspiration). If the soil becomes too wet, then the roots cannot breathe and
as a result there will be a reduction in potential evapotranspiration, known as the actual
transpiration. The same is true for too dry conditions. If the soil is too dry, then the crop will
reduce its transpiration because there is a stress situation. Therefore the model incorporates an
evapotranspiration reduction for too wet and too dry conditions. These are shown in the
following two equations:
EIrcJuctionwct = i(Rwotcr > RootSot tbcn u clsc 1)
108
Where: ETreductionWet = Reduction for wet conditions [-];
RWater = Moisture in root zone on a specific day [mm];
RSat = Saturated root water volume [mm];
EIrcJuctionry1 = (Rwotcr -Rry)(Rwilt -Rry)
EIrcJuctionry2 = mox(min(EIrcJuctionry1,1), u)
Where: ETreductionDry1 = Reduction for dry conditions [-];
RWater = Moisture in root zone on a specific day [mm];
RDry = Permanent wilting point [mm];
RWilt = Wilting point [mm];
ETreductionDry2 = Final reduction for dry conditions [-];
Then the actual evapotranspiration will be calculated as follows:
EIoct = EIpot - EIrcJuctionwct - EIrcJuctionry2
Where: ETact = Actual evapotranspiration [mm] on a specific day;
ETpot = Potential evapotranspiration [mm] on a specific day;
Infiltration
As mentioned before the amount of precipitation is added to the root zone. A part of that will
leave the grid cell as runoff, and another part evaporates into the air. The remaining part
(RootWater Runoff ETact) stays in the root zone and can be seen as the updated root water
moisture content. This can be seen as the amount of water which has infiltrated into the root
zone. Not all the infiltrated water in the root zone will stay in the root zone. A certain amount of
this water will leave the grid cell as subsurface flow, also known as drainage, and another
amount of this water will percolate to the sub-soil layer.
Drainage
Drainage will only be significant in areas with soils having high hydraulic conductivities and
significant slopes. Drainage in the NELmod follows the concept of a kinematic storage model for
subsurface flow developed by Sloan et al. (1983) and summarized by Sloan and Moore (1984).
This model simulates subsurface flow in a two-dimensional cross-section along a flow path
down a steep hillslope. This model is based on the mass continuity equation, with the entire
hillslope used as the control volume. The excess from the root zone is considered whenever the
root zone water content exceeds the root zones field capacity:
Rwcxccss = Rwotcr - RFiclJCop if RWater > RFieldCap
Rwcxccss = u if RWater <= RFieldCap
Where: RWexcess = Drainable volume of water in the root zone [mm];
RWater = Moisture in root zone on a specific day [mm];
RFieldCap = Field capacity of root zone [mm];
Then the lateral volume at the hillslope outlet is given by:
lot = E
0
- :
Iut
109
Where: Qlat = Net drainage at hillslope outlet [mm];
H0 = Saturated thickness normal to the hillsope at the outlet
expressed as a fraction of (RootSat FieldCap) [-];
vl at = Velocity of flow at the outlet [mm/d];
The velocity of flow at the outlet is defined as:
:
Iut
= K
sut
- slp
Where: vl at = Velocity of flow at the outlet [mm/d];
Ksat = Saturated hydraulic conductivity [mm/d] of root zone;
slp = Slope as the increase in elevation per unit distance [-];
In large sub-basins with a time of concentration greater than one day, only a portion of drainage
will reach the main channel on the day it is generated. Therefore a drainage flow lag is
incorporated in the NELmod. So once the lateral volume is calculated, the amount of drainage
released to the main channel is calculated as:
roinogc
= __1 -cxp [
-1
Root11
] - lot_ +[cxp [
-1
Root11
- roinogc
-1
Where: Drainagei = Drainage [mm] on day i;
RootTT = Lateral flow travel time [d];
Qlat = Lateral volume generated on day I;
Drainagei -1 = Drainage [mm] on day i-1;
The travel time of lateral flow is calculated as:
RootII =
RSut-RPcIdCup
Ksut
Where: RootTT = Travel time of lateral flow [d];
RSat = Saturated root water volume [mm];
RFieldCap = Field capacity of root zone [mm];
Ksat = Saturated hydraulic conductivity [mm/d] of root zone;
Percolation
Percolation occurs from the root zone to the sub-soil (second layer), and from the sub-soil into
the groundwater store. Percolation from the root zone to the second soil layer is only allowed if
the water content in the root zone exceeds the field capacity of the root zone and the sub-soil
layer does not have a seasonal high water table. The equation for root water excess is already
shown earlier on page 109. Then the amount of percolation from the root zone to the sub-soil
layer is:
RPcrc = i _Swotcr (SFiclJCop +u.S - (SSot -SFiclJCop)) tbcn u clsc Rwcxccss -
_1 - cxp[
-1
Root11
]_
Where: Rperc = Water percolating to the sub-soil layer [mm];
SWater = Water content of sub-soil layer [mm];
SFieldCap = Field capacity of sub-soil layer [mm];
SSat = Saturated sub-soil water volume [mm];
110
RWexcess = Drainable volume of water in the root zone [mm];
RootTT = Travel time of flow in root zone [d];
The equation for RootTT was shown before on page 110.
