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Contents

Preface Abbreviations and conventions xv xvii

Introduction
Introduction. International security, armaments and disarmament
BATES GILL

3 3 5 11 15 15 18

I. Assessing the past year II. SIPRI Yearbook 2012: overview, themes and key ndings OverviewKey trends and ndings III. Looking ahead 1. Responding to atrocities: the new geopolitics of intervention
GARETH EVANS

I. The challenge of civilian protection II. New paradigms for a new century: protection of civilians and the responsibility to protect Protection of civilians in armed conictThe responsibility to protectThe relationship between protection of civilians and the responsibility to protect III. Libya and its aftermath: the limits of intervention? Implementing Resolution 1973: a case of overreach?The geopolitical environment after Libya: potential for a new consensus? IV. The future for civilian protection Criteria for the authorization of military forceMeasures falling short of coercive military interventionLong-term preventive strategiesDeveloping appropriate institutional response capacitiesRethinking the concept of national interest

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33

Part I. Security and conicts, 2011


2. Armed conict Overview
NEIL MELVIN

43 43 45

I. The rst year of the Arab Spring MARIE ALLANSSON, JONAS BAUMANN, SAMUEL TAUB, LOTTA THEMNR
AND PETER WALLENSTEEN

Domestic developmentsExternal involvementConclusions Table 2.1. The Arab Spring, 2011 46

vi SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012

II. Organized violence in the Horn of Africa JONAS BAUMANN, MARCUS NILSSON, LOTTA THEMNR AND
PETER WALLENSTEEN

57

Armed conict: the regional effects of Somalias instability One-sided violence: abuses in Ethiopias Somali RegionNon-state conicts: unrest in border areas Figure 2.1. Map of the Horn of Africa III. Patterns of organized violence, 200110
LOTTA THEMNR AND PETER WALLENSTEEN

58 65

Armed conictsNon-state conictsOne-sided violence Organized violence: a comparison Figure 2.2. Numbers of armed conicts, non-state conicts and one-sided violence, 200110 Figure 2.3. Average number of fatalities in non-state conicts, 200110 Figure 2.4. Subcategories of non-state conict, by region, 200110 Figure 2.5. Fatalities in one-sided violence, by type of actor, 200110 Figure 2.6. Fatalities, by category of organized violence, 200110 Table 2.2. Armed conicts in 2010 Table 2.3. Armed conict, by intensity, type and region, 200110 Table 2.4. Non-state conicts in 2010 Table 2.5. Non-state conict, by subcategory and region, 200110 Table 2.6. One sided-violence in 2010 Table 2.7. One-sided violence, by actor and region, 200110 Sources and methods IV. The Global Peace Index 2012
CAMILLA SCHIPPA AND THOMAS MORGAN

66 75 75 78 80 68 71 72 74 76 77 81 84 85 86 87 89 89 91 92 92

Table 2.8. Countries with the greatest change in Global Peace Index scores, 201112 Table 2.9. The Global Peace Index 2012 Sources and methods 3. Peace operations and conict management Overview
SHARON WIHARTA

I. Global trends in peace operations


CLAIRE FANCHINI

Figure 3.1. Number of multilateral peace operations, by type of conducting organization, 200211 Figure 3.2. Number of personnel deployed to multilateral peace operations, 200211

CONTENTS vii

Figure 3.3. The top 10 contributors of troops to multilateral peace operations, including and excluding the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, 2011 Figure 3.4. The top 10 contributors of civilian police to multilateral peace operations, 2011 II. New peace operations in 2011
CLAIRE FANCHINI

93 93 95

Sudan and South Sudan: the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan and the UN Interim Security Force for AbyeiLibya: NATOs Operation Unied Protector and the UN Support Mission in LibyaSyria: the Arab League Observer Mission to Syria Conclusions Figure 3.5. Map of South Sudan and Sudan III. Regional developments in peace operations
CLAIRE FANCHINI

96 106

AfricaThe AmericasAsia and OceaniaEuropeThe Middle East Table 3.1. Number of peace operations and personnel deployed, by region and type of organization, 2011 IV. Table of multilateral peace operations, 2011
CLAIRE FANCHINI

108 112 113 143

Table 3.2. Multilateral peace operations, 2011 Sources and methods

Part II. Military spending and armaments, 2011


4. Military expenditure Overview SAM PERLO-FREEMAN I. Global developments in military expenditure SAM PERLO-FREEMAN AND CARINA SOLMIRANO Table 4.1. Military expenditure by region, by international organization and by income group, 200211 Table 4.2. The 15 countries with the highest military expenditure in 2011 Table 4.3. Key military expenditure statistics by region, 2011 II. The economic cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars SAM PERLO-FREEMAN AND CARINA SOLMIRANO Table 4.4. Estimates of the costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars to selected participating states 147 147 149 150 152 153 156 160

viii SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012

III. The United States military spending and the 2011 budget crisis ELISABETH SKNS AND SAM PERLO-FREEMAN Table 4.5. US outlays for the Department of Defense and total national defence, nancial years 2001, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 201113 IV. Military expenditure in Africa
OLAWALE ISMAIL AND SAM PERLO-FREEMAN

