Chris Bidwells* answers to Miranda Kennedys questions

1) In your opinion, what were the long term impacts of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)? The NPT has been around for over 35 years. In 1962 President Kennedy was shown a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) indicating that at least 21 new countries where in various stages of accruing The Bomb with the prognosis being for more to come. Thus the need for mechanism to limit the spread of nuclear weapons was pressing. A few years later the NPT was signed and came into being. Since then, only 5 new countries [Pakistan, India, South Africa (later dismantled), Israel and North Korea] have joined what is colloquially known as the nuclear club. This is a pretty good record all things considered. The NPT represents a Grand Bargain between nation states. Because of the transparency of provided through the NPTs main enforcement mechanism, the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA), most countries have insight into their neighbors peaceful nuclear power programs. Continued surveillance and inspections by the IAEA ensures countries that their neighbors are not engaging in, or hiding, nuclear weapons development. This arrangement effectively limits the number of outliers (violators), such as Iran and North Korea, that need to be more heavily scrutinized and sanctioned. 2) Regarding one of the 3 pillars of the NPT, do you think it is possible for the world to achieve complete disarmament? No. As long as the knowledge of how to build them exists most countries that possess them will continue to do so, albeit with smaller numbers. The good news here being that most of the Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) have shrunk their stockpiles keeping just enough to act as an insurance policy, or weapon of last resort. While perhaps not as desirable as disarmament this development reduces the likelihood that they will ever be used. 3) Why haven't all of the countries in the world signed the Treaty? Countries decide to join or not join for a whole host of reasons related to their own sense of their security needs. In many cases, such as Pakistan and India, their neighbors or enemies have them. In other cases enemy neighbors may have a pact with another powerful nation (like the U.S) that possess NWs and is responsible for guaranteeing that nations security. An example of this would be found in the relationship of North Korea and its neighbors South Korea and Japan. 4) Did the NPT improve relations between the U.S. and the Treaty's signatories? Did it make relations worse between the U.S. and non-signatories? If so, how The NPT has improved the signatories relations with the U.S. in most cases. One of the main reasons why is that the U.S. expends its leadership capacity, diplomatic capital and in some cases

military might, in enforcing the first two pillars of the NPT across the globe. The NPT is an economic bargain for many signatories in that they dont have to invest in expensive nuclear infrastructures to ensure their nations security. The Grand Bargain makes this possible and most nations realize that the U.S. is one of the main guarantors of the NPT Grand Bargain. The fact that the agreement has generally held together for so many years is a testament to how seriously other nations have interpreted the United States heavy investment in the NPTs success.

*Note: the options expressed here are that of the author and do not reflect the policies og the Federation of American Scientists or the authors former employers.