Percolation from the sub-soil to the groundwater layer is only allowed if the groundwater store
water content is lower than the saturated content of the groundwater store. Then percolation is
calculated as:
Spcrc = i _0wotcr 0Sot tbcn u clsc _Swotcr - _1 - cxp[
-1
Sub11
]__
Where: Sperc = Water percolating to the groundwater layer [mm];
GWater = Water content of the groundwater layer [mm];
GSat = Saturated groundwater store volume [mm];
SubTT = Travel time of flow in sub-soil layer [d];
The travel time of flow in the sub-soil layer is calculated as:
SubII =
SSut-SPcIdCup
Ksut
Where: SubTT = Travel time of flow in sub-soil layer [d];
SSat = Saturated sub-soil water volume [mm];
SFieldCap = Field capacity of sub-soil layer [mm];
Groundwater
The third store of the soil compartment represents the deeper part of the soil that is exempt
from any direct influence of vegetation and constitutes a groundwater reservoir fed by active
recharge. The water balance of the groundwater store is as follows:
0wotcr
= 0wotcr
-1
+0w
chg
-
b
-0w
cup
- 0w
pump
Where: GWateri = groundwater storage on day i [mm]
GWateri -1 = groundwater storage on day i-1 [mm]
GWrchrg = groundwater recharge on day i [mm]
Qb = baseflow on day i [mm]
GWrevap = water moving to sub-soil due to deficiencies [mm]
GWpump = water extracted from groundwater storage [mm]
The groundwater recharge depends on the recharge entering on the previous day and the
percolation exiting the sub-soil on the current day according to:
0w
chg,
= (1 -cxp|-1o
gw
]) - Spcrc +cxp_-
1
6
gw
_ - 0w
chg,-1
Where: gw = delay time over overlaying formations [days]
Sperc = percolation exiting from sub-soil [mm]
GWrchrg,i -1 = recharge entering groundwater store on day i-1 [mm]
Baseflow from the groundwater store is related to the recharge to this groundwater store. Finally
baseflow contributes to the total discharge from a grid cell. Baseflow is calculated as follows:
111
b,
=
b,-1
- cxp|-o
gw
- At] +0w
chg,
- (1 -cxp|-o
gw
- At])
Where: Q
b,I
= baseflow on day i [mm]
Q
b,i-1
= baseflow on day i-1 [mm]
gw
= baseflow recession coefficient [d
-1
]
t = time step [days]
GW
rchrg,I
= recharge to groundwater store on day i
The parameters in the equations above will determined during the calibration process.
Vegetation
NELmod is simulating plant growth and water uptake based on the well-known FAO-56
approach. For each land cover monthly Kc factors and rooting depths are defined and will be
used to calculate actual evapotranspiration and water shortage.
11.2.5 Model data
For every grid cell of the model data on the elevation, land use, soils and irrigation practices are
required and the model is driven by daily fields of precipitation, air temperature and reference
evapotranspiration. It is crucial that the forcing and parameterizations are derived in a
consistent and reproducible way for all countries and that it is similar for all NELSAP countries.
The delineation of the basins and sub-basins is described below.
Basin delineation
HYDRO1K
1
is a geographic database developed to provide comprehensive and consistent
global coverage of topographically derived data sets, including streams, drainage basins and
ancillary layers derived from the USGS 30 arc-second (~1 km) digital elevation model of the
world. HYDRO1K provides a suite of geo-referenced data sets, both raster and vector, which
will be of value for all users who need to organize, evaluate, or process hydrologic information
on sub-basin scale. The HYDRO1K dataset provides hydrological correct DEMs along with
ancillary data sets for use in continental and regional scale modeling and analyses. Based on
HYDRO1K, the basins and sub-basins in the 7 NEL countries within the Nile basin will be
delineated.
Model validation
The performance of NELmod will be evaluated by comparing the simulated streamflow with the
measured streamflow. Local and global data sources of measured streamflow will be used for
this. NELmod will be calibrated in order to achieve the most reliable model results.
1
http://eros.usgs.gov/#/Find_Data/Products_and_Data_Available/gtopo30/hydro
112
11.3 Conclusions
In the original proposal SWAT was proposed as hydrological model. However during the
inception phase the use the PC-Raster based hydrological model (NELmod) appeared to be
much more favourable for the following key reasons:
1. SWAT is a semi-distributed model and irregular hydrological response units are the
smallest unit of calculation, whereas NELmod is fully distributed at a high level of spatial
detail (1 km). All results of NELmod will be downscaled using DEM to a resolution of
250 m.
2. NELmod is grid based making interactions with Remote Sensing efficient. Moreover,
many other analysis for the study (soils, slopes, elevation, NDVI, precipitation,
population density) are also based on grids.
3. A SWAT model has a maximum of about 1000 and 2000 HRUs. This means that for the
current study area (~2.470 million km
2
) the level of detail will be only about 1235 km
2
. It
was therefore proposed by the Consultant to use PCRaster..
4. NELmod is highly efficient, public domain and all results are available in GIS format that
can easily be shared and distributed.
5. Over the last year three major studies for World Bank, ADB and EU has been executed
where clients asked specifically the use of PCRaster.
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