162 164

167

Oil and counterterrorism in AlgeriaOil and counterterrorism in NigeriaDevelopments in other countries V. Europe and the impact of austerity on military expenditure SAM PERLO-FREEMAN The crisis countries of Southern EuropeThe implications of reduced spending Figure 4.1. Changes in military spending versus gross domestic product, Western Europe and Central Europe, 200811 VI. The reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations, 200211
NOEL KELLY

173

174 181

The United Nations reporting systemTrends in reporting, 200211The report of the Group of Governmental Experts Table 4.6. Number of countries reporting their military expenditure to the United Nations, 2002 and 200611 Table 4.7. Reporting of military expenditure data to the United Nations, by region and subregion, 2011 VII. Military expenditure data, 200211 SAM PERLO-FREEMAN, OLAWALE ISMAIL, NOEL KELLY, ELISABETH SKNS, CARINA SOLMIRANO AND HELEN WILANDH Table 4.8. Military expenditure by country, in local currency, 200211 Table 4.9. Military expenditure by country, in constant US dollars for 200211 and current US dollars for 2011 Table 4.10. Military expenditure by country as percentage of gross domestic product, 20022010 Sources and methods 5. Arms production and military services Overview SUSAN T. JACKSON 182 184 187

188 195 202 214 217 217

CONTENTS ix

I. Key developments in the main arms-producing countries SUSAN T. JACKSON The US National Defense Authorization Act for 2012 Acquisitions, spin-offs and sell-offs in the United StatesThe debate on arms industry cooperation in the European Union Diversication into cybersecurity Table 5.1. Arms sales of companies in the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies, 200210 Table 5.2. Selected cybersecurity acquisitions by OECD arms-producing and military services companies, 2011 II. The military services industry SUSAN T. JACKSON Military services companies in the SIPRI Top 100Developments in selected military services sub-sectorsConclusions Table 5.3. Military services companies in the SIPRI Top 100 for 2010 III. The Indian arms-production and military services industry SUSAN T. JACKSON AND MIKAEL GRINBAUM Indias arms industry structureIndias arms production frameworkIndias military services industryConclusions IV. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies, 2010 SUSAN T. JACKSON Table 5.4. Regional and national shares of arms sales for the SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies, 2010 compared to 2009 Table 5.5. The SIPRI Top 100 arms-producing and military services companies in the world excluding China, 2010 Sources and methods 6. International arms transfers Overview
PAUL HOLTOM

219

220 228 230

232 239

247

248 251 257 259 259 261

I. Developments in arms transfers in 2011 PAUL HOLTOM, MARK BROMLEY, PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND SIEMON T. WEZEMAN Major supplier developmentsRecipient developments Figure 6.1. The trend in international transfers of major conventional weapons, 200211 Table 6.1. The 10 largest suppliers of major conventional weapons and their destinations, by region, 200711

262 264

x SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012

Table 6.2. The 50 largest suppliers of major conventional weapons, 200711 Table 6.3. The 10 largest recipients of major conventional weapons and their suppliers, 200711 Table 6.4. The 50 largest recipients of major conventional weapons, 200711 Sources and methods II. Policies on exports of arms to states affected by the Arab Spring MARK BROMLEY AND PIETER D. WEZEMAN Table 6.5. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to states affected by the Arab Spring, 200711 III. The maritime dimension of arms transfers to South East Asia, 200711 SIEMON T. WEZEMAN Maritime security in South East AsiaArms transfers related to maritime security Figure 6.2. Map of South East Asia Table 6.6. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Viet Nam, 200711 IV. Arms transfers to Armenia and Azerbaijan, 200711
PAUL HOLTOM

266 270 272 273 275 276 280

282 281

286

ArmeniaAzerbaijan Figure 6.3. Map of Armenia and Azerbaijan Table 6.7. Suppliers of major conventional weapons to Armenia and Azerbaijan, 200711 V. Transparency in arms transfers
PAUL HOLTOM AND MARK BROMLEY

287 287 293

The United Nations Register of Conventional ArmsNational and regional reports on arms exports Figure 6.4. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, 200110 Table 6.8. Reports submitted to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, by region, 200610 Table 6.9. States participating in international, regional and national reporting mechanisms on arms transfers, 200911 VI. The nancial value of states arms exports, 200110
MARK BROMLEY

294 294 299 303 304

Table 6.10. The nancial value of states arms exports according to national government and industry sources, 200110

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7. World nuclear forces Overview SHANNON N. KILE Table 7.1. World nuclear forces, January 2012 I. US nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Nuclear modernizationNuclear strategy and planning Land-based ballistic missilesBallistic missile submarines Non-strategic nuclear weapons Table 7.2. US nuclear forces, January 2012 II. Russian nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, VITALY FEDCHENKO, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Strategic bombersLand-based ballistic missilesBallistic missile submarines and sea-launched ballistic missilesNon-strategic nuclear weapons Table 7.3. Russian nuclear forces, January 2012 III. British nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN The BritishFrench nuclear cooperation agreement Table 7.4. British nuclear forces, January 2012 IV. French nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Table 7.5. French nuclear forces, January 2012 V. Chinese nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Land-based ballistic missilesBallistic missile submarines Aircraft and cruise missiles Table 7.6. Chinese nuclear forces, January 2012 VI. Indian nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Strike aircraftLand-based missilesSea-based missiles Table 7.7. Indian nuclear forces, January 2012 VII. Pakistani nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Strike aircraftLand-based missiles Table 7.8. Pakistani nuclear forces, January 2012

307 307 308 309

310 315

316 322

324 325 326 327

328 332

334 337

338

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VIII. Israeli nuclear forces SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN Table 7.9. Israeli nuclear forces, January 2012 IX. North Koreas military nuclear capabilities SHANNON N. KILE, PHILLIP SCHELL AND HANS M. KRISTENSEN X. Global stocks and production of ssile materials, 2011
ALEXANDER GLASER AND ZIA MIAN

341 342 343 345 346 347 349 350

Table 7.10. Global stocks of highly enriched uranium (HEU), 2011 Table 7.11. Global stocks of separated plutonium, 2011 Table 7.12. Signicant uranium enrichment facilities and capacity worldwide, as of December 2011 Table 7.13. Signicant reprocessing facilities worldwide, as of December 2011

Part III. Non-proliferation, arms control and disarmament, 2011


8. Nuclear arms control and non-proliferation Overview SHANNON N. KILE I. RussianUS nuclear arms control SHANNON N. KILE Implementation of data exchanges, notications and inspections New START and missile defenceNext steps after New START Table 8.1. RussianUS nuclear arms reduction treaties force limits Table 8.2. Russian and US aggregate numbers of strategic offensive arms under New START, as of 5 February 2011 and 1 September 2011 II. Syria and nuclear proliferation concerns SHANNON N. KILE III. Iran and nuclear proliferation concerns SHANNON N. KILE The IAEAs assessment of alleged Iranian military nuclear activitiesNew US National Intelligence Estimate on IranIAEA Board of Governors resolution on IranStatus of Fordow enrichment plant IV. North Koreas nuclear programme SHANNON N. KILE 374 356 357 353 353 355

363 366

CONTENTS xiii

V. Developments in the Nuclear Suppliers Group


SIBYLLE BAUER

376

Revision of the guidelines for export of sensitive technology Other Nuclear Supplier Group discussions during 2011The future of nuclear export controls VI. International cooperation on non-proliferation, arms control and nuclear security SHANNON N. KILE UN Security Council Resolution 1977Extension of the Group of Eights Global Partnership programmeThe P5 states discussion of multilateral arms control 9. Reducing security threats from chemical and biological materials Overview
JOHN HART

387

391 391 393 397

I. Biological weapon arms control and disarmament


JOHN HART

II. Chemical weapon arms control and disarmament


JOHN HART

Destruction of chemical weaponsPolitical tension III. Allegations of chemical and biological weapon programmes
JOHN HART

406

North KoreaIran and LibyaSyria IV. Chemical and biological warfare prevention and response
JOHN HART

409

Scientic researchFuture implications of science and technology 10. Conventional arms control Overview
IAN ANTHONY

415 415 417

I. Limiting conventional arms for humanitarian reasons: the case of cluster munitions
LINA GRIP

The Fourth Review Conference of the Certain Conventional Weapons ConventionThe Convention on Cluster Munitions Prospects and challenges II. Limiting the military capabilities of others: developments in arms export control
MARK BROMLEY AND GLENN MCDONALD

425

Export control regimesThe European UnionRegional efforts to control small arms and light weapons in the Americas and

xiv SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012

EuropeThe United Nations Programme of Action on small arms and light weapons III. Multilateral arms embargoes PIETER D. WEZEMAN AND NOEL KELLY LibyaSyriaOther multilateral arms embargoesEmbargo violations Table 10.1. Multilateral arms embargoes in force during 2011 IV. Limiting conventional arms to promote military security: the case of conventional arms control in Europe HANS-JOACHIM SCHMIDT AND WOLFGANG ZELLNER The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in EuropeSubregional arms control in South Eastern EuropeProspects and challenges V. Condence- and security-building measures HANS-JOACHIM SCHMIDT AND WOLFGANG ZELLNER Condence building in South AmericaRevision of the Vienna DocumentBlockade of the Open Skies Consultative Commission 447 439 442 431

Annexes
Annex A. Arms control and disarmament agreements
NENNE BODELL

455 456 472 482 487 487 494 505 509 525 533 534

I. Universal treaties II. Regional treaties III. Bilateral treaties Annex B. International security cooperation bodies
NENNE BODELL

I. Bodies with a global focus or membership II. Bodies with a regional focus or membership III. Strategic trade control regimes Annex C. Chronology 2011
NENNE BODELL

About the authors Errata Index